Article

A Techno-Economic Study of an Entirely Renewable Energy-Based Power Supply for North America for 2030 Conditions

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Abstract

In this study power generation and demand are matched through a least-cost mix of renewable energy (RE) resources and storage technologies for North America by 2030. The study is performed using an hourly resolved model based on a linear optimization algorithm. The geographical, technical and economic potentials of different forms of RE resources enable the option of building a super grid between different North American regions. North America (including the U.S., Canada and Mexico in this paper), is divided into 20 sub-regions based on their population, demand, area and electricity grid structure. Four scenarios have been evaluated: region-wide, country-wide, area-wide and an integrated scenario. The levelised cost of electricity is found to be quite attractive in such a system, with the range from 63 €/MWh el in a decentralized case and 42 €/MWh el in a more centralized and integrated scenario. Electrical grid interconnections significantly reduce the storage requirement and overall cost of the energy system. Among all RE resources, wind and solar PV are found to be the least-cost options and hence the main contributors to fossil fuel substitution. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option at a modest cost. However, such a tremendous transition will not be possible in a short time if policy-makers, energy investors and other relevant organizations do not support the proposed system.

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... The model was introduced and published for the first time through a study for Northeast Asia based on 100% RE supply in 2030 [53]. Then, the model is further developed and applied to several other regions and the world [54][55][56][57][58][59]. However, the energy systems vary from one country to another. ...
... The maximum possible potential of RE is summarised in the Supplementary Material (Table S2). The input data are collected from various sources: high spatially-temporally resolved data for solar irradiation and wind speed for the year 2005 [63][64][65], biomass [66], geothermal [54], and hydro availability [67]. Two examples of hourly resolution profiles for single-axis tracking PV and onshore wind power for the MENA region are presented in Fig. 2, and are calculated according to Refs. ...
... The corresponding maps for fixed tilted PV and CSP solar field are provided in the Supplementary Material (Fig. S3). The further explanation about the utilised data and sources are provided in the Supplementary Material and also can be found in Bogdanov and Breyer [53] and Aghahosseini et al. [54]. The growth rate regarding non-energetic industrial gas demand is taken from the IEA [6]. ...
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This research explores the feasibility of 100% renewable energy (RE) systems for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for assumptions of the year 2030. The demand for three sectors are taken into account: power, non-energetic industrial gas and seawater desalination. Three strategical scenarios are discussed, namely Region, Area and Integrated, mainly differing in level of regional grid interconnection and sector coupling. Solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind energy are found to be the most cost-competitive RE sources with the highest potential in the region covering more than 90% of the generation capacity in all the considered scenarios. The variability of RE is solved via energy storage, surplus electricity generation and electricity grids. The estimated overall levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) lies between 40.3 and 52.8 €/MWh, depending on the scenarios. The total LCOE decreased by 17% as a result of sector coupling compared to the interconnected power sector alone. Power-to-gas technology not only functions as a seasonal storage by storing surplus electricity produced mainly from wind power and partially from solar PV, but provides also the required gas for the non-energetic industrial gas sector. Battery storage complements solar PV as a diurnal storage to meet the electricity demand during the evening and night time. Seawater reverse osmosis desalination powered by renewables could potentially be a proper solution to overcome the water challenges in the MENA region at affordable cost of 1.4 €/m³. A comparison with a BAU strategy shows that a 100% renewable energy-based power system is 55–69% cheaper than a BAU strategy without and with greenhouse gas emission costs.
... Main questions that are attempted to be answered through the scenario-based model approach are firstly, what is the most cost-efficient distribution of RE generation under consideration of the whole North American continent and secondly, how is this distribution influenced by the underlying energy transmission infrastructure. Key findings include an assessment of the dimensions in terms of generation and storage capacity as well as the strong role of solar generation in combination with short-and long-term storage capacities, resembling the results of former studies [9,10]. High investments in transmission grid infrastructure to provide high levels of spatial flexibility are not endogenously chosen when generation and transmission capacity expansion is planned simultaneously, but rather limited to minor expansions at the U.S.-Mexican border and a major expansion to supply the high load area of the PJM Interconnection. ...
... Even before this stream of 100 percent renewable research, Ken Zweibel and colleagues [16] provided a blueprint for sustainable electricity development based mainly on solar energy, the so-called Grand Solar Plan. Aghahosseini et al. [10] model a cost-optimal power supply for North America in an hourly temporal resolution based on 100 percent RE under different electricity transmission assumptions for 2030. The paper estimates the impacts of High-Voltage-Direct-Current (HVDC) transmission lines on RE generation and storage capacity. ...
... The total potential amounts to 187,000 GW for solar, 24,000 GW for wind, 267 GW for hydro and 3400 GW for geothermal resources, including deep enhanced geothermal systems. A detailed description of potentials can be found in Brown et al. [31] and assumptions of similar magnitude are also made in other studies [10]. The potential for biomass generation is based on data from Aghahosseini et al. [10]. ...
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The urgency to combat climate change and the widely distributed, increasingly competitive renewable resources in North America are strong arguments to explore scenarios for a renewable energy supply in the region. While the current power system of North America is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, namely natural gas, coal and oil, and some nuclear power plants, some current policies at the state level, and future federal policies are likely to push the share of different renewable sources available in Mexico, the U.S., and Canada. This paper explores three scenarios for a renewable energy supply, using a bottom-up energy system model with a high level of spatial and time granularity. The scenarios span the extremes with respect to connecting infrastructure: while one scenario only looks at state-level supply and demand, without interconnections, the other extreme scenario allows cross-continental network investments. The model results indicate that the North American continent (a) has sufficient renewable potential to satisfy its energy demand with renewables, independent of the underlying grid assumption, (b) solar generation dominates the generation mix as the least-cost option under given renewable resource availability and (c) simultaneous planning of generation and transmission capacity expansion does not result in high grid investments, but the necessary flexibility to integrate intermittent renewable generation is rather provided by the existing grid in combination with short-term and seasonal storages.
... One of the research areas directions within the concept of urban sustainable development is the use of renewable energy sources (RES) [1,2]. The most sought-after renewable energy sources in the world include: solar energy, wind energy, water energy (including wastewater energy), tidal energy, wave energy and water bodies, including water bodies, rivers, seas, oceans, geothermal energy with using natural underground heat carriers, low-potential thermal energy of the earth, air, water using special heat carriers, biomass, including plants specially grown for energy, including trees, production and consumption waste, biogas, gas emitted from production and consumption wastes at landfills for such wastes, gas generated from coal mining. ...
... It contains personal computers, office equipment, heating, air conditioning, ventilation, lighting, and access control systems. EEARM is used to develop field experiments on the use of renewable energy sources, including wind generators, in the climatic conditions of the Western Urals [1]. ...
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The paper is devoted to the development of a methodology to evaluate the possible locations of wind generators using GIS technologies for the climatic conditions of the Western Urals. A model of the wind generator operation in the electrical network using the OpenModelica simulation environment has been built. Recommendations on the use of a wind generator and a feasibility study of its use on the base of an energy-efficient autonomous research module (EEARM) are worked out.
... In order to break the bottleneck of RE application, it is necessary to study the utilization cost compared with that of traditional fossil fuel energy. Consequently, some research has conducted cost analyses for different RE energies, such as solar power, wind power, hydropower, and so on [3][4][5]. Furthermore, some other scholars have studied the economic assessment of a RE system on the basis of the cost analysis [6][7][8]. Therefore, the economic feasibility has already become one of the key factors in the promotion of RE technology. ...
... As parallel results, Wiser et al. [4] studied the potential benefits of wind energy's sustainable development. Aghahosseini et al. [5] propose a techno-economic study of an entirely renewable energy-based power supply including solar power, wind power, hydropower and other main energy sources. The evaluation of economic feasibility on the basis of cost analysis has attracted many foci accordingly. ...
Article
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A renewable energy (RE) project has been brought into focus in recent years. Although there is quite a lot of research to assist investors in assessing the economic feasibility of the project, because of the lack of consideration of consumer utility, the existing approaches may still cause a biased result. In order to promote further development, this study focuses on the economic feasibility analysis of the RE project on the basis of consumer utility in the whole life cycle. Therefore, an integrated approach is proposed, which consists of triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs), an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and data envelopment analysis (DEA). The first step is to determine the comprehensive cost index weights of DEA by TFN–AHP. Secondly, to solve the problem, the first DEA model, which is proposed by A. Charnes, W. W. Cooper and E. Rhodes (C2R), is established to calculate the DEA effectiveness. Then, the third task involves designing a computer-based intelligent interface (CBII) to simplify realistic application and ensure performance efficiency. Finally, a solar water heater case study is demonstrated to validate the effectiveness of the entire method’s system. The study shows that this could make investors’ lives easier by using the CBII scientifically, reasonably and conveniently. Moreover, the research results could be easily extended to more complex real-world applications.
... Consequently, electric utilities are required to apply and implement sufficient planning for cost-effective operation and efficient economic decisions on the electricity market [2,[8][9][10]. Finding the least-cost resource options is mainly used to minimize the total electric utility costs by applying the optimization procedure to acquire energy savings and energy production options [11][12][13][14]. Saving utility cost (SUC) is customarily used as a cost-benefit analysis of the integration of renewable energy activities applied to the electric generation system [15,16]. ...
... The EFS m=1 k value is determined based on changes that occur on ELDC and the ELFC of the selected thermal unit. Therefore, ELDC m k−1 (x) and ELFC m k−1 (x), which have been determined by using (5) and (13) respectively, are used in (14) to calculate the new EFS m=1 k located at the same loading order of the thermal unit. ...
... However, a clear deficit and research gap exists for two major segments of the energy system: First, a detailed description of the industry sector is lacking in all research and full defossilization of the non-energetic fuels demand of the industry sector is not modeled. The industry sector is described in detail in Pursiheimo et al. [153], though the authors admit that TIMES, the Solar Photovoltaics in 100% Renewable Energy Systems, Fig. 2 Industrial feedstock is missing resulting in remaining fossil fuels material demand 2 Model is unable to defossilize non-energetic industrial demand 3 Non-energy fossil hydrocarbon use of 9620 TWh th 4 Remaining nonrenewable energy is nuclear energy 5 The world is calculated in 0.45 degree regions 6 RE share in electricity 95%, for all energy use 92% and including non-energy use 82% 7 Non-energy fossil hydrocarbon use of 21,900 TWh th model used, was not capable of applying full power-to-X functionality for the industry sector; thus fossil hydrocarbon inputs to the industry sector were still required by the model. Similarly, Teske et al. [186] mention that the chemical industry is still fully based on fossil fuels. ...
... [44], Trainer [187], Jenkins et al. [106], Heard et al. [86], and others claim that such systems would be technically impossible, too expensive if possible, or, if affordable, would lack required resources. These claims are debunked by ongoing research, such as Jacobson et al. [98,100] and Aghahosseini et al. [5,6] for the case of Clack et al. [44]. Brown et al. [29] highlighted the technical feasibility of 100% RE systems in great detail and provided the first broad overview of 100% RE research and respective economics in response to Heard et al. [86]. ...
Chapter
Solar photovoltaics has demonstrated the strongest long-term growth rates of all energy technologies since the 1950s. It has been recognized as the new “king” of energy markets, having emerged within the past few years as the least-cost source of electricity. Along with supporting energy system technologies, in particular batteries and electrolyzers, it can be anticipated that solar PV will emerge as the main source of primary energy for humankind within only a few decades. In parallel the research field of 100% renewable energy system analyses has developed strongly since the mid-2000s, with a growing number of research groups and organizations joining the 100% renewable energy community. The role of solar PV in these analyses has increased steadily, as the true potential role of solar PV in delivering 100% renewable energy supply has been identified in cutting-edge research in recent years. The results of the research, projections, and empirical statistics indicate the dawn of a Solar Age, which may be the key driving force to enable a rebalancing of human activities within the biogeochemical limits of planet Earth. Solar photovoltaic technology offers a crucial foundation for further progress toward a truly sustainable civilization of the highest technical, economic, and cultural standards, leaving no one behind.
... Simulations of low carbon electricity systems with a very high share of RE (100% or near 100%) have been widely studied at global and national levels, with examples covering global [17,18], Europe [19][20][21][22], North America [23], North-East [24] and South-East [25] Asia, the United States [26,27], Germany [28], Denmark [29], Finland [30], Ireland [31], Australia [4][5][6]32] and China [33]. Due to a large number of space and time variables (e.g., the hourly power delivered from RE) involved in finding the least-cost configuration for a national power supply system, some simplifications in terms of time, space and/or optimisation method have been made in most of these studies. ...
... [28][29][30][31] and is described at a low spatial resolution with pre-assumed transmission lines in Ref. [4,5,[17][18][19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27]32] (e.g., 9 or 20 grids for globe [17,18], 15-30 grids for Europe [19][20][21][22], 13 or 33 grids for North-East/South-East Asia [24,25], 10-13 grids for the United States [26,27] and 43 cells for Australia [4,5,32]). Under theses simplifications in space-time, to find the least-cost configuration, the optimisation is assumed to be linear in Ref. [17,[20][21][22][23][24], and is under previously defined dispatch orders (e.g., according to dispatchable or non-dispatchable characteristics [19] or merit orders [5]) for the RE resources. However, to provide reliable sittings for future transmission equipment and power stations, sufficient spatial and temporal resolution is critical. ...
Article
Because of the variability of wind and solar resources, high shares of wind and solar PV in power supply systems can lead to supply gaps during occasional low-resource periods. Due to their ability to meet demand in a short term, dispatchable renewable energy (RE) resources – biomass, concentrating solar power (CSP) and hydropower – can assist in meeting such supply gaps. In this study, we investigate the spatial and temporal configurations of least-cost 100% renewable power supply in Australia, at various levels of biomass resource use and CSP penetration. To this end, we carry out a high-resolution Geographic Information System (GIS)-based hourly electricity supply-demand matching simulation. We find that, based on the current existing biomass capacity (1.7 GW) installed in Australia, a 100% national RE supply is possible with around 146–148 GW system installed capacity at a levelized cost of electricity (LCoE) of 9–10 US’ kWh-1 (95% level of confidence). Under a 5–15 times expansion of biomass, the system capacity would be reduced to around 70–110 GW at an LCoE of 6–8 US’ kWh-1. Depending on limitations to the generation from biomass posed by competing land uses, CSP could play an important role in reducing the system capacity to nearly 120 GW.
... In recent years, ever increasing energy demand has increase the stress on power system which eventually would cause a power system to operate near its stability limit [1,2]. In order to mitigate this situation, several scheme can be implemented to improve the stability of a power system such as installation of power generation unit [3], reconfiguration of power networks [4] as well as installation of compensation devices. ...
... where MV is the mutual vector computed by (19), X best is the best organism in the ecosystem, BF1 and BF2 are benefit factors, rand(0,1) is a random number ranged between 0 to 1, and randInt (1,2) is an integer random number between 1 to 2. It should be noted that location of SVC in X i,new and X j,new produced from the updating process should be rounded off to the nearest integer. Then, the fitness values of X i,new and X j,new are computed and compared with the fitness values of X i and X j respectively. ...
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span>Parallel with the urbanization of the world, energy demand in the world also increased. The increase in energy demand will require a power system to be operated near its stability limit. To mitigate the problem, Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System (FACTS) devices can be installed as a compensation scheme to improve voltage security in a power system. For an effective compensation, FACTS devices should be optimally allocated in a power system. Although optimization techniques can be implemented to optimally allocate these devices, problems have been reported which would affect the performance of the optimization techniques in terms of producing high quality solutions. This paper presents the implementation of Chaotic Immune Symbiotic Organisms Search for solving optimal Static VAr Compensator (SVC) allocation problem for voltage security control. The optimization is validated in IEEE 26-Bus Reliability Test System (RTS) realizes the capability of CISOS in solving the optimization problem. Comparative studies with respect to Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Evolutionary Programming (EP) resulting in good agreement on the results and demonstrated superior performance of CISOS. Results of the study can be beneficial to power system community in terms of compensation planning prior to real world implementation.</span
... Consequently, electric utilities are required to apply and implement sufficient planning for cost-effective operation and efficient economic decisions on the electricity market [2,[8][9][10]. Finding the least-cost resource options is mainly used to minimize the total electric utility costs by applying the optimization procedure to acquire energy savings and energy production options [11][12][13][14]. Saving utility cost (SUC) is customarily used as a cost-benefit analysis of the integration of renewable energy activities applied to the electric generation system [15,16]. ...
... The value is determined based on changes that occur on ELDC and the ELFC of the selected thermal unit. Therefore, and , which have been determined by using (5) and (13) respectively, are used in (14) to calculate the new located at the same loading order of the thermal unit. ...
Article
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In the generation of operating system planning, saving utility cost (SUC) is customarily implemented to attain the forecasted optimal economic benefits in a generating system associated with renewable energy integration. In this paper, an improved approach for the probabilistic peak-shaving technique (PPS) based on computational intelligence is proposed to increase the SUC value. Contrary to the dispatch processing of the PPS technique, which mainly relies on the dispatching of each limited energy unit in sequential order, a modified artificial bee colony with a new searching mechanism (MABC-NSM) is proposed. The SUC is originated from the summation of the Saving Energy Cost and Saving Expected Cycling Cost of the generating system. In addition, further investigation for obtaining the optimal value of the SUC is performed between the SUC determined directly and indirectly estimated by referring to the energy reduction of thermal units (ERTU). Comparisons were made using MABC-NSM and a standard artificial bee colony and verified on the modified IEEE RTS-79 with different peak load demands. A compendium of the results has shown that the proposed method is constituted with robustness to determine the global optimal values of the SUC either obtained directly or by referring to the ERTU. Furthermore, SUC increments of 7.26% and 5% are achieved for 2850 and 3000 MW, respectively.
... Debido a que esta tendencia hacia una ciudadanía energética se caracteriza por la explotación de recursos energéticos renovables distribuidos y variables, equilibrar el consumo y la generación de energía pasa a ser responsabilidad de un mayor número de actores, para lo cual se necesita flexibilidad en la demanda en redes más locales y pequeñas. Aquí, emerge la figura de los consumidores de energía que al mismo tiempo tienen la capacidad de ser productores; a los cuales se les denomina prosumidores [82,83]. ...
... Sustainable bioenergy potential was estimated based on Mensah et al. [82]. Geothermal potential estimates were done according to Aghahosseini et al. [83]. Additionally, using the Ghorbani et al. [84] method, the pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) potential was estimated [85]. ...
