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Global warming and skiing: analysis of the future of skiing in the Aosta Valley
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines the impact of global warming and climate change on skiing by assessing the costs that ski resorts would have to bear in order to address the lack of snow. In this way new development models can be hypothesized for the regional economy in the Aosta Valley, territory located in the West Alps whose economy is largely based on winter tourism.
Design/methodology/approach
Starting with a literature review regarding global warming and its effects on the Alps, a methodology of analysis has been implemented in order to assess the relative weaknesses of ski resorts. Additional costs in adaptation strategies have been considered in the light of a major choice ski resorts must face: investing or not. For this analysis, four scenarios of global warming have been taken into consideration.
Findings
The lack of snow due to a rise in temperatures will have a big impact on regional ski resorts and will seriously threaten the economy of small lateral valleys. In this scenario, it is important to think about reorganizing the regional ski supply by focusing on stations with better economic results and those strategically well located. In this way, we can safeguard winter tourism in the region and preserve skiing by concentrating costs only in those resorts that are also able to bear new cost adaptation strategies.
Originality/value
The value of this paper is its estimation of the future impact of a rise in the average temperature in regional ski resorts. This impact is assessed in relation to concerns about the reduction of the skiing area and the new costs that ski companies will need to bear. The paper also proposes a new model for the reorganization of the ski supply in the Aosta Valley.
... Il est difficile d'avoir une vision d'ensemble des différentes positions tenues par les collectivités locales à l'égard de la production de neige. Au niveau européen, les collectivités locales, voire les Etats, soutiennent ou ont soutenu cette pratique que ce soit en Suisse au niveau fédéral et cantonal (Gonseth, 2008) mais aussi en Autriche au niveau national et régional (Falk & Steiger, 2019;Pröbstl-Haider, 2019) ou encore en Italie (Joly & Ungureanu, 2018). Au niveau national français, et même si la montagne occupe une place moins centrale que chez nos voisins européens, on peut rappeler le rapport Badré et al. (2009) qui visait à réaliser un état des lieux de la production de neige. ...
... Cette intervention publique sur la production de neige, souvent laissée aux soins des exploitants (Bohn & Bernardi, 2019) est assez inédite en Europe. Bien que les autorités publiques locales peuvent soutenir financièrement les stations de ski en Autriche (Falk & Steiger, 2018 ou en Italie (Joly & Ungureanu, 2018), seule l'analyse de la politique suisse de soutien à la production de neige existait jusqu'alors. Avec le dispositif suisse, les plus petites stations n'étaient souvent pas éligibles tandis que les plus grandes n'en avaient pas besoin pour financer leurs investissements (Gonseth, 2008). ...
The tourism sector, including the ski tourism industry, is a key economic activity for many mountain regions. The ski tourism industry is at the centre of social, economic, environmental and climate issues. The vulnerability of ski tourism to the variability of snow cover and its reduction due to climate change are part of the climate vulnerability of mountain tourism areas. Snowmaking technology has been deployed in the French Alps for over 30 years now and is the most widely used adaptive response to climate vulnerability. This practice raises many concerns regarding both its economic and environmental relevance in a medium to long-term perspective. Its capacity to decisively steer the future development of mountain tourism regions is a key issue. To understand how the dynamics of snowmaking investments can influence the development of mountain regions, this work has sought to identify two key components. First, the plurality of determinants involved in snowmaking investments. Our analysis takes into account both physical and technical-economic factors that participate in the dynamic of snowmaking growth. We carried out a situational analysis of snowmaking investments in over 100 ski resorts in the French Alps. We underlined that snowmaking plays a crucial role in a capital-intensive sector. Econometric modelling revealed that investment strategies in snowmaking in larger ski resorts were beyond natural snow conditions. We integrated the investment figures into a growth model to infer the evolution of the part of ski slopes equipped with snowmaking facilities at the scale of individual ski areas. We crossed that modelling with a snowpack model and assessed the gains in snow reliability reached with snowmaking. We based part of our thesis research on a theoretical framework from evolutionary economic geography and the notion of path dependency. Based on more than 50 semi-directed interviews of stakeholders, we have highlighted how the diffusion of snowmaking has modified the ski industry. In particular, we have stressed the self- reinforcing and lock-in mechanisms involving both ski lift operators and a broad range of stakeholders in the winter sports economy: snowmaking system providers, local institutions, tour-operators and real estate promoters. Our approach allows a better understanding of the mechanisms happening in the ski industry in the context of transition to a less winter tourism dependent economy in mountain regions.
... Il est difficile d'avoir une vision d'ensemble des différentes positions tenues par les collectivités locales à l'égard de la production de neige. Au niveau européen, les collectivités locales, voire les Etats, soutiennent ou ont soutenu cette pratique que ce soit en Suisse au niveau fédéral et cantonal (Gonseth, 2008) mais aussi en Autriche au niveau national et régional (Falk & Steiger, 2019;Pröbstl-Haider, 2019) ou encore en Italie (Joly & Ungureanu, 2018). Au niveau national français, et même si la montagne occupe une place moins centrale que chez nos voisins européens, on peut rappeler le rapport Badré et al. (2009) qui visait à réaliser un état des lieux de la production de neige. ...
... Cette intervention publique sur la production de neige, souvent laissée aux soins des exploitants (Bohn & Bernardi, 2019) est assez inédite en Europe. Bien que les autorités publiques locales peuvent soutenir financièrement les stations de ski en Autriche (Falk & Steiger, 2018 ou en Italie (Joly & Ungureanu, 2018), seule l'analyse de la politique suisse de soutien à la production de neige existait jusqu'alors. Avec le dispositif suisse, les plus petites stations n'étaient souvent pas éligibles tandis que les plus grandes n'en avaient pas besoin pour financer leurs investissements (Gonseth, 2008). ...
Le tourisme des sports d’hiver est une activité économique structurante pour de nombreux territoires de montagne. La variabilité de l'enneigement et sa diminution liée au changement climatique sont des d’éléments de vulnérabilité climatique pour les territoires touristiques de montagne. La technologie de la production de neige développée dans les Alpes françaises depuis plus de 30 ans est considérée comme une réponse adaptative face aux enjeux du changement climatique. Cette pratique soulève de multiples questions au regard de sa pertinence économique et environnementale à moyen et à long terme mais aussi pour sa capacité à orienter dans la durée le devenir des sociétés de montagne. Afin de comprendre comment la production de neige oriente le développement des territoires touristiques de montagne, ce travail s’est attaché à identifier les déterminants des dynamiques d’investissement dans la production de neige. L’originalité de notre travail réside dans la prise en compte des déterminants physiques et technico-économiques qui orientent les trajectoires d’équipement dans la production de neige. Un état des lieux de l’investissement dans la production de neige dans les domaines skiables des Alpes françaises souligne la place déterminante de cette pratique dans un secteur à forte intensité capitalistique. Une modélisation économétrique révèle que dans les plus grands domaines skiables, les stratégies d’investissement en production de neige sont indépendantes des conditions d’enneigement en neige naturelle. Nous avons reconstitué les trajectoires d'équipement en production de neige des domaines skiables sur la base de leurs investissements. Avec cette reconstitution, couplée à une chaîne de modélisation des conditions d’enneigement, nous avons évalué les gains de fiabilité de l’enneigement associés à la production de neige sur la période passée. Notre recherche s’est aussi inscrite dans le champ de la géographie économique évolutionniste en mobilisant le concept de dépendance au sentier. Nous avons montré, avec un série d’entretiens, comment la diffusion de la production de neige a modifié l’industrie des sports d’hiver. Nous avons mis en évidence des mécanismes d’auto-renforcement et de verrouillage impliquant les gestionnaires de domaine skiable ainsi que l’ensemble des parties- prenantes de l’économie des sports d’hiver. Notre approche permet une plus grande compréhension des mécanismes à l’œuvre dans les territoires touristiques de montagne à l’heure où des démarches de transition touristique sont initiées.
