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Climate Deterrence: Disasters and Security After COP 21
Abstract
The Paris Agreement (COP 21) indicates an effort of nations towards the creation of a worldwide mechanism to control climate. Estimated to enter into force in 2020, the Agreement recognizes that countries may be affected not only by climate changes, but also by the impact of the actions taken in response to those changes. The objectives of this paper are: to excite the discussion about securitization of climate change, discussing its relation with disasters and conflicts; and to identify items which have constructed the current status of climate change in political and security agendas, highlighting the contribution of COP 21. For that purpose, a corpus formed by 51 items, produced between the beginning of the Cold War (1945) and July 2016, has been examined according to the analysis units proposed by the Copenhagen School, mainstream for this research. The results obtained indicate: (i) construction of climate change as a threat to international security (linked to conflicts and disasters); (ii) building of financial mechanisms, among others, to align the conduct of countries in a political agenda; and (iii) increase of military sector participation in the debate about climate change and preparation for increased action in disasters. This study makes two contributions to the existing literature. First, it provides a framework of items which clarify the securitization process of climate change and its relation with security, disasters and the armed forces. Second, through this analysis, it underlines the inclusion of the military sector in the relation between climate change, security and disasters.
This article explores the escalating impact of climate change and the global green transition on international relations, particularly in the aftermath of the Paris Agreement in 2015. While physical risks stemming directly from climate change consequences are a concern, the rise of transition risks associated with the global green shift poses significant threats to societies, political systems, and economies. The current emissions reduction targets outlined in the Paris Agreement are deemed inadequate to address the mounting physical risks, underscoring the imperative
of enhancing states’ climate security. Transition risks are intricately linked to the fragmentation of global politics, driven by varying climate ambitions and disagreements on decarbonization methods among states. Fault lines emerge based on factors such as fossil fuel abundance, states’ positions in energy geopolitics, socio-economic development levels, utilization of green transition opportunities, and participation in international climate agreements. In this context, Russia confronts numerous risks, compelling the nation to articulate and advocate its unique vision
of decarbonization while fostering alliances with non-Western states in this critical domain.
Disasters exact a heavy toll globally. However, the degree to which we can accurately quantify their impact, in particular mortality, remains challenging. It is critical to ensure that disaster data reliably reflects the scale, type, and distribution of disaster impacts given the role of data in: (1) risk assessments; (2) developing disaster risk management programs; (3) determining the resources for response to emergencies; (4) the types of action undertaken in planning for prevention and preparedness; and (5) identifying research gaps. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030s seven global disaster-impact reduction targets represent the first international attempt to systematically measure the effectiveness of disaster-impact reduction as a means of better informing policy with evidence. Target A of the Sendai Framework aims to “substantially reduce global disaster mortality by 2030, aiming to lower the average per 100,000 global mortality rate in the decade 2020–2030 compared to the period 2005–2015.” This article provides an overview of the complexities associated with defining, reporting, and interpreting disaster mortality data used for gauging success in meeting Target A, acknowledging different challenges for different types of hazard events and subsequent disasters. It concludes with suggestions of how to address these challenges to inform the public health utility of monitoring through the Sendai Framework.
In 2015, climate change is elevated to the same threat level as that of weapons of mass destruction and terrorist attacks in National Security Strategy of United States of America, causing discussions about the construction of one of the biggest threats of the twenty-first century. This research aims to identify facts and events that contributed for climate change to enter the political agenda and safety studies, arising from a securitization process under construction. To achieve so, points interconnected with climate change, security and armed forces, with time frame between 1945 and August 2015 were selected. The corpus, formed by official documents and bibliography from defense and security research centers of America and Europe, was examined using the Copenhagen School proposals of dealing with the securitization process as analysis units. The results indicate: (i) recent inclusion of climate change (list of threats) in major Western security strategies, within a securitization process; (ii) possibilities of climate change become "potential generators of sovereignty deficit", legitimizing future actions; (iii) climate change (such as "military" or "non-military" threat) will have consequences for the armed forces (requiring new skills).
O livro analisa a situação da Educação Ambiental e para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável (EA/EDS) a partir de dois inquéritos nacionais – um aplicado à totalidade das escolas do ensino básico e secundário, outro a um conjunto de organizações não escolares (estatais, privadas e associativas). Os dados inéditos recolhidos permitiram discutir e avaliar a EA/EDS que se faz hoje em Portugal (incluindo o seu percurso histórico) e o papel que ela tem desempenhado na formação de uma cidadania preparada para a(s) crise(s) ambiental global e outras.
De acordo com os resultados, a EA/EDS caracteriza-se por ser mais ‘vertical’ do que ‘transversal’, permanecendo demasiadas vezes confinada à turma sem envolver a comunidade escolar (auxiliares de acção e ducativa, professores, alunos) e muito menos a comunidade extra-escolar (pais, autarquias, empresas locais). Isto apesar de alguns bons exemplos, que existem e poderiam ser replicados.
Este livro foi lançado no Dia Mundial da Água, sendo este um dos temas mais trabalhados nos projectos de Educação Ambiental (77,1%) – só ultrapassado pela questão dos RSU com 77,6%, e logo seguido pela conservação da natureza
(71,4%). Em contrapartida, temáticas tão relevantes para o desenvolvimento sustentável como as da saúde ou da
solidariedade social, tendem a ficar de fora. Importa também realçar, no que toca aos grupos-alvo dos projectos, o
peso esmagador dos estudantes mais jovens (Ensino Pré-escolar, 1º Ciclo do Ensino Básico e 2º Ciclo do Ensino Básico) face aos estudantes do secundário. Esta “infantilização” dos projectos de EA/EDS aponta para o carácter essencialmente recreativo e lúdico que tende a revestir estas actividades em Portugal.
A este facto não será alheia a dificuldade de integração da EA/EDS nos programas escolares, que em parte resulta duma desarticulação institucional persistente entre os vários ministérios envolvidos. Um outro problema tem a ver com a falta de continuidade dos projectos de Educação Ambiental. Entre a crónica falta de recursos e a descontinuidade de políticas de apoio e incentivo, o esquema de mobilidade no trabalho dos professores do ensino público leva a que, frequente, com a saída de determinado professor, o projecto acabe por se extinguir.
Em resumo, defende-se neste livro que as escolas deveriam tornar-se verdadeiros exemplos de inteligência ambiental, conferindo à Educação Ambiental o carácter transversal e mobilizador que pode e deve ter. Tal implica uma reforma a vários níveis, incluindo o das infra-estruturas. Sem surpresa, são as escolas que dispõem de mais equipamentos – laboratórios, ginásios, bibliotecas – as que desenvolvem maior número de projectos de EA/EDS. A actual dinâmica de reconstrução e melhoria de equipamentos nas escolas seria, pois, um momento oportuno para uma tal viragem.
Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win” situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
Resumo Desde o fi nal da Segunda Guerra Mundial deu-se uma "grande aceleração" do desenvolvimento social e económico a nível mundial que está a conduzir a uma relativa escassez dos recursos naturais e a afectar de forma negativa e profunda o ambiente. Particularizando para as alterações climáticas antropogénicas faz-se uma revisão dos impactos sobre o oceano à escala global e especifi camente no caso de Portugal. Por fi m, analisam-se os actuais sinais de instabilidades estruturais do nosso actual modelo de desenvol-vimento relacionados com a crise fi nanceira e eco-nómica iniciada em 2008. Abstract Environmental Challenges originated by Post World War II "Great Acceleration" Since the end of World War II the "great acceleration" has achieved an extraordinary social and economic development at the global scale which nevertheless is originating a relative scarcity of natural resources and also has profound negative impacts on the environment. Considering the particular case of the anthropogenic climate change the article addresses its impacts on the global ocean and especially in Portugal. Finally the present signs of unsustainabilities associated with our model of development and their relation with the fi nancial and economic crisis that started in 2008 are analysed and discussed.
