Global 100% RE System: Europe - Czech Republic, Slovakia

Abstract

Supplementary Information for the Technical Report ”Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector”, published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017

Full text

Global Energy System Based on
100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector:
Czech Republic, Slovakia
Study funded by the
German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and
Stiftung Mercator GmbH

2Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Czech Republic, Slovakia
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LUT Energy System Model
The technologies applied for the energy system optimisation include those for electricity
generation, energy storage and electricity transmission
The model is applied at full hourly resolution for an entire year
Real weather data are used for the solar, wind and hydro resources
The LUT model is in 2017 the only one run at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale
The LUT model will be expanded to all energy sectors for a follow-up study

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Czech Republic, Slovakia - Overview
Czech Republic and Slovakia were merged into a single region for this energy transition
analysis
The power system is dominated by fossil fuel and nuclear power plants

4Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Czech Republic, Slovakia
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Czech Republic, Slovakia –
Power Plant Infrastructure
Key insights:
Significant share of nuclear and coal power plants in
the generation mix is observed
RE has seen significant growth in the share of
installed capacity in recent years, particulary solar PV
and bioenergy
source:
Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural
changes of global power generation capacity
towards sustainability and the risk of stranded
investments supported by a sustainability
indicator; J of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384

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Czech Republic, Slovakia (Solar, Wind)
Wind generation profile
Aggregated wind feed-in profile computed
using the weighed average rule
Solar PV generation profile
Aggregated PV feed-in profile computed using
the weighed average rule
Key insights:
Wind: Seasonal variation and overall distribution is uneven, high generation at the beginning
and end of the year
Solar PV: Very low PV availability during the winter time

6Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Czech Republic, Slovakia
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Czech Republic, Slovakia - Full Load Hours
Key insights:
Wind: Good resource conditions, particularly in Czech Republic. Distribution is uneven in the
region
Solar PV: Moderate PV conditions in the region

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Hourly Resolved and Long-term Demand
Key insights:
The average compound annual growth rate of electricity demand of about 1.0% in the energy transition
period is assumed
The population of Czech Republic and Slovakia is expected to decline slightly from 15.9 to 14.9 million,
while the average per capita electricity demand rises from 6.3 to 9.4 MWh
The electricity demand is assumed to increase from 100 TWh in 2015 to around 139 TWh in the year 2050

8Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Czech Republic, Slovakia
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Energy Transition in Capacity and Generation
Electricity GenerationInstalled Capacity
Key insights:
Solar PV, wind and bioenergy drive most of the
system, while hydropower complements
The power system reveals an excellent RE
resource complementarity by 2050
Solar PV, wind and bioenergy supply shares
contribute 43%, 29% and 18% to the total
electricity generation in 2050, respectively

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Storage Requirements
Key insights:
Batteries are the most important supporting
technology for solar PV
A significant share of gas storage is installed to
provide seasonal storage
Significant share of prosumers is noticed in the power
system
Gas storage dominates the capacities, which is used
almost entirely for bio-methane, which is not
accounted in the storage output diagrams but as
bioenergy generation

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Storage Operation Modes (2050)
Battery 365 x 24 Gas 365 x 24
Hydro reservoirs 365 x
24 (if applicable)
Key insights:
Battery storage balances on a daily basis
Gas storage reacts in a very flexible way
Hydro reservoirs provide complementarity with
solar and wind but are also used as seasonal
storage

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Electricity System Cost during Transition
Key insights:
The power system LCOE decline from 80.2 €/MWh to 58.5
€/MWh from 2015 to 2050, including all generation,
storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs
Beyond 2030 the LCOE further declines to 58.5 €/MWh by
2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition
result in a reduction of energy costs
After an initial increase, the investment requirements
stabilise around 2025 to 2035, decline for early 2040s and
rise again towards 2050

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CO2Emissions Reduction
Key insights:
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 35 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, while the total LCOE of
the power system declines
GHG emissions decline as fossil fueled power plants are eliminated from the system
What is even more important is the observation that a deep decarbonisation of 82% to 1.2 MtCO2eq by
2035 and 84% to 0.2 MtCO2eq by 2040 is possible, which is well before 2050, while gradually lowering the
energy system LCOE
The results also indicate that a 100% RE based energy system is much more efficient in comparison to
the current energy system

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Czech Republic and Slovakia can achieve 100% RE and zero GHG emissions power
system by 2050
The LCOE obtained for a fully sustainable energy system is 58.5 €/MWh by 2050
Solar PV emerges as the most prominent electricity supply source with around 43%
of the total electricity supply by 2050
Wind and bioenergy contributes 29% and 18% to the total electricity supply in 2050,
respectively
Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with 97% of total storage output
Cost of storage contributes substantially to the total energy system LCOE, which is
31%
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 35 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050
A 100% RE system is more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil based option
Summary I –Energy Transition

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Existing RE technologies can generate sufficient energy to cover all electricity demand for the
year 2050
Total LCOE average is around 58.5 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050 (including curtailment, storage
and some grid costs), compared to the total LCOE of 80.2 €/MWh in 2015
main RE sources contribute to the total electricity supply in 2050 as follows:
43% solar PV
29% wind energy
18% bioenergy
3% hydropower
Solar PV and wind are the most relevant energy technologies for the transition
Seasonal variation and good resource conditions are the key reasonsfor the importance of
wind energy
Summary II –Energy System 2050

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Further Findings
Results for entire Europe are available:
Europe http://bit.ly/2zonZ6a

The authors gratefully acknowledge the financing of Stiftung Mercator GmbH
and Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt.
Further information and all publications at:
www.energywatchgroup.org
www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer