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Abstract

The existence of long-term persistence (LTP) in hydro-climatic time series can lead to considerable change in significance of trends. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider LTP became a disputable issue. A study has been conducted to assess the trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Iraq in recent years (1965–2015) using both ordinary Mann-Kendal (MK) test; and the modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can differentiate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. Trends in annual and seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and 14 temperature-related extremes were assessed. MK test detected the significant increases in minimum and maximum temperature at all stations, where m-MK test detected at 86% and 80% of all stations, respectively. The temperature in Iraq is increasing 2 to 7 times faster than global temperature rise. The minimum temperature is increasing more (0.48–1.17 °C/decade) than maximum temperature (0.25–1.01 °C/decade). Temperature rise is higher in northern Iraq and in summer. The hot extremes particularly warm nights are increasing all over Iraq at a rate of 2.92–10.69 days/decade, respectively. On the other hand, numbers of cold days are decreasing at some stations at a rate of − 2.65 to − 8.40 days/decade. The use of m-MK test along with MK test confirms the significant increase in temperature and some of the temperature extremes in Iraq. This study suggests that trends in many temperature extremes in the region estimated in previous studies using MK test may be due to natural variability of climate, which empathizes the need for validation of the trends by considering LTP in time series.

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... Change in climatic refers to a state within a certain period that expresses changeable in the statistical distribution of weather patterns due to Radiative Forcing (RF) variation [6]. Because of changes in the composition of the earth's atmospheric system that impacts on earth's energy balance exchange which is causing global climatic change ( [7,8] Climate change is recognized as a future threat to the ecosystem [9]. Environment and public health [10]. ...
... Iraq is an arid country and considers vulnerable to climate change in the Arab region and most sensitive to climate variability [7]. Iraq might have increased in air temperature and decreased in precipitation in the future [22]. ...
... In recent years Iraq has experienced more heat waves in summer. The temperature in Basra city located in the Southern has reached 54℃ as the hottest recorded in the eastern hemisphere [7]. Many studies have revealed that air temperature and precipitation patterns in the middle east will significantly affect climate change. ...
Conference Paper
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Changes in air temperature have a significant impact in Iraq due to global climate change. The objective of this study is to project future trends of air temperature in Iraq. In this study, the future air temperature was projected for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 from the CCSM4 climate model belong to CMIP5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario for Iraq. The historical observed air temperature data (1950-2014) acted as referenced as the mean air temperature data obtained from 18 meteorological stations. Statistical downscaling has implemented. The model outputs were calibrated by using around 80% of the observed historical and model historical data. After that, it proved a significant performance of a statistical downscaling process for simulation air temperature for future periods. The results revealed that the mean air temperature would increase under the four RCPs scenarios with different levels. The lower increase rate belongs to the RCP2.6 scenario, the increase rate is expected to be (0.5-0.8 ℃) above the observed historical level. However, the RCP8.5 has the highest rate at (4.1-6 ℃) while, the RCP4.5 and RCP6.5 have (1-2 ℃) and (2-4 ℃) respectively. On the other hand, the temperature expands direction is from the south toward central, west and north of Iraq.
... Change in climatic refers to a state within a certain period that expresses changeable in the statistical distribution of weather patterns due to Radiative Forcing (RF) variation [6]. Because of changes in the composition of the earth's atmospheric system that impacts on earth's energy balance exchange which is causing global climatic change ( [7,8] Climate change is recognized as a future threat to the ecosystem [9]. Environment and public health [10]. ...
... Iraq is an arid country and considers vulnerable to climate change in the Arab region and most sensitive to climate variability [7]. Iraq might have increased in air temperature and decreased in precipitation in the future [22]. ...
... In recent years Iraq has experienced more heat waves in summer. The temperature in Basra city located in the Southern has reached 54℃ as the hottest recorded in the eastern hemisphere [7]. Many studies have revealed that air temperature and precipitation patterns in the middle east will significantly affect climate change. ...
Preprint
Changes in air temperature have a significant impact in Iraq due to global climate change. The objective of this study is to project future trends of air temperature in Iraq. In this study, the future air temperature was projected for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 from the CCSM4 climate model belong to CMIP5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario for Iraq. The historical observed air temperature data (1950-2014) acted as referenced as the mean air temperature data obtained from 18 meteorological stations. Statistical downscaling has implemented. The model outputs were calibrated by using around 80% of the observed historical and model historical data. After that, it proved a significant performance of a statistical downscaling process for simulation air temperature for future periods. The results revealed that the mean air temperature would increase under the four RCPs scenarios with different levels. The lower increase rate belongs to the RCP2.6 scenario, the increase rate is expected to be (0.5-0.8 ℃) above the observed historical level. However, the RCP8.5 has the highest rate at (4.1-6 ℃) while, the RCP4.5 and RCP6.5 have (1-2 ℃) and (2-4 ℃) respectively. On the other hand, the temperature expands direction is from the south toward central, west and north of Iraq.
... Change in climatic refers to a state within a certain period that expresses changeable in the statistical distribution of weather patterns due to Radiative Forcing (RF) variation [6]. Because of changes in the composition of the earth's atmospheric system that impacts on earth's energy balance exchange which is causing global climatic change ( [7,8] Climate change is recognized as a future threat to the ecosystem [9]. Environment and public health [10]. ...
... Iraq is an arid country and considers vulnerable to climate change in the Arab region and most sensitive to climate variability [7]. Iraq might have increased in air temperature and decreased in precipitation in the future [22]. ...
... In recent years Iraq has experienced more heat waves in summer. The temperature in Basra city located in the Southern has reached 54℃ as the hottest recorded in the eastern hemisphere [7]. Many studies have revealed that air temperature and precipitation patterns in the middle east will significantly affect climate change. ...
Article
Full-text available
Changes in air temperature have a significant impact in Iraq due to global climate change. The objective of this study is to project future trends of air temperature in Iraq. In this study, the future air temperature was projected for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 from the CCSM4 climate model belong to CMIP5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario for Iraq. The historical observed air temperature data (1950 – 2014) acted as referenced as the mean air temperature data obtained from 18 meteorological stations. Statistical downscaling has implemented. The model outputs were calibrated by using around 80% of the observed historical and model historical data. After that, it proved a significant performance of a statistical downscaling process for simulation air temperature for future periods. The results revealed that the mean air temperature would increase under the four RCPs scenarios with different levels. The lower increase rate belongs to the RCP2.6 scenario, the increase rate is expected to be (0.5-0.8 °C) above the observed historical level. However, the RCP8.5 has the highest rate at (4.1 -6 °C) while, the RCP4.5 and RCP6.5 have (1-2 °C) and (2-4 °C) respectively. On the other hand, the temperature expands direction is from the south toward central, west and north of Iraq.
... The temperature of West Asia is increasing much faster than the global average, while a substantial decrease in rainfall is also perceived [14][15][16]. Iraq is one of the most affected countries in the region due to climate change [17][18][19]. A decrease in climatic water availability (CWA) and an increase in crop water demand (CWD) are already evident in the country [7]. ...
... Owing to the collective impacts of extreme temperature and low rainfall, most of the country is extremely dry. Furthermore, Iraq is highly prone to natural disasters due to a larger variability in climate [19]. ...
... Overall, the results revealed that rising temperature would play a major role in Iraq CWD in the future. The region's temperature is rising rapidly compared to the rest of the globe [15,19], while the rainfall changes are not significant [13,16]. A large evaporative loss due to higher temperatures would control the water balance and CWD in Iraq. ...
Article
Full-text available
Assessment of possible changes in crops water stress due to climate alteration is essential for agricultural planning, particularly in arid regions where water supply is the major challenge for agricultural development. This study aims to project climatic water availability (CWA) and crop water demand (CWD) to outline the possible future agricultural water stress of Iraq for different radiative concentration pathways (RCPs). The ensemble means of downscaled precipitation and temperature projections of the selected global climate models (GCMs) were used in a simple water balance model for this purpose. The modified Mann-Kendall (mMK) trend test was employed to estimate the tendency in CWA and the Wilcoxon rank test to evaluate CWD alteration in three future time horizons compared to the base period (1971-2000). The results revealed a decrease in CWA at a rate of up to −34/year during 2010-2099 for RCP8.5. The largest declination would be in summer (−29/year) and an insignificant decrease in winter (−1.3/year). The study also showed an increase in CWD of all major crops for all scenarios. The highest increase in CWD would be for summer crops, approximately 320 mm, and the lowest for winter crops, nearly 32 mm for RCP8.5 in the far future (2070-2099). The decrease in CWA and increase in CWD would cause a sharp rise in crop water stress in Iraq. This study indicates that the increase in temperature is the main reason for a large increase in CWD and increased agricultural water stress in Iraq. Citation: Salman, S.A.; Shahid, S.; Sharafati, A.; Ahmed Salem, G.S.; Abu Bakar, A.; Farooque, A.A.; Chung, E.-S.; Ahmed, Y.A.; Mikhail, B.; Yaseen, Z.M. Projection of Agricultural Water Stress for Climate Change Scenarios: A Regional Case Study of Iraq.
... based on the time series from 1980 to 2012 (IPCC 2013, Fig. 2.22). The temperature all over Iraq is also increasing two to seven times faster than the global temperature increase (Salmana et al. 2017). The same study pointed out that the minimum temperature rising rate was (0.48-1.17°C/decade) and maximum temperature rising rate was (0.25-1.01°C/decade). ...
... They have justified those noticeable differences by local and regional factors. Salmana et al. (2017) also suggested that the temperature of west of Iraq represented in Rutba station has been affected less by current climate change trend compared with anther parts of Iraq. ...
... In fact, this result is not surprising, because many previous studies confirm that the southern region of Iraq is affected by warming more than other regions, Muslih and Błażejczyk (2017) were found to have more significant temperature increased in southern of Iraq compared to north and west parts of Iraq which are less influenced by warming trends. Salmana et al. (2017) also suggested that annual average of daily temperature is increasing in most stations of Iraq, as well as a significant increase in temperature extremes. ...
Article
Heating and cooling degree days (HDDs/CDDs) method is commonly used to quantify the demand for energy needed for cooling and heating of buildings. Therefore, daily air temperature (minimum and maximum) from four stations in Iraq were analyzed to detect the annual and monthly heating and cooling degree-days trend over the period 1970–2014 using linear regression techniques. The results indicated that; Annual mean values of accumulated heating degree-days AHDDs recorded from 1048oC in Basra station in the south to 2289oC in Mosul station north of Iraq. The annual mean values of ACDDs registered from 2220oC in Rutba to 2927oC in Basra. The annual AHDDs trends analysis indicated significant decreasing trends for all stations with probability level ≥ 99 % except in Basra. The monthly AHDDs showed a general decreasing trend for all stations, and for most months about 91.6 % of monthly trends had negative values. However, the annual total accumulated cooling degree-days ACDDs indicated that all stations registered significant positive trends with probability level ≥ 99 %. The highest annual positive linear tendency rate was recorded in Basra (19.586 oC/year). Moreover, the monthly ACDDs showed in the winter months from December to February, there were no significant trend values recorded. Except for these three months, there were significantly increased ACDDs trends in all stations and for the majority of the months during the study period.
