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Electricity system based on 100% renewable energy for India and SAARC

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Abstract

The developing region of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is home to a large number of people living below the poverty line. In future, providing affordable , universally accessible, reliable, low to zero carbon electricity in this region will be the main aim. A cost optimal 100% renewable energy system is simulated for SAARC for the year 2030 on an hourly resolved basis. The region was divided into 16 sub-regions and three different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage direct current (HVDC) grid connections. The results obtained for a total system levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) showed a decrease from 71.6 €/MWh in a decentralized to 67.2 €/MWh for a centralized grid connected scenario. An additional scenario was simulated to show the benefits of integrating industrial gas production and seawater reverse osmosis desalination demand, and showed the system cost decreased by 5% and total electricity generation decreased by 1%. The results show that a 100% renewable energy system could be a reality in the SAARC region with the cost assumptions used in this research and it may be more cost competitive than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives. One of the limitations of this study is the cost of land for installation of renewables which is not included in the LCOE calculations, but regarded as a minor contribution.

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... Several studies have reported the technical feasibility and economic viability of 100% renewable energy systems for various parts of the world, e.g. Finland [26], Denmark [27], Australia [28], Israel [6], India [29,30], Pakistan [31], Southeast Asia [32], Nigeria [33], Sub-Saharan Africa [34], etc. According to Brown et al. [35], 100% renewable energy systems are already technically feasible and economically viable with decreasing costs every year. ...
... This study contributes to the various existing studies on the energy transition pathways for Bangladesh. However, it goes a few steps further by considering the multi-nodal approach with an hourly resolution for an entire transition year [29,30,42] in addition, to its broader power generation, storage and flexibility options including grid balancing among the regions. Further, it identifies the risks associated with future energy policies of the Government of Bangladesh, like energy security in this changing geo-political world, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and high electricity costs and the potential opportunities in embracing renewables. ...
... At present, geothermal energy does not play a critical role in Bangladesh. However, the model input consists future geothermal potential for all the seven sub-regions, which is calculated according to the method described in Ref. [30]. ...
... The region of South Asia is endowed with diverse, rich natural energy resources like coal, wind, thermal, water, gas, solar and geothermal, etc [11]. There is huge presence of natural resources that include estimated coal reserves of 133,237 million tons, hydropower potential of 296,431 MW, natural gas reserves of 85 Tcf (trillion cubic feet) and high renewable potential of solar (365,639 MW), and wind (378,594 MW) [11,12]. Despite the availability of rich energy resources in the region, many South Asian countries are fronting a severe shortage of electrical power with numerous blackouts [13]. ...
... Despite the availability of rich energy resources in the region, many South Asian countries are fronting a severe shortage of electrical power with numerous blackouts [13]. In this wake, the governments of South Asian nations are encouraged to expand renewable energy resources as the region is blessed to have rich and plentiful energy sources, [12,14,15]. The nations have commenced numerous steps and actions to appeal a sustainable energy mix, ultimately with some of these plans going sound. ...
... There have been multiple articles available in the literature highlighting the current status, and future prospects of energy sectors in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. Nevertheless, it is much needed to analyze the course of the countries towards the evolving policies to accomplish diverse energy mix. ...
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In the South Asian countries, including Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, the current energy scenario is considered non-sustainable due to diverse issues such as economic, environmental, geopolitical, technological options for energy exploitation, and negligible volume of regional energy trade. Though, within the region, India is leading a phase of energy transition and economic transformation through renewable energy development. The countries need to exhibit well in the development of their renewable sources following the rapid pace of renewable energies worldwide. This paper offers an overview of the energy scenario, growth of renewable energies, evolution, and approach for energy policy by highlighting key challenges and barriers for the ecological energy mix of the countries. Importantly, the paper assesses the current energy mix in South Asia, highlighting the anomaly of its fossil fuel-based future outlook, its ambitions to move towards less environmental pollution, and sustainable energy mix through a strategic tool SWOT analysis; strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT). In particular, this study examines the government policies to expand the implementation of renewable sources with an insight into the existing regulatory structure of the energy sector. The presented research findings suggest that to achieve the ambitious target to reduce emission discharge by up to 30% by the year 2030 under Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), the Governments of the three countries must take preemptive measures. It includes the stage-wise reduction of subsidies on fossil fuels, market integration within the region, and swift realization of the existing initiatives through strong political will, good governance, adoption of the latest technologies, and a pragmatic action plan, and energy cooperation across the region.
... Brown et al. [49] have developed and discussed criteria to address the feasibility of 100% renewable energy systems. Although several studies [6,9,[53][54][55] considering high shares of RE in Pakistan's energy system show renewables-based energy systems to be the most cost effective and optimal solution, studies on 100% renewable energy scenarios are still scarce [9,55,56]. Table 1 provides an overview of the studies with high or 100% share of renewable energy technologies in Pakistan. To the authors' knowledge, this work is the first of its kind to extensively model the transition of the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors towards a 100% RE-based system. ...
... Gulagi et al. [56] The LUT Energy System Model was used to model a 100% RE system for the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Corporation) region for four different scenarios. For Pakistan, the installed capacities for RE generation for a region-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario are 147 GW, 58 GW and 229 GW respectively. ...
... The potential estimation was based on Bunzel et al. [77]. The geothermal energy potential was calculated by Gulagi et al. [56] based on methods described in [78]. The different technologies integrated into the model can be categorised as: ...
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Pakistan is currently undertaking a substantial expansion of electricity generation capacity to provide electricity for all its end-users and to satisfy a fast-growing economy. Adoption of low-cost, abundant and clean renewable energy will not only fulfil its growing electricity , heat, transportation and desalinated water demand but also help achieve the goals set under the Paris Agreement. A technology-rich energy system model applied in hourly resolution has been used for investigating the transition in 5-year periods until 2050. This study demonstrates that a 100% renewable energy system across the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors is not only technically feasible but also economically viable. Solar pho-tovoltaics emerges as a key technology to generate electricity and contribute a share of 92% to the total primary energy demand across all sectors by 2050. The levelised cost of energy for a 100% renewable energy system is calculated as 56.1 €/MWh in 2050, lower than 70 €/MWh for the current fossil fuel-based system. A key feature of Pakistan's future energy system is the huge increase in demand across all energy sectors, particularly for desalinated water, which is almost 19% of the final energy demand. This share of energy for desalination is among the highest in the world. Direct and indirect electrification across all demand sectors increases the efficiency of the future energy system. Moreover, GHG emissions from all the sectors will drop to zero by 2050 in a fully sustainable energy scenario.
... Still, coal plays a significant role as a backup capacity, balancing the power system throughout a year [21]. Gulagi et al. (2017) explored 100% renewable energy transition pathways for India until 2050 using a set of alternative energy storage, generation, and few demand-side technologies to balance demand and supply. The authors found that energy storage plays a growing role in the system, but levelised systemwide costs of electricity can be potentially lower than the current level [22]. ...
... Gulagi et al. (2017) explored 100% renewable energy transition pathways for India until 2050 using a set of alternative energy storage, generation, and few demand-side technologies to balance demand and supply. The authors found that energy storage plays a growing role in the system, but levelised systemwide costs of electricity can be potentially lower than the current level [22]. The technical feasibility of 100% renewable energy for India is also concluded by Lawrenz et al. (2018), who considered heat and transportation sectors along with electric power, and further discussed potential social, economic, and political barriers of the energy transformation [23]. ...
... Geospatial complementarity of solar and wind energy with transmission can play a balancing role and mitigate seasonal variation in production, such as the monsoon effect [24,25]. The connection of distant regions with high-voltage power grids can provide additional balancing options, improve reliability, and reduce costs of multi-country power systems [22]. ...
Article
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This study evaluated a potential transition of India’s power sector to 100% wind and solar energy sources. Applying a macro-energy IDEEA (Indian Zero Carbon Energy Pathways) model to 32 regions and 114 locations of potential installation of wind energy and 60 locations of solar energy, we evaluated a 100% renewable power system in India as a concept. We considered 153 scenarios with varying sets of generating and balancing technologies to evaluate each intermittent energy source separately and their complementarity. Our analysis confirms the potential technical feasibility and long-term reliability of a 100% renewable system for India, even with solar and wind energy only. Such a dual energy source system can potentially deliver fivefold the annual demand of 2019. The robust, reliable supply can be achieved in the long term, as verified by 41 years of weather data. The required expansion of energy storage and the grid will depend on the wind and solar energy structure and the types of generating technologies. Solar energy mostly requires intraday balancing that can be achieved through storage or demand-side flexibility. Wind energy is more seasonal and spatially scattered, and benefits from the long-distance grid expansion for balancing. The complementarity of the two resources on a spatial scale reduces requirements for energy storage. The demand-side flexibility is the key in developing low-cost supply with minimum curtailments. This can be potentially achieved with the proposed two-level electricity market where electricity prices reflect variability of the supply. A modelled experiment with price signals demonstrates how balancing capacity depends on the price levels of guaranteed and flexible types of loads, and therefore, can be defined by the market.
... The decarbonization of transport is modeled in the context of a low-carbon energy system, recognizing that the electricity and hydrogen used in BEVs and FCVs must come from zero-carbon sources for the transport to have no associated carbon emissions. Previous examples of very low carbon energy scenarios for India are very few; here we use one example that excludes all coal and nuclear baseload generation but includes an hourly time step model of generation and demand [47][48][49]. This scenario uses data from the Internet of Energy modeling and visualization tool that is part of the Neo-Carbon Energy Project [50] and derives from the same research group and same methods as the previous papers by Gulagi et al. ...
... A more recent publication, [37], explores several scenarios to limit the growth in transport energy use and emissions through a modal shift to public transport and a transition to zero emission vehicles, but none of the scenarios achieve zero emissions. The scenarios presented in this paper do achieve zero carbon emissions by using a 100% renewable energy supply [48] but require a substantial increase in renewable energy supply to match the electricity used in BEV charging and in electrolysis to make hydrogen for FCVs. ...
... This results in greater store losses but the additional energy is not very significant in the scale of total energy used. The assumed roundtrip efficiency of stationary storage was 80%, typical of vanadium redox batteries and pumped hydro [62], and is lower than the value used in the original 100% renewable electricity scenario [48]. ...
Article
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By considering the weight penalty of batteries on payload and total vehicle weight, this paper shows that almost all forms of land-based transport may be served by battery electric vehicles (BEV) with acceptable cost and driving range. Only long-distance road freight is unsuitable for battery electrification. The paper models the future Indian electricity grid supplied entirely by low-carbon forms of generation to quantify the additional solar PV power required to supply energy for transport. Hydrogen produced by water electrolysis for use as a fuel for road freight provides an inter-seasonal energy store that accommodates variations in renewable energy supply. The advantages and disadvantages are considered of midday electric vehicle charging vs. overnight charging considering the temporal variations in supply of renewable energy and demand for transport services. There appears to be little to choose between these two options in terms of total system costs. The result is an energy scenario for decarbonized surface transport in India, based on renewable energy, that is possible, realistically achievable, and affordable in a time frame of year 2050.
... The team of Breyer showed in recent years that major regions in the world would benefit from a Super Grid ap-proach . Detailed studies have been carried out for Europe (Child et al., 2019;Breyer et al., 2016), Eurasia , MENA , Sub-Saharan Africa Barasa et al., 2018), SAARC (Gulagi et al., 2017a), Northeast Asia , Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim (Gulagi et al., 2017b), North America and South America . This comprehensive research has been carried out in three standard scenario designs: region-wide, country-wide and area-wide integration, which revealed an increasing economic energy system integration benefit from a sub-national level (region-wide) to a national level (country-wide) of about 7.2% in global average and a further cost reduction potential of 4.5% from the national level to a major region level (area-wide). ...
... To the knowledge of authors, it is the only existing research for a global energy interconnection based on 100% renewable electricity and it is carried out in full hourly resolution. The world is structured into 23 main regions, the resource assessment uses the methods of and the same technical and economic assumptions, whereas load assumptions and other assumptions can be found in more detail in the major research Bogdanov and Breyer, 2015;Barasa et al., 2018;Gulagi et al., 2017b;2017c;Barbosa et al., 2017). The scenario design uses the overnight approach and technical and financial assumptions for the year 2030. ...
... The role of storage is not much discussed in this paper, but detailed description can be found in Bogdanov and Breyer, 2015;Barasa et al., 2018;Gulagi et al., 2017b;2017c;Barbosa et al., 2017). Koskinen and Breyer (2016) provide insights on the role of storage in global and transcontinental energy system studies. ...
Article
The discussion about the benefits of a global energy interconnection is gaining momentum in recent years. The techno-economic benefits of this integration are broadly discussed for the major regions around the world. While there has not been substantial research on the techno-economic benefits, however, some initial results of the global energy interconnection are presented in this paper. Benefits achieved on the global scale are lower than the interconnections within the national and sub-national level. The world is divided into 9 major regions and the major regions comprise of 23 regions. When all the considered regions are interconnected globally, the overall estimated levelized cost of electricity is 52.5 €/MWh for year 2030 assumptions, which is 4% lower than an isolated global energy system. Further, the required installed capacities decrease by 4% for the fully interconnected system. Nevertheless, a more holistic view on the entire energy system will progress research on global energy interconnection as, synthetic power-to-X fuels and chemicals emerge as an important feature of the future sustainable global energy system with strong interactions of the power system not only to the supply, in energy fuel and chemicals trading globally, but also to the demand side. Global energy interconnection will be part of the solution to achieve the targets of the Paris Agreement and more research will help to better understand its impact and additional value.
... During 1994-1996 nation saw a steady growth in wind energy sector. Interest of private investors in wind energy sector of India dropped and there was a decline in wind energy growth during the end of the 20th century due to the new tax policies of Government (Sangroya and Kumar Nayak, 2015;Gulagi et al., 2017). MNRE, after its establishment in 2006 (History/Background and Minis, 2018), pushed the renewable energy development in country in a highly impressive manner and as a result, several wind energy projects were launched in windy states of the country and wind market grew in an exponential manner [ Fig. 2]. ...
... India by 2022, targets to achieve 175 GW of renewable energy (out of which 60 GW is the share of wind energy). It is estimated that renewable sources will provide 54% of the overall electrical energy production in India, by 2022 (Gulagi et al., 2017). National Institute of Wind Energy (NIWE) and Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) are two supporting pillars of wind energy development in India. ...
Article
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Harnessing the energy of the wind to obtain some useful work like grinding grains, pumping water and sailing boats has been there for a very long time. In modern times, wind energy is being used to generate electricity. Wind energy is one of the clean sources of energy and India has a huge potential for wind energy resources (102 GW at 80 m height and 302 GW at 100 m height). This vast potential has remained unexplored which can be achieved through well framed policies. This paper presents a detailed study of the fiscal incentives and development schemes offered by Indian government in expanding wind energy business. Wind energy policies of India have been keenly studied and obstacles to the success of these policies and programmes have also been discussed in this paper. The outcomes of this paper reiterate the work that has been conducted by Indian government (Central and State) in wind energy sector indicating lower renewable energy prices, improved financial incentives, opportunities in offshore wind energy and a steady market growth. Keywords: Wind energy, Indian market, Policies, Barriers
... scenarios with high levels of renewable energy penetration [13][14][15] . Such studies are usually based on capacity expansion and dispatch models that meet energy demand with investments in different energy sources. ...
... More details on the model are provided in the next sections.Our proprietary wind and solar PV data for the site locations was compared to publicly available wind and solar resource data for the same and different site locations in the three states from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 45,46 . In the absence of any publicly available multi-year wind resource data for India, previous studies[13][14][15] are based on a single year of national wind resource data published by NREL 45 . We ran our optimization model using these publicly available wind and solar resource data to determine the sensitivity of our results of levelized cost 21 to differing data sources for wind and solar PV power production. ...
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Unabated coal power in India must be phased out by mid-century to achieve global climate targets under the Paris Agreement. Here we estimate the costs of hybrid power plants - lithium-ion battery storage with wind and solar PV - to replace coal generation. We design least cost mixes of these technologies to supply stylized baseload and load-following generation profiles in three Indian states - Karnataka, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu. Our analysis shows that availability of low cost capital, solar PV capital costs of at least $250/kW, and battery storage capacity costs at least 50% cheaper than current levels will be required to phase out existing coal power plants. Phaseout by 2040 requires a 6% annual decline in the cost of hybrid systems over the next two decades. We find that replacing coal generation with hybrid systems 99% of the hours over multiple decades is roughly 40% cheaper than 100% replacement, indicating a key role for other low cost grid flexibility mechanisms to help hasten coal phaseout. Solar PV is more suited to pairing with short duration storage than wind power. Overall, our results describe the challenging technological and policy advances needed to achieve the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.
... Such large projects require large financial resources; hence, supporting the use of fossil fuels, which are deemed cheaper, faster and easier to construct. The comparison of capital costs for the construction of fossil fuel powered infrastructures as opposed to Renewable Energy ones shows that fossil fuel is far much cheaper on the immediate term (Foster et al., 2017), while yielding significantly lower returns as opposed to RE on the long term (Fashina et al., 2018;Guagi et al., 2017;IRENA, 2018b). Moreover, the fluctuating costs of Renewable Energy is deemed complex and stands as a risky investment. ...
Article
A rapid urbanisation rate, coupled with an increasing global population, equates to a surge in energy demand; threatening sustainable transitions from fossil fuel. However, faced with the impacts of climate change and increasing geopolitical accords, cities are turning towards Renewable Energy sources to meet this demand, but this is a complex matter in cities where land availability is scarce for the construction of new, or larger, power plants. This is accentuated in Megacities, where the urban fabric hosts an incredibly compact and dense population, where land unavailability extends to large surfaces. As the number of Megacities is expected to increase in the near future, the need for decentralised and sustainable solutions that are technically and economically viable for both the state and the private sector need to be sought. This paper dwells into an extensive review of literature studying energy generation in the case of Megacities, and highlight the dimensions required for them to achieve increased sustainability and resilience. A proposed model aimed at generating decentralised grid networks is proposed based on the study of urban complexity theories applicable to energy and urban morphology. This paper is aimed towards Urban and Energy Planners and Policy Makers looking at how to power Megacities as well as cities facing rapid urbanisation.
... Technical and Economic Optimization Quantitative Deterministic National [87] • Considering desalination energy demand in the transition to a 100 percent renewable system in South and Central America Technical and Economic Optimization Quantitative Deterministic Multi-National [60] • Studying the benefits of the integration of RO desalination energy demand in the transition to a 100 percent renewable energy system for India and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation Technical and Economic Optimization Quantitative Deterministic Multi-National [129] • Minimizing the cost and CO 2 emissions of an energy system including PV, wind turbine, hydrogen electrolyzer, battery, and hydrogen storage coupled with an RO desalination unit Economic and Environmental Heuristic optimization Quantitative Deterministic City [41] • Investigating the role of RO desalination demand in the transition to a 100 percent solar electricity system in Pakistan by 2050 ...
Article
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Desalination is becoming a practical option to meet water demand in an increasing number of locations that are facing water scarcity. Currently, more than 150 countries in the world are already using desalination technologies, which account for about one percent of the world’s drinking water. Although for specific regions, desalination is the only feasible solution to close the supply–demand gap (for example the production of desalinated seawater in the Middle East is predicted to rise almost fourteen-fold by 2040), the sustainability of desalination systems is still remarkably under question. This review aims first to investigate the technical and economic trends and environmental and social aspects of desalination systems and then, in the second stage, to give an overview of the role of renewable energy technologies in the sustainability of the future water systems with an increasing share of desalination.
... In equation (4), E t is the electricity generated in year t, C is the project's capacity in MW and Flh is its full-load hours. We assume constant, region-specific full-load hours, which can be found in ref. 45 . For bids that did not indicate the project's location in India, we assume a capacity factor of 20% and thus full-load hours of Flh = 1,752 h. ...
Article
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Developing and emerging economies are implementing local content requirements to spur domestic manufacturing, though their costs and benefits are not well understood and difficult to quantify. Here, we provide an empirical assessment of the short-term costs of local content requirements using a credible counterfactual. We analyse data on government-run solar photovoltaic auctions held in India between 2014 and 2017 and exploit the fact that not all of the auctioned contracts entailed local content requirements. We find that local content requirement policies resulted in a ~6% per kWh increase in the cost of solar photovoltaic power generated from those projects when compared to similar projects not subject to the same local content requirement policy. During this three-year time period, Indian solar panels remained around 14% more expensive than international panels. We found some evidence of short-term increases in domestic manufacturing capacity, yet during this short period Indian firms did not increase market share or break into export markets.
... In all three cases PV solar is the major source of energy providing 81% of electricity to Vietnam and 88% for Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. This increase takes place despite a significant increase in electricity consumption resulting from electrification of end use sectors (Manish Ram, Smitri Bogdanov, Arman Aghahosseini, & Ayobami Solomon Oyewo, 2017; Similarly, for South Asia, a more recent modelling exercise confirms that a 100% renewable energy system is possible with regional grid interconnection at a lower total system levelised cost of electricity (LCOE), when compared to a scenario where each individual country attempts to make such a transition individually (Gulagi, Choudhary, Bogdanov, & Breyer, 2017). ...
... Other studies explicitly estimate the relationship between long-run economic value (including integration costs) of VRE penetration levels (17, 18) but do not include VRE investment costs in their analysis. Few prior studies explore the impacts of high VRE penetration on India's electricity system, and those that do either use the capacity expansion framework and do not evaluate the economic value of multiple VRE targets (4,19,20) or do not optimize capacity build around proposed VRE targets (21). ...
