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STATISTICS IN TRANSITION new series, June 2016
249
STATISTICS IN TRANSITION new series, June 2016
Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 249–264
ON THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN SMART
GROWTH AND COHESION INDICATORS
IN THE EU COUNTRIES
1
Beata Bal-Domańska
2
, Elżbieta Sobczak
3
ABSTRACT
Within the framework of the Europe 2020 strategy smart growth is listed as one
of the leading policy objectives aimed at improving the situation in education,
digital society and research and innovation. The objective of this article is to
evaluate the relationships between smart growth and economic and social
cohesion factors. Aggregate measures were used to describe smart growth pillars.
Here, social cohesion is described by the level of employment rate as one of the
conditions essential to the well-being and prosperity of individuals. Economic
cohesion is defined by the level of GDP per capita in PPS. Observation of these
three phenomena forms the basis for the construction of panel data models and
undertaking the assessment of the relationships between smart growth and
economic and social cohesion factors. The study was performed on the group of
27 European Union countries in the period of 2002-2011.
Key words: economic and social cohesion, smart growth, European Union
countries, panel data analysis
1. Introduction
European economies face many challenges in the contemporary world.
Actions outlined in the Europe 2020 strategy present the response of the EU
member countries (a strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth).
It emphasises the importance of a balanced development of all countries and
1
The study was conducted within the framework of research grant NCN no.
2011/01/B/HS4/04743 entitled: European regional space classification in the perspective of smart
growth concept – dynamic approach.
2
Wrocław University of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Tourism, Department
of Regional Economics, Nowowiejska 3, 58-500 Jelenia Gora, Poland.
E-mail: beata.bal-domanska@ue.wroc.pl.
3
Wrocław University of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Tourism, Department
of Regional Economics, Nowowiejska 3, 58-500 Jelenia Gora, Poland.
E-mail: elzbieta.sobczak@ue.wroc.pl.
250 B. Bal-Domańska, E. Sobczak: On the relationships between …
regions, particularly by unblocking and initiating growth processes through
actions aimed to strengthen three priorities:
smart growth – i.e. development of the knowledge-driven economy,
sustainable growth – i.e. transformation towards low-carbon economy, which
efficiently uses resources and benefits from competition,
inclusive growth – i.e. fostering a high-employment economy bringing about
social and territorial cohesion.
Countries that provide favourable conditions for smart growth are expected to
gain a developmental advantage that manifests itself in the form of a higher level
of social progress (for example noticeable in the larger number of workplaces
available to individuals); and economic advancement (expressed in a higher
output of goods and services).
The new endogenous growth theory (Romer, 1986), (Romer, 1990) directs the
focus to the knowledge related factors. It implies the possibility of accumulation
of the growth incentives, which creates a favourable environment for a constant
development, but at the same time it may add to sustaining or even increasing
differences between countries. In this approach, the long-term socio-economic
development is based on the gains in human capital resources, physical and
technological innovation, which in turn will increase the productivity of
traditional growth factors through education, R&D, diffusion of innovation, along
with positive spillovers related to the transfer of technology and assets. As
(Fiedor, 2010) states, “this growth is based on the increase of the intellectual
capital resources in the region by strengthening business support institutions
oriented towards creating entrepreneurship and innovation, as well as, forming the
web of linkages between the economy and the sphere of education, science and
research.”
Economic and social cohesion – according to the European Union policy – is
about reducing disparities between countries and the lagging behind of the
advantaged regions. It should also promote more balanced, more sustainable
‘territorial development’.
This article attempts to assess the relationships between smart growth and
social and economic cohesion in the EU countries. The focus of the research is
not straightforwardly on the process of levelling off of the disparities but rather on
establishing whether changes observed in smart growth level can or cannot
influence the socio-economic situation and enable the levelling off processes as
far as territorial disparities are concerned.
The definition of smart growth is based on the three conceptual pillars:
innovativeness, as the driving force of economies towards knowledge and
innovation,
creativity, in the form of human capital resources,
smart specialization, as the existing cutting-edge structures of highly
advanced and specialised branches of economy.
STATISTICS IN TRANSITION new series, June 2016
251
The concept of smart growth pillars as well as social and economic cohesion
were based on the assumptions made over the course of research study on:
European regional space classification in the perspective of smart growth concept
– dynamic approach (Markowska, Strahl, 2013).
4
It is rather difficult to clearly indicate the directions of relationships that link
smart growth and social and economic cohesion. It is more appropriate to state
that they coexist and are interconnected. Smart growth is seen as the causative
factor for achieving social and economic cohesion. Social and economic cohesion
supports the expansion of spheres related to knowledge, human capital and
innovation, which in turn are needed to create conditions for smart growth.
Shifting growth to knowledge and high-tech sectors is not possible without
achieving a certain level of socio-economic development, with reference to the
aspects related to human capital formation, among others.
The review of selected regional development theories on the role of
innovation was presented by Dominiak et al. (2012), Kawa (2007) and Strahl
(2010), among others, while human capital aspects were discussed by, e.g.:
Herbst (2007) and Cichy (2008).
This analysis of relationships between economic and social cohesion and
smart growth is presented as the cross-section of the EU countries in the period of
2002-2011.
2. The research procedure and techniques
The analysis was conducted for all 27 EU Member States (excluding Croatia
which joined the EU structures in 2013) in the period of 2002-2011. The Eurostat
database
5
was the source of data for all the variables. This ensured comparability
of data concerning the analysed countries.
The study was performed in three stages which covered:
I. Defining measures for smart growth, economic and social cohesion
II. Constructing aggregate measures for smart growth, economic and social
cohesion
III. Estimating econometric models of economic and social cohesion with
smart growth pillars
4
Grant NCN no. 2011/01/B/HS4/04743.
5
Internet service http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat.
252 B. Bal-Domańska, E. Sobczak: On the relationships between …
Stage I. Defining measures for smart growth, economic and social
cohesion
Multidirectional and multidimensional relations within socio-economic
processes make their measurement a complex task. It is further hindered by
limited access to the statistical data necessary to evaluate processes occurring in
that area (especially at the administrative level, which is lower than the country
level).
Economic cohesion is described by means of Gross Domestic Product per
capita in PPS (GDP). This indicator is widely regarded as a relatively good
measure of economic activity. For comparison purposes, these values were
calculated as values per 1 inhabitant.
Social cohesion can be defined in the socio-cultural context as the willingness
of members of a society to cooperate with each other in order to survive and
prosper (Stanley, 2003). The OECD Development Centre describes a cohesive
society as one which “works towards the well-being of all its members, fights
exclusion and marginalisation, creates a sense of belonging, promotes trust, and
offers its members the opportunity of upward social mobility” (OECD, 2011). On
the basis of the works of the European System of Social Indicators (EUSI), social
cohesion was measured in the context of a system of indicators, which
distinguishes between two principle goals of social cohesion across a wide
spectrum of life domains (Berger-Schmitt, 2000). The first goal is about reducing
disparities, inequalities, and social exclusion within a society, while the second
deals with the strengthening of the social capital in a society. Regarding the first
goal, regional disparities are taken into account, for example with respect to
access to transport, leisure and cultural facilities, educational and health care
institutions, employment opportunities or the condition of the natural
environment. The social dimension covers many diverse aspects reflected in local
residents’ quality of life. Therefore, a question arises which social cohesion
aspects present the strongest connections with smart growth. In the presented
study the employment factor (expressed as the employment rate among
population aged 20-64 in % (EM)) is defined as the key aspect of social cohesion.
The impact of employment issues on social cohesion may be considered in terms
of its significance to an individual. In the light of this approach, employment is
the basic condition that provides financial means necessary to obtain goods and
services. Being at work lays foundations for individual aspirations and
advancement, and determines one’s social position, thus influencing the overall
level of satisfaction derived from life and its quality.
A set of diagnostic indicators for smart growth was suggested. Among them
the indicators for each pillar were selected, based on the availability and
comparability of data over time for 27 countries (Table 1).
STATISTICS IN TRANSITION new series, June 2016
253
Table 1. The set of diagnostic indicators for smart growth pillars
SMART GROWTH
Pillar I
SMART SPECIALIZATION
KIS – employment in
knowledge-intensive services as
the share of total employment
(%)
HTMS – employment in high
and medium high-technology
manufacturing as the share of
total employment (%)
Pillar II
CREATIVITY
TETR – the share of tertiary
education employment in total
employment in a region (%)
HRST – human resources in
science and technology as the
percentage of active
population (%)
LLL – participation in
education and training of
population aged 25-64 (as the
share of total population (%))
Pillar III
INNOVATION
R&De – research and
development expenditure in
enterprise sector (% of GDP)
R&Dgov – research and
development expenditure in
government sector (% of
GDP)
EPO - patent applications to
the European Patent Office
per million labour force
Source: Authors’ compilation based on: European regional space classification in the
perspective of smart growth concept – dynamic approach (grant NCN no.
2011/01/B/HS4/04743)
Smart specialization emphasises the real scope and role of the high and
medium technology sector in the employment structure of individual countries.
Currently, knowledge- and innovation-based economies, i.e. the ones where a
large proportion of GDP and workplaces comes from these sectors, are considered
to be capable of gaining a competitive advantage on an international scale, thus
guaranteeing the availability of workplaces to individuals. For knowledge-
intensive services (KIS) knowledge is the main production factor as well as the
good that they offer. In line with the Eurostat methodology, services are mainly
aggregated into knowledge-intensive services (KIS) and less knowledge-intensive
services (LKIS) based on the share of tertiary educated persons at NACE 2-digit
level. KIS covers such activity as:
knowledge-intensive high-tech services (post and telecommunications;
computer and related activities; research and development);
knowledge-intensive market services (excluding financial intermediation
and high-tech services) (water transport; air transport; real estate activities;
renting of machinery and equipment without operator, and of personal and
household goods; other business activities);
knowledge-intensive financial services (financial intermediation, except
insurance and pension funding; insurance and pension funding, except
compulsory social security; activities auxiliary to financial intermediation);
other knowledge-intensive services (education; health and social work;
recreational, cultural and sporting activities).
254 B. Bal-Domańska, E. Sobczak: On the relationships between …
The high and medium high-technology manufacturing (HMMS) refers to such
groups of economic activity as:
high technology (basic pharmaceutical product and pharmaceutical
preparation; computer, electronic and optical products; air and spacecraft
and related machinery);
medium and high technology (chemicals and chemical products; weapons
and ammunition; electrical equipment, machinery equipment, motor
vehicles, trailer and other; medical and dental instruments and supplies).
Creativity is the aspect that focuses on the quality of human capital across
countries, as well as readiness to improve qualifications. Human capital is
approximated by three variables: human resources in science and technology
(HRST) - citing the Canberra Manual, this refers to those individuals who fulfil
one of the following conditions: (1) successfully completed education at the
tertiary (third) level in an S&T field of studies, (2) did not formally qualify as
above, but are employed in a S&T profession, where the above qualifications are
normally required. This variable helps to better understand the demand for and
supply of highly skilled, specialized staff in S&T. Highly skilled human resources
are defined as essential to the diffusion of knowledge, and form the crucial link
between technological progress and economic growth, social development and
environmental well-being. The second variable underlines the general level of
formal knowledge in the society expressed by percentage of people who
successfully completed tertiary education, and the third variable describes the
level of inclination toward life-long learning.
Innovation is the pillar that represents the amount of R&D funds invested in
the region, taking into consideration the character of the investor (business and
public sector), along with the results of innovation activities in the form of patent
applications (EPO). The total European patent applications refer to requests made
for protection of an invention forwarded either directly to the European Patent
Office (EPO) or filed under the Patent Cooperation Treaty and designating the
EPO (Euro-PCT), regardless of whether they are granted or not.
To obtain the comparability of data among countries and their economies all
features were defined as indicators (in relation to other phenomena, e.g.
population, employed).
Stage II. Constructing measures for smart growth, economic and social
cohesion
This stage of analysis covers (Hellwig 1968; Walesiak 2006; Bal-Domańska,
Wilk 2011):
A. Defining the character of a variable in terms of its connection to the
described phenomena as: (S) stimulant – when the increase in a variable
indicates an improved situation; (D) destimulant – when the increase in the
value is interpreted as deterioration in the situation. (N) nominant – when a
STATISTICS IN TRANSITION new series, June 2016
255
specified value is the only one to be regarded as having positive impact; the
values below and above the nominal one have negative impact on the
assessment of the situation. All variables applied to describe economic and
social cohesion, as well as smart growth, were treated as stimulants.
Their higher values strengthen development processes.
B. Normalising diagnostic indicators by scaling between 0 and 1 in line with
the following formula:
(1)
where:
zitj – value of j-diagnostic feature (indicator, variable) (j = 1, 2,…, K) in i-
th object (country) (i = 1, 2,…, N) in t-th period (t = 1, 2,…, T)
after the normalization by scaling between 0 and 1,
xitj – implementation of j-diagnostic feature in i-th object in t-th period,
minxitj (maxxitj) – the lowest (highest) value of j-diagnostic feature xitj.
The standardisation was simultaneously performed for values of the
variable referring to all countries and years, which allowed comparison of
the country’s position in consecutive years.
C. Calculating aggregate growth measure (AGM) for l-th pillar of smart
growth (l = SS, C, I; SS – smart specialization; C- creativity; I –
Innovation) by:
- defining the global benchmark of smart growth z0t for T periods together
for each variable,
(2)
such that: (3)
- calculating aggregate growth measure for each of the Kl sub-measures
of smart growth l-th pillar:
(4)
Each of the values is normalised between 0 and 1, so that 1 is the most
favourable value.
itj
i
itj
i
itj
i
itj
itj xx
xx
zminmax
min
],
020100 ....[ tKttt zzzz
.max
0itjtj zz
,
1
1
l
it
K
jitj
l
l
SMART z
K
AGM
256 B. Bal-Domańska, E. Sobczak: On the relationships between …
Stage III. – Models of social and economic cohesion
Linear econometric models describe relations which combine smart growth
with economic and social cohesion by means of applying panel data in the EU
countries, which is presented in the form of the following model constructions:
(5)
(6)
where:
itECON
AM ,
- aggregate measure for economic cohesion for i-th country in t-th
year, which is GDP (Gross Domestic Product per capita in PPS),
itSOC
AM ,
- aggregate growth measure for social cohesion for i-th country in t-
th year, which represents EM (the employment rate among
population aged 20-64 in %),
it
AGSS
(
SS itSMART
AGM ,
) - aggregate growth measure for smart specialization
pillar of smart growth for i-th country in t-th year,
it
AGC
(
CitSMART
AGM ,
) - aggregate growth measure for creativity pillar of
smart growth for i-th country in t-th year,
it
AGI
(
IitSMART
AGM ,
) - aggregate growth measure for innovation pillar of
smart growth for i-th country in t-th year,
αi - constant in time individual effects for i-th country,
αt - different intercepts in each year common for all objects (countries),
ε - error term.
In the model both individual effects for each country αi, and time for each
year αt, were included. Incorporating individual effects into the model structure
made it possible to take into account characteristics which are specific for each
country and constant in time (such as geographic location and accompanying
resources). Time effects introduce an additional incidental parameter bias
(Wooldridge, 2002).
In order to estimate the parameters, adequate estimation techniques, typical
for panel data, were applied. LSDV (Least Squares with Dummy Variable) model
was used in the study (Greene, 2003), (Wooldridge, 2002). To assess the validity
of introducing the individual effects αi to the model, F test was performed.
(7)
), , , ,,,( ti, itititititECON AGIAGCAGSSAM
)()(
)1()(
2
22
KNNT/e
N/ee
F
OLS
LSDVOLS
). , , ,,,( ti, itititititSOC AGIAGCAGSSAM
STATISTICS IN TRANSITION new series, June 2016
257
where:
- the sum of squared residuals in the LSDV (Least Square
Dummy Variable) and OLS (Ordinary Least Square)
regression.
It is the test of null hypothesis, i.e. all the units share the same intercept
against the alternative that they are different from.
Wald’s test (chi-square) was applied to assess the validity of introducing αt
time effects to the model.
In the process of estimating econometric models, certain problems, may
occur, e.g. autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity. In order to minimize their possible
negative effects, robust standard errors (Arellano, 2003) were used in assessing
the significance of structural parameters evaluation.
All calculations were performed in GRETL.
3. Econometric analysis results
The analysis begins with the distribution of aggregate values of growth
measures for particular pillars of smart growth (Figure 1), as well as of economic
and social cohesion (Figure 2) for 27 EU countries, in the period of 2002-2011.
The levels of smart specialisation (AMSS) and innovation (AMI) in the studied
countries do not change significantly in the analysed years. A significant increase
in the aggregate measure of growth is observed for creativity (AMC).
Innovation occurs to be the most diverse variable pillar of smart growth (in
terms of variation coefficient) in the cross-section of the EU countries, while
smart specialisation is the least one. In the analysed time periods (years) the
levelling off of creativity, and to a lesser extent innovation, can be observed.
Figure 1. Values of aggregate growth measure of smart growth pillars for the EU
countries in the period of 2002-2011
Source: Authors’ work in STATA program.
0.2 .4 .6 .8
AMC
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
.2 .4 .6 .8
AMSS
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0.2 .4 .6 .8
AMI
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
)( 22 LSDVOLS ee
258 B. Bal-Domańska, E. Sobczak: On the relationships between …
Looking at the distribution of the values of economic cohesion (Figure 2) one
can observe that GDP grows over the entire analysed period, except the years
directly after the crisis (2008-2009). Attention should be paid to the level of GDP
per capita for Luxemburg, which differs from other countries in each of the
studied years (to be seen as outlier observations). In 2011 GDP per capita in PPS
of Luxemburg was 68,100, in Netherlands – the second country in the range –
32,900, in Austria – 32,400 and in Ireland – 32,300, which is half of Luxemburg’s
GDP amount. The lowest GDP level was recorded in Romania and Bulgaria –
about 11,700, a slightly higher one in Latvia – 14,700.
Within the analysed period, the processes of achieving economic cohesion are
observed, which manifests itself in narrowing differences in the level of economy
development among countries (measured as GDP per capita in PPS). These
positive processes came to a halt in the years 2008-2011. However, disparities
among countries in GDP per capita at the end of the analysed period are shown to
be narrower than in the first year of the research.
The value of the employment rate (Figure 2) increased significantly (referring
to the median and maximum value) during the period of 2004-2008. It can also be
noticed that the minimum value of the indicator grows year on year, which seems
to be a positive aspect, which indicates the increase of the employment rate even
in the countries with the least favourable situation. In 2011, the highest
employment rate was in Sweden (79%), Netherlands (77%), with values
exceeding 75% also reported in Germany, Austria and Denmark. The lowest
employment rate in 2011 (about 60%) was recorded in Greece, Hungary, Italy and
Malta.
