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Abstract

Supplementary Information for the Technical Report ”Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector”, published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017
Global Energy System Based on
100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector:
Turkmenistan
Study funded by the
German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) and
Stiftung Mercator GmbH
2Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Turkmenistan
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LUT Energy System Model
The technologies applied for the energy system optimisation include those for electricity
generation, energy storage and electricity transmission
The model is applied at full hourly resolution for an entire year
Real weather data are used for the solar, wind and hydro resources
The LUT model is in 2017 the only one run at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale
The LUT model will be expanded to all energy sectors for a follow-up study
3Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Turkmenistan
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Turkmenistan - Overview
Turkmenistan is taken as an isolated power system
The current power system is dominated by fossil gas
4Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Turkmenistan
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Turkmenistan - Power Plant Infrastructure
Key insights:
Historically, a significant share of fossil power plant in
the generation mix is observed
Hydropower dominates the share of RE capacities
Solar PV and wind is growing, but slowly
source:
Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural
changes of global power generation capacity
towards sustainability and the risk of stranded
investments supported by a sustainability
indicator; J of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384
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Turkmenistan (Solar, Wind)
Key insights:
Wind: Good resource availability, seasonal variability and overall distribution is rather even
Solar PV: seasonal and diurnal variation of resources in the region, solar PV availability
excellent during summer, but lower in winter time
Wind generation profile
Aggregated wind feed-in profile computed
using the weighed average rule
Solar PV generation profile
Aggregated PV feed-in profile computed using
the weighed average rule
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Turkmenistan - Full Load Hours
Key insights for solar PV:
Good to very good resource
availability
More evenly distributed across the
country
Key insights for wind:
Good wind resource availability
Distribution is uneven throughout
the country
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Hourly Resolved and Long-term Demand
Key insights:
Electricity consumption annual growth rate of about 1.4% is assumed for the energy transition period
The population in Turkmenistan is expected to increase from 5.4 to 6.6 million, while the average per
capita electricity demand rises from 2.1 to 2.7 MWh
The electricity demand is assumed to increase from 11 TWh in 2015 to around 17 TWh in the year 2050
8Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Turkmenistan
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Energy Transition in Capacity and Generation
Electricity Generation
Installed Capacity
Key insights:
Solar PV and wind energy drive most of the
system
Solar PV dominates total supply from 2030 till 2050
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Storage Requirements
Key insights:
Batteries are the most important supporting
technology for solar PV
A significant share of gas storage is installed to
provide seasonal storage
Gas storage dominates the capacities, which is
used for SNG (69%) and bio-methane (31%), which
is not accounted in the storage output diagrams
but as bioenergy generation
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Storage Operation Modes (2050)
Battery 365 x 24 Gas 365 x 24
Hydro reservoirs 365 x
24 (if applicable)
Key insights:
Battery storage balances on a daily basis
Gas storage reacts in a very flexible way
Hydro reservoirs provide complementarity with
solar, but is also used as seasonal storage
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Electricity System Cost during Transition
Key insights:
The power system LCOE decline from 72.7 €/MWh to 57.1
/MWh from 2015 to 2050, including all generation,
storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs
Beyond 2030 the LCOE further declines to 57.1 €/MWh by
2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition
result in reduction of energy costs
After an initial increase, the investment requirements
decline after 2030 to stabilise between 2040 to 2050
12 Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector: Turkmenistan
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CO2Emissions Reduction
Key insights:
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 5.7 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, while the total LCOE of
the power system declines
GHG emissions decline as fossil fueled power plant are eliminated from the system.
What is even more important is the observation that a deep decarbonisation of 90% to 0.5 MtCO2eq by
2030 and 97% to 0.2 MtCO2eq by 2040 is possible, which is well before 2050, while gradually lowering the
energy system LCOE
The results also indicate that a 100% RE based energy system is much more efficient in comparison to
the current energy system
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Turkmenistan can reach 100% RE and zero GHG emissions by 2050.
The LCOE obtained for a fully sustainable energy system is 57.1 €/MWh by 2050
Solar PV emerges as the most prominent electricity supply source with around 53%
of the total electricity supply by 2050
Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with 83% of total storage output
Cost of storage contributes substantially to the total energy system LCOE, which is
39%
GHG emissions can be reduced from about 5.7 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050
A 100% RE system is more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil based option
Summary I Energy Transition
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Existing RE technologies can generate sufficient energy to cover all electricity demand for
the year 2050
Total LCOE average is around 57.1 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050 (including curtailment,
storage and some grid costs), compared to the total LCOE of 72.7 €/MWh in 2015
main RE sources contribute to the total electricity supply in 2050 as follows:
53% solar PV
20% wind
16% geothermal
8% bioenergy
Solar PV and batteries are the most relevant energy technologies for the transition
Seasonal variation is the key reason for the importance of wind energy
Summary II Energy System 2050
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Further Findings
Results for the entire Eurasia are available:
Eurasia http://bit.ly/2zlUVfC
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financing of Stiftung Mercator GmbH
and Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt.
Further information and all publications at:
www.energywatchgroup.org
www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer
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