Global 100% RE System: Europe

Abstract

Supplementary Information for the Technical Report ”Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector”, published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017

Full text

Global Energy System Based on
100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector:
Europe
Study funded by the
German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and
Stiftung Mercator GmbH

2Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
LUT Energy System Model
The technologies applied for the energy system optimisation include those for electricity
generation, energy storage and electricity transmission
The model is applied at full hourly resolution for an entire year
Real weather data are used for the solar, wind and hydro resources
The LUT model is in 2017 the only one run at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale
The LUT model will be expanded to all energy sectors for a follow-up study

3Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Europe - Overview
Europe is structured into 20 regions
Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Baltic (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania),
Germany, Poland, CRS (Czech Republic, Slovakia), AUH (Austria, Hungary), CH (Switzerland, Liechtenstein)
Iberia (Portugal, Spain, Gibraltar), France (France, Monaco, Andorra), Italy (Italy, San Marino, Vatican)
BRI (United Kingdom, Ireland, Isle of Man, Guernsey, Jersey), BENELUX (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg)
BKN-W (Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Hertzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania),
UA (Ukraine, Moldova), BKN-E (Romania, Bulgaria, Greece), TR (Turkey, Cyprus)

4Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Europe - Power Plant Infrastructure
Key insights:
Historically, a significant share of fossil powered
plants in the generation mix is observed
In recent times, RE has seen significant growth in the
share of installed capacity
source:
Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural
changes of global power generation capacity
towards sustainability and the risk of stranded
investments supported by a sustainability
indicator; J of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384

5Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Europe (Solar, Wind)
Wind generation profile
European aggregated wind feed-in profile
computed using the weighed average rule
Solar PV generation profile
European aggregated PV feed-in profile
computed using the weighed average rule
Key insights:
Wind: Seasonal variation and overall distribution is uneven
PV: Seasonal and diurnal variation of the resource in Europe
Wind plus PV: balancing effect throughout the year, resulting in less overall variability

6Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Europe - Full Load Hours
Key insights:
Wind: More consistent winds in north, Atlantic and Baltic Sea regions
PV: The Mediterranean and Balkan regions are rich in solar irradiation
Wind plus PV: geographic complementarity can be observed

7Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Hourly Resolved and Long-term Demand
Key insights:
The average compound annual growth rate of electricity demand of about 0.8% in the energy transition
period is assumed, compared to 0.3% - 0.6% assumed by IEA; growth assumed to be higher in some
countries than in others
The European population is expected to remain stable between 664 to 666 million, while the average per
capita electricity demand rises from 6.0 to 8.0 MWh
The electricity demand is assumed to increase from 4000 TWh in 2015 to around 5300 TWh in the year 2050

8Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Energy Transition in Capacity and Generation
Electricity Generation
Installed Capacity
Key insights:
Solar PV and wind energy increasingly drives
most of the system, while hydropower and
bioenergy complements
Solar PV supply share increases from 25% in 2030
to about 44% in 2050, becoming the least cost
energy source

9Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Storage Requirements
Key insights:
Batteries are the most important supporting
technology for solar PV
A significant share of gas storage is installed to
provide seasonal storage
Gas storage dominates the capacities, which is
used for SNG (10%) and bio-methane (90%), which
is not accounted in the storage output diagrams
but as bioenergy generation

10 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Storage Operation Modes (2050)
Battery 365 x 24 Gas 365 x 24
Hydro reservoirs 365 x
24 (if applicable)
Key insights:
Battery storage balances on a daily basis
Gas storage reacts in a very flexible way
Hydro reservoirs provide complementarity with
solar and wind but are also used as seasonal
storage

11 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Electricity System Cost during Transition
Key insights:
The power system LCOE decline from 67.3 €/MWh to 55.5
€/MWh from 2015 to 2050, including all generation,
storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs
Beyond 2030 the LCOE further declines to 55.5 €/MWh by
2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition
result in a reduction of energy costs
After an initial increase, the investment requirements
continuously decline after 2025

12 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
CO2Emissions Reduction
Key insights:
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 1200 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, while the total LCOE of
the power system declines
GHG emissions decline as fossil fueled power plants are eliminated from the system
What is even more important is the observation that a deep decarbonisation of 95% to 0.08 GtCO2eq by
2035 and 98% to 0.02 GtCO2eq by 2040 is possible, which is well before 2050, while gradually lowering the
energy system LCOE
The results also indicate that a 100% RE based energy system is much more efficient in comparison to
the current energy system

