Global 100% RE System: Europe - Austria, Hungary

Abstract

Supplementary Information for the Technical Report ”Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector”, published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017

Full text

Global Energy System Based on
100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector:
Austria, Hungary
Study funded by the
German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and
Stiftung Mercator GmbH

2Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Austria and Hungary
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LUT Energy System Model
The technologies applied for the energy system optimisation include those for electricity
generation, energy storage and electricity transmission
The model is applied at full hourly resolution for an entire year
Real weather data are used for the solar, wind and hydro resources
The LUT model is in 2017 the only one run at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale
The LUT model will be expanded to all energy sectors for a follow-up study

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Austria, Hungary - Overview
Austria and Hungary were merged into a single region for this energy transition study
The power system is dominated by hydropower and fossil fuel power plants

4Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Austria and Hungary
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Austria, Hungary - Power Plant Infrastructure
Key insights:
Historically, a significant share of hydropower and
gas power plants in the generation mix is noticed
In recent times, RE has seen significant growth in
the share of installed capacity
source:
Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural
changes of global power generation capacity
towards sustainability and the risk of stranded
investments supported by a sustainability
indicator; J of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384

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Austria, Hungary - (Solar, Wind)
Wind generation profile
Aggregated wind feed-in profile computed
using the weighed average rule
Solar PV generation profile
Aggregated PV feed-in profile computed using
the weighed average rule
Key insights:
Wind: Good resource availability, particularly during the winter, seasonal variation and overall
distribution is uneven
PV: Good PV availability during the summer time, but low during the winter

6Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Austria and Hungary
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Austria, Hungary - Full Load Hours
Key insights for wind:
Some parts show good wind
resources
Distribution of resources is
uneven
Key insights for solar PV:
Moderate solar resource
availability
Distribution of resource is even
across the region

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Hourly Resolved and Long-term Demand
Key insights:
The average compound annual growth rate of electricity demand of about 0.7% in the energy transition
period is assumed
The population of Austria and Hungary is expected to decline slightly from 18.4 to 17.2 million, while the
average per capita electricity demand rises from 5.5 to 7.5 MWh
The electricity demand is assumed to increase from 100 TWh in 2015 to around 129 TWh in the year 2050

8Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Austria and Hungary
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Energy Transition in Capacity and Generation
Electricity Generation
Installed Capacity
Key insights:
Solar PV and hydropower drive most of the
system, while wind and bioenergy complement
Wind and bioenergy provide flexibility and security
in the power system
Strong influence of hydropower is noticed
throughout the transition period
The power system reveals an excellent RE
resource complementarity in 2050

9Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Austria and Hungary
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Storage Requirements
Key insights:
Batteries are the most important supporting
technology for solar PV
A significant share of gas storage is installed to
provide seasonal storage
Significant share of prosumers is noticed in the
power system
Gas storage dominates the capacities, which is
used only for bio-methane (100%), which is not
accounted in the storage output diagrams but as
bioenergy generation

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Storage Operation Modes (2050)
Battery 365 x 24 Gas 365 x 24
Hydro reservoirs 365 x
24 (if applicable)
Key insights:
Battery storage balances on a daily basis
Gas storage reacts in a very flexible way
Hydro reservoirs provide complementarity with
solar and wind but are also used as seasonal
storage

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Electricity System Cost during Transition
Key insights:
The power system LCOE decline from 58.3 €/MWh to 50.1
€/MWh from 2015 to 2050, including all generation,
storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs
Beyond 2030 the LCOE further declines to 50.1 €/MWh by
2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition
result in a reduction of energy costs
After an initial increase, the investment requirements
decline after 2030

12 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Austria and Hungary
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CO2Emissions Reduction
Key insights:
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 20 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, while the total LCOE of
the power system declines
GHG emissions decline as fossil fueled power plants are eliminated from the system
Rapid decarbonisation of the power system, results in zero GHG emissions by 2025 onwards
The results also indicate that a 100% RE based energy system is much more efficient in comparison to
the current energy system

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Austria and Hungary can reach 100% RE and zero GHG emissions by 2050
The LCOE obtained for a fully sustainable energy system is 50.1 €/MWh by 2050
Solar PV and hydropower emerges as the most prominent electricity supply source
contributing 40% each to the total electricity supply in 2050
Wind and bioenergy serve as balancing resources in the power system
Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with 97% of total storage output
Cost of storage contributes substantially to the total energy system LCOE, which is
32%
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 20 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050
A 100% RE system is more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil based option
Summary I –Energy Transition

14 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Austria and Hungary
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Existing RE technologies can generate sufficient energy to cover all electricity demand for
the year 2050
Total LCOE average is around 50.1 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050 (including curtailment,
storage and some grid costs), compared to the total LCOE of 58.3 €/MWh in 2015
main RE sources contribute to the total electricity supply in 2050 as follows:
40% solar PV
40% hydropower
10% bioenergy
1% wind energy
Solar PV and hydropower are the most relevant energy technologies for the transition
Significant share of hydropower by 2050, due to the historically installed capacity, very long
lifetime of plants and excellent resource conditions
Seasonal variation is the key reason for the importance of wind energy
Bioenergy and other RE resources provide flexibility and security in the power system
Summary II –Energy System 2050

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Further Findings
Results for entire Europe are available:
Europe http://bit.ly/2zonZ6a

The authors gratefully acknowledge the financing of Stiftung Mercator GmbH
and Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt.
Further information and all publications at:
www.energywatchgroup.org
www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer