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From the Glaciers to the Aral Sea: Water Unites

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... Source: Dukhovny and Schutter (2011: 272-273) Despite the centralized water management system's success in developing massive irrigation systems and hydrological management infrastructure, considering water needs of the ecosystems and maintaining appropriate environmental water flows were neglected. Instead, the ideology of "conquering the nature" was propagated (Sehring and Diebold 2012). As a consequence, environmental disasters such as the Aral Sea desiccation made this conventional development path unsustainable. ...
... Additionally, there was poor coordination among the different agencies of the central MinVodKhoz that had overlapping tasks. Furthermore, a lack of economic incentives to use water resources efficiently and absence of stakeholder participation, resulted in inconsistencies and water overuse (Sehring and Diebold 2012). Farmers (members of the collective farms-kolkhozes) did not have any incentives to use water more efficiently since they were rewarded only for meeting production targets (Weinthal 2002:93). ...
... One of the main activities of IFAS was to implement the Aral Sea Basin Program (ASBP; 1993-2002) as a joint action plan with the WB, UNDP, and UNEP. This plan proposed to maintain a sustainable environment in the ASB, restore the environmentally devastated zones adjacent to the sea, promote improved water management on the transboundary rivers, and maintain the capacity of the regional and local water management organizations responsible for the implementation of the plan (Sehring and Diebold 2012). In 2003, IFAS prepared a second phase of the ASBP (ASBP-II; 2011-2015). ...
Thesis
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https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:5n-36093 Increasing water demand challenges policy makers to implement in-time and effective water management measures to mitigate both the on-going and upcoming water crisis in the Aral Sea basin (ASB) of Central Asia. The shrinkage of the Aral Sea due to the rapid expansion of irrigated agriculture along the two main rivers of the basin the Amu Darya and Syr Darya which accompanied by water overuse is at the core of the all water related problems. Various hypothetical including massive inter-basin water transfers, have been considered to ease the water challenge. Yet, given the enormous conveyance and water application losses in the irrigation system combined with ineffective coordination of the basin resources among the riparian countries in both the Amu and Syr Darya basins, increasing the efficiency of using internal water resources is more technically and financially feasible option. Furthermore, water management measures must address the root causes of water scarcity and ecological deterioration rather than attempting to deal with the consequences of the problem only. This study examines therefore three important options for addressing the core reasons of aggravated water (ab)use in the ASB. In the first option, sectoral transformations (e.g., economic restructuring) are considered by prioritizing economic activities with relatively high economic growth impacts and low water consumption requirements. In the second option, it is assessed to replace the current administrative water management institutions with more effective market-based water allocation institutions to encourage cooperation among regional water users for attaining optimal basin-wide benefits. In the third option, technological and infrastructural improvements are evaluated following an increased efficiency of the irrigation systems and building reservoirs in the upper reaches of the rivers to regulate river flow. Economic restructuring was analyzed by ranking all economic sectors based on their sustainable economic growth potentials using an environmentally extended input-output model. The forward and backward linkages and the total (direct and indirect)water requirements of the different economic activities were estimated and compared as well. The results indicated that water demand in the ASB can be reduced substantially by decreasing the production of the water intensive sectors such as agriculture in favor of the development of less water demanding, non-agricultural sectors. Within the agriculture sector, crop diversifications are recommendable, e.g.by partially replacing rice cultivation and cotton production, which have the highest total (direct and indirect) water use contents of 36 m3/USD and 18.4 m3/USD respectively, with high water productive crops such as fruits/vegetables with total water use of 9.1 m3/USD. Potential effects of replacing the traditional administrative water allocation system with market-based water allocation approaches were examined through an aggregated hydro-economic model. Substantial basin-wide economic gains is appeared feasible when the trade of water rights among all irrigation zones is allowed in each river basin(the Amu Darya or Syr Darya). Total benefits under restricted water rights trading by permitting a trade only among the regions located within each upstream, midstream, and downstream sub-basins(catchments)is lower than the total economic gains of unrestricted water rights trading but is still higher than total benefits of the option without trading. Depending on water availability, the amount of additional annual gains ranged between $373 and 476 million USD under an inter-catchment (unrestricted) water rights trading system whereas additional annual gains of $259 339 million USD were predicted under intra-catchment(restricted)water rights trading. Benefits from water rights trading increase with growing water scarcity. When purchase of water use rights is considered to enhance environmental flow into the Aral Sea while compensating reduced water withdrawals of agricultural producers, basin-wide economic gains are expected to be higher if water rights trading among irrigation zones are allowed rather than prohibited. Moreover, the cost of purchasing water use rights for environmental needs is less expensive compared to an interbasin water transfer. Since the establishment and operation of market-based water allocation institutions comes with costs, the transaction costs of introducing tradable water use rights were considered in assessing the effectiveness of such institutional changes. An inverse relationship were found between the benefits of water rights trading and its transaction costs. Results showed furthermore that transaction costs of more than $0.05 USD per m3 of water use rights eliminate the potential benefits of a water trading option. Technical improvements to raise the efficiency of water use and water coordination were analyzed through a disaggregated hydro-economic model. Substantial benefits can be expected from improving irrigation (conveyance and water application) efficiencies in the ASB. Total basin-wide benefits can increase by 20% to 40% depending on basin-wide water availability when irrigation system efficiencies are optimized across the basin. The findings showed also that a construction of upstream reservoirs as intensely debated at present by up- and downstream countries in Central Asia does not considerably influence on the irrigation water availability if these reservoirs are operated with the objective of providing optimal basin-wide benefits. In contrast, constructing additional dams can boost hydropower production. Particularly, additional hydropower production benefits are expected to be considerably higher from the construction of the Kambarata reservoir than those from the construction of the Rogun dam because of higher investment costs of the latter. Thus, the construction of dams upstream can increase national and regional energy security due to 65-67% increase in hydropower production levels. Yet, the risks of flooding related to natural and political calamities and reduced downstream water availability during the period of filling the reservoirs should be evaluated further for a more comprehensive assessment of such infrastructural developments. High risks of using upstream reservoirs as a tool of geopolitical influence and consequent damage on downstream irrigation and environmental systems should not be forgotten as well. Establishing effective relationships among the riparian countries, ensuring the rule of law, empowering water users for decision making, raising their awareness on ecological sustainability and market-based management approaches, and maintaining human and technological capacities are also essential for finding a compromise in sharing common basin resources in the ASB. Keywords: Water rights trading, Transaction costs, Environmental flow, Hydro-economic model, irrigation technology, infrastructural development, Rogun dam, Kambarata reservoir, Sectoral transformation, Virtual water, Input-output analysis
... Thus, the runoff from the main water artery of the lowlands in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan -Syrdarya River is projected to decrease by 10-25% to 2100 (Nohara et al. 2006;Sehring and Diebold 2012). Nevertheless, Immerzeel and Bierkens (2012) reported that the water balance of the Syrdarya River is at an average level of risk mainly because of uncertainty in future precipitation. ...
... It is basically formed by the confluence of the Naryn and Karadarya Rivers, which are mainly fed by the snow and glacier melt in the high mountain ranges of the Tien-Shan system. With respect to the climate change effects mentioned above, some studies project the runoff supplying the Syrdarya River to decrease by 10-25% by 2100 (Nohara et al. 2006;Sehring and Diebold 2012). Albeit, it has been suggested by Immerzeel and Bierkens (2012) that there is only an average risk level for the river's water balance because of the high uncertainty in future precipitation patterns. ...
Thesis
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The Ferghana Valley (Central Asia) is a highly-populated and semi-arid region, where is a high demand for the agricultural sector. Therefore, water is crucial for the livelihood here. The river runoff, which comes from the Tien-Shan and Pamir-Alay mountain ranges, contribute to the main river in the valley – the Syrdarya River. The Syrdarya River is formed by the confluence of the two large rivers in the study area – the Naryn and Karadarya rivers. Besides, many small upper river catchments contribute to the water balance in the Ferghana Valley. This study aims at estimating the relative contribution of small upper river catchments vs. the two large rivers to the Syrdarya River and evaluating climate change impact on freshwater availability from the 18 small river catchments in the future period (2071-2100) in the Ferghana Valley. Hydrological modelling is an important tool in investigating and understanding the water balance under current and future climatic conditions. The conceptual lumped hydrological HBV-light model and dynamically downscaled regional climate model REMO along with A1B emission scenario were used in this study to fulfil the main goals. Generally, the results show a decrease of the river runoff by ~10% and a seasonal shift of high flow to the earlier month in the majority of the investigated river catchments.
... Expert interview questions. References [37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46] are cited in the supplementary materials. ...
Article
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There is wide consensus among scholars and practitioners that improved irrigation technologies increase farm productivity and improve resource use efficiency. However, there is also growing empirical evidence that efficiency improvements in irrigation water use may create rebound effects, i.e., they may trigger changes in farmers’ behavior that partly or fully offset the technical water savings expected under ceteris paribus conditions. In extreme cases, total water consumption may even increase. We studied the impacts of introducing water-saving irrigation technologies in Uzbekistan and used structured stakeholder interviews for an expert-based assessment of potential rebound effects. Our findings contribute to the understanding of impacts of technological and institutional responses to environmental and economic pressures in sustaining water resources. The study demonstrates that although the objective of increasing irrigation efficiency may be achieved, the actual water savings under Uzbek conditions are likely to be reduced due to rebound effects. Unless there are effective policy interventions, we expect rebound effects through an increase in water supply for crops that compensates for current shortages of irrigation water availability, an increase in irrigated area, a switch to more water-intensive crops, and overall economic growth. The findings of this paper provide a reference point for estimating the water-saving potential and for evaluating and adapting policies.
... Central Asian countries are among the most water-intensive economies in the world with a mean water withdrawal per capita at 2200 m/year and more than 80% of water used by the downstream countries, mainly for irrigation (Sehring & Diebold, 2012). Irrigated farming in CA was strongly prioritized in Soviet times through the construction of numerous reservoirs, extended supply and drainage networks and large pumping stations. ...
Book
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Current EU development policy provides a general framework and background that justifies a Nexus approach and methodology. Consequently, the New European Consensus on Development: ‘Our World, our Dignity, our Future’ (June 2017) emphasizes an integrated approach to development and strongly supports the 2030 Agenda with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that were adopted in September 2015 as a global framework for sustainable development action. The 2030 Agenda itself emphasizes an integrated approach that can be facilitated by a Nexus methodology. As stated by the former INTPA Director General Stefano MANSERVISI in an interview with DEVEX on 14 June 2018: ‘The SDGs are obliging us to work in an integrated way and not in silos’. The Nexus approach, in its evolution, can now be defined in a number of ways. DG INTPA has supported work on the Nexus from the outset, originally addressing the energy−water−food security (WEF) Nexus. However, ecosystems are increasingly recognized as important contributions to sustainable development solutions and, as a result, the WEF Nexus has evolved into the water−energy−hay−ecosystems Nexus (‘WEFE nexus’). In the following sections, the terms ‘WEFE Nexus’ or ‘Nexus’ in short refers to this concept unless otherwise stated. This document brings together a number of contributions, case studies, and experiences with the aim of highlighting the importance and benefits of the WEFE Nexus as an approach and methodology for development cooperation in general. It makes special reference to the main conclusions of the WEFE Nexus specific workshop held in Brussels jointly organized by JRC and INTPA and held on 25–26 January 2018. The workshop was oriented towards implementing and operationalizing the Nexus approach with the objective of improving the sustainability of the intervention projects and programmes based on the experience of the Nexus experts in a variety of projects and regions. This document should be read as a practical guide to fully understand key aspects of WEFE Nexus and is presented in non-technical language for ease of access and uptake for a wider audience.
