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Abstract

Introduction to the Technical Report ”Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector”, published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017
Global Energy System Based on
100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector:
Global Overview
Study funded by the
German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and
Stiftung Mercator GmbH
Authors:
Manish Ram, Dmitrii Bogdanov, Arman
Aghahosseini, Solomon Oyewo, Ashish Gulagi,
Michael Child, Hans-Josef Fell, Christian Breyer
Germany
www.100-ee.de/
Nov 2016, COP22, Marrakech:
48 countries (Climate Vulnerable Forum) decided for a
100% RE target
More Countries set 100% targets, e.g.:
Denmark, Sweden, Costa Rica, Iceland, Cape Verde
Cities with 100% RE targets, e.g.:
Barcelona, Masdar City, Munich, Masheireb, Downtown,
Doha, Vancouver, San Francisco, Copenhagen, Sydney, …
Companies with 100% RE targets, e.g.:
Google, Coca-Cola, IKEA, Walmart, …
3Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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1st Modelling of 100% RE Global Power System
§The modelling by the Lappeenranta University of Technology as of 2017 is the only one to run
at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale.
§Real weather data were used for assessing the solar, wind and hydro resources.
§By 2050, the world population is expected to grow from 7.3 to 9.7 billion.
§The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015
to around 48,800 TWh by 2050.
4Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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LUT Energy System Model
§The technologies applied for the energy system optimisation include those for electricity
generation, energy storage and electricity transmission
§The model is applied at full hourly resolution for an entire year
§The LUT model will be expanded to all energy sectors for a follow-up study
5Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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Electricity Generation in 2015 and 2050
§In 2050, solar PV accounts for 69%, wind energy 18%,
hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricity
mix globally.
§Gas generation is only from renewable energy based gas
(bio-methane and power-to-gas)
§Nuclear power still accounts for negligible 0.3% of the
total electricity generation, due to the end of its assumed
technical life, but could be phased out earlier.
6Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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Global Full Load Hours
Key insights for wind energy:
§uneven global distribution
§excellent conditions available in all
major regions in the world
§seasonal variation of availability
Key insights for solar PV:
§most evenly distributed energy
resource around the world
§diurnal variation
§seasonal stability in Sun Belt region
§stronger seasonality in northern
hemisphere
7Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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Regional Variation Solar PV and Wind
§Solar PV is the dominating source of electricity in the Sun Belt
§Wind energy is very important in the North
§In regions of less solar PV and wind energy the contribution of hydropower is excellent
8Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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Major RE Capacities in 2050
§Latitudes of 45N and higher show a strong seasonality effect, i.e. parts of North America, Europe and
Eurasia; this implies a strong wind demand
§The effect of excellent other RE resources can be observed for instance in Russia (excellent wind, and
hydropower in Siberia and Far East), Brazil (excellent hydropower), Laos (excellent hydropower) or
Sumatra in Indonesia (excellent geothermal energy)
9Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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Electricity Storage Output in 2015 and 2050
§Batteries are the key supporting technology for solar PV.
§Storage output covers 31% of the total demand in 2050,
95% of which is covered by batteries alone.
§Battery storage provides mainly diurnal storage, and
renewable energy based gas provides seasonal storage.
10 Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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Storage Supply Shares in 2050
§Battery storage mainly plays a role in providing diurnal storage with around 31% of the total supply
§Gas storage mainly plays a role in providing seasonal storage with just 2% of total supply (1% from
synthetic natural gas and 1% from bio-methane both RE-based)
§Prosumers play a significant role and hence a large portion of batteries can be observed in 2050, also
with low costs of solar PV and batteries
11 Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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Renewable Electricity is Cost-effective
§Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global
average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is 52
/MWh compared to 70 /MWh in 2015.
§These costs include generation, curtailment, storage and
some grid costs.
§Stable and secure electricity supply for all hours of a year.
