Global 100% RE System: Europe - France

Abstract

Supplementary Information for the Technical Report ”Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector”, published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017

Full text

Global Energy System Based on
100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector:
France, Monaco, Andorra
Study funded by the
German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and
Stiftung Mercator GmbH

2Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: France, Monaco, Andorra
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LUT Energy System Model
The technologies applied for the energy system optimisation include those for electricity
generation, energy storage and electricity transmission
The model is applied at full hourly resolution for an entire year
Real weather data are used for the solar, wind and hydro resources
The LUT model is in 2017 the only one run at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale
The LUT model will be expanded to all energy sectors for a follow-up study

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France, Monaco, Andorra - Overview
France, Monaco and Andorra were merged into a single region for this energy transition
analysis
The power system is dominated by nuclear power plants

4Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: France, Monaco, Andorra
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France, Monaco, Andorra –
Power Plant Infrastructure
Key insights:
Historically, a significant share of nuclear power plants
in the generation mix is observed
In recent times, RE has seen significant growth in the
share of installed capacity, particularly wind and solar
PV
source:
Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural
changes of global power generation capacity
towards sustainability and the risk of stranded
investments supported by a sustainability
indicator; J of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384

5Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: France, Monaco, Andorra
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France, Monaco, Andorra (Solar, Wind)
Wind generation profile
Aggregated wind feed-in profile computed
using the weighed average rule
Solar PV generation profile
Aggregated PV feed-in profile computed using
the weighed average rule
Key insights:
Wind: Excellent wind conditions, especially in winter period and overall distribution is uneven
Solar PV: High PV generation in summer, resource condition is lower in winter

6Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: France, Monaco, Andorra
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France, Monaco, Andorra - Full Load Hours
Key insights:
Wind: Excellent resource availability, distribution is uneven throughout the region
Solar PV: Good PV conditions in the entire region

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Hourly Resolved and Long-term Demand
Key insights:
The average compound annual growth rate of electricity generation of about 0.5% in the energy transition
period is assumed
The population of France, Monaco and Andorra is expected to increase from 64.3 to 71.1 million, while the
average per capita electricity demand rises from 8.7 to 9.4 MWh
The electricity demand is assumed to increase from 563 TWh in 2015 to around 669 TWh in the year 2050

8Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: France, Monaco, Andorra
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Energy Transition in Capacity and Generation
Electricity GenerationInstalled Capacity
Key insights:
Wind and solar PV increasingly drives most of the
system, while hydropower and bioenergy
complement
Wind and solar PV supply shares increase from 4%
and 3% in 2020 to about 38% and 39% in 2050,
respectively, becoming the least cost energy sources
By 2050, the power system reveals an excellent RE
resource complementarity

9Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: France, Monaco, Andorra
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Storage Requirements
Key insights:
Batteries are the most important supporting
technology for solar PV
A significant share of gas storage is installed to
provide seasonal storage
Significant share of prosumers is noticed in the power
system
Gas storage dominates the capacities which is entirely
used for bio-methane, which is not accounted in the
storage output diagrams but as bioenergy generation

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Storage Operation Modes (2050)
Battery 365 x 24 Gas 365 x 24
Hydro reservoirs 365 x
24 (if applicable)
Key insights:
Battery storage balances on a daily basis
Gas storage reacts in a very flexible way
Hydro reservoirs provide complementarity with
solar and wind but are also used as seasonal
storage

11 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: France, Monaco, Andorra
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Electricity System Cost during Transition
Key insights:
The power system LCOE decline from 69.2 €/MWh to 50.9
€/MWh from 2015 to 2050, including all generation,
storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs
Beyond 2030 the LCOE further declines to 50.9 €/MWh by
2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition
result in a reduction of energy costs
After an initial increase, the investment requirements
decline after 2035 continuously till 2050

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CO2Emissions Reduction
Key insights:
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 26 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, while the total LCOE of
the power system declines
GHG emissions decline as fossil fueled power plants are eliminated from the system
Rapid decarbonisation of the power system, GHG emission is zero from 2020 onwards
The results also indicate that a 100% RE based energy system is much more efficient in comparison to
the current energy system

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France, Monaco and Andorra can achieve 100% RE and zero GHG emissions power
system by 2050
The LCOE obtained for a fully sustainable energy system is 50.9 €/MWh by 2050
Wind and solar PV emerges as the most prominent electricity supply source with
around 38% and 39% of the total electricity supply by 2050, respectively
Hydropower and bioenergy contributes 8% and 7% to the total electricity supply in
2050, respectively
Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with 98% of total storage output
Cost of storage contributes substantially to the total energy system LCOE, which is
31%
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 26 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050
A 100% RE system is more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil based option
Summary I –Energy Transition

14 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: France, Monaco, Andorra
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Existing RE technologies can generate sufficient energy to cover all electricity demand for the
year 2050
Total LCOE average is around 50.9 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050 (including curtailment, storage
and some grid costs), compared to the total LCOE of 69.2 €/MWh in 2015
main RE sources contribute to the total electricity supply in 2050 as follows:
39% solar PV
38% wind energy
8% hydropower
7% bioenergy
Wind and solar PV are the most relevant energy technologies for the transition
Seasonal variation and excellent resource conditions are the key reasonsfor the importance
of wind energy
Hydropower, bioenergy and other RE resources can provide further flexibility and energy
security in the power system
Summary II –Energy System 2050

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Further Findings
Results for entire Europe are available:
Europe http://bit.ly/2zonZ6a

The authors gratefully acknowledge the financing of Stiftung Mercator GmbH
and Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt.
Further information and all publications at:
www.energywatchgroup.org
www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer