Article

The role of perceived competence and risk perception in cycling near misses

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Abstract

Cyclists' crashes account for a relatively large proportion of road fatalities and this proportion is increasing. Research suggests that near misses can be used as surrogate measures of crashes, based on the assumption that they share common causes. Also, in the cycling domain, it has been suggested that near miss incidents may provide 'early warnings' of situations or behaviours that could lead to crashes. The aim of this study was to investigate the role played by perception of risk and control on the exposure to risky situations, such as the involvement in mixed traffic. We administered a questionnaire to 298 Italian cyclists measuring perceived competence (i.e. perceived control and overconfidence), risk perception of interactions with cars, bicycle use, avoidance of mixed traffic and recent experiences of near misses. Path analysis using Bayesian estimation showed that perceived control, mediated by overconfidence, had a positive indirect effect on bicycle use and a negative one on avoidance of mixed traffic, while it acted as a moderator in the relationship between risk perception of interaction with cars and avoidance of mixed traffic. Furthermore, the mediation paths revealed the indirect effects of perceived control on near misses through exposure. Results highlighted the importance of considering the role of individuals' perception of their ability to cycle with regard to near misses and provided new insight on how cyclists regulate their behaviour, as well as how such behaviour leads to different safety outcomes. Results have implications regarding theory, infrastructure and the application of new safety technologies .

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... We theorized that instrumental attributes might be associated with an increased risk of bicycle crash (Hypothesis 1) because cyclists endorsing instrumental attributes see traffic situations as more controllable and predictable. Previous research among cyclists revealed that overconfidence in cyclists' skills is associated with a higher risk of near misses (12) and with a relatively lower risk perception of dangerous traffic situations, such as committing a violation (13). In addition, overconfidence among cyclists may lead to not avoiding traffic situations (e.g., dangerous interactions with motorized vehicles) that, otherwise, would be considered hazardous (12). ...
... Previous research among cyclists revealed that overconfidence in cyclists' skills is associated with a higher risk of near misses (12) and with a relatively lower risk perception of dangerous traffic situations, such as committing a violation (13). In addition, overconfidence among cyclists may lead to not avoiding traffic situations (e.g., dangerous interactions with motorized vehicles) that, otherwise, would be considered hazardous (12). Indeed, cyclists report experiences of abuse and harassment from motorists in mixed traffic conditions (14,15). ...
... Chataway et al. revealed that cyclists in an emerging cycling city are more likely to report higher levels of perceived risk in relation to the interaction with motorized vehicles than those in an established cycling city (16). Although previous research focused on perceived risk in relation to the interaction with motorized vehicles (12), to date, no studies have focused on the evaluation of motorist and van/lorry driver driving behavior among cyclists. There is evidence that avoidance of cycling in mixed traffic conditions, even if it means cycling on a longer route, is one coping strategy to reduce exposure to mixed traffic and minimize feeling unsafe (12,14,16). ...
Article
Previous studies have revealed the relevance of e-bike use, perception of driving behavior of motorists, and instrumental and affective factors in work and leisure journeys among regular cyclists. However, the importance of these factors as predictors of bicycle crash involvement and severity is less well-known. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of journey attributes, e-bike use, and perception of driving behavior of motorists in predicting bicycle crash involvement and severity , while controlling for sociodemographic factors, cycling levels, cycling environment, and purposes of cycling. We collected data from an online panel of 2,389 respondents from six European countries (Sweden, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Hungary, Italy, Spain). Using the generalized linear model, we found that both bicycle crash involvement and severity were related to lower age, being employed, using the bicycle for traveling to or from college/university, not using the bicycle for lei-sure/training, and using an e-bike. Bicycle crash severity was associated with lower affective attributes, higher instrumental attributes, and the perception of good driving behavior of motorists.
... High-risk perception and safety concerns are considered among the most significant psychosocial barriers that prevent people from cycling more (Koglin and Rye 2014;Pucher and Dijkstra 2000;Majumdar et al. 2020). Cyclists' perception of risk regarding safety outcomes is deemed to shape mode choice (Puchades et al. 2018;Ul-Abdin et al. 2019). Specifically, the risk of having a crash is found to be one of the most frequently mentioned deterrents to cycling (Parkin et al. 2007;Heinen et al. 2010), including among those who cycle regularly (Bauman et al. 2008). ...
... Even if, contrarily to our expectations, cyclists from the U.K. tend to report higher evaluations of motorists' behaviuour, results show that cyclists from Italy and Spain (which can be considered emerging cycling countries) tend to report lower evaluations of motorists behaviour. This is particularly relevant, as it has been argued that to cope with negative feelings arising from the exposure to motorists' behaviour, cyclists tend to avoid cycling in mixed traffic conditions, and sometimes avoid cycling in general (Prati et al. 2020;Puchades et al. 2018;O'Connor and Brown 2010). This implies that, in low cycling culture countries, promoting cycling becomes particularly difficult if motorised vehicles behaviour is not addressed. ...
Article
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This study uses cluster analysis on a sample of regular cyclists from six European countries (the U.K., the Netherlands, Sweden, Hungary, Italy, and Spain) to shed light on common cycling patterns, demographic characteristics, and attitudes. Participants completed an online survey on cycling behaviour, attitudes towards cycling, discomfort while cycling in mixed traffic, cycling environment and comparative cycling risk perception. A two-step cluster analysis was performed to identify segments of cyclists based on cycling patterns, and a multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to profile the segments. The two-step cluster analysis yielded three components. Leisure-time cyclists cycled almost exclusively for leisure/training, had a clear preference for car use relative to bicycle, and low riding frequency. Resolute Cyclists were characterised by a high variety of cycling trip purpose, a clear preference for bicycle use relative to the car, and high riding frequency. Convenience Cyclists were characterised by cycling for personal business or leisure/train-ing but not for commuting, no evident preference for bicycle vs car, and medium riding frequency. The value of the present study is to highlight commonalities in patterns, characteristics , and attitudes of cyclists in Europe. Our study showed that cycling patterns and habits are linked to psychosocial variables such as attitudes and the cycling environment, explicitly highlighting the importance of discomfort in mixed traffic and the relationship with cycling culture.
... Roads with cycle tracks are considered safer by cyclists than shared traffic roads. As a compromise of these two extremes, the cycle lanes are safer than shared traffic roads but less safe than cycle tracks [21]. ...
... A crash is a relatively rare event when compared to the number of near miss incidents that can be more effectively collected also in short time. Moreover, near misses are more frequently experienced by cyclists and significantly associated with observations of traffic hazard, which ultimately affect whether and how often people cycle [21,38,39]. Thus, collecting SCEs data allows for bigger data sets to be generated and enables earlier detection of problematic areas supported though robust statistical analysis [40,41]. ...
Article
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The opportunities for data collection in smart cities and communities provide new approaches for assessing risk of roadway components. This paper presents and compares two different methodological approaches for cycling safety assessment of objective and perceived risk. Objective risk was derived from speed and direction profiles collected with Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and camera installed on an instrumented bicycle. Safety critical events between cyclists and other road users were identified and linked to five different roadway components. A panel of experts was asked to score the severity of the safety critical events using a Delphi process to reach consensus. To estimate the perceived risk, a web-based survey was provided to the city bicyclist community asking them to score the same five roadway components with a 4-point Likert scale. A comparison between perceived and objective risk classification of the roadway components showed a good agreement when only higher severity conflicts were considered. The research findings support the notion that it is possible to collect information from bicycle probe data that match and user perceptions and thus, utilizing them to take advantage of such data in advancing the goals of in smart cities and communities.
... Flanders is interesting since it possesses relatively higher cycling levels, with alarming higher perceived risk, flat terrain and good cycling culture. Perception of risk is considered influential in choice adoption in various situations specially for cyclist's safety outcomes (Puchades, Fassina, Fraboni, Angelis, Prati, Waard and Pietrantoni, 2018). Higher perceived risk leads us to foresee how, where, which factors need to be investigated, to later increase cycling adoption. ...
... Higher perceived control stimulates a cyclist to engage and ride in an unsafe situation, for instance of mixed traffic situations (Kaplan et al., 2019) . But higher perceived control may lead to overconfident situations leading to the dangerous situations (Puchades et al., 2018). ...
Thesis
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This doctoral dissertation identifies and assesses in detail the top three mobility attributes which lead to a crash considering vulnerable road users (VRUs) i.e. bicyclists. According to Sabey and Taylor (1980), the top three attributes contributing to crashes are the environment, the road user and the vehicle. Thus, this dissertation investigates the attributes associated with bicycle design and behavioural attributes in detail, within its framework. The current mobility issues such as congestion, crashes, cost and safety are the prominent concern for traffic safety researchers. The use of a bicycle is seen as a healthy alternative without having econometric or social constraints, especially in developed countries like Belgium. Yet the abundant number of bicycle crashes does have significant impact on bicycle adoption. The attributes identified by Sabey and Taylor (1980) are further discussed in detail in three different parts in this manuscript, named Part-I, Part-II, Part-III. The first part gives a generic introduction to the topic, discusses the problem statement and explains the theoretical framework for the multidimensional approach considering the Swiss cheese model. In addition, part-I identifies the associated research gaps, formulates the research questions considering the framework of the study with respect to environment, road user and vehicle.
... Near-miss is commonly studied in the context of safety in industries as diverse as construction (Raviv, Fishbain, & Shapira, 2017), health (Barach & Small, 2000) and transportation (Marín Puchades et al., 2018;Poulos et al., 2017). In the context of safety, while near-miss avoids extreme outcomes like death and injury, it can act as early warnings of future risk (Marín Puchades et al., 2018). ...
... Near-miss is commonly studied in the context of safety in industries as diverse as construction (Raviv, Fishbain, & Shapira, 2017), health (Barach & Small, 2000) and transportation (Marín Puchades et al., 2018;Poulos et al., 2017). In the context of safety, while near-miss avoids extreme outcomes like death and injury, it can act as early warnings of future risk (Marín Puchades et al., 2018). In the field of management, researchers examined perceptions of decision-making that resulted in either a near-miss, successful outcome, or failed outcome (Dillon & Tinsley, 2008). ...
Article
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A near-miss, such as a narrowly avoided collision between vehicles, evades a full-scale accident but can generate media attention that threatens trust. In emerging industries, the effects of near-miss may extend beyond organizational boundaries and influence trust in the industry and technology. This study empirically tests these assertions by examining how media reports of near-miss affect organizational trustworthiness and how trust repair strategies after a near-miss influence organizational and industry trust and technology acceptance in the emerging commercial industry of unmanned aircraft. Notwithstanding parallels to paracrisis, near-miss communication is understudied in public relations research. Further, studies of trust in the context of crisis are recent (see Brühl et al., 2018; Fuoli et al., 2017), and have produced unexpected results that warrant continued exploration in public relations. Underpinned by attribution theory, this study adopts a 2 (near-miss cause: external, low controllability; internal, high controllability) x 3 (trust repair strategy delivered via news story: denial, excuse, apology) scenario-based experiment. This study found that near-miss reduced organizational trustworthiness regardless of whether the event was controllable or not, indicating that when it comes to trust perceptions, near-miss can operate similarly to crisis. Further, apology was the only strategy that arrested a fall in organizational trustworthiness. The study signaled a trust transfer effect where organizational trust influenced industry trust, which led to the acceptance of unmanned aircraft technology. In the context of emerging industries, these findings have implications for organizations that experience near-miss, highlighting the potential for a standardized initial strategy to acknowledge a reduction in trust in order to support trust beyond the organization.
... perceived control stimulates a cyclist to engage and ride in an unsafe situation, i.e., mixed-traffic situation [8]. But higher perceived control may lead to overconfidence, leading to a dangerous situation [9]. ...
... Yet lower cycling levels raise concern over the safety aspect of the current system. Perception of risk is considered influential in choice adoption in various situations, especially for cyclist's safety outcomes [9]. Higher perceived risk leads us to foresee how, where, which factors need to be investigated, or shall be invested later on to increase cycling adoption. ...
Article
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Risk perception influences cycling attributes toward its adoption. Researchers are investigating attributes associated with risk formation. In this study, various attributes were selected which influence the user's formation of risk perception. For this purpose, an online questionnaire survey was conducted in Flanders, among all segments of the population (N = 774). Participants were asked questions for attributes relating to risk formation. Results suggested that risk formation among users evolves around tangible to non-tangible attributes. The spectrum of risk perception was developed which visualizes risk evolution, considering various attributes. Surprisingly, elements such as "comfort", surface evenness, and policies were rated as being neutral. Infrastructure and the presence of opposite road users tend to be foreseen as critical factors for risk formation. Risk perception varies depending upon psychometric paradigm shifts, such as dread and unknown risk. This strange notion is considered to lie in a space between dread and unknown risk. This explains the difference in risk perception, knowingly or not knowingly (subconsciously), yet expressing cognitively and evolving inside. This is an interesting finding, but reasons behind such a motive need to be explained. A possible explanation behind such behavior is that people tend to change their responses due to knowledge acquisition during the survey.
... The lower likelihood of handheld phone use with perceived behavioural difficulty indicates that higher confidence in own skills is associated with more handheld phone use. This connects to a study by Puchades et al. (2018) that identified an association between high perceived behavioural control and cyclists' overconfidence in their own skills. Overestimation of how well one cycles and distributes attention while using handheld phone could be an underlying explanation for the decreasing likelihood of handheld phone use with perceived behavioural difficulty. ...
Article
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Phone use is likely to distract cyclists and possibly increase crash risk. Therefore, handheld phone use among cyclists is forbidden by law in some countries, even though cyclists use compensatory strategies to attempt to mitigate distractions and related effects. Both demographic, environmental, and psychological factors have been associated with cyclists’ phone use. This study extends the existing literature by including traffic rule beliefs as an explanatory measure in predicting cyclists’ handheld phone use and additionally explores how well cyclists know these rules in different legislative contexts. Online questionnaire responses were collected in 2019 among 1055 cyclists living in Denmark (N = 568), where handheld phone use for cyclists was forbidden, and in the Netherlands (N = 487), where it was legal. Responses on phone use, traffic rule knowledge, cycling behaviour, demographic, and psychological measures were used to identify factors contributing to the likelihood of handheld phone use in three regression models; one for all respondents and one for each country. In the combined model, believing there are no rules on handheld phone use increased the likelihood of handheld phone use while cycling. Other significant factors were subjective norm, perceived behavioural difficulty, self-identity as a safe cyclist as well as demographic factors. The country-specific models found that male gender was only associated with more handheld phone use in the Netherlands, while believing there was no ban was only connected to an increase in the likelihood of using handheld phone in Denmark. Correct traffic rule knowledge was almost three times higher in Denmark, where handheld phone use was forbidden. The results identify subjective norms, potential overconfidence, and traffic rule awareness (when there is a ban) as relevant factors in reducing the likelihood of cyclists’ handheld phone use. Findings from country-specific models possibly point to a connection between culture and traffic rules. Future research should focus on underlying mechanisms and awareness of traffic rules.
... mining, manufacturing, construction, etc.): the analysis will be developed on theoretical studies discussing critical issues about NMSs, and, on studies that propose practical applications. It has to be noted that only studies which refer to the industrial sector will be included, although the concept of near miss is widely diffused in other sectors -such as healthcare and aeronauticswhere, otherwise, different approaches are usually applied (Clark et al., 2012;Marín Puchades et al., 2018). Other inclusion criteria have been defined, considering only articles in English language, and limiting the research to papers from scientific journals, conference proceedings and books. ...
Article
The concept of near miss is quickly wide spreading from pioneer sectors - such as the aviation and the chemical industries- to other ones, like construction and manufacturing. A near miss usually outlines an adverse event that could have caused major harm to someone (i.e. a worker), but did not result in any damage. This diffusion is mainly due to the intrinsic value provided by near miss analysis, as they currently represent a relevant source of information for preventing accidents at the workplace. Although international standards and technical reports have outlined its effectiveness in identifying possible causes of accidents, only a few companies currently apply structured near miss management systems. A near miss management system (NMS) is composed of several processes: from collection to analysis and, finally, dissemination of knowledge to all stakeholders. A standard method to design and manage NMS is not proposed in the international literature; a critical analysis about current near miss management systems is still lacking. The aim of this work is to review scientific literature on this topic, aiming at highlighting best practices and criticalities in its application, thus providing guidelines for developing more effective NMSs. The obtained results outline the state of the art of the application of near miss management systems in industry; positive aspects, limits and further developments are outlined to provide structured information to researchers in addressing current critical issues in NMSs, but also technicians in developing their own effective NMS.
... Useche et al., 2019a); the individual cyclist's competence and confidence (e.g. Marín Puchades et al., 2018); and the individual cycling profile and frequency (Francke et al., 2019). One recent study found that a higher subjective risk perception decreases risky behavior, which in turn reduces the number of self-reported crashes (Useche et al., 2019a). ...
Article
Most research concerned with cyclists' safety has been focused on the crash risk (i.e. their objective safety). However, there has been a growing interest in the perceived level of this risk (i.e. the subjective safety of cyclists). Crash risk and subjective risk perception in urban cycling appear to be mostly well aligned. For example, reduced speed limits have been found to reduce both objective and subjective risks (although there is also evidence for some incongruences). This absolute number of incidents could be misleading, as it does not account for potential differences in cycling volume (i.e. cyclists are likely to prefer streets with reduced speed limits). Thus, it may be important to adjust the absolute number of incidents relative number to the local cycling volume. In this research, we investigate the relation of cycling crashes and subjective risk perception (operationalized through reports from a crowd-sourcing project) for different types of cycling infrastructure and different speed limits, while accounting for the local cycling volume. We find that the absolute number of VGI reports and crashes can be misleading: whereas the absolute incident numbers, for example, suggest few benefits of cycling lanes and tracks, adjusting for the cycling volume reveals an increase of both objective and subjective safety as compared to streets without cycling infrastructure. We also identify situations where cyclists apparently underestimate the crash risk (i.e. on cycleways opposing the cars' traveling direction, and at streets with a speed limit of 30 km/h intersecting streets with higher speed limits). Additional research is required to understand the sources of these discrepancies, and how to make cyclists aware of them.
... In the rural environment, the riskiest situation for cyclist is the interaction with a motorized vehicle [7]. However, the cycling experience can provide higher perceived control over the bicycle, and this fact can lead to cyclists overestimating their own skills (i.e., more overconfidence) to deal with riskier traffic scenarios, such as interaction with other road users [59]. ...
Article
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The use of bicycles on two-lane rural roads in Spain has been increasing in recent years. However, these roads have no bicycle infrastructure, being cyclists forced to share the road and interact with motorized vehicles. In rural environments, the interaction between road users from the cyclist’s point of view is still not well understood. To analyze it, the relationships between risk perceptions and behavioral factors of rural cyclists according to their demographic characteristics, profile, and self-reported knowledge on traffic rules were obtained. An online survey was used, which collected the opinion of 523 cyclists. Data were analyzed by using structural equation models. The Thurstonian Item Response Theory approach was adopted to include raking responses. Different perceptions among demographic groups were found. Younger cyclists present the lowest risk perception while having a higher risk behavior. The knowledge about traffic rules was correlated with safety behavior, showing the importance of this factor. These results are in line with urban cycling. However important differences under risk elements for rural cyclists, mainly associated with potential hazards on the shoulder, have been drawn. These findings may help policy makers to integrate cycling with vehicular traffic on two-lane rural roads in a safe way.
... It is therefore the objective of this paper to discuss data and statistical issues related to traffic-conflicts analysis, to summarize existing traffic-conflict models (discussing their advantages and limitations), and to identify directions for future research. measurements by proximity (vehicles approaching each other in space and time) and/or evasive actions (movement changes to avoid a crash), as well as near-misses, near-crashes and safety critical events (Wu and Jovanis, 2013;Werneke et al., 2015;Puchades et al., 2018). The foregoing definition was modified slightly in NCHRP 219 with more stress on the evasive action (Glauz and Migletz, 1980), where ''a traffic conflict is a traffic event involving two or more road users, in which one user performs some atypical or unusual action, such as a change in direction or speed, that places another user in jeopardy of a collision unless an evasive maneuver is undertaken." ...
Article
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Limitations of crash data and crash-based methods have given rise to the study of alternate measures of safety that are not predicated on the occurrence of a crash such as traffic conflicts. The popularity of these alternative safety measures will likely play a prominent role in road safety analysis in the forthcoming era of connected and autonomous vehicles because of the vast amount of real-time vehicle data that are likely to be available. While traffic conflicts and crashes share the same failure mechanism in the driving process, which allows models of crash frequency and severity to be applied to model conflict frequency and severity, modeling traffic conflicts has new challenges because of their distinct characteristics. This paper provides a comprehensive review of research studies that have used traffic conflicts as a safety measure, and to present conceptual and methodological issues associated with these studies. It is found that although substantial progress has been made in the modeling methodologies of traffic conflicts over the years, more research efforts are needed. Some promising directions for future research are outlined and discussed.
... Twelve individuals favored using bike lanes when they are available, and seven individuals said that they tried to avoid streets with a lot of traffic. Similar bicyclist route preferences have been reported by other recent studies [29][30][31], and evidence suggests that crash risk may be reduced by using bike lanes [32] or avoiding challenging traffic situations [33][34][35]. ...
Preprint
The primary purpose of this investigation was to identify safety-oriented bicycling practices commonly used by adult riders in an urban setting (Brooklyn, New York), and to explore whether there are any differences between the safety-oriented practices of men and women riders. Methods: 24 adult riders (14 men, 10 women) in Brooklyn were interviewed concerning their perceptions of bicycling hazards and their safety-oriented practices. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed through thematic analysis. Fisher’s Exact Test was employed to test for gender differences. Results: Participants identified a variety of hazards, mainly due to motor vehicles but also pedestrians and roadway conditions. The analysis distilled twenty-one bicycling practices to summarize prevalent views of the participants about safe riding practices. Related items were grouped under broader categories, generating seven safety-oriented bicycling strategies. Few differences based on gender were found in the analysis; however, women in this study were more likely than men to say that they felt disrespected by other road users. Conclusion: Seven strategies may be important for safe urban bicycling: minimizing exposure to other road users (especially motor vehicles) while riding, being vigilant and anticipating what others might do, riding in a predictable fashion, making one’s presence known to other road users, making sure it is safe before proceeding, obeying traffic rules, and riding at a safe speed. Future studies could develop these concepts further and test whether they are associated with involvement in traffic crashes.
... Path analysis consists, then, in estimating the coefficients of these equations (representing the amount of linear association between variables) and in using these estimates to get information on an assumed underlying causal process [29]. Although path analysis has been applied in attitude research in various fields, there are only few attempts within traffic safety [30][31][32]. ...
Article
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Pedestrian injury is a major hazard to the health of children in most developed countries. Pedestrian accidents are one of the first causes of injury-related deaths and hospitalizations among children aged 5 to 14 in industrialized countries. This study has a dual objective: 1) to identify the factors affecting Italian parents' propensity to use private cars to accompany their children to school; 2) to analyze the availability of Italian parents to let their children walk to school alone. In order to develop this analysis, the data collected from a survey conducted in front of 9 schools (kindergartens and primary schools) in Catania were used. A path analysis was carried out to analyze these data. The results show that the habit of driving children to school is still very common in Italy. Main reasons why parents drive their children to school are the lack of safe home-school paths and the availability of regular or irregular parking spaces near the school. These results can be useful for those involved in transport planning and safety in order to implement effective actions aimed at encouraging the use of one or several human-powered modes of transportation such as walking or cycling. The results furthermore suggest that infrastructure-centered interventions, such as traffic calming measures and safer pedestrian crossings, can increase parents' safety perception of the home-school paths and thus raise the probability that children walk to school.
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Unintentional injury is a significant worldwide health concern. Researchers have called on several occasions for conceptual frameworks to guide work on unintentional injury. Using conceptual approaches to organize our inquiry is one way to advance our knowledge of injury etiology. To this end, we suggest a risk appraisal framework for examining enactment or avoidance of injury risk behaviors. Our framework comprises broad antecedents, focusing on the evaluative stage preceding behaviors. Four categories influencing efficacy related to injury risk behavior are included: environmental context, experience, social context, and strategy. In this article, we explain the categories and concepts in our framework, discuss each in terms of etiology, briefly discuss interrelations between the categories, and suggest future paths using the framework.