Thesis
(In English Below) Obtener un sistema energético que contribuya a asegurar la estabilidad climática del planeta es uno de los desafíos más importantes de la primera mitad del siglo XXI. Con el propósito de contribuir en la búsqueda de vías que permitan superar la crisis climática global, pero desde acciones locales, y apelando a que la tecnología fotovoltaica (FV) cuenta con excelentes características para habilitar la transición energética que se necesita, esta tesis doctoral tiene como principal objetivo analizar, desde un enfoque global y local, el rol que la energía solar FV descentralizada podría jugar en la transición energética sostenible de un país y territorio específico. Para esto, se emplea como caso de estudio a Chile y particularmente, una de las regiones que lo conforma: la región de Aysén. Tanto Chile como la región de Aysén tienen aspectos que son un reflejo de la crisis global del Antropoceno, pero también cuentan con una gran oportunidad para implementar soluciones ejemplares basadas en sus enormes potenciales de energía renovable (ER). Para realizar dicho análisis se han considerado todos los sectores consumidores de energía y se utilizó una herramienta desarrollada por la Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), con la que se modelaron escenarios de transición energética hacia un sistema 100 % basado en ER para Chile, desde un enfoque global y local, donde, en el enfoque local se incluyó a la región de Aysén. Los resultados revelan que, tanto en Chile como en la región de Aysén, lograr un sistema energético 100% renovable para el año 2050 es técnicamente factible y económicamente viable. En ese año, dependiendo del enfoque y escala territorial, la contribución a la generación eléctrica por parte de la tecnología FV en su conjunto varía entre 39–86 % y, la contribución de la FV descentralizada varía entre 9–12 %; no obstante, la FV descentralizada aporta entre un 27–52 % de la electricidad final que es mayormente consumida en las ciudades por los sectores eléctrico, térmico y transporte. A su vez, la energía solar FV descentralizada crearía en Chile entre el 9–15 % de los empleos anuales directos durante el periodo de transición. Es decir, entre los años 2020 y 2050, el sector de la FV descentralizada crearía 174.274 empleos directos. Además, los resultados también revelan que Chile puede alcanzar la neutralidad en emisiones de carbono en el año 2030 y, se puede convertir en un país emisor negativo de gases de efecto invernadero a partir del año 2035. Todo esto sería posible utilizando menos del 10 % del potencial tecno-económico de ER disponible en este país. Tras los resultados del trabajo de investigación realizado en esta tesis doctoral, se concluye que la energía solar FV es un elemento vital en la transición energética sostenible, así como también, alcanzar un sistema energético totalmente desfosilizado es más importante que lograr la neutralidad en las emisiones de carbono. Esto último se debe a que una transición a nivel país hacia un sistema energético 100 % renovable implicaría beneficios socio-ambientales y socioeconómicos locales, con impactos globales positivos que se necesitan con urgencia. Si Chile implementara una vía de transición hacia un sistema energético 100 % renovable, no solo podría convertirse en un caso ejemplar en el avance hacia una economía post-combustibles fósiles, si no que también podría contribuir a la transición energética global: a través de la extracción limpia de materias primas clave (como lo son el cobre y el litio), y a través de la producción de combustibles y químicos basados en ER. En resumen, la tecnología FV puede contribuir en la mitigación del cambio climático y la reducción de los niveles de contaminación del aire en las ciudades, al tiempo que impulsa el crecimiento económico local; todo esto, de una manera más descentralizada y participativa. ///////////////////////////////////////// Obtaining an energy system that will help to ensure the climactic stability of the planet is one of the most important challenges of the first half of the 21st century. In order to contribute to the search for ways to overcome the global climate crisis, from local activities, and appealing to the fact that photovoltaic (PV) technology has excellent characteristics which could enable the energy transition that is needed, this doctoral thesis has as its main objective the analysis, from a global and local approach, the role that decentralized solar PV could play in the sustainable energy transition of a specific country and territory. For this purpose, Chile and one of its regions (the Aysén region) are used as a case study. Both Chile and the Aysén region have aspects that reflect the global crisis of the Anthropocene, but they also present a great opportunity to implement exemplary solutions, based on their enormous renewable energy (RE) potentials. To carry out this analysis, all energy-consuming sectors were considered. A tool developed by the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) was used, with which energy transition scenarios were modelled towards a 100% RE-based system for Chile, from a global and local approach. The Aysén region was included in the local approach. The results reveal that, both in Chile and in the Aysén region, achieving a 100% RE system by 2050 is technically feasible and economically viable. In that year, depending on the approach and territorial scale, the contribution to electricity generation by PV technology as a whole would vary between 39–86%. The contribution of decentralized PV would be between 9–12%. However, decentralized PV would contribute 27–52% of the final electricity that is mostly consumed in cities by the power, heat and transport sectors. In turn, decentralized solar PV would create between 9–15% of annual direct jobs in Chile during the transition period. In other words, between 2020 and 2050, the decentralized PV sector would create 174,274 direct jobs. In addition, the results also reveal that Chile could achieve carbon neutrality in 2030 and could become a negative greenhouse gas emitter by 2035. All of this would be possible by using less than 10% of the techno-economic potential of RE available in this country. From the results of the research work carried out in this doctoral thesis, it is concluded that solar PV is a vital element in the sustainable energy transition. We also find that achieving a fully defossilized energy system is more important than achieving carbon neutrality. The latter is due to the fact that a transition at the country level towards a 100% RE system would imply local socio-environmental and socio-economic benefits, with positive urgently needed global impacts. If Chile implements a transition path towards a 100% RE system, it could not only become an exemplary case in moving towards a post-fossil fuel economy, but could also contribute to the global energy transition through the clean extraction of key raw materials (such as copper and lithium), and through the production of RE-based fuels and chemicals. In summary, PV technology can contribute to mitigating climate change and reducing air pollution levels in cities, while boosting local economic growth, doing all of this in a more decentralized and participatory way.
... Geothermal energy potential was calculated according to the method described in Aghahosseini et al. [66]. The A-CAES storage potential is based on a global A-CAES resource assessment [67]. ...
Article
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Climate change threats and the necessity to achieve global Sustainable Development Goals demand unprecedented economic and social shifts around the world, including a fundamental transformation of the global energy system. An energy transition is underway in most regions, predominantly in the power sector. This research highlights the technical feasibility and economic viability of 100% renewable energy systems including the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors. It presents a technology-rich, multi-sectoral, multi-regional and cost-optimal global energy transition pathway for 145 regional energy systems sectionalised into nine major regions of the world. This 1.5°C target compatible scenario with rapid direct and indirect electrification via Power-to-X processes and massive defossilisation indicates substantial benefits: 50% energy savings, universal access to fresh water and low-cost energy supply. It also provides an energy transition pathway that could lead from the current fossil-based system to an affordable, efficient, sustainable and secure energy future for the world.
... The resource profiles in high spatial and temporal resolutions for solar PV, concentrating solar power (CSP), wind energy and hydropower were prepared. The sustainable potential of bioenergy [73] and geothermal energy [74] were collected and used as an upper limit. The current installed power plant capacities were structured by technologies and commissioning year, in an annual resolution from 1960 to 2015 (end of 2014), according to Farfan and Breyer [75]. ...
Article
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Energy security analysis is a strong tool for policy makers. It allows them to formulate policies that would enhance energy systems by targeting necessary actions. In this study, the impacts of transitioning from a fossil fuels to a renewables dominated energy system on energy security is analysed for Jordan. A Best Policy Scenario was developed for the Jordanian energy system to trace the transition to a 100% renewable energy system. Energy security was analysed for the future system by a qualitative approach utilising colour codes. The results reveal that the primary energy demand increases from 64 TWh in 2015 to 130 TWh in 2050, dominated by electricity and followed by heat and bioenergy. This indicates that a high level of direct and indirect electrification is the key to transition towards a fully sustainable energy system. Renewable electricity generation is projected to increase from 0.1 TWh in 2015 to 110.7 TWh in 2050, with a solar photovoltaic share of 92%. The levelised cost of energy develops from 78 €/MWh in 2015 to 61 €/MWh in 2050. In 2050, this system will have zero greenhouse gas emissions, it will provide plenty of job opportunities and revenue generation. This proposed transition will enhance the energy security level of the Jordanian energy system in five of the six dimensions studied. The five dimensions that will be improved are availability, cost, environment, health, and employment, whereas the dimension on diversity will stay neutral. It can be concluded that Jordan can achieve a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 and such a transition will enhance the energy security level.
... Geothermal energy potential was calculated according to the method described in Aghahosseini et al. [90]. Full load hours for wind turbines, solar PV and hydropower plants, potentials of bioenergy and geothermal energy, and upper limits for ground-mounted PV, wind energy and hydropower are provided in the Appendix A (Table A5). ...
Article
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Transition towards long-term sustainable energy systems is one of the biggest challenges faced by the global society. By 2050, not only greenhouse gas emissions have to be eliminated in all energy sectors: power, heat, transport and industry but also these sectors should be closely coupled allowing maximum synergy effects and efficiency. A tool allowing modelling of complex energy system transition for power, heat, transport and industry sectors, responsible for over 75% of the CO2eq emissions, in full hourly resolution, is presented in this research and tested for the case of Kazakhstan. The results show that transition towards a 100% sustainable and renewable energy based system by 2050 is possible even for the case of severe climate conditions and an energy intensive industry, observed in Kazakhstan. The power sector becomes backbone of the entire energy system, due to more intense electrification induced sector coupling. The results show that electrification and integration of sectors enables additional flexibility, leading to more efficient systems and lower energy supply cost, even though integration effect varies from sector to sector. The levelised cost of electricity can be reduced from 62 €/MWh in 2015 to 46 €/MWh in 2050 in a fully integrated system, while the cost of heat stays on a comparable level within the range of 30–35 €/MWh, leading to an energy system cost on a level of 40–45 €/MWh. Transition towards 100% renewable energy supply shrinks CO2eq emissions from these sectors to zero in 2050 with 90% of the reduction achieved by 2040.
... The modeled batteries are assumed to be lithium-ion battery packs with a discharge time of 8 h, as in Ref. [63], and the cost can be converted from $/kW to $/kWh with a factor 8. All investment costs are annualized using a social discount rate of 5%. Our assumption lies within the 2-7% range used in previous studies [4][5][6]11,12,[14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27]29] and is in line with the recommendation of a discount rate of maximum 5% for energy systems optimization models, proposed by Garcia-Gusano et al. [74]. ...
Article
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Most studies that examine CO2-neutral, or near CO2-neutral, power systems by using energy system models investigate Europe or the United States, while similar studies for other regions are rare. In this paper, we focus on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where weather conditions, especially for solar, differ substantially from those in Europe. We use a green-field linear capacity expansion model with over-night investment to assess the effect on the system cost of (i) limiting/expanding the amount of land available for wind and solar farms, (ii) allowing for nuclear power and (iii) disallowing for international transmission. The assessment is done under three different cost regimes for solar PV and battery storage. First, we find that the amount of available land for wind and solar farms can have a significant impact on the system cost, with a cost increase of 0–50% as a result of reduced available land. In MENA, the impact on system cost from land availability is contingent on the PV and battery cost regime, while in Europe it is not. Second, allowing for nuclear power has a minor effect in MENA, while it may decrease the system cost in Europe by up to 20%. In Europe, the effect on system cost from allowing for nuclear power is highly dependent on the PV and battery cost regime. Third, disallowing for international transmission increases the system cost by up to 25% in both Europe and MENA, and the cost increase depends on the cost regime for PV and batteries. The impacts on system cost from these three controversial and policy-relevant factors in a decarbonized power system thus play out differently, depending on (i) the region and (ii) uncertain future investment costs for solar PV and storage. We conclude that a renewable power system in MENA is likely to be less costly than one in Europe, irrespective of future uncertainties regarding investment cost for PV and batteries, and policies surrounding nuclear power, transmission, and land available for wind- and solar farms. In MENA, the system cost varies between 42 and 96 $/MWh. In Europe, the system cost varies between 51 and 102 $/MWh.
... North America is comprised of the major economic centres of the world, the USA, Canada and a rapidly emerging economy in Mexico, with a 19% share of global GDP (IMF, 2017), and is one of the largest energy consumption centres across the world, with total electricity consumption of around 5284 TWh in 2015. This is estimated to rise to 7069 TWh by 2050, mainly driven by the rapid growth of Mexico as well as stable electricity demands from the USA and Canada (IEA, 2016;Aghahosseini et al., 2017). Renewable energy has been on the rise in the recent years across all the 3 countries. ...
Thesis
Full-text available
There are undeniable signs from all over the world demonstrating that climate change is already upon us. Numerous scientific studies have warned of dire consequences should humankind fail to keep average global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5°C. Drastic measures to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from all economic activities across the world are essential. Major emphasis has been on the energy sector, which contributes the bulk of GHG emissions. Inevitably, energy scenarios describing future transition pathways towards low, and zero emissions energy systems are commonly proposed as mitigation strategies. However, there is growing awareness in the research community that energy transitions should be understood and analysed not only from technical and economical perspectives but also from a social perspective. This research explores the broader ramifications of a global energy transition from various dimensions: costs and externalities of energy production, democratisation of future energy systems and the role of prosumers, employment creation during energy transitions at the global, regional and national levels and the effects of air pollution during energy transitions across the world. This research builds on fundamental techno-economic principles of energy systems and relies firmly on a cost driven rationale for determining cost optimal energy system transition pathways. Techno-economic analyses of energy transitions around the world are executed with the LUT Energy System Transition Model, while the corresponding socioeconomic aspects are expressed in terms of levelised cost of electricity, cost effective development of prosumers, job creation, and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions along with air pollution. Findings during the course of this original research involved novel assessments of the levelised cost of electricity encompassing externalities across G20 countries, cost optimal prosumer modelling across the world, estimates of job creation potential of various renewables, storage and power-to-X technologies including the production of green hydrogen and e-fuels during global, regional and national energy transitions. The novel research methods and insights are published in several articles and presented in this thesis, which highlight robust socioeconomic benefits of transitioning the current fossil fuels dominated global energy system towards renewables complemented by storage and flexible power-to-X solutions, resulting in near zero emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These research findings and insights have significant relevance to stakeholders across the energy landscape and present a compelling case for the rapid transformation of energy systems across the world. However, the research does have limitations and is based on energy transition pathways that are inherent with uncertainties and some socioeconomic challenges. Nonetheless, actions to enhance and accelerate the ongoing energy transition across the world must be prioritised, if not for technical feasibility or economic viability, but for the social wellbeing of human society and future generations.
... As the world explores how to eliminate carbon emissions while providing low-cost, reliable energy, many different approaches have been proposed. Solutions that have been proposed using geographically available resources [1,2] include pumped hydro storage [3,4], expanded transmission, [5,6] and other approaches [7]. While the solutions may vary, all agree that some form of storage will be needed to reach 100% renewable electricity. ...
Preprint
div> Optimization models can be quite powerful in identifying a pathway to lowest cost zero-carbon energy systems. However, it is less obvious how to invert the models to calculate the target cost and duration of storage needed for that storage to be a significant solution. Storage is a dispatchable and flexible resource with the ability to perform many functions of grid support, further complicating the analysis. This paper complements existing papers by presenting an academic study of a simplified energy system, demonstrating a method for quantifying cost and duration targets for storage. The simplified analysis also helps to gain intuition about the synergistic relationship between storage and solar energy in a location like the state of California. </div
... As the world explores how to eliminate carbon emissions while providing low-cost, reliable energy, many different approaches have been proposed. Solutions that have been proposed using geographically available resources [1,2] include pumped hydro storage [3,4], expanded transmission, [5,6] and other approaches [7]. While the solutions may vary, all agree that some form of storage will be needed to reach 100% renewable electricity. ...
Preprint
div> Optimization models can be quite powerful in identifying a pathway to lowest cost zero-carbon energy systems. However, it is less obvious how to invert the models to calculate the target cost and duration of storage needed for that storage to be a significant solution. Storage is a dispatchable and flexible resource with the ability to perform many functions of grid support, further complicating the analysis. This paper complements existing papers by presenting an academic study of a simplified energy system, demonstrating a method for quantifying cost and duration targets for storage. The simplified analysis also helps to gain intuition about the synergistic relationship between storage and solar energy in a location like the state of California. </div
... Potentials for biomass and waste resources were classified into solid biomass wastes, residues, and biogas according to Bunzel et al. (2009). Additionally, geothermal potential estimates were determined according to Aghahosseini et al. (2017) and pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) potential estimates were done according to Ghorbani et al. (2019). Resource distributions for solar PV single-axis tracking, fixed-tilted, Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI), and wind onshore (EÀ101 at 150 m) are shown in Fig. 6. (Bogdanov et al., 2019b), transport (Ram et al., 2019), and desalination (Caldera et al., 2018). ...
Article
Full-text available
Under the Paris Climate Agreement, sustainable energy supply will largely be achieved through renewable energies. Each country will have its own unique optimal pathway to transition to a fully sustainable system. This study demonstrates two such pathways for Bolivia that are both technically feasible and cost-competitive to a scenario without proper renewable energy targets, and significantly more cost-efficient than the current system. This transition for Bolivia would be driven by solar PV based electricity and high electrification across all energy sectors. Simulations performed using the LUT Energy System Transition model comprising 108 technology components show that electricity demand in Bolivia would rise from the present 12 TWh to 230 TWh in 2050, and electricity would comprise 82% of primary energy demand. The remaining 18% would then be covered by renewable heat and sustainable biomass resources. Solar PV sees massive increases in capacity from 0.13 GW in 2020 to a maximum of 113 GW in 2050, corresponding to 93% of electricity generation in 2050. In a high transmission scenario, levelised cost of energy reduces 27% during the transition. All scenarios studied see significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, with two scenarios demonstrating a Bolivian energy system with no greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. Further, such scenarios outline a sustainable and import-free supply of energy for Bolivia that will provide additional social benefits for the people of Bolivia.
... While each utility in Hawai'i is actively implementing resource plans to achieve 100% renewables, ongoing iterations of those plans continue to evaluate options for specific resource additions and retirements. Similarly, the academic literature continues to model and evaluate technical pathways to 100% renewable systems [102][103][104][105][106][107][108][109][110][111]-including an exchange between Brown et al. and Heard et al. debating whether the feasibility and viability of 100% renewable systems had yet been demonstrated as of 2017 and 2018 [112,113]. Modeling by Imelda et al. concluded that a 100% renewable system satisfying Hawai'i's 100% RPS law is "surprisingly affordable" and improves welfare in comparison to a fossil fuel-based system even without considering the cost of pollution [104]. ...
