A Mixed Method Examination of Law Enforcement Investigatory Strategies Used in Jihadi and Far-right Foiled Terrorist Plots Before and After 9/11

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A Mixed Method Examination of Law Enforcement Investigatory Strategies Used in Jihadi
and Far-right Foiled Terrorist Plots Before and After 9/11
Manuscript prepared for the Journal of Qualitative Criminal Justice and Criminology (JQCJC)
(forthcoming in the special issue on terrorism and extremism).
Manuscript with copy edits accepted on 12.11.2017
*Brent R. Klein
School of Criminal Justice
Michigan State University
655 Auditorium Rd. Room 557
East Lansing, MI 48824
kleinbr8@msu.edu
Jeff Gruenewald, PhD
School of Public and Environmental Affairs
Indiana University-Purdue University, Indianapolis
Steven M. Chermak, PhD
School of Criminal Justice
Michigan State University
Joshua D. Freilich, JD; PhD
Department of Criminal Justice; Doctoral Program in Criminal Justice
John Jay College, CUNY
*Corresponding Lead Author
Funding Acknowledgment: This research was funded by grants from the U.S. Department of Homeland
Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate’s University Program Division; and the Resilient
Systems Division both directly and through the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and
Responses to Terrorism (START). Funding was also provided by a grant from John Jay College's Office
of Advancement of Research. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the
authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or
implied, of DHS, START or John Jay College.
Abstract
Empirical research on the law enforcement strategies used to prevent terrorism has increased
since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Yet, few studies have examined how these
preventative approaches vary based on terrorists’ ideological affiliations and across time. This
study thus explores the similarities and differences in law enforcement investigatory strategies
used to thwart global jihadi and far-right terrorist violence prior to and since the 9/11 terrorism
events. Employing a convergent parallel mixed method research design, our study analyzes both
quantitative and qualitative data on 86 terrorism enterprise investigations from the U.S.
Extremist Crime Database (ECDB). The quantitative data analyses examine patterns relating to
how investigations are initiated, the agencies involved, and the roles of human intelligence in
foiling terrorist violence. Complementary qualitative case narratives are then used to explore in
more detail the investigatory process for a subset of cases. We discuss several noteworthy
findings that have implications for both law enforcement practitioners as well as future scholarly
research.
INVESTIGATORY STRATEGIES USED IN FOILED TERRORIST PLOTS IN U.S.
1
Introduction
Since 2001, homeland security efforts in the United States have understandably been
oriented toward disrupting global and homegrown jihadists and preventing the next 9/11 terrorist
attacks. After 9/11, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) made thwarting terrorist attacks its
top priority and state, local, and tribal (SLT) law enforcement were asked to become active
participants in the national counterterrorism mission. Nonetheless, it is invariably the terrorist
attacks that come to fruition and are successfully executed which capture the attention of media
and policymakers. Despite a dramatic increase in empirical terrorism studies published since
9/11, few scholarly studies highlight the characteristics of terrorism plots and almost no work
explores what law enforcement do to foil them. Consequently, little is known about the general
attributes of terrorist plots, such as the agencies involved and the strategies used, or about the
nuanced investigatory processes encompassing how plots are initiated and unfold. Further,
research has yet to explore how the nature of investigations may have changed over time,
specifically since 9/11, and differ by the type of terrorists being investigated. In other words,
how might investigations of jihadists since 9/11 compare to those of far-right terrorists who were
increasingly active during the 1990s and have reemerged as a serious threat to the U.S.?
We address these questions by examining 86 violent terrorist plot investigations from the
U.S. Extremist Crime Database (ECDB), an open-source project that contains systematically
codified data as well as thousands of pages of raw information for each plot (Freilich, Chermak,
Belli, Gruenewald, & Parkin, 2014). While interested in overall patterns of terrorism
investigations, we also compare the similarities and differences in how law enforcement agencies
foil terrorist plots involving far-right and global jihad terrorists before and after the 9/11 terrorist
attacks. Employing a convergent parallel mixed-method design, we utilize quantitative and
INVESTIGATORY STRATEGIES USED IN FOILED TERRORIST PLOTS IN U.S.
