Abstract

Supplementary Information for the Technical Report ”Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector”, published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017
Global Energy System Based on
100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector:
China
Study funded by the
German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and
Stiftung Mercator GmbH
2Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: China
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LUT Energy System Model
The technologies applied for the energy system optimisation include those for electricity
generation, energy storage and electricity transmission
The model is applied at full hourly resolution for an entire year
Real weather data for the year 2005 are used for the solar, wind and hydro resources
The LUT model is in 2017 the only one run at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale
The LUT model will be expanded to all energy sectors for a follow-up study
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China - Overview
China is structured into 8 sub-regions: North-East, North, East, Central, South, Tibet, North-
West, Uigur
The power system is dominated by fossil power plants
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China - Power Plant Infrastructure
Key insights:
Historically, a significant share of coal power plants
in the generation mix is observed
Hydropower contributes the largest share of RE
capacity
Recent substantial growth in RE installed capacity
is observed
However, coal plant capacity increased more than
RE capacity from 2010 to 2014
source:
Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural
changes of global power generation capacity
towards sustainability and the risk of stranded
investments supported by a sustainability
indicator; J of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384
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China (Solar, Wind)
Key insights:
Wind: Stable wind generation throughout the year with lack of generation during the summer
Solar PV: More evenly distributed throughout the year and lower generation during the winter
Wind generation profile
Aggregated wind feed-in profile computed
using the weighed average rule
Solar PV generation profile
Aggregated PV feed-in profile computed using
the weighed average rule
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China - Full Load Hours
Key insights for solar PV:
Excellent PV potential in Tibet and
northern and western provinces
Moderate solar potential in the
major demand centers in the south
and east
Key insight for wind energy:
Perfect wind condition in Tibet and
Northeast of China
No good wind potential in South
and East China
Overall distribution is uneven
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Hourly Resolved and Long-term Demand
Key insights:
The average compound annual growth rate of electricity demand is assumed to be about 2.8% in the
energy transition period
The population in China is expected to slightly decline from 1376 to 1348 million, while the average per
capita electricity demand rises from 3.8 to 9.8 MWh
The total electricity demand is assumed to increase from 5290 TWh in 2015 to around 13220 TWh in the
year 2050
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Energy Transition in Capacity and Generation
Electricity Generation
Installed Capacity
Key insights:
Solar PV increasingly drives most of the system,
while wind energy and hydropower complements
Excellent resource complementarity is observed in
the power system
Solar PV supply share increases from more than
19% in 2025 to about 71% in 2050 becoming the
least cost energy source
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Storage Requirements
Key insights:
Batteries are the most important supporting
technology for solar PV, particularly for PV prosumers
A significant share of gas storage is installed to
provide seasonal storage
Regarding storage output, battery storage dominates
Gas storage dominates the capacities, which is used
for SNG (58%) and bio-methane (42%), which is not
accounted in the storage output diagrams but as
bioenergy generation
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Storage Operation Modes (2050)
Battery 365 x 24 Gas 365 x 24
Hydro reservoirs 365 x
24 (if applicable)
Key insights:
Battery storage balances on a daily basis
Gas storage reacts in a very flexible way
Hydro reservoirs provide complementarity with
solar and wind but is also used as seasonal
storage
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Electricity System Cost during Transition
Key insights:
The power system LCOE decline from 70.5 €/MWh to 54.0
/MWh from 2015 to 2050, including all generation,
storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs
Beyond 2030 the LCOE steadily declines to 54.0 €/MWh
by 2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition
result in reduction of energy costs
After an initial increase, the investment requirements
decline after 2030
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CO2Emissions Reduction
Key insights:
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 3185 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, while the total LCOE of
the power system declines
GHG emissions decline as fossil fueled power plant are eliminated from the system.
What is even more important is the observation that a deep decarbonisation of 95% to 246 MtCO2eq by
2030 and 98% to 39 MtCO2eq by 2040 is possible, which is well by 2050, while gradually lowering the
energy system LCOE
The results also indicate that a 100% RE based energy system is much more efficient in comparison to
the current energy system
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China can reach 100% RE and zero GHG emissions by 2050.
The LCOE obtained for a fully sustainable energy system is 54.0 €/MWh by 2050
Solar PV emerges as the most prominent electricity supply source with around 71%
of the total electricity supply by 2050
Wind is the second best RE resource contributing 18% to the total generation in
2050
Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with 98% of total storage output
Cost of storage contributes substantially to the total energy system LCOE, which is
29%
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 3185 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050
A 100% RE system is more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil based
option!
Summary I Energy Transition
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Existing RE technologies can generate sufficient energy to cover all electricity demand for
the year 2050
Total LCOE average is around 54.0 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050 (including curtailment,
storage and some grid costs), compared to the total LCOE of 70.5 €/MWh in 2015
main RE sources contribute to the total electricity supply in 2050 as follows:
71% solar PV
18% wind energy
9% hydropower
1% bioenergy
Solar PV and batteries are the most relevant energy technologies for the transition
Hydropower and other RE resource provides flexibility to the power system
Seasonal variation is the key reason for the importance of wind energy
Summary II Energy System 2050
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Further Findings
Results for entire Northeast Asia are available:
Northeast Asia http://bit.ly/2gRKghh
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financing of Stiftung Mercator GmbH
and Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt.
Further information and all publications at:
www.energywatchgroup.org
www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer
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