Article
Full-text available
International, national, and subnational laws and policies call for rapidly decarbonizing energy systems around the globe. This effort relies heavily on renewable electricity and calls for a transition that is: (i) flexible enough to accommodate existing and new electricity end uses and users; (ii) resilient in response to climate change and other threats to electricity infrastructure; (iii) cost-effective in comparison to alternatives; and (iv) just in the face of energy systems that are often the result of—or the cause of—procedural, distributive, and historical injustices. Acknowledging the intertwined roles of technology and policy, this work provides a cross-disciplinary review of how microgrids may contribute to renewable electricity systems that are flexible, resilient, cost-effective, and just (including illustrative examples from Korea, California, New York, the European Union, and elsewhere). Following this review of generalized microgrid characteristics, we more closely examine the role and potential of microgrids in two United States jurisdictions that have adopted 100% renewable electricity standards (Hawai‘i and Puerto Rico), and which are actively developing regulatory regimes putatively designed to enable renewable microgrids. Collectively, this review shows that although microgrids have the potential to support the transition to 100% renewable electricity in a variety of ways, the emerging policy structures require substantial further development to operationalize that potential. We conclude that unresolved fundamental policy tensions arise from justice considerations, such as how to distribute the benefits and burdens of microgrid infrastructure, rather than from technical questions about microgrid topologies and operating characteristics. Nonetheless, technical and quantitative future research will be necessary to assist regulators as they develop microgrid policies. In particular, there is a need to develop socio–techno–economic analyses of cost-effectiveness, which consider a broad range of potential benefits and costs.
... A 50 €/ton gate fee for 2015 increasing to 100 €/ton for 2050 is assumed for solid fuels used in waste incineration plants [94]. Finally, the geothermal potential which is used as an input is calculated according to Aghahosseini et al. [95]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Transition towards sustainable energy systems is of utmost importance to avert global consequences of climate change. Within the framework of the Paris Agreement and Marrakech Communique, this study analyses an energy transition pathway utilising renewable resources for the Philippines. The transition study is performed from 2015 to 2050 on a high temporal and spatial resolution data, using a linear optimisation tool. From the results of this study, technically, a 100% fossil free energy system in 2050 is possible, with a cost structure comparable to an energy system in 2015, while having zero greenhouse gas emissions. Solar PV as a generation and batteries a as storage technology form the backbone of the energy system during the transition. Direct and indirect electrification across all sectors would result in an efficiency gain of more than 50% in 2050, while keeping the total annual investment within 20-55 b€. Heat pumps, electrical heating, and solar thermal technologies would supply heat, whereas, direct electricity and synthetic fuels would fuel the energy needs of the transport sector. The results indicate that, indigenous renewable resources in the Philippines could power the demand from all energy sectors, thereby, bringing various socioeconomic benefits.
... The modeled batteries are assumed to be lithium-ion battery packs with a discharge time of 8 h, as in Ref. [63], and the cost can be converted from $/kW to $/kWh with a factor 8. All investment costs are annualized using a social discount rate of 5%. Our assumption lies within the 2-7% range used in previous studies [4][5][6]11,12,[14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27]29] and is in line with the recommendation of a discount rate of maximum 5% for energy systems optimization models, proposed by Garcia-Gusano et al. [74]. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
Most studies of near-zero-carbon power systems consider Europe and the United States. In this paper, we focus on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where weather conditions, especially for solar, differ substantially from those in Europe. We use a green-field linear capacity expansion model with over-night investment to assess the effect on system cost of (i) limiting/expanding the amount of land available for wind and solar farms, (ii) allowing for nuclear power and (iii) disallowing for international transmission. This is done under three different cost regimes for solar PV and battery storage. We find that: - The amount of available land for wind and solar farms can have a great impact on the system cost. We found a cost increase of 0-50% as a result of reduced available land. In MENA, the impact on system cost is greatly influenced by the PV and battery cost regime, which is not the case in Europe. - Allowing for nuclear has nearly no effect in MENA, while it can decrease system costs in Europe by up to 23%. In Europe, the effect on system cost of whether nuclear power is allowed is highly dependent on the PV and battery cost regime, which is not the case in MENA. - Disallowing for international transmission increases costs by up to around 25% in both Europe and MENA. The cost increase depends on cost regime for PV and batteries. The impact on system cost off these three controversial parts of a decarbonized power system thus plays out differently, depending on (i) the region and (ii) uncertain future costs for solar PV and storage. We conclude that a renewable power system in MENA, is less costly than in Europe irrespective of the cost regime. In MENA, the system costs vary between 37 and 83 euro/MWh. In Europe, the system costs vary between 43 and 89 euro/MWh.
... An emerging application of FPV systems is pairing the system with a hydropower reservoir, which could enable several additional co-benefits. These include power system optimization benefits, such as increased utilization of existing transmission infrastructure, reduced curtailment, improved power "quality" (such as smoothing of PV generation on both a minute-to-minute and hourly timescale, time-shifting, and seasonal compensation); and environmental benefits, such as water savings from reduced hydropower operation [34,44,46,48,49,77]. Although there are no publicly available empirical data from FPV-hydropower hybrid systems supporting these claims, several modeling studies have made a strong case for these co-benefits if the hybrid systems are planned and executed well. ...
Article
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Floating solar photovoltaic (FPV) systems have become an increasingly attractive application of photovoltaics (PV) because of land-use constraints, the cost of land and site preparation, and the perceived energy and environmental co-benefits. Despite the increasing interest in FPV systems, a robust validation of their suggested co-benefits and impacts on the nexus of energy, water, and food (EWF) systems is lacking. This information gap makes it challenging for decision makers to justify its adoption—potentially suppressing FPV deployment. To address this gap and to help de-risk this PV deployment opportunity, we (1) review the suggested co-benefits of FPV systems with a focus on the impacts that could alleviate pressures on EWF systems and (2) identify areas where further research is needed to reduce uncertainty around FPV system performance. Our review reveals that EWF nexus-relevant co-benefits, such as improved panel efficiency and reduced land usage, are corroborated in the literature, whereas others, such as water quality impacts, lack empirical evidence. Our findings indicate that further research is needed to quantify the water-related and broader economic, environmental, social, sustainability, justice, and resilience co-benefits and impacts of FPV systems.
... Real weather data was used to estimate the solar, wind and hydro resources [69,79,80]. Potentials for biomass and waste resources were classified into solid biomass wastes, residues, and biogas according to Lopez et al. [21], and are shown in Table 2. Additionally, geothermal potential estimates were determined according to Aghahosseini et al. [81] and pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) potential estimates were done according to Ghorbani et al. [82]. Resource profiles for solar PV fixed-tilted, single-axis tracking, and wind onshore (E− 101 at 150 m) are shown in Fig. 5. Upper capacity limits for renewable resources are shown in Table 3. ...
Article
Full-text available
As the discourse surrounding 100% renewable energy systems has evolved, several energy system modelling tools have been developed to demonstrate the technical feasibility and economic viability of fully sustainable, sector coupled energy systems. While the characteristics of these tools vary among each other, their purpose remains consistent in integrating renewable energy technologies into future energy systems. This paper examines two such energy system models, the LUT Energy System Transition model, an optimisation model, and the EnergyPLAN simulation tool, a simulation model, and develops cost-optimal scenarios under identical assumptions. This paper further analyses different novel modelling approaches used by modellers. Scenarios are developed using the LUT model for Sun Belt countries, for the case of Bolivia, to examine the effects of multi and single-node structuring, and the effects of overnight and energy transition scenarios are analysed. Results for all scenarios indicate a solar PV dominated energy system; however, limitations arise in the sector coupling capabilities in EnergyPLAN, leading it to have noticeably higher annualised costs compared to the single-node scenario from the LUT model despite similar primary levelised costs of electricity. Multi-nodal results reveal that for countries with rich solar resources, high transmission from regions of best solar resources adds little value compared to fully decentralised systems. Finally, compared to the overnight scenarios, transition scenarios demonstrate the impact of considering legacy energy systems in sustainable energy system analyses.
... For example, the US has an existing grid interconnection with Mexico to avoid blackouts during peak load hours, which has benefited the country's economy and created a significant number of jobs [64]. The same benefit applies to Mexico, which not only decreases costs but also ensures the security of energy supply [65,66]. ...
Article
Full-text available
This is a discussion and response to “Global 100% energy transition by 2050: A fiction in developing economies?” authored by Anthony Afful-Dadzie and published in Joule 5 (2021) 1634–1643. The preview has raised concerns around the feasibility of energy transitions towards 100% renewable energy and sustainable technologies in developing economies, after examining the article Bogdanov et al. (2021) in Afful-Dadzie (2021). Although, the author has rightly pointed out the disparity in the recent growth of renewable energy across the developed and developing countries of the world, along with highlighting a pertinent issue of ‘availability of finance’ for energy transitions across developing countries, the preview fails to contextualise the issue of financing energy transitions, in particular across developing countries, and has trivialised complex and cumbersome cost optimal energy transition modelling with vague and unscientific illustrations. In response, the authors of Bogdanov et al. (2021) have contextualised, clarified and confuted the issues raised in Afful-Dadzie (2021).
... For solid waste a 50 €/ton gate fee was assumed for 2015, rising to 100 €/ton in 2050. Geothermal energy potential was calculated according to the method described in [62]. FLh for wind turbines, solar PV and hydro plants, potentials of bio and geothermal energy are provided in the Appendix A (Table A5). ...
