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Analyzing material flow and value added
associated with non‑metallic mineral wastes
in Japan
Hasegawa Ryoji1*, Hirofumi Nakayama2 and Takayuki Shimoaka2
1 Background
Rubble, slag, and sludge, referred to as non-metallic mineral wastes, are frequently
recycled as alternate materials for natural non-metallic mineral resources such as dirt,
crushed stone, sand, and clay. Concrete waste and asphalt concrete waste, which are
non-metallic mineral wastes, are categorized as industrial wastes in Japan. Accord-
ing to the annual report of Japan’s Ministry of the Environment (2015), the emission of
these non-metallic mineral wastes in 2012 was 56.7 million tons in the country, which
accounted for 15% of the 379.1 million tons of total industrial waste.
ere are two emission sources of non-metallic mineral wastes: waste derived from
demolishing existing stock, such as structures, and that generated as byproducts of
industrial production. Specifically, concrete waste and asphalt generated from demolish-
ing structures and repairing roads, respectively, are non-metallic mineral wastes derived
from the demolition of existing stock. On the other hand, iron and steel slag and coal
ash, derived from the steel industry and coal-fired power generation, respectively, are
non-metallic mineral wastes generated as byproducts of production.
Abstract
This paper sheds light on the increase in generation of non-metallic mineral wastes
and the decrease in demand for construction by investigating the material flow result-
ing from and the economic influence of changes in the supply and demand for wastes,
focusing on the period from the near future to 2030. We predict the amount of final
disposal of non-metallic mineral wastes and its influence on industries in the future
under the assumption of two scenarios—zero emission and business-as-usual—using
linear programming and input–output techniques developed for non-metallic mineral
materials. We conclude that zero emission can be achieved at the cost of a 3.76%
decrease in the value added of industries related to non-metallic mineral wastes. Oth-
erwise, the final disposal might increase 13 times the size of 2005’s disposal. Consider-
ing the empirical results, we discuss an effective policy for non-metallic mineral waste
management from the viewpoints of material flow and economic influence.
Keywords: Non-metallic mineral waste, Material flow, Balance of supply and demand,
Linear programming, Input–output table
JEL Classification: Q50, Q53, C61, C67
Open Access
© The Author(s) 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and
indicate if changes were made.
RESEARCH
Ryoji et al. Economic Structures (2017) 6:37
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008‑017‑0098‑3
*Correspondence:
r-hasegawa@fcu.ac.jp
1 Faculty of Urban
Management, Fukuyama
City University, 2-19-1,
Minatomachi, Fukuyama,
Hiroshima 721-0964, Japan
Full list of author information
is available at the end of the
article
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Page 2 of 15
Ryoji et al. Economic Structures (2017) 6:37
On the supply side, considering the generation of non-metallic mineral wastes in
the future in Japan, it is expected that concrete waste will continuously and drastically
increase. In Japan, the stock of structures had been rapidly accumulated since the 1950s
in accordance with high economic growth. Especially, the stock of non-timber struc-
tures, which is the main generation source of concrete waste, continued to increase at a
higher ratio than that of timber structures every year, and the increasing trend was sus-
tained until the 1990s (see e.g. Ministry of the Environment 2002).
e demolition of structures that have reached the end of their life has already begun
to increase and is expected to accelerate in the future. Furthermore, because it is hard to
imagine that steel production and coal-fired power generation will suddenly decrease, it
is expected that the emission of non-metallic mineral wastes will continue to increase.
Hashimoto etal. (2009), for example, estimated the stock of materials accumulated as
structures in Japan and noted that 32 billion tons of materials were accumulated as con-
struction commodities in 2000, of which 9 billion tons are likely to be generated as waste
in the future.
On the other hand, on the demand side, recycled non-metallic mineral wastes are
primarily used in civil engineering and construction, such as base course and raw
cement materials. e demand has begun to decrease due to the saturation of social
infrastructures.
is phenomenon leads to the collapse of the balance of supply and demand in non-
metallic mineral wastes, which increases the amount of final disposal. While this phe-
nomenon has already been detected in Japan, there is a high possibility that other Asian
countries, which have achieved high economic growth, will also face a similar one in
the future. It is crucial to establish appropriate waste management policies, particularly
focusing on non-metallic mineral wastes, for sustainable development in the Asia–
Pacific region.
erefore, it is significant to select Japan as the case study of non-metallic mineral
wastes, because it provides useful implications for future waste policies in Asian coun-
tries. Furthermore, it is also significant that this paper, which targets the case study of
Japan, is published as the Special Issue on “On the Nexus of Economy and Environment
in the Asia–Pacific Region.”
Based on the circumstances described above, this paper, considering the case of Japan,
investigates the material flow resulting from and the economic influence of the changes
in supply and demand for non-metallic mineral wastes, focusing on the period from
the near future to 2030. Specifically, we construct an input–output (IO) table to analyze
non-metallic mineral wastes to identify monetary and material flows between industries
related to supply and demand in non-metallic mineral wastes. Based on the constructed
IO table, we predict the material flow and value added brought about by non-metallic
mineral wastes in the future by applying a linear programming technique.
e reminder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 explains supply and
demand for non-metallic mineral wastes and the related industries covered in this paper.
We also compile an IO table for the analysis of non-metallic mineral wastes. Section3
develops a linear programming model to predict material flows and value added in 2030.
Section4 investigates the empirical results. Finally, Sect.5 summarizes the discussion
and conclusion.
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Ryoji et al. Economic Structures (2017) 6:37
2 Material flow and industries related to non‑metallic mineral wastes
2.1 Target materials and related industries
Figure 1 shows the material flow covered in our analysis. As non-metallic mineral
wastes, this paper targets (1) concrete waste, (2) asphalt concrete waste generated
from both demolishing structures and repairing roads, (3) iron and steel slag generated
as by-products in manufacturing steel, and (4) coal ash generated primarily from the
coal power industry. We regard the generation of these four materials as supply and the
use of these materials as demand. Application usages are defined as crushed stones for
roads, aggregate for concrete, other crushed stones, asphalt mixture, and cement (raw
material and admixture ingredient). What is not reused from the non-metallic mineral
wastes generated will be disposed of as final disposal wastes.
2.2 Input–output table for analysis of non‑metallic mineral wastes
is paper constructs an IO table for the analysis of non-metallic mineral wastes to
comprehensively identify the material flow in non-metallic mineral wastes and the
related monetary flow among industries. e IO model addressing environmental loads
is generally established as the Leontif-Duchin environmental input–output (EIO) model
(Leontief 1970; Duchin 1990). While a normal IO table allocates monetary transactions
of goods and services among each sector, such as industry, household, and government,
Recycled aggregate for
concrete
Recycled asphalt
mixture
Other induses
Recycled aggregate for
concrete
Recycled asphalt
mixture
Natural asphalt
mixture
Natural aggregate for
concrete
Cement whose raw
maerial is replaced
with wastes
Cement with
various
ingredients added
Natural cement
Crushed stone for
recycled base course
Other recycled crushed
stone
Crushed stone for
recycled base course
Crushed stone for
natural base course
Construcon
industry
Other crushed stone
Coal ash
Iron and steel
slag
Final
disposal
Asphalt
concrete waste
Concrete waste
Naturalcement
raw materials
Naturalcrushed
stone
Supply
Demand
Naturalnon-metallic
mineral resource
Fig. 1 Material flow in supply and demand for non-metallic mineral wastes
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Ryoji et al. Economic Structures (2017) 6:37
in the form of a matrix, EIO tables are frequently developed by expanding the scope of
allocation to include environmental loads such as waste, energy, and air pollutant (see,
e.g., Leontief 1970; Bullard and Herendeen 1975; Nakamura and Kondo 2002; Guan and
Hubacek 2008). Focusing on application to waste analyses in the IO model, Nakamura
and Kondo (2002) establish the waste input–output (WIO) model, which explicitly iden-
tifies the interdependence between the flow of goods and waste in the entire economy,
and the model has been applied to many case studies (see, e.g., Kagawa 2005; Kagawa
etal. 2007; Reynolds etal. 2014; Tsukui etal. 2015).
is paper compiles an IO table for non-metallic mineral wastes analysis based on the
IO table in 2005 in Japan and other statistics. First, we modify the industrial classifica-
tions. Figure2 shows the relationship between the classification in the original table and
the compilation of classifications in the IO table for the analysis.
e industries involved in the supply of non-metallic mineral materials are crushed
stones, paving materials, pig iron, crude steel, electric power for enterprise use, on-
site power generation, and waste management services (private). We modify the input
sector (column) in these industries according to the materials of non-metallic mineral
resources, as shown in Table1, because the production technology in non-metallic min-
eral resources varies according to the materials.