... The upstream countries of Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic comprise the water sources of the two major rivers, Amu Darya and Syr Darya, and contribute most of their discharge. They therefore are often considered the "water towers" of Central Asia (Diebold and Sehring 2012). The downstream countries of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan are situated on extensive plains with diverse land cover ranging from desert to grasslands, where most of the water resources are used for irrigation, and they are also endowed with abundant hydrocarbon (coal, oil, gas) resources. ...
... The upstream countries of Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic comprise the water sources of the two major rivers, Amu Darya and Syr Darya, and contribute most of their discharge. They therefore are often considered the "water towers" of Central Asia (Diebold and Sehring 2012). The downstream countries of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan are situated on extensive plains with diverse land cover ranging from desert to grasslands, where most of the water resources are used for irrigation, and they are also endowed with abundant hydrocarbon (coal, oil, gas) resources. ...
... It is basically formed by the confluence of the Naryn and Karadarya Rivers, which are mainly fed by the snow and glacier melt in the high mountain ranges of the Tien Shan system. With respect to the climate change effects mentioned above, some studies project the runoff supplying the Syrdarya River to decrease by 10-25% by 2100 [63,74]. Albeit, it has been suggested [46] that there is only an average risk level for the river's water balance because of the high uncertainty in future precipitation patterns. ...
Conference Paper
Considering increasing temperatures and glacier recession during the last decades, it is of high interest to study the climate change impact on water resources availability in semi-arid regions of Central Asia. The Ferghana Valley is surrounded by the Tien-Shan and Pamiro-Alay mountain systems that store big amounts of water in snowpacks and glaciers. In the valley the agricultural activity of local people strongly depends on available water from the Syrdarya River. The river is formed by the confluence of the Naryn and Karadarya Rivers, which are mainly fed by the glacier and snow melt from the Akshiirak and Ferghana ridges of the aforementioned mountain systems. The small upper river basins of the valley also contribute with runoff (~34 %) to the Syrdarya River. These small rivers are mainly fed by precipitation and seasonal snow melt. Thus, because of climate change and glacier decline, it is necessary to investigate the comparative contribution of the small catchments versus two big river basins to the Syrdarya River system, as these small upper catchments could become more important for future water consumption. In this study the conceptual hydrological HBV-light model has been calibrated and validated for the period 1980-1985 over 18 upper catchments that feed the Syrdarya River from the surrounding mountain ridges. Dynamically downscaled climate change scenarios were then applied up to the year 2100 for these basins. The scenarios were generated by means of Global Circulation Model (ECHAM5) and Regional Climate Model (REMO) with a baseline period from 1971 till 2000. We will present modelling results of water resources, the contribution of small rivers to the Syrdarya River and to what extent this contribution is likely to change in the future. Moreover, the results of simulated potential runoff will be used to develop future climate change adaptation strategies regarding socio-economic and environmental sustainable water use.
... The upstream countries of Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic comprise the water sources of the two major rivers, Amu Darya and Syr Darya, and contribute most of their discharge. They therefore are often considered the "water towers" of Central Asia (Diebold and Sehring 2012). The downstream countries of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan are situated on extensive plains with diverse land cover ranging from desert to grasslands, where most of the water resources are used for irrigation, and they are also endowed with abundant hydrocarbon (coal, oil, gas) resources. ...
Chapter
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In this study, we attempt to identify how the notion of water security has been elaborated in the research literature of the period after independence (1992–2018) for Central Asian countries, and the same period for Afghanistan. We apply an assessment approach to evaluate the role of different dimensions in the structuring of the water security concept in Central Asia. We adopt the framework introduced by the Asian Development Bank (ADB 2013, 2016) for the evaluation of water security in Asia, including Central Asia. This framework is based on five dimensions: household, economic, urban, and environmental water security, as well as resilience to water-related disasters. We further explore if potential features of the research institutes and authors identified along the literature review could affect the selection of particular security dimensions. We conduct a multinomial regression analysis to examine whether the significance of the five security dimensions (dependent variable) could be potentially influenced by the origin of the institutes represented in the literature review, the authors’ origin, and the type of research organization (independent variables). The study findings are compared with the current policy dialogue on water security held through different schemes (such as ministries, regional organizations) between the Central Asian countries.
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Humans have been changing the environment word-wide. Central Asia is a great example of a region that is strongly affected by human (anthropogenic) related activities. Political and economic transformations that have been occurring throughout the region have also been strongly affecting the environment. As a result, unprecedented changes have occurring in the land-use and -cover dynamics, as well as in water use and water availability for crops and human. Anthropogenic changes in Central Asia have significant consequences to the environment and human well-being. This chapter focuses on characterizing anthropogenic signatures in Central Asia, addressing their adverse consequences to the population and the environment of Central Asia. Sections address the anthropogenic dust emission associated with human activities, anthropogenic water use, and human growth. The anthropogenic dust emission is reconstructed by taking into account the changes in the land-cover and land use that have been caused by various human activities, including the drying up of the Aral Sea. The latter is a well-known human made disaster that has a profound impact on the entire region. Drastic changes have been occurring in the water use. The population dynamic causes additional problems. We investigated the rate of change in the intensity of the stable average lights product between 1991 and 2000. While the total percentage of lit land increased (3.1–3.4%) between 1991 and 2000, almost all lit areas in Kazakhstan declined in night light intensity. The only areas with increasing nightlights are some of the core urban areas, the Kenkiyak oil fields south of Aktobe and another oil field to the north of Kyzylorda.
Article
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This paper analyses groundwater resources use and management in the socio-economic context of the Amu Darya River Basin which covers a part of the following landlocked Central Asian countries: Afghanistan, Tajiki-stan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. These agrarian nations for sustaining their vital agricultural productions started to use groundwater during the recent drought years (1998– 2001) because of its relatively good quality and quantity and as an alternative to highly mineralized surface waters. Present extent of groundwater resources use is discussed with consideration to their reserves, quality, and institu-tional management and transboundary aspects within the basin. After the collapse of the centralized water resources management system and infrastructure of the former Soviet Union, new underdeveloped systems are being practiced over the whole Amu Darya River Basin. The critical situ-ation of groundwater management in Afghanistan is also discussed. This work attempts to document the manage-ment and use of groundwater in the Amu Darya Basin and present time management realities, with fragmented and weak national and regional regulation on groundwater. Special attention is given to groundwater resources in irrigated agriculture, which increased use in all countries of the basin is due to quick access to underground resources and relatively good quality and quantity.
Article
An authoritative U.S. analyst of Central Asian water management problems, and former advisor to the Uzbek government on water management issues, surveys the nature and effectiveness of international and regional programs to mitigate the Aral Sea crisis. After first reviewing the history and magnitude of the crisis, the author assesses international and regional assistance programs during the late Soviet period and subsequent initial years of independence for the Central Asian republics within the Aral Basin. A concluding section includes policy recommendations based on the author's extensive experience in the field and familiarity with many of the principal organizations involved.
Article
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 meant that overnight the newly independent Central Asian Republics (CARs) had to assume responsibility for the management and maintenance of a huge, poorly managed and maintained water distribution and irrigation system. Problems emerged almost immediately with lack of funds virtually halting maintenance programmes and the system rapidly deteriorating. Tension over water has also increased with Kyrgyzstan demanding greater access to the water that is generated on its territory. The situation is likely to worsen as government-backed policies, coupled with predicted population increases, mean that resources will become stressed and demand will far outstretch supply. Given the importance of water to this region it is essential that resources are efficiently managed and used to ensure the economic and social well being of the region into the 21st century. It is evident, however, that the current situation is no longer sustainable and new water management strategies must be developed. This paper provides a brief review of former water management strategies and assesses whether Central Asia can draw on its past to provide insights as to how water should be managed in the future.
Article
Since independence, joint use of water resources in the Aral Sea basin has been a critical international problem between the Central Asian republics, especially in the Syr Darya basin where the tradeoffs between use of water for agricultural and energy production are very acute. Previous centralized methods of planning, formation of independent countries, and the emergence of national interests have made the coordinated operation of the Naryn-Syr Darya Cascade of reservoirs complicated. In order to implement recent international agreements on the use of water and energy resources of the Syr Darya basin and provide the upstream-downstream exchanges of electric fuel and energy resources required by the agreements, a model was developed to optimize operation modes for the major reservoirs of the basin. This model was used as the basis for developing a complex model of the operation of the Naryn Cascade of hydropower plants and the interactions of the Kyrgyz Republic energy system and the other Syr Darya basin countries through the Central Asian electricity pool. The model is described and the results of using the model to analyze three scenarios of Nayrn Cascade operation are presented.
Article
An American geographer and noted international authority on water management problems in Russia and Central Asia presents an account of an expedition, in late 2005 (under the sponsorship of the National Geographic Society) to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, focused on the Aral Sea. The steadily drying inland sea, with a surface area of 67,500 km(2) in 1960, had split into two parts and shrunk to 17,380 km(2) in 2006. The paper provides an up-to-date overview of the crisis and presents an optimistic scenario of the sea's future, noting development of economic activities (particularly fisheries) in its surrounding settlements. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 013, Q15, Q25. 6 figures, I table, 55 references. Key words: Aral Sea, irrigation agriculture, fisheries, brine shrimp industry, hazardous wastes, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan.
Book
In many countries, water institutional reforms (like the establishment of water user associations or the introduction of pricing mechanisms) are conducted in order to achieve more sustainable, efficient, and equitable water usage. Often, however, these reforms do not meet their objectives. Based on a comparative analysis of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, this study highlights the long neglected role of politics. It shows how a neopatrimonial regime context impacts the reform process, focusing on the decision making, the agricultural sector, the local governance institutions, internal water-institutional linkages, and the role of international donor agencies.
Article
Due to water withdrawal for land irrigation purposes, the Aral sea was definitively separated into two lakes, the Small and Large Aral, in the late 1980s. Since then, both lakes have followed their own hydrobiological evolution. The Large Aral is continuously drying out at a rate of around 80 cm/year, and is now at a level 10 m below the Small Aral, in the north. We discuss the evolution of the Small Aral during the 1990s in terms of hydrological water mass balance and consequences on hydrobiology. A satellite altimetry technique has been used to monitor the variation of the Small Aral sea level every ten days from 1993 up to 2003. During the same period various in-situ data have been collected: salinity of the sea, runoff of the Syr Darya, evaporation and precipitation over the lake, and biological parameters related to phytoplankton, zooplankton and zoobenthos. During this period a dam in the Berg's strait has been built and the flow of the Syr Darya has been artificially channelled in order to retain the water from the Syr Darya river inside the Small Aral sea. This dam was not sufficiently resistant to water pressure and was destroyed many times. However, it led to a significant increase of the level of the Small Aral, and a decrease in salinity, and thus has had a significant effect on biomass and bio-productivity, and hence on fishery activities. The short period when the dam was installed has demonstrated the positive influence on future possible restoration and rehabilitation of the marine ecosystem in the Small Aral. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Водосберегающие методы и их применение
  • И Абдуллаев
  • Ж Казбеков
  • Д Мольден
Абдуллаев, И., Казбеков Ж. и Мольден Д., 2007: Водосберегающие методы и их применение. International Water & Irrigation Journal, Vol. 2, No. 21: 123-128.