Population, Resources and Development: Riding the Age Waves
Abstract
In the 21st century, the populations of the world’s nations will display large and long-lived changes in age structure. Many of these began with fertility change and are amplified by declining mortality and by migration within and between nations. Demography will matter in this century not by force of numbers, but by the pressures of waves of age structural change.
Many developing countries are in relatively early stages of fertility decline and will experience age waves for two or more generations. These waves create shifting flows of people into the key age groups, greatly complicating the task of managing development, from building human capabilities and creating jobs to growing industry, infrastructure and institutions. In this book, distinguished scientists examine key demographic, social, economic, and policy aspects of age structural change in developing economies.
This book provides a joint examination of dimensions of age structural change that have often been considered in isolation from each other (for example, education, job creation, land use, health); it uses case studies to examine policy consequences and options and develops qualitative and formal methods to analyze the dynamics and consequences of age structural change.
Chapters (11)
This book is about age structural transitions and their policy implications in the 21 st century. The book's central thesis is that the population age structure in most countries around the world is undergoing cyclical, often irregular, change that will persist for many decades. These changing age structures will shape changes in human, social, institutional and economic needs and capacities, and pose significant challenges to policy makers. The description, analysis and prediction of these changes call for new methods and perspectives in several directions that are the subject of the chapters in this book. First, this book demonstrates that in virtually all countries over the coming decades age structural transitions will affect cohorts at all stages of the life cycle, not just the young or the old. Second, this book shows explicitly how to use analyses of human capital and human development as a way to link age structural transitions to policy needs and 1 Listed in alphabetical order.
The paper will argue that human resource development has had much to do with both the demographic transition in these countries and their generally rapid rates of economic growth. It will show that declining fertility affects numbers entering the school-going ages and later the working ages. Fertility decline both eases the burden of expanding education systems and lowers dependency burdens over a considerable period of time. But rapid expansion of education systems can beget more problems, if job opportunities are not increasing rapidly enough to absorb the growing numbers of educated young people entering the workforce. Finally, the paper shows the importance of planning ahead for fluctuations in the growth of particular age groups, caused by rapid declines in fertility and, in some cases, echo effects resulting from temporary increases in fertility.
This paper describes a simple macro-simulation model developed by the author for projecting the distribution of elderly women by numbers of living children 25 years into the future. The model is designed for late-transitional and post-transitional populations. For most developing countries, all the input data can be found in published tabulations. The model is implemented on a computer spreadsheet, a copy of which may be obtained from the author. This paper describes the model and a test of the model’s validity. It then applies the model to South Korea’s demographic transition and to Thailand’s HIV/AIDS epidemic.
The goal of this paper is to examine the early stages in the sequence by considering the policy consequences of changing population structure in the aftermath of fertility decline. The approach taken focuses on governmental expenditures on education, health and pensions. The focus on government is simply a reflection of the central role that governments play in the areas of human capital and welfare. This paper presents an analytically based method to combine economic and demographic information in order to understand and illuminate policy issues. The analysis does not directly address endogenous changes in demography and economy, although some of these can be taken into account indirectly, as will be indicated.
In the new millennium, the demographic shift from a younger to an older population age structure will be a universal feature of the world’s populations, including Thailand. In most industrialized countries this process has occurred gradually, taking up to a century, which has allowed societies and economies to adapt to their demographic evolution. In Thailand, this process has been rapid and will continue to accelerate. The rapidity of the current change in Thailand stands in contrast to historical developments in Western countries. This implies that Thailand will face emergent issues related to social security, health care costs and intergenerational equity in a far shorter time span than was true in the West. The development of appropriate policies and programs to tackle these issues is required. This paper attempts to demonstrate the future burden, for the family and society, of an older population and their needs. The paper begins with an overview of the population ageing process, followed by a description of the elderly population’s economic circumstances. Trends in labour-force participation, income level, debt, savings, income sufficiency and satisfaction, and the main sources of income are presented. Preparation for old age among the elderly and the near elderly will be discussed in order to highlight the need for policies and programs which will ensure the economic well-being of the future elderly. In this paper, elderly is defined as those who are 60 years old and over. Data Sources Most of the data provided in the paper are from the two major national surveys of the elderly: the 1986 Socio-Economic Consequences of the Ageing of the Population in Thailand (SECAPT); and, the 1995 Survey of the Welfare of the Elderly in Thailand (SWET). Both surveys were conducted by the College of Population Studies of Chulalongkorn University, formally known as the Institute of Population Studies. The SECAPT study interviewed 3,252 respondents and SWET interviewed 4,486 respondents aged 60 and over nationwide. In addition, 3,222 persons aged 50–59 were also interviewed in SWET. Details of the research design and methodology of the SECAPT and SWET are described
This paper discusses the implications of population ageing for policies regarding support for older persons in Singapore. Singapore is one of the fastest ageing populations in Asia as a result of extremely successful family planning policies instituted in the 1960s (Saw 1999). As such, Singapore is an excellent case study of the effects of rapid ageing on State policies. Currently 7 percent of Singapore’s population is over the age of 65; however, by 2030 this will increase to 19 percent (Inter-Ministerial Committee on Ageing Report 1999). As Pool discusses in Chapter 2 of this volume, age-structural transitions affect supply and demand factors within a society, differentially putting pressure on key life-cycle stages and consequently policies catering to the needs of populations at specific ages. In this paper I discuss the policy implications of population ageing in the areas of financial security, employment, living arrangements, and health care. I combine this discussion with illustrations using recently available longitudinal data for Singapore. My focus is on the changing needs of the elderly over time and the need for policy makers to take these changes into account when developing policies for older adults. Given increases in life expectancy, the importance of changing needs within the span of ‘old age’ (from age 65 onwards) becomes even more pertinent. Longitudinal data provide for more accurate projections of the changing needs of the elderly over time (Andrews and Hermalin 2000). For example, housing and health care policies for the aged may have to be finetuned so as to cater to the specific needs of the young-old (65–74) versus the oldest-old (75+). The family has traditionally been the main source of support for the elderly in Asia, and Singapore is no exception. In recent decades, academic debate has centered upon gauging the effect of modernization or industrialization on levels of familial support (Cowgill and Holmes 1972; Martin and Kinsella 1994). This interest intersects with the awareness of policy-makers in Asia that traditional family support of the elderly may decline in future. There is some evidence of declining levels of familial support in countries such as China and India due to the effects of massive rural–urban migration of young adults, and changes in the occupational structures (World Bank 1994). This has led some policy makers to decry the influence of ‘Westernization’ and its by-product, individualism. However, there is also evidence to suggest that the Asian family is adapting to changing economies and that elderly well-being is not declining. Research on intergenerational transfers in Indonesia,
... Tako bitne varijable za populacionu politiku, u zavisnosti od kohortne pozicije određene starosne grupe, mogu biti mladi (zdravlje odojčadi i dece i odnosno, srednje i visoko obrazovanje), radnosposobni (stvaranje i mobilnost poslova, geografska raspoređenost, nezaposlenost, stanovanje, zdravlje) i stariji stanovnici (penzije, štednja, porodična i državna pomoć, zdravstvena briga, invalidnost). Razvoj stanovništva nije jednoobrazan već posledica turbulentnih kohortnih oscilacija, pa je neophodno konsultovati model starosnostukturnih tranzicija jer slučajevi demografske istorije bez većih potresa bi postojali samo u zatvorenim populacijama, dok je realnost smenjivanje krnjih i kompenzacionih generacija (Pool 2005;Pool, Prachuabmoh i Tuljapurkar 2005). ...
... Tako dolazi do duplih i višestruktih oscilacija u drugoj odnosno trećoj međufazi, a razdvaja ih jedna generacija. U poslednjoj fazi nakon porasta ukupne populacije kao posledice momentuma dolazi do stacionarne faze praćene opadanjem veličine populacije, što sveukupno znači i starenje stanovništva (Pool 2005 ...
Dok je starenje stanovništva logična posledica demografskih tranzicija, jer je u srži ovog fenomena nizak fertilitet i produženo očekivano trajanje života, in-trigantna je njegova paradoksalnost kada se posmatra u širem društvenom kontekstu. Sa jedne strane je to civili-zacijski trijumf u kontrolisanju reproduk-tivnog ponašanja i dostizanju dugovečnos-ti, dok propratne posledice ovog fenomena na socioekonomske sisteme imaju difuzno i percipirano negativno dejstvo. Tako je teorijsko uobličavanje pristupa u izučavanju demografskog starenja izazov-no i traži napuštanje rigidnih teorijskih postavki i uključivanje celog korpusa modela, koncepata i pristupa. Revidiranje teorije demografske tranzicije i integrisan-je efekta momentuma i tranzicije starosti u njene okvire otkriva buduća kretanja i u fertilitetu, mortalitetu i starosnoj strukturi, što klasična teorija ne uspeva. Nivo fertili-teta je dugo bio glavni faktor starenja stanovništva, da bi tek skoro mortalitet počeo da dobija značajniju ulogu u ovom procesu. Pitanja kako će buduće kretanje očekivanog trajanja života izgledati dato je preko tri teorijska pravca: kompresije morbiditeta, dinamičke ravnoteže i ek-spanzije morbiditeta. Uvažavanje neregu-larnih kohortnih tokova koji dovode do "starosne ondulacije" bitno je za sadašnji i budući balans populacije zbog potencijal-nih institucionalnih odgovora. Značaj kohortnih tokova za starenje stanovništva, posmatran kroz koncept demografskog metabolizma, otkriva čvorove na kojima postoji veća demografska "gustina" što, osim teoretskog, ima praktični značaj u životnim ciklusima određene populacije. Osavremenjivanje izučavanja starenja stanovništva je poželjno i preko prospek-tivnog pristupa jer daje okvire starenja u kojima je ugrađena komponenta promene u očekivanom trajanju života.
... This study shows that while nuclear households are still common, they will be less common future than they are today, and oneperson households will show a significant increase compared with the other household types. The results of this study are compatible with those of other studies that have used DHS data and census records (14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20). ...
The main objective of this study was to analyze the current household patterns of the elderly in Turkey and project in what kinds of households the elderly will live in the future.
The household structure of the elderly population was analyzed using tabulated data from Turkey’s Address-Based Population Registration System, for the first time ever. Household projections were produced according to the headship rate method.
The percentage of households with elderly persons will continuously increase, from 22.5% in 2016 to approximately 41% in 2050. The presence of elderly in all household types will continuously increase during that period, except extended-family households. While in 2016 9.9% of nuclear families lived with at least one elderly person, by 2050 this percentage will have risen to 19.6%. One-person elderly households will also continuously increase, from 5.4% in 2016 to 14.7% in 2050.
The elderly population in Turkey will mostly live in one-family households in the future, as is the case at present, but there will be an increase in the number of elderly living in one-person households. In 2050, about 15% of all households in Turkey will be one person elderly households. The elderly will steadily move from co-residence lifestyles to single-resident lifestyles.
... This study shows that while nuclear households are still common, they will be less common future than they are today, and oneperson households will show a significant increase compared with the other household types. The results of this study are compatible with those of other studies that have used DHS data and census records (14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20). ...
Introduction: Muscle loss is associated with increased frailty in the geriatric population. In this study, we aimed to explore the association of ultrasonographic measurements of extremity muscle thickness with functional capacity, balance and falls. Materials and Method: Fifty patients aged >65 years were enrolled. Upper arm and thigh muscle thicknesses were measured using ultrasound, and hand grip strength was measured using a handheld dynamometer. The functional capacity of lower extremity was assessed on the basis of walking speed and a chair stand test. The timed up and go test and four square step test were used to evaluate dynamic balance. The fear of falling was assessed using Tinetti’s Scale. Results: The mean age of patients was 71.8±5.7 years. Measurements of the thigh muscle thickness of patients were negatively correlated with walking speed, timed up and go test, four square step test and the fear of falling (p<0.01) and positively with chair stand test (p<0.05) and hand grip strength (p<0.001). Hand grip strength was positively correlated with chair stand test and negatively with walking speed, timed up and go test, four square step test and Tinetti’s scores (p<0.01). Measurements of upper arm muscle thickness were positively correlated with hand grip strength (p<0.01). Conclusion: Ultrasonographic assessment of lower extremity muscle thickness seems to improve the predictability of decline in functional capacity and loss of balance, possibly contributing to prevention of falls in the elderly.
... Thus, the issue of maintaining social and economic sustainability became more visible both in research as well as the policy agenda (Bohn 2009;Botev 2012;Davis 2002;Pool 2005;Soest et al. 2010;Turner 2009;Walker 2015 expenditure and revenue. This approach takes into account that the actual impact of ageing on public finance is augmented by current policies. ...