Article
Transition towards 100% renewable energy supply is a challenging aim for many regions in the world. Even in regions with excellent availability of wind and solar resources, such factors as limited availability of flexible renewable energy resources, low flexibility of demand, and high seasonality of energy supply and demand can impede the transition. All these factors can be found for the case of Kazakhstan, a mostly steppe country with harsh continental climate conditions and an energy intensive economy dominated by fossil fuels. Results of the simulation using the LUT Energy System Transition modelling tool show that even under these conditions, the power and heat supply system of Kazakhstan can transition towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. A renewable-based electricity only system will be lower in cost than the existing fossil-based system, with levelised cost of electricity of 54 €/MWh in 2050. The heat system transition requires installation of substantial storage capacities to compensate for seasonal heat demand variations. Electrical heating will become the main source of heat for both district and individual heating sectors with heat cost of about 45 €/MWh and electricity cost of around 56 €/MWh for integrated sectors in 2050. According to these results, transition towards a 100% renewable power and heat supply system is technically feasible and economically viable even in countries with harsh climatic conditions.
... Bogdanov et al. [46] show that the ratio of the total annualized energy system cost to the final energy demand of the entire North America can gradually decline while transitioning towards 100% RE by 2050, along a continued energy transition process. Earlier research concluded that a North American power system integration with Canada and Mexico would create further benefits and cost reductions for 100% RE supply [47], while an energy system integration across all Americas would be of limited additional benefit [48]. ...
Article
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This paper exposes the many flaws in the article “Through the Eye of a Needle: An Ecoheterodox Perspective on the Renewable Energy Transition, authored by Siebert and Rees and recently published in Energies as a Review. Our intention in submitting this critique is to expose and rectify the original article’s non-scientific approach to the review process that includes selective (and hence biased) screening of the literature focusing on the challenges related to renewable energies, without discussing any of the well-documented solutions. In so doing, we also provide a rigorous refutation of several statements made by a Seibert–Rees paper, which often appear to be unsubstantiated personal opinions and not based on a balanced review of the available literature.
... Electricity exchange between cities, countries, or continents via large electricity transmission networks is a commonly discussed solution to tackle the variability of RE sources. According to several studies applied to different parts of the world (Aghahosseini et al., 2017Bogdanov et al., 2019Bogdanov et al., , 2021Child et al., 2019;Jacobson, 2021), HVDC power lines have been the most utilized structure in continental interconnection and it has been assumed that most of the new interconnection transmission lines between countries in the future will be built with this technology. These studies have also identified that the main technical challenges can be categorised as follows: control systems from both security and reliability perspectives, network complexity, and power grid congestion. ...
Technical Report
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This document seeks to contribute to society and its decision-makers with the best available scientific evidence on Chile’s Renewable Energy (RE) Export Potential and the opportunities and challenges that such potential opens for Chile’s commitment to carbon neutrality. It also aims to provide a useful input for the dialogues that the country will hold in the framework of COP26. A collaborative and interdisciplinary process was developed for this goal, involving 71 researchers and specialists. The work includes 299 references of scientific literature that support the different dimensions involved in the challenge of exporting renewable energy from Chile. It is confirmed that Chile has a considerable renewable energy potential that can be the basis for various exports. The different energy export options identified are renewable electricity using electrical transmission grids; hydrogen and derivatives (synthetic fuels, fertilizers, other chemical products) through pipelines or maritime transport; local production or manufacturing of products and services fed with RE; and knowledge and R&D capabilities. We conclude that the whole process of renewable energy exports should be framed within the Chilean policy for climate change and the current local context. Moreover, such a process must be consistent with the social and environmental principles set out in Chile’s NDCs, in the future Framework Law for Climate Change, in its Long-Term Climate Strategy, and in the mitigation and adaptation plans of the energy sector. For this purpose, recommendations were developed in the following areas: Art. 6 of the Paris Agreement, climate observatory, legitimacy and social licence, just climate action principle, energy literacy, new challenges for science and technology, partnerships, and improvements of the current legislation.
... It is foreseen that biomass and bioenergy will play a vital role in the future of the global energy scenario in producing heat and power, chemicals, and fuels. Bioenergy has recently received special attention by decreasing fossil fuel resources and increasing environmental concerns [16]. Bioenergy contributes to poverty reduction in developing countries. ...
Article
Full-text available
In the study, the current and future status of renewable energy resources were compiled in the light of large databases of national and international renewable energy institutions, and the latest situation in the world in the transition to 100% renewable energy was examined. The extent of the goal for the transition to 100% renewable energy has been determined, and predictions have been made based on all this information. In today's world where energy and environmental problems are on the agenda, countries' transition to renewable energy is the primary solution. This goal is called the transition to 100% renewable energy, which brings advantages such as providing needed energy and producing clean energy. Today, renewable energy sources account for more than one-third of the global energy capacity, and the world is rapidly moving towards 100% renewable energy. Compared with 2017, the total amount of renewable energy in 2018 increased by 181 GW, and the number of countries with an increase in the proportion of renewable energy increased. Taking into account the external dependence of the use of fossil fuels and environmental issues, this development is at a promising level in the future. In order to shift from highly polluting oil resources to natural gas and renewable resources, this article aims to investigate the current global energy transition trends, and then propose some important strategies to get closer to upstream goals and obligations in this way.
... The potential estimation was based on Bunzel et al. [77]. The geothermal energy potential was calculated by Gulagi et al. [56] based on methods described in [78]. The different technologies integrated into the model can be categorised as: ...
Article
Full-text available
Pakistan is currently undertaking a substantial expansion of electricity generation capacity to provide electricity for all its end-users and to satisfy a fast-growing economy. Adoption of low-cost, abundant and clean renewable energy will not only fulfil its growing electricity , heat, transportation and desalinated water demand but also help achieve the goals set under the Paris Agreement. A technology-rich energy system model applied in hourly resolution has been used for investigating the transition in 5-year periods until 2050. This study demonstrates that a 100% renewable energy system across the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors is not only technically feasible but also economically viable. Solar pho-tovoltaics emerges as a key technology to generate electricity and contribute a share of 92% to the total primary energy demand across all sectors by 2050. The levelised cost of energy for a 100% renewable energy system is calculated as 56.1 €/MWh in 2050, lower than 70 €/MWh for the current fossil fuel-based system. A key feature of Pakistan's future energy system is the huge increase in demand across all energy sectors, particularly for desalinated water, which is almost 19% of the final energy demand. This share of energy for desalination is among the highest in the world. Direct and indirect electrification across all demand sectors increases the efficiency of the future energy system. Moreover, GHG emissions from all the sectors will drop to zero by 2050 in a fully sustainable energy scenario.
... Many studies (e.g. [7][8][9][10], see also the studies evaluated in [11]), especially on country scale, actually perform an optimization of the complete generation portfolio with regard to cost, taking into account specific assumptions concerning boundary conditions. Since a macroeconomic optimum seems a reasonable goal for an energy system this work focuses on improvements for studies, in which optimizations are performed in order to come closer to this goal. ...
Conference Paper
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Decisions in energy policy are influenced by the results from energy systems optimizations. Uncertainties regarding the input parameters of optimization problems, e.g. cost developments of technologies and resources in the future, may influence the optimization results in such a way, that an easy interpretation of results is not possible. The methodology presented herein aims to overcome the problem of uncertainties and to allow taking into account probability distributions (pd) for all input parameters while limiting the number of necessary optimizations to a minimum. This is achieved using design of experiment (DoE) to select the appropriate input parameter combinations to train an artificial neural network (ANN). The resulting ANN is then used to predict the optimization result for all possible input parameter combinations, which are then weighted with a pd according to user preferences. In this contribution, an explanation of the new methodology OPANN (optimization considering probabilities with artificial neural networks) and its application are presented. The information gained from a number of random or selected (e.g. scenario based) simulations is compared with the results following the DoE approach and the application of ANN and pds. The number of necessary simulations with the new methodology is then evaluated with regard to the applicability of the Monte Carlo method and stochastic optimization and the cost-benefit ratio for the considered methods at different numbers of runs of the original optimization problem is compared.
... Sustainable bioenergy potential was estimated based on Mensah et al. [82]. Geothermal potential estimates were done according to Aghahosseini et al. [83]. Additionally, using the Ghorbani et al. [84] method, the pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) potential was estimated [85]. ...
Article
Full-text available
The aim of this research is to analyse the impact of renewable energy (RE) technologies and sector coupling via analysing the transition pathways towards a sustainable energy system in Chile. Four energy transition scenarios for the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors were assessed using the LUT Energy System Transition model. The current policy scenario was modelled and compared with three best policy scenarios. The results showed that the transition to a 100 % renewable-based energy system by 2050 is technically feasible. Further, such an energy system would be more cost-efficient than the current policy scenario to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. The results also indicate that Chile could reach carbon neutrality by 2030 and become a negative greenhouse gas emitter country by 2035. In a 100 % renewable-based energy system, solar photovoltaics (PV) would contribute 86 % of electricity generation, which would represent 83 % of the total final energy demand for the year 2050. This would imply the use of about 10 % of the available techno-economic RE potential of the country. Three vital elements (high level of renewable electrification across all sectors, flexibility and RE-based fuel production) and three key enablers (solar PV, interconnection and full sectoral integration) were identified in order to transition to a fully sustainable energy system. Chile could contribute to the global sustainable energy transition and advance to the global post-fossil fuels economy through the clean extraction of key raw materials and RE-based fuels and chemicals production.