Until 2008, the processes leading to social cohesion among the EU countries
were observed; it was manifested in decreasing disparities in employment levels
among countries. However, in the years of the crisis and immediately after them
the differences in employment levels were growing again.
Figure 2. Values of economic and social cohesion indicators for the EU countries
in the period of 2002-2011
Source: Authors’ work in STATA program.
0.2 .4 .6 .8 1
GDP
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0.2 .4 .6 .8 1
Employment rate age group 20-64
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
STATISTICS IN TRANSITION new series, June 2016
259
Out of the three smart growth pillars: creativity, innovation and smart
specialization, only creativity could be identified as statistically significant (at the
level of 0.1) in terms of its influence on economic cohesion (Table 2). This pillar
represents the measure of the quality of the country’s human capital, with special
attention paid to the science and technology sector, the level of tertiary education
and life-long learning. The increase in creativity level by 1 point was reflected in
the growth of economic cohesion by 0.171 (ceteris paribus). The other pillars did
not show any statistically significant relations. All time effects were statistically
significant.
The values of F statistics amounting to 517 confirm that including αi
individual effects in the model is fully justified, since they improve estimation
results as statistically significant. That means that major differences in economic
cohesion between countries were observed. The value of determination coefficient
informs that almost 98.8% of economic cohesion variability was explained by the
model with dummy variable.
Table 2. The results of model estimations of economic cohesion and smart
growth for 27 UE countries in the period of 2002-2011
Specification
AGC
0.171* [0.037]
AGSS
-
AGI
-
2002
0.156***
2003-2002
0.004***
2004-2002
0.015***
2005-2002
0.027***
2006-2002
0.048***
2007-2002
0.071***
2008-2002
0.069***
2009-2002
0.037***
2010-2002
0.051***
2011-2002
0.059***
R2
0.988
Test F (p-value)
516.9 (0.000)
The Akaike information criterion
-1330.8
*** significant at the level of 0.001, ** significant at the level of 0.05, * significant at the
level of 0.1. Arellano robust standard error HAC is quoted in parentheses [].
Source: Authors’ estimations in GRETL programme.
The attempt to describe (by applying econometric models) the relationships
between smart growth and social cohesion expressed in terms of employment
rates proved to be a considerable challenge.
) , , ,,,( ti, itititititECON AGIAGCAGSSAM
260 B. Bal-Domańska, E. Sobczak: On the relationships between …
The main reson for this is the diverse nature of growth processes in each of
the countries, particularly in the years after the crisis of 2008. Consequently, the
attempt to apply the pillars concept in order to describe social cohesion failed.
Figure 3 presents the changes of the employment rate AGMEMPL,it.
Figure 3. Values of the employment rate (EM) as a social cohesion measure of
the EU countries in the period of 2002-2011
Source: Authors’ work in STATA program.
As can be seen, the run (distribution) of indicators differed among the studied
countries in the period of 2002-2011. Taking into account the values of the
employment rate, three main types of run can be identified:
- increase - this tendency was true for the employment rate in 5 countries:
Austria, Poland, Germany, Malta and Belgium.
- hill - until 2008 an increase in the indicator was observed (sometimes very
explicit, e.g. in Spain, Estonia, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Ireland
and Greece). Later a significant decline was observed.
- the third type referrs to the absence of changes (stable) - in that case changes
are irrelevant and oscillate around a particular level. 10 such countries were
identified.
It is an approximate division.
The situation was different during the analysis of smart growth pillars. In
terms of creativity an increase was observed for the majority of countries. Only in
few of them the changes smaller than 10% of AGC were recorded.
STATISTICS IN TRANSITION new series, June 2016
261
The level of innovativeness was constant, or increased in most countries. A
decrease of over 10% of AGI was observed in the United Kingdom, Hungary,
Cyprus and Bulgaria.
