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Aspectos do clima urbano de Curitiba/PR: Uma abordagem do campo térmico e sua influência sobre a ocorrência da dengue
Abstract
Entendendo as características ambientais enquanto condicionantes ou limitantes à proliferação de determinadas patologias, esta pesquisa de Iniciação Científica, inserida dentro do projeto “Clima urbano e dengue nas cidades brasileiras”, pretendeu analisar a dinâmica da dengue em relação ao campo térmico de Curitiba, partindo da identificação de condicionantes propícias para o aparecimento de focos do vetor. Com a utilização de dados da temperatura do solo obtidas através do sensor MODIS, foi possível a identificação de ilhas de calor, passíveis de intensificação em alguns cenários de mudança do clima em escala global e local. A espacialização dessas condições permitiu analisar quais áreas da cidade apresentaram temperaturas mais elevadas, evidenciando gradientes de temperatura de até 8º C no perímetro urbano da cidade. Verificou-se em determinadas zonas, a presença de condicionantes ambientais e sociais propicias ao aparecimento de focos de Aedes Aegypti, o que ressalta a importância de ações de enfrentamento nas mesmas.
... UHI is related to the incidence of locations of heightened disease risk, such as dengue fever. Lunardon (2017) pointed out that there are greater risks regarding the proliferation of the disease vector in Curitiba neighborhoods with a higher incidence of the heat island effect. ...
Thermal variation is a common urban phenomenon, from small to large cities, both due to anthropic origin and natural causes. Due to the influence of COVID 19, there was a reduction in social activities, mainly economic, which impacted both industrial production and the decrease in vehicle circulation. Such changes in habits affect urban thermal dynamics. Thus, the objective of the study is to identify whether the reduction of socioeconomic activities has affected the patterns of thermal variation in Curitiba, Brazil. For this analysis, Landsat 8 images from the years 2018, 2019 and 2020 were used to verify the temperature variation in the region, and the NDVI index was applied to verify the variation in permeable area in the capital. Thus, it was possible to observe that the average total surface temperature of Curitiba decreased by 1.6° C. It was also seen that in some areas the reduction was greater than others, and the variation between minimum and maximum temperature was 13.3° C. It is noteworthy that due to the reduction in green areas in the region, an increase in temperature was expected. The areas with the greatest change in temperature in degrees were those with large roads in Curitiba, places whose population has a low salary compared to more central neighbourhoods in the city. Although the virus raises great concern about the health of the population, a significant decrease in temperature can be observed, mainly caused by the circulation of vehicles.
This research is premised to understand the high spatial rainfall variability for the study area from the influence of attributes such as maritimity, orography and the diversity of atmospheric mechanisms for rainfall generation. The goal of this research is to measure the pluviometric variability and the occurrence of extreme rainfall events for the Alto Iguaçu, Litorânea and Ribeira river basins (RB), located in the eastern region of the State of Paraná, analyzing the most intense events and the influence of factors such as orography, maritime dimension and atmospheric dynamics. To that end, the daily, monthly and yearly rainfall data of 54 pluviometric stations of the “Instituto das Águas do Paraná”, the “Agência Nacional de Águas”, and the “Companhia Paranaense de Energia”, as well as data from 08 weather stations of the “Instituto Agronômico do Paraná”, “Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia” and “Sistema Meteorológico do Paraná”, for the period of 1976 to 2015 were obtained. The following methodological procedures were used: kriging for the rainfall spatial characterization and the group analysis (Ward and K-Means) to obtain homogeneous pluviometric regions in each river basin; the quantiles for the classification and identification of extreme rainfall events; the vector autoregressive model (VAR) for analyzing the correlation between the pluviometric anomalies and the maritime indicators (IOS, ONI, ODP and GMAT), from the data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; The Mann-Kendall and Pettit statistic tests for evaluating trends and breaks in the pluviometric historical series; in order to create the rainfall trend indicators, the software RClimDex, developed by the Canadian Meteorological System was used; the synoptic conditions for the extreme rainfall events were defined by the Climate Rhythmic Analysis, while the pluviometric origin was analyzed by the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC). The spatial analysis has shown a rainfall structure of greater yearly and daily amounts in the Litorânea river basin and at leeward of the Serra do Mar (Sea Ridge), an expressive sector of the Ribeira river basin presents a significant reduction of the yearly and daily rainfall amounts compared to the sea coast. The VAR model has shown that the climate indicator ONI is the one which presented greater