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The concept of motility, mobility capital, has been put forward to understand mobility from a more holistic perspective through incorporating subjective and objective as well as material and non-material aspects in the examination of individuals' mobility potentials. In this paper, building on a survey study in the two municipalities of Malmö and Gothenburg in Sweden, I developed a quantitative operationalization of motility in relation to cycling and employed GIS-based and statistical analyses to identify a set of appropriate indicators to measure the three dimensions of cycling motility namely access, competence, and appropriation. The analyses reveal three operational dimensions underlying the process of appropriating cycling to carry out daily trips. More specifically, individuals' perceptions of the functional and social suitability of cycling and its compatibility with their principles and values seem to be significant for the appropriation of a bike as a daily travel mode. Altogether, the findings support that the quantitative operationalization of cycling motility can deepen our understanding of the factors shaping individuals' cycling potentials and practices, hence offering valuable insights into the development of successful cycling interventions that create material and nonmaterial infrastructure, competences, and positive representations necessary for the appropriation of cycling.
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Cycling helps reduce traffic congestion, environmental pollution and promote a healthy lifestyle for the general public. However, it could also expose cyclists to dangerous environments, resulting in severe consequences and even death. Transport authorities are seeing growing accidents in city regions with increasing cycling population, requiring the development of new risk informed cycling safety policies. This paper aims to develop a new conceptual risk analysis approach based on a Bayesian network (BN) technique to enable the analysis and prediction of the severity of cycling accidents. To identify the risk factors influencing accident severity, 2,269 cycling accident reports from the UK city region were manually collected, where primary data was extracted and analysed. An advanced data training method (i.e. Tree Augmented Naïve Bayes (TAN)) for BN development was applied to investigate their correlation and their individual and combined contributions to cycling accident severity. As a result, the risk factors influencing accident severity are prioritised in terms of their risk contribution. The risk levels of accident severity can be predicted in dynamic situations based on the data from simulated and/or real cycling environments. The findings can provide useful insights for making rational cycling safety policies in proportion to different risk levels.
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Objective: This study aims to investigate the contributing factors to secondary collisions and the effects of secondary collisions on injury severity levels. Manhattan, which is the most densely populated urban area of New York City, is used as a case study. In Manhattan, about 7.5% of crash events become involved with secondary collisions and as high as 9.3% of those secondary collisions lead to incapacitating and fatal injuries. Methods: Structural equation models (SEMs) are proposed to jointly model the presence of secondary collisions and injury severity levels and adjust for the endogeneity effects. The structural relationship among secondary collisions, injury severity, and contributing factors such as speeding, alcohol, fatigue, brake defects, limited view, and rain are fully explored using SEMs. In addition, to assess the temporal effects, we use time as a moderator in the proposed SEM framework. Results: Due to its better performance compared with other models, the SEM with no constraint is used to investigate the contributing factors to secondary collisions. Thirteen explanatory variables are found to contribute to the presence of secondary collisions, including alcohol, drugs, inattention, inexperience, sleep, control disregarded, speeding, fatigue, defective brakes, pedestrian involved, defective pavement, limited view, and rain. Regarding the temporal effects, results indicate that it is more likely to sustain secondary collisions and severe injuries at night. Conclusions: This study fully investigates the contributing factors to secondary collisions and estimates the safety effects of secondary collisions after adjusting for the endogeneity effects and shows the advantage of using SEMs in exploring the structural relationship between risk factors and safety indicators. Understanding the causes and impacts of secondary collisions can help transportation agencies and automobile manufacturers develop effective injury prevention countermeasures.
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In the present study, we investigated gender-related effects on road safety attitudes in 2681 young drivers (1458 males, 54.4%; aged18–22) who filled out several scales assessing attitudes toward road safety issues, driving behavior in specific hypothetical situations, accident risk perception, and concerns about such a risk. We focused only on young drivers to better understand the role of gender in road safety attitudes in a period of life in which risky behaviors are wide spread for males and females. Indeed, there is still no agreement as to the nature of these gender differences. According to some authors, the effects of gender on being involved in a crash due to driving skills are either non-existent or largely explained by differences in alcohol consumption. In our study, we found gender differences in road safety attitudes (i.e., “negative attitude toward traffic rules and risky driving”; “negative attitude toward drugs and alcohol” and “tolerance toward speeding”) and in driver behavior (i.e. ,“errors in inattentive driving” and “driving violations”). This result is consistent in all drivers coming from nine different European countries. Our analyses yielded an important finding concerning risk perception. The results indicate that the level of risk perception during driving is the same for males and females. However, these two groups differ in the level of concern about this risk, with males being less concerned about the risk of a road accident. This suggests that the main difference between these two groups is not strictly related to judgment of the perceived risk probability but rather to the level of concern experienced about the consequences of the risk. This difference between risk perception and worry could explain differences in the frequency of car accidents in the two groups. The present findings may provide new insights for the development of gender-based prevention programs.
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In this paper we represent a systematic review of stated preference studies examining the extent to which cycle infrastructure preferences vary by gender and by age. A search of online, English-language academic and policy literature was followed by a three-stage screening process to identify relevant studies. We found fifty-four studies that investigated whether preferences for cycle infrastructure varied by gender and/or by age. Forty-four of these studies considered the extent of separation from motor traffic. The remainder of the studies covered diverse topics, including preferred winter maintenance methods and attitudes to cycle track lighting. We found that women reported stronger preferences than men for greater separation from motor traffic. There was weaker evidence of stronger preferences among older people. Differences in preferences were quantitative rather than qualitative; that is, preferences for separated infrastructure were stronger in some groups than in others, but no group preferred integration with motor traffic. Thus in low-cycling countries seeking to increase cycling, this evidence suggests focusing on the stronger preferences of under-represented groups as a necessary element of universal design for cycling.
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This paper explores cyclists’ experiences of non-injury incidents, arguing that these are important for cycling experience and uptake as well as for injury prevention. It discusses different types of non-injury incident collected in a recent survey of UK cyclists. These are everyday occurrences that in some cases have a substantially negative impact on cycling experiences. This article explores the impact of different incident types on people cycling both immediately and in the future. It analyses what near misses tell us about cyclists’ experience of problems related to road user behaviour and culture, and infrastructural conditions for cycling. The paper explores what cyclists experiencing near misses think might have prevented them. Based on this and on a comparison with common types of injury incidents, recommendations are made for policy and future research.
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Research linking bikeway infrastructure and cycling levels has increased significantly over the last 20 years — with the strongest growth since 2010. The research has evolved from the study of lanes and paths, to include analyses of the role of intersection treatments, and finally to studies that attempt to measure the whole bike network. Most studies suggest a positive relationship between bikeway networks or aspects of the network and cycling levels. Stated and revealed-preference studies suggest a hierarchy of cyclist and non-cyclist preferences may exist, favoring separate paths and/or lanes over cycling on roadways with traffic — particularly with high volumes of fast-moving motorized traffic. Revealed- and stated-route-choice studies indicate that intersections have negative effects on the cycling experience, but that certain features can offset this. The research correlating link and node characteristics to cycling implies that networks of such facilities would have positive effects, though very few empirical studies link complex measures of the network to cycling levels. In spite of an increase in studies and general agreement among findings, several important research gaps remain, including empirical studies using comprehensive network measures and studies of specific facility designs and new types of facilities (including intersection treatments). Improved research methods are necessary, including better sampling, longitudinal studies, greater geographic diversity, and incorporating more control variables, including policies.
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Safety in Numbers is the phenomenon by which the per-walker or per-bicyclist frequency of being struck by motorists declines as the amount of walking or bicycling on a street or in a region increases.1 That is, while the absolute number of walkers or bicyclists struck by motorists may increase with more people walking or bicycling, due to the increase in exposure, the number of such collisions is observed to increase more slowly than the increase in the number of walkers or bicyclists, or even decrease. The emergence of Safety in Numbers in the 1990s as a widely observed phenomenon reinforces the understanding that the number of injuries suffered by walkers or bicyclists is an imperfect indicator of the danger of walking or bicycling. Rather, the number of walking or bicycling injuries must be adjusted for the numbers of individuals walking or bicycling. An example from a different context may be helpful here. The fact that no one is attacked in shark-infested waters doesn’t demonstrate that the waters are safe for swimming. The low casualties could simply mean no one swims. Similarly, people tend to refrain from walking or bicycling where they believe they will place themselves in danger by doing so.2 Consequently, safety is best measured by the risk of injury, not by the number of injuries. Safety is indicated by the absence of danger, not by an absence of injuries. The Safety in Numbers effect for motorist collisions with pedestrians and bicyclists was first described in the context of intersections in Sweden in 1993.3 Thereafter, the effect was also found to apply to entire towns, cities and countries, and even across time periods.1 Numerous additional studies using a variety of data sources confirmed the existence of the Safety in Numbers effect.4 Mathematically, the most …
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The paper investigates the occurrence of non-injury incidents among cyclists in the UK, seeking to (i) generate a rate that can be compared with injury rates, (ii) analyse factors affecting incident rates, and (iii) analyse factors affecting the impact of incidents on cyclists.We collected data on non-injury cycling 'incidents' (near misses and other frightening and/or annoying incidents) from 1692 online diaries of cycle trip stages. 11A cycle trip stage being a part of a trip made by cycle for example, cycling to the train station. and incidents, participants having signed up in advance for a specific day. Following data cleaning and coding, a dataset was created covering 1532 diary days and 3994 records of incidents occurring within the UK. Incident rates were calculated and compared to injury risks for cyclists. Cross-tabulation and regression were used to identify factors affecting incident rates and the effect an incident has on the cyclist.Frightening or annoying non-injury incidents, unlike slight injuries, are an everyday experience for most people cycling in the UK. For regular cyclists 'very scary' incidents (rated as 3 on a 0-3 scale) are on average a weekly experience, with deliberate aggression experienced monthly. Per mile, non-injury incidents were more frequent for people making shorter and slower trips. People aged over 55 were at lower risk, as were those cycling at the weekend and outside the morning peak. Incidents that involved motor vehicles, especially those involving larger vehicles, were more frightening than those that did not.Near miss and other non-injury incidents are widespread in the UK and may have a substantial impact on cycling experience and uptake. Policy and research should initially target the most frightening types of incident, such as very close passes and incidents involving large vehicles. Further attention needs to be paid to the experiences of groups under-represented among cyclists, such as women making shorter trips.
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This paper introduces the Bayesian revolution that is sweeping across multiple disciplines but has yet to gain a foothold in organizational research. The foundations of Bayesian estimation and inference are first reviewed. Then, two empirical examples are provided to show how Bayesian methods can overcome limitations of frequentist methods: (a) a structural equation model of testosterone's effect on status in teams, where a Bayesian approach allows directly testing a traditional null hypothesis as a research hypothesis and allows estimating all possible residual covariances in a measurement model, neither of which are possible with frequentist methods; and (b) an ANOVA-style model from a true experiment of ego depletion's effects on performance, where Bayesian estimation with informative priors allows results from all previous research (via a meta-analysis and other previous studies) to be combined with estimates of study effects in a principled manner, yielding support for hypotheses that is not obtained with frequentist methods. Data are available from the first author, code for the program Mplus is provided, and tables illustrate how to present Bayesian results. In conclusion, the many benefits and few hindrances of Bayesian methods are discussed, where the major hindrance has been an easily solvable lack of familiarity by organizational researchers.
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Understanding the motivation behind unsafe driving practices is of paramount importance with a view to preventing road violations and crashes. Although the vast majority of previous studies have reported the predictive utility of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), these studies have been conducted within an additive framework. The present study aimed to better understand the role of the TPB constructs in predicting drivers’ road violation intentions and behaviours by investigating the interaction between differentiated Perceived Behavioural Control (PBC) components (i.e. perceived capacity and autonomy) and the other TPB factors on intention and road violations. We hypothesised that attitudes or subjective norms would affect intention, and that intention would affect behaviour, only to the degree that they are accompanied by high perceived capacity or high perceived autonomy. Participants (n = 280) completed two surveys 6 months apart: the first survey (Time 1) assessed the TPB components (i.e., attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control and intention); the second survey (Time 2) reported road violation behaviours. The moderator effect of differentiated PBC components was inconsistent across road violation behaviours. Drink-driving was the road violation that was best predicted by the interactive TPB components, such as both perceived capacity and autonomy moderate the contribution of subjective norms on intention formation and perceived capacity moderate the prediction of behaviour by intention. Globally, TPB was a predictor of road violation intentions and behaviours, with both additive and interactive effects. From a practical standpoint, contemporary theories of attitudes and beliefs should consider the possibility of the interactive framework for a more precise prediction of road safety behaviour.
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Communication campaigns are used as a rather efficient strategy to approach the wide audience in terms of promoting road safety and improving driving behavior. Incorporation of the evaluation in the campaign design is considered of high importance, since it provides information about the effectiveness of the campaign. Literature review on road safety campaigns, conducted in the last decade, highlights the importance, as well as the limited application of a well structured theoretical background when designing and implementing a road safety campaign, that could enable predicting possible behavioral changes of the road users owing to the campaign, and facilitate the assessment of its effectiveness.The scope of this study is to examine the predictability of alternative research designs as regards driving behavior, when evaluating the effectiveness of road safety campaigns; moreover, to assess the impact of the various parameters and predict behavioral changes. The conclusions drawn rely on the results of the assessment of the impacts of two local campaigns, one on drink and drive and the other on seat belt usage, both implemented on a university campus, with its 1587 students (drivers and passengers) forming the target group. Both campaigns were designed taking as a premise for design and assessment the Theory of Planned Behavior, and an attempt was made of developing alternative models for correlating behavior and intentions with behavioral beliefs, control beliefs, normative beliefs, and descriptive norms.Increase of the predictability of the models was noticed as more constructs were being added; especially, when past behavior was added in the models predicting intention, and intention in the models predicting behavior. This demonstrates the high correlation between these two constructs. The theoretical and applied implications of the models are discussed.
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Though the percentage of people bicycling for transportation rose during the last decade, with an average increase in bicycle commuting of 47% (Flusche, 2012), still only 1% of all U.S. trips are made by bike (Flusche, 2010). Research suggests that people’s concern regarding the risk of bicycling near traffic—namely the risk of being hit by a car—remain a significant barrier to widespread cycling. However, research has not disaggregated traffic risk to expose its many aspects and how they may affect bicyclists with differing skill levels, experiences, and behaviors. This study begins to address this gap in our understanding. Elaborating on results from an internet survey, this study examined various aspects of traffic risk among 406 potential and current bicyclists in the San Francisco Bay Area. The data indicate that perceived traffic risk negatively influences the decision to bicycle for potential and occasional bicyclists, although the influence decreases with cycling frequency. Additionally, cycling frequency seems to heighten awareness of traffic risk, particularly for cyclists who have experienced “near misses” or collisions. In particular, near misses were found to be (a) much more common than collisions and (b) more strongly associated than collisions with perceived traffic risk. The findings suggest that efforts targeting road user behaviors and roadway designs associated with these near misses could mitigate perceived and actual traffic risk for bicyclists, and thereby eventually help achieve higher cycling ridership.
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The neglect of pedestrian and bicycling safety in the United States has made these modes dangerous ways of getting around. Pedestrian fatalities are 36 times higher than car occupant fatalities per kilometer (km) traveled, and bicycling fatalities are 11 times higher than car occupant fatalities per km. Walking and bicycling can be made quite safe, however, as clearly shown by the much lower fatality rates in The Netherlands and Germany. Pedestrian fatalities per billion km walked are less than a tenth as high as in the United States, and bicyclist fatalities per billion km cycled are only a fourth as high. The Netherlands and Germany have long recognized the importance of pedestrian and bicyclist safety. Over the past two decades, these countries have undertaken a wide range of measures to improve safety: better facilities for walking and bicycling; urban design sensitive to the needs of nonmotorists; traffic calming of residential neighborhoods; restrictions on motor vehicle use in cities; rigorous traffic education of both motorists and nonmotorists; and strict enforcement of traffic regulations protecting pedestrians and bicyclists. The United States could adopt many of the same measures to improve pedestrian and bicycling safety here. The necessary technology and methods are already available, with decades of successful experience in Europe.
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This before-and-after study covers the construction of one-way cycle tracks and lanes, blue cycle crossings and raised exits. It is the biggest study of its kind so far carried out in Denmark. The effects on road safety of all types of traffic both at junctions and on road sections for both accidents and injuries are examined. The effects on the volumes of motor vehicles as well as on bicycle and moped traffic are examined with regard to the construction of one way cycle tracks and lanes. Lastly, cycle facilities impact on cyclists? perceived risk and satisfaction on road sections and at junctions is also examined.
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Naturalistic cycling studies can be performed by making instrumented bicycles available to participants, or by having mobile equipment added by the participants themselves to their own bicycles. This paper describes how participants' bicycles can be equipped with a commercially available, small and unobtrusive action camera to gather naturalistic cycling data. Lateral position, swerving and speed were analysed using video and GPS to assess cycling behaviour of older cyclists, and to assess the influence of different types of cycling infrastructure. The applied method gathered insights in possible interventions in a cost efficient way, inconspicuously, and quickly, compared with instrumented bicycles. Also, several bicycles can be instrumented at the same time with as only limitation the number of cameras available.
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Objective: Although intersections correspond to a small proportion of the entire roadway system, they account for a disproportionally high number of fatal pedestrian crashes, especially in rural roads situated in low- and middle-income countries. This paper examines pedestrian safety at rural intersections and suggests applicable accident prevention treatments by providing an in-depth analysis of 28 fatal pedestrian crashes from eight low volume roads in Southwest China. Methods: The Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM) is a method to support a systematic classification of accident causation information and to facilitate aggregation of that information into patterns of contributing factors. This is the first time DREAM was used to analyze pedestrian-vehicle crashes and provide suggestions for road improvements in China. Results: The key issues adversely affecting pedestrian safety can be organized in four distinctive thematic categories, namely deficient intersection safety infrastructure, lack of pedestrian safety education, inadequate driver training and insufficient traffic law enforcement. Given that resources for traffic safety investments in rural areas are limited, it is determined that the potential countermeasures should focus on low-cost, easily implementable and long-lasting measures increasing the visibility and predictability of pedestrian movement and reducing speeding and irresponsible driving for drivers and risk-taking behaviors for pedestrians. Conclusions: Accident prevention treatments are suggested based on their suitability for rural areas in Southwest China. These countermeasures include introducing better access management and traffic calming treatments, providing more opportunities for pedestrian education and enhancing the quality of driver training and traffic law enforcement.
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In the social sciences, several definitions of minority group can be found. The definitions include different aspects such as power/status, number, distinctiveness, social category, group context, dispositions, and discrimination. Compared to motorized road users, cyclists are considered vulnerable road users because they lack physical protection. We argue that such definition does not capture the social and cultural aspects that characterize the membership within the group of cyclists. We offer arguments and reflections based on recent literature advocating that cyclists may share some features of the experience of minority groups. Although cyclists differ from other minorities in important respects, they manifest many of the characteristics by which minority groups are defined.
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Bicycle–motorised vehicle (BMV) collisions account for the majority of the recorded bicyclists’ fatalities and serious injuries. This systematic review intends to examine the main factors contributing to BMV collisions. We performed a comprehensive literature review on Scopus, TRID, ProQuest, and Web of Science databases. Fifty-nine English-language peer-reviewed articles met the eligibility criteria and were included in the final analysis. The main factors contributing to BMV collisions identified were classified in accordance with a recently published conceptual framework for road safety. The majority of studies have identified factors related to road users’ behaviour (59.3%) and infrastructure characteristics (57.6%). A minority of studies identified variables related to exposure (40.7%) and vehicles (15.3%) as contributor factors to BMV collisions. A small but significant proportion of studies (20.3%) provided evidence that environmental factors may also play a role, although to a lesser extent, in determining BMV collisions. In addition to the three factors comprised in the applied conceptual framework for road safety, we identified environmental conditions as a category of factors contributing to BMV collisions.
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Among roadway users, bicyclists are considered vulnerable due to their high risk for injury when involved in a crash. Little is known about the circumstances leading to near crashes, crashes, and related injuries or how these vary by age and gender. The purpose of this study was to examine the rates and characteristics of safety-relevant events (crashes, near crashes, errors, and traffic violations) among adult and child bicyclists. Bicyclist trips were captured using Pedal Portal, a data acquisition and coding system which includes a GPS-enabled video camera and graphical user interface. A total of 179 safety-relevant events were manually coded from trip videos. Overall, child errors and traffic violations occurred at a rate of 1.9 per 100 min of riding, compared to 6.3 for adults. However, children rode on the sidewalk 56.4% of the time, compared with 12.7% for adults. For both adults and children, the highest safety-relevant event rates occurred on paved roadways with no bicycle facilities present (Adults = 8.6 and Children = 7.2, per 100 min of riding). Our study, the first naturalistic study to compare safety-relevant events among adults and children, indicates large variation in riding behavior and exposure between child and adult bicyclists. The majority of identified events were traffic violations and we were not able to code all risk-relevant data (e.g., subtle avoidance behaviors, failure to check for traffic, probability of collision). Future naturalistic cycling studies would benefit from enhanced instrumentation (e.g., additional camera views) and coding protocols able to fill these gaps.
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Several recent transportation safety studies have indicated the importance of accounting for correlated outcomes, for example, among different crash types, including differing injury-severity levels. In this paper, we discuss inference for such data by introducing a flexible Bayesian multivariate model. In particular, we use a Dirichlet process mixture to keep the dependence structure unconstrained, relaxing the usual homogeneity assumptions. The resulting model collapses into a latent class multivariate model that is in the form of a flexible mixture of multivariate normal densities for which the number of mixtures (latent components) not only can be large but also can be inferred from the data as part of the analysis. Therefore, besides accounting for correlation among crash types through a heterogeneous correlation structure, the proposed model helps address unobserved heterogeneity through its latent class component. To our knowledge, this is the first study to propose and apply such a model in the transportation literature. We use the model to investigate the effects of various factors such as built environment characteristics on pedestrian and cyclist injury counts at signalized intersections in Montreal, modeling both outcomes simultaneously. We demonstrate that the homogeneity assumption of the standard multivariate model does not hold for the dataset used in this study. Consequently, we show how such a spurious assumption affects predictive performance of the model and the interpretation of the variables based on marginal effects. Our flexible model better captures the underlying complex structure of the correlated data, resulting in a more accurate model that contributes to a better understanding of safety correlates of non-motorist road users. This in turn helps decision-makers in selecting more appropriate countermeasures targeting vulnerable road users, promoting the mobility and safety of active modes of transportation.
Article
The theory of planned behavior (TPB, Ajzen, 1985) has proved its efficiency in predicting different behaviors among road users (Sheeran & Orbell, 2000). The present study examined the TPB factors explaining risk taking among vulnerable road users (e.g., cyclists). We presumed that attitude, social norms, and perceived behavioral control (PBC) would predict cyclists’ intention to adopt a risky behavior in two traffic contexts considered as risk-conducive (i.e., run the red-light, turn left). Participants (N = 224, Mage = 23.34) filled in an online scenario-based questionnaire describing two traffic situations conducive to risk taking and including measures for cyclists’ intentions to adopt risky behaviors in these specific contexts, TPB factors, and self-perceived efficacy. TPB factors explained 49% and 65% of the variance in the intention to cross the red light, respectively the intention to turn left, with positive attitude and high PBC as the best predictors. Implications of the results were discussed.
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Many cities worldwide are recognizing the important role that cycling plays in creating green and livable communities. However, vulnerable road users such as cyclists are usually subjected to an elevated level of injury risk which discourages many road users to cycle. This paper studies cyclist-vehicle collisions at 134 traffic analysis zones in the city of Vancouver to assess the impact of bike network structure on cyclist safety. Several network indicators were developed using Graph theory and their effect on cyclist safety was investigated. The indicators included measures of connectivity, directness, and topography of the bike network. The study developed several macro-level (zonal) collision prediction models that explicitly incorporated bike network indicators as explanatory variables. As well, the models incorporated the actual cyclist exposure (bike kilometers travelled) as opposed to relying on proxies such as population or bike network length. The macro-level collision prediction models were developed using generalized linear regression and full Bayesian techniques, with and without spatial effects. The models showed that cyclist collisions were positively associated with bike and vehicle exposure. The exponents of the exposure variables were less than one which supports the "safety in numbers" hypothesis. Moreover, the models showed positive associations between cyclist collisions and the bike network connectivity and linearity indicators. In contrast, negative associations were found between cyclist collisions and the bike network continuity and topography indicators. The spatial effects were statistically significant in all of the developed models.
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Relying on accident records as the main data source for studying cyclists’ safety has many drawbacks, such as high degree of under-reporting, the lack of accident details and particularly of information about the interaction processes that led to the accident. It is also an ethical problem as one has to wait for accidents to happen in order to make a statement about cyclists’ (un-)safety. In this perspective, the use of surrogate safety measures based on actual observations in traffic is very promising. In this study we used video data from three intersections in Norway that were all independently analysed using three methods: the Swedish traffic conflict technique (Swedish TCT), the Dutch conflict technique (DOCTOR) and the probabilistic surrogate measures of safety (PSMS) technique developed in Canada. The first two methods are based on manual detection and counting of critical events in traffic (traffic conflicts), while the third considers probabilities of multiple trajectories for each interaction and delivers a density map of potential collision points per site. Due to extensive use of microscopic data, PSMS technique relies heavily on automated tracking of the road users in video. Across the three sites, the methods show similarities or are at least “compatible” with the accident records. The two conflict techniques agree quite well for the number, type and location of conflicts, but some differences with no obvious explanation are also found. PSMS reports many more safety-relevant interactions including less severe events. The location of the potential collision points is compatible with what the conflict techniques suggest, but the possibly significant share of false alarms due to inaccurate trajectories extracted from video complicates the comparison. The tested techniques still require enhancement, with respect to better adjustment to analysis of the situations involving cyclists (and vulnerable road users in general) and further validation. However, we believe this to be a future direction for the road safety analysis as the number of accidents is constantly decreasing and the quality of accident data does not seem to improve.
Book
Despite being an accepted construct in traffic and transport psychology, the precise nature of behavioural adaptation, including its causes and consequences, has not yet been established within the road safety community. A comprehensive collection of recent literature, Behavioural Adaptation and Road Safety: Theory, Evidence, and Action explores behavioural adaptation in road users. It examines behavioural adaptation within the context of historical and theoretical perspectives, and puts forth tangible—and practical—solutions that can effectively address adverse behavioural adaptation to road safety interventions before it occurs. Edited by Christina Rudin-Brown and Samantha Jamson, with chapters authored by leading road safety experts in driver psychology and behaviour, the book introduces the concept of behavioural adaptation and details its more relevant issues. It reviews the definition of behavioural adaptation that was put forward by the OECD in 1990 and then puts this definition through its paces, identifying where it may be lacking and how it might be improved. This sets the context for the remaining chapters which take the OECD definition as their starting points. The book discusses the various theories and models of behavioural adaptation and more general theories of driver behaviour developed during the last half century. It provides examples of the "evidence" for behavioural adaptation—instances in which behavioural adaptation arose as a consequence of the introduction of safety countermeasures. The book then focuses on the internal, "human" element and considers countermeasures that might be used to limit the development of behavioural adaptation in various road user groups. The book concludes with practical tools and methodologies to address behavioural adaptation in research and design, and to limit the potential negative effects before they happen. Supplying easy-to-understand, accessible solutions that can be implemented early on in a road safety intervention’s design or conception phase, the chapters represent the most extensive compilation of literature relating to behavioural adaptation and its consequences since the 1990 OECD report. The book brings together earlier theories of behavioural adaptation with more recent theories in the area and combines them with practical advice, methods, and tangible solutions that can minimise the potential negative impact of behavioural adaptation on road user safety and address it before it occurs. It is an essential component of any road safety library, and should be of particular relevance to researchers, practitioners, designers, and policymakers who are interested in maximizing safety while at the same time encouraging innovation and excellence in road transport-related design.
Article
In emerging cycling regions, cyclists and motorists share the road due to cycling infrastructure scarcity. This study investigates the chain of stimuli, cognition, emotion and behavior associated with the road sharing experience through the thematic-analysis of talk-backs posted in response to news items related to cyclist-motorist crashes. Results show: (i) cycling infrastructure scarcity and perceived road use rights trigger emotional stress; (ii) motorists and cyclists perceive the road sharing experience as life-threatening and experience anxiety, anger and fear; (iii) drivers' coping strategies are confrontive, problem-solving and seeking social-support, while cyclists' coping strategies are avoidance, confrontive and problem-solving.
Article
This paper presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have estimated the relationship between the number of accidents involving motor vehicles and cyclists or pedestrians and the volume of motor vehicles, cyclists and pedestrians. A key objective of most of these studies has been to determine if there is a safety-in-numbers effect. There is safety-in-numbers if the number of accidents increases less than proportionally to traffic volume (for motor vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists). All studies reviewed in the paper are multivariate accident prediction models, estimating regression coefficients that show how the number of accidents depends on the conflicting flows (pedestrians, cyclists, motor vehicles), as well as (in some of the models) other factors that influence the number of accidents. Meta-analysis of regression coefficients involves methodological problems, which require careful consideration of whether the coefficients are sufficiently comparable to be formally synthesised by means of standard techniques of meta-analysis. The comparability of regression coefficients was assessed. It was concluded that a formal synthesis of regression coefficients in studies of the safety-in-numbers effect is defensible. According to a random-effects inverse-variance meta-analysis, the summary estimates of the regression coefficients for traffic volume are 0.50 for motor vehicle volume, 0.43 for cycle volume and 0.51 for pedestrian volume. Estimates are highly consistent between studies. It is concluded that a safety-in-numbers effect exists. It is still not clear whether this effect is causal, nor, if causal, which mechanisms generate the effect.
Article
Communication campaigns are employed as an important tool to promote road safety practices. Researchers maintain road safety communication campaigns are more effective when their persuasive appeals, which are central to their communicative strategy, are based on explicit theoretical frameworks. This study's main objectives were to develop a detailed categorization of persuasive appeals used in road safety communication campaigns that differentiate between appeals that appear to be similar but differ conceptually, and to indicate the advantages, limitations and ethical issues associated with each type, drawing on behavior change theories. Materials from over 300 campaigns were obtained from 41 countries, mainly using road safety organizations' websites. Drawing on the literature, five types of main approaches were identified, and the analysis yielded a more detailed categorizations of appeals within these general categories. The analysis points to advantages, limitations, ethical issues and challenges in using different types of appeals. The discussion summarizes challenges in designing persuasive-appeals for road safety communication campaigns.
Article
Background: Cycling, as an active mode of transportation, has well-established health benefits. However, the safety of cyclists in traffic remains a major concern. In-depth studies of potential risk factors and safety outcomes are needed to ensure the most appropriate actions are taken to improve safety. However, the lack of reliable exposure data hinders meaningful analysis and interpretation. In this paper, we review the bicycle safety literature reporting different methods for measuring cycling exposure and discuss their findings. Methods: A literature search identified studies on bicycle safety that included a description of how cycling exposure was measured, and what exposure units were used (e.g. distance, time, trips). Results were analyzed based on whether retrospective or prospective measurement of exposure was used, and whether safety outcomes controlled for exposure. Results: We analyzed 20 papers. Retrospective studies were dominated by major bicycle accidents, whereas the prospective studies included minor and major bicycle accidents. Retrospective studies indicated higher incidence rates (IR) of accidents for men compared to women, and an increased risk of injury for cyclists aged 50 years or older. There was a lack of data for cyclists younger than 18 years. The risk of cycling accidents increased when riding in the dark. Wearing visible clothing or a helmet, or having more cycling experience did not reduce the risk of being involved in an accident. Better cyclist-driver awareness and more interaction between car driver and cyclists, and well maintained bicycle-specific infrastructure should improve bicycle safety. Conclusion: The need to include exposure in bicycle safety research is increasingly recognized, but good exposure data are often lacking, which makes results hard to interpret and compare. Studies including exposure often use a retrospective research design, without including data on minor bicycle accidents, making it difficult to compare safety levels between age categories or against different types of infrastructure. Future research should focus more on children and adolescents, as this age group is a vulnerable population and is underrepresented in the existing literature.
Article
The experiment investigates the effect of perceived control on risk taking in a dynamic, everyday task. Using established and validated video simulation techniques, the risk-taking preferences for 96 drivers were measured for a range of driving activities (speed choice, following distance, gap acceptance, and overtaking). The perceived control manipulation was as follows: Half of the participants were told to imagine they were driving the vehicle, and the other half were told to imagine they were passengers. Those who were told to imagine they were driving chose significantly faster speeds than did those who were told to imagine they were passengers. Differences for the other risk-taking measures were not significant. For speed choice, it could be argued that an illusion of control was in operation, such that those who were in control (i.e., drivers) were comfortable with a higher level of risk than those who were not in control (i.e., passengers).