... bus connections, trains), average fuel prices, economic shocks (e.g. economic turmoil, the COVID-19 pandemic) and public intervention. Intense climate changes increase costs for electricity and snowmaking, further challenging cableways' competitive advantages (Berard-Chenu et al., 2020;Joly & Ungureanu, 2018;Scott, 2011;Steiger et al., 2019). ...
... In the long run, extreme weather conditions may reduce the appeal of mountain destinations (Boller et al., 2010;Hamilton et al., 2007). The present study shows that public intervention, combined with coopetition and e-commerce, can counter the adverse effects of climate changes (Cristobal-Fransi et al., 2018;Joly & Ungureanu, 2018). Climate change undermines cableway profitability, especially for firms at lower altitudes with drier weather and higher temperatures. ...
The paper provides a theoretical framework on demand for cableway system, business profitability and competitiveness between mountain areas, including novel elements such as on-line customer satisfaction. Through an in-depth literature review, three important theoretical constructs and core determinants have been identified and further validated by a Structural Equation Model (SEM) using continuous indicators either as observable variables or as latent variables. The results show that the cableway supply in the Italian Aosta Valley Region, as a case study representing the typical alpine biodiverse region, is based on a shade public intervention. The success of the cableway system depends mainly on a loyal segment of demand, on middle/high income and on multi-elastic prices policy. Furthermore, the results provide evidence of possible cooperative competition (or win-win co-opetition) amongst agents.
... Cette intervention publique sur la production de neige est assez inédite en Europe puisque c'est un investissement souvent laissée aux soins des exploitants (Bohn & Bernardi, 2019). Bien que les autorités publiques locales peuvent soutenir financièrement les stations de ski en Autriche (Falk & Steiger, 2018, 2020 ou en Italie (Joly & Ungureanu, 2018), aucune analyse récente des politiques de soutien à la production de neige n'existait jusqu'alors. Dans le cas de la région Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, les grandes stations ont largement bénéficié du dispositif de soutien avec un effet d'aubaine car il permettait de réduire le coût de l'investissement. ...
Les spécificités des territoires touristiques de montagne et les politiques publiques régionales orientent les trajectoires d’équipement en production de neige des stations de ski des Alpes françaises. Sur la base d’entretiens auprès de 20 stations de ski de Savoie et de données de la politique régionale de subventionnement pour l’investissement dans la production de neige, ce travail analyse les facteurs qui influencent les trajectoires prises par les stations de ski en matière de développement de la production de neige. L’accès à l’eau, les contraintes climatiques et les attentes des partenaires touristiques locaux sont des facteurs qui orientent, à l’échelle de chaque station, le développement de la production de neige. La dépendance des territoires de montagne à l’égard de l’économie des sports d’hiver a conduit à la mise en place par les acteurs institutionnels de politiques de soutien en faveur de la production de neige. Cette étude présente un état des lieux des politiques de soutien en France et montre au travers du cas de la région Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes qu’entre 2016 et 2019, le subventionnement a largement bénéficié à l’extension de la couverture en production de neige des plus grandes stations. Ce soutien des acteurs institutionnels est une des caractéristiques qui illustre un phénomène de dépendance au sentier des territoires de montagne vis-à-vis de l’industrie des sports d’hiver.
... Since ski lift operators often make snowmaking investments by themselves (Bohn & Bernardi, 2019), the extent of this public intervention is unprecedented in Europe. Although local public authorities have financially supported ski resorts in Austria (Falk & Steiger, 2018, 2020 and in Italy (Joly & Ungureanu, 2018), there was no analysis of public policies supporting snowmaking up to the present point in time. In the case of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, the large ski resorts have benefited from the support scheme with windfall gains, because the scheme allowed them to reduce their investment costs and accelerate their investment plans. ...