significance and spatial breadth to determine the rainfall anomalies in the studied area. The trend test (Mann-Kendall) and the climate indicators have shown that the studied area presents the predominant rise of the yearly rainfall amounts associated to the increase of the daily concentrated rainfall amount, which is indicative of climate changes in the studied area. The main breaks in the historic series happened in the 1990’s, similarly to the other breaks that had been observed in the State of Paraná. The Climate Rhythmic Analysis has shown that during winter there is a predominance of cold fronts and the rainfall amounts are more spatially homogeneous, while during the summer it was observed larger spatial differences and atmospheric conditions more frequently associated to the extratropical atmospheric systems. The SCC has shown that humid climate types happen more frequently in Paranaguá, due to the oceanity and, in Castro and Curitiba, the typologies have indicated a greater frequency of the climate types associated to the extratropical atmospheric systems.
The present study aims to analyze the intensity of daily extreme rainfall and trends for precipitation in Castro, Curitiba and Paranaguá stations, located in the state of Paraná, Brazil. Historical series of rainfall registered by the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology were used considering the period from 1976 to 2015. The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt statistical tests were applied to identify trends and ruptures in historical rainfall series. Other indicators of trends in rainfall and temperature were calculated using the RClimDex software, developed by the Cana-dian Meteorological System. The classification of cumulative daily rainfall in 24 h with the application of the quantile technique was defined as a standard for percentiles. The months of January, February and December presented greater occurrence frequency of rainfall equal to or greater than 95% and 99% of the quantiles for all locations. The comparative analysis showed that Paranaguá station has the largest accumulated values of rainfall in 24 h during the rainiest months, between September and April, while Castro and Curitiba stations recorded the highest daily totals between May and August. Increasing daily precipitation totals were identified in all quantile's classes with statistical significance only in Curitiba and Paranaguá station, which is attributed to greater urban densities and its direct impacts over daily rainfall totals. Significant trends for increased rainfall were observed, especially in Curitiba, a condition that is associated with the expressive and also significant increase in climate indicators of air temperature.
Estimates indicate that by 2050, 70% of the world's population will live in urban areas, expanding the total built-up space and density of those areas. The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon causes increased temperatures in urban areas compared to outlying regions. It is considered one of the main anthropogenic climate modifications and is directly linked to land-use patterns. The objective of this study was to analyze the presence of the UHI effect, diurnal and nocturnal, in the dry season in 21 Brazilian metropolitan areas from 2000 to 2016. Surface temperature, mean albedo, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values generated by the MODIS sensor (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) were used. The results obtained showed substantial differences between diurnal and nocturnal UHI effects. Manaus, Porto Alegre, Belém, and Recife presented the highest values of diurnal UHI, whereas Curitiba, Brasília, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro showed higher heat island effects at night. The results are an alert to policymakers of the need to rethink land occupation regulations and also give support to actions to mitigate the phenomenon.
There is much uncertainty about the future impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Such uncertainty reflects the difficulties in modelling the complex interactions between disease, climatic and socioeconomic determinants. We used a comprehensive panel dataset from Mexico covering 23 years of province-specific dengue reports across nine climatic regions to estimate the impact of weather on dengue, accounting for the effects of non-climatic factors.
Using a Generalized Additive Model, we estimated statistically significant effects of weather and access to piped water on dengue. The effects of weather were highly nonlinear. Minimum temperature (Tmin) had almost no effect on dengue incidence below 5°C, but Tmin values above 18°C showed a rapidly increasing effect. Maximum temperature above 20°C also showed an increasing effect on dengue incidence with a peak around 32°C, after which the effect declined. There is also an increasing effect of precipitation as it rose to about 550 mm, beyond which such effect declines. Rising access to piped water was related to increasing dengue incidence. We used our model estimations to project the potential impact of climate change on dengue incidence under three emission scenarios by 2030, 2050, and 2080. An increase of up to 40% in dengue incidence by 2080 was estimated under climate change while holding the other driving factors constant.