Article
Interest in the problem of method biases has a long history in the behavioral sciences. Despite this, a comprehensive summary of the potential sources of method biases and how to control for them does not exist. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to examine the extent to which method biases influence behavioral research results, identify potential sources of method biases, discuss the cognitive processes through which method biases influence responses to measures, evaluate the many different procedural and statistical techniques that can be used to control method biases, and provide recommendations for how to select appropriate procedural and statistical remedies for different types of research settings.
Article
I describe a test of linear moderated mediation in path analysis based on an interval estimate of the parameter of a function linking the indirect effect to values of a moderator—a parameter that I call the index of moderated mediation. This test can be used for models that integrate moderation and mediation in which the relationship between the indirect effect and the moderator is estimated as linear, including many of the models described by Edwards and Lambert (200710. Edwards, J.R., & Lambert, L.S. (2007). Methods for integrating moderation and mediation: A general analytical framework using moderated path analysis. Psychological Methods, 12, 1–22.[CrossRef], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®]View all references) and Preacher, Rucker, and Hayes (200743. Preacher, K.J., Rucker, D.D., & Hayes, A.F. (2007). Assessing moderated mediation hypotheses: Theory, methods, and prescriptions. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 42, 185–227.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®]View all references) as well as extensions of these models to processes involving multiple mediators operating in parallel or in serial. Generalization of the method to latent variable models is straightforward. Three empirical examples describe the computation of the index and the test, and its implementation is illustrated using Mplus and the PROCESS macro for SPSS and SAS.
Article
This study explores the differences in safety perceptions and reported behavior of cyclists in mixed traffic between an emerging cycling city (Brisbane, Australia) and an established cycling city (Copenhagen, Denmark). Perceptions and reported behavior were retrieved from a custom-designed web-based survey administered among cyclists in the two cities. Elicited items concerned perceived risk of infrastructure layouts, fear of traffic, cycling while distracted, use of safety gear, cycling avoidance due to feeling unsafe, and avoidance to cycle in mixed traffic conditions. The data were analyzed with structural equation models. Results show that, in comparison with cyclists in Copenhagen, cyclists in Brisbane perceive mixed traffic infrastructure layouts as less safe, feel more fear of traffic, and are more likely to adopt cycling avoidance as a coping strategy. Results also show that cyclists in Copenhagen tend to use less helmets and to cycle more while being distracted.
Article
Abstract Employing an in situ diary, 291 road users in Oxford (pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, car drivers and bus drivers) recorded details of all journeys made during 1 week and noted any incidents and near-misses which occurred on these journeys. On average, pedestrians and cyclists reported 0.18 incidents per mile travelled (one incident every 5.59 miles) and motorcyclists, car drivers and bus drivers reported 0.02 incidents per mile travelled (one incident every 41.67 miles). Analysis revealed mutual conflict between cyclists and buses, and irritation on behalf of pedestrians towards cyclists on pavements. Only 35% of incidents involving cyclists occurred at junctions and the paper discusses likely reasons for the discrepancy between this and the usual two-thirds figure quoted in official accident records. While the rate of incident perception reflected the vulnerability of pedestrians and cyclists, the amount of distress experienced did not, as bus drivers rated more of their incidents as distressing than did any other group. When incident reporting was compared to accident figures, the data suggest that car drivers were paying more attention to near-misses with the less vulnerable road users (i.e. those who could harm them) than they were to near-misses with more vulnerable road users (i.e. those whom they could harm).
Article
An introduction is given to our psychophysical response and valence theory of choice behaviour, since the risk-adaptation theory derives from that theory as an application. Risk-adaptation theory assumes that road users implicitly evaluate their risks by oppositely oriented, single-peaked valence functions of arousal and fear sensations as dependent aspects of risks in road traffic. Due to this dependence and the adaptation to changing risk levels, these single-peaked valence functions combine additively to a dynamic shifting interval of ambivalent risk indifference, where above and below the risk evaluation is increasingly negative. Risk-adaptation theory contains the zero-risk, threat-avoidance, and risk-homeostasis theories as special cases and predicts that: (1) fatality risks decay exponentially, (2) the slope parameter for the exponential fatality risk decay is 1½ larger than for the traffic growth function, (3) a safety measure with a very large effect will be initially compensated to a lesser low risk level than otherwise expected, and (4) the contributions of a road safety measure to danger perception and arousal level determines whether its expected safety effect will be reinforced or adversely compensated. Each prediction is tentatively verified by some research.
Article
Simple slopes, regions of significance, and confidence bands are commonly used to evaluate interactions in multiple linear regression (MLR) models, and the use of these techniques has recently been extended to multilevel or hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) and latent curve analysis (LCA). However, conducting these tests and plotting the conditional relations is often a tedious and error-prone task. This article provides an overview of methods used to probe interaction effects and describes a unified collection of freely available online resources that researchers can use to obtain significance tests for simple slopes, compute regions of significance, and obtain confidence bands for simple slopes across the range of the moderator in the MLR, HLM, and LCA contexts. Plotting capabilities are also provided.
Article
Understanding communication processes is the goal of most communication researchers. Rarely are we satisfied merely ascertaining whether messages have an effect on some outcome of focus in a specific context. Instead, we seek to understand how such effects come to be. What kinds of causal sequences does exposure to a message initiate? What are the causal pathways through which a message exerts its effect? And what role does communication play in the transmission of the effects of other variables over time and space? Numerous communication models attempt to describe the mechanism through which messages or other communication-related variables transmit their effects or intervene between two other variables in a causal model. The communication literature is replete with tests of such models. Over the years, methods used to test such process models have grown in sophistication. An example includes the rise of structural equation modeling (SEM), which allows investigators to examine how well a process model that links some focal variable X to some outcome Y through one or more intervening pathways fits the observed data. Yet frequently, the analytical choices communication researchers make when testing intervening variables models are out of step with advances made in the statistical methods literature. My goal here is to update the field on some of these new advances. While at it, I challenge some conventional wisdom and nudge the field toward a more modern way of thinking about the analysis of intervening variable effects.
Article
Commuting by bicycle has advantages over other modes of transport, both for the commuter and for society. Although cycling is an option for many commuters, a considerable number of them choose to use other forms of transport. In order to underpin policies that promote commuting by bicycle, this paper investigates the determinants for commuting to work. As many bicycle commuters do not cycle every day, we also examine people’s daily choices, in terms of frequency. We conducted a survey of the current literature in order to identify the determinants for commuting by bicycle. We found many determinants, not all of which are addressed by conventional mode choice studies and models. This suggests that predicting and influencing bicycle use needs to be grounded in other kinds of knowledge than those currently available for motorized forms of transport.
Article
In Study 1, over 200 college students estimated how much their own chance of experiencing 42 events differed from the chances of their classmates. Overall, Ss rated their own chances to be significantly above average for positive events and below average for negative events. Cognitive and motivational considerations led to predictions that degree of desirability, perceived probability, personal experience, perceived controllability, and stereotype salience would influence the amount of optimistic bias evoked by different events. All predictions were supported, although the pattern of effects differed for positive and negative events. Study 2 with 120 female undergraduates from Study 1 tested the idea that people are unrealistically optimistic because they focus on factors that improve their own chances of achieving desirable outcomes and fail to realize that others may have just as many factors in their favor. Ss listed the factors that they thought influenced their own chances of experiencing 8 future events. When such lists were read by a 2nd group of Ss, the amount of unrealistic optimism shown by this 2nd group for the same 8 events decreased significantly, although it was not eliminated. (22 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
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Investigated unrealistic optimism and illusion of control as they relate to the personal probability of encountering negative events in the area of perceived accident involvement. Whereas optimism refers to a generalized expectancy for positive outcomes independent of the source of the outcomes, the illusion of control locates the source of the expected outcome in terms of personal control. By examining conditions in which personal control was either present or absent in 2 studies with 33 university students and 127 staff, it was possible to distinguish between the 2 positions. Clear evidence was found in favor of the illusion of control with little evidence in favor of unrealistic optimism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)