The specificities of mountain tourism areas and regional public policies influence the snowmaking equipment trajectories of ski resorts in the French Alps. Based on interviews among 20 ski resorts in Savoie (Northern French Alps) and data from regional policy of subsidies for snowmaking investments, this work analyses the drivers affecting the paths taken by ski resorts in their development of snowmaking. Access to water, climatic constraints and the expectations of local tourism stakeholders drive the development of snowmaking in each ski resort. The dependence of mountain tourism areas on the winter sports economy has led to the implementation of support policies for snowmaking by institutional actors. This study presents an overview of support policies in France and shows, through the case of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region (NUTS-2), that between 2016 and 2019 subsidies have benefited the extension of snowmaking coverage in the largest ski resorts. This support from institutional stakeholders is one of the characteristics that illustrates a phenomenon of mountain tourism areas’ path dependence on the winter sports industry.
... Despite the progress made in the last two decades to represent more complex environmental conditions in models and more appropriate output indicators required by the tourism industry, studies limited to the 1st generation lens are still published (Uhlmann et al., 2009;Sauter et al., 2010;Hendrikx et al., 2013;Campos Rodrigues et al., 2018;Chin et al., 2018;Joly & Ungureanu, 2018). Other approaches such as tourism indices (e.g. ...
Mountain landscapes and communities are highly sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. Tourism in mountain regions is highly dependent on natural resources and attractions which are very sensitive to climatic changes. This systematic review analyzing 276 papers, provides a comprehensive analysis of scientific literature dealing with climate change impacts on mountain tourism. While the impacts on the snow season are predominantly negative, impacts to summer season activities range from positive to negative. Contradictory results and lack of research in some regions and tourism activities means the overall impact is far from clear. We identified seven key knowledge gaps: underrepresentation of studies for South America and Africa, lack of appropriate data and indicators, an all-season perspective and investigation of opportunities, economic and socio-political consequences for mountain communities, the need for better science communication, and a lack of studies addressing liability and regulatory risks. Increasing our multidisciplinary understanding of potential climate impacts on mountain tourism and engaging stakeholders to prepare for the projected changes will help local populations in mountain communities create applicable and effective climate adaptation strategies.
... Les conséquences du changement climatique sur les espaces de montagne et les impacts des processus géomorphologiques associés sur le tourisme ont déjà fait l'objet de travaux de recherche. La plupart d'entre eux se sont cependant largement concentrés sur les activités hivernales et sur l'industrie du ski et la ressource neige (e.g., Steiger & Abegg, 2013 ;Gilaberte-Búrdalo et al., 2014 ;Joly & Ungureanu, 2018 ;Spandre et al., 2019 ;Scott et al., 2020). À noter que de rares publications se sont penchées sur le ski d'été sur glacier (Falk, 2016 ;. ...
After being perceived negatively by the inhabitants of mountain areas, glaciers have been promoted as a tourist attraction for over two centuries. The first visits to the Arveyron Arch (Chamonix) in the 18th century were followed by cog railways and cable cars that allow access to the largest glaciers in the Alps and in the world in just a few dozen minutes. Thus, glacier tourism today includes practices and touristic sites that are emblematic of certain mountain territories. However, rising temperatures and the extremely rapid glacier retreat also make these glacier sites markers of climate change. The Mer de Glace in France, the Rhone glacier in Switzerland and the Pasterze glacier in Austria are among the major glacier tourist sites that are experiencing the full force of landscape changes linked to the retreat of the cryosphere. What do these changes imply for the operators of these glacier tourism sites? And for their visitors? Using mixed methodologies, this PhD thesis attempts to answer these two questions for six major Alpine glacier tourism sites. In essence, the results show that glacial tourism sites are largely impacted by climate change and the glaciological and geomorphological changes it brings to mountain territories. These impacts lead to difficulties in site management, itinerary issues, difficulties in carrying out certain activities which may become more dangerous, or a decrease in the attractiveness of the sites through less attractive glacial activities or through a "landscape degradation" feared by the site managers. However, our results with visitors to the sites show that this "degradation" of the landscape does not drastically reduce visitors' satisfaction with the glacial landscape: the negative judgements are limited to glaciers or paraglacial forms, but only slightly affect visitors' general appreciation of the landscape. At the same time, a new form of tourism - last chance tourism - is developing around glaciers and shows that they are now considered as "endangered species". Furthermore, the site managers in question are implementing strategies for adapting to climate change that are mainly reactive and which raise the question of their long-term sustainability. This question is even more important as glacier modelling for the year 2050 suggests that current adaptations will not be sufficient.