Our results indicate that weather significantly influences dengue incidence in Mexico and that such relationships are highly nonlinear. These findings highlight the importance of using flexible model specifications when analysing weather-health interactions. Climate change may contribute to an increase in dengue incidence. Rising access to piped water may aggravate dengue incidence if it leads to increased domestic water storage. Climate change may therefore influence the success or failure of future efforts against dengue.
Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. While these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent.
We identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change.
We review the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. The potential contribution of climate driven, process-based dengue models is assessed, and suggestions are provided to improve their performance.
Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system, while simultaneously decreasing potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and interactions between host species.
Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.
Las relaciones entre la geografía y la salud fueron reconocidas desde la Antiguedad. Esfuerzos aislados e inconstantes caracterizan la investigación de estas relaciones. El presente artículo tiene como objetivo una exploración de las potencialidades de articulación del referencial teórico y metodológico de la geografía en el conocimiento y la interpretación de la salud de la población. Aborda los antecedentes de la geografía médica o de la salud, la utilización del marco teórico-metodológico del espacio geográfico, e identifica las alternativas para su operacionalización. Por último son colocadas algunas reflexiones acerca del desarrollo actual de las relaciones entre la geografía y la salud en América Latina, así como las alternativas de su desarrollo.
The four dengue viruses, the agents of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever in humans, are transmitted predominantly by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. The abundance and the transmission potential of Ae. aegypti are influenced by temperature and precipitation. While there is strong biological evidence for these effects, empirical studies of the relationship between climate and dengue incidence in human populations are potentially confounded by seasonal covariation and spatial heterogeneity. Using 20 years of data and a statistical approach to control for seasonality, we show a positive and statistically significant association between monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and monthly changes in dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. We also found that the strength of this association varies spatially, that this variation is associated with differences in local climate, and that this relationship is consistent with laboratory studies of the impacts of these factors on vector survival and viral replication. These results suggest the importance of temperature and precipitation in the transmission of dengue viruses and suggest a reason for their spatial heterogeneity. Thus, while dengue transmission may have a general system, its manifestation on a local scale may differ from global expectations.
Orientador: Francisco Mendonça Co-orientador: Paulo Henrique Battaglin Machado Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Setor de Ciencias da Terra, Programa de Pós-Graduaçao em Geografia. Defesa: Curitiba, 2006 Inclui bibliografia e anexos Área de concentração: Espaço, sociedade e ambiente
Orientador: Francisco Mendonça Dissertaçăo (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Setor de Cięncias da Terra, Programa de Pós-Graduaçăo em Geografia. Defesa: Curitiba, 2005 Inclui bibliografia e anexos
Existing theoretical models of the potential effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases do not account for social factors such as population increase, or interactions between climate variables. Our aim was to investigate the potential effects of global climate change on human health, and in particular, on the transmission of vector-borne diseases.
We modelled the reported global distribution of dengue fever on the basis of vapour pressure, which is a measure of humidity. We assessed changes in the geographical limits of dengue fever transmission, and in the number of people at risk of dengue by incorporating future climate change and human population projections into our model.
We showed that the current geographical limits of dengue fever transmission can be modelled with 89% accuracy on the basis of long-term average vapour pressure. In 1990, almost 30% of the world population, 1.5 billion people, lived in regions where the estimated risk of dengue transmission was greater than 50%. With population and climate change projections for 2085, we estimate that about 5-6 billion people (50-60% of the projected global population) would be at risk of dengue transmission, compared with 3.5 billion people, or 35% of the population, if climate change did not happen.
We conclude that climate change is likely to increase the area of land with a climate suitable for dengue fever transmission, and that if no other contributing factors were to change, a large proportion of the human population would then be put at risk.
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