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Broad-band 3-D physics-based simulation of earthquake-induced wave-field at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (Japan): an all-embracing source-to-site approach.
Abstract
The influence of the regional 3-D geology on the synthetic earthquake ground motion prediction is herein assessed, studying the seismic response of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant (KKNPP), during the 2007 Niigata seismic sequence (west Japan), so to explore the potentiality and practicability of the innovative computational tools available. This applicative case study was chosen within the framework of the SINAPS@ project, the first French research project which aims to propose a continuous approach from the fault to the structure and equipment's, accounting explicitly for the uncertainties related to the databases and the models. A source-to-site numerical model of the region (≈ 60 km wide) is built-up and calibrated for small aftershocks including surface topography, Japan sea and complex 3-D underground foldings. The impact of complex 3-D geology in terms of seismic response at KKNPP is quantified, by comparison with the simplified transverse isotropic geology. This validation stresses the importance of the 3-D geology and explicates the observed high ground motion spatial variability, as well as the strong dependence of the site response on the incident wave obliquity. The synthetic wave-field (0-5 Hz) is obtained by employing SEM3D, a high-scalable software tailored based on the Spectral Element Method. This high-fidelity code performs efficiently (thanks to its high scalability on parallel supercomputers) when refining the model spatial discretization and increasing the bedrock-to-sediment shear wave velocity gradient. The synthetic wave-motion simulated was exploited as input motion for a Soil-Structure Interaction numerical model (Finite Element Method-Boundary Element Method, Code_Aster-MISS3D) of the standard reactor building at KKNPP. The impact of the 3-D geology is assessed therefore on the structural components, highlighting a considerable amplification compared to the case of layered one.
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The increasing interest in performance-based earthquake engineering has promoted research on the improvement of hazard-consistent seismic input definition and on advanced criteria for strong motion record selection to perform nonlinear time history analyses. Within the ongoing research activities to improve the representation of seismic actions and to develop tools as a support for engineering practice, this study addresses the selection of displacement-spectrum-compatible real ground motions, with special reference to Italy. This involved (1) the definition of specific target displacement spectra for Italian sites, constrained-both at long and short periods-by results of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses; (2) the compilation of a high-quality strong ground motion database; and (3) the development of a software tool for computer-aided displacement-based record selection. Application examples show that sets of unscaled, or lightly scaled, accelerograms with limited record-to-record spectral variability can also easily be obtained when a broadband spectral compatibility is required.
Finite difference simulations of seismic wave propagation are performed in the Niigata area, Japan, for the 2007 Mw 6.6 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-Oki earthquake at low frequencies. We test three 3D structural models built independently in various studies. First aftershock simulations are carried out. The model based on 3D tomography yields correct body waves in the near field, but later phases are imperfectly reproduced due to the lack of shallow sediment layers; other models based on various 1D/2D profiles and geological interpretation provide good site responses but generate seismic phases that may be shifted from those actually observed. Next, for the mainshock simulations, we adopt two different finite source models that differ in the near-field ground motion, especially above the fault plane (but under the sea) and then along the coastline. Each model is found to be calibrated differently for the given stations. For engineering purposes, the variations observed in simulated ground motion are significant, but for seismological purposes, additional parameter calibrations would be possible for such a complex 3D case.
Records of the Niigata Chuetsu-Oki earthquake (July, 16, 2007, M
w = 6.6, depth ~17 km) and its aftershocks from seismic vertical arrays deployed at the territory of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant (~15 km from the fault) are used to study the soil behavior down to ~250 m during strong ground motion. Nonlinear models of soil behavior during the main shock and six aftershocks are constructed, and stresses and strains induced by the strong motion in the soil layers at various depths are estimated. The data are processed using the method developed by Pavlenko and Irikura (Bull Seismol Soc Am 96(6): 2131–2145, 2003) and previously applied for studying the soil behavior in near-fault zones during the 1995 Kobe and 2000 Tottori earthquakes. A rather good agreement between the recorded and simulated acceleration time histories testifies to the validity of the obtained vertical distributions of stresses and strains in soil layers. In the upper, softer layers (~45 m) at the territory of the plant, the shear moduli were reduced by ~30–35% during the main shock and by ~1.5–3% during the aftershocks. The constructed models of soil behavior can be used in scenario earthquake shaking maps of Japan where, based on source modeling parameters, the level of strong motion can be evaluated for the territory of the power plant in future earthquakes with various magnitudes and fault planes. Using methods of stochastic finite-fault modeling of ground motions from the Chuetsu-Oki earthquake, we estimated input motion to the soil layers during the main shock and found that it differs from the imposed motion (recorded by the deepest sensor of the vertical array) by slightly decreased (by a factor of ~1.2) low-frequency (f < 10 Hz) spectral components.
