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Climate change adaptation: Levels and
predictors of climate hazard preparedness in
municipalities in Quebec (Canada)
Johann Jacob, Pierre Valois & Maxime Caron
Université Laval –Observatoire québécois de
l’adaptation aux changements climatiques (OQACC)
• Québec Observatory of Adaptation to Climate Change:
•Who are we?
• Study on the validation of an adaptation to heat waves and
flooding indices for urban architects
• Introduction
•Method
• Results
• Conclusion
• Questions
Plan
• In collaboration with the Quebec National Institute of Public Health (INSPQ)
• Funded by the Green Fund: Health component of the Québec government’s 2013-
2020 action plan on climate change
AIMS
• Monitor individual and organizational adaptation to climate change
• Identify the factors that facilitate or inhibit adaptation to climate change
•Equip public health authorities in their efforts to monitor adaptation to climate
change
OQACC
Observatoire Québécois de l’Adaptation aux Changements Climatiques
“Québec Observatory of Adaptation to Climate Change”
Do
municipalities
adapt to CC?
What are the
determinants of
adaptation?
Which attitude
and behavior-
changing
strategies should
be used?
•Developing and
validating the index
•Monitoring the evolution of
adaptation behaviors
Theories on behavior
prediction
Persuasive theories
on behavioral change
OQACC
Observatoire Québécois de l’Adaptation aux Changements Climatiques
“Québec Observatory of Adaptation to Climate Change”
•IPCC: One of the negative consequences of climate change
is the growing number of extreme weather events, such as
devastating heat waves and flooding.
•Potential health impacts of high summer heat conditions
(heat waves)
•Greater risk of health consequences for large city dwellers
•Infrastructures and built environment also more at risk in
urban areas
Introduction
• Cities can adopt various climate change adaptation (CCA)
measures:
üe.g.regulatory or non-regulatory measures, land use and development
plans, special urban planning programs
• However, little is known about the progress made in this regard:
ülack of valid CCA measurement and evaluation tools
ülack of knowledge about organizational factors leading some cities to
action and others to inaction
Introduction
Aim of the study
üCreate valid CCA indices, measure adaptation
levels, and identify the main predictors at the
municipal level
Introduction
Method
Method
•4 populations
üGeneral managers
üUrban and land-use planners
üPublic works managers
üEmergency and civil protection
officers
•Sampling method
üNo sampling method used
•Online surveys (Limesurvey)
üBetween June 30 and
September 16, 2016 (77 days)
üLength from 29 to 39 questions
• Response rates
üGeneral managers
ü8.19% (91/1111)
üUrban and land-use planners
ü46.4% (84/181)
üPublic works managers
ü25.4% (46/181)
üEmergency and civil protection
officers
ü9.54% (106/1111)
Method
Questions: Climate change adaptation behaviors
•Adoption of preparation to adapt behaviors, measures or activities
•Training activities linked to CCA
• Use of mapping tools
• Use of available information on climate change issues
• Production of information or ordering studies on climate change issues
• Identification of an officer responsible for CCA for the municipality
• Availability of specific budget for CCA
•Adoption of interventions to adapt to climate change
• Decisions linked to floodplain construction projects
• Immunization measures for floodplain constructions
• Measures to control heat islands
Mostly dichotomous questions (Yes/No) or frequency scales (e.g. never, rarely, sometimes, often)
Berrang-Ford, L., Pearce, T., & Ford, J. D. (2015). Systematic review approaches for climate change adaptation research. Regional
Environmental Change, 15(5), 755-769.
Nine categories of potential behaviors for measuring the preparation to adapt and the
adoption of interventions to adapt.
Method
2) Adoption of interventions to adapt
ØDecisions linked to floodplain construction
projects
ØImmunization measures for floodplain
constructions
ØMeasures to control heat islands
1) Preparation to adapt
ØTraining activities linked to CCA
ØUse of mapping tools
ØUse of available information on climate
change issues
ØProduction of information or ordering
studies on climate change issues
ØIdentification of an officer responsible for
CCA for the municipality
ØAvailability of specific budget for CCA
Method
Results
Confirmatory Factor Analysis
1. Use of available information on
climate change issues
2. Use of mapping tools
3. Production of information or
ordering of studies on climate
change issues
4. Training activities linked to
CCA
1. Measures to control
heat islands
2. Decisions linked to
floodplain constructions
3. Immunization measures
for floodplain
constructions
Index of preparation
to adaptation (PA)
by urban planning
officers
Adoption index of
interventions to
adapt (AI) by urban
planning officers
Structural equation modelling
Attitudes towards the adoption
of preventive and adaptive
behaviors
Social norms (influences and
pressure to adopt preventive
and adaptive behaviors)
Perceived control towards the
adoption of preventive and
adaptive behavior
Perceived severity of potential
climate change damage for
the city
Intention to adopt
behaviors to prepare for
adaptation and
interventions to adapt
Adoption of behaviors to
prepare for adaptation and
interventions to adapt
-.003
.139
.271*
.398**
.109
**p<0.01 *p<0.05
R2=31.6%**
R2=12.6%
.299*
CFI = 0.942
TLI = 0.827
RMSEA=0.087
•Our results suggest that the resulting indices of adaptation to heat
waves and flooding present good metrological qualities
• Government authorities could use these indices to encourage
preparation and intervention in regard to adaptation by municipal
officials…
• … and target the identified determinants.
•To ensure that these indices can be used across countries
concerned with adaptation issues, its measurement invariance in
such countries will have to be demonstrated in independent
samples.
Conclusion
For further information
please contact:
pierre.valois@fse.ulaval.ca
johann.jacob@fse.ulaval.ca
maxime.caron@fse.ulaval.ca
our website:
www.oqacc.ca
Annex
Method
Questions: Theory of planned behavior
• Attitudes towards the adoption of preventive and adaptive behaviors
•e.g: In general, the majority of elected officials in our municipality believe that municipalities have an
important role to play in preparing for heat waves / floods;
• Social norms (influences and pressure to adopt preventive and adaptive behaviors)
•e.g: Some Quebec municipalities, comparable to our own, have a priority to prepare for heat waves or
floods;
• Perceived control towards the adoption of preventive and adaptive behaviors
•e.g: Financial assistance is available for municipal measures to prepare for heat waves or floods;
• Intention to adopt behaviors to prepare for adaptation and interventions to adapt
•e.g: In the course of my duties ... a) I intend to prioritize the preparation for heat waves or flooding over the
next three years;
4-level Likert scale (Strongly disagree; Disagree; Agree; Strongly agree)
Ajzen, I. (1991). The Theory of Planned Behavior. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 50(2), 179-211.
Method
Additional questions: Health Belief Model
• Perceived risk of experiencing one of the hazards (level of occurrence)
•e.g: Over the next 10 years, what is the likelihood that the following contingencies will occur more often
than previously in the territory of your municipality? Heat waves; Floods
• Perceived severity of potential climate change damage for the city
•e.g: In the event that each of the following weather hazards occurs in the territory of your municipality, what
could be the approximate magnitude of damage to property and infrastructure? Heat waves; Floods
• Perceived effectiveness of proposed adaptation measures
•e.g: In general, how much do you consider your municipality's actions in the following areas of intervention
to be effective in reducing the potential impacts of climate change on the health and safety of the
population? Reduce the extent of asphalt surfaces in the urban perimeters (…)
4-level Likert scale (Not effective; Little effective; Fairly effective; Very effective) and
5-level Likert scale (Very low magnitude; Low magnitude; Average magnitude; Strong
magnitude; Very strong magnitude)
Rosenstock, I. M. (1974). Historical origins of the health belief model. Health education monographs, 2(4), 328-335.
• To develop the adaptation index, we performed:
• Item response analysis
• Confirmatory factor analysis
Statistical Analyses
• Based on the item analysis performed, all 9 indicators were retained due to
their good discrimination power.
Item Response Theory
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
0,671 1,171 1,671 2,171 2,671 3,171 3,671 4,171 4,671
Probability of adopting
the behavior
Preparation for adaptation
CCI of the behavior
“Training activities linked to CCA”
Confirmatory Factor Analysis
CFI =1.000
RMSEA =0.000
TLI =1.132
c
2/dl =0.310
Index of preparation
to adaptation (PA)
by urban planning
officers
PA3
PA4
PA2 0.660
0.540
0.853
PA1 0.641
Legend:
PA1: Use of available information on climate
change issues
PA2: Use of mapping tools
PA3: Production of information or ordering of
studies on climate change issues
PA4: Training activities linked to CCA
Confirmatory Factor Analysis
CFI =1.000
RMSEA =0.000
TLI =1.000
c
2/dl =0.000
Legend:
AI1: Measures to control heat islands
AI2: Decisions linked to floodplain constructions
AI3: Immunization measures for floodplain
constructions
Adoption index of
interventions to
adapt (AI) by urban
planning officers
AI3
AI2 0.394
0.923
AI1 0.482