Age waves is theoretical concept that take into account the importance of disordered cohort flows, mainly as by-product of demographic transition (fluctuating fertility and improved survival), but also external factors (especially wars). The primary age wave as a consequence of high births after the Second World War in Serbia did not remain an isolated phenomenon, but created a secondary cohort wave although the fertility indicators were declining, which is visible as the thickening of the pyramid base in 1981 due to the absolute increase in births. Cohort “tide“ has influenced the shape of the pyramid to longer retain the properties of the stationary type because the baby boom generation reproduced the “echo“ generation, which is a counterbalance to extreme demographic aging as the baby boom generation entered the contingent of the old population. A cohort analysis of the elderly population shows that the declining share of the elderly in a certain age group is typical for cohorts born during turbulent times, most often wars, while cohorts born afterwards form more numerous generations. A half-century characteristic of the Serbian population is an absolute increase of people older than 65, but it does not automatically mean an adequate increase in the relative share of the elderly because it depends on the number of other age groups and their cohort trajectories. The methodological tool that can valorize heterogeneity of the old population is important for societies with past oscillations in fertility and migratory movements. In this study, the usefulness of the arithmetic and geometric coefficients of aging was tested on the example of baby boom and baby bust generations and their position in the old population, revealing periods when rejuvenation or aging of the old has dominated
This chapter explores the idea of creating statistical intervals for population forecasts based on stochastic forecasts of the cohort-change ratios (CCR). We provide an overview of the three approaches that have been used to assess population forecast uncertainty; judgment and personal opinion, a range of forecasts based on alternative scenarios, and statistical forecast intervals. This chapter focuses on the latter approach. We describe and evaluate a method for developing statistical intervals around population forecasts by age and for the total population. The method combines regression modeling of the cohort change ratios used in the Hamilton-Perry (H-P) method. The evaluation of state-level forecasts shows the intervals are neither so wide they are meaningless nor so narrow they are overly restrictive and that, overall, the percent of the forecasts contained within the intervals is consistent with the uncertainly level of the intervals. We make some observations regarding the limitations of this approach to measuring forecast uncertainty and conclude with suggestions for further work.
This paper responds to recent calls for empirical study of the impact of age-structural transition. It begins by reviewing evidence of cohort oscillations in 20th-century Indonesia, which indicates that current older generations are likely to have smaller numbers of children on whom they may rely than generations before and after them. To assess whether the imbalances implied by this situation are actually influencing people’s lives, however, requires attention to further factors shaping the availability and reliability of younger generations, notably differences in socio-economic status and in patterns of intergenerational support flows. Community-level Indonesian data confirm that elders in lower social strata are child poor. Social structural and family network patterns, however, have a greater influence on the availability of intergenerational support than cohort differentials
This chapter connects the concept known as the potential demographic dividend with key features of Indigenous and non-Indigenous demography − namely markedly different age structures occurring as the result of being at different stages of demographic transition − in three ‘Anglo-Celtic Settler’ countries: New Zealand, Australia and Canada. It proposes that when relatively youthful subpopulations such as Māori and Australian and Canadian Aboriginals co-exist alongside their structurally older counterparts who are disproportionately heading for retirement they comprise an economic dividend system that produces the potential for a collateral demographic dividend. A distinction is also introduced between a relative collateral dividend, which has the potential to occur for the younger population per se, and an aggregate collateral dividend, which has the potential to occur for the overall population − this being largely dependent on the size of the younger population.
This chapter covers the period from 1950 to 2010, with projections of demographic trends to 2050. It describes the diversity of the world demographic landscape, outlines future population trends, and analyzes present and future population issues. It intends to highlight the fact that population issues matter, and so do population policies.
The impact of ageing on community well-being has been part of the policy discourse in the West, but it is a relatively new problem for the post-socialist countries in Eastern Europe. This study focuses on the patterns of ageing in rural Romania and Bulgaria, offering a holistic view of vulnerabilities, including persistent rural disadvantages, ageing in the countryside and the post-socialist transformation. Aggregate statistics and community case studies reveal the links between demographic processes and community development. This paper contributes to the country-specific analysis of the ageing European periphery in the context of social cohesion as a fundamental European goal.
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