This article presents the verification of a spectral-element method (SEM) code using the so-called layer over half-space 3 (LOH.3) benchmark model of the Southern California Earthquake Center to 7 Hz with a minimum S-wave velocity of 2000 m/s. First, the approach of Liu and Archuleta (2006) is successfully implemented in an explicit SEM, then, it is shown that the SEM code displays excellent goodness of fits (GOFs) with five Gauss–Lobatto–Legendre (GLL) nodes per wavelength at 7 Hz. A parametric study on the influence of the number of GLL nodes per wavelength shows that more than five GLL nodes per minimum wavelength do not significantly increase the accuracy; however, a decrease of the accuracy starts to be seen from four GLL nodes. A parametric study of the influence of the number of relaxation mechanism on the accuracy of the numerical response shows that, for this specific case, six to eight relaxation mechanisms are sufficient to reproduce the reference solution, whereas below six the viscoelastic response is strongly affected and tends to an elastic response when using two relaxation mechanisms only.
Perfectly matched layers (PMLs) provide an exponential decay, independent of the frequency, of any propagating field along an assigned direction without producing spurious reflections at the interface with the elastic volume. For this reason PMLs have been applied as absorbing boundary conditions (ABCs) and their efficiency in attenuating outgoing wave fields on the outskirts of numerical grids is more and more recognized. However, PMLs are designed for first-order differential equations and a natural extension to second-order Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) involves either additional variables in the time evolution scheme or convolutional operations. Both techniques are computationally expensive when implemented in a spectral element (SE) code and other ABCs (e.g. paraxial or standard sponge methods) still remain more attractive than PMLs.
Here, an efficient second-order implementation of PMLs for SE is developed from interpreting the Newmark scheme as a time-staggered velocity–stress algorithm. The discrete equivalence with the standard scheme is based on an L2 approximation of the stress field, with the same polynomial order as the velocity. In this case, PMLs can be introduced as for first-order equations preserving the natural second-order time stepping. Subsequently, a non-classical frequency-dependent perfectly matched layer is introduced by moving the pole of the stretching along the imaginary axis. In this case, the absorption depends on the frequency and the layer switches from a transparent behaviour at low frequencies to a uniform absorption as the frequency goes to infinity. It turns out to be more efficient than classical PMLs in the absorption of the incident waves, as the grazing incidence approaches, at the cost of a memory variable for any split component. Finally, an extension of PMLs to general curvilinear coordinates is proposed.
The spectral element method, which provides an accurate solution of the elastodynamic problem in heterogeneous media, is implemented in a code, called RegSEM, to compute seismic wave propagation at the regional scale. By regional scale we here mean distances ranging from about 1 km (local scale) to 90° (continental scale). The advantage of RegSEM resides in its ability to accurately take into account 3-D discontinuities such as the sediment-rock interface and the Moho. For this purpose, one version of the code handles local unstructured meshes and another version manages continental structured meshes. The wave equation can be solved in any velocity model, including anisotropy and intrinsic attenuation in the continental version. To validate the code, results from RegSEM are compared to analytical and semi-analytical solutions available in simple cases (e.g. explosion in PREM, plane wave in a hemispherical basin). In addition, realistic simulations of an earthquake in different tomographic models of Europe are performed. All these simulations show the great flexibility of the code and point out the large influence of the shallow layers on the propagation of seismic waves at the regional scale.
RegSEM is written in Fortran 90 but it also contains a couple of C routines. It is an open-source software which runs on distributed memory architectures. It can give rise to interesting applications, such as testing regional tomographic models, developing tomography using either passive (i.e. noise correlations) or active (i.e. earthquakes) data, or improving our knowledge on effects linked with sedimentary basins.
The Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake occurred on July 16, 2007. To understand the mechanism of earthquake gen-eration, it is important to obtain a detailed seismic activity. Since the source region of the 2007 Chuetsu-oki Earthquake lies mainly offshore of Chuetsu region, a central part of Niigata Prefecture, it is difficult to estimate the geometry of faults using only the land seismic network data. A precise aftershock distribution is essential to determine the fault geometry of the mainshock. To obtain the detailed aftershock distribution of the 2007 Chuetsu-oki Earthquake, 32 Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBSs) were deployed from July 25 to August 28 in and around the source region of the mainshock. In addition, a seismic survey using airguns and OBSs was carried out during the observation to obtain a seismic velocity structure below the observation area for precise hypocenter determination. Seven hundred and four aftershocks were recorded with high spatial resolution during the obser-vation period using OBSs, temporally installed land seismic stations, and telemetered seismic land stations and were located using the double-difference method. Most of the aftershocks occurred in a depth range of 6–15 km, which corresponds to the 6-km/s layer. From the depth distribution of the hypocenters, the aftershocks occurred along a plane dipping to the southeast in the whole aftershock region. The dip angle of this plane is approximately 40 • . This single plane with a dip to the southeast is considered to represent the fault plane of the mainshock. The regions where few aftershocks occurred are related to the asperities where large slip is estimated from the data of the mainshock. The OBS observation is indispensable to determine the precise depths of events which occur in offshore regions even close to a coast.
In this study, a numerical investigation is performed on a realistic source-to-site earthquake scenario, with the aim to assess the role of complex three-dimensional (3-D) geological structures on the predicted wave-field. With this respect, the paper pointedly targets the seismic response of nuclear power plants in near-field conditions and the verification of some simplified assumptions commonly adopted for earthquake ground motion prediction and site effects analysis. To this purpose, the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (Japan) is assumed as reference case-study. In 2007, the nuclear site and its surroundings were struck by the Niigata-Ken Chuetsu-Oki seismic sequence, which caused some of the peak ground motion design limits to be largely overpassed. The dense observation network deployed at the site recorded a highly incoherent and impulsive earthquake ground motion. Many studies argued that the intricate syncline-anticline geology lying underneath the nuclear facility was highly responsible of the observed seismic response. Therefore, a physics-based numerical model of the epicentral area is built-up (≈ 60 km wide) and tested for small aftershocks, so to discount the effect of 19 extended source on the synthetic site-response. The numerical model (based on the Spectral Element Method) reproduces the source-to-site wave propagation by embracing the effects of the surface topography along with the presence of the Japan Sea (i.e. the bathymetry, the coastline and the fluid-solid interaction). Broad-band (0-5 Hz) synthetic wave-forms are obtained for two different aftershocks, located at the two opposite sides of the nuclear facility, aiming to assess the influence of the incidence angle the radiated wave field impinges the foldings beneath it. The effect of the folding presence is assessed by comparing it to a sub-horizontally layered geology, in terms of numerical outcome, and by highlighting the differences with respect to the observations. The presence of an intricate geology effectively unveils the reason behind the observed ground motion spatial variability within a relatively small area, stressing its crucial role to properly reproduce the modification the wave-field undergoes during its propagation path towards the surface. The accuracy of the numerical exercise is discussed along with its results, to show the high-fidelity of these deterministic earthquake ground motion predictions.
The aim of this paper is to clarify the extent of near-
source effects and non-linear soil response that took place at
the Japanese nuclear site of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa (KK),
during the MW6.6 Niigata-Ken Chūetsu-Oki earthquake
(July, 16th 2007). The interest of this case study stems from
the relative small source-to-site distance and shallow
hypocenter depth, coupled with the consistent seismic
record database available from two down-hole arrays of
strong motion accelerometers, installed within the nuclear
site. Records were processed first to highlight those features
related to near-source conditions, such as directivity and
polarization, and, subsequently, to identify dependence of
site response on the direction of motion and on the non-
linear soil behaviour. Moreover, borehole interferometry
was used to check the two available velocity profiles
(estimated by in situ PS logging) used for 1D linear
equivalent numerical simulations. In one case, an improved
agreement with the empirical amplification functions was
obtained using a smoothed profile. The main non-linear
features highlighted by signal processing were globally
reproduced by means of linear-equivalent analyses, that
pointed out the strong influence of the input motion
direction. Among the principal results of this research, it
was found that the hanging-wall and directivity effects
along with the non-linear site-effects dominate the ground
response during the main shock, and that the site
amplification features are strongly dependent on the rotation
angle of the horizontal components.