... Les conséquences du changement climatique sur les espaces de montagne et les impacts des processus géomorphologiques associés sur le tourisme ont déjà fait l'objet de travaux de recherche. La plupart d'entre eux se sont cependant largement concentrés sur les activités hivernales et sur l'industrie du ski et la ressource neige (e.g., Steiger & Abegg, 2013 ;Gilaberte-Búrdalo et al., 2014 ;Joly & Ungureanu, 2018 ;Spandre et al., 2019 ;Scott et al., 2020). À noter que de rares publications se sont penchées sur le ski d'été sur glacier (Falk, 2016 ;. ...
Depuis la mise en tourisme des « glacières » de Chamonix en 1741, les paysages glaciaires contribuent fortement à l’attractivité des territoires alpins, et donc à leur économie. Le recul généralisé des glaciers lié au changement climatique en cours engendre de profonds changements paysagers qui impactent de nombreux sites touristiques de l’arc alpin. Le travail doctoral proposé sur l’avenir des activités touristiques liées aux paysages englacés, novateur et pluridisciplinaire, s’empare d’une question sensible pour les acteurs du tourisme et de l’aménagement en montagne. Il se propose d’y répondre : 1.en établissant une typologie des sites touristiques en contexte glaciaire, qui intègre sur la longue durée leur développement et la dynamique des glaciers correspondants, 2.en étudiant l’évolution interannuelle de leur fréquentation depuis les années 1980, caractérisées par la dernière avancée glaciaire alpine, 3.en explicitant les représentations et attentes du public au moyen d’enquêtes accompagnées d’une approche photographique, 4.en proposant une approche méthodologique applicable à plusieurs échéances à partir d’une analyse critique des aménagements passés et actuels. L’étude sera prioritairement conduite à l’échelle des Alpes occidentales, éventuellement étendue aux Alpes centrales et orientales, afin de permettre une dimension comparative. Les résultats enrichiront les connaissances actuelles sur les conséquences économiques du changement climatique en montagne. Ils contribueront à fonder les prises de décisions des gestionnaires d’infrastructures (refuges, téléphériques, buvettes) et des décideurs locaux (communes, communautés de communes, syndicats) et régionaux quant à l’évolution des produits touristiques proposés en contexte glaciaire.
... In addition to studies on the global vulnerability of tourism to climate change (e.g., Scott et al., 2019), studies on different tourism niches have been conducted regarding whale watching (Lambert et al., 2010), bird watching (Kutzner, 2019) or Arctic cruise tourism . Winter activities have been the subject of many research studies in mountainous territories, especially concerning the effects of climate change on the ski industry and its adaptations (Gilaberte-Búrdalo et al., 2014;Joly & Ungureanu, 2018;Steiger et al., 2019). ...
