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Phanerozoic Temperatures: Tropical Mean Annual Temperature (TMAT), Polar Mean Annual Temperature (PMAT), and Global Mean Annual Temperature (GMAT) for the last 540 million years

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Abstract

This presentation was made at the Earth's Temperature History Research Workshop, Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, March 30 & 31, Washington, D.C. It describes how the Earth's temperature has changed during the last 540 million years and reviews how this estimate of past climates was made.
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... Proxy-based reconstructions of global mean temperature and CO₂ concentration during the Phanerozoic Eon. The temperature reconstruction by Scotese [33] was mainly based on proxies from [34][35][36], while the CO₂ concentration proxies have been taken from Davis [37], Berner [38], and Ekart et al. [39]; all original figures were digitized in this study. Figure 3. Proxy-based reconstructions of global mean temperature and CO 2 concentration during the Phanerozoic. ...
... Figure 3. Proxy-based reconstructions of global mean temperature and CO 2 concentration during the Phanerozoic. The temperature reconstruction by Scotese [33] was mainly based on proxies from [21,[34][35][36], while the CO 2 concentration proxies have been taken from Davis [37], Berner [38], and Ekart et al. [39]; Since palaeoclimatic data suggest a direction opposite to that assumed by Arrhenius, Koutsoyiannis [30], using palaeoclimatic data from the Vostok ice cores at a time resolution of 1000 years and a stochastic framework similar to that of the present study (see Section 4.1), concluded that a change in temperature precedes that of CO₂ by one time step (1000 years), as illustrated in Figure 4. He also noted that this causality condition holds for a wide range of time lags, up to 26,000 years, and, hence, the time lag is positive and most likely real. ...
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It is common knowledge that increasing CO2 concentration plays a major role in enhancement of the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming. The purpose of this study is to complement the conventional and established theory that increased CO2 concentration due to human emissions causes an increase of temperature, by considering the reverse causality. Since increased temperature causes an increase in CO2 concentration, the relationship of atmospheric CO2 and temperature may qualify as belonging to the category of “hen-or-egg” problems, where it is not always clear which of two interrelated events is the cause and which the effect. We examine the relationship of global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at the monthly time step, covering the time interval 1980–2019, in which reliable instrumental measurements are available. While both causality directions exist, the results of our study support the hypothesis that the dominant direction is T → CO2. Changes in CO2 follow changes in T by about six months on a monthly scale, or about one year on an annual scale. We attempt to interpret this mechanism by involving biochemical reactions, as at higher temperatures soil respiration, and hence CO2 emission, are increasing.
... Proxy-based reconstructions of global mean temperature and CO₂ concentration during the Phanerozoic Eon. The temperature reconstruction by Scotese [33] was mainly based on proxies from [34][35][36], while the CO₂ concentration proxies have been taken from Davis [37], Berner [38], and Ekart et al. [39]; all original figures were digitized in this study. Figure 3. Proxy-based reconstructions of global mean temperature and CO 2 concentration during the Phanerozoic. ...
... Figure 3. Proxy-based reconstructions of global mean temperature and CO 2 concentration during the Phanerozoic. The temperature reconstruction by Scotese [33] was mainly based on proxies from [21,[34][35][36], while the CO 2 concentration proxies have been taken from Davis [37], Berner [38], and Ekart et al. [39]; Since palaeoclimatic data suggest a direction opposite to that assumed by Arrhenius, Koutsoyiannis [30], using palaeoclimatic data from the Vostok ice cores at a time resolution of 1000 years and a stochastic framework similar to that of the present study (see Section 4.1), concluded that a change in temperature precedes that of CO₂ by one time step (1000 years), as illustrated in Figure 4. He also noted that this causality condition holds for a wide range of time lags, up to 26,000 years, and, hence, the time lag is positive and most likely real. ...
Article
Full-text available
It is common knowledge that increasing CO 2 concentration plays a major role in enhancement of the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming. The purpose of this study is to complement the conventional and established theory, that increased CO 2 concentration due to human emissions causes an increase in temperature, by considering the reverse causality. Since increased temperature causes an increase in CO 2 concentration, the relationship of atmospheric CO 2 and temperature may qualify as belonging to the category of "hen-or-egg" problems, where it is not always clear which of two interrelated events is the cause and which the effect. We examine the relationship of global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in monthly time steps, covering the time interval 1980-2019 during which reliable instrumental measurements are available. While both causality directions exist, the results of our study support the hypothesis that the dominant direction is T → CO 2. Changes in CO 2 follow changes in T by about six months on a monthly scale, or about one year on an annual scale. We attempt to interpret this mechanism by involving biochemical reactions as at higher temperatures, soil respiration and, hence, CO 2 emissions, are increasing.
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