The Tohoku earthquake and associated tsunami in March 2011 caused a severe nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, where level 7 (International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - INES scale) meltdown at three reactors occurred. The underestimation of the seismic and tsunami hazards has been recognized and the seismic margins assessment of the nuclear plants remains a priority for the whole nuclear community. In this framework a five-year research project called SINAPS@ (Earthquake and Nuclear Installations: Ensuring and Sustaining Safety) is currently on-going in France. A reliable estimate of seismic margins is possible only if all uncertainties, epistemic and aleatory, are effectively identified, quantified and integrated in the seismic risk analysis. SINAPS@ brings together a multidisciplinary community of researchers and engineers from the academic and the nuclear world. SINAPS@ aims at exploring the uncertainties associated to databases, physical processes and methods used at each stage of seismic hazard, site effects, soil and structure interaction, structural and nuclear components vulnerability assessments, in a safety approach: the main objective is ultimately to identify the sources of potential seismic margins resulting from assumptions or when selecting the seismic design level or the design strategy. The whole project is built around an "integrating" work package enabling to test state-of-the-art practices and to challenge new methodologies for seismic risk assessment: the real case of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Japanese nuclear plant, shocked by the severe earthquake in 2007 provided a rich dataset which will be used to compare with the predictions. The present paper proposes for each step of the seismic risk analysis a review of the state of practice in France in the nuclear field and then precise the objectives and research strategy of SINAPS@ to overcome identified limitations or weaknesses. Scientific issues are illustrated through preliminary results of the project.
Readily available interferometric data (InSAR) of the coseismic deformation field caused by recent seismic events clearly show that major earthquakes produce crustal deformation over wide areas, possibly resulting in significant stress loading/unloading of the crust. Such stress must be considered in the evaluation of seismic hazards of nuclear power plants (NPP) and, in particular, for the potential of surface slip (i.e., probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis - PFDHA) on both primary and distributed faults.
Stimulated by the recent advances in computational tools for the simulation of seismic wave propagation problems in realistic geological configurations, this paper presents a 3D physicsbased numerical analysis of near-source ground motion during the MW 6.0 2012 May 29 earthquake in the Po Plain, Northern Italy. To reproduce with sufficient accuracy some of the most peculiar features of the near-source strong-motion records and of the spatial variability of damage distribution, this study required a sequence of investigations, starting from the analysis of a wide set of near-source records, to the calibration of an improved kinematic seismic source model, up to the development of a 3D numerical model of the portion of the Po Plain interested by the earthquake. The latter includes the basin geometry, characterized by sediment thickness sharply varying from few tens of metres to some kilometres. The spatial resolution of the numerical model is suitable to propagate frequencies up to about 1.5 Hz. Numerical simulations were performed using the open-source high-performance code SPEED, based on the Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Elements method. The 3D numerical model, coupled with the updated slip distribution along the rupturing fault, proved successful to reproduce with good agreement, measured through quantitative goodness-of-fit criteria, the most relevant features of the observed ground motion. These include: (i) the large fault normal velocity peaks at the near-source stations driven by updip directivity effects; (ii) the small-scale variability at short distance from the source, resulting in the out-of-phase motion at stations separated by only 3 km distance; (iii) the propagation of prominent trains of surface waves, especially in the Northern direction; (iv) the map of earthquake-induced ground uplift with maximum values of about 10 cm, in substantial agreement with geodetic measurements and (v) the two-lobed pattern of the peak ground velocity map, well correlated with the distribution of macroseismic intensity.
Dynamic interaction problems between two subdomains lead in time to convolution integrals on the interface when one (linear) subdomain is modelled by an impedance operator and the other exhibits non-linear behaviour. In the present work, a convolution quadrature method is used to address a Laplace transform-based approach to evaluate these convolution products. Its properties are discussed on some numerical soil-structure interaction applications: one that is fully linear and the other showing material non-linearities.
Strong motion records of 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake were examined in order to evaluate ground motion characteristics of the earthquake. Ground motions observed at Kashiwazaki Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant site were significantly larger than the response spectra evaluated on the basis of Noda et al. (2002), and the level of the ground motion observed at Arahama area (unit 1 - 4 side) was approximately twice as large as that at Ominato area (unit 5 - 7 side). Observation records of the offshore events other than the eathquake were also larger than the response spectra based on Noda et al. (2002), whereas records of the inland events were smaller than those. In addition, these characteristics were also observed in the vicinity of the site through the analysis of the ground motion records obtained by KiK-net.