Climate change strongly affects mountain tourism activities. Glacier tourism is highly affected by the retreat of glaciers. However, research on the effects and adaptations of glacier tourism to climate change is scarce in Europe. By analysing the glacio-geomorphological literature, semi-structured interviews, and observations at six major Alpine glacier tourism sites, we aim to identify the physical processes that affect glacier tourism in the Alps and how stakeholders perceive and adapt to them. The results reveal that glacier retreat and the associated paraglacial dynamics and permafrost warming strongly affect glacier tourism. Stakeholders perceive six main issues: management, itinerary, infrastructure, attractiveness, safety, and activity. In response, they have been adapting with eight strategies: management change, technical means implementation, mitigation, diversification, access and itinerary maintenance, heritage development, planning, and implementation of transformation projects. These strategies are discussed regarding their relevance to tourism model transition to guarantee future sustainability.
Supplementary information:
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-021-01849-0.
... In addition to studies on the global vulnerability of tourism to climate change (e.g., Scott et al., 2019), studies on different tourism niches have been conducted regarding whale watching (Lambert et al., 2010), bird watching (Kutzner, 2019) or Arctic cruise tourism . Winter activities have been the subject of many research studies in mountainous territories, especially concerning the effects of climate change on the ski industry and its adaptations (Gilaberte-Búrdalo et al., 2014;Joly & Ungureanu, 2018;Steiger et al., 2019). ...
Climate change strongly affects mountain tourism activities. Glacier tourism is highly affected by the retreat of glaciers. However, research on the effects and adaptations of glacier tourism to climate change is scarce in Europe. By analysing the glacio-geomorphological literature, semi-structured interviews, and observations at six major Alpine glacier tourism sites, we aim to identify the physical processes that affect glacier tourism in the Alps and how stakeholders perceive and adapt to them. The results reveal that glacier retreat and the associated paraglacial dynamics and permafrost warming strongly affect glacier tourism. Stakeholders perceive six main issues: management, itinerary, infrastructure, attractiveness, safety, and activity. In response, they have been adapting with eight strategies: management change, technical means implementation, mitigation, diversification, access and itinerary maintenance, heritage development, planning, and implementation of transformation projects. These strategies are discussed regarding their relevance to tourism model transition to guarantee future sustainability.
... Various studies have been conducted on ski tourism concerning its vulnerability to climate change and the adaptation strategies implemented within the industry (e.g., Moen & Fredman, 2007;Joly & Ungureanu, 2018;Steiger et al., 2019;Steiger & Scott, 2020). Glacier tourism, on the other hand -an important activity for mountain territories during summer seasons -has not yet been sufficiently investigated. ...
Climate change induces profound changes in mountain territories that affect the activities pursued there. Tourism is one activity that is strongly impacted by these changes. Most research on tourism in mountain regions has focused on winter sports tourism, but glacier tourism, a summer activity, is also severely affected by climate change-induced phenomena, including glacier retreat and other geomorphological processes. Given that Alpine glacier tourism has been pursued since the 18 th century and glaciers have been changing throughout this period, this article aims to examine the adaptations implemented by glacier tourism operators since the activity's beginnings. Through analysis of historical documents, glaciological surveys and semi-structured interviews, this paper reveals how tourism activities around the Mer de Glace (the largest French glacier) have been impacted by glacier fluctuations since the first visit to the area in 1741. The study reveals that these developments have mainly been driven by glacier retreat and associated paraglacial dynamics. More recently, the shortening of the period of snow cover on the glacier has also impacted tourism activities. Most of the adaptation strategies implemented by tourism operators during the period in question are found to be reactive, consisting in the installation of safety equipment, the renovation of access points or the building of new structures to allow tourist activities to continue despite the consequences of glacier retreat. Other strategies, such as the adoption of new activities by workers previously specialised in another, are identified that could be considered transformative strategies, although these were only adopted by workers when their activity was no longer feasible. The analysis of materials from 1741 to the present also reveals that the recent impacts of climate change on glacier tourism are much more significant and diverse than those produced by past fluctuations. Therefore, it is important that stakeholders take suitable measures to ensure the sustainable future of the Mer de Glace and other glacier tourism destinations.
... La manière dont il modifie les caractéristiques glaciologiques et géomorphologiques de la haute montagne fait l'objet de nombreuses recherches (Beniston et al., 2018 ;Einhorn et al., 2015 ;Haeberli et al., 2010). Si son impact sur la pratique du ski alpin est bien documenté (Joly et Ungureanu, 2018 ;Paccard, 2009) ses conséquences sur les pratiques estivales ont jusqu'alors fait l'objet d'une investigation plus limitée. D'après les premières études réalisées, la haute montagne alpine semble globalement plus dangereuse pour la pratique de l'alpinisme (Pröbstl-Haider et al., 2016 ;Temme, 2015 ;Ritter et al., 2012) 2 La question de l'adaptation aux conséquences du réchauffement est aujourd'hui un point capital dans les discussions politiques (Garcia, 2015) et constitue l'une des deux stratégies de réponse au changement climatique prônées GIEC (Simonet, 2015). ...
L’évolution des milieux de la haute montagne alpine, et notamment de la cryosphère face au changement climatique, modifie considérablement les pratiques qui s’y déroulent. Les itinéraires d’alpinisme subissent tout particulièrement ces changements et deviennent parfois difficilement accessibles. L’adaptation est alors nécessaire pour retrouver un équilibre. Les guides de haute montagne font partie de ces professionnels les plus dépendants de l’espace sur lequel ils exercent. De ce fait, ils sont certainement les plus contraints, mais également ceux qui développent le plus de stratégies d’adaptation. L’objectif de cet article est de déterminer de quelle manière les guides de haute montagne de Chamonix et de Courmayeur sont impactés et s’adaptent aux contraintes liées au changement climatique. À travers une étude transfrontalière se nourrissant de méthodes quantitatives et qualitatives, ce travail montre également en quoi les stratégies d’adaptation des guides sont dépendantes des dynamiques des territoires dont ils sont issus.
... The way it modifies the glaciological and geomorphological characteristics of high mountains environments is a crucial topic (Haeberli et al., 2010;Einhorn et al., 2015;Beniston et al., 2018). However, while its impact on alpine skiing is well documented (Paccard, 2009;Joly and Ungureanu, 2018), its consequences on summer practises have been so far the subject of a more limited research. According to initial studies, high Alpine mountains seem to be more dangerous for mountaineering in general (Pröbstl-Haider et al., 2016;Temme, 2015;Ritter et al., 2012). ...
The evolution of the high Alpine mountain environment, especially the cryosphere that faces climate change, deeply modifies the human activities that take place there. The mountaineering routes are directly impacted and they sometimes become inaccessible. In order to recover a good balance, adaptation is necessary. Mountain guides are among the most dependent professionals on the field on which they practice. As a result, they are probably the most impacted professionals but, at the same time, they are also those who can produce a lot of adaptation strategies. The aim of this paper is therefore to identify how mountain guides from Chamonix and Courmayeur are impacted and the different adaptation strategies they developed to face climate change. By this cross-border study, using quantitative and qualitative methods, this paper is also showing that the adaptation strategies are controlled by the territory dynamics.
In this paper, the development and validation of a ski season simulation model (SkiSim 2.0) is described and results of the climate change assessment for 3 ski areas in Tyrol, Austria, are presented. The results of the validation process suggest that SkiSim 2.0 is an appropriate tool to simulate ski season lengths and snowmaking requirements at different altitudes and in different climatic subregions of the study area. Climate change impacts on ski season length are considerably less when incorporating snowmaking. All 3 modelled ski areas remain snow reliable until the 2040s (A1B) to the 2050s (B1). By then, current snowmaking technology has reached its technological limits. The required snow volume until the end of the century is projected to increase by up to 330%. Although snowmaking is a suitable adaptation strategy for the next decades, it is unlikely to be a sustainable adaptation strategy beyond the middle of the century. Besides altitude, local climate characteristics clearly influence ski season length, requiring the use of localized climate data. A comprehensive study of the research area, modelling all ski areas, is needed to assess the vulnerability of the ski marketplace in Tyrol.