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Significance This study examines electricity and carbon mitigation costs associated with achieving aggressive renewable energy targets in India’s electricity grid in 2030. We find that wind-majority or balanced wind–solar targets have the lowest carbon mitigation costs, which invites revisiting India’s proposed solar-majority targets. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, achieving high renewable energy targets will not avert the need to build new fossil fuel power plants. However, building significant numbers of wind and solar plants (600 GW) will reduce how often fossil fuel power plants must run, holding India’s 2030 electricity emissions at its 2018 level at costs comparable to a fossil fuel-dominated grid. As costs decrease, battery storage can cost-effectively avert the need for new fossil fuel power plants.
... No country can be able to promote and sustain its development in the absence of the proper use of energy. Any energy imbalance regarding demand and supply can jeopardize the functioning of a nation, mostly in developing countries [2]. As civilization progresses from modern to ultramodern, the world's energy demand is rising [3], which is the primary cause of global energy issues and is assumed to increase by about five times by 2100 [4]. ...
Article
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Global fossil fuel reserves are declining due to differential uses, especially for power generation. Everybody can help to do their bit for the environment by using solar energy. Geographically , Bangladesh is a potential zone for harnessing solar energy. In March 2021, the renewable generation capacity in Bangladesh amounted to 722.592 MW, including 67.6% from solar, 31.84% from hydro, and 0.55% from other energy sources, including wind, biogas, and biomass, where 488.662 MW of power originated from over 6 million installed solar power systems. Concurrently, over 42% of rural people still suffer from a lack of electricity, where solar energy can play a vital role. This paper highlights the present status of various forms of solar energy progress in Bangladesh, such as solar parks, solar rooftops, solar irrigation, solar charging stations, solar home systems, solar-powered telecoms, solar street lights, and solar drinking water, which can be viable alternative sources of energy. This review will help decision-makers and investors realize Bangladesh's up-to-date solar energy scenario and plan better for the development of a sustainable society.
... On the other hand, according to Röben and Köhler [25], a 100% RE scenario is feasible and more efficient than the current energy system, while Lawrenz et al. [26] conclude that it is technically possible to supply energy for the power, heat and transportation sector entirely by renewables. According to Gulagi et al. [27], a 100% RE-based system is technically and economically feasible on an hourly resolution [19,27,28] and also for countries in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation [29], with the cost structure less than the current system based on fossil fuels. According to these studies, a fully renewable electricity system for India will be based mainly on solar photovoltaic (PV) complemented by other RE technologies. ...
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Various assessments have shown abundant renewable energy potential for India, especially solar. For a fully sustainable power system, monsoon presents an obstacle with the resultant decrease in solar resource availability. In this study, India is subdivided into 10 regions and these regions are interconnected via power lines. A 100% RE transition pathway in hourly resolution, till 2050 is simulated. The results from this study clearly indicate that the power system can overcome the monsoon hurdle by solar-wind complementarity and grid utilization. Wind energy output increases in regions thathave the best wind conditions with 62% of the total wind energy generated in monsoon. Solar PV and grids can manage the unavailability of wind resourcesin some of the regions. There is a clear indication that imports increase during the monsoon period. The least affected regions such as India-Northwest can transmit PV electricity to other regions via transmission grids. In the monsoon period,grid utilization increases by 1.3% from the non-monsoon period to satisfy the respective demand. The two major exporters of electricity,India Northwest and India South export about 43% of electricity in the monsoon period. These results clearly indicate that no fossil based balancing is required in the monsoon period.
... Studies in the literature also suggested that installing the FPV system equivalent to the capacity of HEPP will reduce the pressure on power turbines through intermittent operation in order to meet the energy demand (Cazzaniga et al. 2019). Further, the integration of FPV with HEPP will be advantageous due to the availability of grid connectivity and their high efficiency in comparison with standalone PV systems (Gulagi et al. 2017). In addition, the amount of water saved by the FPV covering system through preventing evaporation is also directed to generate hydroelectricity. ...
Article
The emerging floating photovoltaic (FPV) technology is the recent global attention in solar power production due to its high efficiency. Apart from the standalone FPV systems, hybridising the FPV system with the hydroelectric power plants (HEPP) will aid in increasing the power generation from HEPP by reducing the water loss through evaporation. In this study, the power generation and water-saving capacity of a model FPV system with various tilt angles, orientation and tracking mechanisms are analysed by covering 30% of the total area of Vaigai reservoir in India. The study shows that the proposed FPV plant with capacity of 1.14 MW generates 1.9 GWh of energy at its optimum tilt angle while saving 42,731.56 m 3 of water annually. Further, cost analysis and carbon footprint estimation are also carried out. The results show that the FPV system will have a positive impact on the environment by saving 44,734.62 tons of CO 2. ARTICLE HISTORY
... -Need for reduction of demand-supply gap of electricity through solar energy systems. 32 2017 ...
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About 70% of India's current energy mix comprises of coal, and the increase in generation from renewable (RE) sources is affecting the health of the power system. We investigated this effect through the lens of asset utilisation, cost and the social disruption caused by accelerating RE into the Indian Power System. Our review-driven analysis revealed that increasing RE generation is pushing the coal plants to operate in low-loading conditions, causing heightened wear and tear of the plant as they are not suitable for flexible operation. The novel analysis of social disruption due to market parity between RE and coal-based generation presented a holistic view of the political economy of Indian Power System. We found that transition from coal to RE may have extended socio-political ramifications that can potentially disrupt the national economy at an unprecedented scale. Policy implications outlined by our study for the draft Electricity (Amendment) Bill 2020 include scoping a socio-technical framework which supports just energy transition through better financial support mechanisms for flexible operation of coal plants. Focusing on clean-up over the shutdown of coal plants and facilitating investments in battery storage technologies and cross-border electricity trade as RE and conventional fuel reach market parity.
... The potentials for biomass and waste resources were obtained from Bunzel et al. [24] and further classified into the categories of solid wastes, solid residues and biogas. Geothermal energy potential is estimated according to the method described in Gulagi et al. [25] across Europe. More details on renewable resources for Europe can be found in Child et al. [20]. ...
Chapter
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This chapter presents a technically feasible and economically viable energy pathway for Europe, in which the energy sector (comprised of power, heat, transport, and desalination) reaches 100% renewable energy and zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The research highlights the transition of the transport sector, which is currently dependent on fossil fuels to a great extent, towards being driven by 100% renewables. The transport sector achieves zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, mainly through direct and indirect electrification in the form of synthetic fuels, such as hydrogen and Fischer-Tropsch fuels. The methods are comprised of the derivation of the transportation demand, which is converted into final energy demand for direct electrification along with production of hydrogen, methane and Fischer-Tropsch fuels. The power-to-gas (H2, CH4) and power-to-liquids (Fischer-Tropsch fuels) value chains are applied for the total energy demand, which is fulfilled entirely by renewables in 2050. The primary energy demand for the transport sector decreases from 21,000 TWh in 2015 to around 20,000 TWh by 2050, driven by massive gains in energy efficiency with a high level of direct and indirect electrification of more than 85% in 2050. While, the final energy demand for transport decreases from 7000 TWh/a in 2015 to 5000 TWh/a, despite the assumed growth of passenger and freight transportation, mainly driven by the massive electrification of road transport. Solar PV and wind energy emerge as the most prominent energy supply sources with around 62% and 32%, respectively, of the total electricity supply by 2050. Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with around 83% of total electricity storage output. Fuel conversion technologies such as water electrolysis, methanation, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, and others, supply renewable-based fuels along with sustainably produced biofuels and electrification to ensure a 100% renewable energy-based transport sector across Europe. The levelised cost of energy for a fully sustainable energy system across Europe remains stable in the range of €50–60/MWh through the transition from 2015 to 2050. The final annualised energy costs for transport remain around 300–450 b€ per year through the transition period, with a massive reduction for road transport, while increases for marine and aviation transport by 2050 are projected. Greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced from about 4200 megatonnes CO2 equivalent (MtCO2eq) in 2015 in the entire energy system to zero by 2050, with cumulative GHG emissions of around 85 gigatonnes CO2 equivalent (GtCO2eq). While, GHG emissions in the transport sector can be reduced from about 1900 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, this could be further accelerated with ambitious policies and targets across Europe. Consequently, a 100% renewable energy system across the transport sector in Europe is far more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil fuel-based option, and most importantly compatible with the Paris Agreement.
... Several pieces of research investigated 100% or near-100% renewable energy systems from national perspectives. Such investigation includes energy system analysis of Australia [11,12], Barbados [13], Belgium [14], Brazil [15][16][17][18], Canada [17], China [19], Colombia [20], Costa Rica [17], Croatia [21], Denmark [22][23][24][25][26], Finland [26,27], France [28], Germany [29][30][31], Great Britain [32], Iceland [26], India and the SAARC region [33,34], Iran [35], Ireland [36,37], Italy [38], Japan [39], Macedonia [40], New Zealand [41], Nicaragua [42], Nigeria [43], Norway [17,26], Pakistan [44], Paraguay [5,18], Portugal [45], Saudi Arabia [46], Seychelles [47], Tokelau [48], Turkey [49], Ukraine [50], the United Kingdom [51][52][53], the United States [54][55][56], and Uruguay [18]. Other than these national studies, there are many other 100% renewable system studies larger than national energy systems covering the World [55,[57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64], North-East Asia [65], the ASEAN region [66], Europe and its neighbors [67], Europe [68][69][70][71][72], South-East Europe [73], and the Americas [74]. ...
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The ambitious energy target to achieve climate-neutrality in the European Union (EU) energy system raises the feasibility question of using only renewables across all energy sectors. As one of the EU’s leading industrialized countries, Germany has adopted several climate-action plans for the realistic implementation and maximum utilization of renewable energies in its energy system. The literature review shows a clear gap in comprehensive techniques describing an open modeling approach for analyzing fully renewable and sector-coupled energy systems. This paper outlines a method for analyzing the 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled energy system’s feasibility in Germany. Based on the open energy modeling framework, an hourly optimization tool ‘OSeEM-DE’ is developed to investigate the German energy system. The model results show that a 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled system for electricity and building heat is feasible in Germany. The investment capacities and component costs depend on the parametric variations of the developed scenarios. The annual investment costs vary between 17.6 and 26.6 bn €/yr for volatile generators and between 23.7 and 28.8 bn €/yr for heat generators. The model suggests an investment of a minimum of 2.7–3.9 bn €/yr for electricity and heat storage. Comparison of OSeEM-DE results with recent studies validates the percentage-wise energy mix composition and the calculated Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) values from the model. Sensitivity analyses indicate that storage and grid expansion maximize the system’s flexibility and decrease the investment cost. The study concludes by showing how the tool can analyze different energy systems in the EU context.
... The LUT Energy System Transition Model is developed to assess various possible techno-economic energy transition pathways on global, national, and regional levels. The model has been previously used to study the transition of the global 46,47 , regional [70][71][72] and national 45,73,74 power and energy systems. The specific characteristics of individual countries or regions are captured with corresponding model input parameters and assumptions. ...