On the other hand, non-metallic mineral materials are demanded mainly for use as
crushed stone for roads and concrete aggregate. Accordingly, the output of non-metallic
mineral materials, classified by materials in input sectors (column), is integrated to
crushed stone for roads, concrete aggregate, and other crushed stone as shown in Fig.2.1
To modify the industrial classifications in the IO table, we first estimate the monetary
production value of each non-metallic mineral material by identifying material outputs,
prices, mass/volume, and main sale destinations from several statistical sources, such as
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (2005) and Nippon Slag Association (2005).
In the input sector (column), it is possible to separate recycled crushed stone for roads
and recycled concrete aggregate from waste management services (private), and recy-
cled asphalt mixture from paving materials, according to further detailed materials by
using several statistics. We further divide these three industries in the output sector
(row), as shown in Table1. In Table1, non-metallic mineral wastes generated by these
three industries include concrete waste, asphalt concrete waste, iron and steel slag, and
coal ash. ese wastes are disposed of in different ways. is is why the three aforemen-
tioned industries are divided according to the production process. Concretely, we divide
the monetary production value in these three industries using the ratio of the volume of
input in each non-metallic mineral waste according to the materials shown in Table1.
As shown in Table2, conclusively, the classification number is nine in the output sec-
tor (row) and 20 in the input sector (column) among industries related to non-metallic
mineral wastes, and the other industries consist of 33 sectors. A point to be noted here is
that the other industries are not aggregated but divided by 33 sectors in the IO table and
the classification completely corresponds to both the input and output sectors. Table3
shows the classification in the 33 other industries. Accordingly, the constructed IO table
1 In the output sector, some other sectors are also integrated to facilitate the linear programming.
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Detailed sector classification in
the original table in Japan
Input sector (Column) in the
constructed IO table
Output sector (Row)in the
constructed IO table
Crushed stonesNatural crushed stones Crushed stones for roads
Naturel concrete aggregateConcrete aggregate
Other crushed stones Other crushed stones
Paving materialsNatural asphalt mixtureAsphalt mixture
Recycled asphalt mixture
Cement Cement Cement/cement products
Ready mixed concrete Ready mixed concrete
Cement products Cement products
Pig iron Pig iron/crude steelPig iron/crude steel
Crude steel (converters)
Crude steel (electric furnaces)
Repair of constructionRepair of constructionConstruction
Public construction of roadsPublic construction of roads
Residential construction
(wooden)
Other civil engineering and
construction
Residential construction
(non-wooden)
Non-residential construction
(wooden)
Non-residential construction
(non-wooden)
Public construction of rivers,
drainages, andothers
Agricultural public construction
Railway construction
Electric power facilities
construction
Telecommunication facilities
construction
Other civil engineering and
construction
Electric power for enterprise use Electric power, gas supply,and
steam and hot water supply
Electric power, gas supply,and
steam and hot water supply
On-site power generation
Gas supply
Steam and hot water supply
Waste management services
(public)
Waste management services
(public)
Waste management services
(public)
Waste management services
(private)
Recycled crushed stones for roads
Recycled concrete aggregate
Other recycled crushed stones
Other waste management services
(private)
Other waste management services
(private)
OtherindustriesOther industries Otherindustries
Fig. 2 Modification of industrial classifications in the IO table
Table 1 Further classification of non‑metallic mineral waste sectors
Further classification Raw material
Recycled crushed stones for roads 1 Concrete waste, asphalt concrete waste
Recycled crushed stones for roads 2 Iron and steel slag
Recycled concrete aggregate 1 Concrete waste
Recycled concrete aggregate 2 Iron and steel slag
Recycled asphalt mixture 1 Concrete waste, asphalt concrete waste
Recycled asphalt mixture 2 Iron and steel slag
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Ryoji et al. Economic Structures (2017) 6:37
for analysis of non-metallic mineral wastes consists of 42 output sectors and 53 input
sectors.
Regarding industries related to non-metallic mineral wastes, it is impossible to com-
pletely identify intermediate transactions from available statistics. erefore, we esti-
mate those transactions by applying the RAS method to accomplish the construction
of the IO table. e RAS method, the most widely-used method to estimate input coef-
ficients, estimates unknown matrices to approximate available input coefficient matrices
by using the summations of rows and columns in the IO table as control totals. In apply-
ing the RAS method, we use production values as control totals and input coefficients
based on the aforementioned statistics as initial values (see, e.g., Miller and Blair 2009)
for the outline of the RAS method and the calculation procedure).
3 Prediction of non‑metallic mineral wastes in 2030 via the linear
programming method
3.1 Japanese economy and non‑metallic mineral wastes in 2030
As noted in the introduction, the demand for construction is anticipated to decrease in
the future, and it has been on a downward trend in recent years. For instance, the
Research Institute of Construction and Economy (RICE) in Japan forecasts construction
investment in Japan in the present year and next year every 3months, and publishes the
Table 2 Industrial classification in the IO table for analysis of non‑metallic mineral wastes
Input sector (column) Output sector (row)
Industry related to non-metallic mineral wastes
1-1. Natural crushed stones 1. Crushed stones for roads
1-2. Recycled crushed stones for roads 1
1-3. Recycled crushed stones for roads 2
2-1. Natural concrete aggregate 2. Concrete aggregate
2-2. Recycled concrete aggregate 1
2-3. Recycled concrete aggregate 2
3-1. Other crushed stones 3. Other crushed stones
3-2. Other recycled crushed stones
4-1. Natural asphalt mixture 4. Asphalt mixture
4-2. Recycled asphalt mixture 1
4-3. Recycled asphalt mixture 2
5-1. Cement 5. Cement/cement products
5-2. Ready mixed concrete
5-3. Cement products
6. Pig iron/crude steel 6. Pig iron/crude steel
7. Other iron and steel 7. Other iron and steel
8-1. Repair of construction 8. Construction
8-2. Public construction of roads
8-3. Other civil engineering and construction
9. Electric power, gas supply and steam and hot water
supply 9. Electric power, gas supply, and steam and hot water
supply
Other industries (33 sectors) Other industries (33 sectors)
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Ryoji et al. Economic Structures (2017) 6:37
forecast results several times a year.2 Considering the forecasts, this paper assumes that
the final demand in the construction sector declines at an annual rate of 1.1% from 2012
to 2020 based on figures in the IO table in 2011, and will remain constant from 2021 to
2030. Accordingly, the final demand in the construction sector is assumed to decrease to
around 38.7 trillion yen, as shown in Table4. RICE conducts middle- and long-range
forecast for construction investment, and publishes them in Research Institute of Con-
struction and Economy (2016). e report forecasts construction investment in 2030 to
range from 37.5 to 43.4 trillion yen. erefore, our decile rate has validity to some extent
because the estimated value is within the range.
e final demand3 for crushed stones for roads, concrete aggregate, other crushed
stones, asphalt mixture and cement/cement products is expected to decrease, influenced
by construction’s trend. Accordingly, this paper assumes that the final demand in these
sectors declines at an annual rate of 1.1% from 2011 to 2020 and remains constant from
2021 to 2030; however, the decline rate of 1.5% is used from 2005 to 2010 for sectors in
which the amount of final demand cannot be identified from the IO table in 2011.
Regarding the total economy, based on figures in the IO table in 2011, the total GDP of
Japan is assumed to grow at a rate of 0.6, 0.9, 0.5, and 0% from 2011 to 2015, 2016 to
2020, 2021 to 2025, and 2026 to 2030, respectively.4
In the prediction of non-metallic mineral wastes, the generation of concrete waste and
asphalt concrete waste in the future is independent of production levels at that time,
2 e forecast results are available from the website of the Research Institute of Construction and Economy (RICE),
shown in http://www.rice.or.jp/english/index.html.
3 e products in some industries related to non-metallic mineral wastes are entirely demanded as intermediate goods,
but the final demand in this paper and in the IO table includes changes in stocks, exports, and imports.
4 To obtain the figures, we referred to the medium-term economic forecast by the Japan Center for Economic Research,
as shown in https://www.jcer.or.jp/research/middle/index.html.
Table 3 Classification of the 33 other industries
The classification numbers follow that of industry related to non‑metallic mineral wastes in Table 2
10 Agriculture, forestry, and
fisheries 21 Electrical equipment 32 Real estate
11 Other mining 22 Information and communica-
tion equipment 33 Transport
12 Food, beverage, and tobacco 23 Electrical equipment 34 Communication and broad-
casting
13 Textiles 24 Transport equipment 35 Public administration
14 Pulp, paper, and wooden
products 25 Precision machinery 36 Education and research
15 Chemical products 26 Miscellaneous manufacturing
products 37 Medical service, health, social
security, and nursing service
16 Petroleum refinery and coal 27 Water supply 38 Other public services
17 Miscellaneous ceramic, stone,
and clay products 28 Waste management services
(public) 39 Business services
18 Non-ferrous metal 29 Other waste management
services (private) 40 Personal services
19 Metal products 30 Trade 41 Office supplies
20 General machinery 31 Finance and insurance 42 Activities not elsewhere clas-
sified
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Ryoji et al. Economic Structures (2017) 6:37
because they are generated from both demolishing structures and repairing roads, in
contrast to iron and steel slag and coal ash.
For concrete waste and asphalt concrete waste it is assumed that the trend from the
actual value in 2005 to the value in 2020 predicted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastruc-
ture, Transport and Tourism5 in Japan will continue after 2020. On the other hand, the
generation of iron and steel slag and coal ash in 2030 is endogenously determined to be
dependent on the production value estimated by linear programming.
Table4 summarizes our assumption of the economy and non-metallic mineral wastes
in 2030, compared to the actual values in 2005.
3.2 Linear programming model for non‑metallic mineral wastes in 2030
Many studies use the linear programming technique to propose an optimal solution for
waste management or recycling policy (see e.g., Gnoni etal. 2008; Zhu and Huang 2011;
Song etal. 2016). Especially, linear programming models tend to be constructed based
on IO tables when the supply and demand balance in monetary production value or
the material flow balance in the entire economy are used as constraint conditions. For
instance, Kondo and Nakamura (2005) develop the WIO-LP model, which links an ordi-
nal WIO model to the linear programming model, to propose a systematic method for
eco-efficiency analysis.
Using the IO table for the analysis of non-metallic mineral wastes, this paper applies
a linear programming technique to consider the material flow and value added brought
about by non-metallic mineral wastes in 2030.
5 To obtain the figures, we referred to the forecast of construction waste generation of the Ministry of Land, Infrastruc-
ture, Transport and Tourism, shown at http://www.mlit.go.jp/sogoseisaku/region/recycle/pdf/fukusanbutsu/genjo/
yosoku.pdf.
Table 4 Actual values in 2005 and predicted values in 2030
2005 2030
GDP in the total economy (billion yen) 505,874 511,396
Final demand in industry related to non-metallic mineral wastes (million yen)
1 Crushed stones for roads 19,269 16,323
2 Concrete aggregate 3971 3364
3 Other crushed stones − 6665 − 7854
4 Asphalt mixture 984 788
5 Cement/cement products 11,293 − 4043
6 Pig iron/crude steel − 459,734 − 481,074
7 Other iron and steel 2,283,700 2,389,704
8 Construction 54,117,611 38,691,354
9 Electric power, gas supply, and steam and hot water supply 5,923,813 6,198,781
Generation of non-metallic mineral waste (1000 ton)
Concrete waste 32,153 54,780
Asphalt concrete waste 26,060 17,270
Iron and steel slag 40,450 –
Coal ash 11,152 –
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Ryoji et al. Economic Structures (2017) 6:37
Although the constructed IO table comprehensively identify monetary transactions
between industries related to non-metallic mineral wastes, it is not enough to use it
within the IO framework in order to consider not only monetary transactions but the
material flow representing the relationship between the generation, input, and final dis-
posal. On the other hand, a linear programming technique can compatibly combine the
material flow with monetary transactions by appropriately setting constraint conditions.
Furthermore, it can predict the status in the entire economy in the future under the
assumption of different scenarios to be aimed. erefore, it is useful for our analysis to
apply linear programming technique based on the constructed IO table.
First, we set the supply and demand equilibrium formulae in the goods and services
production sector and the waste sector of each industry as a constraint condition. ese
constraint formulae are given, respectively, as follows:
Equation(1) is the balance equation in the IO model representing supply and demand
equilibrium in goods and services production in the total economy. Here, X, A1, and
F represent production value, the technical coefficient, and final demand including
imports and exports, respectively.
Equation(2) represents the relationship between the generation, input, and final dis-
posal of non-metallic mineral wastes. W is the amount of generated concrete waste and
asphalt concrete waste. e actual values are 54,780 thousand tons (concrete waste) and
17,270 thousand tons (asphalt concrete waste), which are regarded as constant, because
these wastes are generated independently of the production value (X). On the other
hand, the generation of iron and steel slag and coal ash is represented as A2X, where
A2 is the generation coefficient indicating the amount of waste generated by one unit of
production. A3 is the waste input coefficient indicating recycled wastes input by one unit
of production. erefore, A3X represents the amount of all non-metallic mineral wastes
recycled in each industry.
As a constraint condition, we assume that the amount of input of wastes does not
exceed the generated waste; in other words, final disposal (L) is not negative. erefore,
Eq.(2) is rewritten as the actual constraint formulae as shown in (3). Furthermore, we
set a non-negative condition of production value (X) as shown in Eq.(4).
Second, we set target functions that represent policy targets. We set two target func-
tions, as shown in Eqs.(5) and (6).
(1)
X=A1X+F
(2)
W
+
A2X
−
A3X
=
L
(3)
54780
+
17270
+
A2X
−
A3X
≥
0
(4)
X≥0
(5)
max
x
j
=1
vjx
j
(6)
min
x
L
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Ryoji et al. Economic Structures (2017) 6:37
In Eq.(5), vj and xj, respectively, represent the value added coefficient and production
value in industries related to non-metallic mineral wastes, respectively, as shown in
Tables2 and 4. erefore, the target function in Eq.(5) represents the maximization of
value added in industries related to non-metallic mineral wastes. is situation can be
regarded as a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where industries are assumed to engage
in ordinal activities as private producers without reduction policies for wastes increasing
in 2030.
On the other hand, Eq.(6) represents the minimization of final disposal of non-metal-
lic mineral wastes, which can be regarded as a zero-emission scenario. is scenario
assumes that production activities are encouraged to decrease final disposal of wastes to
promote a recycling-oriented society.
For simplification, all coefficients of A1, A2, A3, and vj are assumed to be constant
during the period from 2005 to 2030. Although it is ideally desirable to predict these
coefficients in the future, it is almost impossible due to lack of statistics and literature.
Examining the trends of these coefficients in the past several yearsby investigating Min-
istry of Economy, Trade and Industry (2005) and Nippon Slag Association (2005), we
can find that they have not changed significantly. Furthermore, the assumption of con-
stants in the coefficients more directly reveals the influences brought about by the col-
lapse of balance of supply and demand for non-metallic mineral wastes, which is the
main focus of this paper.
4 Empirical results
4.1 Material flow of non‑metallic mineral wastes in 2030
First, in Figs.3, 4, and 5, we investigate the different material flows resulting from the
two scenarios, comparing them to that of 2005. Regarding the generation of concrete
waste and asphalt concrete waste, which is determined independently of production val-
ues at the time, the former increases and the latter decreases based on our assumption,
as summarized in Table4. e generation of iron and steel slag and coal ash does not
change significantly from 2005 to 2030 in these two scenarios, although it is determined
dependent on production values at that time.
Concrete waste
(unit: 1000 ton)
Waste generation
(Supply)
Recycle use (Demand)
Asphalt concrete
waste
Iron and steel slag
Coal ash
Crushed stones
Concrete aggregates (2)
Other crushed stones (3)
Asphalt mixture (4)
Cement/cement
Other industries
Final disposal
for roads (1)
products (5)
80
27870
3640
32153
563
10600
15100
26060
40450
11152
360
318
479
46141
3365
3640
15312
24595
15042
1720
203
7671 3285
17252
11721
9
7343
3321
Fig. 3 Material flows of non-metallic mineral wastes in 2005
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Ryoji et al. Economic Structures (2017) 6:37
Focusing on the BAU scenario in Fig.4, the total final disposal of non-metallic mineral
wastes in 2030 drastically increases to 22,507 thousand tons from 1720 thousand tons
in 2005. Although industries can achieve zero emissions of asphalt concrete waste and
iron and steel slag, even under the maximization of their value added, the final disposal
of concrete waste and coal ash increases to approximately 25 times and 18 times, respec-
tively, compared to the values for 2005. As shown in Fig.4, non-metallic mineral wastes
are not recycled as crushed stones at all if the related industries aim at maximization of
their value added.
Figure5 shows a material flow describing the minimization of final disposal in 2030.
e industries achieve zero emission in all non-metallic mineral wastes. In the zero
emission scenario, wastes recycled as crushed stone for roads and concrete aggre-
gate increase, but wastes for other uses decrease, compared to the values for 2005.
Concrete waste
(unit: 1000 ton)
Waste generation
(Supply)
Recycle use (Demand)
Asphalt concrete
waste
Iron and steel slag
Coal ash
Crushed stones
Concrete aggregates (2)
Other crushed stones (3)
Asphalt mixture (4)
Cement/cement
Other industries
Final disposal
for roads (1)
products (5)
40867
54780
13913
17270
17270
38394
11122
0
0
8594
0
40867
0
30620
19727
7844
22507
386
13341
19341
5712
10
2132
Fig. 4 Material flows of non-metallic mineral wastes in 2030 (BAU scenario)
Concrete waste
(unit: 1000 ton)
Waste generation
(Supply)
Recycle use (Demand)
Asphalt concrete
waste
Iron and steel slag
Coal ash
Crushed stones
Concrete aggregates (2)
Other crushed stones (3)
Asphalt mixture (4)
Cement/cement
Other industries
Final disposal
for roads (1)
products (5)
45407
54780
0
17270
17270
38815
11388
0
0
0
62677
24251
0
0
21362
13963
0
14878
12921
8442
2947
11017
9373
Fig. 5 Material flows of non-metallic mineral wastes in 2030 (zero emission scenario)
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Ryoji et al. Economic Structures (2017) 6:37
Specifically, the amount of input to other crushed stone and asphalt mixture is zero.
Concrete waste is not recycled as other crushed stone in these two scenarios.
4.2 Value added brought about by non‑metallic mineral wastes in 2030
Next, we focus on the effect on the economy brought about by the change in material
flow from 2005 to 2030. Table5 shows value added in 2005 and 2030 in the two scenar-
ios and Fig.6 shows the ratio of change from 2005.
Focusing on the BAU scenario, compared to values for 2005, crushed stone for roads
and asphalt mixture drastically increase in the BAU scenario, while other crushed stones
fall to zero. e zero value in the sector means that domestic production is completely
stopped and demand is satisfied by imports. Other sectors do not largely change from
2005, except for an increase in cement/cement products and a decrease in construction.
On the other hand, in the zero emission scenario, the volumes of value added are
smaller than in 2005 or at approximately the same level, except for the increase of
Table 5 Value added in industries related to non‑metallic mineral wastes (billion yen)
2005 2030 (BAU scenario) 2030 (zero emission
scenario)
1 Crushed stones for roads 111 289 89
2 Concrete aggregate 61 60 74
3 Other crushed stones 76 0 72
4 Asphalt mixture 235 614 74
5 Cement/cement products 1271 1587 853
6 Pig iron/crude steel 1808 1716 1734
7 Other iron and steel 4232 4053 4091
8 Construction 29,185 22,432 22,243
9 Electric power, gas supply, and steam and hot water
supply 8129 8271 8323
Total industries related to non-metallic mineral wastes 45,109 39,021 37,554
0100 200300
Electric power, gas supply, and steam and hot
water supply (9)
Construction (8)
Other iron and steel (7)
Pig iron/crude steel (6)
Cement/cement products (5)
Asphalt mixture (4)
Other crushed stones (3)
Concrete aggregate (2)
Crushed stones for roads (1)
(Values in 2005 =100)
BAU Scenario
Zero-emission
Scenario
Fig. 6 Change in value added from 2005
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Ryoji et al. Economic Structures (2017) 6:37
concrete aggregate. Furthermore, asphalt mixture and cement/cement products are
largely decreased in contrast to the BAU scenario.
e value added of crushed stone for roads, other crushed stones, asphalt mixture,
and cement/cement production are largely different between the two scenarios, while
that of the other industries is approximately at the same level. e total value added in
industries related to non-metallic mineral wastes decreases from 2005 in both scenarios
because of the decline in final demand for construction and the related industries, as
shown in Table4. e total value added in the BAU scenario (39,021 billion yen), aiming
at maximizing value added, is larger than that in the zero emission scenario (37,554 bil-
lion yen). However, the difference is only 3.76%.