The metamorphosis of the world is about the hidden emancipatory side effect of global risk. This article argues that the talk about bads produces ‘common goods’. As such, the argument goes beyond what has been at the heart of the world risk society theory so far: it is not about the negative side effects of goods but the positive side effects of bads. They are producing normative horizons of common goods. This is what the author defines as ‘emancipatory catastrophism’. Emancipatory catastrophism can be seen and analysed by using three conceptual lenses: first, the anticipation of global catastrophe violates sacred (unwritten) norms of human existence and civilization; second, thereby it causes an anthropological shock, and, third, a social catharsis.
Purpose
– The paper aims to investigate the consequences of climate change for the future of armed forces and their presentation in national security documents.
Design/methodology/approach
– A classification of potential future military roles and functions is derived from relevant literature, resulting in six “military futures”. Frames are developed for these whose occurrence is counted in 53 authoritative documents on security policy and defense planning from 38 countries. Results are presented in descriptive statistics.
Findings
– The paper demonstrates that climate change has become an important issue for military planning. However, the directions in which it takes thinking about the future of armed forces differ widely. Among the six “military futures” identified, those linked to the function of disaster relief are most frequently found. However, the expansion of traditional military roles is also promoted. Rarer are suggestions for armed forces to became “greener” or “leaner”. In general, climate change provides an additional justification for continuing established paths for military planning.
Originality/value
– The paper makes two contributions to the existing literature. First, it provides a classification of potential future consequences of climate change for armed forces. Second, it empirically establishes, for a set of authoritative documents, the relative importance of differing expectation of the effects of climate change on the structure and functions of militaries.
International Security Studies (ISS) has changed and diversified in many ways since 1945. This book provides the first intellectual history of the development of the subject in that period. It explains how ISS evolved from an initial concern with the strategic consequences of superpower rivalry and nuclear weapons, to its current diversity in which environmental, economic, human and other securities sit alongside military security, and in which approaches ranging from traditional Realist analysis to Feminism and Post-colonialism are in play. It sets out the driving forces that shaped debates in ISS, shows what makes ISS a single conversation across its diversity, and gives an authoritative account of debates on all the main topics within ISS. This is an unparalleled survey of the literature and institutions of ISS that will be an invaluable guide for all students and scholars of ISS, whether traditionalist, 'new agenda' or critical.
If states cannot cooperate to take action on climate change, they might begin to coerce one another to do so.
This study examines various attempts to define the concept of the offensive/defensive balance of military technology, to trace the theoretical consequences of an offensive or defensive advantage, and to measure or classify the balance for the last eight centuries. It is concluded that the last two tasks are flawed because of the ambiguity of the concept of the offensive/defensive balance. There are multiple definitions and multiple hypotheses, but these are not interchangeable, particularly between the pre-nuclear and nuclear eras, where the concept means something fundamentally different. Hypotheses appropriate for one definition may be implausible or tautological for another. It is concluded that the notion of the offensive/defensive balance is too vague and encompassing to be useful in theoretical or historical analysis, but that some of the individual variables that have been incorporated under this broader concept may themselves be useful. Much more analysis is needed, however, to demonstrate that these concepts have important theoretical consequences.
Richard H. Ullman, Professor of International Affairs at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, spent the 1982-83 academic year as a visiting member of the Institute for Advanced Study.
1. The Leviathan (1651), Part I, Ch. XIII.
2. There is no better place to begin that discussion than Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1976), chapter 3.
3. This is not to say that there are not recriminations following wars or military crises. Indeed, the governments that lead nations when war is thrust upon them—or when they initiate war themselves—are often subject to pillory. It may be alleged that their complacence allowed their nations' defenses to atrophy to a point where their military forces no longer deterred attack. Or they may be accused of recklessness that brought on a needless and expensive war. But while the war is still in prospect, or while it is actually underway, there are too seldom any questions of leaders' abilities to command the requisite resources from their perceptibly threatened countrymen.
4. The same is true, it should be noted, about some "ordinary" foreign threats. In 1975 a majority of Senators and members of Congress did not believe that the presence of Soviet-supported Cuban troops in Angola posed a significant threat to U.S. security, and legislated limits on potential American involvement. Three years earlier they imposed a cutoff on U.S. bombing of targets in Cambodia and North Vietnam on the supposition that continued bombing would no longer (if it ever did) promote U.S. security. For a discussion of these Congressional curbs on the President's ability to commit American military resources, see Thomas M. Franck and Edward Weisband, Foreign Policy By Congress (New York: Oxford University Press, 1979), esp. pp. 13-23 and 46-57.
5. For a recent authoritative study, see An Assessment of the Consequences and Preparations for a Catastrophic California Earthquake: Findings and Actions Taken (Washington: Federal Emergency Management Agency, 1980). For a summary of current estimates, see Richard A. Kerr, "California's Shaking Next Time," Science, Vol. 215 (January 22, 1982), pp. 385-387.
6. The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) fiscal year 1983 appropriation for civil defense was 3,120,000. California's total budgeted expenditure for earthquake safety for fiscal year 1983 was 17 billion, but it indicates that the figure might be low by a factor as high as three (p. 22).
9. The most...
Typhoon Haiyan was the strongest tropical cyclone to have ever hit land and provides an opportunity to analyse the application of emergency management principles in disaster response. In this case study, the author seeks to objectively assess the Philippine government's response before, during and after Typhoon Haiyan according to these principles. The study refers to the Philippine legislative and institutional framework as well as the government's overall response in relation to these principles. This study hopes to provide a resource for emergency management professionals, especially in the public administration and defence sector, in dealing with similar disasters and adopting potentially life-saving interventions.
Abstract The first half of the Review focuses on the impacts and risks arising from uncontrolled climate change, and on the costs and opportunities associated with action to tackle it. A sound understanding of the economics of risk is critical here. The Review ...
The author attempts to illustrate that the intangible quality of security has been mistakenly defined in terms of military strength. This false image concentrates only on military threats, thus ignoring even more potentially harmful dangers, and it encourages militarization on an international scale which only serves to increase global insecurity, not security. The Third World nations will produce an expanding demand for resources as a result of their dramatic population growth, a fact which should be considered in creating a redefinition of global security. The author feels security increases as vulnerability decreases, however resource allocations for military and nonmilitary dimensions of security are disposed of in quite different ways. He feels the various public-interest organizations now at work will eventually raise the public's consciousness enough to decrease this disparity in the future. 28 references.
National security agencies of four major powers—the United States, Russia, China, and the United Kingdom—see their militaries taking on additional roles in domestic disaster relief because of the effects of global climate change. Otherwise, national security actors show drastically different responses to climate change. The US and Russian militaries are planning for a thawing of the Arctic; but outside the Arctic, Russia seems not to regard climate change as a serious national security issue. The United States, the United Kingdom, and China are studying the effect of rising sea levels on coastal military installations; Russia apparently is not. The United States and the United Kingdom have begun significant efforts to cut energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, but because of low domestic energy prices, the Russian military has few incentives to reduce energy consumption or increase alternative energy use. And out of deference to the government’s official position that climate change is a development rather than security issue, China’s military has largely limited its climate-related activities to mass tree planting and disaster relief. Regardless of their positions on climate change, national security entities in these four countries are not expressing much urgency or taking aggressive stands, in part due to the paucity of established knowledge about the connection between a warming climate and national security.
It has long been understood by disaster researchers that both the general public and organizational actors tend to believe in various disaster myths. Notions that disasters are accompanied by looting, social disorganization, and deviant behavior are examples of such myths. Research shows that the mass media play a significant role in promulgating erroneous beliefs about disaster behavior. Following Hurricane Katrina, the response of disaster victims was framed by the media in ways that greatly exaggerated the incidence and severity of looting and lawlessness. Media reports initially employed a “civil unrest” frame and later characterized victim behavior as equivalent to urban warfare. The media emphasis on lawlessness and the need for strict social control both reflects and reinforces political discourse calling for a greater role for the military in disaster management. Such policy positions are indicators of the strength of militarism as an ideology in the United States.
Climate change is increasingly been called a ‘security’ problem, and there has been speculation that climate change may increase the risk of violent conflict. This paper integrates three disparate but well-founded bodies of research – on the vulnerability of local places and social groups to climate change, on livelihoods and violent conflict, and the role of the state in development and peacemaking, to offer new insights into the relationships between climate change, human security, and violent conflict. It explains that climate change increasingly undermines human security in the present day, and will increasingly do so in the future, by reducing access to, and the quality of, natural resources that are important to sustain livelihoods. Climate change is also likely to undermine the capacity of states to provide the opportunities and services that help people to sustain their livelihoods. We argue that in certain circumstances these direct and indirect impacts of climate change on human security may in turn increase the risk of violent conflict. The paper then outlines the broad contours of a research programme to guide empirical investigations into the risks climate change poses to human security and peace.
Beck, sin olvidar las tendencias a la individualización cada vez mayor en la vida contemporánea, señala especialmente los problemas institucionales. El paso de una modernidad simple basada en la sociedad industrial y en las relaciones de trabajo a la modernidad reflexiva que supone un cambio en el tipo de riesgos a los que nos enfrentamos.
There is now clear scientific evidence that emissions from economic activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels for energy, are causing changes to the Earth´s climate. A sound understanding of the economics of climate change is needed in order to underpin an effective global response to this challenge. The Stern Review is an independent, rigourous and comprehensive analysis of the economic aspects of this crucial issue. It has been conducted by Sir Nicholas Stern, Head of the UK Government Economic Service, and a former Chief Economist of the World Bank. The Economics of Climate Change will be invaluable for all students of the economics and policy implications of climate change, and economists, scientists and policy makers involved in all aspects of climate change.
The concept of US national security was redefined in the 1970s to include international economics, and lately environmental degradation has also become a factor, as pollution transcends boundaries. By 2100 another 5-6 billion people may be added to the world's population requiring dramatic production and technology transformation with the resultant expanded energy use, emissions, and waste impacting the ecosystem. Climate change through global warming is in the offing. The exponential growth of the population in the developing world poses a crucial challenge for food production, housing, and employment. At a 1% growth rate population doubles in 72 years, while at 3% it doubles in 24 years. Africa's growth rate is almost 3%, it is close to 2% in Latin America, and it is somewhat less in Asia. Renewable resources such as overfished fishing grounds can become nonrenewable, and vanished species can never be resurrected. Deforestation leads to soil erosion, damage to water resources through floods and silting of irrigation networks, and accelerated loss of species. 20% of species could disappear by 2000 thereby losing genetic resources for chemicals, drugs, and food sources. Overcultivation has caused major erosion and decline of agricultural productivity in Haiti, Guatemala, Turkey, and India. Lopsided land ownership in Latin America requires land reform for sustainable agricultural production in the face of the majority of people cultivating plots for bare subsistence. Human practices that have caused environmental damage include concessions granted to logging companies in the Philippines, mismanagement of natural resources in sub-Saharan Africa, the ozone hole, and the greenhouse effect with potential climate changes. Solutions include family planning, efficient energy use, sustainable agroforestry techniques, and environmental accounting of goods and services.
There is now clear scientific evidence that emissions from economic activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels for energy, are causing changes to the Earth´s climate. A sound understanding of the economics of climate change is needed in order to underpin an effective global response to this challenge. The Stern Review is an independent, rigourous and comprehensive analysis of the economic aspects of this crucial issue. It has been conducted by Sir Nicholas Stern, Head of the UK Government Economic Service, and a former Chief Economist of the World Bank. The Economics of Climate Change will be invaluable for all students of the economics and policy implications of climate change, and economists, scientists and policy makers involved in all aspects of climate change.
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