... La biomasa aún no explotada al máximo dentro del contexto de la red eléctrica doméstica moderna (Valdez-Vazquez, Acevedo-Benítez, & Hernández-Santiago, 2010) es una prueba convincente de que el gobierno mexicano necesita realizar los avances necesarios. Otras investigaciones, que consideran a América del Norte como un todo y no simplemente a México, insisten en que una red eléctrica centralizada e integrada basada en fuentes de energía renovable es realmente alcanzable, con energía solar y eólica como opciones de menor costo que están bien situadas para servir como sustitutos de los combustibles fósiles (Aghahosseini, Bogdanov, & Breyer, 2017). ...
Article
Full-text available
El objetivo de esta investigación es examinar el estado de las fuentes de energía renovables en México, así como su futuro, para analizar los retos y oportunidades que permitan mejorar su gestión. Para la revisión de la literatura se siguió el método PRISMA. Los resultados muestran que México ha logrado avances en términos de una mejor financiación de proyectos de energía renovable. Sin embargo, siguen existiendo deficiencias políticas, administrativas, burocráticas y sociopolíticas.
... For solid fuels, a 50 e/ton gate fee is assumed for 2015, increasing to 100 e/ton for the year 2050 for waste incineration plants and this is reflected as negative costs for solid waste [74]. The geothermal energy potential in Nepal and Bhutan, is calculated according to the method described in Aghahosseini et al. [75]. ...
Article
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The Himalayan countries Nepal and Bhutan have been confronted with similar climate change and energy emergencies for quite a long time. Its influence is felt as a barrier in financial, social, infrastructural, and political development. Despite having an enormous amount of renewable energy sources, these countries are unable to fulfil their current energy demand. While the power sector is entirely dependent on hydropower, other sectors depend on fossil fuel imports from India. This study offers a pathway for energy independency, energy for all and transition towards a 100% renewables based energy system. The modelling of the energy sector is done using the LUT Energy System Transition model for a period from 2015 to 2050 in a 5-year time step. This study covers the main energy sectors: power, heat, and transport. Two scenarios are visualised, one considering greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and the associated mitigation cost and another without these costs, though both scenarios aim at achieving a high share of renewable energy by 2050. A substantial drop in levelised cost of energy is observed for the scenario without GHG emission cost, however, taxing GHG emissions will accelerate the energy transition with the levelised cost of energy on a similar level. It is well possible to transition from 90 €/MWh in 2015 to 49 €/MWh by 2050 for the entire energy system by utilizing indigenous low-cost renewable energy. Solar photovoltaics and hydropower will play a dominant role in 2050, having a share of 67% and 31% respectively. Consequently, this leads to zero GHG emissions. An energy transition towards a sustainable and secure energy system for all by 2050 is well possible in Nepal and Bhutan only through 100% renewable sources and it is both technically and economically feasible despite having substantial limitations in infrastructure and economic development currently.
... The potentials for biomass and waste resources were calculated based on the method described in Ref. [27] and further classified into categories of solid wastes, solid residues and biogas. Geothermal energy potential is estimated according to the method described in Ref. [61]. Maps of Ethiopia showing annual full load hours of resources can be found in the Supplementary Material ( Figure S1). ...
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100% Clean, Renewable Energy and Storage for Everything - by Mark Z Jacobson October 2020
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Thesis
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Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are a major cause of anthropogenic climate change. The deployment of wind and solar power reduces these emissions, but is subject to the variability of the weather. In the present study, we calculate the cost-optimized configuration of variable electrical power generators using weather data with high spatial (13-km) and temporal (60-min) resolution over the contiguous US. Our results show that when using future anticipated costs for wind and solar, carbon dioxide emissions from the US electricity sector can be reduced by up to 80% relative to 1990 levels, without an increase in the levelized cost of electricity. The reductions are possible with current technologies and without electrical storage. Wind and solar power increase their share of electricity production as the system grows to encompass large-scale weather patterns. This reduction in carbon emissions is achieved by moving away from a regionally divided electricity sector to a national system enabled by high-voltage direct-current transmission.
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So far, solar energy has been viewed as only a minor contributor in the energy mixture of the US due to cost and intermittency constraints. However, recent drastic cost reductions in the production of photovoltaics (PV) pave the way for enabling this technology to become cost competitive with fossil fuel energy generation. We show that with the right incentives, cost competitiveness with grid prices in the US (e.g., 6–10 US¢/kWh) can be attained by 2020. The intermittency problem is solved by integrating PV with compressed air energy storage (CAES) and by extending the thermal storage capability in concentrated solar power (CSP). We used hourly load data for the entire US and 45-year solar irradiation data from the southwest region of the US, to simulate the CAES storage requirements, under worst weather conditions. Based on expected improvements of established, commercially available PV, CSP, and CAES technologies, we show that solar energy has the technical, geographical, and economic potential to supply 69% of the total electricity needs and 35% of the total (electricity and fuel) energy needs of the US by 2050. When we extend our scenario to 2100, solar energy supplies over 90%, and together with other renewables, 100% of the total US energy demand with a corresponding 92% reduction in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions compared to the 2005 levels.
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Electricity demand modelling is the central and integral issue for the planning and operation of power systems. Load projection provides important information for electricity network planning, and it is essential for the electricity system development. This work investigates the impact of specific economic, technical and climate characteristics on the shape of the electricity demand and introduces a methodology to project electricity demand in hourly resolution within a single framework for all countries. The method used is a multiple linear regression in terms of spectral analysis. 57 real load data profiles of diverse countries were decomposed into a set of sine functions to analyse the cyclical pattern of the data. Fourier coefficients contain information about frequencies and amplitudes in these sinusoids. The sum of various sine functions can be used to calibrate and project hourly electricity demand for any country with available input data for any year in the addressed period. The accuracy of proposed model function is represented in terms of R-squared error. The proposed model is flexible to be applied to different socio-economic scenarios based on alternative assumptions regarding both long-term trends as well as short-term projections.
Article
The devastating effects of fossil fuels on the environment, limited natural sources and increasing demand for energy across the world make renewable energy sources more important than in the past. The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference resulted in a global agreement on net zero CO2 emissions shortly after the middle of the twenty-first century, which will lead to a collapse of fossil fuel demand. The focus of the study is to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system in Iran by 2030 using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of renewable energy technologies, least-cost energy supply, mix of capacities and operation modes were calculated and the role of storage technologies was examined. Two scenarios have been evaluated in this study: a countrywide scenario and an integrated scenario. In the countrywide scenario, renewable energy generation and energy storage technologies cover the country’s power sector electricity demand. In the integrated scenario, the renewable energy generated was able to fulfil both the electricity demand of the power sector and the substantial electricity demand for water desalination and synthesis of industrial gas. By adding sector integration, the total levelized cost of electricity decreased from 45.3 to 40.3 €/MWh. The levelized cost of electricity of 40.3 €/MWh in the integrated scenario is quite cost-effective and beneficial in comparison with other low-carbon but high-cost alternatives such as carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy. A 100% renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a real policy option.
Article
Power systems for South and Central America based on 100% renewable energy (RE) in the year 2030 were calculated for the first time using an hourly resolved energy model. The region was subdivided into 15 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered: three according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels (region, country, area-wide) and one integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas demand supplied by synthetic natural gas via power-togas (PtG). RE is not only able to cover 1813 TWh of estimated electricity demand of the area in 2030 but also able to generate the electricity needed to fulfil 3.9 billion m 3 of water desalination and 640 TWh LHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are decreased from 62 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 56 €/MWh for a highly centralized grid scenario (currency value of the year 2015). For the integrated scenario, the levelized cost of gas (LCOG) and the leve-lized cost of water (LCOW) are 95 €/MWh LHV and 0.91 €/m 3 , respectively. A reduction of 8% in total cost and 5% in electricity generation was achieved when integrating desalination and power-to-gas into the system.
Article
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub-regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1–9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term. The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-term to long-term for the global energy supply.