5 Discussion and conclusion
is paper, shedding light on the increase in generation of non-metallic mineral wastes
and decrease in demand for construction, investigates the material flow resulting from
and the economic influence of changes in the supply and demand for wastes, focusing
on the period from the near future to 2030. Specifically, we construct an IO table for the
analysis of non-metallic mineral wastes to identify monetary and material flows between
industries related to the supply and demand for non-metallic mineral wastes. Based on
the constructed IO table, we predict the material flow and value added brought about
by non-metallic mineral wastes in 2030 in the BAU and the zero emission scenarios by
developing a linear programming model.
In the BAU scenario, the total final disposal of non-metallic mineral wastes in 2030
drastically increases to 22,507 thousand tons from 1720 thousand tons in 2005, and total
value added in the related industries is 390,212 billion yen. On the other hand, the zero
emission scenario achieves zero emission in final disposal and obtains a value added of
37,554 billion yen.
is result implies that if the policy for non-metallic mineral waste management is
thoroughly carried out in the future, zero emission can be achieved at the small cost of a
3.76% decrease in the value added. Otherwise, the final disposal might increase 13 times
that of 2005. A drastic increase of final disposal waste leads to the shortage of landfill
and generates huge social costs, including not only private costs, as the disposal cost,
but also external costs, such as environmental contamination. Such a social cost would
be much larger than a decrease by 3.76% in the value added. Focusing on the result, we
can suggest the zero emission scenario and encourage waste policies to minimize final
disposal of non-metallic mineral wastes.
Furthermore, our analyses enable us to discuss policy implications by materials and
industries.
Our analyses show that zero emission can be achieved in asphalt concrete waste and
iron and steel slag, even in the BAU scenario. is implies that it is effective for future
waste management to stress on recycling concrete waste and coal ash from the view-
point of material flow, while the remaining wastes are expected to voluntarily decrease
their final disposal in the future.
Our analyses also clarify the industries in which value added significantly changes
between the two scenarios and two periods. In the discussion on waste policies, it is
important to pay attention to large differences between the two scenarios. e zero
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Ryoji et al. Economic Structures (2017) 6:37
emission scenario largely decreases the value added in crushed stones for roads, asphalt
mixture, and cement/cement products, compared to the BAU scenario. It is expected
that these industries will suffer from economic declines caused by aiming at zero emis-
sion in the zero emission scenario, while they are expected to achieve economic growth
after 2005 in the BAU scenario. erefore, we can conclude that it is necessary for these
industries to cope with the negative economic influence caused by the enforcement of
waste reduction policies for final disposal.
On the other hand, the zero emission scenario increases the value added in concrete
aggregate and other crushed stones, compared to the BAU scenario. e result implies
that the reduction policies contribute to further economic growth in concrete aggregate
because its value added in the zero emission scenario is larger than that in 2005. Fur-
thermore, the reduction policies also contribute to sustaining the scale of the business in
other crushed stones; otherwise, the production is completely stopped.
Our approach is expected to be widely applicable to other countries, which will face
a phenomenon similar to Japan, and be further developed by considering the change in
production technology for material input and waste generation, which was not exam-
ined in this study.
Authors’ contributions
HN designed the first version of analytical framework and compiled the dataset with respect to material flow in non-
metallic mineral wastes. He was mainly in charge of Sects. 1, 2.1, and 3.1. RH largely modified the first version. He was
mainly in charge of the remaining sections and subsections and is responsible for all parts of the study. TS proposed the
outline and the aim in the study and totally checked the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Author details
1 Faculty of Urban Management, Fukuyama City University, 2-19-1, Minatomachi, Fukuyama, Hiroshima 721-0964, Japan.
2 Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kyushu University, 744, Moto-Oka,
Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan.
Acknowledgements
The first version of this study was presented at the 24th International Input-Output Conference, held in Seoul, Korea,
from 4th to 8th July 2016. The authors are grateful to editors and anonymous referees for their useful comments and
suggestions for revising the paper.
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Availability of data and materials
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Both the authors have consent to publish this manuscript with Journal of Economic Structure.
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Not applicable.
Funding
This paper is not sponsored by any funding.
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Received: 21 December 2016 Accepted: 14 December 2017
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