Book

Evidence-Based Climate Science: Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as the Primary Source of Global Warming: Second Edition

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Evidence-Based Climate Science: Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as the Primary Source of Global Warming, Second Edition, includes updated data related to the causes of global climate change from experts in meteorology, geology, atmospheric physics, solar physics, geophysics, climatology, and computer modeling. This book objectively gathers and analyzes scientific data concerning patterns of past climate changes, influences of changes in ocean temperatures, the effect of solar variation on global climate, and the effect of CO2 on global climate. This analysis is then presented as counter-evidence to the theory that CO2 is the primary cause behind global warming. Increasingly, scientists are pointing to data which suggests that climate changes are a result of natural cycles, which have been occurring for thousands of years. Unfortunately, global warming has moved into the political realm without enough peer-reviewed research to fully validate and exclude other, more natural, causes of climate change. For example, there is an absence of any physical evidence that CO2 causes global warming, so the only argument for CO2 as the cause of warming rests entirely in computer modeling. Thus, the question becomes, how accurate are the computer models in predicting climate? What other variables could be missing from the models? In order to understand modern climate changes, we need to look at the past history of climate changes. Vast amounts of physical evidence of climate change over the past centuries and millennia have been gathered by scientists. Significant climate changes have clearly been going on for many thousands of years, long before the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 Evidence-Based Climate Science, Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as the Primary Source of Global Warming, Second Edition, documents past climate changes and presents physical evidence for possible causes. Provides scientific evidence for issues related to global climate change that is not readily available elsewhere. Offers detailed analysis of temperature measurements with the goal of helping readers to understand conflicting claims about global warming heard every day in the news media. Presents real-time data on polar ice. Presents the real-time effect of CO2 on global warming, rather than forecasts based on computer models.
... Menej pozornosti sa venovalo detailnejším analýzam klímy počas minulých geologických období, a to hlavne Holocénu. Najnovšie klimatologické štúdie na základe analýz ľadovcových jadier napríklad poukazujú na cyklické zmeny klímy v období Holocénu (EASTERBROOK 2011). Väčšia časť Holocénu bola teplejšia ako súčasnosť, s výnimkou mierne chladnejšej periódy pred približne 8200 rokmi (CUFFEY a CLOW 1997). ...
... 1300 až 1900). Taktiež sú známe cykly na úrovni približne každých 27 rokov (EASTERBROOK 2011). Cyklicita klímy je evidovaná aj na našom území (MO-RAVCOVÁ 2010), jej prejavom bolo striedanie sa období povodňového pokoja s obdobiami zvýšenej povodňovej aktivity (PEKÁROVÁ et al. 2011). ...
... Other gasses contribute only 11% [1]. The increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is very prominent in 2017 which is reached 405.5 ppm, increased from 403.3 ppm in 2016 and 400.1 ppm in 2015 [2]. Current climate change is strongly influenced by global warming due to increased concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere, especially CO2 [3]. ...
... The biomass of coffee was estimated using equation [3], i.e. W = 0,281 D 2.06 (2) where : W = biomass (MT ha -1 ) D = Diameter of tree or nekromass up to 1.3 m height ...
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Increase of CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere has increasingly become an issue as it causes global warming. Such an increase is partly brought about by change in land use and land cover. The research is aimed at identifying type of cropping system in smallholder coffee plantation in Tana Toraja district that provide the best CO 2 sequestration. The CO 2 sequestration were analysed by sampling the CO 2 content of plant biomass, plant residues, stems, soil organic matters, and undercover plants at varieties of coffee cropping system in Rante Deata village. The best CO 2 sequestration is the cropping system of coffee with Gliricidia (Gliricidia sepium) as shading plant (231.25 MT CO 2 ha-1), followed by the intercrop of cocoa and coffee with Gliricidia (Gliricidia sepium) and suren (Toona sureni) as shading plant (198.55 MT CO 2 ha-1). The least CO 2 sequestration is obtained at the cropping system of coffee – clove intercrop without shading plant (137.44 MT CO 2 ha-1).
... Sunspots are dark features on the solar surface called photospheres (Figure 1,top left) appearing at start of each cycle at latitudes of about 30 degrees in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (Figure 1, top middle and right) ) forming sunspot groups and migrating towards the equator as the cycle progresses (Spoerer & Maunder 1890). The polarities of leading and trailing sunspots in each hemisphere are maintained during a given cycle and change to the Source: Top: Belgian Royal Observatory; Middle: Lean et al. 1995;Bottom: Lee III et al. 1995;and Easterbrook 2016. opposite polarities in the following cycle (Hale's law) (Hale et al.,1919) as shown in Figure 1 (bottom) with a change of north (blue) and south (red) magnetic polarities during an eleven-year cycle. ...
... During the previous GSM (Maunder minimum) solar irradiance was reduced by about 0.22% (Lean et al. 1995;Miller et al. 2012), that, in turn, led to a decrease in the average terrestrial temperature in the Northern Hemisphere of about 1.0 °C as shown in Figure 10.2 (bottom plot) (Lamb 1972;Shindell et al, 2001;Miller et al. 2012;Easterbrook 2016). During these modern GSMs the similar decrease about 0.22% of solar irradiance is expected. ...
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In this study we overview recent advances with prediction of solar activity using as a proxy solar background magnetic field and detection of grand solar cycles of about 400 years separated by grand solar minima (GSMs).The previous GSM known as the Maunder minimum was recorded from 1645 to 1715. The terrestrial temperature during Maunder Minimum was reduced by up to 1.0C that led to freezing rivers, cold winters and summers. The modern GSM started in 2020 and will last for three solar cycles until 2053. During this GSM two processes will affect the input of solar radiation: a decrease of solar activity and an increase in total solar irradiance because of solar inertial motion (SIM). For evaluation of the latter this study uses daily ephemeris of the Sun-Earth (SE) distances in two millennia from 600 to 2600 showing significant decreases of SE distances in the first 6 months of a year by 0.005 au in 600 to 1600 and by more than 0.01 au in 1600 to 2600 with consequent increases of SE distances in the second halves of a year. Although, these increases are not fully symmetric in the second millennium (1600 to 2600), during which the longest SE distances are gradually shifted from 21 June to 12 July while the shortest ones from 21 December to 12 January. These distance variations impose significant increases of solar irradiance in the first six months of each year in the two millennia, which are not fully offset by the solar radiation decreases in the last six months in millennium 1600 to 2600. This misbalance creates an annual surplus of solar radiation to be processed by the terrestrial atmosphere and ocean environments that can lead to an increase of terrestrial temperature. We estimate that decrease of solar activity during GSM combined with its increase imposed by SIM will lead to a reduction of terrestrial temperature during the modern GSM to the levels of 1700.
... Assuming f lows similar to contemporary river discharge (~0.32 km 3 /yr from Olson, 2010), similar valley paleotopography and no seepage through the dam, we estimate that it would have only taken perhaps six years to fill the lake with water. Our ages on lake sediments associated with the damming (see below) suggest that the lake existed during the regional peak of the Pinedale glaciation around 17 ka (Thackray et al., 2004;Easterbrook et al., 2011). ...
... The initiation mechanisms for both the Soldier Bar and Middle Fork landslides are not known, though both regional seismicity and late-glacial warming and slope saturation are possible causes. Both landslides formed close to the time of maximum or near-maximum Marine Isotope Stage 2 glacial advance in the Sawtooth Mountains, just before 16.9 ka, when precipitation was higher than today and hillslopes less stable (Thackray et al., 2004;Easterbrook et al., 2011). The other smaller landslide features noted along Big Creek may have similar causes, or could have been initiated as the filling of Big Creek Lake raised pore pressures in rock fractures, initiating rotational or translational sliding during the time of impoundment. ...
