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Climate change impact on global potato production
... Multiple studies have looked at the impact of climate change on potato production at the global level (e.g., Adekanmbi et al., 2024;Fleisher et al., 2017;Raymundo et al., 2018) or in various regions of the world (e.g., Adavi et al., 2018 in Iran;Kim & Webber, 2024 in South Korea;Rabia et al., 2018 in Egypt). The variability of the projections is quite high, based, for example, on the regions, climate models, and CO 2 increases. ...
... The variability of the projections is quite high, based, for example, on the regions, climate models, and CO 2 increases. For a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 projection, which is a high and pessimistic scenario of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere adopted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report in 2014, Raymundo et al. (2018) projected yield reductions by 2055 for most of the northern hemisphere temperate climate, except in Western Europe. Moreover, they showed that interannual yield variability and climate uncertainty in North America were high compared with the other temperate regions. ...
... Its performance was good with an NRMSE of between 10% and 20% in the Northwestern United States (Woli & Kumar, 2016) and with an NRMSE of 12.3% and a model efficiency of 0.6% in the Northeastern United States (Tooley et al., 2021). Moreover, it was used to simulate the effect of climate change on global potato production (Raymundo et al., 2018). The DNDC model has also been used to simulate potato growth in several studies in China (e.g., Shi et al., 2023;, and it was used in Canada for simulating the nitrogen balance of crop rotations that include potato . ...
Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is an important staple crop in Canada. Past studies have forecasted future yield decreases under climate change, which could have major consequences for the economy of some regions. However, limitations in those studies suggest that further investigations are needed. In this study, we simulated the effect of 15 climate change scenarios (classified from low to moderate and high) on potato potential (no N and water stresses) and rainfed (no N stress) yields at 59 locations across Canada representing current and future potential production regions using three crop models (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer [DSSAT], DeNitrification and DeComposition [DNDC], and Simulateur mulTI‐disciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard [STICS]). Simulation trends were generally consistent across all three crop models and suggested (1) an increase in potential and rainfed yields in the future (up to 4.4 t ha⁻¹ dry matter in 2051–2080 compared with 1991–2020) in the northern regions where production is currently limited, if not impossible, due to a too short growing season; (2) a slight‐to‐moderate increase in potential and rainfed yields in the near future (2021–2050) for the remaining regions with greater increases for drier regions (0.7–3.1 t ha⁻¹) than in wetter regions (0.5–1.4 t ha⁻¹); and (3) stable or lower yields (up to −2.7 t ha⁻¹) in the distant future (2051–2080), for most regions except the northern ones, due to excessively high temperatures, especially in the moderate and high‐climate change scenarios. This study gave the first extensive projections of future potato yield in Canada, including northern locations where production may become possible.
... It is cultivated in over 100 countries and regions [3], playing a significant role in ensuring global food security and economic development [4][5][6]. According to data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global potato-cultivating areas are divided into six major growing environments, as shown in Figure 1 [7], with two each in temperate, subtropical, and tropical environments [8,9]. Global potato production reached 368.8 million tons in 2019, 371.1 million tons in 2020, and 376.1 million tons in 2021. ...
... The current mechanized harvesting rate of potatoes is low, and potato harvesters face problems such as high development of the potato industry has become a key issue in the agricultural field [10]. The current mechanized harvesting rate of potatoes is low, and potato harvesters face problems such as high mechanical damage rates [11], low operational efficiency, high operational costs, and soil loss in the field during mechanized harvesting [7]. As a result, there is no potato harvester that can currently function in all operational environments, under all soil conditions, and with all potato varieties. ...
... Monitor the simulation process to ensure stability and that the calculations meet expectations. (7) Analyzing results: Collect and analyze simulation data, such as particle velocities, positions, temperature, pressure distribution, etc. Utilize EDEM's built-in tools or export data to other software for in-depth analysis. (8) Model validation: Compare the simulation results with experimental data or theoretical predictions to validate the accuracy of the model. ...
The Discrete Element Method (DEM) is an innovative numerical computational approach. This method is employed to study and resolve the motion patterns of particles within discrete systems, contact mechanics properties, mechanisms of separation processes, and the relationships between contact forces and energy. Agricultural machinery involves the interactions between machinery and soil, crops, and other systems. Designing agricultural machinery can be equivalent to solving problems in discrete systems. The DEM has been widely applied in research on agricultural machinery design and mechanized harvesting of crops. It has also provided an important theoretical research approach for the design and selection of operating parameters, as well as the structural optimization of potato harvesting machinery. This review first analyzes and summarizes the current global potato industry situation, planting scale, and yield. Subsequently, it analyzes the challenges facing the development of the potato industry. The results show that breeding is the key to improving potato varieties, harvesting is the main stage where potato damage occurs, and reprocessing is the main process associated with potato waste. Second, an overview of the basic principles of DEM, contact models, and mechanical parameters is provided, along with an introduction to the simulation process using the EDEM software. Third, the application of the DEM to mechanized digging, transportation, collection, and separation of potatoes from the soil is reviewed. The accuracy of constructing potato and soil particle models and the rationality of the contact model selection are found to be the main factors affecting the results of discrete element simulations. Finally, the challenges of using the DEM for research on potato harvesting machinery are presented, and a summary and outlook for the future development of the DEM are provided.
... Weather patterns have been altered as a result of global climate change, resulting in extremes of heat waves, water scarcity, persistent frost and snowfall at high elevations. The influence of climate change on crop yields could be intensified in forthcoming decades for the reason that continuous emission of greenhouse gases will cause rapid enhancement in air temperature leading to augmented evapotranspiration and water shortage severity, soil salinity, insects and disease risks (Tubiello et al. 2002;Daccache et al. 2012;Raymundo et al. 2018). Climate experts predict that the existing ambient CO 2 (412 ppm) will be doubled by the end of the century, which will be accompanied by a 1.5 to 4.8 °C rise in global air temperature. ...
... For the reason that it is projected that more temperature will be raised during the autumn growing season than during the spring growing season under various GCMs at RCP 8.5. It is reported that global potential potato yield is reduced in the range from 18 to 32% (without adaptation strategies) and in the range from 9 to 18% (with adaptation strategies) (da Silva et al. 2024;Raymundo et al. 2018;von Gehren et al. 2023;Zhou et al. 2024). In our study, in all GCMs at RCP 8.5, tuber yield will be reduced during the future scenario due to climate warming situation. ...
... Consequently, tuber yield relies on comparative sink strength and translocation of photoassimilates from the potato plant leaves. Climate warming significantly lessens the net assimilation rate, biomass of tubers and ultimately tuber yield (Daccache et al. 2012;Raymundo et al. 2018). Higher temperatures promote dry matter partitioning into haulm, shoot growth, root growth and reduce potato tuber production by decreasing the tuber size and tuber numbers (Waaswa et al. 2021). ...
Climate change in the form of heat waves, torrential rains and floods is showing impact on the food security in Pakistan. Potato is the main cash crop of the region affected by climate change. However, impact assessment of climate change for the potato-potato cropping system has not been studied yet. Hence, in the present study, we studied the impact of projected climate change and key adaptation options on the potato-potato cropping system using the DSSAT-CSM-SUBSTOR-Potato model. The model was calibrated using 2019 spring and fall season field experiments data, while evaluation was made using spring and fall season data of 2019 and 2020 respectively. After calibration and evaluation, model sensitivity analysis for carbon, temperature, water and nitrogen (CTWN) was performed, and after that, it was applied to determine the impact of climate warming and change in rainfall on spring and fall potato during mid-century. The results revealed that during the baseline period (1980–2020), maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature were increased by 0.7 and 0.8 °C during the spring growing season and by 0.8 and 0.9 °C during the autumn growing season, respectively. Furthermore, it was projected that autumn potato will be more influenced due to climate change than spring potato. Under future projections, temperature change for spring planted potato will be 2.7 to 3.8 °C for Tmin and 2.1 to 3.4 °C for Tmax. However for the autumn seasons, potato increase in maximum temperature will be from 2.4 to 3.6 °C and for minimum temperature the change will be from 2.7 to 4.0 °C. Simulation outcome showed that without adaptation strategies, tuber yield will be reduced from 23 to 29% and from 19 to 36% in spring and fall potato, respectively. While with adopting suitable adaptation strategies such as fertigation, planting date adjustment (earlier planting of spring potato by 15 days and delayed planting of fall by 20 days), higher thermal time requiring cultivars, increase of 12% in plant population and nitrogen quantity, tuber yield can be increased by 9 to 13% during spring and by 10 to 14% during autumn potato during mid-century. Therefore, farmers should adopt suitable adaptation strategies as mentioned to reduce the negative impact of climate change on potato yield.
... Western Europe) and decrease in others (e.g. North America and Eastern Europe) but that overall, production will have declined globally by 2085 [75]. Given that such models do not include impacts of biotic interactions (pests, pathogens and beneficial microbes) or management practices, the impacts of climate change could be even more dramatic. ...
... This emphasises the potential trade-off in disease management practices since these irrigation treatments also resulted in higher blackleg incidence. Once again, local decisions about irrigation practices are predicted to have even more importance as climate change will increase the unpredictability of rainfall [75]. ...
Background
Understanding the interaction between environmental conditions, crop yields, and soil health is crucial for sustainable agriculture in a changing climate. Management practices to limit disease are a balancing act. For example, in potato production, dry conditions favour common scab (Streptomyces spp.) and wet conditions favour blackleg disease (Pectobacterium spp.). The exact mechanisms involved and how these link to changes in the soil microbiome are unclear. Our objectives were to test how irrigation management and bacterial pathogen load in potato seed stocks impact: (i) crop yields; (ii) disease development (blackleg or common scab); and (iii) soil microbial community dynamics.
Methods
We used stocks of seed potatoes with varying natural levels of Pectobacterium (Jelly [high load], Jelly [low load] and Estima [Zero – no Pectobacterium]). Stocks were grown under four irrigation regimes that differed in the timing and level of watering. The soil microbial communities were profiled using amplicon sequencing at 50% plant emergence and at harvest. Generalised linear latent variable models and an annotation-free mathematical framework approach (ensemble quotient analysis) were then used to show the interacting microbes with irrigation regime and Pectobacterium pathogen levels.
Results
Irrigation increased blackleg symptoms in the plots planted with stocks with low and high levels of Pectobacterium (22–34%) but not in the zero stock (2–6%). However, withholding irrigation increased common scab symptoms (2–5%) and reduced crop yields. Irrigation did not impact the composition of the soil microbiome, but planting stock with a high Pectobacterium burden resulted in an increased abundance of Planctomycetota, Anaerolinea and Acidobacteria species within the microbiome. Ensemble quotient analysis highlighted the Anaerolinea taxa were highly associated with high levels of Pectobacterium in the seed stock and blackleg symptoms in the field.
Conclusions
We conclude that planting seed stocks with a high Pectobacterium burden alters the abundance of specific microbial species within the soil microbiome and suggest that managing pathogen load in seed stocks could substantially affect soil communities, affecting crop health and productivity.
BWvw4eepooU5poSUC2MUy8Video Abstract
... Of the 156 countries worldwide that plant potatoes (FAO, 2019), heat stress is reported in various places, including tropical highlands. Lavras in Brazil (Lambert et al., 2006); San Ramoń in Peru (Khan et al., 2015;Benavides et al., 2017;Raymundo et al., 2018;Muñoa et al., 2022); Jalandhar in India (Bhardwaj et al., 2022), Western Australia in Australia (Obiero et al., 2022) are considered heat stress sites for the selection of heat-tolerant potatoes. Some unexpected areas, like Ontario, Canada, have also been reported to experience heat during the potato growing season. ...
... Some of the field sites that reported heat stress on potatoes are San Ramoń, Peru, and Lavras, Brazil. San Ramoń frequently experiences heat stress (Khan et al., 2015;Benavides et al., 2017;Raymundo et al., 2018;Muñoa et al., 2022) with an average day/night temperature of 28/23°C (Benavides et al., 2017) but fluctuating between 16 to 36°C (Muñoa et al., 2022). In Lavras, Brazil, the mean maximum and minimum temperatures are 28.5 and 16.5°C, respectively (Lambert et al., 2006). ...
In recent years, heat stress has affected potato production more frequently, resulting in lower marketable yields and reduced tuber quality. In order to develop heat-tolerant potatoes, it is necessary to select under heat-stress conditions and consider traits affected by heat stress. The Texas A&M Potato Breeding Program has selected potatoes under high-temperature stress for several decades. Ten potato cultivars, representing heat tolerant and sensitive clones based on past performance in Texas, were included in field trials for three years at the two main locations used by the Texas Breeding Program (Dalhart and Springlake, TX) to assess if the Texas field locations are suitable for heat tolerance screening. Both locations were confirmed as appropriate for heat stress screening. However, Springlake was a more stressful location since it had significantly lower yields of marketable tubers and increased percentages of tuber defects. Planting time did not have a significant effect at the most stressful location. The same ten potato clones were included in greenhouse experiments with contrasting temperatures (normal versus heat stress). There was confirmation that heat stress conditions resulted in significantly lower marketable yields, specific gravity, dormancy, and significantly higher percentages of tuber defects; however, significant differences existed between potato clones. Under heat stress conditions, Russet Burbank had a high percent of tubers with external defects, whereas Atlantic showed the highest percentage of internal defects (mainly internal heat necrosis). Vanguard Russet produced the highest marketable yield while maintaining a low percentage of external and internal defects. Russet Burbank and Atlantic were heat-sensitive controls for external and internal tuber defects, respectively. In contrast, Vanguard Russet can be used as a reliable heat-tolerant control. Including appropriate controls in heat stress studies will help identify clones with heat tolerance.
... The Cropping System Model (CSM)-SUBSTOR-Potato (Griffin et al., 1993;Singh et al., 1998) of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT; Hoogenboom et al., 2019a;Jones et al., 2003), is one of the most widely used crop models for simulating potato production systems worldwide. The model has been successfully applied to perform yield gap analysis, to explore water and N management scenarios and to assess the impact of climate variability and change on a range of different potato cropping systems (Arora et al., 2013;Bender and Sentelhas, 2020;Fleisher et al., 2021;Grados et al., 2020;Prasad et al., 2015;Raymundo et al., 2018;Tooley et al., 2021;Wang et al., 2023;Woli et al., 2016;Woli and Hoogenboom, 2018). ...
... The Simulation of Underground Bulking Storage Organs (SUBSTOR) model was developed for aroids (taro and tanier) and potato (Griffin et al., 1993;Singh et al., 1998). Recently, the model received changes to better account for responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 and high temperature under a changing climate (Raymundo et al., 2018). SUBSTOR-Potato is one of the crop modules in CSM framework of the DSSAT (Hoogenboom et al., 2019a;Jones et al., 2003), currently in its version 4.8.2 (Hoogenboom et al., 2023) which is the version we used in this study. ...
Optimizing irrigation and nitrogen (N) fertilizer management in irrigated potato crops grown on sandy soils in subtropical regions such as in northeastern Florida, USA is essential to sustain a high yield and to minimize leaching. N applications in this region typically occur at approximately 25-30 days prior to planting (Npre), at emergence (Neme), and at tuber initiation (Nti). However, recent studies suggest that applying N near planting (Npl) enhances fertilizer N use efficiency (FNUE). We combined experimentation with modeling to assess irrigation and N management options for potato in northeastern Florida. We first aimed to evaluate the DSSAT/ CSM-SUBSTOR-Potato model using two-year irrigated field experiments conducted on sandy soils with variable N rates and application timings. CSM-SUBSTOR-Potato accurately simulated aboveground plus tuber dry weight [Relative root mean squared error (RRMSE) = 26.4%, Willmott's index (d) = 0.98] and N accumulation (RRMSE = 28.6%, d = 0.97). Soil moisture and mineral N were captured well overall, but they were often underestimated due to a water table influence that is currently not considered in DSSAT. Subsequently, CSM-SUBSTOR-Potato was applied to simulate tuber yield, N leaching, and FNUE under scenarios of irrigation scheduling and N-fertilizer application (rate/timing) strategies, focusing on Npre versus Npl aiming to improve resource use efficiency. The simulations indicated that a target of 60% and 70% of the available soil water can be safely used as an irrigation strategy to achieve a high yield, while reducing irrigation water applied and N leached to the environment. Overall Npl increased crop N uptake by 10%, tuber yield by 7%, reduced N leached by 13%, and consequently increasing FNUE by 9%, compared to Npre across the irrigation treatments. Thus, Npl should be preferred in sandy soils and climate-risky subtropical environments, along with Neme and Nti as key timings to synchronize N supply with potato growth.
... Irrigation practices must be tailored to increase water use efficiency and account for the increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing seasons, depending on region-specific and management conditions (Iglesias and Garrote, 2015;Zhao et al., 2015). Moreover, increased fertilization rates may be required to support plant growth and productivity under elevated [CO 2 ], avoiding the dilution effect of crop tissue (i.e., preserving the quality of harvested products) (Asseng et al., 2014(Asseng et al., , 2019Raymundo et al., 2018;Zhao et al., 2022a). ...
... There is limited evidence of the impact of future climatic conditions on the yield of spring barley and faba bean (Knox et al., 2016). Crops with high heat and drought stress sensitivity might experience high yield variability (e.g., faba bean, potato, and spring barley; Falconnier et al., 2019;Raymundo et al., 2018;Rezaei et al., 2022) or even crop failure (Trnka et al., 2014). Similarly, while we used 5 GCM-RCM models, the choice and variability of particular GCM-RCM models (Knutti and Sedláček, 2012) and whether it is used in isolation or ensemble can impact the climate prediction and, thus, the yield estimates (Challinor et al., 2009;Knox et al., 2016;Woldemeskel et al., 2014). ...
Climate change poses a significant threat to agriculture, highlighting the need for adaptation strategies to reduce its impacts. Agronomic adaptation strategies, such as changes in planting dates, fertilization, and irrigation, might sustain crop yield. However, their impact on soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is unknown under future climate scenarios. Using the LandscapeDNDC model, we assessed the effect of agronomic adaptation strategies (early sowing, increased fertilization dose, and increased irrigation amount) on soil GHG emission, yield, and yield-scaled GHG emission. A diversified crop rotation (potato – winter wheat – spring barley – faba bean) of a long-term experiment in Denmark was used for model validation. The adaptation practices to climate change were implemented for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 4.5 and 8.5) and five coupled global circulation and regional climate models. The adaptation scenarios were contrasted against a baseline scenario under current management practices. Soil-related variables showed better model fit (refined index of agreement ≥ 0.38) and lower errors (mean absolute error ≤ 8.18) than crop-based outputs for model validation. A total yield of ∼29 (± 3) t DW ha−1, and soil GHG emission of ∼3.02 (± 1.39) t CO2e ha−1 (RCP8.5) were obtained for the crop rotation system under the baseline for 2071–2100. Early sowing and its combination with increased fertilization decreased the yield compared to the baseline by 6.1 and 4.8 %, respectively (RCP8.5). Conversely, early sowing with increased irrigation, and early sowing with increased fertilization and irrigation, produced higher yields by 2.3 and 4.0 %, respectively (RCP8.5). All the agronomic adaptation strategies increased soil GHG emissions (ranging from 4.1 to 17.8 %) as well as yield-scaled GHG emissions (varying from 3.0 to 12.9 %) (RCP8.5). The highest soil GHG emission was simulated for early sowing in combination with increased fertilization and irrigation. Our study indicates that soil GHG emission will increase in the coming decades and that the agronomic adaptation strategies needed to sustain food production may further exacerbate this emission.
... La superficie cosechada alcanza las 330,790 hectáreas de cultivos y la producción del tubérculo se concentra en un 90% en sierra y aproximadamente el 60% de estas Estrés hídrico en el crecimiento y rendimiento de cultivares comerciales de papa (Solanum tuberosum L.) en la región centro del Perú áreas son secanos (MIDAGRI, 2023). En la actualidad, uno de los grandes problemas que viene afectando al cultivo de papa es el cambio climático que ha generado cambios de temperatura, exceso o escasez de agua y la aparición de diversas plagas y enfermedades que afectan su producción en las diferentes regiones (Raymundo et al., 2018). Es así que el área sembrada de papa, entre julio de 2022 y febrero de 2023, alcanzó las 259,300 hectáreas, equivalente a una reducción de 11.5%, en relación al promedio de las últimas cinco campañas agrícolas (MIDAGRI, 2023). ...
... El riego en el cultivo de papa es fundamental porque participa en varios procesos fisiológicos y metabólicos, como la fotosíntesis, absorción y transporte de nutrientes y crecimiento de tejidos que son esenciales para la producción y calidad de tubérculos (Nasir & Toth, 2022). A pesar de su amplia distribución, la papa cultivada es sensible a la sequía y su rendimiento es afectado por el cambio climático y por la escasa variabilidad de su actual base genética (Raymundo et al., 2018). Entre los factores importantes, la escasez de agua dulce para riego ocasiona reducción de los rendimientos de papa (Handayani et al., 2019). ...
Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is a crop of great importance worldwide due to its high nutritional value and its adaptability to different climatic conditions. In Peru, it is one of the main crops in terms of production and consumption, with Junín being one of the departments with the highest production. The aim of this research was to evaluate the effect of water stress on the growth and yield of commercial potato cultivars. Four irrigation frequencies (field capacity, every 7, 14 and 21 days) and five commercial potato cultivars (Canchán, Yungay, Wankita, Serranita and Shulay) were evaluated, distributed in a completely randomized design with a 5x4 factorial arrangement, with five replications. It was installed under greenhouse conditions and seven variables (plant emergence, plant height, number of stems, number and weight of tubers, transpiration rate and dry matter) were evaluated. The results showed statistical differences in all the variables evaluated. It was found that the Canchán cultivar with irrigation frequency every 21 days was more tolerant to drought with an average rate of 0.69 ml, the maximum permissible irrigation limit in greenhouse is every 14 days. The highest number of tubers was observed in the Wankita cultivar with 29.8 tubers under a drought stress of 14 days. The highest tuber weight was obtained with the Yungay cultivar at field capacity with 0.438 kg per plant. It is concluded that water stress influences potato growth and production.
... India has been identified to be holding a significant position globally in the cultivation of many commercial crops like sugarcane, potato, sesame, linseed, tea, coffee, etc. Among these, potato is an important dietary crop that offers key vitamins and plays a crucial role in food security globally (Raymundo et al., 2018;Mishra et.al, 2024). It is the most consumed non-cereal crop in the world (Shah et al., 2023) and can contribute significantly towards attaining the goal of zero hunger (Adekanmbi et al., 2023). ...
This study assesses the influence of climate and technological changes on the farming of potato, sugarcane, linseed, and sesame in Himachal Pradesh (HP) using secondary data from 1970 to 2019. The coefficients of climatic factors with these crops are estimated using log-linear regression equations for individual crops. It also predicts potato, sugarcane, linseed, and sesame yield, production, and cropped areas. It was noticed that the yield and production of potato, sugarcane, and linseed improved with the use of new technologies. Nevertheless, the production and yield of the crops decline because of increasing temperature and precipitation. It shows that cash crop farming is not increasing with the proportion of inputs. The study recommended using new technology based on the findings to strengthen cash crop sustainability in the state.
... According to the simulations for future conditions in the studied region, temperature will remain within the appropriate range for crop development, but a higher amount of precipitation is expected (Figure 2). These results are consistent with those found by Raymundo et al. (2018), who stated that increases in yield are expected in the coming decades for the mountainous areas of the tropical regions. Although these results contrast with the results found by other authors, who affirm that declines in yields due to climate change are expected (Adavi et al. 2018;Kumar et al. 2015;Sparks et al. 2014;Daccache et al. 2012). ...
Agricultural sustainability assessments have gained high importance during the last decades. Different tools have been developed for these assessments, such as the Sustainability assessment methodology oriented to soil‐associated agricultural experiments (SMAES). SMAES quantifies the current sustainability of the different treatments evaluated in experiments associated with the soil. However, efforts aimed at maintaining or increasing crop systems sustainability must be planned and measured in the short, medium, and long term. In this work, crop modelling parameters are added to SMAES to estimate future sustainability. The first is the construction of climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5, model CCSM4, periods 2050–2100) to establish the conditions of change in the future. Second, crop yield is modelled with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) using the aforementioned climate scenarios. Third, yield modelling results and SMAES sustainability indexes (IS) from climate scenarios are integrated. As a case study, the current sustainability (IS‐C) of five potato fertilization split treatments was initially estimated: (i) Commercial control (Control), (ii) Fertilization recommended by Agrosavia (As), (iii) Monthly split fertilization recommended by Agrosavia (AsSplit), (iv) AsSplit decreasing the amount of fertilizer by 25% (AsSp25), and (v) AsSplit decreasing the amount of fertilizer by 50% (AsSp50). AsSp50 generated the highest current and future sustainability with IS‐C = 0.90, IS‐45, and IS‐85 = 0.88. Results suggest that SMAES allows sustainability assessments under current and future scenarios, leveraging modelling tools like DSSAT and LCA. This study demonstrated its feasibility for scenario‐based evaluations, highlighting its potential to support sustainable agricultural practices.
... Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), the third most consumed [1,2] and fourth most cultivated crop worldwide [3][4][5], is crucial for future global food security [6,7]. China is the internal use efficiency (IE), and reciprocal IE (RIE). ...
Potatoes (Solanum tuberosum) are the most important noncereal crop in the world. Increasing potato production is critical for future global food security. China is the world’s largest potato producer, and potato productivity is constrained by water scarcity and poor fertilizer use efficiency (NUEF). Recently, autumn film mulched ridge microfurrow rainwater harvesting (ARF) tillage has been successfully applied in potato production in dryland farming in Northwest China. However, the effects of ARF on the use efficiency (NUEF) of applied nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) nutrients in potatoes have not been systematically studied. A 3-year, consecutive field trial with four treatments, including moldboard planting without fertilizer application (control, CK), spring and autumn film mulched ridge microfurrow rainwater harvesting planting (SRF and ARF), and standard film mulched ridge-furrow planting (FRF), was conducted during 2018–2020. ARF greatly increased the water levels in the 0–200 cm soil profile at potato harvest compared to SRF, FRF, and CK. ARF and SRF significantly increased the levels of soil organic carbon (SOC), total and available NPK (TN, TP, TK and AN, AP, AK) compared to FRF and CK, with ARF being the most efficient at increasing the levels of the AN, AP, and AK. ARF significantly improved the soil water and nutrient activity and contributed the most to potato tuber and biomass yield and hence the NUEF. Under ARF, significant and positive associations were observed between the soil fertility traits, soil water storage (SWS), potato tuber yield, biomass yield, and NUEF. Soil fertility traits and the SWS were positively correlated with potato tuber and biomass yield. The SWS, potato tuber, and biomass yield positively correlated with the partial factor productivity (PFP) and the recovery efficiency (RE) of the applied NPK nutrients. Increased nutrient levels and their combination increased the NUEF and NUEF’s components. The TN and AN contributed more significantly to the PEP and agronomic efficiency (AE) of the applied NPK nutrients; the TP was significantly positively correlated with the AE (AEN, AEP, and AEK), while the AP was correlated with PEP (PFPN, PFPP, and PFPK) and RE (REN, REP, and REK); the TK was significantly positively correlated with the PFP and RE of the applied PK nutrients, while the AK was significantly positively correlated with the PEP, AE, and RE of the applied K nutrients. Therefore, ARF results in a synchronous increase in yield and NUEF and is the most efficient planting system for potato production in dryland farming.
... However, the short-and longterm outcomes reported in these studies have revealed a variety of findings. For example, Raymundo et al. (2018) reported a possible decline in potato yields due to climate change, whereas Rangaswamy et al. (2021) offered a more optimistic outlook, suggesting that increased carbon dioxide levels could increase tomato yields, albeit with complexities related to temperature fluctuations. Bhandari, Neupane, and Adhikari (2021) studied the impact of climate change on tomato production and the need for climate adaptation plans as Nepali tomato production is vulnerable to climate variability. ...
Potatoes, tomatoes, and chili peppers are commonly used in our daily diets as primary vegetable food items. However, producing nutritious, fresh, and sustainable vegetables in the context of climate change is a major challenge for both developed and developing countries. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on horticultural crop production, including potatoes, tomatoes, and chili peppers in Turkiye from 1990 to 2020. Using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) estimation technique, we demonstrate that climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation changes benefit potato yields in both the long and short term. Conversely, CO2 emissions have a positive impact on potato yields in the long term, but a negative impact in the short term. Furthermore, the results show that temperature fluctuations have detrimental effects on tomato production in the short and long term. On the other hand, increased rainfall and CO2 emissions positively influence tomato yields over the long term. Meanwhile, temperature changes and CO2 emissions boost short‐ and long‐term yields. Besides, the cultivated area and fertilizer use contribute significantly to the production of potatoes, tomatoes, and chilies in the short and long term. Our study suggests that implementing appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures can effectively address the challenges of climate change and promote the sustainable production of vegetables.
... All over the world, potatoes are grown under a wide range of altitude, latitude, and climatic conditions; studies have suggested that no other food crop can match the potato's yield of food energy and food value per unit area [8]. For instance, potatoes, when compared to other vegetable crops, have one of the highest input requirements for fertilizer. ...
In this research, a novel explainable multi-level ensemble learning framework has been developed to accurately monitor the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission drivers of the Maritime potato crop system i.e., Carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and water vapour (H2O). For this purpose, alongside the GHG emission drivers, the hydro-meteorological and soil properties information was collected from three Canadian sites, two in Prince Edward Island (PEI) and one in New Brunswick. This advanced framework includes a transparent multi-level pre-processing module and a Runge-Kutta optimizer (RUN), integrated with an eXplainable gradient-boosted decision Tree (GBDT) machine learning (ML) technique. The preprocessing scheme meticulously selects the most effective input combinations from the hydro-meteorological and soil properties datasets using hybridization of Boruta-GBDT for feature selection, Best Subset Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (BSLR), and Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS). The optimal combinations were then analyzed using the GBDT-RUN and compared against two algorithms: LightGBM coupled with RUN optimizer (LightGBM-RUN) and classical GBDT. The explainability of the primary model was enhanced using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Model validation employed various metrics, such as the correlation coefficient (R), squared deviation (SquD), and a range of sophisticated statistical graphics. Results demonstrated that the GBDT-RUN model exhibited superior performance in monitoring GHG emissions (CO2|R=0.8431, SquD=17.1759, WASPAS=1.88E-07; N2O|R=0.8431, SquD=17.1759, WASPAS=1.88E-07; H2O| R=0.8431, SquD=17.1759, WASPAS=1.88E-07), outperforming both LightGBM-RUN and classical GBDT. Furthermore, the explainability analysis identified dew point and soil temperature as the most influential factors in the CO2, N2O, and H2O emissions scenarios.
... Drought-sensitive crops with shallow root systems such as potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.) are particularly affected in this context. Potato is considered the world's third most important food crop in terms of yield and consumption [2,3] with drought-induced losses in yield potential by more than 30% predicted until 2069 [4,5]. Among agronomic measures to counteract these limitations, the application of plant growth-promoting microorganisms (PGPMs) is discussed as a strategy to improve nutrient acquisition and biotic/abiotic stress resilience in crops [6]. ...
Due to shallow root systems, potato is a particularly drought-sensitive crop. To counteract these limitations, the application of plant growth-promoting microorganisms (PGPMs) is discussed as a strategy to improve nutrient acquisition and biotic and abiotic stress resilience. However, initial root colonization by PGPMs, in particular, can be affected by stress factors that negatively impact root growth and activity or the survival of PGPMs in the rhizosphere. In this study, perspectives for the use of commercial silicate-based soil conditioners (SCs) supposed to improve soil water retention were investigated. The SC products were based on combinations with lignocellulose polysaccharides (Sanoplant® = SP) or polyacrylate (Geohumus® = GH). It was hypothesized that SC applications would support beneficial plant–inoculant interactions (arbuscular mycorrhiza, AM: Rhizophagus irregularis MUCL41833, and Pseudomonas brassicacearum 3Re2-7) on a silty loam soil–sand mixture under water-deficit conditions (6–12 weeks at 15–20% substrate water-holding capacity, WHC). Although no significant SC effects on WHC and total plant biomass were detectable, the SC-inoculant combinations increased the proportion of leaf biomass not affected by drought stress symptoms (chlorosis, necrosis) by 66% (SP) and 91% (GH). Accordingly, osmotic adjustment (proline, glycine betaine accumulation) and ROS detoxification (ascorbate peroxidase, total antioxidants) were increased. This was associated with elevated levels of phytohormones involved in stress adaptations (abscisic, jasmonic, salicylic acids, IAA) and reduced ROS (H2O2) accumulation in the leaf tissue. In contrast to GH, the SP treatments additionally stimulated AM root colonization. Finally, the SP-inoculant combination significantly increased tuber biomass (82%) under well-watered conditions, and a similar trend was observed under drought stress, reaching 81% of the well-watered control. The P status was sufficient for all treatments, and no treatment differences were observed for stress-protective nutrients, such as Zn, Mn, or Si. By contrast, GH treatments had negative effects on tuber biomass, associated with excess accumulation of Mn and Fe in the leaf tissue close to toxicity levels. The findings suggest that inoculation with the PGPMs in combination with SC products (SP) can promote physiological stress adaptations and AM colonization to improve potato tuber yield, independent of effects on soil water retention. However, this does not apply to SC products in general.
... We attribute this yield decrease to climate change to a certain degree, because the yield of many potato genotypes is quite sensitive to elevated temperatures, as potatoes originate from the Andes in South America, i.e., from a region with relatively cool temperatures. In fact, temperatures above 17 • C lead to a diminishment of potato tuberization, and thus global warming has been predicted to lead to decreased potato yields on a global scale in general [54,55]. In the region, where our study sites are located, mean annual temperatures increased from 8.0 • C in the year 1965 to 10.8 • C in the year 2015. ...
The potato is the most important non-cereal food crop, and thus improving potato growth and yield is the focus of agricultural researchers and practitioners worldwide. Several studies reported beneficial effects of silicon (Si) fertilization on potato performance, although plant species from the family Solanaceae are generally considered to be non-Si-accumulating. We used results from two field experiments in the temperate zone to gain insight into silica accumulation in potato plants, as well as corresponding long-term potato yield performance. We found relatively low Si contents in potato leaves and roots (up to 0.08% and 0.3% in the dry mass, respectively) and negligible Si contents in potato tuber skin and tuber flesh for plants grown in soils with different concentrations of plant-available Si (field experiment 1). Moreover, potato yield was not correlated to plant-available Si concentrations in soils in the long term (1965–2015, field experiment 2). Based on our results, we ascribe the beneficial effects of Si fertilization on potato growth and yield performance reported in previous studies mainly to antifungal/osmotic effects of foliar-applied Si fertilizers and to changes in physicochemical soil properties (e.g., enhanced phosphorus availability and water-holding capacity) caused by soil-applied Si fertilizers.
... Potato is an imperative food crop possessing high nutritional value (Caliskan et al. 2010;Hong et al. 2017), and an ever-increasing population makes potato more crucial to fight hunger and poverty (Caliskan et al. 2010;FAO 2011;Raymundo et al. 2018). However, potato is challenged by biotic and abiotic stress tolerances (Chacon-Cerdas et al. 2020;Handayani and Watanabe 2020), and the genetic makeup of potato makes its conventional breeding challenging, calling for the need of genome editing (Andersson et al. 2018). ...
Pathogen infections that affect potato yield cause severe economic losses every year. Many studies point to the role of apoplastic (cell wall) invertase (CWIN) enzyme in plant defence mechanisms. Apoplastic invertase inhibitor (INVINH1) post-translationally regulates the CWIN enzyme activity. Nevertheless, the role of INVINH1 needs to be elucidated for several effects in plant transformation parameters and its gene expression which we sought to explore using CRISPR/Cas9 technology. In this study, we sequenced the first exon of INVINH1 gene in cv. Desiree and Solanum chacoense M6. We identified in the first exon two alleles for StINVINH1 gene in cv. Desiree and one allele for ScINVINH1 gene in S. chacoense M6. We designed two single-guided RNAs (sgRNAs) to target INVINH1 gene from diploid S. chacoense M6 and tetraploid S. tuberosum cv. Desiree using CRISPR/Cas9-based technology. In our earlier study, we have already optimised the transformation protocol for M6 and cv. Desiree using Agrobacterium strains, based on which Agrobacterium strain AGL1 was chosen for the CRISPR/Cas9 experiment. Our experimentation showed that heat stress at 37 °C could increase the mutagenesis capability and CRISPR/Cas9 targeting affected the plant transformation parameters. It was found from the knockout experiment that the indels were present in the calli and the candidate regenerated plants showed reduced gene expression level conducted via RT-qPCR. Our study demonstrated that INVINH1 targeting affected the calli induction and regeneration rates, was effective under heat stress and reduced its gene expression level. More studies are required to comprehend the function of the INVINH1 enzyme in potato stress response and defence mechanism.
... Research on the mechanism of drought damage in potatoes during the tuber expansion period and seeking solutions is an important scientific issue that is of great significance for drought-resistant cultivation of potatoes in China. Drought will lead to soil water imbalance, excessive water loss in plants, causing stomatal closure and reduced photosynthesis, resulting in damage to leaf photosynthetic organs, causing photosynthetic damage, and at the same time, leading to excessive generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in the plant body, exacerbating the degree of lipid peroxidation of cell membranes, and inhibiting growth and development of crops [4][5][6]. ...
In this paper, the transcriptome sequencing results were modeled and analyzed by bioinformatics statistical methods to check the sequencing quality. RNA-seq histology was used to analyze and study gene expression levels, including differential expression of genes among samples and GO functional enrichment. The transcriptome analysis could conclude that there were 1,362 differential genes among CT vs. DT groups in the expansion stage tubers, 4,670 differential genes among DWT vs. DT groups, 332 differential genes among DWT vs. CT, and 85 overlapping differential genes among DT vs CT, DWT vs DT and DWT vs CT groups, and the transcriptome data were reliable. By Go functional enrichment analysis, DT vs. CT was mostly enriched to biological processes, and DWT vs. CT vs DWT vs DT was involved in biological processes, cellular components, and molecular functions. This paper examines the molecular mechanism of potato tuber expansion that responds to drought stress and rehydration treatment through histology and bioinformatics techniques.
... No obstante, existen factores como el cambio climático, las plagas y enfermedades que representan un desafío significativo para la producción de papa, con proyecciones que indican reducciones en los rendimientos debido al aumento de temperaturas y la variabilidad climática (Raymundo et al., 2017;Díaz-García et al., 2023). ...
La papa es un alimento básico crucial con una producción mundial anual que asciende a 374 millones de toneladas. A pesar de su importancia, la producción de papa enfrenta severos desafíos debido al tizón tardío, causado por Phytophthora infestans, enfermedad cosmopolita con potencial devastador. Además, la resistencia del patógeno a fungicidas complica aún más su manejo, haciendo insostenible la dependencia en estos químicos, tanto económicamente como ambientalmente. El objetivo principal de la revisión es explorar cómo la diversidad genética de los parientes silvestres de la papa (Solanum spp.), puede ser utilizada para mejorar la resistencia en variedades cultivadas, ofreciendo alternativas sostenibles al uso convencional de fungicidas. Se enfatiza la necesidad de valorar y conservar estas especies no solo por su potencial agronómico, sino también por su contribución a la biodiversidad y la sostenibilidad agrícola. Métodos de evaluación de resistencia, desde pruebas in vitro hasta evaluaciones a campo, son discutidos, subrayando sus roles en el desarrollo de cultivares resistentes. Es importante realizar un trabajo de revalorización y conservación de los parientes silvestres de la papa como una medida crucial para combatir patógenos y asegurar la sostenibilidad de este cultivo de crucial importancia.
... We attribute this yield decrease to climate change to a certain degree, because yield of many potato genotypes is quite sensitive to elevated temperatures as potatoes originate from the Andes in South America, i.e., from a region with relatively cool temperatures. In fact, temperatures above 17°C lead to a diminishment of potato tuberization, and thus global warming has been predicted to lead to decreased potato yields on a global scale in general [53,54]. In the region, where our study sites are located, mean annual temperatures increased from 8.0°C in the year 1965 to 10.8°C in the year 2015. ...
The potato is the most important non-cereal food crop, and thus improving potato growth and yield is in the focus of agricultural researchers and practitioners worldwide. Several studies reported beneficial effects of silicon (Si) fertilization on potato performance, although plant species from the family Solanaceae are generally considered as non-Si-accumulating. We used results from two field experiments in the temperate zone to gain insight into silica accumulation in potato plants as well as corresponding long-term potato yield performance. We found relatively low Si contents in potato leaves and roots (up to 0.08% and 0.3% in the dry mass, respectively) and negligible Si contents in potato tuber skin and tuber flesh for plants grown in soils with different concentrations of plant available Si (field experiment 1). Moreover, potato yield was not correlated to plant available Si concentrations in soils in the long-term (1965-2015, field experiment 2). Based on our results we ascribe the beneficial effects of Si fertilization on potato growth and yield performance reported in previous studies mainly to antifungal/osmotic effects of foliar-applied Si fertilizers and to changes in physicochemical soil properties (e.g., enhanced phosphorus availability and water holding capacity) caused by soil-applied Si fertilizers.
... The 11th World Potato Congress (in 2022, Ireland) through The Declaration of Dublin placed a great emphasis on feeding an expanded population nutritiously and sustainably, while minimizing environmental footprint, with a critical challenge in how to produce more food with the same or fewer resources. Therefore, the current and upcoming contextual change, especially considering climate change (Raymundo et al., 2018;Handayani et al., 2019;Spinoni et al., 2019;Jennings et al., 2020;Li & Zhang, 2020;Alahacoon & Edirisinghe, 2022;Salan et al., 2022;Adekanmbi et al., 2023), encourages a review of potato resilience from a new lense (George et al., 2017;Zhu et al., 2021;Lynn, 2022;Zhao et al., 2022;von Gehren et al., 2023). In terms of consumption, the nations of Eastern Europe lead the world when it comes to average per capita, so like in Romania, potato is now the "second bread", being considered as a strategical food (Sterie et al., 2022;Stefan et al., 2023;Zapucioiu et al., 2023). ...
In line with the priorities of the European Green Deal, in particular the climate adaptation strategy and the EU's climate change mitigation ambition for the years 2030 and 2050, assessing potato resilience in a changing climate to face both natural and induced hazards by humans, requires planning, management and extension of researches. Thus, a long-term multiannual climate synthesis (over 25 years) was carried out, in order to evaluate temporal potato resilience in areas with known favorability for potato cultivation in Romania (Brasov, Covasna, Harghita, Suceava, Dolj). Interlinking synthesis results supports attenuation and adaptation to identified emerging threats. The trend during the potato vegetation period (April-October) was highlighted and the hydro-thermal coefficient was calculated. In all traditional areas of potato cultivation, a constant trend of increasing air temperature and decreasing precipitation during the summer has been observed, especially in the flowering-maturing phenophase, when the plants achieve maximum water consumption, with a very important role in the process of intense accumulation of production.
... Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), a prevalent vegetable crop in Europe, thrives in optimal soil and climate conditions (Goffart et al., 2022). However, recent data indicate a substantial decline in potato yields attributed to climate changes and the impact of various pathogens, including bacteria and fungi (Hemkemeyer et al., 2024;Raymundo et al., 2017;Shi et al., 2023). ...
The investigation aimed to assess three methods for inducing resistance in Solanum tuberosum L. (potato) plants against Soft Rot Pectobacteriaceae (SRP) bacteria. The approaches involved the incorporation of elicitors into the in vitro nutrient medium during plant cultivation, pre-planting of seeds soaked in water-containing elicitors, and irradiating in vitro cultivated potato plants with 21 kJ/m ² of ultraviolet C light (UVC). The research validated the authors’ hypothesis, that the use of specific elicitors and UV-C light could induce resistance in potato plants against SRP bacteria, identifying the most effective elicitation technique for potato plants under experimental conditions. Two elicitors, specifically 50 μM salicylic acid and 250 μg/mL proline, were determined to be the most potent under experimental conditions. Supplementation of the Murashige and Skoog medium (MS) with 50 μM salicylic acid resulted in 21% of infected plants exhibiting no symptoms of infection on the 14th-day post-inoculation, and all plants treated with 10, 30, 35, 40, 45, or 50 μM of salicylic acid displayed a diminishing rate of infection progression. Plants growing with 25 µM SA were visually characterized by faster growth rates and higher vegetative mass relative to both control and test variants. Similarly, the incorporation of 250 μg/mL proline into the MS medium caused a response with 37.5% of plants showing no disease symptoms on the 14th day post-inoculation.
... Among numerous economic sectors, agriculture is the most susceptible to such changes, and over the last 30 years, a number of studies have been conducted to analyze the potential effect of these climate shifts on agricultural yield and production (Adams et al., 1990;Attavanich & McCarl, 2014;Mendelsohn et al., 1994;Miao et al., 2016;Schlenker & Roberts, 2009). Investigations have shown that the variability in temperature, precipitation, and their relationship has affected crop yield, while the impact of climate change is likely to be variable based on geological position, crop type, farmer adoption, and specific scenario (Attavanich et al., 2013;Cammarano et al., 2019;Lobell et al., 2011;Raymundo et al., 2018;Zhao et al., 2017). ...
The sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) holds global significance for sugar and bioenergy production, contributing to the gross domestic product of Pakistan and generating employment. However, environmental degradation resulting from global warming, climate change, and high greenhouse gas emissions pose a critical threat to the sugarcane as well as the sugarcane industry worldwide. Developing countries, like Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh are likely to be more affected because of poor adaptability and forecasting systems, high vulnerability to disasters/extreme events, and insufficient mitigation strategies. Sugarcane production is affected by shifts in climatic conditions, such as temperature, rainfall, and CO2 level, and will continue to be affected by the onset of such events, which are directly linked to geographical areas and the capacity to adapt to such changes. This paper gives a brief description of the challenges and behavior of sugarcane crops to climate change, and the future trend of climate change with respect to sugarcane production to better quantify, comprehend, and counteract the potential negative impact by enhancing the sugarcane production on a sustainable and economically viable basis.
... Climate change and reduction of natural resources have strongly affected the world's food security. Meanwhile, the world's population is projected to grow to 9.7 billion inhabitants by 2050 [6] challenge is agricultural strategies to ensure food security is coping with negative impacts of climate change and variability [42]. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global warming will increase by about 1.5 to 4 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, compared to the base period (1850-1900), and will continue to rise after 2100 [24,32]. ...
One of the main challenges of today’s agriculture to ensure food security is developing strategies to deal with potential negative impacts of adaptation to climate variability. This study was conducted to determine climatic and management factors influencing wheat yield variability throughout a temperate region in Northeastern Iran in the period of 1980–2010. The growth stages and yield of wheat crop were simulated via DSSAT model, using AgMERRA gridded weather dataset. Also, the effect of climatic variables on yield was identified using Panel Data Regression (PDA). According to the results, 63% of the changes in irrigated wheat yield are explained by climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) and 37% by management factors. PDA revealed that among the climatic variables, the number of days with temperatures above 30 °C during the growing season, mean temperature, as well as amount and frequency of precipitation have a significant effect on irrigated wheat yield (p ≤ 0.05). The management practices, including provision of inputs such as chemical fertilizers, modified seeds, tillage machinery and equipment, information transfer and the penetration of knowledge in the field, would increase yields by 5 kg on average per year in study region. In general, employing effective management methods, in particular selecting the appropriate planting date that could result in better adaptation of the phenological stages of wheat to climatic conditions, thus improving the wheat yield. The results of this research suggest that use of valid AgMERRA meteorological dataset as input for DSSAT crop model could produce reliable simulations which in turn could be employed by food policy and decision makers, farmers, and managers in a temperate region.
... Our survey shows that most potato growers are aware of climate change and its impacts. Research indicates that without adaptation, potato yields may decline substantially [71], but implementing adaptation strategies could increase global potato yields by 9 to 20% [72]. However, potato growers' willingness to implement adaptation measures varies, depending on factors such as awareness of effective methods, personal responsibility, and perceived adaptation costs [70]. ...
Among climate-change related effects, drought, heat, and waterlogging are the most important adversely affecting the production of potatoes in Europe. As climate change progresses, agricultural practices must adapt to maintain potato yields. This study is based on a European-wide survey. It presents potato growers’ perception of climate change, its impact, and possible adaptation strategies, focusing on the results from Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Potato growers strongly agreed that climate change had affected their potato production in the last ten years, as indicated by 98% of German and more than 90% of Swiss and Austrian respondents. Drought caused the most severe impact, and to varying extents damage was caused by heat and the occurrence of pests and pathogens. The most preferred adaptation measure was the planting of adapted varieties. In line with the comparably low access to at least partial irrigation that Austrian potato growers reported, Austria appeared to be the country most affected by drought. Other more pronounced challenges were late spring frost, flash floods, and soil erosion. The study highlights and discusses specific differences between the countries, as well as between conventional and organic potato production based on the Austrian responses. The results underline that to successfully develop effective climate change mitigation strategies, country-specific and local challenges and needs should be considered.
... It was introduced to India in the early 17th century and has since become a commercial crop throughout the country. In India, guava is mainly grown in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra, with a total cultivated area of 3.08 lakh hectares, an annual production of 4582 thousand MT (NHB 2020-21), and productivity 23.7 metric tonnes per ha, whereas in Madhya Pradesh, the area, production, and productivity of guava is 41.69 thousand ha, 776.75 MT and 19.58 MT/ha, respectively" [1][2][3][4][5]. ...
The most substantial tropical and subtropical fruit crop in India is the guava (Psidium guajava L.), which is a member of the Myrtaceous family. It is indigenous to Tropical America, spanning from Mexico to Peru, and through time, many nations have turned to it as a commercially successful fruit crop. Nutrients and PGR play a crucial role in fruit growth and yield attributes their deficiency can significantly impact the yield, productivity, and quality of fruits. Therefore, keeping these points in view, the present investigationThe study was conducted on a 10-year-old guava plant orchard grown in a (3*3) high density plantation at the Fruit Research Station, Imaliya, Department of Horticulture, Jawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwavidyalaya (J.N.K.V.V.), Jabalpur (M.P.) during mrig-bahar 2022-23. The field experiment was designed using FRBD (Factorial randomized block design) and included 20 treatment combinations of PGR (salicylic acid) and various nutrients with three replications. The findings showed that among all the fruit development parameters, i.e., fruit length (6.89 cm), fruit width (7.62 cm), average fruit weight (238.50 g), fruit volume (215.50 ml), and specific gravity (1.11g/cc), were achieved greatest in the treatments combination of (Salicylic acid 300 ppm + KNO3 0.5%) and all the yield attributing characteristics i.e., number of fruits per plant (97.83 fruit), yield / plant (22.40 kg) and yield / hectare (248.86 qt). The highest value was found in the treatment combination (Salicylic acid 200 ppm + Borax 0.5%) followed by (Salicylic acid 200 ppm + ZnSO4 0.5%) as compare (control).
... Since summer temperatures will continue to rise, potato cultivation might become increasingly difficult in the Demo trial. For Europe, simulations of the effect of climate change on potato yields showed both decreasing (-15 % to − 19 %;Hijmans, 2003) and increasing (+5 to +25 %; Raymundo et al., 2018) trends but those projections were characterized by a high amount of uncertainty depending on the data source and model. ...
Climate change will strongly influence agricultural practices in the future. In order to promote resource-efficient agriculture, it is important to analyse the impact of climate variation on crop yields. In this study, we report yields of spring wheat, winter barley, maize, potato and sugar beet from the long-term crop rotation and fertilization experiment Demo in Switzerland and analyze their response to different climate variables (e.g., annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, number of heat days and days of heavy rainfall). In addition, we investigate the impact of readily plant-available soil potassium (K) on the relationship of crop yields and precipitation. Annual and summer temperatures increased by 1 • C and 1.5 • C, respectively, over the observation period, and both the number of heat days and days of heavy rainfall increased in summer. Rising summer temperatures have a negative impact on all crop yields, which was most prominent for spring wheat, potato and maize. Annual, spring and summer precipitation show varying effects on different crops. For maize, soil K has a mediating effect on yield reductions under low spring precipitation. Yields are significantly reduced by 1 t ha − 1 per 100 mm reduction of precipitation below a soil K threshold of 7 mg K kg − 1 soil. Based on these results and the future climate scenarios for Switzerland, crop rotations with less heat-sensitive species and early-maturing varieties should be considered. In order to keep future irrigation demands and costs as low as possible, the soil K fertility classes in the Swiss K fertilization guidelines might need to be revisited. Our study is one of a few long-term observations that show the impact of climate variation on crop yields and highlights the potential of K management as a climate change adaptation measure.
... Crop simulation model has been a useful tool to investigate the interactions of G-E-M to increase crop yield (Lisson and Cotching, 2011;Zeleke and Nendel, 2016). Numerous studies have been conducted to explore the possible impacts of future climate change on potato production at different scales, such as local, regional and global (Stockle et al., 2003;Haris et al., 2015;Raymundo et al., 2017;Tang et al., 2020). While, there were some limitations in these previous studies. ...
... The agricultural produce in Nordic region includes barley, oats, wheat, rye, together with potato, rapeseed, and sugar beet [7]. Among these, Potato (Solanum tubersum L.) which is considered as the third most important food crop globally after rice, wheat [8], is one among the main crops into daily food consumption in Northern Europe. Intensive agricultural activities are carried out in this region for potato cultivation in two-to-four years rotation including advanced farming activities wherever needed [9]. ...
... In addition to comparing the microbial application with the baseline scenario, it could also be investigated how the two production systems behave under different climate change regimes or under salt stress. For instance, the study of Raymundo et al. (2018) provides valuable information for modelling a baseline saline potato production scenario. In this extension route, a clean control baseline scenario could be introduced, too. ...
Climate change presents a major threat to global agriculture, primarily due to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. As the third most important food crop after rice and wheat, potatoes play a crucial role in achieving food security and alleviating malnutrition due to their high productivity and nutritional value. However, potato cultivation remains highly susceptible to environmental stressors, with projections indicating a potential 32 % reduction in tuber yield by 2050. Climate-induced stress influences the virulence and population dynamics of pests and pathogens, heightening the risk of sudden outbreaks due to increased host susceptibility. The development of stress-tolerant potato varieties and the extensive application of fungicides accelerate pathogen resistance evolution, ultimately limiting their long-term efficacy. Additionally, excessive chemical inputs elevate production costs and pose significant environmental risks. To mitigate these challenges, weather-based approaches offer a promising solution by enabling timely management practices through increasing the accuracy of real-time forecasting and dissemination of weather information to farming communities. The integration of proper agronomic practices, suitable breeding techniques and forecasting weather information with crop protection measures can enhance resilience to climate-induced stress. Adopting the Internet of Things (IoT) technologies in precision agriculture can optimize resource use, improve decision-making and contribute to global food security.
Climate change is leading to a decline in global potato production. To ensure food security, it is essential to adapt cultivation practices to the changing climate. The effects of foliar-applied silicon on potato growth and productivity under various hydrothermal conditions were investigated. Potato plants were treated with three Si-based biostimulants: Actisil (6 g of Si and 20 g of Ca per liter; choline-stabilized orthosilicic acid; Chol-sSa + Ca); Krzemix (6 g of Si per liter; choline-stabilized ammonium metasilicate; Chol-sNH4-Sil); and Optysil (93 g of Si and 24 g of Fe per liter; sodium metasilicate and iron chelate Fe-EDTA; Na-Sil + Fe-EDTA). Biostimulants were foliar-applied twice, at the leaf development stage (BBCH 13–15) and two weeks after the first treatment, at 0.5 L/ha in each treatment. The plants treated with biostimulants were taller and produced greater above-ground biomass and a higher tuber weight than the control plants (without a biostimulant). As a result, the total tuber yield was higher, on average, by 10% to 13% and the marketable tuber yield by 11% to 15%. The plant-growth-promoting and yield-increasing effects of the Si-based biostimulants depended on the hydrothermal conditions during potato growth. Chol-sSA + Ca (Actisil) applications were the most effective. Na-Sil + Fe-EDTA (Optysil) produced better results during a warm and very dry year, while Chol-sNH4-Sil (Krzemix) was effective during colder years with a periodic water deficit. Silicon foliar application can be a new method for increasing early crop potato yields under water shortage conditions.
In South Korea, spring potatoes account for over 60% of total potato production, but global warming and anomalous weather events may impact their growth and yield. This study examined potato cultivation practices across 12 locations with varying climates, analyzing meteorological factors, soil properties, and potato composition to identify stable cultivation areas. A survey of 45 farms revealed earlier planting dates in G3 regions compared to G2 and G1. Regions were classified into three groups (G1, G2, and G3) based on climatic conditions, with G1 representing the most temperate regions, G2 indicating regions with moderate climates, and G3 including areas with the warmest climates. The Superior variety was predominately cultivated in average areas of 1.4 ha. Yields ranged from 22,500 to 35,000 kg/ha, with G2 regions producing the highest yields. During tuber formation, plant height in G2 and G3 was greater than in G1, but no differences were noted at harvest. Planting times correlated with higher February and March temperatures, which were highest in G3. Soil properties were suitable across all regions, with minor variations. Ash and crude fat content were highest in G1 crops, while ascorbate and glutathione levels were highest in G3. No significant differences were found in total phenol and flavonoid content, though G2 and G3 showed higher antioxidant activity. Similar weather during the main growth period (April–June) minimized regional differences in growth, yield, and quality, but ongoing monitoring is recommended as climate change progresses. Overall, this study provides insights into how climatic conditions affect potato cultivation in South Korea and emphasizes the importance of adapting farming practices to ensure stable yields under changing climate conditions.
Determining nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) and sulfur (S)
balance can be a precise technique to apply the right amount of nutrients to
potato cultivation. This study intends to quantify the total N, P, K and S input,
output and balance of potato cultivation under residue retention in
combination with different nutrient rates. The study used a split-plot design
with two levels of residues (NR, no residue vs. CR, presence of residue) in the
main plot and four levels of N, P, K and S rates (control [CL]; farmers' practice
[FP]; recommended dosage [RD]; and 125% of RD [125RD]) in the sub-plot. The
results revealed that the 125RD rate of nutrients showed the highest tuber
production, while FP and RD rates exhibited similar results. The interaction of
CR and N rates had a significant influence on NH3 emissions, with CR-125RD
reducing emissions by 15% compared to NR-125RD, where the emission factor
(EF%) was 4-6% of the applied N rate. Irrigation water contributed 1.1-2.5 kg
N, 0.1-0.8 kg P, 1.4-2.6 kg K, and 1.4-3 kg S ha-1
, while rainfall had a minor
contribution, accounting for 1.37 kg N, 0.32 kg P, 0.91 kg K, and 1.15 kg S ha-1
in input pathway. The FP, RD and 125RD with CR resulted in 14, 12 and 9%
reduced N uptake than with NR, while the K uptake was 22% lower in CR-RD
than in NR-RD. The P and S uptake decreased by 14 and 23%, respectively due
to residue retention. For S, the FP, RD and 125RD rates resulted in positive S
balances. When combined with CR, the same treatments lead to a positive N
balance as well. Since the balance of these treatments are identical among
themselves, the 125RD rate of N and S combined with CR can be suggested for
balancing N and S input-output without compromising yield. For P, all
treatments resulted in a remarkable positive balance, indicating the excess
application of P, a reduction of 17 kg P ha-1
in the RD rate of P may be feasible
with CR application. The K balance in CR-125RD approached a near-zero
balance (4.5 kg ha-1
), subsequently, the 125RD rate of K is advised with CR
retention. In conclusion, input-output-based nutrient fertilizer
recommendation offers a novel approach to optimize fertilizer management
while minimizing environmental footprint.
Context
The ongoing changes in climate constitute a major risk factor for global potato production. Recent studies have underscored the productivity-enhancing effects of plastic mulching for rain-fed potatoes. However, the adaptability of mulching measures to climate change in order to facilitate increased potato yields remains a question. Moreover, the coupling effects of different climatic factors on potato production was unclear.
Objective
This study aimed to investigate the impact of different climatic factors and their coupling effects on the yields of mulching and no mulching potatoes in the Loess Plateau.
Methods
We utilized multiple crop models and global climate models (GCMs) to predict the yields of mulching and no mulching potatoes on the Loess Plateau based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios. Additionally, we analyzed the response of yields to the coupling effects of climate, and clarified the effects of main climatic coupling effects to yield of mulching and no mulching potatoes.
Results and conclusions
We found that, for mulching potatoes, the contribution of climate coupling to yield under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios ranged from 47.05 % to 49.31 % for the period 2021–2060 and increased to 49.09 % to 50.94 % for the period 2061–2100. The mean temperature (Tmen)-dominated coupling contributed the most to yield for mulching potatoes, while for no mulching potatoes, precipitation (Pr)-dominated coupling played a dominant role. The maximum temperature (Tmax)-dominated coupling significantly reduced potato yields in the future, and mulching measures exacerbated the negative effect. However, mulching measures eliminated the adverse impact of minimum temperature (Tmin)-dominated coupling on potato yields. After decomposing the coupling effects of climatic factors, we found that the main factors leading to a reduction in potato yield were Tmax and Pr couplings, with mulching measures amplifying the heat-moisture effects. But mulching not only alleviated Tmin and Pr coupling but also strengthened the Tmean and Pr coupling, resulting in increased yield.
Significance
Hence, understanding how mulching potatoes avoid heat-moisture coupling to promote production was crucial for the future on the Loess Plateau. Our findings contribute to clarifying the impact of climatic coupling on mulching potato production, thereby aiding in the informed development of rational policies.
Climate change presents numerous challenges for agriculture, including frequent events of plant abiotic stresses such as elevated temperatures that lead to heat stress (HS). As the primary driving factor of climate change, HS threatens global food security and biodiversity. In recent years, HS events have negatively impacted plant physiology, reducing plant’s ability to maintain disease resistance and resulting in lower crop yields. Plants must adapt their priorities toward defense mechanisms to tolerate stress in challenging environments. Furthermore, selective breeding and long-term domestication for higher yields have made crop varieties vulnerable to multiple stressors, making them more susceptible to frequent HS events. Studies on climate change predict that concurrent HS and biotic stresses will become more frequent and severe in the future, potentially occurring simultaneously or sequentially. While most studies have focused on singular stress effects on plant systems to examine how plants respond to specific stresses, the simultaneous occurrence of HS and biotic stresses pose a growing threat to agricultural productivity. Few studies have explored the interactions between HS and plant–biotic interactions. Here, we aim to shed light on the physiological and molecular effects of HS and biotic factor interactions (bacteria, fungi, oomycetes, nematodes, insect pests, pollinators, weedy species, and parasitic plants), as well as their combined impact on crop growth and yields. We also examine recent advances in designing and developing various strategies to address multi-stress scenarios related to HS and biotic factors.
El cambio climático favorece al incremento de factores de estrés ambiental, como la mayor salinidad y el aumento de la sequía. Este escenario debilita la resiliencia de las plantas, ya sea por la afectación a su estructura o por el impacto al ecosistema en el que habitan. En ese sentido, numerosos cultivos han encontrado el modo de adaptarse; entre ellos, la quinua (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.). El presente manuscrito brinda propuestas para un mejor análisis y preservación de este cultivo, como la inclusión de una mayor cantidad de variables bioclimáticas en la determinación de zonas óptimas para su desarrollo, y la combinación de modelos integrados de cultivos, estructura, evolución, mapeo de material genético, tipos de suelo, que permitan a las comunidades seleccionar variedades que se adapten a estas condiciones.
A portable environmental sensor for agricultural applications is proposed that addresses key challenges in power supply, data transmission, and monitoring efficiency. The sensor features a photovoltaic power supply and a PID-based dynamic active–sleep scheme for sustainable energy management, maintaining optimal battery levels under varying solar conditions. Its compact, waterproof, and dustproof design (90 mm × 90 mm × 150 mm, 844 g) ensures robust and reliable operation in diverse agricultural environments. High-precision digital sensors monitor temperature, humidity, light intensity, and CO2 concentration. Equipped with low-power NB-IoT technology, the sensor supports real-time remote environmental monitoring. Our experimental results show effective continuous operation, accurate environmental measurements, and performance comparable to established data loggers. The advanced power management and precise sensing capabilities make this sensor a competitive solution for improving smart agriculture practices, particularly in resource-limited or off-grid settings.
The purpose of the study is to identify the relationship between drought resistance indicators and the yield of potato plants under unfavorable conditions. A xeromorphic leaf structure is considered a diagnostic sign of plant drought resistance. The objects of the study were 24 potato varieties. Planting of seed, pre-planting tillage, harvesting and crop recording were carried out in the period 2020-2022 on the territory of the Samara Research Institute of Agriculture - a branch of the Samara Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Growing conditions for 2021 and 2022 characterized by elevated temperatures and insufficient moisture. The number and size of stomata per unit leaf area were chosen as the criterion for xeromorphism. The studied varieties were divided into two groups (n=12 each) according to the number of stomata. In the first group, the average number of stomata was 26 thousand pcs./cm2 of leaf, and in the second group - 35 thousand pcs. (F=41, p=0.03). More developed structural features of xeromorphism and the accumulation of certain types of metabolites in the second group of varieties led to a 1.6 times greater yield than in the first less xeromorphic group (F=9, p=0.004). The second group was characterized by a large number of mesophyll cells per unit leaf area (584 thousand pieces/cm2 versus 557 thousand pieces), a high content of phospholipids (36 mg/g dry weight versus 31 mg/g), dry weight (0.19 vs. 0.17 g/g wet weight) and the ratio of membrane lipids to membrane proteins (1.4 vs. 1.2). In the less xeromorphic group of plants, the level of oxidative stress, assessed by LPO products, was 0.050 µM/g fresh weight and was 12 % higher than in the more xeromorphic group (F=6, p=0.08). The revealed positive correlation between yield and xeromorphic genotypes indicates the prospects of using this criterion in potato breeding or creating a variety model.
The potato is a staple crop for many people around the world, and it plays a vital
part in achieving Millennium Development Goals of ending hunger, poverty,
and malnutrition. CO2 levels in the atmosphere are expected to rise, which
gives a chance to boost potato harvests. This, however, can only happen if the
crop is resilient enough to endure the additional impacts of climate change
caused by the increase in CO2 concentrations. Climate change may positively
or negatively impact biotic stress; however, it is anticipated that abiotic stress
will increase significantly and threaten the production of potatoes. Changing
climatic conditions present a significant challenge to the cultivation of potatoes
because they increase the risk of crop failure, an extended growing season, low
yields, poor quality, host-pathogen interactions, insect dispersal, and insect
ecology are negatively impacted. Consequently, it is necessary to implement
adaptation strategies such as modifying cropping systems and other inputs,
planting dates, and growing regions. In addition, better water management
practices need to be implemented, and resistant potato cultivars need to be
developed.
The impact of projected climate during 2020-2080 on the potential yield of potato in Bihar has been analysed using InfoCrop model. Data from field experiments conducted at Patna, with popular potato variety Kufri Ashoka grown in rabi season of 2008-09 through 2010-11, was used for calibration and validation of model. It is indicated that increased minimum and maximum temperature projected for future time periods, however, almost no change in rainfall is projected for the stations under studied. The crop planted on 2 nd December, showed projected decline in yield ranging from 3.3-5.9% for 2020, 12.5-15% for 2050 and 19.3-24.8% for 2080 time period across the locations studied. Delayed planting by 10 days successively from 2 nd December through 22 nd December showed a progressively lower decline in the projected yield at different locations. However, advancing the planting time by 10 days resulted in higher decline in projected yield. W eather data analysis performed for the crop season (November-February).
A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) input management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with inter-annual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (p < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- versus high- input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide
The impact of proj ected climate during 2020-2080 on the potential yield of potato in Bihar has been analysed using InfoCrop model. Data from field experiments conducted at Patna, with popular potato variety Kufri Ashoka grown in rabi season of 2008-09 through 2010-11, was used for calibration and validation of model. It is indicated that increased minimum and maximum temperature proj ected for future time periods, however, almost no change in rainfall is projected for the stations under studied. The crop planted on 2 nd December, showed proj ected decline in yield ranging from 3.3-5.9% for 2020, 12.515% for 2050 and 19.3-24.8% for 2080 time period across the locations studied. Delayed planting by 10 days successively from 2 nd December through 22 nd December showed a progressively lower decline in the projected yield at different locations. However, advancing the planting time by 10 days resulted in higher decline in proj ected yield. W eather data analysis performed for the crop season (NovemberFebruary).
Irrigation intensifies land use by increasing crop yield but also impacts
water resources. It affects water and energy balances and consequently the
microclimate in irrigated regions. Therefore, knowledge of the extent of
irrigated land is important for hydrological and crop modelling, global
change research, and assessments of resource use and management. Information
on the historical evolution of irrigated lands is limited. The new global
historical irrigation data set (HID) provides estimates of the temporal
development of the area equipped for irrigation (AEI) between 1900 and 2005
at 5 arcmin resolution. We collected sub-national irrigation statistics
from various sources and found that the global extent of AEI increased from
63 million ha (Mha) in 1900 to 111 Mha in 1950 and 306 Mha in 2005.
We developed eight gridded versions of time series of AEI by combining
sub-national irrigation statistics with different data sets on the historical
extent of cropland and pasture. Different rules were applied to maximize
consistency of the gridded products to sub-national irrigation statistics or
to historical cropland and pasture data sets. The HID reflects very well the
spatial patterns of irrigated land as shown on historical maps for the
western United States (around year 1900) and on a global map (around year
1960). Mean aridity on irrigated land increased and mean natural river discharge
on irrigated land decreased from 1900 to 1950 whereas aridity decreased and
river discharge remained approximately constant from 1950 to 2005. The
data set and its documentation are made available in an open-data repository
at https://mygeohub.org/publications/8 (doi:10.13019/M20599).
Past, current and projected future population growth is outlined. Barring a calamitous pandemic, a further increase in the world’s population from 7 to between 8.8 and 10 billion by mid-century is unavoidable. This increase is driven by high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa whose population is forecast to more than double in the next 40 years and by a modest rise of 23 % in Asia’s huge population. Beyond mid-century, the range of plausible demographic destinations widens; much depends on fertility rates in the next few decades because they will determine the number of potential reproducers in the second half of the century. Vigorous promotion of family planning, particularly in Africa, is crucial to achievement of population stabilisation. Unchanged fertility implies a global population of 25 billion by the end of the century. In the next few decades the contribution of human population growth to global environmental change is moderate, because nearly all growth will occur in poor countries where consumption and emission of greenhouse gases is low. The implications for food production, and thereby water consumption, are greater. Much of the future need for food will be driven by increased numbers rather than changing diets. Loss of bio-diversity and natural habitats, degradation of fragile eco-systems due to over-exploitation and aquifer deletion are likely consequences.
The potential impacts of climate change on potatoes cropping in the Peruvian highlands (Altiplano) is assessed using climate projections for 2071–2100, obtained from the HadRM3P regional atmospheric model of the Hadley Centre. The atmospheric model is run under two different special report on emission scenarios: high CO2 concentration (A2) and moderate CO2 concentration (B2) for four locations situated in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca. The two main varieties of potato cultivated in the area are studied: the Andean potato (Solanum tuberosum) and the bitter potato (Solanum juzepczukii). A simple process-oriented model is used to quantify the climatic impacts on crops cycles and yields by combining the effects of temperature on phenology, of radiation and CO2 on maximum yield and of water balance on yield deficit. In future climates, air temperature systematically increases, precipitation tends to increase at the beginning of the rainy season and slightly decreases during the rest of the season. The direct effects of these climatic changes are earlier planting dates, less planting failures and shorter crop cycles in all the four locations and for both scenarios. Consequently, the harvesting dates occur systematically earlier: roughly in January for the Andean potato instead of March in the current situation and in February for the bitter potato instead of April. Overall, yield deficits will be higher under climate change than in the current climate. There will be a strong negative impact on yields for S. tuberosum (stronger under A2 scenario than under B2); the impact on S. juzepczukii yields, however, appears to be relatively mixed and not so negative.
The effect of climate change on global potato production was assessed. Potential yields were calculated with a simulation model and a grid with monthly climate data for current (1961–1990) and projected (2010–2039 and 2040–2069) conditions. The results were mapped and summarized for countries. Between 1961–1990 and 2040–2069 the global (terrestrial excluding Antarctica) average temperature is predicted to increase between 2.1 and 3.2 C, depending on the climate scenario. The temperature increase is smaller when changes are weighted by the potato area and particularly when adaptation of planting time and cultivars is considered (a predicted temperature increase between 1 and 1.4 C). For this period, global potential potato yield decreases by 18% to 32% (without adaptation) and by 9% to 18% (with adaptation). At high latitudes, global warming will likely lead to changes in the time of planting, the use of later-maturing cultivars, and a shift of the location of potato production. In many of these regions, changes in potato yield are likely to be relatively small, and sometimes positive. Shifting planting time or location is less feasible at lower latitudes, and in these regions global warming could have a strong negative effect on potato production. It is shown that heat-tolerant potato cultivars could be used to mitigate effects of global warming in (sub)tropical regions.
We projected US agricultural production in 2030 and 2090 at 45 representative sites, using 2 scenarios of climate change, developed with the Hadley Centre Model and the Canadian Centre Climate Model, and the DSSAT (Decision Support Systems for Agro-technology Transfer) dynamic crop-growth models. These simulation results have previously been aggregated nationally with the aid of economic models to show an increase in overall US agricultural output under climate change. In this work, we analyzed the regional distribution of the simulated yields, showing that positive results largely depend on the precipitation increases projected by the climate scenarios. In contrast, in some important rainfed production areas where precipitation was projected to decrease, such as the Kansas and Oklahoma Bread Basket regions under the Canadian Centre Climate Model scenario, climate change resulted in significant reductions of grain yield (-30 to -40%), accompanied by increased year-to-year variability. We also discussed the response to additional factors affecting the simulated US crop production under climate change, such as higher temperature and elevated CO2.
This paper examines the impacts of climate change on cassava production in Africa, and questions whether cassava can play an important role in climate change adaptation. First, we examine the impacts that climate change will likely have on cassava itself, and on other important staple food crops for Africa including maize, millets, sorghum, banana, and beans based on projections to 2030. Results indicate that cassava is actually positively impacted in many areas of Africa, with −3.7% to +17.5% changes in climate suitability across the continent. Conversely, for other major food staples, we found that they are all projected to experience negative impacts, with the greatest impacts for beans (−16% ± 8.8), potato (−14.7 ± 8.2), banana (−2.5% ± 4.9), and sorghum (−2.66% ± 6.45). We then examined the likely challenges that cassava will face from pests and diseases through the use of ecological niche modeling for cassava mosaic disease, whitefly, brown streak disease and cassava mealybug. The findings show that the geographic distribution of these pests and diseases are projected to change, with both new areas opening up and areas where the pests and diseases are likely to leave or reduce in pressure. We finish the paper by looking at the abiotic traits of priority for crop adaptation for a 2030 world, showing that greater drought tolerance could bring some benefits in all areas of Africa, and that cold tolerance in Southern Africa will continue to be a constraint for cassava despite a warmer 2030 world, hence breeding needs to keep a focus on this trait. Importantly, heat tolerance was not found to be a major priority for crop improvement in cassava in the whole of Africa, but only in localized pockets of West Africa and the Sahel. The paper concludes that cassava is potentially highly resilient to future climatic changes and could provide Africa with options for adaptation whilst other major food staples face challenges.
In the coming decades, a crucial challenge for humanity will be meeting future food demands without undermining further the integrity of the Earth's environmental systems. Agricultural systems are already major forces of global environmental degradation, but population growth and increasing consumption of calorie- and meat-intensive diets are expected to roughly double human food demand by 2050 (ref. 3). Responding to these pressures, there is increasing focus on 'sustainable intensification' as a means to increase yields on underperforming landscapes while simultaneously decreasing the environmental impacts of agricultural systems. However, it is unclear what such efforts might entail for the future of global agricultural landscapes. Here we present a global-scale assessment of intensification prospects from closing 'yield gaps' (differences between observed yields and those attainable in a given region), the spatial patterns of agricultural management practices and yield limitation, and the management changes that may be necessary to achieve increased yields. We find that global yield variability is heavily controlled by fertilizer use, irrigation and climate. Large production increases (45% to 70% for most crops) are possible from closing yield gaps to 100% of attainable yields, and the changes to management practices that are needed to close yield gaps vary considerably by region and current intensity. Furthermore, we find that there are large opportunities to reduce the environmental impact of agriculture by eliminating nutrient overuse, while still allowing an approximately 30% increase in production of major cereals (maize, wheat and rice). Meeting the food security and sustainability challenges of the coming decades is possible, but will require considerable changes in nutrient and water management.
An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation
models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with larger economic value for the state (apples, potatoes,
and wheat). To evaluate crop performance, a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) was utilized using historical and
future climate sequences. Crops were assumed to receive adequate water (irrigated crops), nutrients, and control of weeds,
pests and diseases. Results project that the impact of climate change on eastern Washington agriculture will be generally
mild in the short term (i.e., next two decades), but increasingly detrimental with time (potential yield losses reaching 25%
for some crops by the end of the century). However, CO2 elevation is expected to provide significant mitigation, and in fact result in yield gains for some crops. The combination
of increased CO2 and adaptive management may result in yield benefits for all crops. One limitation of the study is that water supply was
assumed sufficient for irrigated crops, but other studies suggest that it may decrease in many locations due to climate change.
The ever increasing amount of data gathered by more growers in more years offers possibilities to add value. Therefore—for
interested parties and stakeholders—a common and controlled vocabulary of the potato domain that describes concepts, attributes,
and the relations between them in a formal way using a standardised knowledge representation language is being developed:
a potato ontology. The advantage is that all possible stakeholders will be able to understand the data expressed by this ontology
and that software applications can process them automatically. It will also allow the application of advanced numerical techniques
that may help to uncover previously unknown correlations. This version of the potato ontology aims at the domain of processing
potatoes in a setting of mechanised potato production where growers have access to automated decision support systems and
exchange data electronically. This paper describes the procedures to establish such an ontology where competency questions
formulated by stakeholders and potential users take a central position. The potato ontology formally describes “Concepts”
or “Classes”. The three main classes are those used in crop ecology: Crop, Environment and Management. Classes, e.g., biocides
are a subclass of agro-chemicals, and in turn have a subclass Fungicides. The ontology also describes the “Properties” of
classes, e.g., agrochemicals are produced synthetically in a factory; biocides are used to protect crops and fungicides to
control fungi. The ontology also describes the “Attributes” (properties) of the concepts, e.g., all agrochemicals have attributes
such as dose and time of application and mode of application. “Restrictions” may be that a particular chemical can only be
applied with a certain type of equipment, or its application is restricted to a certain period or dose. The ontology also
features “Instances” which are the individual data such as a particular herbicide treatment with values for field, time, dose,
active ingredient, trademark, mode of application, which equipment operated by whom. The standardisation language used is
the “Ontology Web Language”.
KeywordsCrop performance–Environment–Genotype–Management–Processing potato
We developed interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas (excluding Antarctica) at a spatial resolution of 30 arc s (often referred to as 1-km spatial resolution). The climate elements considered were monthly precipitation and mean, minimum, and maximum temperature. Input data were gathered from a variety of sources and, where possible, were restricted to records from the 1950-2000 period. We used the thin-plate smoothing spline algorithm implemented in the ANUSPLIN package for interpolation, using latitude, longitude, and elevation as independent variables. We quantified uncertainty arising from the input data and the interpolation by mapping weather station density, elevation bias in the weather stations, and elevation variation within grid cells and through data partitioning and cross validation. Elevation bias tended to be negative (stations lower than expected) at high latitudes but positive in the tropics. Uncertainty is highest in mountainous and in poorly sampled areas. Data partitioning showed high uncertainty of the surfaces on isolated islands, e.g. in the Pacific. Aggregating the elevation and climate data to 10 arc min resolution showed an enormous variation within grid cells, illustrating the value of high-resolution surfaces. A comparison with an existing data set at 10 arc min resolution showed overall agreement, but with significant variation in some regions. A comparison with two high-resolution data sets for the United States also identified areas with large local differences, particularly in mountainous areas. Compared to previous global climatologies, ours has the following advantages: the data are at a higher spatial resolution (400 times greater or more); more weather station records were used; improved elevation data were used; and more information about spatial patterns of uncertainty in the data is available. Owing to the overall low density of available climate stations, our surfaces do not capture of all variation that may occur at a resolution of 1 km, particularly of precipitation in mountainous areas. In future work, such variation might be captured through knowledge-based methods and inclusion of additional co-variates, particularly layers obtained through remote sensing.
Climate change is expected to impact global food supply and food security by affecting growing conditions for agricultural production. Process-based dynamic growth models are important tools to estimate crop yields based on minimum inputs of climate, soil, crop management, and crop cultivar parameters. Using region-specific cultivar parameters is critical when applying crop models at a global scale because cultivars vary in response to climate conditions, soils, and crop management. In this study, parameters were developed for modern cultivars representing all 17 CIMMYT wheat Mega Environments (MEs) using field experimental data and genetic cultivar relationships for the CROPSIM-CERES model in DSSAT v 4.5 (Decision-Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer). Cultivar performance was tested with independent CIMMYT breeding trial field experiments across several locations. Then crop simulations were carried out at 0.5 x 0.5 degrees pixels for global wheat-growing areas, using cultivars representing MEs, soil information, region-specific crop management, and initial soil conditions. Aggregated simulated wheat yields and production were compared to reported country yields and production from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) statistics, resulting in a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.3 t/ha for yield and 2.2 M ticountry for country production. Some of the simulated errors are relatively large at country level because of uncertainties in pixel information for climate, soil, and crop management input and partly because of crop model uncertainties. In addition, FAO yield statistics have uncertainties because of incomplete farm reports or poor estimates. Nevertheless, this new cultivar-specific, partially-validated global baseline simulation enables new studies on issues of food security, agricultural technology, and breeding advancement impacts combined with climate change at a global scale.
Global warming has become one of the major challenges in maintaining global food security. This paper reviews the impacts of climate change on fourteen strategic crops for eight sub-Saharan Africa countries. Climate change is projected to increase median temperature by 1.4–5.5°C and median precipitation by −2% to 20% by the end of the 21st century. However, large levels of uncertainty exist with temporal and spatial variability of rainfall events. The impact of climate change on crop yields in the region is largely negative. Among the grain crops, wheat is reported as the most vulnerable crop, for which up to 72% of the current yield is projected to decline. For other grain crops, such as maize, rice and soybean, up to 45% yield reductions are expected by the end of this century. Two grain crops, millet and sorghum, are more resilient to climate change for which projected impacts on crop yields are <20%. Root crops, such as sweet potato, potato and cassava are projected to be less affected than the grain crops with changes to crop yields ranging from about −15% to 10%. For the two major export crops, tea and coffee, up to 40% yield loss is expected due to the reduction in suitable areas caused by temperature increase. Similar loss of suitable areas is also expected for banana and sugarcane production, however, this reduction is due to rainfall variability in lowland areas. Other crops such as cotton and sugarcane are projected to be more susceptible to precipitation variation that will vary significantly in the region. In order to mitigate the long-term impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors, the development of small-scale irrigation systems and water harvesting structures seems promising, however, affordability of such measures remains a key issue.
Higher temperatures caused by future climate change will bring more frequent heat stress events and pose an increasing risk to global wheat production. Crop models have been widely used to simulate future crop productivity but are rarely tested with observed heat stress experimental datasets. Four wheat models (DSSAT-CERES-Wheat, DSSAT-Nwheat, APSIM-Wheat, and WheatGrow) were evaluated with 4 years of environment-controlled phytotron experimental datasets with two wheat cultivars under heat stress at anthesis and grain filling stages. Heat stress at anthesis reduced observed grain numbers per unit area and individual grain size, while heat stress during grain filling mainly decreased the size of the individual grains. The observed impact of heat stress on grain filling duration, total aboveground biomass, grain yield, and grain protein concentration (GPC) varied depending on cultivar and accumulated heat stress. For every unit increase of heat degree days (HDD, degree days over 30 °C), grain filling duration was reduced by 0.30-0.60%, total aboveground biomass was reduced by 0.37-0.43%, and grain yield was reduced by 1.0-1.6%, but GPC was increased by 0.50% for cv Yangmai16 and 0.80% for cv Xumai30. The tested crop simulation models could reproduce some of the observed reductions in grain filling duration, final total aboveground biomass, and grain yield, as well as the observed increase in GPC due to heat stress. Most of the crop models tended to reproduce heat stress impacts better during grain filling than at anthesis. Some of the tested models require improvements in the response to heat stress during grain filling, but all models need improvements in simulating heat stress effects on grain set during anthesis. The observed significant genetic variability in the response of wheat to heat stress needs to be considered through cultivar parameters in future simulation studies.
The growth and development of a crop involve interactions between many physical, chemical, and biological processes. Crop growth models facilitate the study of the effect of these interactions on crop yield. Potato yields simulated by the SUBSTOR model were compared with measured values at Saint-Catherine-de-la-Jacques-Cartier near Québec, QC. A sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the crop input parameters to which SUBSTOR is most sensitive. Results of the sensitivity analysis showed that SUBSTOR outputs related to yield are sensitive to changes in the date of emergence and genetic parameters, especially variations in the degree of determinacy and potential tuber expansion rate. SUBSTOR was calibrated in 1992 and verified in 1993. Results of the simulations show that, on average, SUBSTOR overestimated potato dry yield by 4% in 1992 and underestimated it by 15% in 1993. In 1992 and 1993, maturity dates were simulated accurately, but maximum leaf area index was overestimated. Tuber initiation date was accurately simulated in 1993 and underestimated by 10 days in 1992. Since 1992 and 1993 were wet years, the crop is not likely to have suffered from water stress. However, simulated soil water content was underestimated during the growing season in 1993 that resulted in underestimation of potato yield.
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
The successful irrigation of potatoes requires a knowledge of both irrigation application and scheduling methods. A four-year field study of four irrigation scheduling and application methods for Russet Burbank potatoes was undertaken on a sandy loam soil near Oakes, North Dakota. A randomized complete block statistical design was used to assess the influence of irrigation treatments on total yield, no. 1 grade yield, specific gravity, and total irrigation applied. For the reference treatment, above-ground drip irrigation (AGDI) was used to apply irrigations based on 40% depletion of root zone available water on an area basis. The other treatments were: (1) AGDI, basing scheduling on a crop water stress index (CWSI) of 0.2; (2) subsurface drip irrigation (SDI), basing scheduling on measured soil matric potentials (SMPs) of 30 kPa using a feedback and control system to automate irrigation applications; and (3) AGDI, basing scheduling on SUBSTOR-Potatoes (SUBSTOR) growth model estimates of water use. Because of high relative humidity and intermittent cloudiness, irrigations for the CWSI treatment were also scheduled based on SMP of 30 kPa at 0.3-m depth. Averages for yield (39.7 Mg ha-1), percentage no. I grade (76.1%), and specific gravity (1.086) did not differ between treatments. The reference treatment required an average of 220 mm irrigation water each year, significantly higher than the 167 mm for CWSI, the 129 mm for SDI, and the 149 mm for SUBSTOR. Improved irrigation methods can save water without compromising potato yield or quality. Tensiometer-based methods were preferred, while SUBSTOR has limited practicality for irrigation scheduling.
Potato is the third most important food crop in terms of global consumption,
and it has been highly recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations as a food security crop as the world faces a growing population and
related problems with food supply. This paper presents data on global potato production,
consumption, malnutrition, and hunger; information which helps pinpoint where
the resource-poor and hungry live and how the potato and international agricultural
research could help improve food security and livelihoods in developing countries. The
International Potato Center has used such a targeting exercise to focus its research for
development and develop its new strategic plan, in which five out of the six objectives
are related to potato.
Keywords: Institutional innovation . Priority setting . “Pro-poor” technologies . Seed .
Small-scale farmers . Vulnerability
Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modelling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration ([CO2 ]). We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10% of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2 ] and temperature. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Many crop models have been developed for potato, and a few for sweet potato, and yam. More than 30 potato models, two sweet potato models, and three yam models are described in the literature, and each differ in model structure. Some potato models have been applied to studies of nitrogen fertilizer, irrigation management, and climate change impact, but most of these models have never been validated with field measurements. The nitrogen dynamics of potato models CROPSYSTVB-CSPOTATO, EXpert-N-SPASS, and LINTUL-NPOTATO have been tested with some field data. LPOTCO and AQUACROP are two potato models that have been tested under elevated atmospheric CO2 conditions. None of the models have ever been tested with high temperature or heat stress data. The most tested and applied potato models include versions of LINTUL and SUBSTOR-Potato. Two sweet potato models, MADHURAM and SPOTCOMS, and two yam models, CROPSYSTVB-Yam and EPIC-Yam had limited field-testing under current climate conditions; however, these sweet potato and yam models are not ready for climate change impact assessments. To prepare potato, sweet potato, and yam models for climate change impact assessments, they need to be (i) calibrated with modern cultivars across agro-climatic zones; (ii) tested and improved with crop physiology and dynamic measurements of phenology, growth, partitioning, and water and nitrogen uptake under different crop management and environments; and (iii) tested and improved with field studies of crop responses to climate factors, including elevated CO2, water stress, increased temperature, heat stress, and combinations of these. Such extensive model testing and improvement with field experiments require a coordinated international effort and long-term commitment to potato, sweet potato, and yam research.
Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2 ], we present the largest maize crop model inter-comparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg.ha(-1) per °C. Doubling [CO2 ] from 360 to 720 μmol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this Century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2 ] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2 ] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10–38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change.
This study aims to assess the risks and opportunities posed by climate change to potato growers in South Africa and to evaluate adaptation measures in the form of changes in planting time growers could adopt to optimise land and water use efficiencies in potato, using a climate model of past, present-day and future climate over southern Africa and the LINTUL crop growth model. This was done for distinct agro-ecosystems in South Africa: the southern Mediterranean area where potato still is grown year round with a doubling of the number of hot days between 1960 and 2050, the Eastern Free State with summer crops only and Limpopo with currently autumn, winter and spring crops where the number of hot days increases sevenfold and in future the crop will mainly be grown in winter. A benefit here will be a drastic reduction of frost days from 0.9 days per winter to 0. Potato crops in the agro-ecosystems will benefit considerably from increased CO2 levels such as increased tuber yield and reduced water use by the crop, if planting is shifted to appropriate times of the year. When the crop is grown in hot periods, however, these benefits are counteracted by an increased incidence of heat stress and increased evapotranspiration, leading in some instances to considerably lower yields and water use efficiencies. Therefore year-round total production at the Sandveld stabilizes at around 140 Mg ha−1 (yield reduction in summer and yield increase in winter), increases by about 30% in the Free State and stays at about 95 t ha−1 at Limpopo where yield increase due to CO2 is annulled by a shorter growing season. When the crop is grown in a cool period, there is an additional benefit of a reduced incidence of cold stress and a more rapid canopy development in the early stages of crop growth. In all three areas, potato growers are likely to respond to climate change by advancing planting. In Limpopo, a major benefit of climate change is a reduction in the risk of frost damage in winter. The relevance of these findings for potato grown in agro-ecosystems elsewhere in the world is discussed.