Conference Paper
This work presents a pathway for the transition to a 100% renewable energy (RE) system by 2050 for Iran. An hourly resolved model is simulated to investigate the total power capacity required from 2015 to 2050 in 5-year time steps to fulfil the electricity demand for Iran. In addition, shares of various RE resources and storage technologies have been estimated for the applied years, and all periods before in 5-year time steps. The model takes the 2015 installed power plant capacities, corresponding lifetimes and total electrical energy demand to compute and optimize the mix of RE plants needed to be installed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. The optimization is carried out on the basis of assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. Moreover, the role of storage technologies in the energy system, and integration of the power sector with desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors are examined. Our results reveal that RE technologies can fulfil all electricity demand by the year 2050 at a price level of about 32-44 €/MWhel depending on the sectorial integration. Moreover, the combination of solar PV and battery storage is found as a least cost solution after 2030 for Iran. 1. Introduction A transition to an energy system based on 100% renewable energy (RE) is not only possible but also is necessary to respond to rapidly increasing energy demand and address the current climate crisis. However, variability of renewable sources (in particular solar and wind) poses concerns regarding the reliability and cost of an energy system that derives a large fraction of its energy from these sources. This has led to the emergence of energy storage as a key technology in the management of larger shares of energy from renewable sources. Sustainable energy scenarios have been introduced and developed for various parts of the world to highlight possible future energy systems and broaden the perspectives of decision makers on what they should take into consideration [1], [2]. Examining renewable based energy scenarios in Iran is a challenging and interesting case study because of the following country characteristics:
Thesis
As electricity generation based on volatile renewable resources is subject to fluctuations, data with high temporal and spatial resolution on their availability is indispensable for integrating large shares of renewable capacities into energy infrastructures. The scope of the present doctoral thesis is to enhance the existing energy modelling environment REMix in terms of (i.) extending the geographic coverage of the potential assessment tool REMix-EnDaT from a European to a global scale, (ii.) adding a new plant siting optimization module REMix-PlaSMo, capable of assessing siting effects of renewable power plants on the portfolio output and (iii.) adding a new alternating current power transmission model between 30 European countries and CSP electricity imports from power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East via high voltage direct current links into the module REMix-OptiMo. With respect to the global potential assessment tool, a thorough investigation is carried out creating an hourly global inventory of the theoretical potentials of the major renewable resources solar irradiance, wind speed and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.45°x0.45°. A detailed global land use analysis determines eligible sites for the installation of renewable power plants. Detailed power plant models for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power allow for the assessment of power output, cost per kWh and respective full load hours taking into account the theoretical potentials, technological as well as economic data. The so-obtined tool REMix-EnDaT can be used as follows: First, as an assessment tool for arbitrary geographic locations, countries or world regions, deriving either site-specific or aggregated installable capacities, cost as well as full load hour potentials. Second, as a tool providing input data such as installable capacities and hourly renewable electricity generation for further assessments using the modules REMix-PlasMo and OptiMo. The plant siting tool REMix-PlaSMo yields results as to where the volatile power technologies photovoltaics and wind are to be located within a country in order to gain distinct effects on their aggregated power output. Three different modes are implemented: (a.) Optimized plant siting in order to obtain the cheapest generation cost, (b.) a minimization of the photovoltaic and wind portfolio output variance and (c.) a minimization of the residual load variance. The third fundamental addition to the REMix model is the amendment of the module REMix-OptiMo with a new power transmission model based on the DC load flow approximation. Moreover, electricity imports originating from concentrating solar power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East are now feasible. All of the new capabilities and extensions of REMix are employed in three case studies: In case study 1, using the module REMix-EnDaT, a global potential assessment is carried out for 10 OECD world regions, deriving installable capacities, cost and full load hours for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power. According to the latter, photovoltaics will represent the cheapest technology in 2050, an average of 1634 full load hours could lead to an electricity generation potential of some 5500 PWh. Although CSP also taps solar irradiance, restrictions in terms of suitable sites for erecting power plants are more severe. For that reason, the maximum potential amounts to some 1500 PWh. However, thermal energy storage can be used, which, according to this assessment, could lead to 5400 hours of full load operation. Onshore wind power could tap a potential of 717 PWh by 2050 with an average of 2200 full load hours while offshore, wind power plants could achieve a total power generation of 224 PWh with an average of 3000 full load hours. The electricity generation potential of hydro power exceeds 3 PWh, 4600 full load hours of operation are reached on average. In case study 2, using the module REMix-PlaSMo, an assessment for Morocco is carried out as to determine limits of volatile power generation in portfolios approaching full supply based on renewable power. The volatile generation technologies are strategically sited at specific locations to take advantage of available resources conditions. It could be shown that the cost optimal share of volatile power generation without considering storage or transmission grid extensions is one third. Moreover, the average power generation cost using a portfolio consisting of PV, CSP, wind and hydro power can be stabilized at about 10 €ct/kWh by the year 2050. In case study 3, using the module REMix-OptiMo, a validation of a TRANS-CSP scenario based upon high shares of renewable power generation is carried out. The optimization is conducted on an hourly basis using a least cost approach, thereby investigating if and how demand is met during each hour of the investigated year. It could be shown, that the assumed load can safely be met in all countries for each hour using the scenario's power plant portfolio. Furthermore, it was proven that dispatchable renewable power generation, in particular CSP imports to Europe, have a system stabilizing effect. Using the suggested concept, the utilization of the transfer capacities between countries would decrease until 2050.
Article
As many other small islands and archipelagos, the Canary Islands depend to a high degree on energy imports. Despite its small surface, the archipelago has a high potential for renewable energy (RE) technologies. In this paper, we present a scenario pathway to a 100% RE supply in the Canary Islands by 2050. It relies on a back-casting approach linking the bottom-up accounting framework Mesap-PlaNet and the high resolution power system model REMix. Our analysis shows that locally available technology potentials are sufficient for a fully renewable supply of the islands’ power, heat, and land transport energy demands. To follow the pathway for achieving a carbon neutral supply, expansion of RE technology deployment needs to be accelerated in the short-term and efforts towards greater energy efficiency must be increased. According to our results, an extended linkage between energy sectors through electric vehicles as well as electric heating, and the usage of synthetic hydrogen can contribute notably to the integration of intermittent RE power generation. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of power transmission in RE supply systems. Supply costs are found 15% lower in a scenario considering sea cable connections between all islands.
Article
Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
Conference Paper
Saudi Arabia is in the midst of redefining the vision for the country's future and creating an economy that is not dependent on fossil fuels. This work presents a pathway for Saudi Arabia to transition from the 2015 power structure to a 100% renewable energy based system by 2050 and analyse the benefits of integrating the power sector with the growing desalination sector. It is found that Saudi Arabia can transition to a 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 whilst meeting the growing water demand through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants. The dominating renewable energy sources are PV single-axis tracking and wind power plants with 210 GW and 133 GW, respectively. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of the 2040 system is 48 €/MWh. By 2050, PV single-axis tracking dominates the power sector due to the further reduction in the capital costs alongside cost reductions in supporting battery technology. This results in 80% share of solar PV in the total electricity generation. Battery storage is required to meet the total electricity demand and by 2050, accounts for 48% of the total electricity demand. The LCOE is estimated at 38 €/MWh, required capacity of PV single-axis tracking is 369 GW and wind power plants 75 GW. In the integrated scenario, due to flexibility provided by the SWRO plants, there is a reduced demand for battery storage and power-togas (PtG) plants. In addition, the ratio of the energy curtailed to the total energy generated is lower in all time periods from 2020 to 2050, in the integrated scenario. As a result, the annual levelised costs of the integrated scenario is found to be 2%-4% less than the non-integrated scenario.
Conference Paper
In this work, a 100% renewable energy (RE)-based energy system for the year 2030 for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim 1 , and Eurasia was prepared and evaluated and various impacts of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES) were researched on an hourly resolution for one year. To overcome the intermittency of RE sources and guarantee regular supply of electricity, energy sources are complemented by five energy storage options: batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), thermal energy storage (TES), (A-CAES) and power-togas (PtG). In a region-wide scenario the energy system integration is within a sub-region of the individual large areas of Southeast Asia and Eurasia. In this scenario simulation were performed with and without A-CAES integration. For Southeast Asia and Eurasia, the integration of A-CAES has an impact on the share of a particular storage used and this depends on the seasonal variation in RE generation, the supply share of wind energy and demand in the individual areas. For the region-wide scenario for Southeast Asia (region with low seasonal variation and lower supply share of wind energy) the share of A-CAES output was 1.9% in comparison to Eurasia (region with high seasonal variation and a high supply share of wind energy) which had 28.6%. The other impact which was observed was the distribution of the storage technologies after A-CAES integration, since battery output and PtG output were decreased by 72.9% and 21.6% (Eurasia) and 5.5% and 1.6% (Southeast Asia), respectively. However, a large scale grid integration reduces the demand for A-CAES storage drastically and partly even to zero due to substitution by grids, which has been only observed for A-CAES, but not for batteries and PtG. The most valuable application for A-CAES seems to be in rather decentralized or nationwide energy system designs and as a well-adapted storage for the typical generation profiles of wind energy.
Article
This study demonstrates how seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plants, necessary to meet increasing future global water demand, can be powered solely through renewable energy. Hybrid PV–wind–battery and power-to-gas (PtG) power plants allow for optimal utilisation of the installed desalination capacity, resulting in water production costs competitive with that of existing fossil fuel powered SWRO plants. In this paper, we provide a global estimate of the water production cost for the 2030 desalination demand with renewable electricity generation costs for 2030 for an optimised local system configuration based on an hourly temporal and 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to about 2374 million m3/day. The levelised cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.59 €/m3–2.81 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The global system required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to cost 9790 billion € of initial investments. It is possible to overcome the water supply limitations in a sustainable and financially competitive way.
Article
We investigate the prospects of three zero-emission scenarios for achieving the target of limiting global mean temperature rise to 2 °C or below, and compare them with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario involving no climate policy intervention. The “2100 zero” emissions scenario requires zero emissions after 2100 until 2150. The “350 ppm zero” emissions scenario entails zero emissions in the latter half of this century, which can be achieved by the cumulative emissions constraints of the Wigley–Richels–Edmonds (WRE) 350 from 2010 to 2150. Finally, the “net zero” scenario requires zero cumulative emissions from 2010 to 2150, allowing positive emissions over the coming several decades that would be balanced-out by negative emissions in the latter half of the century. The role of biomass energy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) with forested land is also assessed with these scenarios. The results indicate that the 2 °C target can be achieved in the “net zero” scenario, while the “350 ppm zero” scenario would result in a temperature rise of 2.4 °C. The “2100 zero” scenario achieved a 4.1 °C increase, while the BAU reached about 5.2 °C. BECCS contributed to achieving zero-emission requirements while providing a limited contribution to energy supply. The findings indicate substantial future challenges for the management of forested land.