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Geomorphic mapping coupled with optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating reveal the late Pleistocene history and geomorphic development of the narrow canyon of Big Creek, a major tributary to the Middle Fork of the Salmon River in central Idaho. The most prominent feature in the region is the Soldier Bar landslide, which consists of slumped and rotated blocks of Mesoproterozoic quartzite bedrock that slid northward from an arcuate headwall, damming both the east-flowing Big Creek and Goat Creek, a south-draining tributary. Water impounded behind the dam ultimately overtopped the deposit. Overflow laterally eroded a flight of four downstream-sloping spillway terraces into the jumbled landslide deposit at elevations over a range of 450 ft (137 m). These elevations, initially estimated from 1:24,000 topographic maps with 40-foot contours, are 4,500 ft (1,372 m), 4,340 ft (1,323 m), 4,200 ft (1,280 m), and 4,050 ft (1,234 m). At the level of the highest spillway, the narrow lake extended ~17 miles (28 km) upstream from the inferred dam at Soldier Bar, but only impounded 2 km 3 of water. Assuming current river discharge and no seepage, it would have taken only six years to fill the lake to this level. We use a simple sedimentological model based on the forced regression of fan deltas to interpret the numerous fluvio-lacustrine deposits found along Big Creek. Remnants of alluvial terraces, shoreline deposits, and deep-water lacustrine sediments enable reconstruction of the Soldier Bar landslide dam and the long, narrow Big Creek Lake. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) age estimates from deep water sediment just above Cabin Creek indicate a lake level well above 4,160 ft (1,268 m) at 17.1 ± 1.4 ka. Fluvial sands near Taylor Ranch at 4,124 ft (1,257 m) demonstrate that the lake had drained to this level by 11.3 ± 0.8 ka. Today, the slope of Big Creek steepens threefold immediately downstream of the Soldier Bar landslide knickpoint, suggesting that the landslide event inhibited upstream propagation of the regional incision signal from the Middle Fork of the Salmon River into Big Creek.
... The EU-funded Marie Curie Research and Training Network "CRONUS-EU", as well as the American partner network "CRONUS-Earth", have spent the past 7 years locating sites all over the globe where production rates of terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (mainly 3 He, 10 Be, 14 C, 21 Ne, 26 Al, and 36 Cl) can be determined with improved accuracy. It is more important than ever that the production rates be well-established and accurate (to AE5%), not in the least because exposure-age data have contributed significantly to the climate-change debate (e.g., Easterbrook et al., 2011), but also because exposure ages are increasingly being compared to other Quaternary age-dating methods in global-climate studies. In fact, Balco (2011) states, "it is rare to find a study of glacial geology or glacier chronology, or any paleoclimate synthesis that makes use of such studies, that does not involve exposure dating". ...
... The relationship between GHG and global warming is solar radiation in the form of short waves received by the surface of the earth, then emitted back into the atmosphere in the form of long waves (infrared radiation) into space, but by GHG re-emitted to the surface of the earth, causing heat called the greenhouse effect. The main GHGs in the atmosphere are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrogen oxides (N2O), and ozone (O3) [2]. Global warming is a global phenomenon that is triggered by human activities, especially those related to the use of fossil materials and land use change activities. ...
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Cocoa plantations have ecological functions as carbon sinks and depositors. Cocoa absorbs CO2 during photosynthesis, then converts it to carbohydrates by storing it in the form of biomass in roots, trees, and leaves. The purpose of this study was to determine the carbon uptake of cocoa trees and tree growers, undergrowth, necromasses, carbon uptake at the root and carbon uptake in soils in several cocoa planting systems implemented in Bantaeng Regency, South Sulawesi. Sampling is done by a purposive sampling method with the basic consideration of the type, density and cropping system applied. Biomass estimation is used the non-destructive method by measuring the diameter at breast height (DBH, 1.3 m) and height of cacao and shade plants. Carbon storage in cocoa plants is distinguished by several cropping systems, namely K1 (monoculture harvesters) and K2 (multistrata harvesters). The results showed that carbon reserves in Bantaeng Regency were 32.38 tons/Ha.
... Therefore, this is not the reason for long-term climate change (Berini, 2010;Li et al., 2020). Confusion arises when it is claimed that CO 2 does not warm climate, rather warming climate increases atmospheric CO 2 released from the ocean (Easterbrook, 2011). However, it has been unambiguously confirmed that CO 2 is the main driver of global warming. ...
Chapter
Climate change is affecting many facets of our lives and livelihoods, and food production is one of them. While the world population continues to increase, agricultural land and food production are being impacted by climate change at an ever-increasing rate. This chapter looks at climate change and its impacts on agri-food systems and food production. It briefly looks at the science of climate change, some projections, including rainfall and temperature projections to the end of the 21st century, and then is followed by a discussion of impacts of several climate-change–related stressors on agri-food production. Some of the stressors discussed include extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, cyclones, and heat waves; sea-level rise, including inundation and salinity; invasive alien plant species; pests and pathogens; and neglected and underutilized crop species.
... Numerous papers and books (e.g. [2,[12][13][14][15][16][17][18]) have shown that the main driving force is the variations in solar emission of irradiance and Solar Wind (Fig. 3, [12,14], where the solar variability is controlled by planetary beat. ...
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Climate always changes: on the longer-term base as well as on the centennial and decadal base. From 1970 to 2000, Earth experienced a “global warming” of about +0.6 °C. IPCC and its proponents claim that this is due to man-made CO2 emission; i.e. anthropogenic global warming (AGW). We, the climate realists, claim that this is nonsense and that all present day warming is due to normal natural variations in climate; i.e. natural global warming (NGW). In the it is shown that only the NGW concept (i.e. planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction) is trustworthy and realistic.
... The most extreme case, however, is that in which the data are made to conform to their expected behavior with appropriate adjustments to the homogenization procedure (Marohasy, 2016) (Rose, 2017). In the case of reanalysis, station data are homogenized to correct for differences in instrumentation, measurement methods, and the time of day that the measurements were made so that the data may be "assimilated" into a well behaved time series that meets climate model requirements (Kennel, 2016) (Hulme, 2010). ...
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A month by month trend analysis of daily maximum and daily minimum temperature data from Fort Collins, Boulder, and Cheesman USHCN weather stations in northeastern Colorado for the period 1893-2014 is presented. The results show anomalous and incompatible patterns in long term temperature trends among the three stations that serve to question the use of the Fort Collins data as empirical evidence of global warming. The findings are consistent with questions raised by others with respect USHCN data integrity, the homogenization of incompatible station data into regional climatology, and the greater validity and information content of observational data over derived synthetic data 1 .
... A review of global climate changes since 1700 has revealed that over the centuries, twenty climatic events covering continental-scale temperature fluctuations, hydroclimatic anomalies, stratospheric perturbations and general atmospheric composition changes have occurred, impacting millions of people in many ways [1][2][3][4]. As such, understanding and predicting these inter-annual, and multi-decadal variations and changes in climate and the resultant impacts has become a critical and active area of research globally over the decades. ...
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This paper reviews developments in climate science and hydrological modelling studies in Zimbabwe over the past 29 years in an effort to expose knowledge gaps within this research domain. We initially give a global and regional overview and then follow a systematic thematic approach in reviewing specifically online published, peer-reviewed journal articles on climate change/variability and hydrological modelling in Zimbabwe. The state and progress towards advanced integrated climate and hydrological modelling research are assessed, tracking benchmarks in the research methodologies (tools and techniques) used therein including geographic information systems and remote sensing. We present descriptive summaries of key findings, highlighting the main study themes (categories) and general conclusions arising from these studies while examining their implications for future climate and hydrological modelling research in Zimbabwe. Challenges associated with climate and hydrological modelling research in Zimbabwe are also briefly discussed and the main knowledge gaps in terms of research scope and methodologies employed in the reviewed studies also exposed. We conclude by presenting plausible potential areas of focus in updating and advancing scientific knowledge to better understand the climate-land use-hydrology nexus in Zimbabwe. While this paper is primarily relevant for researchers, the general findings are also important for policy-makers since it exposes potential areas for policy intervention or agenda setting in as far as climate and hydrology science research is concerned so as to effectively address pertinent questions in this domain in Zimbabwe.
... What is noticeable is that the more research explores the past, the more the anthropogenic thesis is weakened, as demonstrated by Davis (2017) and Harde (2019) by finding that changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration did not cause changes in ancient climate temperature and climate change is not related to the carbon cycle, but rather to native impacts. Easterbrook (2016), in his evidence-based book brought data opposing CO2 emissions as the primary source of global warming, the thesis of which has been captured by politics and dubious computer modeling. ...
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Global warming has divided the scientific community worldwide with predominance for anthropogenic alarmism. This article aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic model of paleotemperature time series and compare it with the dominant thesis. The ARIMA model, an integrated autoregressive process of moving averages, popularly known as Box-Jenkins, was used for this purpose. The results showed that the estimates of the model parameters were below 1 degree Celsius for a scenario of 100 years which suggests a period of temperature reduction and a probable cooling, contrary to the prediction of the IPCC and the anthropogenic current of an increase in 1,50 degree to 2,0 degree Celsius by the end of this century. Thus, we hope with this study to contribute to the discussion by adding a statistical element of paleoclimate in counterpoint to the current consensus and to placing the debate in a long term historical dimension, in line with other research already present in the scientific literature.
... Atmospheric humidity strongly influences the transfer of moisture between the surface and the atmosphere, the formation of clouds, fog and smog (Elliott and Angell, 1997;Nilo et al., 2020), besides being an important and the most abundant atmospheric greenhouse gas (Easterbrook, 2016;NOAA Climate Monitoring, 2020). Furthermore, it is a key parameter in most environmental studies playing a fundamental role in the energy and hydrological cycles (Chahine, 1992;Peixóto and Oort, 1983), in the water balance at local and regional scale (Draper and Mills, 2008), in the climate (Trenberth, 1999) and in chemical processes of water-soluble species in the atmosphere (Stull, 1988). ...
Article
Reliable values of relative humidity are basic inputs for modelling in many disciplines and in the most disparate scientific fields. Unfortunately, humidity variables remain less focused than other meteorological parameters and generally suffer from considerable uncertainty mainly due to the fact that their observations are not widely available, fostering the use of the observations of other meteorological quantities to estimate them. The aim of this work is to assess the loss in daily maximum and minimum relative humidity accuracy when sampling interval becomes coarser than one hour. For this purpose, meteorological data from the ERA5 dataset, the most advanced reanalysis product released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are used. Among the many advantages of ERA5 over the previous release ERA-Interim are the finer temporal resolution and data archived at the hourly time step. Near-surface relative humidity is derived using 1- and 3-hourly reanalysis data of 2-m temperature, 2-m dew-point temperature and surface pressure. Deviations from the actual values, as obtained from reference measures acquired at 15 minute intervals, are evaluated. Results show that the biases of the ERA5-based values are consistently reduced compared to its predecessor and that the performance of the calculated 1-hourly time resolution relative humidity data is almost equivalent to using observations. Reducing the sampling interval from three to one hour provides a significant improvement in data quality. The results indicate significant increases in errors in the estimates when the temporal resolution of the meteorological inputs becomes coarser than one hour, exceeding also the numerical and approximation errors due to simplifying assumptions in the theoretical and empirical formulas used. The positive impact of improving temporal resolution from ERA-Interim to ERA5 reanalysis is also quantified by the number of the correct relative humidity extremes increasing by 50%.
... A survey of global climate changes since 1700 has recognised that over the centuries, twenty climatic events covering continental-scale temperature dips, hydroclimatic anomalies, stratospheric perturbations and global atmospheric composition changes have occurred, hitting millions of people in many ways (Bronnimann, 2015;Easterbrook, 2016). ...
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Knowing water quality at larger scales and related ground and surface water interactions impacted by land use and climate is essential to our future protection and restoration investments. Population growth has driven humankind into the Anthropocene where continuous water quality degradation is a global phenomenon as shown by extensive recalcitrant chemical contamination, increased eutrophication, hazardous algal blooms, and faecal contamination connected with microbial hazards antibiotic resistance. In this framework, climate change and related extreme events indeed exacerbate the negative trend in water quality. Notwithstanding the increasing concern in climate change and water security, research linking climate change and groundwater quality remain early. Additional research is required to improve our knowledge of climate and groundwater interactions and integrated groundwater management. Long-term monitoring of groundwater, surface water, vegetation, and land-use patterns must be supported and fortified to quantify baseline properties. Concerning the ways climate change affects water quality, limited literature data are available. This study investigates the link between climate change and groundwater quality aquifers by examining case studies of regional carbonate aquifers located in Central Italy. This study also highlights the need for strategic groundwater management policy and planning to decrease groundwater quality due to aquifer resource shortages and climate change factors. In this scenario, the role of the Society of Environmental Geochemistry is to work together within and across geochemical environments linked with the health of plants, animals, and humans to respond to multiple challenges and opportunities made by global warming.
... One of the most popular types of emissions recorded is greenhouse gases (GHG), which are gases that absorb and emit infrared radiation. Water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone are the GHG present in the Earth's atmosphere [15]. The earth's greenhouse effect has increased significantly since the industrial revolution [16]. ...
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Climate change is one of the biggest threats to humanity in the near future. Almost all different scenarios of climate change involve large-scale disasters and hazards. In order to define goals to cities, regions and countries in regards to mitigating climatic change, we first need to understand which the important key performance indicators (KPIs) are, how they can be measured and which values they take. Then, each country can calculate its performance based on these KPIs, setting realistic goals for better performance in the near future. This paper performs a large survey to identify and list 63 relevant KPIs, together with suggested units and metrics associated with them, divided in eight different thematic areas. It can be considered as an important contribution in the global efforts to understand climatic change, shaping policies and setting goals associated with it.
... It is well known that during the Dark Age cold period (450-900 AD) one of the largest human migrations triggered by catastrophes mostly related to miserable climatic conditions occurred [7]. In the following Medieval Warm Period (MWP) (900-1300 AD) Vikings landed in Greenland, sailed through the NW passage and grapes were grown as far north as England [8]; that is, about 500 km north of present. This implies that temperature was 1-2 • C higher than present [9]. ...
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The study area is located in NW Sardinia Island (Italy), Mediterranean Sea. Sardinia is considered stable since the late Pliocene with a negligible subsidence of about 0.01 mm/y. It is therefore normally used to reconstruct the Pleistocene and Holocene sea level curves. Our research focusses on the sea-facing city of Alghero that from 1353 to 1720 was under the Spanish government. During this time, the city was renovated and new buildings edified. Dimension stones were quarried all around Alghero both in the nearby inland and along the coast. Coastal quarries were considered the most suitable for both rock quality and the easiest way to transport the quarried material by boat. The quarried rocks are late Pleistocene dune and beach sandstones deposited from the 132 ka (Marine Isotopic Stage—MIS5) to about 65 ka (MIS4). Sandstones crop out from few cm to 3 m above the present sea level and underwent several consolidation processes related to loading and marine weathering. This latter favoured dissolution and circulation of calcium carbonate which cemented the rocks. It is reported that the Spanish were looking for these “marine” sandstones for their high geotechnical characteristics. Different rules were adopted through time for the size of the dimension stones and this has allowed us to establish a quarry exploitation chronology. For example, “40 × 60 × 20” cm was the size of the dimension stones used for the Alghero Cathedral dated at 1505–1593. Nowadays most of the coastal Spanish quarry floors are 30 centimetres below mean sea level (tidal range is 30 cm). Accordingly, we infer that relative sea level from 1830 AD (and of the Little Ice Age) rose in about 200 years to the present level at the rate of about 1.4 mm/y. Considering that relative sea level rise during the Medieval warm period was of 0.6 mm/y over a period of about 400 years, we may deduce that human influence was strong enough to lead to a relative sea-level rise faster and in shorter time.
Article
In this paper, a framework for best practice for incorporating climate change and adaption in Africa is presented from mainly the water resources design and management perspectives to chart systematically ways of incorporating climate change in engineering design of water development projects. This will enable engineers to address the challenges of Africa’s vulnerability to climate change and variability which has direct impacts on water availability, access and use which is the source of food and livelihood security for millions of the continent’s population. Climate change and variability is projected to affect the hydrological cycle, which, in turn, may alter the balance between water availability leading to uncertainty as to the onset of rainy seasons, dry spells, and more frequent extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods. Using case studies, the authors outline adaptation strategies to be adopted using an integrated approach in the consideration of climate change in engineering design and management of water resources systems that also link to operational aspects of water development projects. The paper also provides a set of suggested best practices in engineering design and innovative approaches to water development involving operation and management of dams and catchments in the face of climate change and variability.
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Efforts to place recent climate observations in a long-term context have been driven by concerns about whether the global warming trend of the 20th century is part of natural climate variability or whether it is linked to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. A new perspective on the climate and its changes is offered, highlighting those that occur due to natural cycles, which are generally not widespread. With the historical background on how the climate varied in the past, statistical research was conducted using time series techniques and spectral/harmonic analysis (Fourier series and spectrograms), which allowed the determination of periodic natural phenomena and their magnitudes in national variations of temperature. It was identified that the air surface temperature in Brazil expresses cycles of 4 years (oceanic-atmospheric origin related to ENSO), 33 years (Brückner cycles, lunar-solar origin) and 82 years (lower Gleissberg cycle, solar origin). Based on an alternative oscillatory model that incorporates such natural cycles, future projections of the air temperature in the country were prepared. For the year 2100, it is predicted that the air temperature in Brazil may reach the value of +1.8 ± 0.6 °C, according to the natural oscillatory model. In comparison, conventional models typically used by the IPCC indicate, by the end of the century, an increase of: +2.9 ± 1.2 °C (RCP4.5 model, with mitigation); +3.9 °C (SRES A1 model); and +5.7 ± 1.7 °C (RCP8.5 model, without mitigation). The most extreme values of conventional models reach proportions up to 4 times greater than the results obtained in the alternative model provided here. Analyzing the adherence of the models, it is concluded that the conventional models are overestimating and exaggerating a warming rate in Brazil that, in reality, has not been observed. The proposed natural oscillatory model, which has a high correlation with the data observed so far, indicates an increase in temperature in Brazil that may reach a modest value of +0.8 °C in 2040. For the same year, the SRES A1 and RCP8.5 models indicate values around +2.0 °C – which represents more than double of the projection based on natural climate cycles. Based on the projections that indicate a moderate warming, not so exaggerated, a new perspective of a less terrifying future climate is offered. In a context in which pernicious alarmist discourses predominate, spreading scenarios of apocalyptic global warming, it is hoped that new pondered views could help to appease the level of concern that today, has culminated in undesirable side effects - especially the high levels of eco-anxiety that has afflicted significant portions of society.
Preprint
In the first of a three-part study, a novel data-driven approach to estimate and quantify the indirect time-varying effects of solar irradiance on sea surface temperature and the climate system, has been proposed. The spatial resolution of this study is the region encompassing the South China Marginal Seas. The study seeks to revisit the question of of the effects of solar radiative forcing on regional temperatures and climatic changes. Analysis is based on statistical methods and proceeds in three main steps: 1). The use of Cumulative Deviations (CD) Test and Standardized Normal Heterogeneity Test (SNHT) to derive oscillatory patterns of all input variables followed by the use of observational methods / simple mathematical calculations to derive the maximum lag between SSN/TSI and SST 2). The use of more stringent statistical techniques including cross-correlation analysis, coherency analysis and cross-spectrum analysis, to validate results of step 1 3). Tests for linear association between solar irradiance and SST performed prior to, and after the incorporation of the observed maximum phase lag, using correlation and linear regression analysis, and displayed in the form of line graphs and scatter plots. The results of step one and two, validated by statistical tests in stage 2, reveal that there is a maximum lag of approximately 42-42.5 years between solar irradiance and SST.Taking the maximum lag into consideration the linear association between SST and TSI/SSN improves drastically. The observed oscillatory patterns of SST are found to further correspond closely with high frequency 11 year solar cycles(moderate-5.0 to strong 7.1 correlations) once the background lag is applied. The study thus concludes that the period identified as the modern solar optimum (1910-1957) contributed significantly to the sea's thermal optimum from 1951-1998, about four decades later.
Chapter
In this chapter, a framework for best practice for climate change adaption in Africa is presented, predominantly from the water and natural resources perspective to systematically chart out ways for adaptive capacity building. Africa’s vulnerability to climate change and variability has direct impacts on water availability, access and use. Water is the source of food and livelihood security for millions of its population. The future of food and livelihood security is likely to be challenged due to global environmental changes, particularly global climatic changes, and emerging evidence has gradually demonstrated this fact. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that global and regional surface temperature and precipitation are likely to change with mixed degrees of severity due to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and other anthropogenic gas emissions. There is high level of consensus on the likely effect of this on all aspects of the hydrological cycle, which in turn may alter the balance between water availability, food demand and supply in time and space in many parts of the world. Climate variability is also projected to increase, leading to uncertainty in the onset of rainy seasons and more frequent extreme weather events, such as more severe droughts and floods. Africa is particularly vulnerable to these environmental changes due to a predominance of rainfed agriculture, limited resource base and weak structural setups to monitor and mitigate climate changes. In the quest for future water and food security, greater attention must now be paid to adaptations to climatic change with a livelihood-centered approach of integrated natural resources and water management, which calls for increased diversification, improved land use and natural resource management interventions, increased use of renewable energy resources, improved risk management through early warning systems and crop insurance, and wastewater reuse for agriculture, among others.
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