Photovoltaic Deployment Experience and Technical Potential in Indonesia's Java-Madura-Bali Electricity Grid
Abstract and Figures
The largest and most established electricity grid in Indonesia, the Java-Madura-Bali (JAMALI) interconnected system, accounts for around 60% of the country's total electricity demand. Given continuing high demand growth and the slow addition of major generators in recent years, energy users served by the JAMALI grid are experiencing inadequate and unreliable electricity supply. There is growing interest in the potential of renewable energy to help mitigate the risks of continued fossil fuel dependence, improve system reserve margins, and diversify energy sources to enhance supply security, as well as improve environmental outcomes. The Indonesian government's vision to increase the renewable energy contribution to Indonesia's energy mix to 23% by 2025, raises the question of what role utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation might play in meeting these challenges and opportunities. Indonesia has an excellent solar resource, while PV costs have fallen markedly over recent years. Still, the JAMALI's present generation mix is dominated by low cost and relatively abundant coal and gas. This paper reviews the current status and future potential of utility PV in the JAMALI area. Given limited existing studies on solar irradiation and PV mapping for the Indonesian context, we first present a detailed spatial mapping of PV output potential for the JAMALI region including hourly temporal behavior-a key factor for assessing PV integration challenges and opportunities. This proposed spatial PV output mapping is provided at a 5 km 2 resolution, using weather data derived from the NASA MERRA-2 satellite database and the Global Solar Energy Estimator model. The mapping provides a preliminary indication of appropriate utility-scale PV locations in the JAMALI context. An open-source generation mix model, NEMO, is then used to assess the potential role of utility PV in least cost future generation portfolios for JAMALI. Results suggest that PV could play a useful role, depending on future technology, fuel and carbon prices, and demand growth. On this basis, current policies and regulations relevant to deployment of large scale PV are described and a number of key challenges for PV deployment and possible opportunities for reform are identified.
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