A numerical study on the 2009 M-w 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake is here presented using a high-performance spectral element (SE) code to clarify the issues regarding the generation of physics-based deterministic ground-motion scenarios in near-fault conditions and over a broad range of frequencies. Numerical simulations provide reliable ground-motion scenarios up to about 2.5 Hz in the epicentral region of the L'Aquila earthquake, as confirmed by the good agreement between the simulated peak ground velocity (PGV) wave field and the observed distribution of damage. Moreover, the synthetic waveforms fit reasonably well the strong-motion recordings within the town of L'Aquila and the surrounding areas. Nevertheless, some discrepancies are found in the upper Aterno Valley, associated to a considerable extent with the details of the rupture process. Improvements on the source modeling are obtained through the definition of stochastically (but realistically) varying kinematic source parameters that may play a relevant role in propagating high-frequency (HF) components of ground motion, poorly controlled by numerical approaches. Finally, the proposed hybrid scheme to generate broadband (BB) synthetic waveforms, by combining the low-frequency (LF) synthetics from SE simulations (f < 2.5 Hz) with HF stochastic components, appears as a powerful tool to generate ground-shaking scenarios over the whole frequency range of interest for engineering applications.
Existing spectral-matching techniques in the frequency domain distort the displacement time history of the ground motions. In the time domain spectral-matching procedures, scale functions (wavelets) are additive and, with an appropriate scale functional form, extra displacement will not be imposed to the record. However, matching in the frequency domain with a multiplicative scale function applied to the Fourier spectrum requires a special attention in the matching process to have control on the displacement time history. This study shows that the velocity value at the end of the record is not affected by the Fourier amplitude spectrum scaling, but the displacement may linearly increase (or decrease) boundlessly. Two numerical solutions are proposed to solve the displacement drift problem in the frequency domain. Following the proposed frequency domain baseline correction procedure, one does not need to perform baseline correction in the time domain after completing the spectral matching. As a result, acceleration, velocity, and displacement time histories will remain fully compatible, and the boundary conditions of the velocity and displacement time histories will be preserved. The proposed procedure is not limited to spectral-matching methods and can be used with any general filtering process to retain the final displacement of the record. The possibility of applying a zero-padding technique to the spectral-matching filter is also discussed. It is shown that applying an appropriate window along with the zero-padding technique can lead to a reasonable displacement time history. The proposed procedures can be easily added to the existing or new frequency domain spectral-matching algorithms without significantly disrupting the spectral-matching process.
In finite-fault modeling of earthquake ground motions, a large fault is divided into N subfaults, where each subfault is considered as a small point source. The ground motions contributed by each subfault can be calculated by the stochastic point-source method and then summed at the observation point, with a proper time delay, to obtain the ground motion from the entire fault. A new variation of this approach is introduced based on a "dynamic corner frequency." In this model, the corner frequency is a function of time, and the rupture history controls the frequency content of the simulated time series of each subfault. The rupture begins with a high corner frequency and progresses to lower corner frequencies as the ruptured area grows. Limiting the number of active subfaults in the calculation of dynamic corner frequency can control the amplitude of lower frequencies. Our dynamic corner frequency approach has several advantages over previous formulations of the stochastic finite-fault method, including conservation of radiated energy at high frequencies regardless of subfault size, application to a broader mag-nitude range, and control of the relative amplitude of higher versus lower frequencies. The model parameters of the new approach are calibrated by finding the best overall fit to a ground-motion database from 27 well-recorded earthquakes in California. The lowest average residuals are obtained for a dynamic corner frequency model with a stress drop of 60 bars and with 25% of the fault actively slipping at any time in the rupture. As an additional tool to allow the stochastic modeling to generate the impulsive long-period velocity pulses that can be caused by forward directivity of the source, the analytical approach proposed by Mavroeidis and Papageorgiou (2003) has been included in our program. This novel mathematical model of near-fault ground mo-tions is based on a few additional input parameters that have an unambiguous physi-cal meaning; the method has been shown by Mavroeidis and Papageorgiou to sim-ulate the entire set of available near-fault displacement and velocity records, as well as the corresponding deformation, velocity, and acceleration response spectra. The inclusion of this analytical model of long-period pulses substantially increases the power of the stochastic finite-fault simulation method to model broadband time his-tories over a wide range of distances, magnitudes, and frequencies.
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