Article

Aggregated Preference Value Analysis of Small Satellite Launch Opportunities

Authors:
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the authors.

Abstract

Due to the lack of matched dedicated small satellite launch vehicles, launch opportunities as a rideshare or piggyback using a highly reliable launch system has become increasingly important for small satellite developers. The objective of this paper is to provide an aggregated value method as a strategy for developers to evaluate launch opportunities, as well as an approach for the launchers to capture the market dynamics. Based on an up-to-date launch record, a reliable launch database for multi-attribute evaluation is established. Efforts are made to quantify the abstract and concrete attributes of launch systems. An aggregated preference value model is developed, translating different inherited capabilities of launch systems into integrated preference value as a reference for decision-making. The preference values of the launch opportunities of different launch vehicles are explored in a case study by the method proposed, and its feasibility and applicability for small satellite launch system evaluation tasks is validated.

No full-text available

Request Full-text Paper PDF

To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.

... The launch performance of a commercial launch vehicle system is inherently linked to parameters defining its characteristics. 15,16) According to the results of the previous analysis, the basic launch capability for future mainstream small satellite missions is to launch a small satellite into the LEO within an altitude of 1500 km. 17) Therefore, the transportation ability and the economic cost are measured by LEO payloads and the unit LEO price in this study. ...
... As for the availability, which presents the compatibility of the launch schedule between launchers and small satellite operators, a detailed analysis of this metric can be found in our previous research. 15,16) It has been shown that the sample mean launch cycle is preferred to indicate the level of availability of launch opportunities. ...
... A detailed derivation and explanation can be accessed from previous research. 15,16) Therefore, these five variables can be classified into two types: 1) Type-1: LEO unit cost and average launch cycle, and 2) Type-2: LEO payload capability, reliability, and total launch times. ...
Article
In recent years, there has been a steady increase in the small satellite launch market. With the rapid development of novel launchers, for small satellite owners and operators, how to effectively and efficiently choose appropriate launch vehicles has become a major concern. Based on updated launch records, a reliable launch data source for multi-attribute evaluation and reclassification is established. Using a statistical classification process, active launch vehicles are classified into five representative-in-class launchers on the basis of their capabilities and performance. Unlike the previous categorisation based on payload ability, this method captures launch cost, technology maturity, reliability and availability of each category within the current launch vehicles in service. Moreover, representatives are selected as the baseline types for the high-level planning and designing of complex small satellite launch missions. The analysis indicates that this study provides a valid statistical classification and selection strategy of representative-in-class launch vehicles to support decision-making for rapid assessment on a large number of small satellite launch missions.
... The launch performance of a commercial launch vehicle system is clearly linked to the parameters defining its payload capability, affordability, reliability and availability. 13) According to results of the previous analysis, the basic launch capability for future mainstream small satellite missions is to launch a small satellite into the LEO with an semi-major axis(SMA) of 1500km. 10) Although the exclusion of the SSO and GTO data might affect the clustering results, it is considered more reasonable for the assessment of current launch vehicle systems for the small satellite launch missions. ...
... As for the reliability, two metrics, namely the total launch times and reliability are introduced to measure this performance characteristic. Detailed analysis on the availability in the previous research 13) has shown that the sample mean launch cycle is preferred to indicate the level of availability and the shorter the launch cycle is the more frequent the launch system is in action. ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In recent years, there have been a steady increase in the small satellite launch market. With the rapid development of novel launchers, for small satellite operators, how to effectively and efficiently choose appropriate launch vehicles has become the major concern. Based on the updated launch record, a reliable launch data source for multi-attribute evaluation and re-classification is established. Using a statistical classification process, current active launch vehicles are classified and reduced to four representative-in-class launchers on the basis of their capabilities and performance. Unlike previous categorisation based on payload ability, this method captures launch cost, technology maturity, reliability and availability of each category within the active launch vehicles. Moreover, representatives are selected as the baseline types for the high-level planning and designing of complex small satellite launch missions. A multi-attributes optimisation case study is conducted with the active launch vehicle database replaced by the representatives. Results have shown that this paper provides a valid statistical classification and selection strategy of representative-in-class launch vehicles to support decision making for rapid assessment on a large number of small satellite launch missions.
Article
Full-text available
As minaturisation of ever improving enabling technologies increase the capabilities of small satellites, the issue of commercially affordable access to Earth orbit becomes more significant. Whilst the current practice of multiple manifesting is dominant, the emergence of new small launch vehicles may instigate a transition to the dedicated launch of these small satellites. A brief review of the current range of launch vehicles is presented and available small satellite launch market projections briefly examined. The small launch vehicles currently in development are also outlined and their potential to drive the future small satellite launch market discussed.
Article
Data for space launches and launch vehicles from 2000 to 2013 are analyzed to rate the relative capability and cost-effectiveness of launch vehicles for missions. The masses of mission payloads are used to determine the cost of payload mass delivered to low Earth and geosynchronous transfer orbits. These costs are higher due to wastage of launch vehicle capacity totaling 20.4% for the studied missions. A minimum cost scenario is then studied, where the lowest cost launch vehicle capable of performing a mission is used. In this scenario, the total price over the studied period for launches with complete data would be reduced from 44.2Bto44.2B to 33.4B, a savings of 24.5%. Usage is then compared with this scenario, and it is found that the cheapest launch vehicle capable of performing a mission is only used for 20.4% of studied missions.
Article
A new effective and computationally efficient approach for design optimization, hereby entitled physical programming, is developed. This new approach is intended to substantially reduce the computational intensity of large problems and to place the design process into a more flexible and natural framework. Knowledge of the desired attributes of the optimal design is judiciously exploited. For each attribute of interest to the designer (each criterion), regions are defined that delineate degrees of desirability: unacceptable, highly undesirable, undesirable, tolerable, desirable, and highly desirable. This approach completely eliminates the need for iterative weight setting, which is the object of the typical computational bottleneck in large design optimization problems. Two key advantages of physical programming are 1) once the designer's preferences are articulated, obtaining the corresponding optimal design is a noniterative process - in stark contrast to conventional weight-based methods and 2) it provides the means to reliably employ optimization with minimal prior knowledge thereof. The mathematical infrastructure that supports the physical programming design optimization framework is developed, and a numerical example provided. Physical programming is a new approach to realistic design optimization that may be appealing to the design engineer in an industrial setting.
Article
One of the tasks of decision-making support systems is to develop methods that help the designer select a solution among a set of actions, e.g. by constructing a function expressing his/her preferences over a set of potential solutions. In this paper, a new method to solve multiobjective optimization (MOO) problems is developed in which the user’s information about his/her preferences is taken into account within the search process. Preference functions are built that reflect the decision-maker’s (DM) interests and use meaningful parameters for each objective. The preference functions convert these objective preferences into numbers. Next, a single objective is automatically built and no weight selection is performed. Problems found due to the multimodality nature of a generated single cost index are managed with Genetic Algorithms (GAs). Three examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the method.
Article
This article was published in the journal, Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part E: Journal of Process Mechanical Engineering [© IMechE / Professional Engineering Publishing] and is also available at: http://archive.pepublishing.com/content/120026/ The assessment of mechanical systems is not an exact science and predictions can be subject to considerable uncertainty. In this paper the particular problems of mechanical system reliability assessment are discussed and a general methodology presented based on experience from availability studies carried out on offshore and onshore process plant.
Article
This paper illustrates by using a simple coin-tossing example how the new discipline of decision analysis sheds light on the perennial problems of inference, decision, and experimentation. The inference problem is first discussed from the classical viewpoints of maximum likelihood estimation and hypothesis testing, and then from the viewpoint of subjective probability and Bayesian updating. The problem is next placed in a decision setting to demonstrate how an estimate is related to the nature of the loss structure. Experimental possibilities are evaluated for the case where the size of the experiment must be determined a priori and for the case where experimentation can cease at any point. The decision-analysis philosophy allows consideration of all these problems within one philosophical and methodological framework.
Glossary Defense Acquisition Acronyms and Terms, The Department of Defense Systems Management College
  • W D Jones
  • Jr
Jones, W. D., Jr.: Glossary Defense Acquisition Acronyms and Terms, The Department of Defense Systems Management College, Fort Belvoir, VA, 1991.
Small Satellite Market Observations
  • E Buchen
Buchen, E.: Small Satellite Market Observations, Proceedings of the AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites, Logan, UT, USA, Aug. 2015.
Small Launch Vehicles - A 2015 State of the Industry Survey
  • C Niederstrasser
  • W Frick
Niederstrasser, C. and Frick, W.: Small Launch Vehicles -A 2015 State of the Industry Survey, AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites, Logan, UT, USA, Technical Session VII: Opportunities, Trends and Initiatives, 2015.
Small Satellite Launch Opportunities: Statistical Analysis and Trend Forecast, the 67th International Aeronautical Congress
  • Q Xu
  • M Zhang
  • Z Hao
  • P Hollingsworth
  • K Smith
Xu, Q., Zhang, M., Hao, Z., Hollingsworth, P., and Smith, K.: Small Satellite Launch Opportunities: Statistical Analysis and Trend Forecast, the 67th International Aeronautical Congress, Guadalajara, Mexico, 2016, IAC-16,B4,5,9,x35391.
  • R Borah
Borah, R.: In India, the Modi Juggernaut Rolls On, Global Asia: J. East Asia Foundation, 12 (2017), p. 98.