2
qualitative methods to explore the investigatory strategies used by law enforcement to thwart
terrorist attacks in the U.S. Quantitative, descriptive analyses are conducted to uncover general
patterns of plot investigations across time and terrorist ideology. We also conduct
complementary qualitative analyses to develop a more comprehensive understanding of dynamic
investigatory processes – including sequenced interactions between law enforcement, terrorists,
and their situated environments – involved in foiled terrorist plots.
Background and Prior Research
Law enforcement practices were significantly impacted by the 9/11 terrorist attacks
(Davis, Pollard, Ward, Wilson, Varda, Hansell, & Steinberg, 2010; Gruenewald, Klein, Chermak
& Freilich, 2016), but little is known about if and how relevant changes have impacted the
strategies used to foil terrorism plots. Key changes, for example, include the FBI altering its
reactive, crime-fighting focus to make preventing terrorism its top priority (Bjelopera, 2013),
while expanding domestic and international counterterrorism efforts. Other significant post 9/11
changes within the FBI include the hiring of a large number of agents and intelligence analysts,
restructuring of the organization, revamping training strategies, and attempts to improve
engagement with the intelligence cycle (Cumming & Masse, 2004). In addition to these
organizational changes, revisions to the U.S. Attorney General Guidelines in 2002 and 2008
removed restrictions to provide the FBI with more discretion to proactively initiate long-term
investigations on persons suspected of plotting terrorist acts against the U.S. (Berman, 2011). At
the same time, the passage of the USA Patriot Act gave agents more power to conduct secretive
searches, monitor modern forms of communication, and access third-party records to intercept
terrorist plots (Bjelopera, 2013). Identifying sharing gaps across the nation’s fragmented law
enforcement structure, policies and procedures were changed to significantly expand the role of
INVESTIGATORY STRATEGIES USED IN FOILED TERRORIST PLOTS IN U.S.
3
SLT law enforcement agencies, fundamentally changing how information is shared both
horizontally and vertically between agencies (Carter, Carter, & Chermak, 2013; Carter, Carter,
Chermak, & McGarrell, 2017). In response, many SLT law enforcement agencies have since
expanded their intelligence gathering practices, and there have been fundamental changes in the
national, state, and local information sharing infrastructure.
American SLT law enforcement agencies remain concerned about affiliates of both far-
right extremism and jihadism (Chermak, Freilich, & Simone, 2010; Freilich, Chermak, &
Simone, 2009; Levitt, 2017). Findings from the U.S. Extremist Crime Database (ECDB) reveal
that supporters of Al Qaeda and affiliated movements committed over 45 homicide incidents that
claimed over 3,000 lives since 1990. Far-right terrorists have committed over 190 ideologically
motivated homicide events claiming over 450 lives in this same period (Freilich et al., 2014).
Strom et. al (2017), who studied terrorism plots foiled between 1995 and 2012, conclude that
both jihadists and far-rightists accounted for the majority of actors planning to attack the U.S.
and that each ideological movement engaged in a similar number of the identified plots.
Importantly, though, scholars have yet to investigate whether distinct investigatory
strategies are utilized for intercepting terrorists who are driven by different ideologies. Extreme
far-rightists and jihadists have attacked, or have planned to attack, a diverse list of targets using
various strategies (Drake, 1998; Kaplan, 2012; Legault & Hendrickson, 2009; Lemanski &
Wilson, 2016; Gruenewald, et al., 2016). While some attacks are carried out by multiple
offenders associated with formal groups, far-right and jihadi lone actor events are also of major
concern and may be on the rise in the U.S. (Gruenewald, Chermak, & Freilich, 2013; Michael,
2012; Pantucci, 2013; Spaaij, 2010; Strom et. al, 2017). Law enforcement must be concerned
about both international and homegrown threats, including "foreign fighters" who travel abroad
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