Climate change impacts on potential and rainfed crop yields on the European continent were studied using output of three General Circulation Models and the Crop Growth Monitoring System in combination with a weather generator.Climate change impacts differ per crop type and per CO2 emission scenario. Crops planted in autumn and winter (winter wheat) may benefit from the increasing CO2 concentration. Rainfall is sufficient and if the CO2 concentration increase is high, yields may increase up to 2090. If the CO2 increase is less, increasing temperatures result in declining or stagnating yields after 2050.Crops planted in spring (potato, sugar beet) initially benefit from the CO2 increase, however as time progresses the increasing temperatures reduce these positive effects. By the end of the century yields decline in southern Europe and production may only be possible if enough irrigation water is available. In northern Europe depending on the temperature and CO2 concentration increase, yields either stagnate or decline. However in some of the cooler regions yield increase is still possible.Crops planted in late spring and summer (maize) may suffer from droughts and high temperature in summer. By the end of the century, depending on the temperature rise, crop yields decline almost everywhere. If the temperature increase is less only in north western Europe yields remain stable.
Ecophysiological models are widely used to forecast potential impacts of climate change on future agricultural productivity and to examine options for adaptation by local stakeholders and policy makers. However, protocols followed in such assessments vary to such an extent that they constrain cross-study syntheses and increase the potential for bias in projected impacts. We reviewed 221 peer-reviewed papers that used crop simulation models to examine diverse aspects of how climate change might affect agricultural systems. Six subject areas were examined: target crops and regions; the crop model(s) used and their characteristics; sources and application of data on [CO2] and climate; impact parameters evaluated; assessment of variability or risk; and adaptation strategies. Wheat, maize, soybean and rice were considered in approximately 170 papers. The USA (55 papers) and Europe (64 papers) were the dominant regions studied. The most frequent approach used to simulate response to CO2 involved adjusting daily radiation use efficiency (RUE) and transpiration, precluding consideration of the interacting effects of CO2, stomatal conductance and canopy temperature, which are expected to exacerbate effects of global warming. The assumed baseline [CO2] typically corresponded to conditions 10–30 years earlier than the date the paper was accepted, exaggerating the relative impacts of increased [CO2]. Due in part to the diverse scenarios for increases in greenhouse gas emissions, assumed future [CO2] also varied greatly, further complicating comparisons among studies. Papers considering adaptation predominantly examined changes in planting dates and cultivars; only 20 papers tested different tillage practices or crop rotations. Risk was quantified in over half the papers, mainly in relation to variability in yield or effects of water deficits, but the limited consideration of other factors affecting risk beside climate change per se suggests that impacts of climate change were overestimated relative to background variability. A coordinated crop, climate and soil data resource would allow researchers to focus on underlying science. More extensive model intercomparison, facilitated by modular software, should strengthen the biological realism of predictions and clarify the limits of our ability to forecast agricultural impacts of climate change on crop production and associated food security as well as to evaluate potential for adaptation.
We assessed the effect of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, as well as the direct fertilization effect of CO2, on crop yields in Quebec, Canada. Our methodology coupled the transient diagnostics of 2 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (CGCM1 and HadCM3) to the DSSAT 3.5 crop simulation system to simulate current (1961-1990) and future (2040-2069) crop yields for spring wheat, maize, soybean and potato grown in 8 agricultural regions of Quebec. For the future (2040-2069), we predict significant yield increases for soybean, lesser increases for wheat, no significant change for maize, and yield decreases for potato. These yields, especially for soybean, are further increased when incorporating the CO2 fertilization effect, but vary according to the crop, climate scenario and agricultural region. Similar trends have been found in comparable agricultural regions in the Northeastern USA and in Southern Finland. These results are useful for designing appropriate crop and farm management adaptation strategies in response to future climate change.
Climate change effects caused by an increasing concentration of CO2 and ozone represent an issue of major concern both for scientists and policy-makers. In a concerted program funded by the Commission of the European Union, a European network of experiments (in open-top chambers (OTC), and free air carbon dioxide enrichment systems (FACE)) and modelling was carried out to investigate the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and ozone concentrations, under different climatic conditions, on potato (Solanum tuberosum L. cv. Bintje). This contribution describes the experimental network and the standard protocol set-up for the assessments that served to improve and to validate process oriented potato growth simulation models leading to scenarios of future productivity of potato in Europe.
ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS. crop simula- tion, modeling, DSSAT, nitrogen mineralization, Solanum tuberosum SUMMARY. Growers lack practical decision aides that accurately pre- dict nitrogen (N) credits for organic sources to adjust fertilizer rates. The simulation model, DSSAT, was used to predict N supply in relationship to N demand in irrigated potatoes (Sola- num tuberosum). Tuber yield and soil inorganic N levels were substantially higher in the simulations than in fi eld experiment observations, indicating the need for model improvement. DSSAT was successful at predict- ing relative mineralization rates and potato N uptake for different organic and inorganic N source combina- tions. Interestingly, both simulation and fi eld experiment observations indicated that combining a high qual- ity organic manure at 5000 lb/acre (5604.2 kg·ha -1 ), total applied N 250
Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models are difficult. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policy making.
The impacts of climate change on the irrigation water requirements and yield of potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.) grown in England have been assessed, by combining the downscaled outputs from an ensemble of general circulation models (GCM) with a potato crop growth model. The SUBSTOR-Potato model (embedded within the DSSAT program) was used to simulate the baseline and future irrigation needs (mm) and yield (t ha−1) for selected emissions scenario (SRES A1FI and B1) for the 2050s, including CO2 fertilisation effects. The simulated baseline yields were validated against independent experimental and field data using four reference sites. Probabilistic distribution functions and histograms were derived to assess GCM modelling uncertainty on future irrigation needs. Assuming crop husbandry factors are unchanged, farm yields would show only marginal increases (3–6%) due to climate change owing to limitations in nitrogen availability. In contrast, future potential yields, without restrictions in water or fertiliser, are expected to increase by 13–16%. Future average irrigation needs, assuming unconstrained water availability, are predicted to increase by 14–30%, depending on emissions scenario. The present ‘design’ capacity for irrigation infrastructure would fail to meet future peak irrigation needs in nearly 50% of years. Adaptation options for growers to cope with these impacts are discussed.Highlights► A study on the impacts of climate change on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) yield in England show marginal increases (3–6%) owing mainly to limitations in nitrogen availability. Future potential yields, without restrictions in water or fertiliser, are expected to increase by 13–16%. ► Future irrigation needs, assuming unconstrained water availability, are predicted to increase by 14–30%, depending on emissions scenario. ► The present ‘design’ capacity for irrigation infrastructure would fail to meet future peak irrigation needs in nearly 50% of years.
With current annual production at over 600 million tonnes, wheat is the third largest crop in the world behind corn and rice, and an essential source of carbohydrates for millions of people. While wheat is grown over a wide range of environments, it is common in the major wheat-producing countries for grain filling to occur when soil moisture is declining and temperature is increasing. Average global temperatures have increased over the last decades and are predicted to continue rising, along with a greater frequency of extremely hot days. Such events have already been reported for major wheat growing regions in the world. However, the direct impact of past temperature variability and changes in averages and extremes on wheat production has not been quantified. Attributing changes in observed yields over recent decades to a single factor such as temperature is not possible due to the confounding effects of other factors. By using simulation modelling, we were able to separate the impact of temperature from other factors and show that the effect of temperature on wheat production has been underestimated. Surprisingly, observed variations in average growing-season temperatures of ±2 °C in the main wheat growing regions of Australia can cause reductions in grain production of up to 50%. Most of this can be attributed to increased leaf senescence as a result of temperatures >34 °C. Temperature conditions during grain filling in the major wheat growing regions of the world are similar to the Australian conditions during grain filling. With average temperatures and the frequency of heat events projected to increase world-wide with global warming, yield reductions due to higher temperatures during the important grain-filling stage alone could substantially undermine future global food security. Adaptation strategies need to be considered now to prevent substantial yield losses in wheat from increasing future heat stress.
Geographical changes in suitability in England and Wales for the cultivation of potatoes under a climate change scenario were predicted for the years 2023 and 2065 by integrating a climate database (1951-80) with climate-driven crop growth models. Initially, model outputs were produced as point values (meteorological site locations) of predicted potential yields for current crop production. The model outputs were validated statistically using actual crop yield figures collated from bibliographic analysis. The most suitable model was run again incorporating projected temperature and precipitation changes for 2023 and 2065. These outputs were then used to predict possible economic changes to farm profitability and general market trends. Results indicated that, although yields may rise, gross margins for maincrop and especially early potatoes may also rise due to shifts in production, to a fall in overall potato output and to price increases.
The global distribution of potato area is described using country-level statistics and a new geo-referenced database. There
are two main peaks in global potato distribution by latitude. The major peak is between 45°N and 57°N and represents potato
production zones in the temperate climates where potato is a summer crop. The other peak is between 23°N and 34°N, and mainly
represents production zones in the subtropical lowlands, where potato is a winter crop. Between 1950 and 1998 potato production
area increased at low latitudes and decreased at high latitudes, particularly around 53°N (this zone includes parts of Belarus,
Germany, Poland, Russia, and Ukraine). The northern limit of potato production coincides with the boundaries of agriculture
and the presence of human population. The peak between 23°N and 34°N coincides with the area of highest population density
(per area of land and per area of arable land). About 25% of the global potato area is in the highlands (above 1000 m).
Para describir la distribución mundial del área de cultivo de papa hemos usado estadísticas a nivel de país y una nueva base
de datos georreferenciada. Hay dos picos principales en la distribución global de papa de acuerdo a su latitud. El mayor está
entre 45°N y 57°N y representa las zonas de producción de papa en los climas templados, donde la papa es un cultivo de verano.
El otro pico se ubica entre los 23°N y 34°N, y representa principalmente la producción en zonas de las tierras bajas subtropicales,
donde la papa es un cultivo de inverno. Entre 1950 y 1998 el área de producción de papa se incrementó en las latitudes bajas
y decreció en las altas, particularmente alrededor de los 53°N (esta zona incluye partes de Bielorrusia, Alemania,
This paper reports adaptations of a generic crop model IN FOCROP for potato and its application in increasing the efficiency
of agronomic experiments in tropical environments. A dataset of 13 experiments consisting of 153 treatments was assembled
from an extensive literature search. These experiments were conducted over the period 1976-1999 in diverse Indian locations
from 31 °N 75 ° E to 25 ° N 85 ° E. The treatments varied in locations, seasons, planting dates, water and N management and
varieties. The duration to tuber initiation in the dataset varied between 25–63 days after planting and tuber yield between
11.0-45.3 t ha-1. Simulated trends of phenological development, growth and tuber yield were in close agreement with the measured with acceptable
error. It was concluded that the model was adequate to simulate the effect of various crop management factors to obtain quick
results and increase the efficiency of agronomic experiments.
The use of crop simulation models to predict yield, associated with decision support systems such as Decision Support System
for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), are useful tools to test different management strategies.
The potato growth model included in DSSAT is SUBSTOR-potato. To evaluate its performance in Argentina it was calibrated and
validated using experimental results from different sites and years. Cultivar-specific coefficients were obtained during calibration.
Validation based on several independent sets of field data, including cvs Huinkul, Kennebec, Mailén and Spunta showed good
agreement (R2=0.915; n=24) between observed and simulated values in normal ranges of tuber yields. However, when the input parameter maturity
date was not taken into account, tuber yields were overvalued due to an overestimation of LAI values during maturation. To
solve this problem, a genetic coefficient for the duration of tuber filling needs to be included in the model.
Potato cultivars were grown in a glasshouse and plants periodically transferred to a growth chamber. When the ambient temperature
in the growth chamber was raised from 15 to 40°C in steps of 5°C per hour, net photosynthetic rate decreased at temperatures
above 20°C. At 40°C the rate was 37% of the rate at 20°C. A greater decrease in net photosynthetic rate occurred with plants
of the cultivar Up-to-Date than with cultivars R100 and BP13. Low values of leaf diffusive resistance were recorded and changes
in photosynthetic rate could not be explained by changes in this factor. When a constant ambient air temperature of 20°C was
maintained while soil temperature was increased, net photosynthetic rate decreased.
The photoperiodic behaviour of 18 potato clones from three taxonomic groups (Andigena, Phureja, and Tuberosum diploid and tetraploid) was studied under controlled environments. Day lengths of 11, 13, 15, and 17 hours were provided with all other environmental conditions common. Six characters were studied: tuber formation, stem height, haulm weight, tuber number, tuber weight, and tuberization efficiency (tuber weight/haulm weight).
All clones showed well defined critical daylength values at which tuberization was either absent or irregular. A wide variability for critical day length was observed among clones, the higher values corresponding to Tuberosum tetraploid and the lower values to the Phureja group. Stem height and haulm weight increased as photoperiod increased. Tuber number remained practically the same for all groups but Phureja which showed an inverse relationship. Tuber weight decreased as daylength increased for the groups Andigena, Phureja, and Tuberosum diploid which on the average showed a short day reaction for tuber yield. Tuberosum tetraploid did not show any significant change, behaving as a day neutral type. Tuberization efficiency was, in general, decreased as daylength increased suggesting a short day behaviour for all groups.
A regression analysis of tuber yield and tuberization efficiency on photoperiod indicated that, in general, tetraploid genotypes were less sensitive to drastic increases in daylength than diploids.