13 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Major RE Supply Shares in 2050
Key insights:
Solar PV dominates the total generation.
supply shares in 2050
Solar PV at about 44% as the least cost source
Wind energy at about 30%
Hydropower at about 11%

14 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Major RE Capacities in 2050
Key insights:
Solar PV dominates the total generation capacity.
Capacity shares in 2050
Solar PV: 1956 GW
Wind energy: 560 GW
Hydropower: 224 GW

15 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Storage Supply Shares in 2050
Key insights:
Battery storage mainly plays a role in providing diurnal storage with around 16.4% of the total supply
Gas storage mainly plays a role in providing seasonal storage with just 0.6% of total supply
Prosumers play a significant role and hence a large portion of batteries can be observed in 2050, also
with low costs of solar PV and batteries

16 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Losses (Curtailment, Storage, Grids) in 2050
Key insights:
The total losses in a 100% RE based electricity system
in 2050 are just around 16.2% of the total generation
Curtailment has a share of 7.1%, storage contributes
5.9% and grid losses amount to 3.2%
A renewable based electricity system is significantly
more efficient in comparison to the current system

17 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Total Cost and Share of Primary Generation
Key insights:
Total LCOE by 2050 is around 55.5 €/MWh (including
generation, storage, curtailment and some grid costs),
the range for 75% of regional power demand is 47.6 –
63.7 €/MWh
A 64% ratio of the primary generation cost to the total
LCOE can be observed, in a range of 57.2% - 72.7% for
75% of regional power demand
Cost of storage contributes substantially to the total
energy system LCOE, within a range of 11.3 –22.2
€/MWh for 75% of regional power demand

18 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Europe can reach 100% RE and zero GHG emissions by 2050
The LCOE obtained for a fully sustainable energy system for Europe is 55.5 €/MWh
by 2050
Solar PV emerges as the most prominent electricity supply source with around 44%
of the total electricity supply by 2050
Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with 93% of total storage output
Cost of storage contributes substantially to the total energy system LCOE, which is
30%
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 1200 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050
A 100% RE system is more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil based option
Summary I –Energy Transition

19 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Existing RE technologies can generate sufficient energy to cover all electricity demand for
the year 2050
Total LCOE average is around 55.5 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050 (including curtailment,
storage and some grid costs), compared to the total LCOE of 67.3 €/MWh in 2015
main RE sources contribute to the total electricity supply in 2050 as follows:
44% solar PV
30% wind energy
11% hydropower
5% bioenergy
Almost all Sun Belt countries will have very high solar PV shares
Solar PV and batteries are the most relevant energy technologies for the transition
Seasonal variation is the key reason for the importance of wind energy
An important Pan-European balancing effect may exist between wind-rich northern regions
and sun-rich southern regions
Summary II –Energy System 2050

20 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Europe
more information ►office@energywatchgroup.org, manish.thulasi.ram@lut.fi
Further Findings
Results for all countries in Europe and a Global Overview are available:
Iceland http://bit.ly/2z3VffT Global Overview http://bit.ly/2gQIY6p
Norway http://bit.ly/2ylpMc9
Denmark http://bit.ly/2yl3189 full study http://bit.ly/2hU4Bn9
Sweden http://bit.ly/2iSDigs
Finland http://bit.ly/2z5edmo
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania http://bit.ly/2xLPnXg
Germany http://bit.ly/2ilWKhJ
Poland http://bit.ly/2xMGXPu
Czech Republic, Slovakia http://bit.ly/2zYxlSx
Austria, Hungary http://bit.ly/2zbWonZ
Switzerland, Liechtenstein http://bit.ly/2ylSObu
Portugal, Spain, Gibraltar http://bit.ly/2iTLRYr
France http://bit.ly/2ylKcBG
Italy, San Marino, Vatican http://bit.ly/2zoCerI
Ireland, United Kingdom http://bit.ly/2imJQQE
Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg http://bit.ly/2gUzHdy
Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro,
Macedonia, Albania http://bit.ly/2z6t4j6
Ukraine, Moldova http://bit.ly/2h5W5o7
Romania, Bulgaria, Greece http://bit.ly/2xKNryb
Turkey, Cyprus http://bit.ly/2gUt7Uc

Financing of Stiftung Mercator GmbH and Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt
is gratefully acknowledged.
Further information and all publications at:
full study http://bit.ly/2hU4Bn9
www.energywatchgroup.org
www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer