We value your privacy
Brexit (the UK's exit from the European Union) will have important repercussions for the agri-food trade of developing countries because of the UK's size (it is the sixth largest economy in the world) and its important role as an importer of agri-food products (it accounts for 12% of the EU's imports from developing countries). These effects will occur through a variety of different channels: the consequences of higher trade costs on UK-EU27 trade; possible changes in future UK tariff and trade policy after Brexit; possible changes in UK and EU27 agricultural policy; impacts on UK agricultural production capacity; and macroeconomic channels such as changes in future UK economic growth and the value of sterling. This paper reviews the potential significance of these changes, and makes recommendations as to how developing countries might respond to these changes. JEL: F13, F63, Q17
All content in this area was uploaded by Alan Matthews on Mar 29, 2018
Content may be subject to copyright.
A preview of the PDF is not available
... Indeed, a 'soft Brexit' (where the UK continues to be a member of the EU Single Market like other non-EU members of the European Economic Area) will lead to smaller increases in trade barriers between the UK and the EU whereas a 'hard Brexit' (where the UK trades with the EU only under the World Trade Organization) will lead to higher barriers , thus creating stronger incentives to look for alternative partners outside the European boundaries. In any case, due to the Brexit, the UK's trade flows of goods are expected to be substantially changed [35,36]. In this potential new context, the emissions flows from and to the UK are also expected to be altered along with its emissions responsibility as computed according to a CBA approach, which highly depends on the emissions embodied in trade . ...
International trade shifts production of a large amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions embodied in traded goods from the importing country to the exporting country. The European Union (EU) plays a prominent role in the flow of international-related emissions as it accounts for the second largest share of global exports and imports of goods. Consumption-based accountings (CBA) emerged as alternative to the traditional emission inventories based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. According to the IPCC criteria, countries where products are consumed take no responsibility for the emissions produced by exporter countries, thus neglecting the emissions embodied in trade. By taking this aspect into account, CBA are considered of great importance in revealing emissions attributed to the final consumer. Using a CBA approach, this paper evaluates the impact of international trade in the EU in terms of CO2 emissions, looking both at the internal trade flows within the EU-28 and at the external trade flows between the EU and the rest of the world during the period 2012–2015. We find that the EU is a net importer of emissions as its emissions due to consumption exceed those due to production. In particular, in 2015 the ratio between import- and export-embodied emissions was more than 3:1 for the EU-28 that imported 1317 Mt CO2 from the rest of the world (mainly from China and Russia) while exporting only 424 Mt CO2. Concerning emissions flows among EU countries, Germany represents the largest importer, followed by the UK. To get a deeper understanding on possible environmental implications of Brexit on UK emission responsibilities, the paper also advances a few hypotheses on how trade flows could change based on the existing trade patterns of the UK. Data analysis shows that a 10% shift of UK imports from EU partners to its main non-EU trading partners (India, China, and US) would increase its emission responsibility by 5%. The increase in UK emission responsibility would more than double (+11%) in case of a 30% shift of UK imports. Similar results would apply if UK replaced its current EU partners with its main Commonwealth trading partners as a result of Brexit.
Will Brexit Harm UK and Global Wine Markets? Briefing Paper 9
Anderson, K., and G. Wittwer. 2017. Will Brexit Harm UK and Global Wine Markets? Briefing Paper 9.
University of Sussex: UK Trade Policy Observatory.
Research for AGRI Committee-EU-UK Agricultural Trade: State of Play and Possible Impacts of Brexit. Brussels: European Parliament, Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies
Bellora, C., C. Emlinger, J. Fouré, and H. Guimbard. 2017. Research for AGRI Committee-EU-UK
Agricultural Trade: State of Play and Possible Impacts of Brexit. Brussels: European Parliament,
Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies.
European Commission. 2017. The Future of Food and Farming
European Commission. 2017. The Future of Food and Farming. COM(2017) 713. Brussels.
Grandfathering: What Appears Bilateral Is Trilateral. Briefing Paper 13
Gasiorek, M., and P. Holmes. 2017. Grandfathering: What Appears Bilateral Is Trilateral. Briefing Paper 13.
University of Sussex: UK Trade Policy Observatory.
The analysis in this report quantifies the sectoral impacts on UK agriculture of alternative trade agreements following Brexit using a partial equilibrium modelling framework; the FAPRI-UK model in combination with the FAPRI-EU model (GOLD). The modelling system captures the impacts on commodity markets as a result of changes in trade flows with the EU and the rest of the world. It has been substantially updated to account for the fact that in the case of Brexit the UK and EU markets would no longer be fully integrated. In this study we examine three Brexit trade scenarios:
• Bespoke Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU;
• World Trade Organisation (WTO) default Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs; and
• Unilateral Trade Liberalisation.
This article examines the implications of a possible Brexit for the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy and agri-food sector. Five potential ways in which these implications might be felt are discussed: (1) implications for the future orientation of the CAP in the absence of the UK; (2) implications for the EU budget and the share devoted to the CAP; (3) implications for the future regulatory environment for EU farm and food businesses; (4) implications for agricultural research; and (5) implications for future EU trade and trade relationships. Because the UK is a net contributor to the EU budget, a net importer of agri-food products from the EU, and punches above its weight in research terms, its withdrawal would have broadly negative effects for the EU farm and food sector. Whether the absence of the UK’s voice in the Council of Ministers when discussing future agricultural, trade and regulatory policies would be counted as positive or negative depends on one’s policy preferences in these areas. For those advocating a market-oriented agricultural policy and a regulatory regime strongly anchored in science its withdrawal would be a loss.
This report offers quantification of effects of possible trade and agricultural support scenarios on the UK agricultural production, trade, farm gate prices and farmers’ income levels in case of the UK leaving the EU. The results of each scenario show that for most sectors the biggest driver of UK farm income changes is the level of public support payments available. The positive price impacts on farm incomes seen through both the FTA and WTO default scenario are offset by the loss of direct support payments. A reduction of direct payments, or their complete elimination, would exacerbate the negative impact seen under the UK Trade Liberalisation scenario.
This paper provides an introduction to the basics of European Union (EU) imports, tariffs, and tariff regimes. Firstly, it describes the inherent complexities in the EU tariff schedule and outlines the approach taken for aggregating EU tariff's from the ten-digit level to a lower level of aggregation. Secondly, the paper presents the distribution of EU imports by main partners and broad product groups under the four different statistical import regimes and highlights the importance of which statistical regime a product is classified under. Thirdly, based on a simplified classification, the paper explains the methodology behind the merger of tariff data and trade flows used to provide information on the distribution of EU import flows by import tariff regime (Most Favoured Nation (MFN), Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), and other preferential regimes. Finally, an overview of EU imports by tariff regime is presented and commented upon.
This text was originally published in 1950 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It sets the framework for the contemporary debate over the benefits or otherwise of preferential trading agreements such as the European Union, NAFTA, and APEC. The book developed the concepts of trade creation and diversion in this work as the author pioneered the analysis of the global politics of trade agreements. This revival of this classic work includes an introduction that places this book in the context of the author's intellectual development and the economic and political situation of the post-WWII world. The introduction also traces the reception of the work and discusses its continuing relevance for international economists, political scientists, and historians.