Les domaines skiables sur glacier ont joué un rôle toujours plus important durant les saisons hivernales de la dernière décennie. Pendant les trois hivers pauvres en neige entre 1987 et 1990, on a vu que seuls les domaines avec glaciers peuvent assurer à la fois un démarrage précoce de la saison de ski hivernal et des conditions d'enneigement favorables durant la saison d'hiver. L'avenir du ski sur glacier en Suisse, en été tout comme en hiver, dépend largement des conséquences du changement climatique prévu et qui est dû au réchauffement global. En raison du retrait glacier continu, on s'attend à des réductions sensibles des fréquentations des domaines skiables d'été. De par l'élévation prévue de la limite des neiges en hiver, la demande dans le domaine du tourisme de ski se concentrera sur les altitudes plus élevées. En même temps, les domaines skiables à basse altitude perdront leur tourisme de ski et, par conséquent, leur base économique. Dans les domaines skiables sur glacier, on s'attend à un nombre toujours croissant des passagers transportés.
Winter tourism is highly sensitive to climate change. The sufficiently studied altitudinally dependent line of natural snow reliability is losing its relevance for skilift operators in Austria, where 59% of the ski area is covered by artificial snowmaking. But the diffusion of snowmaking facilities cannot be monocausally linked to climate change, as trends in tourism, prestige, and competitive advantage are important factors. Despite the fact that snowmaking is limited by climatological factors, skilift operators trust in technical improvements and believe the future will not be as menacing as assumed by recent climate change impact studies. The aim of the present study is to define reasons for the diffusion of snowmaking systems and to determine whether snowmaking can be a viable adaptation strategy despite ongoing warming, using a simple degree-day model. Results obtained with this method of assessing technical snow reliability show that current snowmaking intensity will not be sufficient to guarantee the desired 100-day season at elevations below 1500–1600 m. Snowmaking will still be possible climatically even at lower elevations, but the required intensification of capacity will lead to significantly higher operation costs.
The number of days with snow cover at 268 Alpine climate stations in the winters of 1961–2000 has been investigated with respect to the mean winter temperature over Europe. The corresponding description, originally developed for Austria and recently applied to Switzerland, consists in fitting a logistic curve to the observed data. The slope of this curve, originally the hyperbolic tangent function, is interpreted as the sensitivity of the snow duration-temperature relationship.
Here we first demonstrate with a physical-statistical model that the proper logistic curve is not the hyperbolic tangent, but the error function, generated through the pdf of the fluctuating temperature; the slope of this curve is inversely proportional to the standard deviation of temperature. Since the station temperature used for this local model is on a scale much too small for global climate models, we simulate, secondly, the temperature with the concept of the Alpine temperature: It is the spatial Taylor expansion of the seasonal European temperature in vertical and horizontal directions. This improved model yields, for the same Austrian and Swiss data, both a better fit and a slightly smaller sensitivity of the snow-temperature curve than the original hyperbolic model.
Thirdly we apply our improved model to a considerably larger Alpine data set comprising also data from France, Germany, Italy and Slovenia and find a sensitivity of about − 0.33 ( ± 0.03) per degree warming. It is representative for the entire Alpine region and corresponds to a maximum reduction of the snow cover of 30 days in winter at a height of 700 m for 1° European warming. The implication is that the relation between the natural fluctuations of winter snow duration and European temperature may be an estimate for a trend of snow duration in case of a future European temperature trend. Copyright
Atlante Climatico Della Valle D’aosta
- L Mercalli
- Cat Berro
- D Montuschi
Changements climatiques dans les alpes europeennes, adapter le tourisme d’hiver et la gestion des risques naturels
- S Agrawala