Article
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Recent events like heatwaves and abnormal rainfall are a glimpse of the devastating effects of human induced climate change. No country is immune to its effects, but a developing country like India is particularly vulnerable. This research, for the individual states of India, explores the technical feasibility and economic viability of a renewable transition pathway for the power sector. Based on the assumptions of this study, we show that a renewables-based power system by 2050 is lower in cost than the current coal dominated system, has zero greenhouse gas emissions and provides reliable electricity to around 1.7 billion people. Electricity generation will be based on solar PV, wind energy, and hydropower, while batteries and multi-fuel reciprocating internal combustion engines based on synthetic fuels provide the required flexibility to the power system. This transition would address multiple imperatives: affordability, accessibility, and sustainability without compromising economic growth.
... In most regions and countries around the world, low-cost solar PV, as highlighted in Figure 7, will dominate energy systems. By 2050, the highest generation share of solar PV among regions is in SAARC [83] with more than 95% in its cost optimal generation mix, whereas sub-Saharan Africa [69] utilises 82% of all electricity generation from single-axis tracking solar PV in its cost optimal generation mix. Meanwhile, only Iceland is dominated by hydropower in 2050 due to limited hydropower potential in other regions [84]. ...
Article
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Climate change threats and the necessity to achieve global Sustainable Development Goals demand unprecedented economic and social shifts around the world, including a fundamental transformation of the global energy system. An energy transition is underway in most regions, predominantly in the power sector. This research highlights the technical feasibility and economic viability of 100% renewable energy systems including the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors. It presents a technology-rich, multi-sectoral, multi-regional and cost-optimal global energy transition pathway for 145 regional energy systems sectionalised into nine major regions of the world. This 1.5°C target compatible scenario with rapid direct and indirect electrification via Power-to-X processes and massive defossilisation indicates substantial benefits: 50% energy savings, universal access to fresh water and low-cost energy supply. It also provides an energy transition pathway that could lead from the current fossil-based system to an affordable, efficient, sustainable and secure energy future for the world.
... The major advantages of the hybrid HEPP-FPV configuration are the prevention of water loss due to evaporation, the available grid connectivity and high efficiency in comparison with land-based PV systems [59]. In addition, this integration aids the intermittent operation of the HEPP in regions with good solar-radiation levels [60]. ...
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Floating photovoltaic (FPV) systems are one of the globally emerging technologies of renewable energy production that tend to balance the water–energy demand by effectively saving the evaporated water from reservoirs while generating electrical power. This study presents the performance analysis of a model FPV plant in an Indian reservoir. The Mettur dam reservoir located in Tamil Nadu, India with a hydroelectric power plant of 150-MW capacity is considered as a test case. The preliminary design of the FPV plant is proposed based on a detailed study of the key design elements and their suitability for Indian reservoirs. The proposed plant is numerically analysed for various tilt angles, mounting systems and tracking mechanisms in order to assess its potential power generation. A flat-mount system in landscape orientation was found to exhibit a high performance ratio. Further, a fixed-tilt FPV system with a panel slope of 10° and an FPV system with single-axis tracking were found to be suitable for the Mettur reservoir. Further, cost analysis of the FPV system is also presented along with the carbon-footprint estimation to establish the economic and environmental benefits of the system. The results show that the total potential CO2 saving by a FPV system with tracking is 135 918.87 t CO2 and it is 12.5% higher than that of a fixed-mount FPV system.
... With European [50,51], American [52] and global models [14,53] analyzing different transition pathways and their effect on the aggregated cost of the system. Additionally, the scope of these models have expanded to other regions, like China [54] and India [49,55], as well as to other sectors of the energy system in multi-sectoral models [33]. The latter is of high importance, as most previous studies only target the power sector, omitting significant effects due to sector-coupling. ...
Article
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This paper uses numerical techno-economic modelling to analyse the effect of current national renewable targets and climate goals on the cost and structural composition of the Mexican energy system. For this, we construct a scenario base analysis to compare current policies with two alternative states of the world—one without climate policies and one attaining full decarbonization. Furthermore, an additional iterative routine allows us to estimate the cost-optimal share of renewable technologies in the energy sector and the effect that deviating from this share has on total discounted system costs, emissions and the structure of the energy mix. In general, model results exhibit three key insights—(1) A marked dependence of the energy system on photovoltaics and natural gas; (2) The 2050 cost-optimal share of renewables for the production of electricity, transportation and industrial heating is respectively 75%, 90% and 5%; and (3) As national renewable targets for the power sector are lower than the cost-optimal share of renewables, equivalent to the shares in an scenario without climate policies and completely disconnected from national climate goals, these should be modified.
... The main advantages of the hybrid HEPP-FPV systems are the available grid connectivity, battery storage, and high efficiency compared to standalone PV systems (Gulagi et al. 2017). In addition, this integration of renewable power technologies aids in the intermittent operation of HEPP (Farfan and Breyer 2018). ...
Article
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Floating photovoltaic system for reservoirs is a recent innovative technology that is highly advantageous in reducing evaporation while generating solar power. In addition, the integration of floating photovoltaic systems with the existing hydroelectric power plants will increase renewable power production. The present study aims to assess the electrical performance of floating photovoltaic systems in major reservoirs with existing hydroelectric power plants in India. The reservoirs with large water surface area were selected for the study, and a model floating photovoltaic system with a 5-MW capacity was designed for the selected reservoirs. The numerical analysis showed that installing floating photovoltaic systems will result in an annual energy yield of 160 GWh. Further, the systems also save 1.40 million cubic meters of water per day and also help in generating additional energy of 514.80 MWh/day from the saved water through its integration with hydroelectric power plants. A single-axis tracking mechanism to the floating photovoltaic systems will increase the annual energy generation by 11%. The detailed cost analysis and carbon emission analysis were also carried out. The results indicate that the tracking mechanisms increase the total installation cost of the systems. The annual carbon emission reduction from the floating photovoltaic systems accounts for about 3.30 million tons of CO 2 . The obtained results highlight the suitability of this innovative technology for installation in Indian reservoirs and its effectiveness in reducing evaporation and carbon emission. Graphic abstract
... In addition, they indicated that the super grid decreases the storage requirements and generations capacities, resulting in the cost reductions. Many similar studies reported the similar results for many super grids such as Middle East and North Africa (MENA) super grid [4], Eurasian super grid [5], North-East Asian super grid [6]), European super grid [7], and SAARC super grid [8]. All of the above studies reported that the renewable energy based super grid is more cost effective and feasible compared with the conventional grids. ...
Article
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One-fourth population of the world lives in South Asia. The electricity generation for this population consumes the substantial fossil fuels, resulting in the significant emissions of harmful gases in the global environment. To protect the natural environment, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has planned a super smart grid (SSG) for the power sharing between South Asian countries through the integration of the renewable energy resources (RERs). However, the capability of these countries to construct such a mega power grid is unclear due to the unavailability of proper strategic analysis, lack of information about RERs potential, and the lack of decision making models. To address such issues, this paper analyzes the existing power grids in the SAARC countries focusing on the formation of a mega power grid. Then, the paper identifies the existing electricity potential of these countries based on the key renewable and non-renewable resources. Then, this paper develops an integer linear programming model based on the power generation cost, CO2 emissions, and disruption risk. This study solves the proposed model through the implementation of goal programming methods in an efficient mathematical optimization software (i.e. LINGO). The results exhibited that the SAARC countries have the capability to share a sustainable SSG through the substantial integration of RERs. For instance, the model solution based on 100% renewable power (i.e. Case 5) exhibited 36% cost savings, 86% CO2 emission reduction, and 39% risk reduction compared with non-renewable power based model solution (i.e. Case 1). Finally, this study performs the cost-benefit analysis for the existing and proposed power systems of SAARC countries. The results provide the various insights to policy makers and practitioners for the strategic decision making related to the SAARC SSG. In addition, the methodology of this paper can be adopted for other SSGs infrastructures around the world.
... This value is presumed to be able to optimise using a respective optimisation algorithm for the energy system. The overall dominance of solar PV in the electricity generation is a characteristic of the South Asian region, as this is also found in a research covering the entire region [92,93]. ...
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Low-lying coastal areas and archipelago countries are particularly threatened by the impacts of climate change. Concurrently, many island states still rely on extensive use of imported fossil fuels, above all diesel for electricity generation, in addition to hydrocarbon-based fuels to supply aviation and marine transportation. Land area is usually scarce and conventional renewable energy solutions cannot be deployed in a sufficient way. This research highlights the possibility of floating offshore technologies being able to fulfil the task of replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy solutions in challenging topographical areas. On the case of the Maldives, floating offshore solar photovoltaics, wave power and offshore wind are modelled on a full hourly resolution in two different scenarios to deal with the need of transportation fuels: By importing the necessary, carbon neutral synthetic e-fuels from the world market, or by setting up local production capacities for e-fuels. Presented results show that a fully renewable energy system is technically feasible in 2030 with a relative cost per final energy of 120.3 €/MWh and 132.1 €/MWh, respectively, for the two scenarios in comparison to 105.7 €/MWh of the reference scenario in 2017. By 2050, cost per final energy can be reduced to 77.6 €/MWh and 92.6 €/MWh, respectively. It is concluded that floating solar photovoltaics and wave energy converters will play an important role in defossilisation of islands and countries with restricted land area.
... When compared with the amount of research for the developed countries, there is a stark difference, with most research in the last decades focussed on developed countries and regions [10]. However, acknowledging this fact the LUT Energy System Transition Model has been applied for many developing countries such as Bangladesh [31], India [32], Pakistan [33], Nepal and Bhutan [34] along with SAARC [35], the Philippines [36], Indonesia [37], and Southeast Asia [38], further countries in Africa such as Cameroon [39], Ethiopia [40], Ghana [41], Nigeria [42], West Africa [43], and sub-Saharan Africa [44,45]. Further, North Africa and Middle East [46] and Morocco [47], Algeria [47], Jordan [48] and Iran [49], as well as the South American countries of Bolivia [50] and Chile [51] and South America [52] have been explored. ...
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This is a discussion and response to “Global 100% energy transition by 2050: A fiction in developing economies?” authored by Anthony Afful-Dadzie and published in Joule 5 (2021) 1634–1643. The preview has raised concerns around the feasibility of energy transitions towards 100% renewable energy and sustainable technologies in developing economies, after examining the article Bogdanov et al. (2021) in Afful-Dadzie (2021). Although, the author has rightly pointed out the disparity in the recent growth of renewable energy across the developed and developing countries of the world, along with highlighting a pertinent issue of ‘availability of finance’ for energy transitions across developing countries, the preview fails to contextualise the issue of financing energy transitions, in particular across developing countries, and has trivialised complex and cumbersome cost optimal energy transition modelling with vague and unscientific illustrations. In response, the authors of Bogdanov et al. (2021) have contextualised, clarified and confuted the issues raised in Afful-Dadzie (2021).
... There have been several studies concerning continental sized interconnected systems [8][9][10][11][12][13], where the main challenges are introduced and categorised as follows: control systems from both security and reliability perspectives, network complexity and power grid congestion. On the other hand, the benefits of electrical grid interconnections are substantial [7,12,[14][15][16][17][18], such as pooling of electricity generation and load, lowering of generation costs, opening and expanding the electricity market and reducing the need for baseload generation. All these beneficial aspects provide incentives to investigate further the regional and continental grid interconnections all around the world. ...
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The Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement, as the two biggest climate action initiatives, address the need to shift towards a fully sustainable energy system. The deployment of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, decreases carbon dioxide emissions, but presents issues of resource intermittency. In this study, a cost-optimised 100% renewable energy based system is analysed and quantified for the Americas for the reference year 2030 using high spatially and temporally resolved weather data. Several scenarios have been applied, from a decentralised power system towards a fully centralised and interconnected system, taking into account a mix of renewable energy, energy storage and transmission networks. This research aims to evaluate the benefits of an interconnected energy system for the Americas. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) is between 48.8 and 59.0 €/MWh depending on the chosen scenario. The results show that the LCOE and total annualised cost drop by 14% and 15%, respectively, in a centralised power system. The optimised utilisation of transmission grids leads to less energy storage requirement. Sector coupling brings further benefits by reducing additional 4% of LCOE, where electricity demand for power, seawater desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors have been supplied. A comparison between the interconnected Americas and North and South America individually shows a reduction of 1.6% and 4.0% for the total annual system cost and LCOE. Although the cost of the energy system decreased due to wide grid interconnection, substantial benefits have not been achieved as reported earlier for a Pan-American energy system. A scenario with synthetic natural gas (SNG) trading through a liquefied natural gas value chain has also been presented. The results suggest that local SNG production cost in the assumed consumption centre is almost the same as the cost of imported SNG.
... The increment of global energy demand is due to the continuous population growth, and the economy steeping up, which affected the socio-economic landscape and human welfare in the a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 future [1]. The renewable energy and fossil fuel are incorporated as future energy systems that control and conserve the fossil fuel used which had been discovered for future continuity demands. ...
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Adsorption technology has led to the development of promising techniques to purify biogas, i.e., biomethane or biohydrogen. Such techniques mainly depend on the adsorbent ability and operating parameters. This research focused on adsorption technology for upgrading biogas technique by developing a novel adsorbent. The commercial coconut shell activated carbon (CAC) and two types of gases (H2S/N2 and H2S/N2/CO2) were used. CAC was modified by copper sulfate (CuSO4), zinc acetate (ZnAc2), potassium hydroxide (KOH), potassium iodide (KI), and sodium carbonate (Na2CO3) on their surface to increase the selectivity of H2S removal. Commercial H2S adsorbents were soaked in 7 wt.% of impregnated solution for 30 min before drying at 120°C for 24 h. The synthesized adsorbent’s physical and chemical properties, including surface morphology, porosity, and structures, were characterized by SEM-EDX, FTIR, XRD, TGA, and BET analyses. For real applications, the modified adsorbents were used in a real-time 0.85 L single-column adsorber unit. The operating parameters for the H2S adsorption in the adsorber unit varied in L/D ratio (0.5–2.5) and feed flow rate (1.5–5.5 L/min) where, also equivalent with a gas hourly space velocity, GHSV (212.4–780.0 hour⁻¹) used. The performances of H2S adsorption were then compared with those of the best adsorbent that can be used for further investigation. Characterization results revealed that the impregnated solution homogeneously covered the adsorbent surface, morphology, and properties (i.e., crystallinity and surface area). BET analysis further shows that the modified adsorbents surface area decreased by up to 96%. Hence, ZnAc2–CAC clarify as the best adsorption capacity ranging within 1.3–1.7 mg H2S/g, whereby the studied extended to adsorption-desorption cycle.
... Moreover, this comprehensive electricity systems approach allows for the identification of technologies characterized by high financing costs and investment barriers, and should therefore be at the center of attention of national energy policymaking. Most model-based assessments that consider the whole electricity system do not consider variations in financing costs explicitly [38][39][40][41]. One exemption is the application of the numerical electricity market model EMMA to evaluate the impact of capital costs and carbon prices on the deployment of RES-E and other low-carbon technologies [24]. ...
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Background Morocco is facing major challenges in terms of its future energy supply and demand. Specifically, the country is confronted with rising electricity demand, which in turn will lead to higher fossil fuel import dependency and carbon emissions. Recognizing these challenges, Morocco has set ambitious targets for the deployment of renewable energy sources for electricity generation (RES-E). The realization of these targets will lead to a fundamental transition of the Moroccan electricity sector and requires substantial public and private investment. However, different risks constitute barriers for private RES-E investments and lead to high financing costs, which may eventually discourage capital-intensive RES-E projects. Methodology While the existing literature has mainly focused on assessing the impact of financing costs on the economic competitiveness of individual technologies, the aim of this research is to assess the techno-economic feasibility of different electricity generation portfolios. To recognize the social dimension of the sustainable energy system transition, the electricity scenarios for Morocco have been jointly developed with stakeholders in a scenario building workshop in Rabat, employing a downscaled version of the open source electricity market model renpassG!S, augmented by a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) module. Results In the stakeholder workshop, four different electricity scenarios for Morocco were co-developed. Each of these scenarios describes a consensual and technologically feasible future development path for the Moroccan energy system up to 2050, and comprises conventional fossil fuel-based technologies, as well as RES-E technologies in varying shares. Employing the downscaled renpassG!S model, we find that total system costs, as well as average levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced substantially with low-cost financing. Conclusions Our results indicate that de-risking RES-E investments can lead to cost competitiveness of a 100% RES-E-based electricity system with mixed-technology scenarios at marked financing costs. Therefore, we identify specific de-risking recommendations for Moroccan energy policymaking. In addition, we argue that participatory scenario modeling enables a better understanding of the risk perceptions of stakeholders, and can eventually contribute to increasing the political feasibility of sustainable energy transition pathways.
... The success of decentralized energy systems as a means of access to energy is more noticeable in the rural areas of developing countries [16]. Recent studies have shown that from 2030 and beyond, many countries intend to achieve power systems based on 100% renewable energy [17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25]. As the most developed economy in SSA, South Africa will achieve this by initiating the provision of energy access to its non-electrified segment of the population via decentralized renewable energy. ...
Article
Approximately 1.5 million South African households (~ 16 million total) are still relying on paraffin, fuel wood, candle, and coal for their daily quota of energy. Although coal-based power generation is apparently easier for coal-rich South Africa, an increasing share of large-scale renewable energy (solar and wind) is mandated due to environmental concerns. In this work, prospect of two distributed renewable resources (farm manure and solar radiation) for a decentralized renewable energy (DRE) program targeting quality energy access for a non-electrified population, was investigated based on ground-level assessments. The potential demands of electrical and thermal energy were assessed and compared to the anticipated decentralized generation of biogas and solar photovoltaic power for all nine provinces of South Africa. In all provinces, except Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, farm manure could support the thermal energy requirements for cooking and water and space heating of non-electrified households. Further, farm manure could support the combined thermal and electrical loads of Western Cape and Free State. Similarly, decentralized solar photovoltaic power can support electrical loads in all provinces. A well-planned DRE program integrated with the development of indigenous technologies and local enterprises would benefit the economically and socially vulnerable households of South Africa, apart from fulfilling the additional energy demand and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Keywords: Non-electrified households; decentralized renewable energy; South Africa; energy access; household energy; informal dwelling
... The results of this study are in line with the studies presented in Table 1, comparing capacity mix, cost of generation and GHG emissions. According to Gulagi et al. [54], in the power sector, solar PV and batteries have the largest share in installed capacity mix in 2030 due to their expected cost decline and related assumption. This trend can also be compared with countries in the South Asian region [74], [92], [93] where solar PV and batteries form a least cost hybrid power system solution to enable the renewable energy transition. ...
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The Himalayan countries Nepal and Bhutan have been confronted with similar climate change and energy emergencies for quite a long time. Its influence is felt as a barrier in financial, social, infrastructural, and political development. Despite having an enormous amount of renewable energy sources, these countries are unable to fulfil their current energy demand. While the power sector is entirely dependent on hydropower, other sectors depend on fossil fuel imports from India. This study offers a pathway for energy independency, energy for all and transition towards a 100% renewables based energy system. The modelling of the energy sector is done using the LUT Energy System Transition model for a period from 2015 to 2050 in a 5-year time step. This study covers the main energy sectors: power, heat, and transport. Two scenarios are visualised, one considering greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and the associated mitigation cost and another without these costs, though both scenarios aim at achieving a high share of renewable energy by 2050. A substantial drop in levelised cost of energy is observed for the scenario without GHG emission cost, however, taxing GHG emissions will accelerate the energy transition with the levelised cost of energy on a similar level. It is well possible to transition from 90 €/MWh in 2015 to 49 €/MWh by 2050 for the entire energy system by utilizing indigenous low-cost renewable energy. Solar photovoltaics and hydropower will play a dominant role in 2050, having a share of 67% and 31% respectively. Consequently, this leads to zero GHG emissions. An energy transition towards a sustainable and secure energy system for all by 2050 is well possible in Nepal and Bhutan only through 100% renewable sources and it is both technically and economically feasible despite having substantial limitations in infrastructure and economic development currently.
Technical Report
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Personal input to the review of the European Investment Bank Climate and Energy Framework. It replies to requests for input on [1] additional dimensions to include in the long-term strategy, [2] strategical areas where the EIB could improve and [3] where the EIB should focus its support on in terms of energy investments and technology. The input consists of: [1] An argumentation to consider open-source and ambitious technologically-based research on feasibility of 100 % renewables and decarbonisation, shortcomings of carbon pricing and carbon markets (EU ETS) as a sole tool to tackle decarbonisation and argumentation to take into account cross-border flows (both material and energy) in a solid methodological framework. [2] A summary and contribution for input by Bjarne Steffen from ETH on private vs. multilateral bank investment flows related to climate and energy projects, and the importance of EIB's role in convincing local governments to opt for low-carbon technologies and building capacity. [3] A collected bibliography to consider recent research on 100 % renewables and Global Grid studies and academic articles and NGO reports on the functioning and shortcomings of the EU ETS System. Further information: - Background and timeline of consultation process: https://www.eib.org/en/about/partners/cso/consultations/item/public-consultation-energy-lending-policy.htm [output and conclusions expected in the third quarter of 2019] - Overview of all consultation contributions: * List : https://www.eib.org/en/about/partners/cso/consultations/item/public-consultation-energy-lending-policy.htm * Zip-file of contributions: - Personal collection of EIB Consultation documents : https://floriandierickx.github.io/eib-consultation/eib/index.html - Personal collection of Climate Finance research and reports : https://floriandierickx.github.io/eib-consultation/cc-cb/index.html - Personal collection of 100 % renewables research : https://floriandierickx.github.io/library/renewables/index.html - Personal collection on EU ETS functioning : https://floriandierickx.github.io/library/eu-ets/index.html
Preprint
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The ambitious energy target to achieve climate-neutrality in the European Union (EU) energy system raises the question of the feasibility of using only renewables across all energy sectors. Germany, as one of the leading industrialized countries of the EU, has adopted several climate action plans for the realistic implementation and maximum utilization of renewable energies in its future energy system. The literature review shows a clear gap in comprehensive techniques describing an open modeling approach for analyzing fully renewable and sector-coupled energy systems. This paper outlines an open modeling technique for analyzing the feasibility of the 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled energy system in Germany. It identifies the capacities and investment costs for different components and briefly evaluates the flexibility aspects of the system in terms of transmission grid expansion, energy storage, and dispatchable loads. Based on the open energy modeling framework (Oemof), an hourly optimization tool 'OSeEM-DE' is developed to investigate the German energy system. The model results show that a 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled system for electricity and building heat is feasible in Germany under different conditions. The investment capacities and component costs depend on the parametric variations of the developed scenarios. According to the model results, the annual investment costs vary between 17.6 – 26.6 bn €/yr for the volatile generators, and between 23.7 – 28.8 bn €/yr for the heat generators. Besides, the model suggests an investment of a minimum of 2.7 – 3.9 bn €/yr for electricity and heat storage. A comparison of the OSeEM-DE results with Fraunhofer ISE study reports shows that the percentage-wise energy mix composition and the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) from the model are within the plausible ranges. Finally, sensitivity analyses indicate that storage expansion and optimum grid extension between Northern and Southern Germany can maximize the provision of flexibility to the system and decrease the overall investment cost.
Chapter
This overview on the future global energy system is based on the fundamental requirements of the Paris Agreement, the Sustainable Development Goals of United Nations, and the concept of sustainability guardrails. Scenarios of major international institutions are presented and compared to the introduced constraints concluding that higher levels of ambitions are required. The scientific field of 100% renewable energy system research has strongly developed in the 2010s so that the advantage of entirely renewable energy systems can be shown, in a global-local resolution. The major technologies for the future energy system are identified and main remaining research gaps are listed so that the existing energy transition pathways can be further improved. The combination of integrated assessment models and energy system models are expected to be valuable for a new level of insights in the 2020s. Research on pathways toward 350 ppm CO2 atmospheric concentration, equal to 1.0°C temperature increase above the preindustrial age, may stimulate discussion toward a real rebalancing with sustainability limits of our planet Earth in the 2020s.
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Renewable energies will play a significant role in transitioning towards sustainable energy system in order to match the goal under the Paris Agreement. However, to achieve this goal, it will be necessary to find the best country pathway, with global repercussions. This study reveals that an energy system based on 100% renewable resources in Chile would be technically feasible and even more cost-efficient than the current system. The Chilean energy system transition would imply a high level of direct and indirect electrification across all sectors. Simulation results using the LUT Energy System Transition model comprising 108 technology components show that the primary electricity demand would rise from 31 TWh to 231 TWh by 2050, which represents about 78% of the total primary energy demand. The remaining 22% would be composed of renewable heat and bioenergy fuels. Renewable electricity will mainly come from solar PV and wind energy technologies. Solar PV and wind energy installed capacities across all sectors would increase from 1.1 GW and 0.8 GW in 2015 to 43.6 GW and 24.8 GW by 2050, respectively. In consequence, the levelized cost of energy will reduce by about 25%. Moreover, the Chilean energy system in 2050 would emit zero greenhouse gases. Additionally, Chile would become a country free of energy imports.
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Research attention on decentralized autonomous energy systems has increased exponentially in the past three decades, as demonstrated by the absolute number of publications and the share of these studies in the corpus of energy system modelling literature. This paper shows the status quo and future modelling needs for research on local autonomous energy systems. A total of 359 studies are roughly investigated, of which a subset of 123 in detail. The studies are assessed with respect to the characteristics of their methodology and applications, in order to derive common trends and insights. Most case studies apply to middle-income countries and only focus on the supply of electricity in the residential sector. Furthermore, many of the studies are comparable regarding objectives and applied methods. Local energy autonomy is associated with high costs, leading to levelized costs of electricity of 0.41 $/kWh on average. By analysing the studies, many improvements for future studies could be identified: the studies lack an analysis of the impact of autonomous energy systems on surrounding energy systems. In addition, the robust design of autonomous energy systems requires higher time resolutions and extreme conditions. Future research should also develop methodologies to consider local stakeholders and their preferences for energy systems.
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Research attention on decentralized autonomous energy systems has increased exponentially in the past three decades, as demonstrated by the absolute number of publications and the share of these studies in the corpus of energy system modelling literature. This paper shows the status quo and future modelling needs for research on local autonomous energy systems. A total of 359 studies are investigated, of which a subset of 123 in detail. The studies are assessed with respect to the characteristics of their methodology and applications, in order to derive common trends and insights. Most case studies apply to middle-income countries and only focus on the supply of electricity in the residential sector. Furthermore, many of the studies are comparable regarding objectives and applied methods. Local energy autonomy is associated with high costs, leading to levelized costs of electricity of 0.41 $/kWh on average. By analysing the studies, many improvements for future studies could be identified: the studies lack an analysis of the impact of autonomous energy systems on surrounding energy systems. In addition, the robust design of autonomous energy systems requires higher time resolutions and extreme conditions. Future research should also develop methodologies to consider local stakeholders and their preferences for energy systems.
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Catering to the growing demand for urban mobility and emphasis on reducing air pollution in towns and cities are mutually conflicting objectives. One solution is a paradigm shift of the transportation policies from personal vehicles to public transportation system using electric buses. Using electric bus fleets for public transportation is not straightforward in Indian cities for two reasons, viz., weak electricity grid and predominantly coal‐based power generation. In this work, a novel transportation system, that uses solar PV generation and large capacity batteries, is analyzed for its impact on air pollution and environmental sustainability. A detailed well to wheel analysis of the system, for various power generation scenarios, is presented and also compared with the existing ones. The analysis done in this work answers the question: "Can the electric bus‐based public transportation contribute towards emission reduction in transportation?" The results also elaborate that to reach the target under the Paris Protocol, India has to take drastic majors like phasing out of coal by 2030. To phase out Coal, India has to reduce its contribution by 5% each year from now and use renewable energy sources extensively. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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To date, roadmaps and policies for transitioning from fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy have been developed for nations, provinces, states, cities, and towns in order to address air pollution, global warming, and energy insecurity. However, neither roadmaps nor policies have been developed for large metropolitan areas (aggregations of towns and cities), including megacities (metropolitan areas with populations above 10 million). This study bridges that gap by developing roadmaps to transition 74 metropolitan areas worldwide, including 30 megacities, to 100% wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) energy and storage for all energy sectors by no later than 2050, with at least 80% by 2030. Among all metropolitan areas examined, the full transition may reduce 2050 annual energy costs by 61.1% (from $2.2 to $0.86 trillion/yr in 2013 USD) and social costs (energy plus air pollution plus climate costs) by 89.6% (from $8.3 to $0.86 trillion/yr). The large energy cost reduction is due to the 57.1% lower end-used energy requirements and the 9% lower cost per unit energy with WWS. The air pollution cost reduction of ~$2.6 (1.5–4.6) trillion/yr is due mostly to the saving of 408,000 (322,000–506,000) lives/yr with WWS. Global climate cost savings due to WWS are ~$3.5 (2.0–7.5) trillion/yr (2013 USD). The transition may also create ~1.4 million more long-term, full-time jobs than lost. Thus, moving to 100% clean, renewable energy and storage for all purposes in metropolitan areas can result in significant economic, health, climate, and job benefits.
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Considering the current ecological situation in the modern world, the quality of life depends not so much on a stable energy supply as on an environmentally friendly way of producing and consuming energy, which has turned social and research attention to the opportunities of renewable energy systems (RES). In spite of the vital necessity of transitioning to environmentally friendly energy production, the implementation and development of renewable energy technologies face a range of barriers: socio-cultural, technological, economic, institutional and environmental. To overcome these barriers, the authors of this article use the systems approach to gain deeper understanding of RES interconnection and interdependence. They apply STEEP analysis for classification and qualitative analysis of RES development barriers in Russia. The article proposes the analytical methodology, which reveals system specifications of the national RES development barriers and predicts the chain reaction of overcoming particular barriers. Using this methodology, the authors identify the main socio-cultural roots of RES development barriers in Russia: state control of the development of the energy sector, the political stake in hydrocarbons and the lack of consistent policies on RES development. The authors’ suggested analysis methodology is appropriate for identifying the root problems in energy socio-economic systems and for effective decision-making process in the energy sector.
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One of the biggest concerns of the present century is energy security and climate change. Further, studies suggest that there would be a huge lack of fossil fuels in near future. Moreover, in terms of cleaner production, the most popular and practiced way of power generation is renewable energy sources which are intermittent in nature, require large land area, and also dependent on geographic positions and climatic conditions. Besides, nuclear energy is also having some limitations including government policies and public apprehensions. To overcome these hurdles, these two carbon-free technologies can be integrated and form a nuclear-renewable hybrid energy system (N-R-HES). Literature related to the proposed systems is extremely rare and the systems are not yet well developed. Keeping that into concern, this paper discusses the operation, status, prospects, and benefits of N-R-HES. Various possible integration techniques along with their operation are discussed in detail. Moreover, six aspects of interconnections are identified: electrical, thermal, chemical, mechanical, hydrogen, and information. The paper also discusses the reactor licensing, permitting procedures along the different benefits of N-R-HES. Additionally, research limitations and needs are identified for further exploration of the topic throughout the paper.
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Installing multi-terawatt capacities of renewable technologies, mainly wind and solar, could be a potential solution for reducing carbon emissions to reach a safe climate threshold. However, due to variabilities in solar and wind generation, energy storage will play an essential role in the decarbonization of the electrical grid. We examined the implications of adding wind and solar on a terawatt-scale in India's electricity mix and estimated the storage (energy and power capacity) requirements by balancing hourly supply and demand for a 30-year-long-period starting from 2019 until 2048. We used meteorological reanalysis data from MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Application) for hourly wind speed and solar irradiance for the simulation. The results indicated that a solar-dominated capacity mix needed small seasonal storage and required larger storage power capacity to support ‘boost’ charging during the few high sunny hours to meet the demand for many non-sunny hours. Wind-dominated generation depended on large seasonal storage – most charging occurs during monsoon months (July through September) – and discharging in autumn to early winters. The paper discusses the performance of different terawatt scale designs and concludes with their implications for India's energy transition.
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India is the third largest CO2 emitter worldwide, and its electricity demand, which is primarily supplied by coal-fired generation, is expected to increase almost threefold over the next twenty years. Here we simulate 40 scenarios for the 2040 Indian electricity sector, considering uncertainty in future natural gas prices and costs for batteries and variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, under different CO2 emissions limits and renewable portfolio standard (RPS) targets. We find a large-scale expansion of VRE, particularly, solar PV, in most scenarios. Furthermore, energy storage competes with natural gas and coal to provide flexibility to integrate VRE. Given a set of technology assumptions, policies that explicitly limit CO2 emissions are more cost-effective at reducing emissions than RPS policies. The former are also more effective at reducing air pollution than RPS policies by explicitly penalizing CO2 emissions, thereby reducing coal generation more substantially than RPS policies.
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In the past wind energy is harnessed for attaining some valuable work like grains grinding, water pumping, and even boat sailing over a long-time. However, times have been changed from conventional utilization of wind energy to electricity generation in modern days. Wind energy is believed to be one of the purest kinds of renewable energy. India's wind energy resource potential is estimated to be 102 GW at 80m and 302 GW at 100m of hub height. The immense potential of wind energy which has been kept uninvestigated can be accomplished through fair framed policies. The present paper focused on a comprehensive analysis of the Indian government planning to expand its wind energy business by offering financial incentives and development policies. In this paper, Indian wind energy policies have been intensely analyzed and various barriers to achieving the success of these schemes and programs have been discussed. The summary of the present paper is to reiterate the work carried on the wind energy sector in terms of enhanced fiscal incentives, minimized energy pricing, offshore wind farm prospects, and market growth stability by the Indian government (both central and state).
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The paper explores options for a 2050 carbon free energy future for India. Onshore wind and solar sources are projected as the dominant primary contributions to this objective. The analysis envisages an important role for so-called green hydrogen produced by electrolysis fueled by these carbon free energy sources. This hydrogen source can be used to accommodate for the intrinsic variability of wind and solar complementing opportunities for storage of power by batteries and pumped hydro. The green source of hydrogen can be used also to supplant current industrial uses of grey hydrogen produced in the Indian context largely from natural gas with important related emissions of CO2. The paper explores further options for use of green hydrogen to lower emissions from otherwise difficult to abate sectors of both industry and transport. The analysis is applied to identify the least cost options to meet India’s zero carbon future.
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Globally, more than 740 million people live on islands which are often seen as ideal environments for the development of renewable energy systems. Hereby, they play the role to demonstrate technical solutions as well as political transition pathways of energy systems to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The growing number of articles on 100% renewable energy systems on islands is analyzed with a focus on technical solutions for transition pathways. Since the first “100% renewable energy systems on islands”-article in a scientific journal in 2004, 97 articles handling 100% renewable energy systems on small islands were published and are reviewed in this article. In addition, a review on 100% renewable energy systems on bigger island states is added. Results underline that solar PV as well as wind are the main technologies regarding 100% RES on islands. Not only for the use of biomass but for all RES area limitation on islands needs to be taken more seriously, based on full energy system studies and respective area demand. Furthermore, it is shown that there is still not the same common sense in the design approach including and starting at the energy needs as well as on multi-sectoral approach. The consideration of maritime transport, aviation, cooling demands, and water systems beyond seawater desalination is only poorly considered in existing studies. Future research should also focus on developing pathways to transform the existing conventional infrastructure stepwise into a fully renewable system regarding also the interconnections with the mainland and neighboring islands. This article is categorized under: Policy and Economics > Green Economics and Financing Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy Energy Systems Analysis > Economics and Policy Energy Systems Analysis > Systems and Infrastructure. © 2022 The Authors. WIREs Energy and Environment published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.
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Approximately 1.5 million South African households (~16 million total) are still relying on paraffin, fuel wood, candle, and coal for their daily quota of energy. Although coal-based power generation is apparently easier for coal-rich South Africa, an increasing share of large-scale renewable energy (solar and wind) is mandated due to environmental concerns. In this work, prospect of two distributed renewable resources (farm manure and solar radiation) for a decentralized renewable energy (DRE) program targeting quality energy access for a non-electrified population, was investigated based on ground-level assessments. The potential demands of electrical and thermal energy were assessed and compared to the anticipated decentralized generation of biogas and solar photovoltaic power for all nine provinces of South Africa. In all provinces, except Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, farm manure could support the thermal energy requirements for cooking and water and space heating of non-electrified households. Further, farm manure could support the combined thermal and electrical loads of Western Cape and Free State. Similarly, decentralized solar photovoltaic power can support electrical loads in all provinces. A well-planned DRE program integrated with the development of indigenous technologies and local enterprises would benefit the economically and socially vulnerable households of South Africa, apart from fulfilling the additional energy demand and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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Local urban planning has become concerned over clean energy technologies development on greenfield land that may lead to competition in land use. Solar photovoltaic systems on agriculture land is an indicative example of this disputed strategy. At the same time closed landfills and their post-closure management pose environmental, economic and land value concerns at the local authorities. In the present work we analyse the concept of solar photovoltaic system installation in closed landfills. This practice has already received attention and the present article provides an overview of existing installations as well as assessment of the existing potential. Moreover, it introduces a methodology that geoanalyses closed sites, evaluates them in a hierarchical manner and suggests the appropriate PV technology for each site. The methodology has been applied in Hungary and revealed that 450 MWp of solar could be deployed in Hungarian closed landfills. EU-level projections provide estimations for the potential to range around 13 GWp. Such an approach may become a forefront instrument in the local, bottom-up sustainability policy planning.
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With its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves, India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions. Here, we assess proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future emissions and energy production in the country. As of mid-2016, 243 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generating capacity are under development in India, including 65 GW under construction and an additional 178 GW proposed. These under-development plants would increase the coal capacity of India's power sector by 123% and, when combined with the country's goal to produce at least 40% of its power from non-fossil sources by 2030, exceed the country's projected future electricity demand. The current proposals for new coal-fired plants could therefore either “strand” fossil energy assets (i.e. force them to retire early or else operate at very low capacity factors) and/or ensure that the goal is not met by “locking-out” new, low-carbon energy infrastructure. Similarly, future emissions from the proposed coal plants would also exceed the country's climate commitment to reduce its energy intensity 33 to 35% by 2030, which—when combined with the commitments of all other countries—is itself not yet ambitious enough to meet the international goal of holding warming well below 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era.
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In depth analysis of EU 28 energy pathways and resulting fossil fuel resource requirements (import/export)
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Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) can benefit public health and the climate by displacing emissions from fossil-fuelled electrical generating units (EGUs). Benefits can vary substantially by EE/RE installation type and location, due to differing electricity generation or savings by location, characteristics of the electrical grid and displaced power plants, along with population patterns. However, previous studies have not formally examined how these dimensions individually and jointly contribute to variability in benefits across locations or EE/RE types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a high-resolution model to simulate and compare the monetized public health and climate benefits of four different illustrative EE/RE installation types in six different locations within the Mid-Atlantic and Lower Great Lakes of the United States. Annual benefits using central estimates for all pathways ranged from US5.7-US210 million (US14-US170 MWh 1), emphasizing the importance of site-specific information in accurately estimating public health and climate benefits of EE/RE efforts.
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To properly evaluate the prospects for commercially competitive battery electric vehicles (BEV) one must have accurate information on current and predicted cost of battery packs. The literature reveals that costs are coming down, but with large uncertainties on past, current and future costs of the dominating Li-ion technology. This paper presents an original systematic review, analysing over 80 different estimates reported 2007-2014 to systematically trace the costs of Li-ion battery packs for BEV manufacturers. We show that industry-wide cost estimates declined by approximately 14% annually between 2007 and 2014, from above US$1,000 per kWh to around US$410 per kWh, and that the cost of battery packs used by market-leading BEV manufacturers are even lower, at US$300 per kWh, and has declined by 8% annually. Learning rate, the cost reduction following a cumulative doubling of production, is found to be between 6 and 9%, in line with earlier studies on vehicle battery technology. We reveal that the costs of Li-ion battery packs continue to decline and that the costs among market leaders are much lower than previously reported. This has significant implications for the assumptions used when modelling future energy and transport systems and permits an optimistic outlook for BEVs contributing to low-carbon transport.
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The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub-regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1–9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term. The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-term to long-term for the global energy supply.
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Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
Conference Paper
In this work, a 100% renewable energy (RE)-based energy system for the year 2030 for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim 1 , and Eurasia was prepared and evaluated and various impacts of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES) were researched on an hourly resolution for one year. To overcome the intermittency of RE sources and guarantee regular supply of electricity, energy sources are complemented by five energy storage options: batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), thermal energy storage (TES), (A-CAES) and power-togas (PtG). In a region-wide scenario the energy system integration is within a sub-region of the individual large areas of Southeast Asia and Eurasia. In this scenario simulation were performed with and without A-CAES integration. For Southeast Asia and Eurasia, the integration of A-CAES has an impact on the share of a particular storage used and this depends on the seasonal variation in RE generation, the supply share of wind energy and demand in the individual areas. For the region-wide scenario for Southeast Asia (region with low seasonal variation and lower supply share of wind energy) the share of A-CAES output was 1.9% in comparison to Eurasia (region with high seasonal variation and a high supply share of wind energy) which had 28.6%. The other impact which was observed was the distribution of the storage technologies after A-CAES integration, since battery output and PtG output were decreased by 72.9% and 21.6% (Eurasia) and 5.5% and 1.6% (Southeast Asia), respectively. However, a large scale grid integration reduces the demand for A-CAES storage drastically and partly even to zero due to substitution by grids, which has been only observed for A-CAES, but not for batteries and PtG. The most valuable application for A-CAES seems to be in rather decentralized or nationwide energy system designs and as a well-adapted storage for the typical generation profiles of wind energy.
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This study demonstrates how seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plants, necessary to meet increasing future global water demand, can be powered solely through renewable energy. Hybrid PV–wind–battery and power-to-gas (PtG) power plants allow for optimal utilisation of the installed desalination capacity, resulting in water production costs competitive with that of existing fossil fuel powered SWRO plants. In this paper, we provide a global estimate of the water production cost for the 2030 desalination demand with renewable electricity generation costs for 2030 for an optimised local system configuration based on an hourly temporal and 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to about 2374 million m3/day. The levelised cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.59 €/m3–2.81 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The global system required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to cost 9790 billion € of initial investments. It is possible to overcome the water supply limitations in a sustainable and financially competitive way.
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In order to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system, an hourly resolved model has been created based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constrains. The model is comprised of five scenarios for 100% renewable energy power systems in North-East Asia with different high voltage direct current transmission grid development levels, including industrial gas demand and additional energy security. Renewables can supply enough energy to cover the estimated electricity and gas demands of the area in the year 2030 and deliver more than 2000 TW hth of heat on a cost competitive level of 84 €/MW hel for electricity. Further, this can be accomplished for a synthetic natural gas price at the 2013 Japanese liquefied natural gas import price level and at no additional generation costs for the available heat. The total area system cost could reach 69.4 €/MW hel, if only the electricity sector is taken into account. In this system about 20% of the energy is exchanged between the 13 regions, reflecting a rather decentralized character which is supplied 27% by stored energy. The major storage technologies are batteries for daily storage and power-to-gas for seasonal storage. Prosumers are likely to play a significant role due to favourable economics. A highly resilient energy system with very high energy security standards would increase the electricity cost by 23% to 85.6 €/MW hel. The results clearly show that a 100% renewable energy based system is feasible and lower in cost than nuclear energy and fossil carbon capture and storage alternatives.
Book
Presenting boundary conditions for the economic and environmental utilization of geothermal technology, this is the first book to provide basic knowledge on the topic in such detail. The editor is the coordinator of the European Geothermic Research Initiative, while the authors are experts for the various geological situations in Europe with high temperature reservoirs in shallow and deep horizons. With its perspectives for R&D in geothermic technology concluding each chapter, this ready reference will be of great value to scientists and decision-makers in research and politics, as well as those giving courses in petroleum engineering, for example.
Conference Paper
Photovoltaics (PV) is expected to become one of the cheapest forms of electricity generation during the next decades. The Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of PV has already reached grid parity with retail electricity in many markets and is approaching wholesale parity in some countries. In this paper, it is estimated that the PV LCOE in main European markets is going to decrease from 2015 to 2030 by about 45% and to 2050 by about 60%. The LCOE for utility-scale PV in Europe will be about 25-45 €/MWh in 2030 and about 15-30 €/MWh in 2050 depending on the location. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the most important parameter together with the annual irradiation in the calculation of the PV LCOE. The uncertainty in capital and operational expenditure (CAPEX and OPEX) is relatively less important while the system lifetime and degradation have only a minor effect. The work for this paper has been carried out under the framework of the EU PV Technology Platform.
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This paper provides a comprehensive, updated picture of energy subsidies at the global and regional levels. It focuses on the broad notion of post-tax energy subsidies, which arise when consumer prices are below supply costs plus a tax to reflect environmental damage and an additional tax applied to all consumption goods to raise government revenues. Post-tax energy subsidies are dramatically higher than previously estimated, and are projected to remain high. These subsidies primarily reflect under-pricing from a domestic (rather than global) perspective, so even unilateral price reform is in countries’ own interests. The potential fiscal, environmental and welfare impacts of energy subsidy reform are substantial.
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One of the main reasons attributed to the slow uptake of grid-connected residential PV (photovoltaic) systems, is the lack of information about the near-term economic benefits which are as important as long-term viability for residential customers. This paper presents a comparative assessment of the near-term economic benefits of grid-connected residential PV systems. Case studies from the UK and India are taken as examples, as they vary significantly in solar resource, customer demands, electricity prices and financial support mechanisms. A metric termed PEUC (prosumer electricity unit cost) is proposed to develop art economic evaluation methodology to assess the near-term benefits from PV systems: The results obtained showed that, under the present financial support mechanisms, domestic PV systems provide near-term economic benefits in most locations in India. For most locations in the UK, cost reduction is needed to achieve near-term financial benefits and this varies depending on the location of installation. The results presented demonstrate the importance of location specific system planning and demand-generation matching through optimal sizing of the PV system and demand side management.
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Net-metering is commonly known as a practice by which owners of distributed generation (DG) units may offset their electricity consumption from the grid with local generation. The increasing number of prosumers (consumers that both produce and consume electricity) with solar photovoltaic (PV) generation combined with net-metering results in reduced incomes for many network utilities worldwide. Consequently, this pushes utilities to increase charges per kW h in order to recover costs. For non-PV owners, this could result into inequality issues due to the fact that also non-PV owners have to pay higher chargers for their electricity consumed to make up for netted costs of PV-owners. In order to provide insight in those inequality issues caused by net-metering, this study presents the effects on cross-subsidies, cost recovery and policy objectives evolving from different applied netmetering and tariff designs for a residential consumer. Eventually this paper provides recommendations regarding tariffs and metering that will result in more explicit incentives for PV, instead of the current implicit incentives which are present to PV owners due to net-metering.
Conference Paper
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. An updated grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for 215 countries/ islands and a total of 645 market segments all over the world. High PV industry growth rates have enabled a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events have already occurred. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of up to 96% of total global electricity market till 2030. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Conference Paper
People in rural regions of various developing countries suffer on having no access to modern forms of energy, in particular electricity. This work is focussed on regions inhabited by these people and presents insights on the short financial amortization periods of solar home systems and photovoltaic pico systems. With amortization periods of about 6 to 18 months, pico systems represent a capitalized value of about 10 to 45 times the original capital expenditures at the point of full financial amortization. For a significantly higher electricity demand hybrid PV mini-grids might be an excellent solution for rural electrification. However the economics are still a challenge. Based on excellent economics of small PV applications the total global residential small PV market potential is estimated to about 8 GWp and 80 bn€. The total PV-based off-grid market potential for the not yet electrified people might be estimated to about 70 GW and roughly 750 bn€.
Conference Paper
Diesel generators contribute to a large share of power generation in developing countries like Peru, the Philippines and Tanzania. This leads to high costs for electricity and causes harmful air pollution. In contrast to that renewable energies can provide affordable and environmentally sound power. This paper indicates that a potential of at least 500 MW is available for upgrading isolated diesel grids to hybrid grids. A geographic analysis is developed in order to localize isolated diesel grids. Furthermore, detected diesel grids are analyzed in terms of installed capacity, operators and purpose of supply. The methodology presented in this paper enables to reveal the huge potential that retrofitting isolated diesel grids provides for the introduction of renewable energies.
Article
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given, and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for more than 150 countries and a total of 305 market segments all over the world, representing 98.0% of world population and 99.7% of global gross domestic product. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events occur right now. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of about 75–90% of total global electricity market. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Article
This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
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An estimation of the Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential for the Iberian Peninsula is presented in this work. As a first step, the temperature at different depths (from 3500 m to 9500 m, in 1000 m steps) has been estimated from existing heat flow, temperature at 1000 m and temperature at 2000 m depth data. From the obtained temperature-at-depth data, an evaluation of the available heat stored for each 1 km thick layer between 3 and 10 km depth, under some limiting hypotheses, has been made. Results are presented as the net electrical power that could be installed, considering that the available thermal energy stored is extracted during a 30 year project life. The results are presented globally for the Iberian Peninsula and separately for Portugal (continental Portugal), Spain (continental Spain plus the Balearic Islands) and for each one of the administrative regions included in the study. Nearly 6% of the surface of the Iberian Peninsula, at a depth of 3500 m has a temperature higher than 150 °C. This surface increases to more than 50% at 5500 m depth, and more than 90% at 7500 m depth. The Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential in the Iberian Peninsula, up to a 10 km depth (3 km–10 km) and for temperatures above 150 °C, expressed as potential installed electrical power, is as high as 700 GWe, which is more than 5 times today's total electricity capacity installed in the Iberian Peninsula (renewable, conventional thermal and nuclear).
Article
In this work an estimation and comparison of the technical and sustainable potentials of EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) in Europe is presented. The temperatures at depths of (3500–9500) m were firstly calculated from the available data of temperatures at surface, 1000 m and 2000 m depth, and heat flow. Next the available thermal energy stored in each 1000 m thick layer along the considered depths was evaluated. At this point, the EGS technical potential was estimated and results are presented as installable net electrical power by considering a 30 year time project. A method to estimate the EGS sustainable potential is proposed and the results are compared with the technical potential. Results are presented for the European territory as a whole and individually for each one of the European countries. Estimations for Turkey and the Caucasus region are also presented. Under the hypotheses considered in our study, the technical potential of EGS in Europe for temperatures above 150 °C and depths of between 3 km and 10 km was estimated to be more than 6500 GWe. The part of this technical potential that can be considered as ‘sustainable’ or ‘renewable’ potential was estimated to be 35 GWe.
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Discussions about the origin of energy in a post fossil fuel world are quickly dominated by a general exchange of mostly fruitless arguments about the future contribution of nuclear energy. In this paper we discuss the status of nuclear energy today and analyze its potential evolution during the next 10-20 years. The facts are that nuclear energy contributes only about 14% of the world's electric energy mix today, and as electric energy contributes itself only about 16% to the end energy use, its contribution is essentially negligible. Still, nuclear energy is plagued already with a long list of unsolved problems. Among the less known problems one finds the difficulties that nuclear plants can not provide power according to needs, but have to be operated at full power also during times of low demand. As a result, regions with large contributions from nuclear power need some backup hydropower storage systems. Without sufficient storage capacity, cheap electric energy is suggested during low demand times, which obviously results in wasteful applications. The better known problems, without solutions since at least 40 years, are the final safe storage of the accumulated highly radioactive nuclear waste, that uranium itself is a very limited and non renewable energy resource and that enormous amounts of human resources, urgently needed to find a still unknown path towards a low energy future, are blocked by useless research on fusion energy. Thus, nuclear energy is not a solution to our energy worries but part of the problem.
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In this report, we estimate the state-by-state per-capita “solar electric footprint” for the United States, defined as the land area required to supply all end-use electricity from solar photovoltaics (PV). We find that the overall average solar electric footprint is about 181 m2 per person in a base case scenario, with a state- and scenario-dependant range from about 50 to over 450 m2 per person. Two key factors that influence the magnitude of the state-level solar electric footprint include how industrial energy is allocated (based on location of use vs. where goods are consumed) and the assumed distribution of PV configurations (flat rooftop vs. fixed tilt vs. tracking). We also compare the solar electric footprint to a number of other land uses. For example, we find that the base case solar electric footprint is equal to less than 2% of the land dedicated to cropland and grazing in the United States, and less than the current amount of land used for corn ethanol production.
Article
Each stage in the life cycle of coal-extraction, transport, processing, and combustion-generates a waste stream and carries multiple hazards for health and the environment. These costs are external to the coal industry and are thus often considered "externalities." We estimate that the life cycle effects of coal and the waste stream generated are costing the U.S. public a third to over one-half of a trillion dollars annually. Many of these so-called externalities are, moreover, cumulative. Accounting for the damages conservatively doubles to triples the price of electricity from coal per kWh generated, making wind, solar, and other forms of nonfossil fuel power generation, along with investments in efficiency and electricity conservation methods, economically competitive. We focus on Appalachia, though coal is mined in other regions of the United States and is burned throughout the world.
Article
The Energy [R]evolution 2008 scenario is an update of the Energy [R]evolution scenario published in 2007. It takes up recent trends in global socio-economic developments, and analyses to which extent they affect chances for achieving global climate protection targets. The main target is to reduce global CO2 emissions to 10 Gt per year in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 °C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A review of sector and region specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding energy supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The Energy [R]evolution scenario shows that renewable energy can provide more than half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO2 emissions, whilst at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%.