Looking at the smart specialization factor the situation improved in 7
countries (Czech Republic, Greece, Cyprus, Luxemburg, Portugal, Slovenia and
Slovakia), whereas in another group of 7 countries (Denmark, Estonia, Ireland,
Malta, Romania, Sweeden and United Kingdom) a decline in the value of AGSS
was observed in the last assessment period compared to the initial one. In the
remaining countries the value of AGSS remained at a relatively constant level.
The models for clusters of countries analysed in terms of the employment rate
and smart growth pillars allowed for the identification of the following
statistically significant relations (Table 3).
Table 3. The results of model estimations for the employment rate and smart
growth pillars regarding clusters of the EU countries in the period of
2002-2011
Specification
Increase
Hill
Stable
AGC
-
-1.212** [0.594]
0.386*** [0.060]
AGSS
0.791***[0.285]
-
-0.358** [0.147]
AGI
-
-
-
2002
-0.1099
0.8835***
0.4280***
2003-2002
0.0039***
0.0155***
0.0075
2004-2002
0.0093
0.0361***
0.0137
2005-2002
0.0069***
0.0570***
0.0120
2006-2002
0.0157***
0.0656***
0.0142
2007-2002
0.0192***
0.0789***
0.0112***
2008-2002
0.0334***
0.0928***
0.0178*
2009-2002
0.0376***
0.1050**
0.0229
2010-2002
0.0331***
0.1079
0.0191**
2011-2002
0.0407***
0.1208
0.0199**
R2
0.977
0.899
0.989
Test F (p-value)
277.10 (0.000)
44.5 (0.000)
275.4 (0.000)
The Akaike
information criterion
-155.8
-275.9
-416.3
Designation as in Table 2.
Source: Authors’ estimations in GRETL program.
262 B. Bal-Domańska, E. Sobczak: On the relationships between …
For the “increase” class, a statistically significant relation (at the level of
0.001) related to smart specialization pillar was identified. A significance increase
in employment in technology and knowledge-intensive sectors by unit was related
to the increase in total employment rate by 0.791 (ceteris paribus).
In the case of the “hill” class, the relation between countries and creativity
was negative, which suggests that despite the increase in the creativity level
(observed for the majority of countries) the employment rate declined. It was
influenced by other factors not included in the model. The employment rate did
not depend on the level of innovativeness and smart specialization in a given
country. The absence of statistically significant time effects for the years 2010-
2011 indicates the trend breakdown regarding the employment rate in the period
of crisis.
The role of employment in technology and knowledge-intensive sectors had a
negative effect on the total employment rate in the “stable” class. Expanding the
role of employment in the medium and high-tech manufacturing sector and, at the
same time, the knowledge-intensive sector by unit reduces the employment rate
by 0.358 (ceteris paribus). The negative sign of the parameter estimate indicates
that changes in the employment rate resulted in changes in the employment
structure in sectors other than knowledge. At the same time changes in the level
of creativity were consistent with changes in the employment rate of 0.386
(ceteris paribus).
4. Conclusions
As a result of the research conducted by applying econometric tools the
following conclusions for the EU regions in the period of 2002-2011 were drawn:
A statistically significant relationship between the level of economic cohesion
and the creativity level of the EU countries was confirmed. Enhancing human
capital potentially favours a higher level of economic cohesion.
It was not possible to identify (at a country level) statistically significant
relationships for the two remaining pillars of smart growth: smart
specialization and innovation.
It was also not possible to identify any statistically significant connections
between smart growth and social cohesion (employment). This might be due to
the diverse and complex nature of links connecting these phenomena among
the EU countries in the studied years.
Within the clusters of countries, specified in terms of the employment rate,
statistically significant relationships were identified for the chosen smart
growth pillars. An increase in the employment rate (in the “increase clusters”)
was related to the increasing role of employment in smart specialization
sectors. Simultaneously, the countries from this cluster demonstrated the
highest resilience against the consequences of the crisis manifested in the form
of a decline in the employment rate.
STATISTICS IN TRANSITION new series, June 2016
263
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