Abstract

Supplementary Information for the Technical Report ”Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector”, published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017
Global Energy System Based on
100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector:
Norway
Study funded by the
German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and
Stiftung Mercator GmbH
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LUT Energy System Model
The technologies applied for the energy system optimisation include those for electricity
generation, energy storage and electricity transmission
The model is applied at full hourly resolution for an entire year
Real weather data are used for the solar, wind and hydro resources
The LUT model is in 2017 the only one run at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale
The LUT model will be expanded to all energy sectors for a follow-up study
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Norway - Overview
Norway is considered as an isolated power system
The power system is dominated by hydropower
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Norway - Power Plant Infrastructure
Key insights:
Historically, a significant share of hydropower in
the generation mix is observed
In recent times, RE has seen significant growth in
the share of installed capacity, particularly
hydropower and wind
source:
Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural
changes of global power generation capacity
towards sustainability and the risk of stranded
investments supported by a sustainability
indicator; J of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384
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Norway (Solar, Wind)
Wind generation profile
Aggregated wind feed-in profile computed
using the weighed average rule
Solar PV generation profile
Aggregated PV feed-in profile computed using
the weighed average rule
Key insights:
Wind: Excellent wind conditions especially in winter time, seasonal variation and overall
distribution is uneven
Solar PV: Good PV availability during the summer period
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Norway - Full Load Hours
Key insights:
Wind: Very high wind FLH and excellent resource availability, but distribution is uneven
across the country
Solar PV: Moderate PV conditions
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Hourly Resolved and Long-term Demand
Key insights:
The average compound annual growth rate of electricity demand of about 1.1% in the energy transition
period is assumed
The population of Norway is expected to rise from 5.2 to 6.7 million, while the average per capita electricity
demand rises from 23.5 to 27.2 MWh
The electricity demand is assumed to increase from 122 TWh in 2015 to around 181 TWh in the year 2050
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Energy Transition in Capacity and Generation
Electricity Generation
Installed Capacity
Key insights:
Hydropower drives most of the system, while solar
PV and wind complement
Strong influence of hydropower is noticed, due to
the historically installed capacity, very long lifetime
of plants and excellent resource conditions
Wind, solar PV and bioenergy provide flexibility and
supply security in the power system
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Storage Requirements
Key insights:
Batteries are the most important supporting
technology for solar PV, in particular for prosumers
A significant share of gas storage is installed to
provide seasonal storage
Gas storage dominates the capacities, which is
used almost entirely for bio-methane, which is not
accounted in the storage output diagrams but as
bioenergy generation
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Storage Operation Modes (2050)
Battery 365 x 24 Gas 365 x 24
Hydro reservoirs 365 x
24 (if applicable)
Key insights:
Battery storage balances on a daily basis
Gas storage reacts in a very flexible way
Hydro reservoirs provide complementarity with
solar and wind but are also used as seasonal
storage
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Electricity System Cost during Transition
Key insights:
The power system LCOE decline from 46.1 €/MWh to 41.3
/MWh from 2015 to 2050, including all generation,
storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs
Beyond 2030 the LCOE further declines to 41.3 €/MWh by
2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition
result in a reduction of energy costs
After an initial increase, the investment requirements
decline after 2030 to stabilise between 2035 to 2050
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CO2Emissions Reduction
Key insights:
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 3 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, while the total LCOE of the
power system declines
GHG emissions decline as fossil fueled power plants are eliminated from the system
Rapid decarbonisation of the power system, result in zero GHG emissions from 2020 onwards
The results also indicate that a 100% RE based energy system is much more efficient in comparison to
the current energy system
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Norway can achieve 100% RE and zero GHG emissions power system by 2020
The LCOE obtained for a fully sustainable energy system is 41.3 €/MWh by 2050
Hydropower emerges as the most prominent electricity supply source with around
60% of the total electricity supply by 2050
Solar PV and wind contribute 20% and 19% of the total electricity supply in 2050,
respectively
Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with 98% of total storage output
Cost of storage contributes 14% to the total energy system LCOE,
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 3 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050
A 100% RE system is more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil based option
Summary I Energy Transition
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Existing RE technologies can generate sufficient energy to cover all electricity demand for the
year 2050
Total LCOE average is around 41.3 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050 (including curtailment, storage
and some grid costs), compared to the total LCOE of 46.1 €/MWh in 2015
main RE sources contribute to the total electricity supply in 2050 as follows:
60% hydropower
20% solar PV
19% wind energy
1% bioenergy
Hydropower is the most relevant energy technologies for the transition
Balancing effects throughout the year, resulting in less overall variability
Seasonal variation and excellent resource conditions are the key reasonsfor the importance
of wind energy
Other RE resources can provide further flexibility and supply security to the power system
Summary II Energy System 2050
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Further Findings
Results for entire Europe are available:
Europe http://bit.ly/2zonZ6a
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financing of Stiftung Mercator GmbH
and Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt.
Further information and all publications at:
www.energywatchgroup.org
www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer
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