... estimated the inter-annual changes and the long-term trends of monthly temperature .Furthermore, Salman et al 2017 [4] assessed the trends in annual and seasonal daily average minimum and maximum temperatures. ...
... The annual mean maximum temperature range is 41 -48 ºC, in summer; especially hot are the central and southern regions. The annual mean minimum temperatures reach the freezing point in the north and stay around 5°C in the southern area [4]. Most of the precipitation occurs during January and March. ...
... This is consistent with numerous studies that showed positive temperature trends upon using observed or simulated data from various general circulation models. Salman et al. (2017) and ESCWA (2017aESCWA ( , 2017b showed an increase in summer days with a temperature of .35°C and a number of days with a maximum temperature of .90th ...
... However, trends in DTR were different from many other studies, showing significant positive trends at three stations, indicative of a greater increase in maximum temperature than minimum temperature. IPCC (2007) and Salman et al. (2017) asserted that DTR is decreasing, implying that the rate of minimum temperature increase is higher than that of maximum temperature and that the DTR in Iraq is increasing following the global pattern. In contrast, precipitation indices had only one significant trend (at Baghdad station for CWD), indicating an increase in the number of consecutive days with precipitation of .1 mm. ...
Article
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Extreme climate and weather events have direct impacts on human life, the environment, and resources. The Diyala River basin is shared between Iraq and Iran, which makes it vulnerable not only to climate change effects but also to upstream control. Therefore, understanding and predicting extreme events is an essential step to help decision-makers make proactive plans to reduce expected damages. The pattern of extreme events has been identified using climate extreme indices developed by the World Meteorological Organization and Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices using ClimPACT2 software. Data were obtained from three meteorological stations in Iraq (Sulaymania, Khanakin, and Baghdad) and one in Iran (Sanandaj) over a period of 20 years (2000–2020). Results for temperature showed seven statistically significant positive trends for only three indices (annual number of days with daily maximum temperature of >35°, difference between daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures, and percentage of days with maximum temperature of >90th percentile, indicating an increase in that temperature). Baghdad station had positive temperature trends for all indices. Trends for precipitation were nearly all nonsignificant and difficult to anticipate compared with those for temperature. Percentile-based indices showed more dry and warm events than wet and cold. HIGHLIGHTS Statistical analysis was performed for the Diyala River basin to obtain information about extreme climate indices during the last 20 years.; The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect trends at annual, seasonal, and monthly scales.; The Weibull formula was used to predict the occurrence of extreme precipitation events.; Temperature showed a more significant trend than precipitation.;
... In South America, extreme temperatures have changed in the 1960-2000 period. For example, the coldest night has risen its temperature, and as a result, the number of warm nights has increased significantly (Vincent and Mekis 2006;Salman et al. 2017). ...
... Argentina, temperatures are increasing in line with global warming (Abatan et al. 2015;Salman et al. 2017). Thermal changes studied daily (i.e., frost days, warm nights, cold days, etc.) impact society due to the possible generation of property damage, injury, poverty, loss of lives, and biodiversity. ...
Article
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Global warming and the intensification of extreme temperature events have been significant issues around the world in recent decades. The Pampas region in Argentina is one of the essential areas worldwide because of its agricultural productivity. Therefore, this study aimed to assess daily temperature events trends to identify warming signals during the last 6 decades. Thus, climatic information from 50 weather stations was analyzed to calculate cold and hot extreme events. Trends analysis was carried out with a Mann–Kendall test. As a result, we identified that maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures increased more than 1 °C in most of the Pampas from 1960 to 2018. The hot and cold extreme events demonstrated the existence of warming signals since warm days, warm nights, summer days, tropical nights, and both the coldest days and nights presented a significantly positive trend (2.3 °C, 0.7 °C, 43.6 days, 17.1 days, 0.9 °C, and 1.9 °C in the 59 years, respectively). Contrarily, frost days and cold nights and days had negative trends (12.3 days, 3.2 °C, and 2.4 °C in the 59 years, respectively). The results allow us to conclude that a high daily temperature variability characterizes the region. This knowledge is crucial for generating management policies focused on the sustainability of agricultural economic activities in Pampas.
... estimated the inter-annual changes and the long-term trends of monthly temperature .Furthermore, Salman et al 2017 [4] assessed the trends in annual and seasonal daily average minimum and maximum temperatures. ...
... The annual mean maximum temperature range is 41 -48 ºC, in summer; especially hot are the central and southern regions. The annual mean minimum temperatures reach the freezing point in the north and stay around 5°C in the southern area [4]. Most of the precipitation occurs during January and March. ...
Article
Full-text available
The cold events and Precipitation conditions having special attention in the last years due to their impact on human health, ecosystems, and other aspects such as agriculture, hydrology. The ECMWF ERA-Interim 12-hourly (03 and 15 UTC) total precipitations and Tmin in a 1º x 1º grid covering Iraq, from 29° N to 38° N and from 39° W to 48° E, with a total of 10 by 10 cells, was used. At each grid point, extremes were defined as those events in which total precipitations were above 99th percentile for the 25 years period 1994-2018. For more investigation, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated The trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to study the dynamical mechanism that led to producing the cold events in Iraq. The number of extreme precipitations patterns shows an increasing behavior in the number of extreme events especially in the last decade, farther more there is a significant increase in the number of extreme precipitations in the last three years ago. No correlations were found with NAO, EA index, in contrast, there is a significant negative correlation with winter Arctic oscillations index. The aim of this work is studying the precipitation and cold extreme events in Iraq and their relations of most hemispheric pattern which influence in the Middle East region such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic index (EA), Artic oscillation index (AO) and Mediterranean index (MOi). We speculate that the results of this study can provide a better understanding of extreme cold and precipitations anomalies in Iraq from a large-scale view.The cold events and Precipitations conditions having special attention in the last years due to their impact on human health, ecosystems and other aspects such as agriculture, hydrology. The ECMWF ERA-Interim 12-hourly (03 and 15 UTC) total precipitations and Tmin in a 1º x 1º grid covering the Iraq, from 29° N to 38° N and from 39° W to 48° E, with a total of 10 by 10 cells, was used. At each grid point, extremes were defined as those events in which total precipitations were above its 99th percentile for the 25 years’ period 1994-2018. For more investigation, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to study the dynamical mechanism that led to produce the cold events over Iraq. The number of extreme precipitations pattern shows an increasing behavior in the number of extreme events especially in last decade, farther more there is a significant increase in the number of extreme precipitations in last three years ago. No correlations were found with NAO, EA index, in contrast, there is a significant negative correlation with winter Arctic oscillations index. The aim of this work is studying the precipitation and cold extreme events in Iraq and their relations of most hemispheric pattern which influence in the Middle East region such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic index (EA), Artic oscillation index (AO) and Mediterranean index (MOi). We speculate that the results of this study can provide a better understanding of extreme cold and precipitations anomalies in Iraq a large-scale view.
... Various environmental factors influence reproduction in rodents, including photoperiod (Muteka et al., 2006c;Trillmich et al., 2009;Tavolaro et al., 2015), rainfall (Dubost et al., 2005;Sarli et al., 2016;El Bizri et al., 2018), and temperature (Sarli et al., 2016;Salman et al., 2017;Fabio-Braga and Klein, 2018) Understanding how these environmental factors affect rodents is essential for identifying the physiological and behavioral responses of these animals, thus making it possible to establish strategies that can mitigate the deleterious effects on reproductive activity (Rezende and Bozinovic, 2019), whether caused by climate change, or direct anthropic actions that harm ecosystems. ...
... It is worth noting that the reproductive seasonality of wild rodents is modulated by environmental variables and their joint interactions. In regions where rainfall is scarce, such as in deserts or semi-arid climates, high temperatures and low air humidity are observed throughout the year (Sarli et al., 2016;Salman et al., 2017), which can promote serious energy and water restrictions that may affect the reproduction of small mammals. Despite this, some rodent species as free-living Saudi Arabian rats (A. ...
Article
Full-text available
Myomorphic and hystricomorphic rodents are vital for maintaining various ecosystems around the planet. This review enables a better understanding of how these rodents respond to environmental factors and adapt to climate adversities. Innumerable factors, such as photoperiod, rainfall, and temperature, can impair or contribute to the quality of rodent reproductive parameters. Prolonged animal exposure to high ambient temperatures alters thermoregulation mechanisms and causes testicular and ovarian tissue degeneration and hormonal deregulation. Photoperiod influences the biological circannual rhythm and reproductive cycles of rodents because it strongly regulates melatonin secretion by the pineal gland, which modulates gonadotropic hormone secretion. Rainfall quantity directly regulates the abundance of fruits in an ecosystem, which modulates the reproductive seasonality of species which are most dependent on a seasonal fruit-based diet. Species with a more diversified fruit diet have smaller reproductive seasonality. As such, habitats are chosen by animals for various reasons, including the availability of food, sexual partners, intra-and inter-specific competition, and predation. This knowledge allows us to monitor and establish management plans to aid in conservation strategies for wild rodent species.
... It is bordered by Turkey to the north, Iran to the east, Syria and Jordan to the west, and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to the south (Fig. 1). The country can be divided into four physiographic regions: the northern and northeastern mountainous region (covering 21% of the territory), the southern and western mountainous region (Al-Jazirah) (covering 9.6%), the central and southern Mesopotamian plain (covering 30.2%), and the western and southwestern deserts (covering 39.2%) (Salman et al. 2017). These regions are mainly characterized by Mediterranean, steppe, subtropical semiarid, and continental desert climatic conditions, respectively (Salman et al. 2019) (Fig. 2). ...
... The rainy season extends from October to March and the pattern of rainfall is usually unpredictable. Precipitation ranges from < 100 mm yr −1 in the central and southern deserts to about 1000 mm yr −1 in the mountains (Salman et al. 2017). Temperatures normally range from 16 °C in winter to 43 °C in July and August (Bishay 2003). ...
Article
The spatial and temporal changes of water resources of Iraq were evaluated using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data for the period 2002-2019. The rate of change and significance of the change in terrestrial water storage (TWS) derived from different GRACE solutions were estimated using Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test. The sustainability of water resources was evaluated using reliability-resiliency-vulnerability indicators. Results indicated a significant decrease in water availability. The reliability (range 0.22-0.30) and resiliency (range 0.01-0.23) of water resources were low. The estimated vulnerability (range of 0-1) was highest in the north and lowest in the south and southwest. The calculated sustainability of water resources was generally low (range 0-0.36) and was higher in southern and western regions relative to northern and central areas. Anthropogenic activities and climate change (increasing temperature) play major roles in changes in water availability in Iraq.
... Located in a water-scarce region with few water resources of its own, Iraq is one of the Middle Eastern countries that will experience a predicted increase in mean temperature of up to 2°C in the next 2 decades (Salman et al. 2018, Al-Mukhtar & Qasim 2019, Hassan 2020. Salman et al. (2017) reported that, according to historical data, the temperature rises 2−7 times faster in Iraq than global temperatures, making the impact of climate change more serious in the Middle East. Many previous studies in neighboring countries have indicated a rise in temperature-related extremes in the Middle East region (AlSarmi & Washington 2014, Al Senafi & Anis 2015, Sarli et al. 2016. ...
... Changes in T max are closely associated with a range of global issues, such as water resources and agriculture (Prasad et al. 2008, Niero et al. 2015, changes in the hydrologic cycle, public health (Xiang et al. 2014), the environment (Cardil et al. 2014, El-Sharkawy 2014, Hassan et al. 2017, the economy (Barros et al. 2015), and energy demands (Liu & Sweeney 2012, Shahid 2012. But despite the importance of these issues, research on temperature change has been very limited in Iraq (Robaa & Al-Barazanji 2015, Muslih & Błaże-jczyk 2017, Salman et al. 2017. The impacts of climate change -increased temp erature, decreased precipitation, in creased salinity, water scarcity, and an increase in the spread of dust storms and sands -will exacerbate current challenges and have serious repercussions in the future. ...
Article
Global warming as an aspect of climate change has caused environmental problems, especially in dry regions. Identifying and assessing future climate change is therefore paramount to facilitate suitable environmental planning to adapt to, and reduce, its effects. Here, changes in the annual and seasonal maximum temperatures for 7 meteorological stations in southwestern Iraq were projected across mid-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2070-2099) time periods. Three different general circulation models (GCMs)—CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5—were applied to 2 future emission representative concentration pathway scenarios—RCP4.5 and RCP8.5—using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) applied to data collected over the period 1975-2005. The downscaling modeling process was effective at generating maximum temperatures over the selected time periods. The future simulation scenarios projected that temperatures will increase up to the end of the century, with the region potentially experiencing temperature increases of about 1.78-2.07°C during 2040-2069 and 2.2-2.63°C during 2070-2099 under RCP4.5. Projected warming for scenario RCP8.5 was 2.18-2.85°C and 2.93-3.7°C over the same time periods. These projected increases in temperature imply water scarcity and increases in desertification, which can be considered threats to the region.
... For the detection of a statistically significant trend in the AOD time-series, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test can be used [48][49][50]. The MK test is simple and robust against outliers, missing values, normal distribution, and has low sensitivity to abrupt breaks in time-series [51]. However, the presence of autocorrelation would add a significant trend to the time-series, even when there is no trend, and affect the outcomes of the MK test [52,53]. ...
... The MK test is a nonparametric method that can be used to identify a statistically relevant pattern in the AOD time-series [48,50]. The MK test has low sensitivity to sudden breaks in time-series and is capable of outliers, incomplete values by checking the regular distribution of data [51]. The test's null hypothesis (H0) claims that there is no pattern over time in the AOD time sequence, while the alternate hypothesis (H1) suggests that there is a monotonous pattern over time (increasing or decreasing). ...
Article
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The spatiotemporal evolution and trends in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over environmentally distinct regions in Pakistan are investigated for the period 1980–2018. The AOD data for this period was obtained from the Modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis atmospheric products, together with the Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrievals. The climatology of AODMERRA-2 is analyzed in three different contexts: the entire study domain (Pakistan), six regions within the domain, and 12 cities chosen from the entire study domain. The time-series analysis of the MODIS and MERRA-2 AOD data shows similar patterns in individual cities. The AOD and its seasonality vary strongly across Pakistan, with the lowest (0.05 ± 0.04) and highest (0.40 ± 0.06) in the autumn and summer seasons over the desert and the coastal regions, respectively. During the study period, the annual AOD trend increased between 0.002 and 0.012 year-1. The increase of AOD is attributed to an increase in population and emissions from natural and/or anthropogenic sources. A general increase in the annual AOD over the central to lower Indus Basin is ascribed to the large contribution of dust particles from the desert. During winter and spring, a significant decrease in the AOD was observed in the northern regions of Pakistan. The MERRA-2 and MODIS trends (2002–2018) were compared, and the results show visible differences between the AOD datasets due to theuseof different versions and collection methods. Overall, the present study provides insight into the regional differences of AOD and its trends with the pronounced seasonal behavior across Pakistan.
... Hence, ETo is considered as one of the most important parameters for any hydrological and climatic study (Roudier et al. 2014). Rising temperature is one of the most imminent and certain impacts of global warming (Salman et al. 2017;Pour et al. 2019). The major impact of rising temperature of water resources will be through the alteration of ETo. ...
Article
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Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the foremost elements of the hydrology cycle which is essential for water resources management and irrigation applications. The current study is emphasized on the implementation of evolutionary computing models (i.e., gene expression programming (GEP)) for the simulation daily ETo in different locations of Peninsular Malaysia. The ETo models are developed using various input combinations of meteorological variables including air temperature (mean, maximum, and minimum), relative humidity, solar radiation, and mean wind speed. The in situ measurements of the ET are used to validate the model's performance. The performance of the proposed GEP model is also compared with five well-established empirical formulations (EFs) developed based on the related climatological variability. The attained results evidenced the potential of GEP-derived ETo models in terms of all the statistical measures used. The best GEP model attained when all the meteorological variables are incorporated. However, the study revealed that the use of only temperature information can provide substantial predictability compared to EFs at all the studied stations across Peninsular Malaysia. This confirms the applicability of GEP in simulating ETo with fewer meteorological variables. The major advantage of GEP compared to other black box artificial intelligence algorithms is that GEP provides a set of equations which can be used by practitioners for reliable estimation of ETo at field with a fewer meteorological variable and, thus, can have wide applicability in water resources management.
... To overcome this problem, Yue and Wang (2002) and applied the Trend Free Pre-Whitening method to the data series, where the serial correlation was firstly removed and the trend test was then performed on the uncorrelated residuals (Hajani et al. 2017;Piyoosh & Ghosh 2017). Furthermore, Hamed and Rao (1998) introduced the modified Mann-Kendall trend test through the variance correction approach to account for the effect of serial correlation (Salman et al. 2017). Recently, the innovative trend method (ITM) proposed by Sen (2012) has been successfully applied in the hydrological time series. ...
Article
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The present study investigates the trend in long term monthly streamflow of Sungai Lui (upstream) and Sungai Kajang (middle-stream) of the Sungai Langat Basin located in Selangor, Malaysia. The Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Method (ITM) tests were utilized to assess the trends at the two stations. The trend free pre-whitening (TFPW) and variance correction (VC) tests were used to assess the effects of serial correlation on the established trend, and Sen’s slope estimator was used to assess the magnitude of streamflow. Based on Sen’s Slope estimator results, the trend magnitude for Lui station is very small compared to the Kajang station. The Kajang station shows the highest increase in trend magnitude for November. The results of TFPW and VC trend tests showed that the most significant increasing trend of months occurred at Kajang station, while the less increasing significant trend of months occurred at Lui station. It can be concluded that similar trend results were obtained when the modified Mann-Kendall and ITM were applied to the same data for Sungai Lui and Sungai Kajang. The study found that there is a significant difference in terms of trend and magnitud between upstream and middle-stream.
... For instance, according to the findings from Rwanyiziri and Rugema (2013), the rise in temperature and changes in the amount of rainfall and its distribution have altered water resources availability, consequently affecting rice productivity across Bugesera District. Moreover, studies have indicated that spatiotemporal changes of Tmax and Tmin significantly affect the intensity, duration and extent of temperature extremes worldwide (Salman et al., 2017;Sun et al., 2017). Furthermore, food production, biodiversity, and ecosystems are highly affected by Tmax and Tmin changes (Qasim et al., 2016;Walther et al., 2002;Smith et al., 1999). ...
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Rwanda has experienced high temperature rising phenomena over the last decades and hence, highly vulnerable to climate change. This paper examined the spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature (Tmin and Tmax) and diurnal temperature range (DTR). It studied variables at monthly, seasonal and annual time-scales from 1961 to 2014. The study applied various statistical methods such as ordinary least-square fitting, Mann-Kendall, Sen’ slope and Sequential Mann-Kendall statistical test to the new reconstructed ENACTS dataset that cover the period from 1983 to 2014 while pre-1983s recorded data from 24 meteorological stations have been added to complete the lengthiness of ENACTS data. The January to February season did not show a significant trend at seasonal time-scales. The authors decided only to consider March-to-May, June-to-August and October-to-December seasons for further analyses. Topography impacts on temperature classified stations into three regions: region one (R1) (1,000–1,500 m), region two (R2) (1,500–2,000 m) and region three (R3) (≥2,000 m). With high confidence, the results indicate a significant positive trend in both Tmin and Tmax in all three regions during the whole study period. However, the magnitude rate of temperatures change is different in three regions and it varies in seasonal and annual scale. The spatial distributions of Tmax and Tmin represent a siginificant warming trend over the whole country notably since the early 1980s. Surprisingly, Tmin increased at a faster rate than Tmax in R3 (0.27 vs. 0.07°C/decade in March-to-May) and (0.29 vs. 0.04°C/decade in October-to-December), resulting in a significant decrease in the DTR. This is another confirmation of warming in Rwanda. The mutation test application exhibited most of the abrupt changes in the seasonal and annual Tmax and Tmin trends between 1984 and 1990. The present work mainly focus on the spatial and temporal variability of Tmin, Tmax and DTR in Rwanda and their relationship with elevation change, leaving a gap in other potential cause factors explored in the future.
... Anyhow, the picture in this study has been consistent with the common expectation that T mean has risen up 0.3 ºC per decade on average over the past 60 years in Iran, indicating that the increase in air temperature in Iran was higher than the global average. In a recent study conducted in Iraq (Iran's western neighbour), Salman et al. (2017) suggested that air temperature in the country had been increasing 2 to 7 times faster than global mean surface air temperature rise. ...
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Global warming has become a major threat to life on the earth, and recognizing its impacts can definitely be useful in controlling and mitigating its adverse effects. In this study, time series variations in air temperature indices (frost days, T min , T max , T mean , T minmin , T maxmax , T soil-min ), De Martonne aridity index (I DM ) and total precipitation were investigated using a long-term meteorological data (1960–2019) of 31 synoptic stations throughout Iran. The results indicated that more than 94% of the stations had increasing trend in T mean , in which about 70% were significant at the 0.05 level. The average increase in T min was calculated approximately 1.7 times higher than T max and also the increase in T minmin was about 2.5 times higher than T maxmax . Our findings showed that, abrupt changes in T min and T max mostly observed in the 1990s were upward in 87% of all the stations. Increase in annual T mean at a rate of 0.3 ºC per decade and reduction of 5 mm per decade in total annual precipitation led to decrease in the I DM aridity index by 0.35 per decade in Iran. The intensity of air temperature increase was higher in tropical regions than in cold regions. Trend analysis in the partial series before and after a change point showed that the trends in T mean before the change point were negative, but turned to positive afterwards in some stations mostly located in the northwestern cold and mountainous regions of the country. Our results revealed that the climate in Iran, in general, has become warmer and drier in the past 60 years and continuation of the current global warming trend will exacerbate this problem in the future.
... Anyhow, the picture in this study has been consistent with the common expectation that T mean has risen up 0.3°C per decade on average over the past 60 years in Iran, indicating that the increase in air temperature in Iran was higher than the global average. In a recent study conducted in Iraq (Iran's western neighbour), Salman et al. (2017) suggested that air temperature in the country had been increasing 2 to 7 times faster than global mean surface air temperature rise. ...
Article
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Global warming has become a major threat to life on the earth, and recognizing its impacts can definitely be useful in controlling and mitigating its adverse effects. In this study, time series variations in air temperature indices (frost days, Tmin, Tmax, Tmean, Tminmin, Tmaxmax, Tsoil-min), De Martonne aridity index (IDM), and total precipitation were investigated using a long-term meteorological data (1960–2019) of 31 synoptic stations throughout Iran. The results indicated that more than 94% of the stations had increasing trend in Tmean, in which about 70% were significant at the 0.05 level. The average increase in Tmin was calculated approximately 1.7 times higher than Tmax and also the increase in Tminmin was about 2.5 times higher than Tmaxmax. Our findings showed that abrupt changes in Tmin and Tmax mostly observed in the 1990s were upward in 87% of all the stations. Increase in annual Tmean at a rate of 0.3 °C per decade and reduction of 5 mm per decade in total annual precipitation led to decrease in the IDM aridity index by 0.35 per decade in Iran. The intensity of air temperature increase was higher in tropical regions than in cold regions. Trend analysis in the partial series before and after a change point showed that the trends in Tmean before the change point were negative, but turned to positive afterwards in some stations mostly located in the northwestern cold and mountainous regions of the country. Our results revealed that the climate in Iran, in general, has become warmer and drier in the past 60 years and continuation of the current global warming trend will exacerbate this problem in the future.
... This is particularly the case for socioeconomic developments, which are strongly dependent on steady freshwater resources availability in local water systems, leading to a decrease in water availability due to overexploitation [3]. Climate changes have further aggravated water availability due to decreases in rainfall [4][5][6][7] and generally increasing temperature [8][9][10]. These have led to shrinkages of lakes and other surface water bodies in some parts of the globe. ...
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This study projects water availability and sustainability in Nigeria due to climate change. This study used Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage data (TWS), Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) precipitation data and Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature data. Four general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 were downscaled using the best of four downscaling methods. Two machine learning (ML) models, RF and SVM, were developed to simulate GRACE TWS data for the period 2002–2016 and were then used for the projection of spatiotemporal changes in TWS. The projected TWS data were used to assess the spatiotemporal changes in water availability and sustainability based on the reliability–resiliency–vulnerability (RRV) concept. This study revealed that linear scaling was the best for downscaling over Nigeria. RF had better performance than SVM in modeling TWS for the study area. This study also revealed there would be decreases in water storage during the wet season (June–September) and increases in the dry season (January–May). Decreases in projected water availability were in the range of 0–12 mm for the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 under RCP2.6 and in the range of 0–17 mm under RCP8.5 during the wet season. Spatially, annual changes in water storage are expected to increase in the northern part and decrease in the south, particularly in the country’s southeast. Groundwater sustainability was higher during the period 2070–2099 under all RCPs compared to the other periods and this can be attributed to the expected increases in rainfall during this period.
... Furthermore, most research in the cold and temperate regions has focused on new species (3)(4). Iraq is one of the warmest countries on the planet, mainly because of the range of extreme environmental and climatic conditions (5). Iraq's grows naturally in saline lands (halophytes), with some other types of plants such as Alhagi maurorum, Salsola longifolia and Haloxylon articulatum, all of which are classified as perennial halophytes (8). ...
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Background and Objectives: Yeasts are an important portion of microbial communities of soil due to their bioactivity for ecosystem safety. Soil yeast abundance and diversity are likely to be affected under harsh environmental and climatic conditions. In Iraq, human activity and climatic changes especially high temperature which may alter microbial communities in soil. Very little is known about yeast abundance and diversity in a hot climatic region. Materials and Methods: By PCR technique, soil yeast abundance and diversity were investigated under extreme environmental and climatic conditions , as well as the effects of soil properties and vegetation cover in semi-arid lands. Results: In all, 126 yeast strains were isolated and identified as belonging to 13 genera and 26 known species. The maximum quantity of yeast was 0.8 X 102 CFU g-1 of soil, with significantly varied in abundance and diversity depending on soil properties and presence of vegetation. Conclusion: The results show that soil yeast abundance in these regions was significantly decreased. However, semi-arid lands are still rich in yeast diversity, and many species have adapted to survive in such conditions.
... Nonetheless, recurrent floods due to rainstorms result in uprooting of some individuals, especially juvenile ones. In addition, the annual average minimum temperature is increasing faster than maximum temperature, and the overall temperature in Iraq increases much faster than the global average (Salman et al. 2017). During summer, temperatures reach 50-54 °C in southern parts of Iraq (Ahmed and Hassan 2018). ...
Article
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In this contribution, the conservation status assessment of three vascular plants according to IUCN categories and criteria is presented. It includes the global assessment of Limonium parvifolium Tineo and Viscaria alpina (L.) G.Don, and the regional assessment of Rhazya stricta Decne. (Iraq).
... e method is less sensitive to the abrupt breakpoints and is robust against outliers and missing values [72]. However, the test is sensitive to the serial correlation that may affect the test results [71,73]. During the current study, the sequential correlation approach was employed before applying the MK test to examine the statistical significance of trends in the rainfall data series. ...
Article
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This study evaluates the spatiotemporal rainfall variability over the semimountainous Soan River Basin (SRB) of sub-Himalayan Pothwar region, Pakistan. The temporal rainfall trend analysis of sixteen rain gauges was performed on annual basis with long-term (1981–2016) data. The results depicted that there is substantial year-to-year and season-to-season variability in rainfall patterns, and rainfall patterns are generally erratic in nature. The results highlight that most of the highland rainfall stations showed decreasing trends on annual basis. The central and lowland stations of the study area recorded an increasing trend of rainfall except for Talagang station. The average annual rainfall of the study area ranges between 492 mm and 1710 mm in lowland and high-altitude areas, respectively. Of the whole year’s rainfall, about 70 to 75% fall during the monsoon season. The rainfall spatial distribution maps obtained using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method, through the GIS software, revealed the major rainfall range within the study area. There is a lack of water during postmonsoon months (November–February) and great differences in rainfall amounts between the mountainous areas and the lowlands. There is a need for the rational management of mountainous areas using mini and check dams to increase water production and stream regulation for lowland areas water availability. The spatiotemporal rainfall variability is crucial for better water resource management schemes in the study area of Pothwar region, Pakistan.
... Most of these studies have inferred an increase in the temperature and reduction in the precipitation. Numerous studies have used the Mann-Kendall Trend test and Sen's method for detecting the trends in air temperature, rainfall or precipitation, evapotranspiration, wind speed, air quality, etc. Karaburun et al., 2011;Pes et al., 2017;Xu et al., 2018;Güçlü, 2020;Salman et al., 2017). ...
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There is a global change in the climate and cities are looked as the key culprits of this change. Indiawill undergo an immense urbanization in the coming decades, doubling its urbanpopulation by 2050. Thus it is very important to understand the dynamics of the changing urban climate of Indian cities. With this background, the present urban climate change study is conducted for the Vadodara city located in the state of Gujarat, Indiausing the hourly Dry Bulb Temperature (DBT) and Wet Bulb Temperature (WBT) available at 00-hr, 03-hr, 06-hr, 09-hr, 12-hr, 15-hr, 18-hr and 21-hr for a period of 37 years (1969-2006). The hourly DBT and WBT for the 12 months were bunched on hourly-monthlybasis (thereby having 192 specific bunches) for the study period which were then analyzed using the Mann-Kendall trend test at different confidence limits (90%, 95% and 99%). The findings reveal that there is an overall increase in the temperature of the city as for 78% of the time the DBT had an increasing trend and 52% of the time WBT had an increasing trend. For the first half of the day (03-hr to 12-hr) both the DBT and WBT had an overall increasing trend while in the second half of the day (15-hr to 0-hr) DBT had an overall increasing trend and WBT had an overall decreasing trend. This contrasting behavior of the DBT and WBT was specifically seen in the months of May-July which are largely the monsoon months. For both DBT and WBT, the month of Februaryhad the overall maximum increasing trend while the month of August had the overall maximum decreasing trend. The present study statistically quantifies the changing urban climate of Vadodara city and these findings would not only add to the pool of knowledge to understand the dynamics of the changing urban climate but will be of ready reference for the policy makers to initiate appropriate measures for mitigation and adaptation.
... Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent around the country. Over the past 100 years, precipitation has been highly variable with different trends in different parts of the country (Salman et al. 2017). In Iraq, November typically brings wet weather after long dry summer. ...
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Rainfall is most important factor influencing the atmospheric cycle of the atmosphere, since its spatial and temporal distributions are very complex. Heavy rainfall events may cause flash floods in the arid and semi-arid regions Middle East. The present study investigates the synoptic and dynamics situations of four extreme rainfall events that occurred in Iraq on 04, 15, 24, and 30 of November 2018. Rainfall data were acquired from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM), and surface and upper meteorological variable were acquired from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). The Rainfall analysis showed that November 2018 was characterized by the most unusual heavy rain events during the past two decades with a maximum of 200 mm/month (an anomaly of about 120 mm/month) near the town of Kut in the east part of the country (with an anomaly of about 120 mm/month). Analysis of surface and upper level charts indicated that during the four events the region was dominated by the Active Red Sea Trough (ARST), a situation when RST at the surface is associated by mid-tropospheric trough. The results also denoted that moisture was transported from equatorial north east Africa and the Red Sea towards north east regions including Iraq. The 850 hPa chart denoted that the warm moist air was advancing towards the cooler areas with a maximum speed of 20 m/s above the axis of the RST. The negative vertical pressure velocity along with high values of relative humidity suggests that cloud continued to develop at that level. 500 hPa charts showed that during all four events there was a positive vorticity advection towards the areas where rain was falling. This advection process contributes to a lifting of the air to upper levels. The 200 hPa composite maps of polar front jet stream and ageostrophic divergence indicated that in all four events there were high air suction from lower levels which enforced upward vertical motion at these levels and deepening low pressure areas at the surface.
... This study was conducted in the climate of Baqubah city-Iraq. Iraq is located in the southwestern part of the continent Asia and the northeastern part of the Arab homeland between longitudes 38.45° to 48.45° E and latitudes 29.05° to 37.3° N [20][21][22]. Iraq's climate is characterized as variable from humid in the northern and northeastern region to very dry in the western and southern regions and some central regions as shown in figure (1). ...
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The objectives of this study is to evaluate the use of geothermal energy combined with conventional air-conditioner (A/C) and its contribution to reducing dependence on electrical energy. Assessment of geothermal sources in Diyala governorate. This experiment includes installing a combined system in the test room. The indoor and outdoor temperatures and relative humidity were calculated, as well as the calculation of borehole temperature, in addition to the energy efficiency ratio (EER) and coefficient of performance (COP) of the systems. The amount of electricity consumption in kWh was calculated. The most important findings in this experiment are: (1) The temperature of the well at a depth of (6m) is almost constant throughout the year, about 24. (2) Using the geothermal system alone in the test-room reduces the average indoor temperature by 8 within one day. (3) Iraq can benefit from the important geothermal energy and its sources, however, its use is still very limited and limited to scientific research only. (4) The experiment proved that the EER and COP of the geothermal system, the combined system and the window-type air-conditioner are 18.9, 9.8, 9.4, 5.54, 1.9 and 1.52 respectively.
... Almeida et al. (2017) analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of temperature trends at 47 stations in Amazon for the period 1973-2013, using MK and SS tests and reported an increasing trend of around 0.04°C per year for the whole region. Salman et al. (2017) reported increasing temperature trends in both maximum (0.25-1.01°C/ decade) and minimum (0.48-1.17°C/decade) annual temperature of Iraq, using MK and MMK test for the period of 1965-2015. Datta and Das (2019) studied the long-term variations in maximum and minimum temperatures for northern districts of West Bengal using MK test and SS estimator. ...
Article
The study of temperature trends and its impact on agricultural crop is critically important for evaluating the effects of climate change on food security. Spatiotemporal trends of the monthly, seasonal, and annual average temperature of 36 districts of Maharashtra, located in west India, were analyzed using 68 years of gridded temperature data of India Meteorological Department Mann-Kendall, modified Mann-Kendall, and Spearman’s rank correlation tests were used to analyze the trends of temperature, whereas Sen’s slope, Spearman’s Rho, and simple linear regression were used to quantify the magnitude of trends at 1% and 5% levels of significance. Correlation and regression analysis were performed between temperature and detrended yield for sugarcane. Results revealed that only increasing trends of monthly, seasonal, and annual average temperatures were significant in districts of Maharashtra. Significantly rising temperature trends of up to 2.58 °C, 1.78 °C and 1.05°C per 100 year were observed in monthly, seasonal, and annual temperatures, respectively. The magnitude of increasing temperature trends was more in the second half of the year. November and post-monsoon season had the highest increasing magnitude of trend for monthly and seasonal temperatures, respectively. Our analysis reveals increasing trends of average temperature in the region, which has significant negative impacts on Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.). District-wise correlations of yield and monthly temperature anomalies showed 63.9% negative correlations, with significant negative correlations in 7.3% combinations. Overall the state has significant negative correlations of yield and monthly temperature, with Pearson’s correlation coefficient varying from −0.1(September) to −0.32 (July). The study confirms the adverse impacts of climate change on agricultural crop, and the results along with the district-wise temperature trend maps will be helpful for policy planners for agricultural resource management in west India.
... The area of the city is approximately 5023 km 2 . The city is located 350 m above the sea level; the city experiences a semiarid climate with extremely hot, dry summers and cool rainy winters; the mean annual temperature is 28.7°C, the annual humidity is approximately 48.5%, and an average annual rainfall is approximately 361.3 mm [11]. ...
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Owing to the growing population in Kirkuk, Iraq and the consequent increase in waste production, along with global warming caused by an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, high levels of emissions were observed at the landfill near Kirkuk. In this study, the risk of explosion due to methane formed in landfills and the economic usefulness of utilizing methane were investigated. These emissions can be transmitted by the wind over considerable distances and adversely affect the environment and individual health. In this study, an improved version of LandGem 3.02 was utilized to determine the emission rate of the total landfill gases (i.e., methane, carbon dioxide, and NMOC) emitting from the Kirkuk sanitary landfill in the Kirkuk Governorate in Iraq. The Kirkuk sanitary landfill started working in February 2008. It has a predicted life span of 30 years. The peak output of total LFGs, methane, carbon dioxide, and non-methane organic compounds is 119800, 32010, 87830, and 1376 tons/year, respectively.
... In the MENA region, the temperature has significantly increased more than the global average, e.g., in Iraq, the temperature is increasing much faster than the global average rise [22]. Egypt, as an arid country, is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of CC, thus, many studies have been recently concerned with spatial and temporal temperature changes in Egypt, as shown in Table 1. ...
Chapter
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Climate change has altered the hydrological cycle by increasing temperature, rising sea level, and changing precipitation patterns in many regions of the world. Egypt faces several serious risks from climate change that could reduce water supplies and adversely impact agriculture, economy, human health, and ecosystems. Thus, a dynamic adaptation strategy should be considered and updated periodically according to acquired knowledge to reveal current uncertainties. In this work, recent studies of climate change impacts on Nile water resources, sea level rise, groundwater, precipitation, evaporation, evapotranspiration, and temperature are revisited for providing helpful literature for future studies in Egypt. Furthermore, the proposed adaptation measures for such climate change impacts are discussed to come up with a robust adaptation strategy for Egypt. The results of the various studies concerning the climate change impact on Nile flows indicate considerable contradictory projections about the future availability of Nile water. Thus, studies for proposing and evaluating several adaptation measures for both the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of the Nile flow still needed as most of the adaptation measures mentioned in the literature are general, descriptive, and not quantified. Studies about the climate change impacts on rainfall, evaporation, evapotranspiration, and groundwater quality and quantity are still limited in Egypt. In addition, research related to improved early warning and prediction, rainfall harvesting techniques, seawater agriculture, salt and tolerant crop varieties, and modern irrigation techniques are essential to cope with future challenges caused by climate change. The review suggests that further investigation is needed to evaluate the possible climate change scenarios of different hydrometeorological processes affecting Egypt’s water resources.
... For this reason, the maximum temperature increases are translated into a rise in the incidence of drought [4,5,54]. In general, the considerable modifications to the climate systems have shown negative precipitation tendencies and positive temperature tendencies in Mexico and globally [54,[67][68][69][70]. ...
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Agriculture and raising livestock are human activities highly affected by drought. In Mexico, the Veracruz territory is seriously affected by this phenomenon. Our study had two objectives: (1) to analyze the drought evolution through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the maximum temperature in the central zone of the state of Veracruz for the period 1980–2018; and (2) to describe the relationship between the yield of corn grain and cattle, and the SPI, in the study area. The methodology consisted of calculating the SPI to estimate the drought conditions in the mentioned area. Subsequently, we determined the relationship of these conditions with the maximum temperature increase and the presence of El Niño/La Niña events. The results showed that the drought has intensified during 1980–2018, having a presence in almost 50% of the area. Additionally, the maximum temperature increased by approximately 6 °C. As a result, the cultivation of corn grain under rain conditions showed reductions in 48% of the analyzed municipalities. Concerning livestock variables, lower reductions were reported (42–32%) for the same period. Therefore, we can conclude that the drought has intensified in recent years due to an increase in the maximum temperature and El Niño/La Niña events, and these factors have had a higher impact on the agricultural sector.
... This month is among the hottest months in the country, characterised by high ambient temperature, high solar radiation, and long sunshine hours, as indicated in Fig. 5a. Moreover, it has been noticed that this temperature trend keeps high year by year [56], as shown in the historical data presented in Fig. 5b. ...
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Phase change materials (PCMs) can beneficially work as a successful thermal energy storage medium in different applications. PCMs have shown a remarkable enhancement in building energy-saving and thermal comfort in hot locations. In this paper, the thermal behaviour of a PCM-enhanced thermally-poor building envelope is studied experimentally. To this aim, two identical rooms, one loaded with PCM (PCM room) and the other without (reference room), are built and tested under a severe hot climate of Al Amarah city, Iraq. Previously examined parameters, such as the optimal position and thickness of the PCM layer in the roof and the best-thermally performed PCM capsules integrated concrete bricks, are considered to build the PCM room. Several energetic and thermal comfort indicators such as maximum temperature reduction (MTR), average temperature fluctuation reduction (ATFR), decrement factor (DF), time lag (TL), operative temperature difference (OTD), discomfort hours reduction (DHR) and maximum heat gain reduction (MHGR) are determined and discussed to show the potential of PCM. The experimental results revealed that the incorporated PCM could remarkably improve the thermal performance of building envelope exposed to high outdoor temperatures. Amongst envelope elements and compared with the reference room, the roof and east wall of the PCM room recorded the best thermal behaviour, where the MTR difference, ATFR, DF, and TL difference reached 3.75 ◦C, 6.5 ◦C, 25.6%, 70 min for the roof, and 2.75 ◦C, 2.4 ◦C, 12.8% and 40 min for the east wall, respectively. Moreover, the PCM room shows a thermal comfort enhancement by 11.2% and 34.8%, considering the DHR and MHGR, respectively, compared with the reference one. The study highlighted that suitable ventilation means are necessary to improve the building performance and reach acceptable thermal comfort when the PCM is incorporated passively.
... In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the temperature has increased significantly more than the global average (see, e.g., van Oldenborgh et al. 2009;Salman et al. 2017;Mostafa et al. 2019). Salman et al. (2018) applied the four RCP scenarios in Iraq after correcting the bias by the scaling approach. ...
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This study projected the future temperature change for Egypt during the late of this century (2071–2100) for three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), by correcting regional climate model (RCM) simulations of average, maximum, and minimum daily temperature with reference to observed data of 26 stations. Four commonly used methods of bias correction have been applied and evaluated: linear scaling, variance scaling, and theoretical and empirical quantile mapping. The compromise programing results of the applied evaluation criteria show that the best method is the variance scaling, and thus it was applied to transfer the correction factor to the projections. All temperature indices are expected to increase significantly under all scenarios and reach the highest record by the end of the century, i.e., the expected increase in average, maximum, and minimum temperature ranges between 4.08–7.41 °C, 4.55–7.89 °C, and 3.88–7.23 °C, respectively. The largest temperature rise will occur in the summer, with the highest increase in the maximum (minimum) temperature of 10.9 °C (10 °C) in July and August under RCP8.5. The maximum (minimum) winter temperature, on the other hand, will drop by a maximum of 2 °C (1.35 °C) under RCP2.6. The Western Desert and Upper Egypt are the regions most affected by climate change, while the northern region of Egypt is the least affected. These findings would help in impact assessment and adaptation strategies and encourage further investigation to evaluate various climate models in order to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the climate change impacts on different hydrometeorological processes in Egypt.
... Iraq is considered one of the countries in the Middle East most affected by global warming and climate change (Salman et al., 2017;Hassan, 2021). The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are increasing, the increase in desertification and sandstorms, noticeable. ...
Article
Iraq is located in a water-stressed area with little of its own water resources. This means that groundwater is one of the main water resources for this region, this true for other countries in the Middle East. The impact of global warming and climate change in the future, through increases in temperature and fluctuations in rainfall, will escalate water scarcity and the degradation of the quality of water across different water resources. In the current study, the impact of future global warming and climate change on groundwater natural recharge in an unconfined aquifer (Umm Er Radhuma), in the Western Desert of Iraq, was assessed using the simulation tool WetSpass. Future climatic parameters pertaining to the study area, were predicted by downscaling a General Circulation Model (GCM), the second Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). CanESM2 was applied to two expected emission representative concentration pathway scenarios; medium RCP4.5 and high RCP8.5, across a period spanning 2020 to 2099, in seven meteorological stations distributed throughout the study region. Based on the statistical indicators from the validation process, the downscaling modeling operation was deemed efficient at predicting climate parameters (average temperature, precipitation and wind speed) during the chosen period. The calibrated future simulations scenarios projected that precipitation will decrease by 9.2% and 14.1% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios, respectively. The temperature will increase by 0.96°C under RCP4.5 and 2.05°C for RCP8.5. Annual groundwater recharge is predicted to decrease by 13.6% and 21.2 %, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively, by the end of the present century.
... Droughts are exceptional once compared with other natural disasters, as they emerge slowly and have higher longevity. Defining drought arrival, duration, and the end is ambiguous as its effects only appear gradually as agriculture is more drastically affected by drought than other natural disasters (Lake 2003;Samarah 2005;European Commission 2007;Wilhite et al. 2007;Farooq et al. 2009;Mishra and Singh 2011;Trenberth et al. 2014;Wilhite et al. 2014;Ahmed et al. 2016;Salman et al. 2017;Ahmed et al. 2018;Khan et al. 2019;Qutbudin 2019;Shiru et al. 2019). ...
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Drought is caused by the imbalances in the factors that make up the hydrological cycle, especially the rainfall. Droughts triggered by climate change can occur anywhere in the world. This study aims to conduct a detailed seasonal drought analysis through the monthly precipitation statistics of 126 observational points in Turkey during 1925–2016. The drought analysis was performed for four different periods: 1925–1949, 1950–1974, 1975–1999, and 2000–2016. First, the standardized precipitation index values were calculated with the Pearson Type III distribution. The 3-month period, used in seasonal drought analysis, was preferred. Information about the course of drought was obtained with the Mann–Kendall trend analysis. The severity, duration, and frequency of drought were found with the Theory of Runs model. The joint return period of drought severity and drought duration were obtained with the copula approach. The mapping was done with the inverse distance weighted method. The findings indicate that the lowest SPI value (− 2.12) was observed in spring 1972 and the highest SPI value (2.14) was observed in winter 1941. Very dry conditions were recorded with a frequency of 16% in the spring season of the 1925–1949 period; the most normal arid conditions were documented in the autumn season of 1950–1974 with a frequency of 52%. Extreme drought conditions were reported in the spring season in 1992. While there was an insignificant increase in drought in spring, summer, and winter, a significant increase was observed in autumn especially interior parts of Turkey. Theory of Runs results indicate that the highest intensity, with a value over 2, was observed in the southeast of Turkey during the winter and spring seasons during the 1925–2016 period. The Frank copula function was found to be the most suitable function in calculations of the drought severity and duration calculation for Turkey. The return periods of weak, moderate, and severe droughts were between 127.53 and 78.96, 68.85 and 59.60, 60.28 and 57.65 months, respectively. It was determined that the drought severity increased in the inner regions during the 20- and 100-year drought return periods with the values varying between 5 and 16, 7, and 32, respectively.
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When the confirmed COVIDs cases were raised in Iraq in the middle of Feb. 2021, the Iraqi government performed a closure approach to constrain mobility movements, factory operations and keeping private social distance. In this research, the concentrations of air components (PM5 2.5 , PM 10 , NO 2 , and O 3 ), which represent herein the degree of air quality index (AQI), are recorded, drawn, and evaluated over the central (Baghdad the capital), northern (Kirkuk province), southern (Basra province) of Iraq before and during the closure. The duration experiment of this research is 6 months (from 1 Jan. 2021 to 30 Jun. 2021), which included four durations: Pre-closure, first closure (total and partial), second closure (total and partial), and third closure (partial). Besides, the total-closure and partial-closure impact on the quality of the atmosphere layer is evaluated and assessed over Iraq in terms of SENTINEL – 5PSATELLITE/TROPOMI and GIOVANNE – EARTH – DATA images. The results revealed that air pollutants were dropped during the closure time except at the end of the 3 rd period of closure due to the lack of people commitment by breaking the closure strategy based on economic reasons. It was observed that the lockdown is one of the best solutions to defeat the Coronavirus pandemic and significantly improve the air quality index, although it has several disadvantages effects on the economic front of the country. Eventually, since people stay at their residence home, the concentration of air pollutants becomes low and the air quality index getting better.
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Extreme winter warming can affect many aspects of environmental and human related activities. It can be disastrous, especially in arid regions. However, no specific research has been carried out on detecting winter warming in Iran. To address this research gap, this study was performed to investigate winter warming in the arid and semi-arid areas located in northeastern Iran. For this purpose, anomalies of minimum and maximum daily temperature, average daily temperature, mean daily temperature range and mean daily precipitation were studied on monthly, seasonal, annual and decadal scales. Along with this, the trend in the data was analyzed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test. The results showed that since the 1990s there has been a significant increase in temperature positive anomalies at most stations. In addition, the precipitation anomaly mutations occurred later than temperature. In most cases the increase in winter anomalies was higher than the average annual anomalies. As an example, the maximum winter temperature anomaly increased from 0.38 °C in the 1990s to 2.07 °C in the 2000s at Mashhad station. Due to the simultaneous increase in anomalies at most stations, the detected winter warming is more likely to be the result of global warming rather than local synoptic climate. HIGHLIGHTS This is the 1st study solely dedicated to assessing the winter warming phenomenon on a local scale in Iran.; The present study confirmed that winter warming has occurred since the 1990s.; The warming time in every decade occurred earlier than the previous decade.; The precipitation's anomaly mutation occurred later than the temperature's.; The quantification of winter warming in this paper can provide valuable information for water management in arid areas.;
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Rape is one of the most heinous forms of violence against women around the world. People are getting more civilized and educated but this gruesome crime is increasing in an alarming rate. Moreover, it is the least reported crime in the world and sadly Bangladesh is no exception. This social misdeed is creating a society that disregards women and children’s rights and safety. As an effect, victims are blamed in most cases and rapist get away through the loophole of the law. Thus there is an unending sufferings of victim and their families are humiliated or disgraced in the society. The purpose of this research is to show how the rights of rape victims are protected in Bangladesh. This paper is also going to manifest in what extent those provisions are applicable in a practical way. This study also evaluated various Bangladeshi laws and tried to find out the barriers to execute them. The paper has identified many loopholes in the existing legal system and provided recommendations to stop this despicable social illness.
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For any foreign investors, protection of their investment is a primary concern in host states. National legislation and any BITs usually provide legal security to them so that they can exercise their desired economic freedom in host countries. Without legal safeguards of their investments, they will not be motivated to invest their capital further. Like other host states, generally, national laws and BITs of Bangladesh significantly provide guaranteeing to investment protection against expropriation. This paper will discuss the existing legal framework in relation to expropriation of FDI in Bangladesh. In this relation, the Constitution of Bangladesh, FDI legislation, various ICSID cases, BITs and conflicts between Bangladesh and foreign investors are discussed. It also covers issues and challenges of expropriation in Bangladesh. Findings show that expropriation arrangements in Bangladesh are not up to the international standard and require significant development. Recommendations are provided for consideration.
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The global shutdown resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic led the manpower industry to go through the toughest time in its history. As a result, Bangladeshi workers, on whom the wheel of the economy of Bangladesh is heavily dependent, are facing racism and systematic abuse of human rights across the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) countries. Even prior to the pandemic they are either exploited or not provided the working conditions and remunerations that they were promised. In this context, this study focuses to address the violation of human rights of migrant workers including their families due to the after-effect of COVID-19 epidemic and to identify the barriers they are facing in GCC countries. Using the quantitative and qualitative research method, this study will explore whether there is any legal solution for those migrant workers and their families, and what sorts of rights need to be protected under National and International laws. In addition, this study will also focus on the responsibilities of their home and host states to fulfill them. Based on the findings, this study will provide various recommendation that could be considered by the Government of Bangladesh either by building skilled workers or by improving the enforcement of existing legislation or by bilateral investment treaties (BITs) with the Gulf State.
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The extreme temperature has become more frequent and intense due to global warming, particularly in dry regions, causing devastating impacts on humans and ecosystems. The transboundary Amu river basin (ARB) is the most vulnerable region in Central Asia (CA) to extreme weather linked to climate change. This study aimed to project warm and cold extremes in ARB for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and two time-horizons, 2020–2059 and 2060-2099, using daily maximum (T max ) and minimum temperature (T min ) simulations of global climate models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase six (CMIP6). Results revealed that the basin's west experiences more hot extremes and the east more cold extremes. Climate change would cause a significant increase in the annual mean of T max and T min . However, the increase in mean T min would be much higher (5.0ºC ) than the mean T max (4.6ºC ). It would cause an increase in the hot extremes and a decrease in the cold extremes in the basin. The higher increase in the hot extremes would be in the west, while the higher decrease in the cold extreme in the basin's east. The number of days above 40℃ would increase from 45 to 60 days in the basin's west and northwest compared to the historical period. The number of days below -20℃ would decrease up to 45 days in the basin's east. Overall, the decrease in cold extremes would be much faster than the increase in hot extremes.
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This review targets predicted the change in temperature and humidity in previous studies. Objectives of the present study establish what is known about moisture and temperature conditions in climate and any measurable shifts in Iraq's mean monthly temperatures over the last few decades are assessed.
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The phenomenon of dust storms occurs in areas that are characterized by drought, and lack of rainfalls. There are many such areas around the world, including the Middle East in general and large parts of Iraq in particular. In the last week of October 2017, a severe dust storm occurred over Iraq and lasted for four days, the aim of this work was to investigate the synoptic situation of this severe storm using remote sensing data. Data include daily true-color images, Aerosols Index (AI), surface weather maps, and 850 Mb weather maps. These data were analyzed for the four days of the storm (28-31 Oct 2017). The results showed that the storm was triggered on the 28th of October over the northwestern part of Iraq. The weather maps revealed that the cause, development, and transport of this storm were caused by a low-pressure system. This system was developed just over the source area of dust on the first day of the storm, and two ridges in which one has existed over the north of Iran and the second advanced from Egypt during the second day of the storm. The pattern of the trough and two ridges on the second and third day caused the storm to halt over central and southwestern areas of Iraq and the northern border of Saudi Arabia with Iraq. On the fourth day, the storm was moved by the northwesterly wind towards the south of Iraq and Kuwait.
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Temperature patterns and trends influence many sectors. The newly planned industrial corridors will have to consider the variations in temperature and other climatic parameters. The present article aims to investigate the patterns and trends of maximum and minimum temperature at the Sub-division (sub-district) level. We analyse annual and seasonal temperature data from 1958 to 2018 for the India’s first east-coast corridor, the Visakhapatnam–Chennai industrial corridor (VCIC) using a combination of Getis–Ord–Gi and Mann–Kendall trend test for spatiotemporal patterns and trends. The results show domination of intensifying hot spots across the VCIC and an overall increase in both maximum and minimum temperature for annual (0.013 o C/y and 0.011 o C/y) and seasonal trends. However, the variations of pattern and trends are unambiguous within districts. There is a clear distinction in patterns and trends between southern and north-eastern districts, indicating the need for localised planning. As the industrial areas are planned at a microlevel, such studies will enable planners and decision-makers to plan and prioritise site-specific climate change adaptation and mitigation measures in industrial and urban areas.
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Climate change and its effects are among the most important challenges facing a man in the 21st century. The current study dealt with the evaluation of temporal and spatial trends of indicators of daily maximum and minimum temperature extremes in Iraq for the period (1985 - 2020). Using ten indicators to measure thermal extremes based on the data of the European Centre for Weather Forecasts Medium-range (ECMWF) for twelve grid points representing Iraq stations, using (Rho) test, linear regression equation. The results of the study revealed a trend towards an increase in the (TXx, TXn, TNx, TNn) indicators and the highest amount of increase in the (TXn) indicator ) by (0.49) °C per decade, with statistical significance at the annual level, and the northern regions were the most changeable in the mentioned indicators The indicators of cold days and nights (TX10p, TN10p) recorded a decreasing trend, and the highest amount of decrease in the cold days index was (2.6-) % for the decade. The indicators of hot days and nights (TX90p, TN90p) witnessed an increasing trend with high statistical significance, and the highest amount of increase in the indicator of hot days was by (2.9%) for Decade. As for the indicator of summer days (SU) and tropical nights (TR) also recorded a clear trend towards increase and reached the highest amount of increase in class days by (4.3) days per decade with statistical significance The current results confirm the increase of climatic extremes due to the phenomenon of global warming, and thus . The importance of the results of the study show the future challenges facing Iraq in the coming decades, especially on water resources, food security, human health, and energy consumption, which requires setting appropriate policies to adapt to climate changes and their future effects
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The knowledge of spatiotemporal distribution of climate variables is essential for most of hydro-climatic studies. However, scarcity or sparsity of long-term observations is one of the major obstacles for such studies. The main objective of this study is to develop a methodological framework for the generation of high-resolution gridded historical and future climate projection data for a data-scarce region. Egypt and its densely populated central north region (CNE) were considered as the study area. First, several existing gridded datasets were evaluated in reproducing the historical climate. The performances of five high-resolution satellite-based daily precipitation products were evaluated against gauges records using continuous and categorical metrics and selected intensity categories. In addition, two intelligent algorithms, symmetrical uncertainty (SU) and random forest (RF) are proposed for the evaluation of gridded monthly climate datasets. Second, a new framework is proposed to develop highresolution daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmx and Tmn) datasets by using the robust kernel density distribution mapping method to correct the bias in interpolated observation estimates and WorldClim v.2 temperature climatology to adjust the spatial variability in temperature. Third, a new framework is proposed for the selection of Global Climate Models (GCMs) based on their ability to reproduce the spatial pattern for different climate variables. The Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE) was used to assess GCMs in simulating the annual spatial patterns of Tmx, Tmn, and rainfall. The mean and standard deviation of KGEs were incorporated in a multi‐criteria decision‐making approach known as a global performance indicator for the ranking of GCMs. Fourth, several bias-correction methods were evaluated to identify the most suitable method for downscaling of the selected GCM simulations for the projection of high-resolution gridded climate data. The results revealed relatively better performance of GSMaP compared to other satellite-based rainfall products. The SU and RF were found as efficient methods for evaluating gridded monthly climate datasets and avoid the contradictory results often obtained by conventional statistics. Application of SU and RF revealed that GPCC rainfall and UDel temperature datasets as the best products for Egypt. The validation of the 0.05°×0.05° CNE datasets showed remarkable improvement in replicating the spatiotemporal variability in observed temperature. The new approached proposed for the selection of GCMs revealed that MRI‐CGCM3 gives the best performance and followed by FGOALS‐g2, GFDL‐ESM2G, GFDL‐CM3 and lastly MPI‐ESM‐MR over Egypt. The selected GCMs projected an increase in Tmx and Tmn in the range of 2.42 to 4.20°C and 2.34 to 4.43°C respectively for different scenarios by the end of the century. Winter temperature is projected to increase higher than summer temperature. For rainfall, a 62% reduction over the northern coastline is projected where rain is currently most abundant with an increase of rainfall over the dry southern zones. Linear and variance scaling methods were found suitable for developing bias-free high-resolution projections of rainfall and temperatures, respectively. As for the CNE, the high resolution projections showed a rise in maximum (1.80 to 3.48°C) and minimum (1.88 to 3.49°C) temperature and change in rainfall depth (-96.04 to 36.51%) by the end of the century, which could have severe implications for this highly populated region.
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Owing to the increasing population in Kirkuk, Iraq and the consequent rise in the production of waste, alongside with global warming caused by an increase in the greenhouse gases concentrations, a high level of emissions was observed at the landfill site near Kirkuk. These emissions can be transmitted by the wind over considerable distances and adversely affect the environment and individual health. In this study, two pilot scale columns were built to investigate different options for achieving sustainability by reducing long-term landfill emissions. Each reactor was packed with (8.5) kg of shredded synthetic solid waste (less than 5 cm) that was prepared according to an average composition of domestic solid waste in the city of Kirkuk. The main result of this study was that the pretreatment of the waste may shorten the transition time for active methane development and increase the methanogenesis of the landfill site and also affects COD removals efficiencies which were 19.11% and 66.53% for columns A and B respectively.
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Global climate change and its consequences on the ecosystems have been of big concern by the majority of the world countries. Iraq as part of the Middle East is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Most of climate change researches in Iraq focused on major cities such as Baghdad, Mosul, and Basra. This work aimed at determining the trends of temperature and precipitation for the city of Hilla during the past 10 decades. To accomplish this purpose, high-resolution gridded data obtained from the University of Delaware were analysed. The results showed that temperature trend was increasing and most warming period happened during the past 20 years, especially during summer when monthly mean of daily temperature exceeds 35 o C. Results of Mann-Kendall test no trend exist for the months of January, February, October, November, and December. Analysis of precipitation time series indicated that highest precipitation over Hilla city occurred during the early decades of 1910s and 1920s, that mount gradually declined, and the lowest precipitation occurred during the last 20 years when precipitation rate was always below the 115 years mean value. Applying Mann-Kendall test on the annual precipitation time series showed that there is a statistically significant decreasing trend. The significance of study is to provide detailed information on the effect of global warming on the local climate of Hilla city.
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Changes in snowmelt-related streamflow timing have implications for water availability and use as well as ecologically relevant shifts in streamflow. Historical trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing (winter-spring center volume date, WSCVD) were computed for minimally disturbed river basins in the conterminous United States. WSCVD was computed by summing daily streamflow for a seasonal window then calculating the day that half of the seasonal volume had flowed past the gage. We used basins where at least 30 percent of annual precipitation was received as snow, and streamflow data were restricted to regionally based winter-spring periods to focus the analyses on snowmelt-related streamflow. Trends over time in WSCVD at gages in the eastern U.S. were relatively homogenous in magnitude and direction and statistically significant; median WSCVD was earlier by 8.2 days (1.1 days/decade) and 8.6 days (1.6 days/decade) for 1940–2014 and 1960–2014 periods respectively. Fewer trends in the West were significant though most trends indicated earlier WSCVD over time. Trends at low-to-mid elevation (
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Objectives: A request to report laboratory values to a specific number of decimal places represents a delicate balance between clinical interpretation of a true analytical change versus laboratory understanding of analytical imprecision and significant figures. Prostate specific antigen (PSA) was used as an example to determine if an immunoassay routinely reported to the hundredths decimal place based on significant figure assessment in our laboratory was capable of providing analytically meaningful results when reported to the thousandths places when requested by clinicians. Design and methods: Results of imprecision studies of a representative PSA assay (Roche MODULAR E170) employing two methods of statistical analysis are reported. Sample pools were generated with target values of 0.01 and 0.20 μg/L PSA as determined by the E170. Intra-assay imprecision studies were conducted and the resultant data were analyzed using two independent statistical methods to evaluate reporting limits. Results: These statistical methods indicated reporting results to the thousandths place at the two assessed concentrations was an appropriate reflection of the measurement imprecision for the representative assay. This approach used two independent statistical tests to determine the ability of an analytical system to support a desired reporting level. Importantly, data were generated during a routine intra-assay imprecision study, thus this approach does not require extra data collection by the laboratory. Conclusions: Independent statistical analysis must be used to determine appropriate significant figure limitations for clinically relevant analytes. Establishing these limits is the responsibility of the laboratory and should be determined prior to providing clinical results.
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Study region: Namibia. Study focus: The lack of ground observations has long been a major obstacle in studying rainfall patterns in many dryland regions, particularly in the data scarce African continent. In this study, a continuous 6-year (2008–2013) daily record of ground observations collected from Weltevrede Farm at the edge of the Namib Desert was used to evaluate TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA, 0.25° resolution) daily rainfall estimates of this area. A Mann-Kendall trend analysis was conducted using all the available annual TMPA satellite data (1998–2015) to examine long-term trends in rainfall amount, intensity, frequency and seasonal variations over four locations across a rainfall gradient. New hydrological insights for the region: The agreement between ground and satellite rainfall data was generally good at annual/monthly scales but large variations were observed at the daily scale. Results showed a spatial variability of rainfall trends across the rainfall gradient. We observed significant changes in frequency along with insignificant changes in intensity and no changes in total amount for the driest location, but no changes in any of the rainfall parameters were observed for the three wetter locations. The results also showed increased rainfall variability for the driest location. This study provided a useful approach of using TMPA data associated with trend analysis to extend the data record for ecohydrological studies for similar data scarce conditions. The results of this study will also help constrain IPCC predictions in this region.
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This study focuses on the use of science sources as experts in news stories about climate change coverage in the Great Lakes region of the US and Canada. We examine, using the hierarchy of influences model, whether the use of scientific sources in climate change coverage may be related to factors such as geographic location, reporting frequency, and authorship, in the prestige press as well as regional and local media. The study found that as many or more non-scientists than scientists are selected as sources regardless of geographic location, reporting frequency, or authorship. However, the study also found that the more stories reporters produce on this topic, the more likely their stories are to use and give prominence to science sources. In addition, the articles included few denier sources, but denier views are more likely to appear in a more prominent location in the articles than supporters when stories are framed as conflict over global warming. These results highlight the need for additional research examining the expertise of climate scientists in news stories to better understand news decision-making in the context of complex scientific reporting.
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Mean annual and monthly averages of mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature from seven stations in Iraq were analysed to detect the inter-annual variation, long-term temporal and spatial trends distribution over the period 1941–2013. Due to non-homogeneous problems, this period has been divided into two short separated periods (1941–1980 and 1995–2013), in order to compute temperature trends. In this context two statistical tests were used: linear regression and Mann-Kendall. The time series of mean annual temperature indicate the current warming period over Iraq identical with the global warming, which has started since the middle of seventh decade of the last century. The 2010 was the warmest year in all stations. Three distinct inter-annual temperature variation patterns were observed. These were probably the effects of micro-scale and meso-scale factors. The first one represents central and northern Iraq. The second represents the south of Iraq and Kirkuk station and the third one is a characteristic for eastern Iraq. Temperature trend analysis revealed that there are general upward trends with the strongest warming trends identified in the summer months which are around 89 % of the total significant monthly trends. Spatially, in both periods the southern region of Iraq is most affected by the warming trend in Tmean and Tmax. When considering Tmin, the southern and northern regions both are affected by warming with more pronounced trend intensity in the northern stations. No significant trend occurs Hai station in both periods and Baghdad has the still less trend value. In the first period the highest rise of Tmean and Tmax values are observed in July and June in Nasiriya station at 0.61 °C/decade and 0.63 °C/decade, respectively and in Mosul station for Tmin in August is 1.41 °C/decade. Moreover, in the period from 1995 to 2013, the highest warming trend of Tmean and Tmax were in Hai station for March at 1.48 °C/decade and at 1.85 °C/decade, respectively. Baghdad station experienced the highest significant trend for Tmin in August at 1.89 °C/decade.
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The ensemble results of CMIP5 climate models that applied the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used to investigate climate change and temperature extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Uncertainty evaluation of climate projections indicates good model agreement for temperature but much less for precipitation. Results imply that climate warming in the MENA is strongest in summer while elsewhere it is typically stronger in winter. The summertime warming extends the thermal low at the surface from South Asia across the Middle East over North Africa, as the hot desert climate intensifies and becomes more extreme. Observations and model calculations of the recent past consistently show increasing heat extremes, which are projected to accelerate in future. The number of warm days and nights may increase sharply. On average in the MENA, the maximum temperature during the hottest days in the recent past was about 43 °C, which could increase to about 46 °C by the middle of the century and reach almost 50 °C by the end of the century, the latter according to the RCP8.5 (business-as-usual) scenario. This will have important consequences for human health and society.
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Due to the substantial decrease of water resources as well as the increase in demand and climate change phenomenon, analyzing the trend of hydrological parameters is of paramount importance. In the present study, investigations were carried out to identify the trends in streamflow at 20 hydrometric stations and 11 rainfall gauging stations located in Karkheh River Basin (KRB), Iran, in monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales during the last 38 years from 1974 to 2011. This study has been conducted using two versions of Mann–Kendall tests, including (i) Mann–Kendall test by considering all the significant autocorrelation structure (MK3) and (ii) Mann–Kendall test by considering LTP and Hurst coefficient (MK4). The results indicate that the KRB streamflow trend (using both test versions) has decreased in all three time scales. There is a significant decreasing trend in 78 and 73 % of the monthly cases using the MK3 and MK4 tests, respectively, while these percentages changed to 80 and 70 % on seasonal and annual time scales, respectively. Investigation of the trend line slope using Theil–Sen’s estimator showed a negative trend in all three time scales. The use of MK4 test instead of the MK3 test has caused a decrease in the significance level of Mann–Kendall Z-statistic values. The results of the precipitation trends indicate both increasing and decreasing trends. Also, the correlation between the area average streamflow and precipitation shows a strong correlation in annual time scale in the KRB.
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In this work, the design and power consumption analysis of NOR based 4 × 4 semiconductor read-only-memory (ROM) array has been presented. In this study, row decoder and column decoder has been considered in order to retrieve the data from ROM array. All the circuits are designed using nanodimensional metal oxide semiconductor (MOS) transistor. The average power consumption across the ROM array structure has been reported for the MOS transistors with channel length of 32, 22 and 16 nm. Selecting the row lines and column lines using row decoder and column decoder, data written inside the ROM array has been retrieved. In order to verify the data inside the ROM array, simulated waveforms are presented. Overall design and power consumption analysis of the ROM array in nano regime has been analyzed with the help of Tanner SPICE (T-SPICE) tools. It is seen that as power supply voltage VDD increases the average power consumption across the ROM structure also increases. This indicates that for low power design the value of VDD needs to be downscaled. Comparison of the average power consumption for MOS transistors having channel length 32, 22 and 16 nm has been reported.
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In this study, trends of the seasonal and annual maximum (T-max), minimum (T-min), and mean (T) air temperatures, as well as rainfall amounts (R-a) time series were investigated for eleven stations in Iraq for the period 1972-2011 (40 years). Four statistical tests including homogeneity, Mann-Kendall (MK), Sen's slope estimator and linear regression were used for the analysis. The results revealed that annual mean of T-max, T-min, and T time series showed statistically significant increasing trends over 81.8, 100, and 100% of the stations at the 0.001 level and they experienced an increase of 0.50, 0.67, and 0.58 degrees C/decade, respectively; while the annual rainfall has shown decreasing trends at 90.9% of the stations and it experienced a decrease of -20.50 mm/decade. Seasonally, the highest increase of T-max, T-min, and T values have been found over the extreme south of the country during summer at the rates of 1.47, 1.06, and 1.16 degrees C/decade, respectively, while the highest decrease of R-a values has been found in the northern part of the country during winter at the rate of -36.35 mm/decade.
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This study is an extensive revision of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) land station temperature database that has been used to produce a grid-box data set of 5° latitude × 5° longitude temperature anomalies. The new database (CRUTEM4) comprises 5583 station records of which 4842 have enough data for the 1961-1990 period to calculate or estimate the average temperatures for this period. Many station records have had their data replaced by newly homogenized series that have been produced by a number of studies, particularly from National Meteorological Services (NMSs). Hemispheric temperature averages for land areas developed with the new CRUTEM4 data set differ slightly from their CRUTEM3 equivalent. The inclusion of much additional data from the Arctic (particularly the Russian Arctic) has led to estimates for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) being warmer by about 0.1°C for the years since 2001. The NH/Southern Hemisphere (SH) warms by 1.12°C/0.84°C over the period 1901-2010. The robustness of the hemispheric averages is assessed by producing five different analyses, each including a different subset of 20% of the station time series and by omitting some large countries. CRUTEM4 is also compared with hemispheric averages produced by reanalyses undertaken by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 (1958-2001) and ERA-Interim (1979-2010) data sets. For the NH, agreement is good back to 1958 and excellent from 1979 at monthly, annual, and decadal time scales. For the SH, agreement is poorer, but if the area is restricted to the SH north of 60°S, the agreement is dramatically improved from the mid-1970s.
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We overview studies of the natural variability of past climate, as seen from available proxy information, and its attribution to deterministic or stochastic controls. Furthermore, we characterize this variability over the widest possible range of scales that the available information allows, and we try to connect the deterministic Milankovitch cycles with the Hurst–Kolmogorov (HK) stochastic dynamics. To this aim, we analyse two instrumental series of global temperature and eight proxy series with varying lengths from 2 thousand to 500 million years. In our analysis, we use a simple tool, the climacogram, which is the logarithmic plot of standard deviation versus time scale, and its slope can be used to identify the presence of HK dynamics. By superimposing the climacograms of the different series, we obtain an impressive overview of the variability for time scales spanning almost nine orders of magnitude—from 1 month to 50 million years. An overall climacogram slope of −0.08 supports the presence of HK dynamics with Hurst coefficient of at least 0.92. The orbital forcing (Milankovitch cycles) is also evident in the combined climacogram at time scales between 10 and 100 thousand years. While orbital forcing favours predictability at the scales it acts, the overview of climate variability at all scales suggests a big picture of irregular change and uncertainty of Earth’s climate.
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The present study intends to show the effect of climate change on trends and patterns of temperature over the southwestern part of Iran. The research has been divided into two parts. The first part consists of an analysis of the temperature trends of mean temperature (TM), maximum temperature (TMAX), and minimum temperature (TMIN) over 39 stations in the study region for the period 1950–2007. The trends in these parameters were detected by linear regression, and significance was tested by t test. Mann–Kendall rank test (MK test) was also employed to confirm the results. The second part of the research involved future projection of temperature based on four models. The models used were Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, European Center Hamburg Model, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, and UK Meteorological Office. Temperature projections were done under B1 and A1B emissions scenarios. The analysis of temperature trends revealed a significant increase during summer and spring seasons. TMAX was stable than TMIN and TM, and winter was stable as compared with summer, spring, and autumn seasons. Results of modeling showed that temperature may increase between 1.69 and 6.88 °C by 2100 in the study area. Summer temperatures may increase with higher rates than spring, winter, and autumn temperatures.