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Abstract

The production of commodities by energy-intensive industry is responsible for 1/3 of annual global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The climate goal of the Paris Agreement, to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, requires global GHG emissions reach net-zero and probably negative by 2055–2080. Given the average economic lifetime of industrial facilities is 20 years or more, this indicates all new investment must be net-zero emitting by 2035–2060 or be compensated by negative emissions to guarantee GHG-neutrality. We argue, based on a sample portfolio of emerging and near-commercial technologies for each sector (largely based on zero carbon electricity & heat sources, biomass and carbon capture, and catalogued in an accompanying database), that reducing energy-intensive industrial GHG emissions to Paris Agreement compatible levels may not only be technically possible, but can be achieved with sufficient prioritization and policy effort. We then review policy options to drive innovation and investment in these technologies. From this we synthesize a preliminary integrated strategy for a managed transition with minimum stranded assets, unemployment, and social trauma that recognizes the competitive and globally traded nature of commodity production. The strategy includes: an initial policy commitment followed by a national and sectoral stakeholder driven pathway process to build commitment and identify opportunities based on local zero carbon resources; penetration of near-commercial technologies through increasing valuation of GHG material intensity through GHG pricing or flexible regulations with protection for competitiveness and against carbon leakage; research and demand support for the output of pilot plants, including some combination of guaranteed above-market prices that decline with output and an increasing requirement for low carbon inputs in government procurement; and finally, key supporting institutions.

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... A literature evaluating industrial decarbonization technologies and policies has been emerging over the past few years [5][6][7][8]. Starting with these cross sectoral studies, we use a socio-technical approach to focus on understanding industrial decarbonization via natural gas. ...
... The latter route may open doors to myriad options either in isolation or combined, such as replacing fossil fuels and feedstocks with biomass, synthetic hydrocarbons, or a hybrid of electrification and hydrogen. Industrial symbiosis-where waste products from an industry serve as feedstocks for another industry-can additionally improve efficiency [8]. We explore each of these options further (see Figs. 8 and 9). ...
... The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) project CO 2 savings from CHP and WHP akin to comparably sized solar photovoltaics, wind, and natural gas combined cycle at the same or lower cost. Fig. 8. Generalized energy-intensive industry decarbonization options [8]. ...
Article
Natural gas is an important and highly flexible fuel across the industry sector globally. It provides fuel and energy services for both heat and power, and is also as a key feedstock in many industrial processes. Natural gas-based industrial technologies typically have lower capital costs, operating costs, and electricity consumption than coal-based technologies. These features make natural gas preferable for industrial use as compared to other fossil fuels. However, the future of natural gas remains uncertain, especially for industry planning to be net-zero or carbon neutral by mid-century. This review addresses the role that natural gas might play in global industrial decarbonization, and how it can help decarbonize industrial processes. We undertake a comprehensive and critical review of more than 400 studies on the topic of industrial decarbonization via natural gas. The review also provides evidence of critical barriers that range from financial and infrastructural to geopolitical and governance issues along with promising avenues for future research.
... The British government consider CCUS as being key technologies for securing carbon dioxide mitigation from EI industrial subsectors (see Figure 2; Griffin et al., 2016Griffin et al., , 2018a. Obviously, innovations in capture technologies are likely to occur over the timespan in 2050 (Bataille et al., 2018;Cooper and Hammond, 2018;Griffin et al., 2016Griffin et al., , 2018aLeeson et al., 2017;Wesseling et al., 2017). The development of carbon dioxide transport hubs will require an interlinking of industrial and power station networks for onward storage, typically beneath the North Sea. ...
... Options for producing sustainable hydrogen included 'thermochemical routes' (such as steam methane reforming (SMR) and coal/biomass gasification); biological routes (such as anaerobic digestion, photo fermentation and bioelectrochemical systems); 'electrolytic routes' (such as those utilising an alkaline electrolyser, solid oxide electrolyser and polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyser); and finally, a suite of innovative technologies under the umbrella title 'solar to fuels' (or 'artificial photosynthesis'). Hydrogen-based processing is also favoured by a number of research groups in Northern Europe, although they recognise that it is likely to be expensive (Bataille et al., 2018;Wesseling et al., 2017). The process conventionally used to produce hydrogen is SMR employing NG as the feedstock. ...
Article
In the period since 2010 successive UK Governments have produced various decarbonisation strategies for industry. This article scrutinises the most recent version that was published in March 2021: the Industrial Decarbonisation Strategy (IDS). It contrasts the policy content of the IDS with previous industrial roadmaps, action plans and strategies (including the Clean Growth Strategy of 2017). In addition, it compares the proposals in the IDS with the latest recommendations of the UK Government's independent Climate Change Committee, as well as drawing on lessons learned from the techno-economic assessments published by the author and his collaborators for a number of key ‘Foundation Industries’. The latter emit significant shares of UK industrial carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions: the iron and steel (∼25%), chemicals (∼19%), cement (∼8%), pulp and paper (∼6%), and glass (∼3%) sectors. They also produce some 28 million tonnes of materials per year, which are worth £52 billion to the UK economy, and account for ∼10% of UK total CO 2 emissions.
... These basic materials account for approximately 22% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Bataille, 2019). Technically, it is possible to reduce emissions from these industries to zero but this requires major innovation and investments efforts over a sustained period of time (Bataille et al., 2018). A challenge for policy-making is the national responsibility for implementing climate policy enshrined in the Paris Agreement as opposed to the global nature of the markets that these industries operate on. ...
... The changes necessary for deep decarbonization of EIIs are not about replacing specific technical components but requires technological changes to the very core production processes and will thus be systemic, that is, will require changes to all surrounding systems that support this technology such as infrastructures, regulations and market regimes. All of these options need public support, especially to support RD&D efforts to demonstrate functionality and to reveal the true production cost in the coming 5 to 10 years (Bataille et al., 2018;Napp et al., 2014). The technical options available for a deep decarbonization in industry can be structured as: ...
Chapter
Basic materials are traded globally and responsible for roughly 22 % of global carbon emissions. It is technically possible for the energy intensive industries (EIIs) that produce these materials to reach zero emission, but at a cost. So far, the fear of carbon leakage has been a barrier for implementing ambitious domestic climate policies that targets theses globally traded commodities. The introduction of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) for levelling the global playing field has been suggested to ameliorate these concerns. However, another way is to focus more on innovation, adopting green industrial policies and to cooperate internationally for developing technologies for net zero EIIs. In this chapter we explore the opportunities for enhanced cooperation for enabling deep decarbonisation for EIIs and how that links to BCAs. We argue for establishing a green materials club focussing on long-term technology development and discusses limitation and opportunities for this approach. A green materials club could ease the conflicts between trade and ambitious climate policy and complement BCAs.
... This means that while there are certainly gains to be made in implementing the best available technologies in less advanced plants, eliminating remaining emissions will require massive investments in the development and deployment of new low-carbon innovations for existing industrial systems. While some of the technological and process innovations that form part of these solutions are commercially viable or in pilot stages (Bataille et al. 2018), others still require considerable research and development (Skoczkowski et al. 2020). Below we review technological options to achieve deep decarbonisation in the steel and cement sectors. ...
... Given the high capital intensity and long investment cycles of industrial production sites, there is a window of opportunity at times of major reinvestments, where the choices made can be absolutely decisive for decarbonisation (Bataille et al. 2018;Nill 2003). This issue is relevant at a company level as well as globally. ...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This report focuses on “active engagement”, where investors engage with high-emitting sectors, through companies in which they hold ownership stakes and with the actors to whom they provide debt financing, and place expectations on them to adopt new low-emissions technologies, practices and business models. To engage effectively, investors need to understand: • What high-emitting companies and sectors should be doing to decarbonise production processes or to shift business models; • The policies and other system conditions necessary for companies to succeed with their decarbonisation strategies; and • When sectors and companies can adopt credible transition strategies that investors can support, and when other strategies, such as divestment, are likely to be more impactful. The report provides insights from sustainability experts focused on four high-emitting sectors – steel, cement, agricultural commodities, and oil and gas. In assessments that can be read independently, we highlight what investors need to know about these sectors if they really aim to influence them, including the decarbonisation pathways that appear most promising. Our analysis concludes with a set of broader lessons and questions regarding the role of investors in engaging with climate-intensive sectors. T
... The recent 1.5 °C-compliant scenario by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that steelmaking-related CO2 emissions must be reduced by 91% by 2050 but also as much as 24% already by 2030 [5]. Consequently, due to the typically long investment cycles in the steel industry and the need for drastic process innovation, development and commercialization of near-zero CO2 BF alternatives must occur during the 2020s [6,7]. ...
... DRI carburization will lead to higher top gas temperatures and, thus, higher reducing gas temperatures after internal heat exchange.7 This equation was originally misprinted in paper I. ...
... Barriers due to insufficient exposure to technology for implementing green supply chain practices create a challenging environment for businesses. Bataille (2018) has stated that modifications of the SC require implementation of those specific technologies that are able to use recyclable materials, conserve energy and manufacture high quality products. Li et al. (2015b) also argued that, along with quality, production quantity must also be maintained in order to cater to the demands of the market. ...
Article
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Over the past decade, there has been a constant spotlight on introducing sustainability in the supply chain (SC). The materialistic human greed for production and consumption has led to a radically increased level of greenhouse gases. SC has become its principal contributor. We are addressing this socio-economic environmental challenge by developing a multi-stakeholder framework and focusing on a knowledge-based net zero supply chain, as there are no concrete existing studies that have investigated current state-of-the-art operations in this relevant field. Therefore, this research has been conducted to investigate the drivers, barriers and practices through which net zero economy (NZE) can be attained in a knowledge-based SC. In this regard, the paper conducts an exploratory systematic review of selected articles from peer-reviewed journals. The findings indicate that primary stakeholders (i.e. organisations and suppliers) require to take an active role in bringing about sustainable changes in practice. However, external perspectives (i.e. government, society, consumers and community) have also been identified as sources that create challenges as well as have the potential to aid sustainable industrial practices. Additionally, progress can be enhanced through proper policies, regulations and a knowledge-based conceptual framework to pave the way for a sustainable environment. Proper practices for NZE also provide scope for economic growth through cost-effective production. This paper will be beneficial for practitioners as well as policy makers on a global scale who aim to attain NZE for sustainability.
... Although several authors have successfully approximated the energy savings from campaigns targeted to citizens, the effects of campaigns on companies still remain relatively unexplored. Therefore, both practitioners and academics should approach the assessment of energy savings deriving from information and training campaigns targeted to energy-intensive industries, which still maintain a great potential to contribute to the energy transition required for a sustainable society [5] and to reach the Paris Agreement objectives [53]. A further step of the investigation may assess cost-benefits of energy efficiency information and training campaigns, to evaluate if the ratio between the expenditure incurred and energy saved is better or worse than other policy instruments set to reduce energy consumption. ...
Article
Full-text available
Energy efficiency is a pillar for the energy system transition and for reaching the Sustainable Development Goals. In the light of the “energy efficiency first!” principle, European member states enforce policies to spread energy saving throughout the whole energy chain involving both citizens and industries. In this context, information and training campaigns arise as valuable support tools to disseminate energy efficiency and, therefore, for reducing energy consumption. Although various studies have evaluated the impact of information campaigns targeted to citizens, there is a lack of investigations that assess the impact of campaigns dedicated to industry sectors. This study discusses the results of a survey targeted at energy-intensive Italian companies, with a sample of 300 responses. Starting from the analysis of drivers that trigger the implementation of energy efficiency measures, the paper proposes an approach to evaluate the amount of energy savings linked to the Italian information and training program targeted to industries carried out by the Italian Energy Efficiency Agency. Results show that although information campaigns are not a crucial driver for companies, they are recognized as a factor that contributes to the implementation of energy efficiency practices. Findings show that roughly 1.4% of energy savings noted by interviewed companies to the Italian Energy Efficiency Agency are a direct effect of the information and training program. This outcome has significant implications, especially for decision-makers, giving evidence of the efficacy of information campaigns on industries, which have great potential for the transition to low carbon production systems.
... While being a facilitator of clean energy transition, the ISI is one of the most energy and emission intensive industries across the globe (Ahlström et al., 2020;Bataille et al., 2018). Currently, this industry accounts for 25% of industrial CO 2 emissions and 22% of energy consumption in the industrial sector (Brunke and Blesl, 2014;Llera et al., 2022;Ren et al., 2021). ...
Article
Industrial-environmental management is a multi-objective optimization problem plagued with multiple uncertainties. Most studies only optimize few objectives and often neglect these uncertainties. This study builds a 6-objective optimization problem to quantify energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER) potentials in China's iron and steel industry. First, uncertainties are simulated through 100,000-time random sampling, NSGA-II and the mean-effective objective mechanism are applied to calculate optimal solutions. Finally, a global sensitivity analysis is performed to classify uncertainty parameters based on their impacts on objectives' performance. Results show: (1) There exist significant discrepancies between objectives' performance under certainty and uncertainty. For example, the deterministic CO2 intensity is 1148 kg/t, which is 11.93% lower than its value under uncertainty. Therefore, neglecting uncertainty increases the risk of noncompliance with policy targets as they might be too strict; (2) Two critical uncertainty parameters (steel ratios and technology penetration rates) have the most severe impacts on objectives' performance, hence, reducing their fluctuation can minimize uncertainties when estimating ECER potentials; (3) By-product recycling and energy efficiency measures have good performance in all objectives, thus, should be prioritized. Moreover, from 77-strategies assessed, 11 are identified as key-strategies due to their large ECER effects, hence, should be strongly promoted.
... The CO 2 emissions are regulated within the Energy efficiency regulation (IMO, 2011). However, due to the Paris Agreement and other strategies that promote decarbonization of each sector (Bataille et al., 2018), including the maritime sector, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) set a goal for international shipping to reduce the total annual GHGs by at least 50 % by 2050, compared to 2008 levels (IMO, 2020). The most promising way to accomplish this goal is to replace the conventional ship power system with an alternative one and implementing zero-emissions shipping options. ...
Conference Paper
Environmental regulations and emissions targets are pushing the shipping industry towards the implementation of alternative decarbonization measures. Among them, the application of zero-emission solutions, such as the use of hydrogen and electricity, are highlighted. Although with their implementation, the exhaust gas while the ship is operating is absent, their environmental performance needs to be investigated from the life-cycle point of view. Therefore, the Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) is performed, where the emissions released through the life-cycle of the power system with hydrogen and electricity are investigated and compared to the diesel power system configuration. The comparison indicated that the hydrogen produced through the process of electrolysis (green hydrogen) is the best ecological solution with respect to all investigated emission products, while the second-most environmental friendly zero-emission alternative is the full electrification of a ship with a Lithium-ion battery.
... The CO 2 emissions are regulated within the Energy efficiency regulation (IMO, 2011). However, due to the Paris Agreement and other strategies that promote decarbonization of each sector (Bataille et al., 2018), including the maritime sector, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) set a goal for international shipping to reduce the total annual GHGs by at least 50 % by 2050, compared to 2008 levels (IMO, 2020). The most promising way to accomplish this goal is to replace the conventional ship power system with an alternative one and implementing zero-emissions shipping options. ...
Book
Full-text available
The satellite navigation can no longer be observed on its own. It is represented almost everywhere, with basic and advanced services implemented in all segments of everyday life. The book you have in front of you contains selected papers from the 2021 Baška event, which took place in the period from 10 to 12 May, in Baška on the island of Krk, Croatia. This year’s event had a special connotation for several reasons. After the 2020 corona outbreak and the consequent lockdown, and given that the measures were still globally present, the gathering was held in a hybrid form, using multiple remote communication platforms, combined with in situ attendance. The organisation and realisation of the hybrid event as a whole were challenging, but we believe it was managed smoothly, constructively and to the satisfaction of all participants. In one way or another – shoulder to shoulder, or interacting through screens across the globe. The event comprised two segments. The Annual Baška GNSS Conference, the core event, was held for the fourteenth time, meaning for the fourteenth year in a row. It brought together a range of academic community members, students, professionals and enthusiasts, who presented their research results in the field of satellite navigation, and beyond. The second part was a novelty. For the first time, the Workshop on Smart, Blue and Green Maritime Technologies took place. The vision of the Workshop was (and still is) to enhance current and future navigation applications to a broader research area, with a focus on technologies and solutions for safer, more reliable and greener shipping. The traditional conference concentrated on more application-oriented means and related improvements of existing, as well as the build-up of emerging maritime technologies. During the conference, 22 scientists presented the results of their research. In addition to specialist sections, eight invited lectures were held by world renowned experts and scientists in the field of satellite navigation and new maritime technologies. The event was attended by approximately 70 participants. Virtual discussions were held after each section during both conference and the workshop events. We coined the term ‘virtual coffee break’, which proved to be an excellent way of communication and further networking. The results could already see the light of day in 2022, in the same place, at about the same time. The event was jointly organised by the Royal Institute of Navigation, London, the Faculty of Maritime Studies and Faculty of Engineering of the University of Rijeka, the Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences of the University of Zagreb, and the University of Zadar, Maritime Department. The whole event was held under the high auspices of the European Academy of Sciences and Arts, Salzburg, and the Croatian Academy of Engineering, Zagreb. Perhaps it is needless to say, but we are genuinely proud of the successful realisation of the event, especially nowadays, when scientific conferences have become rarer and even ceased owing to well-known reasons. Our decision on organising the event in the first place, and then holding it ‘live’ (at least partially), proved to be justified, right and necessary as well, given that the spirit of the conference was maintained. It seems that we succeeded, both during the Baška days, as well as here, in presenting the research outputs in a published form. Many people should be given credit for this event, starting with organisers, members of our international and local committees, hotels’ (extra kind) personnel, reviewers, but most of all, the contributors. The authors are the true reason why are you reading this, dear reader. And maybe, next time, it could be you. Editors
... This includes the raw materials to produce PEG, MF resins, epoxy, alkoxide (alkoxysilane), methacrylate and acrylate consolidants. With the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 [23][24][25][26][27][28], many countries and institutions pledged to phase out the use of fossil fuels by 2050. What does this mean for the polymers used regularly in the conservation laboratory? ...
Article
Full-text available
Conserving the world’s cultural and natural heritage is considered a key contributor to achieving the targets set out in the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals, yet how much attention do we pay to the methods we use to conserve and protect this heritage? With a specific focus on wooden objects of cultural heritage, this review discusses the current state-of-the-art in heritage conservation in terms of sustainability, sustainable alternatives to currently used consolidants, and new research directions that could lead to more sustainable consolidants in the future. Within each stage a thorough discussion of the synthesis mechanisms and/or extraction protocols, particularly for bio-based resources is provided, evaluating resource usage and environmental impact. This is intended to give the reader a better understanding of the overall sustainability of each different approach and better evaluate consolidant choices for a more sustainable approach. The challenges facing the development of sustainable consolidants and recent research that is likely to lead to highly sustainable new consolidant strategies in the future are also discussed. This review aims to contribute to the ongoing discussion of sustainable conservation and highlight the role that consolidants play in truly sustainable heritage conservation.
... Heavy industry in general, and the steel industry in particular, face specific technological and economic challenges in this process (Davis et al., 2018). In their broad analysis of several heavy industries, Bataille et al. (2018) differentiate between three main technical strategies to achieve climate neutrality: (1) the use of sustainable biomass; (2) carbon capture and storage (CCS); and (3) the use of renewable electricity. These three technical strategies are complemented by energy and material efficiency strategies to reduce steel use and to increase secondary production aiming at a more circular economy. ...
Article
Full-text available
With the move to a hydrogen-based primary steel production envisioned for the near future in Europe, existing regional industrial clusters loose major assets. Such a restructuring of industries may result in a new geographical distribution of the steel industry and also to another quality of vertical integration at sites. Both implications could turn out as drivers or barriers to invest in new technologies and are thus important in respect to vertical integration of sites and to regional policy. This paper describes an approach to model production stock invest for the steel industries in North-Western Europe. Current spatial structures are reproduced with capacity, technical and energy efficiency data on the level of single facilities like blast furnaces. With the model developed both investments in specific technologies and at specific production sites can be modelled. The model is used to simulate different possible future scenarios. The case with a clear move to hydrogen-based production is compared to a reference scenario without technological shift. The scenarios show that existing trends like movement of production to the coast may be accelerated by the new technology but that sites in the hinterland can also adapt to a hydrogen economy. Possible effects of business cycles or a circular economy on regional value chains are explored with a Monte-Carlo analysis.
... CO 2 is the major Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and an increase in its concentration in the atmosphere causes global warming [6]. Within the scope of the Paris Agreement adopted in 2015 which advocates the reduction of GHGs [7], IMO set a goal of reducing GHG emissions from international shipping by 50% up to 2050 compared to the 2008 levels [8]. In the most recent GHG Study, [9], IMO reported that in 2018 the shipping sector generated 2.89% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, while in 2012 this share was 2.76%. ...
Article
This paper investigates the viability of different fuel cell types in a ship power system, where hydrogen and ammonia are considered as zero-carbon fuels. The identification of alternatives to diesel-powered ships is performed by taking into account the environmental and economic indicators of the considered power systems, determined by Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life-Cycle Cost Assessment (LCCA), and further compared with the existing diesel power systems of three passenger ships operating in Croatian coastal waters. Special attention is paid to fuel origin, where fossil fuels (grey fuel), fossil fuels followed by CO2 capture (blue fuel), and those produced from renewable energy sources (green fuel) are considered. The results of the research indicate that fuel cell systems with grey hydrogen and grey ammonia are not environmentally friendly, while fuel cell systems with the blue and green types of these fuels have a lower impact on the environment than a diesel-powered ship, with a reduction of up to 84% in CO2-eq emissions when green ammonia is used. Regarding profitability, the diesel-powered ship has the lowest total costs, while the second most cost-effective option is the fuel cell system with blue ammonia as fuel with 27%-43% higher costs than a diesel-powered ship, depending on which type of fuel cell is used. Although blue ammonia is a cheaper fuel than diesel fuel, the lifetime costs of the fuel cell power system are affected by relatively high investment costs (fuel cell, battery, cracker, etc.) and equipment replacement costs.
... This also applies to non-clustered heavy industry. Both Chiappinelli et al. (2021) and Bataille et al. (2018) researched policy pathways for deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries; they concluded that in order to accelerate the commercialization of the decarbonization technologies, a mix of precise innovation and market uptake policies along the value chain are needed. This includes prioritizing research into supporting institutions and business models, deployment subsidies (contracts for difference), a carbon price and border protection, all integrated into a comprehensive industrial policy framework aiming at the deep emission reduction goals (Nilsson et al., 2021). ...
Article
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Industrial clusters are considered more resource- and greenhouse gas-efficient than stand-alone industrial plants, but clustering may also act as a barrier to radical changes required for deep greenhouse gas emission reductions. Here we explore how clustering in an energy-intensive chemical industry cluster may influence attainability of the deep emission reduction targets. Chemelot, located in the southeast of the Netherlands, was willing to collaborate and we adopt a qualitative system dynamics approach based on expert interviews and group model building sessions. We found that clustering may hinder reaching deep emission reductions by three reinforcing feedback mechanisms, or ‘traps’, related to: incremental changes; short-term focus; and companies acting alone. The system dynamics analysis also identified potential mechanisms to escape from these traps, notably: (1) increasing cluster autonomy; (2) activating public support; (3) promoting changes in the supply chain; and (4) attracting long-term investors. The findings can inform policymakers on how to steer industrial clusters towards deep emission reductions, and support industrial cluster decision-makers on both internal and external strategies. Key policy insights • Industrial clustering may offer opportunities to accelerate deep greenhouse gas emission reductions, but it could also cause carbon lock-in because of increased physical and organizational interdependency, which favours incremental changes, short-term focus, and solitary actions rather than collective actions, at the cost of deep greenhouse gas emission reductions. • To fully exploit the potential benefits of industrial clustering for greenhouse gas emission reductions, policies need to take into account the causal relations that operate in a self-reinforcing way to lock the cluster into high greenhouse gas emissions, and that can help escape them. • A coordinating authority operating across the cluster is necessary to ensure effective collaboration within a chemical cluster so as to escape carbon lock-in. • Policies addressing emissions along the full value chain (i.e. to include scope 3) might be mutually beneficial with the circularity and low-emission ambitions of the chemical industry.
... In the conditions of rapid scientific and technological progress, the growth in world production, and the growth of energy consumption all over the world, achieving the stated goals requires a revision of energy policies of most developed and developing countries [3][4][5][6][7]. Considering the circular economy (CE) concepts, many countries are developing or already following the programs to transfer the economy to a new sustainable and low-carbon path of its development, attract investments in the development of green technologies, and force polluting enterprises to reduce emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere [8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. ...
Article
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Nowadays, most countries of the world are implementing the transition to the low-carbon economy which implies the need to carry out a full-scale eco-modernization of the energy sector. Green energy may be identified as one of the core concerns of energy sector modernization as it allows a considerable decrease in emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere. Therefore, nuclear and renewable energy may become key areas of global energy development in the near future, which is also in agreement with circular economy concepts. However, public opinion (and other controversial visions/aspects) is one of the barriers to their development. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between attitudes towards nuclear and renewable energy in two countries: a EU country (Italy) and a non-EU country (Russia), considering the level of their development. The authors conducted a survey among residents regarding their attitude towards nuclear and renewable energy, as well as their attitude to the present energy policy. The cluster analysis technique was used to analyze the results. The obtained results confirmed the dependence between the level of development of nuclear and renewable energy and the public attitude towards it. The national energy policy also might influence public opinion on the development of nuclear or renewable energy. The authors identified public attitude as one of the key factors in the development of energy and the achievement of environmental and social sustainability.
... For this purpose, they focused on the hydrogen energy systems. However, they mainly highlighted the high-cost problem of Bataille et al. (2018) also examined the new products for industrial decarbonization. They mainly discussed that technological development provides an opportunity to decrease the costs of these products. ...
Article
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This study aims to find out the significant stages of new product development process for the industrial decarbonization of sustainable economies by using interval type-2 (IT2) fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL). The findings demonstrate that commercialization is the most significant process of new product generation process of industrial decarbonization. Moreover, it is also concluded that with respect to the sub-criteria, cost analysis, and performance evaluation have the highest weights. An effective cost analysis is required in the new product development process. The costs of the product development process can in some cases be much higher than anticipated. This situation eliminates the effectiveness of the newly developed product. In this context, companies need to make the necessary plans for the costs of these new products correctly. On the other hand, it is important to follow the costs in detail during the process. Otherwise, the product that does not provide a cost advantage will not be preferred by industrial companies. This will cause the actions to be taken to reduce carbon emissions to fail.
... Decision tree of decarbonization choices for the iron and steel industry. Source: Authors modification based on the framework in[130]. ...