12 Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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Electricity System Cost during Transition
§The global power system LCOE remains stable for the
first periods, showing a gradual decline from 70 /MWh to
59 /MWh from 2015 to 2040, including all generation,
storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs
§Beyond 2040 the LCOE further declines to 52 /MWh by
2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition
result in reduction of energy costs
§After an initial increase, the investment requirements
decline after 2030 to stabilise between 2040 to 2050
13 Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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100% Renewables drastically reduces Losses
§The total losses in a 100% renewable electricity system are around 26% of the total electricity
demand, compared to the current system in which about 58% of primary energy input is lost.
§Thermal power plants (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, biomass) lose much of the primary energy input.
§Curtailment is a low-cost flexibility option in future.
14 Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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Job Opportunities
§The global energy transition to a 100% renewable electricity system creates 36 million jobs by
2050 in comparison to 19 million jobs by 2015.
§Governments should start programmes to convert coal jobs to jobs for renewable energy.
15 Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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Job Opportunities
§Fossil and nuclear energy-related jobs can be easily substituted by RE-related ones
§Solar PV and battery storage will be prime job creators 2030 onwards
§More stable jobs will be available in operation and maintenance
§The total jobs per generated electricity will first increase due to strong investment needs and will
stabilise towards 2050 comparable to the current level
16 Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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100% Renewables reduce GHG Emissions to zero
§Global greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduce from about 11 GtCO2eq in 2015 to zero
emissions by 2050 or earlier, as the total LCOE of the power system declines.
17 Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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Policy Recommendations
§Instruments, enabling direct private investments in renewable energy and other zero-
emission technologies
Fixed feed-in-tariffs, such as the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)
Hybrid renewable power plant renumeration
Tenders only for capacities above 40 MW
§Phasing-out all state subsidies to fossil fuel and nuclear energy generation
§Tax exemptions for investments in renewable energy
§Replacement of emission trading systems with carbon & radioactivity taxes
§Research and education
18 Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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Key Findings
§Global electricity system based on 100% renewables is technically feasible and cost-effective
§Existing RE potential and technologies can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the
entire global electricity demand by 2050
§Total LCOE on a global average for 100% RE is 52 /MWh in 2050, vs. 70 /MWh in 2015
§Electricity generation will be mainly based on solar PV, plus wind energy, hydropower and
some bioenergy
§Substantial regional variations: solar PV dominance in the Sun Belt, more wind in the North
§Electricity storage mainly provided by battery storage plus RE gas for seasonal balancing
§The future electricity system is significantly more efficient than the present one
§Many new stable jobs will be created, which enables the substitution of lost coal jobs
§GHG emissions can be reduced to zero by 2050, even by 2040 is a possibility
§Political action that is pro renewables is the need of the hour
19 Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy -Power Sector: Global Overview
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Further Findings
Results for the world and all major regions are available
(subsequent links to 92 countries/ regions are provided in the slides below):
§Global Overview http://bit.ly/2gQIY6p
§Europe http://bit.ly/2zonZ6a
§Eurasia http://bit.ly/2zlUVfC
§MENA http://bit.ly/2lDUib0
§Sub-Saharan Africa http://bit.ly/2A5QgeQ
§SAARC http://bit.ly/2iS2TGi
§Northeast Asia http://bit.ly/2gRKghh
§Southeast Asia/ Pacific http://bit.ly/2A44Ao6
§North America http://bit.ly/2zn0IS3
§South America http://bit.ly/2iiWu2O
Financing of Stiftung Mercator GmbH and Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt
is gratefully acknowledged.
Further information and all publications at:
www.energywatchgroup.org
www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer
... Energy Systems Simulations (ESS) play an important role in influencing public opinion and the opinion of decision makers [1]. An impression of this attempt give [2][3][4]. A prominent example for ESSs with the goal to impact policy decisions on the German national level is [2]. ...
... The publication is based on several studies regarding energy systems that have been performed during the last years with the goal to extract the necessary information to clarify which steps have to be taken in order to defossilize the energy system over the next decades. An example for a relevant ESS on the international level is the LUTs Energy model, which is the bases for [3], a report that uses the results of many studies performed with the LUT Energy model. Results of the model are made available to the public also via a webpage where the energy supply at each hour of the year can be visualized [5]. ...
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