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The Use of System Dynamics Model to Enhance Integrated Resources Planning Implementation

DOI:10.1007/s11269-018-1926-4
Authors:
Jesus Gastelum at Elsinore Valley Municipal Water District
Jesus Gastelum
  • Elsinore Valley Municipal Water District
Ganesh Krishnamurthy
Ganesh Krishnamurthy
Ganesh Krishnamurthy
  • This person is not on ResearchGate, or hasn't claimed this research yet.
Nemesciano Ochoa at Crescenta Valley Water District
Nemesciano Ochoa
  • Crescenta Valley Water District
Shane Sibbett
Shane Sibbett
Shane Sibbett
  • This person is not on ResearchGate, or hasn't claimed this research yet.
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Abstract and Figures

Elsinore Valley Municipal Water District (EVMWD), like many other water agencies in southern California, relies heavily on imported water supply. The uncertainty associated with reliable imported water supplies due to drought conditions and climate change, and the increasing cost of imported water are areas of concern for EVMWD. Considering these conditions, EVMWD, which serves one of the fastest growing regions within Riverside County, embarked upon the development of its first Integrated Resources Plan (IRP) – a long term strategy for providing reliable water supplies to its growing customer base. The IRP’s evaluation methodology consists of three steps: Identification of potential water supply projects, project evaluation, and recommendation of a water supply portfolio comprised of the specific projects. A System Dynamics (SD) Water Resources Decision Support System (WRDSS) was used to evaluate different scenarios and examine EVMWD’s vulnerability to risks such as water supply shortage, and changes to water quality and/or water demand projections. Even though SD has been extensively applied to many water resources planning modeling efforts, based on our literature review, there is not a documented case of SD modeling applied to an IRP project. The recommended water supply portfolio represents the most cost effective option. It meets the forecasted long term deficit and provides the best reliability while providing good quality water supplies to EVMWD’s customers. The recommended water supply portfolio will be implemented using an adaptive management approach to adjust to changing conditions, coupled with long-range resource management policies that optimize water supply and storage assets in times of both drought and surplus.
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The Use of System Dynamics Model to Enhance Integrated
Resources Planning Implementation
Jesus R. Gastelum
1
&Ganesh Krishnamurthy
1,2
&
Nemesciano Ochoa
1
&Shane Sibbett
1
&
Margie Armstrong
1
&Parag Kalaria
1
Received: 30 July 2017 /Accepted: 2 February 2018 /
Published online: 23 February 2018
#Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018
Abstract Elsinore Valley Municipal Water District (EVMWD), like many other water agen-
cies in southern California, relies heavily on imported water supply. The uncertainty associated
with reliable imported water supplies due to drought conditions and climate change, and the
increasing cost of imported water are areas of concern for EVMWD. Considering these
conditions, EVMWD, which serves one of the fastest growing regions within Riverside
County, embarked upon the development of its first Integrated Resources Plan (IRP) –a long
term strategy for providing reliable water supplies to its growing customer base. The IRP’s
evaluation methodology consists of three steps: Identification of potential water supply
projects, project evaluation, and recommendation of a water supply portfolio comprised of
the specific projects. A System Dynamics (SD) Water Resources Decision Support System
(WRDSS) was used to evaluate different scenarios and examine EVMWD’s vulnerability to
risks such as water supply shortage, and changes to water quality and/or water demand
Water Resour Manage (2018) 32:2247–2260
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-1926-4
*Jesus R. Gastelum
jgastelum@evmwd.net
Ganesh Krishnamurthy
ganesh@dropcountr.com
Nemesciano Ochoa
nochoa@evmwd.net
Shane Sibbett
ssibbett@evmwd.net
Margie Armstrong
marmstrong@evmwd.net
Parag Kalaria
pkalaria@evmwd.net
1
Elsinore Valley Municipal Water District, Lake Elsinore, CA, USA
2
Dropcountr, San Francisco, CA, USA
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.
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