Article
The iron and steel industry is the largest coal consumer and the most greenhouse gas intensive industry. It consumes about 7% of global energy supply, and conservative estimates report that it is responsible for 7–9% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Decarbonization of the iron and steel industry is thus vital to meet climate change mitigation targets and achieve a sustainable future for the industry. This paper presents a comprehensive and systematic review that considered more than 1.6 million pieces of literature and analyzes in depth a shortlist of 271 studies on the iron and steel industry's decarbonization. Applying a sociotechnical lens that investigates raw materials, iron and steel making processes, steel products making and usage, and waste and recycling, the review identifies the climate footprint of the iron and steel industry. The review also assesses current and emerging practices for decarbonization, identifying 86 potentially transformative technologies. The benefits of decarbonizing the iron and steel industry are considered through energy and carbon savings, financial savings, and other environmental and public health benefits. Barriers to decarbonization are considered across financial, organizational, and behavioral aspects. The review also discusses various financial tools and policy instruments that can help overcome the barriers. Lastly, research gaps are outlined.
... Industry is considered as a hard-to-abate sector [43,44] since many production processes currently depend on fossil fuels as raw material input for chemical reactions or as energy input to achieve high temperatures. Thus, we consider process-specific analyses and develop detailed decarbonization pathways for process heat for iron and steel as well as cement production-the two sectors with the largest energy demand for high temperatures [45,46]. ...
Article
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Fossil fuels cause the most CO2 emissions. For net-zero-2050, both the energy demand must be reduced - for example, by insulating buildings and switching to electromobility - and the remaining energy demand must be covered by renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, biomass or geothermal energy - a complete transformation of the energy system. Scenarios can be used to describe how the future can be shaped under different framework assumptions. This energy scenario shows an exemplary path of conversion to new energy supply technologies to meet a CO2 budget of less than 7 gigatons remaining for Germany. To achieve this, CO2 emissions from the energy system must already be halved by 2030 compared to today. To achieve this, all consumption sectors (households, industry, commerce, transport) as well as the power plant and conversion sector must contribute. The following figures show what a possible transformation could look like for the various consumption sectors.
... The Paris Agreement is an international treaty on climate change, which aims to keep the global temperature rise below 2 • C, in comparison to the pre-industrial level. This aim requires a sharp reduction in GHG emissions in each sector [22,23]. The major source of GHGs, as well other pernicious emissions (e.g., nitrogen oxides (NO X ), sulfur oxides (SO X ), particulate matter (PM), etc.), is fossil fuel combustion [24,25]. ...
Article
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This paper deals with the modular concept in the design of small passenger vessels for the Mediterranean, where the ship is assembled from three virtual modules (hull, power system and superstructure), enabling different vessel characteristics (speed, capacity, environmental performance, habitability, etc.). A set of predefined modules is established based on the investigation of market needs, where the IHS Fairplay database is taken as a reference for ship particulars and power needs, while the set of environmental regulation scenarios and requirements on ship habitability are taken as relevant for the design of ship power systems and superstructure modules, respectively. For the selected hull, a series of computations have been conducted to obtain their resistance and power needs which are further satisfied in the above-described manner. Within the illustrative example, a small passenger vessel with a capacity of 250 passengers is considered, with a detailed description of relevant modules that fit future design requirement scenarios. This approach is aimed at small-scale shipyards with limited research capabilities, who can quickly obtain the preliminary design of the vessel which can be further optimized to the final solution.
... Steelmaking is responsible for around 7% of the global net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Bataille et al., 2018). Approximately 72% of the CO 2 emitted by the steel industry originates from the reduction of iron ore in blast furnaces (BFs), and, although steel is a highly recyclable material, it is expected that a substantial demand for iron ore-based steelmaking will persist up until and beyond 2050 (Philibert, 2017;Material Economics, 2019). ...
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... The additive LMDI-I is performed for the total industry and six main industrial sub-sectors located in each country. The selected sub-sectors are Iron and Steel, Chemical and Petrochemical, Non-metallic Minerals, Machinery, Textiles and Leather and the Paper Pulp and Print sector per the IEA classification, due to involving energy-intensive processes for production(Bataille et al., 2018;Meng et al., 2018) as well as satisfactory data consistency to perform a complete decomposition. ...
Thesis
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The potential relocation of various industrial sectors from China to India and countries of the SE Asian region presents low cost opportunities for manufacturers, but also risks are rising for energy demand and CO2 emissions. A cross-country shift of industrial output presents challenges in accounting, controlling, and defining energy and emissions requirements. This is pronounced for the case of India and SE Asian countries as they experience high economic growth rates, by global standards, and strong coupling between economic growth and energy demand. This thesis locates the existing emissions accounting gaps of India, which acts as a potential host of the Chinese manufacturing activities. It concludes that significant differences are present in the majority of the industrial sectors studied. Indian emissions intensity is double that of China in the iron and steel and triple for the cement industry. The decomposition of selected CO2 drivers exemplifies the added significance of labour productivity and industrial scale in driving industrial emissions. Fuel mix concentration in industrial activities is found to be a requirement for every potential host country, highlighting an urgency for diversification if production is to be sustainable. The results demonstrated by this thesis, show that reporting authorities must reach a methodological consensus for increased efficiency in carbon emissions future policy. Carbon emissions are driven by higher carbon fuel mix intensity in the host countries and higher energy intensity in their industrial activities. This thesis effectively concludes that while industrial relocation could further benefit the host countries in financial terms, it would impose considerable threats to their energy supply security and compliance capacity, with the environmental commitments set by the Paris Agreement.
... Due to the increasingly serious depletion of fossil fuels, greenhouse gas emissions, and global warming, the petrochemical energy crisis and environmental pollution have aroused the deep concern of governments around the world [1][2][3][4]. To overcome these problems, many national governments have formulated detailed policies for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality [5][6][7]. Electrified transportation is considered to be an important development direction to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the transportation section [8][9][10]. ...
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... First, the global accords and agreements that were launched in 2015 prompted new ways and approaches in areas of urban planning aimed at achieving different sets of objectives. For instance, in regard to addressing the challenge of climate change, which had attracted notable interests from different quarters, including calls from youth movements [105], C40 cities [106], Small Island Developing States (SIDS) [107], and others for decarbonisation, technology adoption in cities became inevitable [108,109]. Aspects of smart governance became clear, even in global summits, with participation of 'minority groups' such as youths, Small Island Developing States, and indigenous groups becoming apparent. The issues they raised coincided with what had already been anticipated and captured in documents such as the Paris Agreement [110]. ...
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... Industrial CCS CCS can be applied to a wide range of industrial processes to reduce emissions from both fuel combustion industrial processes such as clinker production. [86][87][88][89][90] TIAM-Grantham represents over 20 different industrial CCS technologies, including options in steel, cement, and chemicals production and onsite generation via gas CHP plants (Table S4). ...
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... Davis et al., 2018) and those that focus on the industrial sector. Several recent papers provide technical options for decarbonizing industry on a global level (Bataille et al., 2018;Rissman et al., 2020) or focused on the U.S. (Whitlock et al., 2020). Thiel and Stark (2021) highlight the importance of deep reductions of industrial emissions to achieve net zero-emissions. ...
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Trade is a key lens to observe the dynamics associated with geopolitics of decarbonisation. For the European Union (EU) in particular, trade is a central element of its external action and decarbonisation agendas. Based on existing literature, this paper scopes the links of geopolitics and decarbonisation in the area of trade, provides illustrative examples, and reflects upon the implications for EU policy makers. We suggest to structure the ways in which geopolitics of decarbonisation affects trade along three dimensions: the substance of trade; the institutions governing it; and the transportation making it possible. In an analogy to chess, we can expect decarbonisation shapes the chess pieces (substance), the rules of how to move the pieces across the board (institutions) as well as the way the pieces get in motion (transportation). Among the challenges this has in store for decision-makers are planning for an uncertain future, finding the right balance of priorities and achieving policy coherence. Therefore, the paper highlights selected entry points for EU policy makers to improve the analysis and to advance policy responses in order to This scoping paper contributes to the geopolitics of decarbonisation work stream of the Mistra Geopolitcs Programme.
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The urgent challenge of reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions has created a growing demand for a more comprehensive understanding of how various technology options can contribute to achieving carbon neutrality. Energy efficiency has long been regarded as a key pathway in this context, but the volume and diversity of efficiency options has resulted in an unclear understanding of their combined impacts. In this study, we present a novel technology-explicit method to estimate the overall abatement potential associated with a comprehensive suite of 115 energy efficiency technologies spanning all relevant sector processes and energy types. By applying our flexible analysis framework to a case study of the Canadian pulp and paper sector, we demonstrate that energy efficiency could be the single largest contributor to achieving a carbon-neutral target for the sector. We find that efficiency can reduce emissions by 4.92 MtCO2e/yr (66%) relative to business-as-usual by 2050 at a weighted average abatement cost of -$162/tCO2e when accounting for capital, operating, maintenance, and energy costs. Abatement at the energy system-wide level is even larger, reaching 6.67 MtCO2e in 2050 when accounting for upstream effects. Adoption of the full suite of efficiency measures could materially improve the competitiveness of the sector by reducing energy and carbon costs. On the whole, our results suggest that proven energy efficiency technologies could be the primary element of a credible low-cost pathway towards achieving a target of carbon neutrality for the pulp and paper sector.
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This integrated assessment modeling research analyzes what Korea's 2050 carbon neutrality would require for the national energy system and the role of the power sector concerning the availability of critical mitigation technologies. Our scenario-based assessment shows that Korea's current policy falls short of what the nation's carbon-neutrality ambition would require. Across all technology scenarios examined in this study, an extensive and rapid energy system transition is imperative, requiring the large-scale deployment of renewables and carbon capture & storage (CCS) early on and negative emission technologies (NETs) by the mid-century. Importantly, the rapid decarbonization of the power sector, along with the rapid electrification of end-uses, seems to be a robust national decarbonization strategy. Furthermore, we contextualize our net-zero scenario results using policy costs, requirements for natural resources, and the expansion rate of zero-carbon technologies. We find that the availability of nuclear power lowers the required expansion rate of renewables and CCS, alleviating any stress on terrestrial and geological systems. By contrast, the limited availability of CCS without nuclear power necessarily demands a very high penetration of renewables and significantly high policy compliance costs, which would decrease the feasibility of achieving the carbon neutrality target.
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Considering increasingly ambitious pledges by countries and various forms of pressure from current international constellations, society, investors, and clients further up the supply chain, the question for companies is not so much whether to take decarbonisation action, but what action and by when. However, determining an ideal mix of measures to apply ‘decarbonisation efficiency’ requires more than knowledge of technically feasible measures and how to combine them to achieve the most economic outcome: In this paper, working in a ‘backcasting’ manner, the author describes seven aspects which heavily influence the composition of an ‘ideal mix’ that executive leadership needs to take a (strategic) position on. Contrary to previous studies, these aspects consider underlying motivations and span across (socio-)economic, technical, regulatory, strategic, corporate culture, and environmental factors and further underline the necessity of clarity of definitions. How these decisions influence the determination of the decarbonisation-efficient ideal mix of measures is further explored by providing concrete examples. Insights into the choices taken by German manufacturers regarding several of these aspects stem from about 850 responses to the ‘Energy Efficiency Index of German Industry’. Knowledge of the status quo, and clarity in definitions, objectives, time frames, and scope are key.
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Environmental regulations are gradually striving to decarbonize short-sea navigation fostering the replacement of the conventional power systems with alternative ones. The electrification of ships has been proposed in the literature as a pathway to zero-emission shipping. Among various alternatives, batteries could ensure full conformity with the tightening emission restrictions. However, appropriate batteries for short-sea navigation need to be investigated, since each battery technology has its own environmental impacts and characteristics such as energy density, number of battery cycles, cost, fast charging ability and safety. The aim of this research is to compare the conventional power system with a diesel engine and alternative power system with a selected battery to identify convenient technology for zero-emission shipping according to the environmental and economic criteria. The Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) and the Life-Cycle Cost Assessment (LCCA) are performed to analyze environmental and economic performance of different powering options. The analysis included ro-ro passenger ships from the Croatian short-sea navigation, highlighting the electrification by a Lithium-ion battery as the most appropriate alternative according to environmental and economic indicators.
Thesis
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Access to energy is fundamental to economic and technological advancement. Hence, the more the world develops, the greater the demand for energy becomes. Evidently, the production and consumption of energy alone account for more than 80% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is broad scientific consensus that efficiency improvements in energy production and consumption must come first on the path to reducing global GHG emissions. As the largest producer and consumer of energy, the industrial sector faces tremendous challenges due to stringent environmental regulations, intense price-based global competition, rising operating costs and rapidly changing economic conditions. Therefore, increasing energy and resource efficiency while improving throughput and asset reliability is a matter of utmost importance. Satisfying such demanding objectives requires an optimal operation, control and monitoring of plant assets and processes. This is one of the main driving forces behind developing digital solutions, methods, and frameworks that can be integrated with old and new industrial automation platforms. The main focus of this dissertation is to investigate frameworks, process models, soft sensors, control optimization, and diagnostic techniques to improve the operation, control, and monitoring of industrial plants and processes. In this thesis, a generic architecture for control optimization, diagnostics, and decision support system, referred to here as a learning system, is proposed. The research is centred around an investigation of different components of the proposed learning system. Two very different case studies, one representing large-scale assets and another representing a fleet of small-scale assets, are considered to demonstrate the genericness of the proposed system architecture. In this thesis, a very energy-intensive chemical pulping process represents the case study of large-scale assets, and a micro gas turbine (MGT) fleet for distributed heat and power generation represent the case study of a fleet of small-scale assets. One of the main challenges in this research arises from the marked differences between the case studies in terms of size, functions, quantity, and structure of the existing automation systems. Typically, only a few pulp digesters are found in a Kraft pulping mill, but there may be hundreds of units in a MGT fleet. The main argument behind the selection of these two case studies is that, if the proposed learning system architecture can be adapted for these significantly different cases, then it can be adapted for many other industrial applications as well. Within the scope of this thesis, mathematical modelling, model adaptation, model predictive control, and diagnostics methods are studied for continuous pulp digesters, whereas mathematical modelling, model adaptation, and diagnostics techniques are explored for the MGT fleet. Due to the naturally varying wood quality, significant residence time, insufficient measurements, and complexity of pulping reactions, modelling and controlling a continuous pulp digester is a challenging task. Moreover, process abnormalities due to non-ideal flow in the digester often occur that considerably affect the pulp quality. Within this dissertation, variation of wood-chip quality is identified as one of the main process disturbances. Thereafter, a feedforward model predictive control (MPC) approach is explored by feedforwarding the lignin content of the wood chips to the controller. The result shows that the disturbance rejection and tracking performance of the feedforward MPC are superior to other alternatives, like Proportional–integral–derivative (PID), MPC, and current industrial control. When it comes to diagnostics, a literature gap is identified in the area of modelling digester faults. Hence, the well-known Purdue model, a widely used dynamic model of the digester, is extended to simulate process faults like screen-clogging, hangups, and channelling. The findings suggest that both hangups and channelling considerably affect the pulp quality at the blowline. The impact of channelling is prominent on reaction temperature compared to hangups, while hangups change the residence time of the wood chips significantly. Subsequently, a hybrid diagnostics scheme for pulp digester, combining a physical model and a Bayesian network (BN), is demonstrated. Overall, the results show that fault type and severity can be estimated with acceptable accuracy even in presence of noise. Enabling remote fleet diagnostics is expected to foster the commercialization of distributed micro-combined heat and power (micro-CHP) generators, i.e., MGTs. Even though the modelling and diagnostics of large-scale gas turbines are well researched, studies targeting MGT are limited. In this thesis, a physical model of a commercial MGT system is developed. Subsequently, a hybrid scheme by combining a physics-based gas path analysis with a data-driven approach is used to enable MGT diagnostics. The proposed scheme was tested by simulating case studies corresponding to single and multiple faults. Furthermore, sensitivity studies are performed for different measurement uncertainties (i.e., sensor noise and bias) to evaluate the robustness of the scheme against measurement uncertainties. The findings show that the proposed diagnostics approach performs satisfactorily even under measurement uncertainties. To sum up, the increased availability of data and higher computing power is fostering the development of accurate process models and algorithms necessary for optimal operation, control, and monitoring of industrial processes. With the emergence of new measurement techniques, it is possible to leverage productivity and quality with tighter control of key process parameters. Additionally, studying the underlying mechanism of process degradation and developing diagnostics methods by incorporating these can lead to significant economic benefits. Having said that, to tap the full potential of these digital solutions, an integrated framework like that presented in this thesis, i.e., a learning system is essential. <*Note: If you want a hard copy of the thesis, please reach out>
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The production and use of cement, the binding agent in concrete, emits seven percent of global greenhouse gas emissions annually. Achieving climate change mitigation targets, such as those proposed in the Paris Agreement, requires emission reductions from this sector. The body of research on technical solutions to cement and concrete decarbonization is wide, but technical measures must be coupled with effective policy to achieve decarbonization. This study undertakes a review of previous research on cement and concrete decarbonization and analyzes the most common proposed measures along their level of action, involved stakeholders, barriers to implementation, and coordinated policy actions. The review yielded 37 studies from peer-reviewed articles and technical reports. Analysis showed consensus on the primary technical measures to decarbonize. For cement production, measures include (I) improved energy efficiency, (II) fuel switching, (III) carbon capture utilization and storage, and (IV) reduction of the clinker-to-cement ratio. For concrete production and its end-uses common proposed measures include (V) alternative binders, (VI) material and construction efficiency and (VII) CO2 uptake by concrete. While the literature shows an emerging consensus around technical solutions for decarbonization, there was less clarity about preferred policy solutions and key barriers. The reviewed studies consistently focused on technical solutions and roadmaps to achieve decarbonization, but often omitted discussion of barriers to implementation or specific policy actions to overcome them. Further research is needed to consider the feasibility and costs of implementation; identify potential points of entry for policy actions at different jurisdictional scales; and identify enforcement needs.
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The oil refining industry, which was established in the mid-19th century, has become a foundation of modern society. While the refining of crude oil to produce transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks and a variety of other products has brought manifold benefits, it has also led to the global proliferation of greenhouse gas emissions as well as local air pollution from the combustion of fossil fuels. The industry is therefore confronted with a growing need to decarbonize its operations, as well as to support decarbonization of the end use sectors that it directly enables. This paper provides a systematic and critical literature review to uncover the means by which the oil refining industry can decarbonize and evolve as part of an increasingly carbon constrained future. A sociotechnical perspective is used to understand the full range of industrial and economic activities where a decarbonized oil refining industry is expected to remain important and to provide the framework to assess key technical, economic, social and political factors that will likely impact the evolution of the oil refining industry. We highlight key opportunities for this industry to decarbonize while also exposing gaps in the existing literature concerning its decarbonization. The insights provided are expected to support policy makers, researchers and practitioners with the tools needed advance a low-carbon transition of the oil refining industry.
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The relationship of particle size, reaction and sticking behavior of iron ore fines toward efficient fluidized bed hydrogen reduction were systematically investigated at 600-800 oC in a laboratory fluidized bed. First, the reduction kinetics were studied, and the results showed that hydrogen reduction of granulated iron ore was controlled by reduction reaction, and the activation energy was approximately 88.4 kJ/mol. The reduction rate of granulated iron ore with a diameter of 200 μm could be increased by 10 times as the reduction temperature rose from 600 to 800 oC. Then, a modified force balance model was established to distinguish the critical sticking point of granulated iron ore during high temperature fluidized bed hydrogen reduction, and it indicated that the defluidization temperature could be raised from 630 to 790 oC as the particle size was enlarged from 100 to 200 μm with a fluidization number of 10. Eventually, coupling the kinetic model and modified force balance model, the maximum gas utilization rate of fluidized bed hydrogen reduction was estimated, and it indicated that at reduction temperatures of 650-750 oC with particle sizes of 200-300 μm, the optimal gas utilization rate could be achieved, which was consistent with the experimental results. Contradictory to traditional understandings of chemical reaction engineering, due to the interaction of reduction performance and sticking behavior, too high of a reduction temperature or too small of a particle size might not be preferable for fluidized bed hydrogen reduction, and this study provided valuable references for industrial operation.
Preprint
Considering increasingly ambitious pledges by countries, pressure from society, investors, and clients further up the supply chain, the question for companies is not so much whether to take decarbonisation action, but what action and by when. However, determining an ideal mix of measures to apply ‘decarbonisation efficiency’ requires more than knowledge of technically feasible measures and how to combine them to achieve the most economic outcome: In this paper, the author describes seven aspects which heavily influence the composition of an ‘ideal mix’ that executive leadership needs to take a (strategic) position on. These aspects consider underlying motivations and span across (socio-)economic, technical, regulatory, strategic, corporate culture and environmental factors and further underline the necessity of clarity of definitions. How these decisions influence the determination of the decarbonisation-efficient ideal mix of measures, both in principle but also in terms of specific impact is further explored by providing examples. What choices are taken by German manufacturers in several of the aspects is disclosed by insights from about 850 responses to the ‘Energy Efficiency Index of German Industry’. Knowledge of the status quo, and clarity in definitions, objectives, time frames and scope are key.
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Hydrogen metallurgy is an effective way for the high‐carbon‐emission steel industry to achieve low‐carbon green transformation and upgrading. According to energy conservation law, the paper establishes gas utilization rate and thermal balance calculation models, discusses the influence of key factors such as reducing gas composition, reducing temperature and metallization rate on the gas utilization rate and energy consumption, and theoretically calculates the change of energy consumption in the process of steel industry production caused by using hydrogen. The optimal reduction temperature range is 1250∽1350 K, which has theoretical minimum energy consumption, about 3.14 GJ, and maximum gas utilization rate, about 45%. The results show that when using 100% hydrogen reduction, increasing the reduction temperature properly can achieve lower theoretical energy consumption and raise gas utilization rate and further achieve the goal of energy saving and consumption reduction, which is expected to provide beneficial help for hydrogen metallurgy developing in the steel industry. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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The aim of this study was to analyse the bibliographic characteristics and content of articles on energy economics and policy published in journals indexed by Scopus written by researchers from throughout the world from 2010 to 2021. We conducted a bibliometric and content analysis of publication in the Scopus database. We only retrieved articles written in English. We conducted content analysis using the VOSviewer software and visualized the co-occurrence of keywords and bibliographic coupling of sources and countries. Following the study protocol, we found 838 articles on energy economics and policy over the past 11 years. The most productive journal that published these articles was Journal of Cleaner Production (n = 100). The post productive country was the United Kingdom (n = 353). Based on cititations, the most influential authors were O. Ozel (n = 878). The keywords of research on energy economics and policy 8 clusters (e.g policy, energy policy, energy, china, analysis, impact, renewable energy policy and development). From a global perspective, energy economics and policy research in the past one decades has increased significantly. There were United Kingdom published journals ominated publications. Thus, Asian country need to conduct more active research on this topic.Keywords: Bibliometric; Energy; Economics; PolicyJEL Classifications: B10, H00, H11, N10, O10DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11848
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IMeg Argyriou, Chris Bataille, Michel Colombier, Patrick Criqu, Amandine Denis, Sandrine, David Sawyer, Henri Waisman The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is a collab- orative global research initiative seeking to understand how individual countries can transition to a low-carbon economy con- sistent with ambitious climate targets. In its first phase (2014-2015), the DDPP covered 16 countries and developed there a policy-relevant research basis to support the adoption of ambitious domestic climate actions, consistent with national circumstances and the global 2C limit. The DDPP adopts shared methodological principles (transparency and granularity of assumptions and results, long-term vision, multiple pathways to capture uncertainties), and gives a central role to the Country Research Teams, working independently of their governments and responsible for the design of their national low-carbon transformations to 2050. The country teams are indeed responsible for taking into account all specificities of the domestic context in their analysis (be they technical potentials, socio-economic conditions or policy aspects) and for undertaking engagement with domestic decisionmakers based on their conclusions. This brief focuses on the engagement strategy developed by the DDPP teams to have an impact on the domestic processes. It takes the examples of three countries (Australia, Canada and France), reflecting a diversity of institutional circumstances, for which we present the context of domestic climate discussions and how the DDPP studies have been useful to affect policy debates. • In Australia, the DDPP has provided a clear and practical framework to enable the translation of the compelling evidence base for mitigation provided by the DDPP’s agenda-setting research into tangible outcomes by government and business, by pro- viding a transparent, structured and solutions-focused identification of actions towards low-carbon transformation. • In Canada, the DDPP report brought the concept of near full decarbonization from hazy science-fiction to a public space where the technical, economic and policy means could be fairly debated. It was the first study developed by domestic experts that brought concrete insights able to inform the design of domestic policy packages com- patible with ambitious climate goals like the one introduced by the Paris Agreement. It directly influenced an economy wide policy package undertaken by the province of Alberta, and elements of the DDPP policy package are emerging at the federal level (e.g. federal floor carbon price schedule, net zero emissions regulations for buildings). • In France, the DDPP team developed a preliminary version of the dashboard and build on the DDPP study to bring to light the major uncertainties and trade-offs to be dealt- with in the decarbonization process. In particular, the critical dimensions of dynamic management of the transition appear in the accompanying documents to French leg- islative processes on the energy transition.
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The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W/ m2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W /m2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W /m2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.
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The well below 2 degree Celsius target sets a clear limit to future greenhouse gas emissions and thus strict boundaries for the development of future industrial pro-cesses and sourcing of feedstock. This includes the primary production of steel, cement, plastics and other basic materials that currently account for more than 20 % of global carbon dioxide emissions. It requires decarbonised energy systems and more resource efficient and circular economies in material as well as molecular terms. For example, carbon used in plastics and chemicals can no longer be derived from fossil feedstock but should be sourced from biomass, carbonaceous waste streams, or the atmosphere. A new industrial policy is needed, one that respects the necessity of zero emissions and integrates this with the traditional goals of competitiveness, jobs, economic growth and industrial development. We argue that the recent turn in industrial policy towards green growth and resource efficiency does not fully recognise this ne-cessity nor the policy implications of zero emissions in the basic materials industry. An industrial policy for well below 2 degrees Celsius requires an additional turn – a turn towards long-term target-oriented strategies with a focus on zero emissions in basic materials production.
