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Abstract

Supplementary Information for the Technical Report ”Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector”, published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017
Global Energy System Based on
100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector:
Indonesia, Papua New Guinea
Study funded by the
German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and
Stiftung Mercator GmbH
2Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Indonesia, Papua New Guinea
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LUT Energy System Model
The technologies applied for the energy system optimisation include those for electricity
generation, energy storage and electricity transmission
The model is applied at full hourly resolution for an entire year
Real weather data are used for the solar, wind and hydro resources
The LUT model as of 2017 the only one run at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale
The LUT model will be expanded to all energy sectors for a follow-up study
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Indonesia, Papua New Guinea - Overview
Indonesia and Papua New Guinea were merged into a common set of 4 sub-regions, structured
into: Sumatra, Java and Timor Leste, East, Papua and Papua New Guinea
The current power system is dominated by fossil power plants
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Indonesia, Papua New Guinea
Power Plant Infrastructure
Key insights:
Historically, a significant share of fossil power plants
in the generation mix is observed
The share of fossil power plants has increased more
than RE capacity in recent years
source:
Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural
changes of global power generation capacity
towards sustainability and the risk of stranded
investments supported by a sustainability
indicator; J of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384
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Key insights:
Wind: Very low wind availability and overall uneven distribution
PV: Evenly distributed throughout the year with diurnal variation
Indonesia, Papua New Guinea (Solar, Wind)
Wind generation profile
Aggregated wind feed-in profile computed
using the weighed average rule
Solar PV generation profile
Aggregated PV feed-in profile computed using
the weighed average rule
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Indonesia, Papua New Guinea
Full Load Hours
Key insights for wind:
Very low resource conditions,
with exception of some parts
of Java Timor Leste and
Papua New Guinea
Overall resource availability is
rather low throughout the
country
Key insights for solar PV:
Good to very good PV resource
conditions
Rather evenly distributed
throughout the country
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Hourly Resolved and Long-term Demand
Key insights:
Electricity consumption annual growth rate of about 3.9% is assumed in the energy transition period
The population of Indonesia and Papua New Guinea is expected to grow from 264 to 360 million, while the
average per capita electricity demand rises from 0.9 to 2.4 MWh
The electricity demand is assumed to increase from 233 TWh in 2015 to around 853 TWh in the year 2050
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Energy Transition in Capacity and Generation
Electricity GenerationInstalled Capacity
Key insights:
Solar PV increasingly drives most of the system,
while bioenergy and hydropower complement
Solar PV supply share increases from 29% in 2025
to about 88% in 2050 becoming the least cost
energy source
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Storage Requirements
Key insights:
Batteries are the most important supporting
technology for solar PV
A significant share of gas storage is installed to
provide seasonal storage
Battery emerges the key technology with respect to
storage output
Gas storage dominates the capacities, which is
used for SNG (40%) and bio-methane (60%), which
is not accounted in the storage output diagrams but
as bioenergy generation
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Storage Operation Modes (2050)
Battery 365 x 24 Gas 365 x 24
Hydro reservoirs 365 x
24 (if applicable)
Key insights:
Battery storage balances on a daily basis
Gas storage reacts in a very flexible way
Hydro reservoirs provide complementarity with
solar and wind but is also used as seasonal
storage
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Electricity System Cost during Transition
Key insights:
The power system LCOE decline from 81.6 €/MWh to 50.6
/MWh from 2015 to 2050, including all generation,
storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs
Beyond 2030 the LCOE further declines to 50.6 €/MWh by
2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition
result in reduction of energy costs
After an initial increase, the investment requirements
decline after 2030 to raise again after 2040
12 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Indonesia, Papua New Guinea
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CO2Emissions Reduction
Key insights:
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 159 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, while the total LCOE of
the power system declines
GHG emissions decline as fossil fueled power plants are eliminated from the system.
What is even more important is the observation that a deep decarbonisation of 93% to 22 MtCO2eq by
2030 and 99% to 2 MtCO2eq by 2040 is possible, which is well by 2050, while gradually lowering the energy
system LCOE
The results also indicate that a 100% RE based energy system is much more efficient in comparison to
the current energy system
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100% RE and zero GHG emissions power system is achievable in Indonesia and
Papua New Guinea by 2050.
The LCOE obtained for a fully sustainable energy system is 50.6 €/MWh by 2050
Solar PV emerges as the most prominent electricity supply source with around 88%
of the total electricity supply by 2050
Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with 97% of total storage output
PV and battery storage goes hand in hand and cost decline during the energy
transition
Cost of storage contributes substantially to the total energy system LCOE, which is
41%
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 159 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050
A 100% RE system is more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil based option
Summary I Energy Transition
14 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Indonesia, Papua New Guinea
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Existing RE technologies can generate sufficient energy to cover all electricity demand for
the year 2050
Total LCOE average is around 50.6 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050 (including curtailment,
storage and some grid costs), compared to the total LCOE of 81.6 €/MWh in 2015
main RE sources contribute to the total electricity supply in 2050 as follows:
88% solar PV
6% geothermal
3% hydropower
3% bioenergy
Solar PV and batteries are the most relevant energy technologies for the transition
Sumatra exhibits a substantial geothermal energy potential for resource diversification
Summary II Energy System 2050
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Further Findings
Results for entire Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim are available:
Southeast Asia http://bit.ly/2A44Ao6
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financing of Stiftung Mercator GmbH
and Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt.
Further information and all publications at:
www.energywatchgroup.org
www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer
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