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This paper finds that it is optimal to start a long-term emission-reduction strategy with significant short-term abatement investment, even if the optimal carbon price starts low and grows progressively over time. Moreover, optimal marginal abatement investment costs differ across sectors of the economy. It may be preferable to spend $25 to avoid the marginal ton of carbon in a sector where abatement capital is expensive, such as public transportation, or in a sector with large abatement potential, such as the power sector, than $15 for the marginal ton in a sector with lower cost or lower abatement potential. The reason, distinct from learning spillovers, is that reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires investment in long-lived abatement capital such as clean power plants or public transport infrastructure. The value of abatement investment comes from avoided emissions, but also from the value of abatement capital in the future. The optimal levelized cost of conserved carbon can thus be higher than the optimal carbon price. It is higher in sectors with higher investment needs: those where abatement capital is more expensive or sectors with larger abatement potential. We compare our approach to the traditional abatement-cost-curve model and discuss implications for policy design.
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Countries in the G20 have committed to phase out ‘inefficient’ fossil fuel subsidies. However, there remains a limited understanding of how subsidy removal would affect fossil fuel investment returns and production, particularly for subsidies to producers. Here, we assess the impact of major federal and state subsidies on US crude oil producers. We find that, at recent oil prices of US$50 per barrel, tax preferences and other subsidies push nearly half of new, yet-to-be-developed oil investments into profitability, potentially increasing US oil production by 17 billion barrels over the next few decades. This oil, equivalent to 6 billion tonnes of CO2, could make up as much as 20% of US oil production through 2050 under a carbon budget aimed at limiting warming to 2 °C. Our findings show that removal of tax incentives and other fossil fuel support policies could both fulfil G20 commitments and yield climate benefits. Governments give a variety of subsidies to fossil fuel companies, but G20 nations have committed to phasing these out. Erickson et al. analyse subsidies provided to new crude oil fields in the US and find that, at current oil prices, nearly half of them depend on these subsidies to proceed.
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The transition to a circular economy, where the value of resources is preserved in the technosphere, must be supported by policies and operational decision making based on evidence. Existing methods used to provide this evidence (e.g. LCA, LCSA, CBA) are not robust enough to adequately address the creation and dissipation of systemic and multidimensional value that spans the social, environmental, economic and technical domains. This study proposes a novel, conceptual approach that seeks to assess how complex value is created, destroyed and distributed in resource recovery from waste systems. This approach expands beyond conventional methods of estimating value. It combines scientific and engineering methods with a socio-political narrative grounded in the systems of provision (sop) approach, and provides a comprehensive, analytical framework for making the transition to a resource-efficient future. This framework has the potential to connect bottom-up and top-down approaches in assessing resource recovery from waste systems, and address systemic challenges through transparency and flexibility, while accounting for the dynamic and non-linear nature of commodities flow and infrastructure provision in the overall system. This creates the pathway towards circular economy, and lays the foundations for future advances in computational and assessment methodologies in the field of RRfW.
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Established assessment methods focusing on resource recovery from waste within a circular economy context consider few or even a single domain/s of value, i.e. environmental, economic, social and technical domains. This partial approach often delivers misleading messages for policy and decision-makers. It fails to accurately represent systems complexity, and obscures impacts, trade-offs and problem shifting that resource recovery processes or systems intended to promote circular economy may cause. Here, we challenge such partial approaches by critically reviewing the existing suite of environmental, economic, social and technical metrics that have been regularly observed and used in waste management and resource recovery systems' assessment studies, upstream and downstream of the point where waste is generated. We assess the potential of those metrics to evaluate ‘complex value’ of materials, components and products, i.e., the holistic sum of their environmental, economic, social and technical benefits and impacts across the system. Findings suggest that the way resource recovery systems are assessed and evaluated require simplicity, yet must retain a suitable minimum level of detail across all domains of value, which is pivotal for enabling sound decision-making processes. Criteria for defining a suitable set of metrics for assessing resource recovery from waste require them to be simple, transparent and easy to measure, and be both system- and stakeholder-specific. Future developments must focus on providing a framework for the selection of metrics that accurately describe (or at least reliably proxy for) benefits and impacts across all domains of value, enabling effective and transparent analysis of resource recovery form waste in circular economy systems.
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In order to meet the IPCC recommendation for an 80% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050, industries will be required to drastically reduce their emissions. To meet these targets, technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) must be part of the economic set of decarbonisation options for industry. A systematic review of the literature has been carried out on four of the largest industrial sectors (the iron and steel industry, the cement industry, the petroleum refining industry and the pulp and paper industry) as well as selected high-purity sources of CO2 from other industries to assess the applicability of different CCS technologies. Costing data have been gathered, and for the cement, iron and steel and refining industries, these data are used in a model to project costs per tonne of CO2 avoided over the time period extending from first deployment until 2050. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the model to assess which variables had the greatest impact on the overall cost of wide-scale CCS deployment for future better targeting of cost reduction measures. The factors found to have the greatest overall impact were the initial cost of CCS at the start of deployment and the start date at which large scale deployment is started, whilst a slower initial deployment rate after the start date also leads to significantly increased costs.
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Negative emissions technologies (NETs) in general and Bioenergy with CO2 Capture and Storage (BECCS) in particular are commonly regarded as vital yet controversial to meeting our climate goals. In this contribution we present a whole-systems analysis of the BECCS value chain associated with the cultivation, harvesting, transport and conversion in dedicated biomass power stations in conjunction with CCS, of a range of biomass resources – both dedicated energy crops (miscanthus, switchgrass, short rotation coppice willow), and agricultural residues (wheat straw). We explicitly consider the implications of sourcing the biomass from different regions, climates and land types. The water, carbon and energy footprints of each value chain were calculated, and their impact on the overall system water, carbon and power efficiencies were evaluated. Anextensive literature review was performed and a statistical analysis of the available data is presented. In order to describe the dynamic greenhouse gas balance of such as system, a yearly accounting of the emissions was performed over the lifetime of a BECCS facility, and the "breakeven time" and lifetime net CO2 removal from the atmosphere were determined. The effects of direct and indirect land use change were included, and were found to be a key determinant of the viability of a BECCS project. Overall we conclude that, depending on the conditions of its deployment, BECCS could lead to both carbon positive and negative results. The total quantity of CO2 removed from the atmosphere over the project lifetime and the time required to start removing CO2 from the atmosphere were observed to be highly case specific. This has profound implications for the policy frameworks required to incentivise and regulate the widespread deployment of BECCS technology. The results of a sensitivity analysis on the model combined with the investigation of alternate supply chain scenarios elucidated four key levers to improve the sustainability of BECCS: 1) measuring and limiting the impacts of direct and indirect land use changes, 2) using carbon neutral power and organic fertilizers, 3) prioritizing sea over road transport, while increasing the use of carbon negative fuels, and, 4) exploiting alternative biomass processing options, e.g., natural drying or torrefaction.
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Industrial processes currently contribute 40% to global CO2 emissions and therefore substantial increases in industrial energy efficiency are required for reaching the 2 °C target. We assess the macroeconomic effects of deploying low carbon technologies in six energy intensive industrial sectors (Petroleum, Iron and Steel, Non-metallic Minerals, Paper and Pulp, Chemicals, and Electricity) in Europe, China and India in 2030. By combining the GAINS technology model with a macroeconomic computable general equilibrium model, we find that output in energy intensive industries declines in Europe by 6% in total, while output increases in China by 11% and in India by 13%. The opposite output effects emerge because low carbon technologies lead to cost savings in China and India but not in Europe. Consequently, the competitiveness of energy intensive industries is improved in China and India relative to Europe, leading to higher exports to Europe. In all regions, the decarbonization of electricity plays the dominant role for mitigation. We find a rebound effect in China and India, in the size of 42% and 34% CO2 reduction, respectively, but not in Europe. Our results indicate that the range of considered low-carbon technology options is not competitive in the European industrial sectors. To foster breakthrough low carbon technologies and maintain industrial competitiveness, targeted technology policy is therefore needed to supplement carbon pricing.
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Concerns about climate change and increasing emission costs are drivers for new sources of fuels for Europe. Sustainable hydrocarbons can be produced synthetically by power-to-gas (PtG) and power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities, for sectors with low direct electrification such as aviation, heavy transportation and chemical industry. Hybrid PV–Wind power plants can harvest high solar and wind potentials of the Maghreb region to power these systems. This paper calculates the cost of these fuels for Europe, and presents a respective business case for the Maghreb region. Calculations are hourly resolved to find the least cost combination of technologies in a 0.45⁰ x 0.45⁰ spatial resolution. Results show that, for 7% weighted average cost of capital (WACC), renewable energy based synthetic natural gas (RE-SNG) and RE-diesel can be produced in 2030 for a minimum cost of 76 €/MWh,HHV (0.78 €/m3 SNG) and 88 €/MWh,HHV (0.85 €/L), respectively. While in 2040, these production costs can drop to 66 €/MWh,HHV (0.68 €/m3 SNG) and 83 €/MWhHHV (0.80 €/L), respectively. Considering access to a WACC of 5% in a de-risking project, oxygen sales and CO2 emissions costs, RE-diesel can reach fuel-parity at crude oil prices of 101 and 83 USD/bbl in 2030 and 2040, respectively. Thus, RE-synthetic fuels could be produced to answer fuel demand and remove environmental concerns in Europe at an affordable cost.
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The Paris Agreement points out that countries need to shift away from the existing fossil-fuel-based energy system to limit the average temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 °C. A cost-optimal 100% renewable energy based system is simulated for East Asia for the year 2030, covering demand by power, desalination, and industrial gas sectors on an hourly basis for an entire year. East Asia was divided into 20 sub-regions and four different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage grid connection, and additional demand sectors: power, desalination, industrial gas, and a renewable-energy-based synthetic natural gas (RE-SNG) trading between regions. The integrated RE-SNG scenario gives the lowest cost of electricity (€52/MWh) and the lowest total annual cost of the system. Results contradict the notion that long-distance power lines could be beneficial to utilize the abundant solar and wind resources in Australia for East Asia. However, Australia could become a liquefaction hub for exporting RE-SNG to Asia and a 100% renewable energy system could be a reality in East Asia with the cost assumptions used. This may also be more cost-competitive than nuclear and fossil fuel carbon capture and storage alternatives.
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The potential benefits are examined of the “Power-to-Gas” (P2G) scheme to utilize excess wind power capacity by generating hydrogen (or potentially methane) for use in the natural gas distribution grid. A parametric analysis is used to determine the feasibility and size of systems producing hydrogen that would be injected into the natural gas grid. Specifically, wind farms located in southwestern Ontario, Canada are considered. Infrastructure requirements, wind farm size, pipeline capacity, geographical dispersion, hydrogen production rate, capital and operating costs are used as performance measures. The model takes into account the potential production rate of hydrogen and the rate that it can be injected into the local gas grid. “Straw man” systems are examined, centered on a wind farm size of 100 MW integrating a 16-MW capacity electrolysis system typically producing 4700 kg of hydrogen per day.
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We have extended the Integrated Assessment Model TIAM-MACRO to consider externalities related to Local Atmospheric Pollution (LAP) of 15 world regions. Externalities are changes of welfare due to activities (in our case the impacts of LAP originated from the energy and transportation system) without being reflected in market prices (hence not paid by the polluters). TIAM-MACRO contributes to coherent and consistent policy analyses and insights both at the world and regional level and correlates demand for energy services to macroeconomic developments across regions and time until the end of the 21 st century. Regions are integrated via a maximization of the global welfare (expressed as the weighted sum of the regional logarithm of consumption), international trade, regional resource use, the storage capacities for captured CO2 and the regional damages and externalities of LAP and climate change. The external costs of pollution are based on evaluations of the EU Project NEEDS. This project has generated externality cost data for the EU only, and is extended to all world regions following a PSI approach described in Appendix A. Then, two contrasting scenarios are defined with TIAM related to the reference development (BASE) and the 2 °Celsius (2DS) case which is following long term policies on climatic change mitigation in the spirit of the Paris agreement in 2015. The stringency of the 2DS case is strong and requires the complete restructuring of the energy and transport systems to be relying on carbon-free technologies at high costs. The study concludes on the importance of LAP in relation to climate change, performing first a post optimal analysis of external cost without including them in the optimization process. Then, the two scenarios are re-evaluated by taking into consideration LAP externalities in the welfare function. The study favors actions supporting CO2 reductions and concludes that the internalization of local externalities, when applied together with carbon policies, has the potential to partially compensate for the cost of carbon control and the cost of controlling local pollutants. But the stringency of the 2DS case is such that at even zero discount rates the cost of such policies is above benefits.
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This article outlines the current state of affairs in fossil fuel subsidy reform, and highlights its contribution at the nexus of climate policy, fiscal stability and sustainable development. It discusses common definitions, provides quantitative estimates, and presents the evidence for key arguments in favour of subsidy reform. The main drivers and barriers for reform are also discussed, including the role of (low) oil prices and political economy challenges. Commitments to subsidy reform by the international community are reviewed, as well as the progress at the country level. Although fossil fuel subsidy reform indeed plays a critical role in climate policy, experience shows that the rationale for such reforms is determined in a complex environment of political economy challenges, macro-economic, fiscal and social factors, as well as external drivers such as energy prices. The article synthesizes the key principles for designing effective reforms and emphasizes that subsidy reforms cannot only yield fiscal relief, but should also contribute to long-term sustainable development objectives. Areas for future research are also identified. Policy relevance There is an increasingly strong international consensus that fossil fuel subsidies are detrimental in terms of economic, social and environmental sustainability. Organizations including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the International Energy Agency consider fossil fuel subsidy reform a critical measure for achieving any ambitious emissions mitigation target. The reason is that these subsidies not only incentivize overconsumption of carbon-intensive energy, but directly undermine any effort to impose a price on carbon (e.g. through carbon taxes). While subsidy reform is crucial from a climate change perspective, the wide range of externalities associated with fuel subsidies also underscores the fact that reform is a vital contribution to sustainable development objectives more generally. This article emphasizes that fossil fuel subsidy reform can make a substantial contribution to climate policy, but also discusses how strongly environmental objectives are intertwined with fiscal, macro-economic, political and social factors. Although the momentum for subsidy reform is building, reforms are often designed to deliver fiscal rather than environmental benefits.
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Contrary to ‘static’ pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policy makers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on the implementation of specific policies and instruments. Given structural, effectiveness, and timing uncertainties specific to each policy option, they may fail in delivering the expected outcomes in time. The possibility of diverging from an initial decarbonization trajectory to another one without incurring excessive costs should therefore be a strategic element in the design of an appropriate decarbonization strategy. The article relies on initial experiences in France and Germany on decarbonization planning and implementation to define elements for managing dynamic adjustment issues. Such an adaptive pathway strategy should combine long-lived incentives, like a pre-announced escalating carbon price, to form consistent expectations, as well as adaptive policies to improve overall robustness and resilience. We sketch key elements of a monitoring process based on an ex ante definition of leading indicators that should be assessed regularly and combined with signposts and trigger values at the subsector level. Policy relevance These research questions are of special interest and urgency following the Paris Agreement in 2015. It calls on all countries to monitor the implementation of their national contributions and review their ambition regularly. The regular revision of decarbonization pathways constitute a great research opportunity to gather experiences on decarbonization pathway implementation and on dynamic management issues to progress towards an operational dynamic adaptive policy pathway mechanism.
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The paper reviews the recent research contributions and future promising perspectives regarding innovation in concrete technologies for low carbon applications in buildings. To this aim, an original classification of recent trends is presented for reducing the carbon footprint of concrete constructions by identifying three main research lines. The first one is related to the enhancement of physical and mechanical properties of concrete, the second one is related to resource efficiency and raw materials' saving, and the third one concerns the role of smart concretes in building energy efficiency. Possible synergies between the three addressed main research lines are finally discussed. Keywords: concrete; cement based material; smart material; energy efficiency in buildings; sustainable building material.
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In a future fossil-free circular economy, the petroleum-based plastics industry must be converted to non-fossil feedstock. A known alternative is bio-based plastics, but a relatively unexplored option is deriving the key plastic building blocks, hydrogen and carbon, from electricity through electrolytic processes combined with carbon capture and utilization technology. In this paper the future demand for electricity and carbon dioxide is calculated under the assumption that all plastic production is electricity-based in the EU by 2050. The two most important input chemicals are ethylene and propylene and the key finding of this paper is that the electricity demand to produce these are estimated to 20 MWh/ton ethylene and 38 MWh/ton propylene, and that they both could require about 3 tons of carbon dioxide/ton product. With constant production levels, this implies an annual demand of about 800 TWh of electricity and 90 Mton of carbon dioxide by 2050 in the EU. If scaled to the total production of plastics, including all input hydrocarbons in the EU, the annual demand is estimated to 1600 TWh of electricity and 180 Mton of carbon dioxide. This suggests that a complete shift to electricity-based plastics is possible from a resource and technology point of view, but production costs may be 2 to 3 times higher than today. However, the long time frame of this paper creates uncertainties regarding the results and how technical, economic and social development may influence them. The conclusion of this paper is that electricity-based plastics, integrated with bio-based production, can be an important option in 2050 since biomass resources are scarce, but electricity from renewable sources is abundant.
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is broadly viewed as the world’s most legitimate scientific assessment body that periodically assesses the economics of climate change (among many other topics) for policy audiences. However, growing procedural inefficiencies and limitations to substantive coverage have made the IPCC an increasingly unattractive forum for the most qualified climate economists. Drawing on our observations and personal experience working on the most recent IPCC report, published last year, we propose four reforms to the IPCC’s process that we believe will lower the cost for volunteering as an IPCC author: improving interactions between governments and academics, making IPCC operations more efficient, clarifying and strengthening conflict of interest rules, and expanding outreach. We also propose three reforms to the IPCC’s substantive coverage to clarify the IPCC’s role and to make participation as an author more intellectually rewarding: complementing the IPCC with other initiatives, improving the integration of economics with other disciplines, and providing complete data for policymakers to make decisions. Despite the distinct characteristics of the IPCC that create challenges for authors unlike those in any other review body, we continue to believe in the importance of the IPCC for providing the most visible line of public communication between the scholarly community and policymakers.
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To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 °C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals.
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Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO2. Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO2 emissions.
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