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Thirty years of assessing the impacts of climate change on outdoor recreation and tourism in Canada
Abstract
This paper reviews 30 peer-reviewed academic journals articles (1986–2016) that assess the impacts of climate change on outdoor recreation and tourism in Canada. The review follows a sector-based approach, covering the various activities that have been assessed within a Canadian context. In general, climate change is expected to present increased risks for cold-weather activities in Canada, while there may be increased opportunities for warm-weather activities. A series of knowledge gaps are identified and recommendations for future research in the field are made. Emphasis is placed on overcoming limitations associated with reliance on out-dated climate science, climate models and climate change scenarios; addressing the uneven geographic distribution of existing assessments and filling the gap regarding regions that are currently underrepresented; as well as exploring the weather sensitivity and potential climate change impacts for outdoor recreation and tourism activities that have not yet been assessed.
... A previous review found that both geographic context and recreational activities were important for understanding weather impacts on nature-based tourism globally [10]. In that spirit, we focused this review on a single country and analyzed results separately based on the recreational activity studied, similar to Hewer and Gough [11]. In their review, Hewer and Gough summarized 30 years of research of the effects of climate change on outdoor recreation and tourism in Canada, by sector. ...
... Although this review focused on the United States, many of the same general trends have been found in other countries (e.g., warmer temperatures being preferred by visitors, up to a threshold) [11]. Review papers from Canada and Austria also noted that increasing temperatures were projected to increase park visitation and create an extended season to participate in warm-weather activities [11,118]. ...
... Although this review focused on the United States, many of the same general trends have been found in other countries (e.g., warmer temperatures being preferred by visitors, up to a threshold) [11]. Review papers from Canada and Austria also noted that increasing temperatures were projected to increase park visitation and create an extended season to participate in warm-weather activities [11,118]. Research from other counties is also uniform in that findings indicate climate change will decrease the season length and participation in snow-dependent activities [11,[119][120][121][122]. ...
Weather, climate, and climate change all effect outdoor recreation and tourism, and will continue to cause a multitude of effects as the climate warms. We conduct a systematic literature review to better understand how weather, climate, and climate change affect outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism across the United States. We specifically explore how the effects differ by recreational activity, and how visitors and supply-side tourism operators perceive these effects and risks. The 82 papers reviewed show the complex ways in which weather, climate, and climate change may affect outdoor recreation, with common themes being an extended season to participate in warm-weather activities, a shorter season to participate in snow-dependent activities, and larger negative effects to activities that depend on somewhat consistent precipitation levels (e.g., snow-based recreation, water-based recreation, fishing). Nature-based tourists perceive a variety of climate change effects on tourism, and some recreationists have already changed their behavior as a result of climate change. Nature-based tourism suppliers are already noticing a wide variety of climate change effects, including shifts in seasonality of specific activities and visitation overall. Collectively, this review provides insights into our current understanding of climate change and outdoor recreation and opportunities for future research.
... The contribution of participation in outdoor recreation to the development of proenvironmental behaviors and the fact that being in nature exposes participants to the effects of ACC make this group valuable (Galway 2019;Dunlap and Heffernan 1975;Theodori et al. 1998;Teisl and O'Brien 2003). The critical effects of ACC on recreational activities also make this group important (Finger and Lehmann 2012;Hewer and Gough 2018;Askew and Bowker 2018;O'Toole et al. 2019;Poudyal 2015). At the national level, studies on climate worry in Türkiye are pretty limited. ...
... Nature-based tourism and recreational activities are highly dependent on weather conditions. Weather changes can significantly impact these activities (Hewer and Gough 2018;Finger and Lehmann 2012;Hewer and Gough 2018;Orr et al. 2022;Poudyal 2015;O'Toole et al. 2019;Askew and Bowker 2018) through complex direct and indirect pathways (Dodds and Graci 2009). Changing climatic conditions may have both positive and negative effects on specific regions associated with outdoor recreation type (Hewer and Gough 2018;Mendelsohn and Markowski 1998;Askew and Bowker 2018;Shaw and Loomis 2008;Nicholls 2006;Richardson and Loomis 2005;Perch-Nielsen et al. 2010). ...
... Nature-based tourism and recreational activities are highly dependent on weather conditions. Weather changes can significantly impact these activities (Hewer and Gough 2018;Finger and Lehmann 2012;Hewer and Gough 2018;Orr et al. 2022;Poudyal 2015;O'Toole et al. 2019;Askew and Bowker 2018) through complex direct and indirect pathways (Dodds and Graci 2009). Changing climatic conditions may have both positive and negative effects on specific regions associated with outdoor recreation type (Hewer and Gough 2018;Mendelsohn and Markowski 1998;Askew and Bowker 2018;Shaw and Loomis 2008;Nicholls 2006;Richardson and Loomis 2005;Perch-Nielsen et al. 2010). ...
Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is considered one of the biggest threats to humanity in the century, with severe direct or indirect impacts on people’s lives. Such a significant threat causes serious concern, which can motivate low-level pro-environmental behaviour and lead to serious health problems at high levels. Therefore, determining the level of this concern is crucial. Outdoor recreation participants, who are constantly in contact with nature, can closely witness the effects of ACC due to these interactions. Therefore, evaluating their ACC worry is essential. In this study, the aim was to determine the ACC worry levels of outdoor recreation participants.
The research data was collected through an online survey from a sample reached through convenience sampling method throughout Türkiye. The data were analyzed using AMOS and SPSS software. The relationship between independent variables and ACC concern was revealed through ordinal logistic regression.
The research found that the participants had a high level of concern about ACC, with a score of 3.50. It was also determined that this level of concern was influenced by variables such as the type of outdoor recreation, the duration of participation in outdoor recreation, and exposure to the effects of ACC. Considering ACC can motivate pro-environmental behaviours, the research suggests that outdoor recreational participants with high levels of concern about ACC should not be ignored in the adaptation process.
... The island is shrinking and sinking simultaneously, taking with it all that is loved by locals and visitors [20]. Impacts most harmful for tourism on the island include coastal erosion, post-tropical storms, heatwaves, heavy precipitation/inland flooding, severe ice storm/freezing rain, earlier/warmer springs, and seasonal drought ( Figure 3) [15,[21][22][23]. This review will further investigate how climate change impacts tourism on the island and suggest a future direction and areas of study as a solution. ...
... However, as the spring season changes, winter tourism is threatened due to a shortened season. Winter resorts are particularly affected by rising temperatures and uncertain snow conditions as a result of climate change [23,34]. These changes are also expected to have an influence on winter activities, as conditions for skiing, snowboarding, snowmobiling, skating, snowshoeing, and cross-country skiing are available for shorter periods of time. ...
... Periods of heavy rainfall also occur during the late summer and early fall months, coinciding with the peak season of cruise ships docking on PEI [34,57]. The coastal low-lying golf courses on PEI have closed during periods of heavy rains in the past [23] which affected revenue. As golf courses are closed during moderate and heavier precipitation events, the golfing sector may be impacted by prolonged heavy precipitation regardless of flooding situations. ...
Citation: Haldane, E.; MacDonald, L.; Kressin, N.; Furlotte, Z.; Kınay, P.; Guild, R.; Wang, X. Sustainable
... The island is shrinking and sinking simultaneously, taking with it all that is loved by locals and visitors [20]. Impacts most harmful for tourism on the island include coastal erosion, post-tropical storms, heatwaves, heavy precipitation/inland flooding, severe ice storm/freezing rain, earlier/warmer springs, and seasonal drought ( Figure 3) [15,[21][22][23]. This review will further investigate how climate change impacts tourism on the island and suggest a future direction and areas of study as a solution. ...
... However, as the spring season changes, winter tourism is threatened due to a shortened season. Winter resorts are particularly affected by rising temperatures and uncertain snow conditions as a result of climate change [23,34]. These changes are also expected to have an influence on winter activities, as conditions for skiing, snowboarding, snowmobiling, skating, snowshoeing, and cross-country skiing are available for shorter periods of time. ...
... Periods of heavy rainfall also occur during the late summer and early fall months, coinciding with the peak season of cruise ships docking on PEI [34,57]. The coastal low-lying golf courses on PEI have closed during periods of heavy rains in the past [23] which affected revenue. As golf courses are closed during moderate and heavier precipitation events, the golfing sector may be impacted by prolonged heavy precipitation regardless of flooding situations. ...
Tourism is being impacted by climate change all around the world. Tourism is now seen as one of the economic sectors least equipped for the risks and opportunities provided by climate change, and it is just now establishing the capacity to advance the knowledge required to teach businesses, communities, and governments about the concerns and potential solutions. As a small coastal island, Prince Edward Island (PEI) on Canada’s Atlantic coast is highly vulnerable to climate change extremes, including coastal erosion, sea-level rise, and flooding. The island’s tourism industry generates substantial revenue for businesses and the government, yet it is highly vulnerable to the climate extremes that impact beach and sea-faring attractions. Limited research has been reported on this topic, and most information on island tourism and how sustainable tourism is achievable is out of date. Here, we present evidence of climate-related impacts and vulnerabilities in tourism within PEI and highlight existing and future adaptation strategies to support sustainability in this sector. Key information gaps are highlighted, and recommendations are proposed to facilitate climate resilience in Prince Edward Island’s tourism sector.
... Although the effect of climate change on tourism has been extensively studied and well-documented in the existing literature (L opez-D origa et al., 2019;Smith and Fitchett, 2020;Steiger and Scott, 2020), the impacts are diversified across regions (Hewer and Gough, 2018;Liu et al., 2019;Scott et al., 2020). For example, some regions observed a decline in the number of tourists associated with temperature rise (Falk and Lin, 2018;Pintassilgo et al., 2016) while others indicated a positive impact of temperature rise on tourism (Giannakopoulos et al., 2011;. ...
... The emerging amount of literature on the impacts of climate change on tourism reveals that there is substantial heterogeneity across regions (Hewer and Gough, 2018;Liu et al., 2019;Scott et al., 2020). As mentioned above, the impact of temperature rises may harm ski tourism in Europe (Damm et al., 2017;Falk and Lin, 2018) and North America but favors the climate comfort in the higher-latitudes destinations . ...
... Since the impact of climate change is not uniform across the region (Hewer and Gough, 2018;Liu et al., 2019;Scott et al., 2020), investigating the associations between climate change and tourism in various tourist destinations is deemed necessary. To the best of the authors' knowledge, how and to what extent the climatic variables and extreme weather events predict international tourism in an island country with a tropical climate are not fully unveiled. ...
Tourism is one of the main economic sectors, which is impacted by climate change on a global scale. Yet, whether and to what extent climate change influences tourism in island countries with tropical weather has not been fully understood. Here, we seek to fill this gap by evaluating the role of climate variables and climate-related extreme events on the number of international tourists in Indonesia empirically. A panel dataset of 5 provinces in Indonesia, which accounted for more than 80 percent of international tourists traveling to Indonesia between 2008 and 2018, was used to perform a feasible generalized least square (FGLS) regression. Consistent with previous findings, the empirical results show that both temperature and relative humidity particularly explain the variations in the number of international tourists in Indonesia. Every 1% increment of temperature and relative humidity is associated with a decrease in the number of international tourists in Indonesia by 1.37% and 0.59%, respectively. This study also suggests that the effect of climate change and climate-related extreme events is not homogeneous among tourists from different regions. These findings develop novel insights for climate change adaptation for policymakers and the tourism industry in Indonesia as well as in other warm destinations.
... For this part of the analysis, the monthly information on HCI is further aggregated at the seasonal scale, which is sufficiently appropriate for the extent of the period analyzed (20 years) and it is in line with other studies addressing the potential changes in climate attractivity in the context of climate change (e.g., [37,55,65,66]). The spatial pattern and amplitude of the difference in the number of days with 'good' and 'unfavorable' conditions between RCP4.5 and HISTORICAL and between RCP8.5 and HISTORICAL simulations, respectively, is investigated. Furthermore, HISTORICAL data are compared with HCI information derived from the observation-based dataset ROCADA (Romanian ClimAtic Dataset; [67]) in order to assess the limitations of the modelled data in describing the current climate suitability conditions for tourism. ...
... By documenting the expected changes in climate suitability for tourism in Romania, this study provides a first view on these aspects for the considered region. The use of the Holiday Climate Index represents another element of novelty in the tourism research focusing on Romania, both through the derivation of the index from reanalysis data as well as through its use in the context of climate change and aligns the study with the most recent approaches (e.g., [65,[91][92][93]). Furthermore, the estimation of the direct impact of changes in climate suitability on tourism flux at the destination level, with a particular focus on urban and rural tourism, points toward the limitations of climate as a favoring factor for local tourism, providing useful insights to local authorities and tourism investors. ...
This study presents an assessment of climate suitability for outdoor leisure activities in Romania using the Holliday Climate Index (HCI) for the near future (2021–2040), focusing on unfavorable and good climate conditions. The analysis employs data from an ensemble of model simulations in the context of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the number of days with low weather suitability is decreasing in almost the entire country, especially during the warm season, while during the winter and spring, extended regions may be characterized by a higher number of days favorable for outdoor activities than during the current climate. An estimation of the impact of climate change on tourism flux in Romania is further carried out, suggesting that the increasing attractivity of climate conditions may lead to an increased number of tourist overnights in the near future, and this will be more pronounced in rural destinations.
... At the national level, high diversity among economic regions in Canada 26 may contribute more to resiliency than diversification within regions 44 . It should also be noted that there are a number of industries which may individually contribute to increases in economic production and resiliency 45,46 . The wine industry in the Southeastern region is projected to increase in production so long as it pivots to include heat tolerant grape varieties, because fewer crops will be lost to cold weather as minimum temperatures continue to climb 45 . ...
... The wine industry in the Southeastern region is projected to increase in production so long as it pivots to include heat tolerant grape varieties, because fewer crops will be lost to cold weather as minimum temperatures continue to climb 45 . Additionally, more favourable climatic conditions are projected to increase general tourism and recreation activities in Canada, though cold weather tourism may drop with fewer cold weather days 46 . Nonetheless, regions and provinces with higher likelihood of stressed infrastructure should be the focus of capital mobilization and deployment. ...
Climate change will have considerable impact on the global economy. Estimates of the economic damages due to climate change have focused on the effect of average temperature, but not the effect of other important climate variables. Related research has not explored the sub-annual economic cycles which may be impacted by climate volatility. To address these deficits, we propose a flexible, non-linear framework which includes a wide range of climate variables to estimate changes in GDP and project sub-annual economic cycle adjustments (period, amplitude, trough depth). We find that the inclusion of a more robust set of climate variables improves model performance by over 20%. Importantly, the improved model predicts an increase in GDP rather than a decrease when only temperature is considered. We also find that climate influences the sub-annual economics of all but one province in Canada. Highest stressed were the Prairie and Atlantic regions. Least stressed was the Southeastern region. Our study advances understanding of the nuances in the relationship between climate change and economic output in Canada. It also provides a method that can be applied to related economies globally to target adaptation and resilience management. Climate change will impact the global economy. Here, the authors propose a framework to evaluate its effect on economies across multiple regional and temporal scales, and project decreased financial stability in a northern temperate economy.
... Thus, global warming can have a significant impact on the tourism industry. For the present status, the existing literature has found that cold-weather activities may be at greater risk due to climate change, especially skiing (Steiger et al. 2019), while there might be increased opportunities for warmweather activities (Hewer and Gough 2018). Another survey on the weather preferences of French tourists revealed that tourists generally show a high tolerance for heat and even to heatwaves, while rainy conditions are a disincentive to travel (Dubois et al. 2016). ...
... For the future projections, tourism will grow in the future, and the influence of changes in population and income is expected to be larger than that from climate change (Hamilton et al. 2005). It is important to note, however, that there are significant gaps in knowledge when predicting future tourism trends, including outdated climate science, climate models, and climate change scenarios; inconsistent assessments between different regions; and a lack of assessment methods for weather sensitivity and potential impacts of climate change for outdoor recreation and tourism activities (Hewer and Gough 2018). ...
For the purpose of identifying the key processes and sectors involved in the interaction between Earth and socio-economic systems, we review existing studies on those processes/sectors through which the climate impacts socio-economic systems, which then in turn affect the climate. For each process/sector, we review the direct physical and ecological impacts and, if available, the impact on the economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on this review, land sector is identified as the process with the most significant impact on GHG emissions, while labor productivity has the largest impact on the gross domestic product (GDP). On the other hand, the energy sector, due to the increase in the demand for cooling, will have increased GHG emissions. Water resources, sea level rise, natural disasters, ecosystem services, and diseases also show the potential to have a significant influence on GHG emissions and GDP, although for most of these, a large effect was reported only by a limited number of studies. As a result, more studies are required to verify their influence in terms of feedbacks to the climate. In addition, although the economic damage arising from migration and conflict is uncertain, they should be treated as potentially damaging processes.
... These weather events cause a range of damage and destruction in various sectors, such as agriculture, forestry and tourism. [6][7][8][9] The consequences of climate change also have a negative impact on human health, both physical and mental. [10] Consequently, climate change may have a significant impact on sustainable development. ...
The aim of the study was to explore attitudes towards climate change among wilderness seekers. The subjects were 273 (M=23.15; SD=7.72) adults. The respondents completed four questionnaires: Wilderness Novelty Seeking Scale, Wilderness Self-Efficacy Sale, Wilderness Courage Scale and Attitude Towards Climate Changes Scale. There were three distinct profiles of the respondents: Curious, who are interested in the wilderness but lack the skills and courage to explore dangerous wilderness places; Adventurous, who actively seek experiences in dangerous wilderness places and have survival skills; and Indifferent, who have little interest in the wilderness. The participants in these profiles differed in terms of attitude toward climate change. The Curious and Adventurous groups were significantly more concerned about climate change. In addition, they were more likely to believe that climate change is already having a negative impact on the lives of people in the places where they live. Furthermore, the Curious group experienced positive feelings towards climate change less often than the Adventurous group. On the other hand, the Curious group experienced significantly more negative feelings in relation to climate change. Finally, wilderness seekers (Curious and Adventurous) were statistically more likely to engage in pro-environmental behaviors in the context of climate change compared to the Indifferent group.
... Extreme weather conditions arising from our climate changing also have a large economic impact, and fixing the results on natural disasters consumes significant amounts of means and resources. These weather events cause a range of damage and destruction in various sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, and tourism [6][7][8][9]. The consequences of climate change also have a negative impact on human health, both physical and mental [10]. ...
The aim of the study was to explore attitudes towards climate change among wilderness seekers. The subjects were 273 (M = 23.15, SD = 7.72) adults. These included: 189 women, 80 men and 4 people who identified as non-binary. The respondents completed four questionnaires: Wilderness Novelty Seeking Scale, Wilderness Self-Efficacy Sale, Wilderness Courage Scale, and Attitude Towards Climate Changes Scale. There were three distinct profiles of the respondents: Curious, who are interested in the wilderness but lack the skills and courage to explore dangerous wilderness places; Adventurous, who actively seek experiences in dangerous wilderness places and have survival skills; and Indifferent, who have little interest in the wilderness. The participants in these profiles differed in terms of attitude toward climate change. The Curious and Adventurous groups were significantly more concerned about climate change. In addition, they were more likely to believe that climate change is already having a negative impact on the lives of people in the places where they live. Furthermore, The Curious group felt less positive about climate change than the Adventurous group. They also felt more negative about it. Finally, wilderness seekers (Curious and Adventurous) were statistically more likely to engage in pro-environmental behaviors in the context of climate change compared to the Indifferent group.
... There is a body of relevant literature on how outdoor recreation is being impacted by climate change [12][13][14], most of which is from the perspectives of visitor experience [15,16], but much less of this research is centered on how managers and decision-makers are adapting in their industries to these conditions. While there is also research on how resilience and adaptation to climate change are actioned on local scales, including in BC [17,18] and throughout Canada [19,20], there is very limited research on the impacts of environmental change on user experience that is specific to backcountry trail networks in BC. This study addresses both of these gaps in research. ...
Climate change, natural resource industries, and an expanding outdoor tourism sector have recently increased access to sensitive backcountry environments in Western Canada. Trail managers are struggling to manage trail conditions with the mounting effects of smoke, dust, fire, flood, area closures, and beetle outbreaks in their regions. Outdoor recreation trail managers are linking these events and are thinking critically about the history and interconnectedness of land use management decisions in the province of British Columbia (BC). As the effects of climate change continue to challenge both trail managers and sport recreationists, guides and trail associations have been identified as key education facilitators in the development and dissemination of environmental consciousness. Guided by a community-based participatory research approach, this study used personal interviews with trail managers across the province to highlight how a connection with local ecosystems can develop a more robust land ethic for recreational trail user communities in BC.
... The high-resolution snow depth maps generated using the UAS-SfM method could further be used in small-scale (below 1 to 100 m) studies of snow accumulation and melt processes, including enhanced observation of interactions between snow, vegetation, and topography. On a local or medium scale (100-4000 m), the method could be used to improve landscape-specific information for snow depth for recreational use and tourism, as well as in calibrating and/or validating catchment-scale hydrological models used in research, environmental planning, hydropower, or flood prediction (Kinar and Pomeroy 2015;Sturm, 2015;Ala-aho et al., 2017;Hewer and Gough, 2018). ...
Detailed information on seasonal snow cover and depth is essential to the understanding of snow processes, to operational forecasting, and as input for hydrological models. Recent advances in uncrewed or unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) and structure from motion (SfM) techniques have enabled low-cost monitoring of spatial snow depth distribution in resolutions of up to a few centimeters. Here, we study the spatiotemporal variability in snow depth and interactions between snow and vegetation in different subarctic landscapes consisting of a mosaic of conifer forest, mixed forest, transitional woodland/shrub, and peatland areas. To determine the spatiotemporal variability in snow depth, we used high-resolution (50 cm) snow depth maps generated from repeated UAS–SfM surveys in the winter of 2018/2019 and a snow-free bare-ground survey after snowmelt. Due to poor subcanopy penetration with the UAS–SfM method, tree masks were utilized to remove canopy areas and the area (36 cm) immediately next to the canopy before analysis. Snow depth maps were compared to the in situ snow course and a single-point continuous ultrasonic snow depth measurement. Based on the results, the difference between the UAS–SfM survey median snow depth and single-point measurement increased for all land cover types during the snow season, from +5 cm at the beginning of the accumulation to -16 cm in coniferous forests and -32 cm in peatland during the melt period. This highlights the poor representation of point measurements in selected locations even on the subcatchment scale. The high-resolution snow depth maps agreed well with the snow course measurement, but the spatial extent and resolution of maps were substantially higher. The snow depth range (5th–95th percentiles) within different land cover types increased from 17 to 42 cm in peatlands and from 33 to 49 cm in the coniferous forest from the beginning of the snow accumulation to the melt period. Both the median snow depth and its range were found to increase with canopy density; this increase was greatest in the conifer forest area, followed by mixed forest, transitional woodland/shrub, and open peatlands. Using the high-spatial-resolution data, we found a systematic increase (2–20 cm) and then a decline in snow depth near the canopy with increasing distance (from 1 to 2.5 m) of the peak value through the snow season. This study highlights the applicability of the UAS–SfM in high-resolution monitoring of snow depth in multiple land cover types and snow–vegetation interactions in subarctic and remote areas where field data are not available or where the available data are collected using classic point measurements or snow courses.
... In general, tourism is known as a highly climate-sensitive sector, that is significantly influenced by environmental changes [1]. For example, in countries with cold climates, the increase in outdoor temperature leads to opportunities for warm-weather activities, but has negative impacts on cold-weather activities, such as alpine skiing, snowmobiling, polar bear sighting and glacier viewing [2]. In Countries with a temperate to hot climate, climate change and the increased temperatures can significantly affect the number of visits to nature parks. ...
Background
Climate change is leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in many regions of the world. Climate change is also related to air pollution. Both heatwaves and air pollution have adverse health effects, and can also affect social behaviors, including tourism and touristic activities. The aim of this study was to examine the association between heatwaves, air pollution and visits to national parks and reserves in Israel.
Methods
Data on 68,518 visits in 51 national parks and reserves in Israel in the years 2016–2019 was crossed with temperature and air pollution data (represented by particulate matter PM10) and analyzed using statistical tests.
Results
Number of visits, as a function of temperature followed a unimodal distribution, in which more visits were reported on mild temperature days (in comparison to hot or cold days). In addition, the number of visits in sites with beaches was linearly correlated with temperature. Negative associations were found between number of visits and heatwaves, and between number of visits and exceedances in PM10 levels.
Conclusions
Heatwaves were shown to have a negative effect on the number of visits in national parks and reserves in Israel. The negative association between exceedances in air pollution and number of visits may be mediated by the positive correlation between air pollution exceedance events and heatwaves.
... Theoretically, there is a two-way interaction between climate change and global tourism (Hewer and Gough 2018;Hoogendoorn and Fitchett 2018;Njoroge 2015) (see Fig. 1). Tourism has a significant impact on the environment and climate (Lenzen et al. 2018;Scott et al. 2012;Scott and Becken 2010). ...
Global tourism, climate change and energy sustainability
... In limiting the potential distribution of species, climate factors are the key factors on the macro scale, and the study of the interaction between plants and climate is an important direction of ecology [24][25][26]. In this study, the important analysis showed that the top two environmental variables in percent contribution rate were Temperature. ...
... The current study demonstrates the usefulness of the SDF as a measure of climatic change, and future research should expand the geographic scope of this study to include other locations across Canada as well as other international studies in regions where precipitation falls as snow. The snow-day fraction may also be a useful measure within the field of applied climatology and climate change impact assessment, with potential applications for outdoor recreation and tourism (Hewer and Gough 2018), including winter activities like snowmobiling (McBoyle et al. 2007), downhill skiing (Scott et al. 2019) and crosscountry skiing . Another potentially useful application of the SDF could involve the transportation sector (Picketts et al. 2016), including road safety (Hambly et al. 2013), pavement maintenance (Tighe et al. 2008) and winter (ice) roads (Hori et al. 2017(Hori et al. , 2018. ...
Global temperatures are increasing, and regional precipitation patterns are changing. Snow is an excellent indicator of regional climate change; 50 years of temperature and precipitation data were analysed from weather stations located within the five most populated cities of Ontario (Canada). Recorded measurements for temperature and precipitation were converted into binary values to indicate the frequency of rain days, snow days, wet days (when total precipitation is greater than 0.2 mm) and freezing days (when the average temperature is less than 0 °C); then, these values were summed over each winter season from 1970/71 to 2019/20. The snow-day fraction was calculated from the seasonal totals by dividing the total number of snow days by the total number of wet days. Historical trends were detected using Pearson’s R, Kendall’s Tau and Spearman’s Rho. Differences in mean values between the first decade (1971–1980) and the last decade (2011–2020) within the time series for the snow-day fraction and total freezing days were determined using Student’s t-tests. During the winter season in southern Ontario (December 1 to March 31), total snow days, total wet days, the snow-day fraction and freezing days were all decreasing at statistically significant rates (90 to 99% confidence levels) across four of the five cities studied (Toronto, Ottawa, Hamilton and London). Mississauga was the exception, being the only city where rain days were increasing, but no trends were detected for snow days or wet days. The snow-day fraction was decreasing in Mississauga but not at a statistically significant rate, despite freezing days decreasing at the greatest rate compared to the other four cities. Total freezing days were highly correlated with the snow-day fraction during the winter season, being able to explain 61 to 76 percent of the observed variability, where Mississauga recorded the weakest correlation and London recorded the strongest correlation.
... Overview Research on climate change and tourism in North America was first published in the late 1980s and has since proliferated, particularly in the last twenty years (Hewer & Gough, 2018). Collectively, studies highlight the deeply complex and interconnected relationship, both in terms of climate's impact on tourism and the sector's contribution to climate. ...
Climate change will have profound implications for North America's tourism industry, which is one of the largest tourism markets globally with respect to international tourism arrivals (146 million) and receipts (US$246 billion). This article provides a critical overview of regional tourism and climate change research published in academic journals following the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This article highlights the differential climate risks and opportunities by impact type (e.g. temperature , precipitation, extreme weather, sea level rise, ecosystem change) for all available market segments (e.g. winter sports, beach, parks, and fishing). A synthesis of studies that estimate sectoral carbon emissions and the risk of not transitioning to a net-zero future are also explored, including an overview of national climate policies and decarbonization strategies. Key knowledge gaps are underscored, with research priorities offered to help advance climate action within North America's tourism sector. ARTICLE HISTORY
... Naald, 2020;Salim et al., 2021;Welling et al., 2020). Hewer and Gough (2018), in their view of climate literature published between 1986 and 2016, echoed an uneven geographic distribution of climate assessment. Given that climate change is still a relatively new subject of investigation, it is likely that assessing affected locations and activities may not be sufficient. ...
This study examines tourism professionals’ perceptions of climate change and their reactions to the associated challenges. Sixteen in-depth interviews with tourism professionals who work at Arctic destinations in Norway, Finland, Iceland, and Denmark (i.e. Greenland), reveal that the professionals acknowledge several pressing issues arising from climate change, such as glacier retreating and snow shortfall. It discovers one salient adaptation action in association with snow-related activities. Further, three streams of driving forces prompt the professionals to devise sustainable mitigation actions entailing (1) staging socially responsible and wellbeing tourist experiences, (2) implementing waste programmes friendly to the Arctic ecosystem, and (3) cultivating eco-friendly practices through certifications and educational programmes. Lastly, to further construe the attitudes of tourism professionals, this study elicits the Climate Resilience Model on Arctic Tourism, characterizing the interplay among climate impacts, driving forces, and climate actions by the tourism business across four Arctic nations under study.
... Theoretically, there is a two-way interaction between climate change and global tourism (Hewer and Gough 2018;Hoogendoorn and Fitchett 2018;Njoroge 2015) (see Fig. 1). Tourism has a significant impact on the environment and climate (Lenzen et al. 2018;Scott et al. 2012;Scott and Becken 2010). ...
As many business activities—especially those associated with the energy-intensive industries—continue to be major sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and hence significantly contributing to global warming, there is a perceived need to identify ways to make business activities eventually carbon neutral. This paper explores the implications of a changing climate for the global tourism business and its intertwining global aviation industry that operates in a self-regulatory environment. Adopting a bibliometric analysis of the literature in the domain of global tourism and climate change (772 articles), the paper reveals the underlying sustainability issues that entail unsustainable energy consumption. The aviation industry as a significant source of carbon emission within the sector is then examined by analyzing the top 20 largest commercial airlines in the world with respect to its ongoing mitigating measures in meeting the Paris Agreement targets. While self-regulatory initiatives are taken to adopt Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) as alternative fuel production and consumption for drastically reducing carbon emission, voluntary alignment and commitment to long-term targets remain inconsistent. A concerted strategic approach to building up complementary sustainable infrastructures among the global network of airports based in various international tourist destination cities to enable a measurable reduction in carbon emission is necessary to achieve a transformational adaptation of a business sector that is of essence to the recovery of the global economy while attempting to tackle climate change in a post-COVID-19 era.
... In North America, the rapid and continued growth of the recreation industry (White et al., 2016) reinforces an urgent need to understand how wildlife respond to larger numbers of recreationists in PAs. Recreation is wellknown to promote human health (Willis, 2015;Wolf et al., 2020), cultural resilience (ISRC & CPRA, 2015), and economic prosperity (Naidoo et al., 2016), and increases in recreational activity may be driven by population growth (White et al., 2016), social media (Winter et al., 2019), or prolonged summers caused by climate change (Hewer & Gough, 2018). These increases are commonly seen in national parks, but locally managed parks also see increasing numbers of recreationists, potentially due to greater accessibility (Larson et al., 2018;White et al., 2016), underscoring a need for recreation ecologists to consider how recreation affects wildlife across a range of PAs. ...
The dual mandate for many protected areas (PAs) to simultaneously promote recreation and conserve biodiversity may be hampered by negative effects of recreation on wildlife. However, reports of these effects are not consistent, presenting a knowledge gap that hinders evidence‐based decision‐making. We used camera traps to monitor human activity and terrestrial mammals in Golden Ears Provincial Park and the adjacent University of British Columbia Malcolm Knapp Research Forest near Vancouver, Canada, with the objective of discerning relative effects of various forms of recreation on cougars (Puma concolor), black bears (Ursus americanus), black‐tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus), snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), coyotes (Canis latrans), and bobcats (Lynx rufus). Additionally, public closures of the study area associated with the COVD‐19 pandemic offered an unprecedented period of human‐exclusion through which to explore these effects. Using Bayesian generalized mixed‐effects models, we detected negative effects of hikers (mean posterior estimate = −0.58, 95% credible interval [CI] −1.09 to −0.12) on weekly bobcat habitat use and negative effects of motorized vehicles (estimate = −0.28, 95% CI −0.61 to −0.05) on weekly black bear habitat use. We also found increased cougar detection rates in the PA during the COVID‐19 closure (estimate = 0.007, 95% CI 0.005 to 0.009), but decreased cougar detection rates (estimate = −0.006, 95% CI −0.009 to −0.003) and increased black‐tailed deer detection rates (estimate = 0.014, 95% CI 0.002 to 0.026) upon reopening of the PA. Our results emphasize that effects of human activity on wildlife habitat use and movement may be species‐ and/or activity‐dependent, and that camera traps can be an invaluable tool for monitoring both wildlife and human activity, collecting data even when public access is barred. Further, we encourage PA managers seeking to promote both biodiversity conservation and recreation to explicitly assess trade‐offs between these two goals in their PAs.
... 2 -A procura turística em algumas áreas geográficas é muito intensa (e.g., destinos de turismo de massas na bacia do Mediterrâneo) e, devido ao "efeito lock-in" associado a esses destinos, a procura manter-se-á muito próxima dos níveis atuais nos próximos anos, embora os fenómenos e as manifestações das alterações climáticas sejam já substanciais. Num relatório sobre as atitudes dos europeus em relação ao turismo, demonstrou-se que 54,0% dos europeus preferem passar as suas Embora o turismo "sustentável" esteja na agenda da investigação e da indústria turística há muitos anos, sobretudo desde o relatório de Brundtland (1987), apenas nas últimas décadas foram realizados estudos sobre os possíveis impactes das alterações climáticas na indústria do turismo (Wall, 1998a(Wall, , 1998bMaddison, 2001;Lise & Tol, 2002;Belle & Bramwell, 2005;Amelung & Viner, 2006;Bigano et al., 2006;Perry, 2006;Amelung et al., 2007;Scott et al., 2007aScott et al., , 2007bCaldeira & Kastenholz, 2018;Dube & Nhamo, 2018;Hewer & Gough, 2018;Dube & Nhamo, 2020). O mesmo tem acontecido relativamente ao estudo dos impactes potenciais do turismo nas alterações climáticas (Høyer, 2000;Becken & Simmons, 2002a;Gössling, 2002;Becken et al., 2003;Patterson et al., 2006;Dolnicar et al., 2010;Peeters, 2017;Knowles, 2019;Whitmarsh et al., 2020). ...
In recent years, those who create strategies and policies for urban tourist destinations have been increasingly concerned with the greater or lesser capacity to enjoy public space. Furthermore, the growth of urban areas on a global scale has caused significant changes in the (micro)climate, due to the increase in impermeable surfaces, the anthropogenic heat generated by human activities and the change in air circulation. Taking into account the increasing demands of tourists and residents and the need to improve cities in the face of climate change, the option is to design new measures and action solutions. However, the lack of quality of the input data or their (total) absence, as well as their low spatial resolution, are common. The inadequacy of structures for sharing information is also noted, which significantly limits planning and adaptation actions. This investigation aims to identify the main methods of analysis to monitor the current ability to enjoy tourism based on the integration of objective and subjective domains; and contribute to the definition of action plans which seek to mitigate and adapt the tourism sector to climate change, in the medium and long-term. To assess the validity of these assumptions, the Porto Metropolitan Area, in general, and the municipality of Porto, in particular, were used as case studies. In this investigation, different methods of information and units of analysis were combined, based on a meso approach and local scale for: (i) the identification of critical areas, in an office analysis based essentially on Big Data (i.e., Flickr photographs, AirBnB accommodation and MODIS and LANDSAT satellite imagery); (ii) the assessment of the comfort level for enjoyment in critical areas with high tourist potential through field data collection; and (iii) the identification of prioritization actions and measures to maintain tourism attractiveness in view of climate change, in the medium and long-term. This research highlights the need for more detailed information, the weak interaction between stakeholders and the limitation of resources. Thus, considering that Porto is a destination with a good climate for tourism, and committed to mitigating the effects of climate change, the proposed methodological triangulation allows to outline some measures with predictable action in the short, medium and long-term. Finally, this study aims to make some contributions at national and international level, with the likelihood of the methodological approach adopted to be replicated in other geographical areas, taking into account the particularities of each territory under analysis.
... Mokras-Grabowska (2018) lists the following elements of recreational space: parks and urban forests, sports grounds, beaches, sports and recreation facilities, playgrounds and areas for cultural and entertainment events. This article focuses on outdoor creative recreation, which has been widely discussed in the literature (Beery & Jönsson, 2017;Budruk & Stanis, 2013;Fix et al., 2018;Hewer & Gough, 2018;Parry & Gollob, 2018;Sausser et al., 2019;Stenseke & Hansen, 2014;Suárez et al., 2020;Zanon et al., 2018); in this study, creative recreation is analysed in the context of space and its interaction with space and places. ...
The concept of creative recreation is currently gaining a new meaning. The author proposes expanding the meaning of recreation to include creative recreation by drawing on insights from psycho-pedagogical theories of creativity. Nowadays creative recreation is also being explored more broadly in the context of urban space, as exemplified by workshops during which participants try to create urban space. The phenomenon of creative recreation in urban space is therefore an interesting subject for research, especially with a view to identifying factors that determine where creative activity is organised. The main research question addressed in this article is who and why organises outdoor creative recreation in urban recreational space? The study focuses on Łódź, a UNESCO Creative City of Film, which is analysed as an example of a city promoting itself as a creative urban centre. The author analyses results of interviews with experts and organisers of outdoor creative recreation, which show the latter ones as open-minded, engaged, and passionate. Other important characteristics revealed by the interviewees include cooperation with others, attempts to look for new ways of organising leisure time and new forms of mutual promotion. The organisers of outdoor creative recreation also expressed their strong attachment their city.
... Genel olarak iklim değişikliği kayak, kış festivalleri ve buzul gözlemi gibi soğuk hava faaliyetlerini olumsuz etkileyecek olmasıyla birlikte, bazı avantajları da beraberinde getirecektir. Örneğin günümüzde bazı soğuk bölgeler ileride sıcak hava gerektiren genel turizm faaliyetleri için daha uygun hale geleceklerdir (Hewer ve Gough, 2018). Bunun yanında iklim değişikliğinin Kuzey Kutbu'na olan etkileri ile birlikte kuzey ülkelerin popülaritesinin arttığı ve bu durumun bölgenin kayak alanlarının göreceli iklim direnci ile birleştirilerek bölgesel kalkınma sağlayabileceği söylenebilir (Demiroglu vd., 2020). ...
... On the other hand, more temperate destinations such as New Zealand, Canada and the US would likely benefit from climate change (Deutsche Bank, 2008). According to Hewer and Gough (2018), increasing temperatures will have positive impacts on tourism in Canada by helping to sustain a more suitable climate for park or zoo visits, golf, and general tourism activities. On the other hand, winter tourism activities dependent on snow accumulation and the presence of ice will be threatened by warming. ...
Abstarct
This study focuses on quantifying the impacts of climate change on international tourism in Turkey through the estimation of the future number of international tourists for different tourism destinations. For this purpose, 30 tourism destinations were selected from different regions in Turkey offering different kinds of tourism attributes and climatic conditions. Future tourism demand was estimated based on comfort level change, a major determinant of tourist preference, and evaluated through the Tourism Climate Index. Changes in climate comfort levels between a base period (1963–2017), a projected medium term period representing the 2050s (2040–2069), and a projected long term period representing the 2080s (2070–2099) were correlated with the number of international tourists using a regression model developed by Hein et al. (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,1:170–178, 2009). The results of this study project extreme drops in demand, seasonal shifts, and the emergence of new alternative destinations. The study is significant as the first quantitative evaluation of climate change impacts on tourism demand in Turkey through a comparison of the spatial exposures of destinations. The results will help lead the way to a national tourism development roadmap in Turkey through the revelation of regional risks and opportunities and will serve as a benchmarking study for tourism destinations that have similar climate conditions and tourism patterns.
... Such changes in snow conditions will result in impacts for various snow-dependent sectors including winter recreation and water reservoir supply. As with other ski resorts in southwestern BC, winter and spring snow amounts are expected to decline with increasing temperatures due to climate change (Hewer and Gough 2018, Pidwirny et al. 2018, Scott and McBoyle 2006. Given its more inland location and higher elevation (WM, Figure 1), Whistler and Blackcomb mountains are expected to retain higher SWE levels than other lower elevation ski hills (e.g. ...
Information about snow water equivalent in southwestern British Columbia, Canada, is used for flood management, agriculture, fisheries, and water resource planning. This study evaluates whether a process-based, energy balance snow model supplied with high-resolution statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation data can effectively simulate snow water equivalent (SWE) in the mountainous terrain of this region. Daily values of SWE from 1951 to 2018 are simulated at 1-km resolution and evaluated using a reanalysis SWE product [Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS)], manual snow-survey measurements at 41 sites, and automated snow pillows at six locations in the study region. Simulated SWE matches observed interannual variability well ( R ² > 0.8 for annual maximum SWE), but peak SWE biases of 20%–40% occur at some sites in the study domain, and higher biases occur where observed SWE is very low. Modeled SWE displays lower bias relative to SNODAS reanalysis at most manual survey locations. Future projections for the study area are produced using 12 downscaled climate model simulations and are used to illustrate the impacts of climate change on SWE at 1°, 2°, and 3°C of warming. Model results are used to quantify spring SWE changes at different elevations of the Whistler mountain ski resort and the sensitivity of annual peak SWE in the Metropolitan Vancouver municipal watersheds to moderate temperature increases. The results both illustrate the potential utility of a process-based snow model and identify areas where the input meteorological variables could be improved.
Significance Statement
Using high-resolution (1 km) climate data, we evaluate and apply a snow model in the mountainous terrain of coastal, southwestern British Columbia, Canada. Modeling snow water equivalent at high-resolution enables better representation of snow conditions that can vary widely over short distances and elevations. At 1°, 2°, and 3°C of warming, future snow water equivalent levels at sites nearer the coast are more vulnerable to temperature increases than sites slightly higher in elevation and farther inland. Future efforts to improve the climate data may yield better agreement between simulated and observed snow levels in certain locations.
... Downscaling methods can be classified as (i) dynamical downscaling (DD) and (ii) statistical downscaling (SD) approaches (Nourani et al. 2019a, b). SD methods develop statistical relationships between local climate variables and Responsible Editor: Marcus Schulz large-scale predictors, while DD approaches use the regional climate models incorporated with results from larger-scale climate models (Wilby et al. 2002;Hewer and Gough 2018). The SD methods are divided into the perfect prognosis (PP) and model output statistic (MOS) (Ahmed et al. 2020). ...
This study evaluates the future climate fluctuations in Iran’s eight major climate regions (G1–G8). Synoptic data for the period 1995–2014 was used as the reference for downscaling and estimation of possible alternation of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature in three future periods, near future (2020–2040), middle future (2040–2060), and far future (2060–2080) for two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios, SSP119 and SSP245. The Gradient Boosting Regression Tree (GBRT) ensemble algorithm has been utilized to implement the downscaling model. Pearson’s correlation coefficient (CC) was used to assess the ability of CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) in replicating observed precipitation and temperature in different climate zones for the based period (1995–2014) to select the most suitable GCM for Iran. The suitability of 21 meteorological variables was evaluated to select the best combination of inputs to develop the GBRT downscaling model. The results revealed GFDL-ESM4 as the most suitable GCM for replicating the synoptic climate of Iran for the base period. Two variables, namely sea surface temperature (ts) and air temperature (tas), are the most suitable variable for developing a downscaling model for precipitation, while ts, tas, and geopotential height (zg) for maximum temperature, and tas, zg, and sea level pressure (psl) for minimum temperature. The GBRT showed significant improvement in downscaling GCM simulation compared to support vector regression, previously found as most suitable for the downscaling climate in Iran. The projected precipitation revealed the highest increase in arid and semi-arid regions (G1) by an average of 144%, while a declination in the margins of the Caspian Sea (G8) by −74%. The projected maximum temperature showed an increase up to +8°C in highland climate regions. The minimum temperature revealed an increase up to +4°C in the Zagros mountains and decreased by −4°C in different climate zones. The results indicate the potential of the GBRT ensemble machine learning model for reliable downscaling of CMIP6 GCMs for better projections of climate.
... In NBT, the natural environment is directly affected by climate change (Mushawemhuka et al., 2018;Hewer et al., 2018). An extensive range of Southern African case studies on climate change impacts aid in gaining knowledge about imminent threats climate change may pose on the tourism sector (Pandy and Rogerson, 2018;. ...
Good weather and favourable climate are vital resources for tourism, particularly nature-based tourism (NBT). Weather plays a pivotal role in selecting tourist activities and the overall experience of the trip, while climate influences the timing of the trip, the range of activities offered, and the natural environment experiences which attract tourists. This influence is amplified in countries located in the global South, which have little to no adaptative capacity to ameliorate unfavourable climatic conditions and extreme weather experiences. This study presents the first comprehensive tourism and climate change analysis in Zimbabwe, and used a mixed-methods approach to: (1) assess tourists’ perceptions of climate change; (2) explore tourism stakeholders’ perceptions of climate change and their adaptation strategies; and (3) investigate the climatic suitability of Zimbabwe for tourism at various selected locations across the country. This comprehensive assessment is the first of its kind in Southern African tourism and climate change research which triangulates three different sets of empirical findings in evaluating Zimbabwean climate suitability and climate change perceptions, which enhanced the credibility of the research findings. For the tourists’ perceptions, closed and open-ended questionnaires were used, while semi-structured interviews were conducted with tourism stakeholders to investigate their climate change perceptions and the adaptation strategies they employ. For climate suitability, the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) was calculated. The results from the TCI highlight that the mean annual TCI scores for Zimbabwe range between 75.5-83 (100 being the maximum score), classifying the country as having “very good” to “excellent” climatic conditions for tourism, while the mean monthly TCI scores range from 53.8 “good” to 86 also “excellent” climatic conditions for tourism for the period under study 1989-2014. These results were then triangulated with questionnaire results from tourists and semi-structured interviews with various tourism stakeholders at the selected locations around Zimbabwe. These three sets of results largely complemented each other where thermal comfort is the most important climatic variable considered for tourism climate suitability by the TCI, the tourists and the tourism stakeholders, and hence addressed the knowledge gap in Southern African climate change and tourism.
... A warmer climate in Canada could be beneficial for shipping due to less ice coverage on lakes and other water passages (Hewer and Gough 2019a); however, warming temperatures can also limit transportation in areas that depend on ice roads (Hori et al. 2017(Hori et al. , 2018. Furthermore, a warmer climate can extend camping seasons (Hewer et al. 2016;Hewer and Gough 2019b) and other warm weather tourism activities (Hewer and Gough 2016a, b), but will be detrimental to many winter season tourism activities, especially those dependent on snow and ice (Hewer and Gough 2018). ...
This study further develops and finally validates the Climate Model Confidence Index (CMCI) as a simple and effective metric for evaluating and ranking the ability of climate models to reproduce historical climate conditions. Modelled daily climate data outputs from two different statistical downscaling techniques (PCIC: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium; SDSM: Statistical Down-Scaling Model) are compared with observational data recorded by Environment Canada weather stations located in Kelowna, BC (Canada), for the period from 1969 to 2005. Using daily data ( N > 13,000), Student’s t -tests determined if there were statistically significant differences between the modelled and observed means while ANOVA F -tests identified differences between variances. Using aggregated annual data ( N = 37), CMCI values were also calculated for the individual model runs from each statistical downscaling technique. Climate model outputs were ranked according to the absolute value of the t statistics. The 20 SDSM ensembles outperformed the 27 PCIC models for both minimum and maximum temperatures, while PCIC outperformed SDSM for total precipitation. Linear regression determined the correlation between the absolute value of the t statistics and the corresponding CMCI values ( R ² > 0.99, P < 0.001). Rare discrepancies (< 10% of all model rankings) between the t statistic and CMCI rankings occurred at the third decimal place and resulted in a one rank difference between models. These discrepancies are attributed to the precision of the t tests which rely on daily data and consider observed as well as modelled variance, whereas the simplicity and utility of the CMCI are demonstrated by only requiring annual data and observed variance to calculate.
... www.nature.com/scientificreports/ Changing temperature and precipitation patterns are likely to directly impact both the supply of and demand for outdoor recreation opportunities, although the impacts will also differ by activity and geographic region 3,22 . For example, previous research has found the impact of monthly weather averages on visitation to Australian parks varied by climate region 23 . ...
Daily weather affects total visitation to parks and protected areas, as well as visitors’ experiences. However, it is unknown if and how visitors change their spatial behavior within a park due to daily weather conditions. We investigated the impact of daily maximum temperature and precipitation on summer visitation patterns within 110 U.S. National Park Service units. We connected 489,061 geotagged Flickr photos to daily weather, as well as visitors’ elevation and distance to amenities (i.e., roads, waterbodies, parking areas, and buildings). We compared visitor behavior on cold, average, and hot days, and on days with precipitation compared to days without precipitation, across fourteen ecoregions within the continental U.S. Our results suggest daily weather impacts where visitors go within parks, and the effect of weather differs substantially by ecoregion. In most ecoregions, visitors stayed closer to infrastructure on rainy days. Temperature also affects visitors’ spatial behavior within parks, but there was not a consistent trend across ecoregions. Importantly, parks in some ecoregions contain more microclimates than others, which may allow visitors to adapt to unfavorable conditions. These findings suggest visitors’ spatial behavior in parks may change in the future due to the increasing frequency of hot summer days.
... The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at: https://www.emerald.com/insight/2514-9792.htm 2020; Hewer and Gough, 2018;Steiger et al., 2020). However, environmentally responsible behavior (ERB) of individuals can reduce the harmful impact and create positive effect on the natural surroundings (Barbaro and Pickett, 2016). ...
Purpose-The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of individuals' mindfulness and enjoyment of nature on environmentally responsible behavior (ERB) through mediating effect of sustainable attitude (SA).
Design/methodology/approach-Data were collected from residents of Antalya through convenience sampling. Four hundred and five residents participated in the study. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test the hypotheses.
Findings-Mindfulness was found effective for sustainable attitude of residents, but it has no significant direct effect to ERB. There is an indirect-only mediation effect of SA between mindfulness and ERB. Enjoyment of nature affects the sustainable attitude and ERB significantly and positively. The findings show that SA also offers a complementary mediation between enjoyment of nature and ERB.
Research limitations/implications-The study closes the void by investigating the psychological aspects of individuals among residents of a tourist hub to create sustainable attitude, acts and responsible behavior toward environment. In particular, as the predicting role of mindfulness on ERB was not significant, further studies needed to investigate the effects of mindfulness on the environmental behavior and attitude. Practical implications-Destination management organizations can consider more focusing on the environmentally responsible behavior of residents, which can play a pivotal role in attaining sustainable tourism development in destinations. By this regard, increasing the sustainable attitude and enjoyment of nature of residents through applying various campaigns would help policies and strategies aiming the conservation of the environment in the destination. Originality/value-Searching the impact of mindfulness on the SA and ERB and finding the indirect-only mediation effect of SA between mindfulness, ERB are novel contributions of this paper.
... Holidaymakers are changing their behavior patterns, looking for a variety of activities. At the same time, to compensate for the lack of snow, resorts have diversified the range of activities they offer, moving away from an exclusive focus on skiing (Hewer and Gough 2018, Perrin-Malterre 2015, Bourdeau 2009). However, unlike other destinations, France relied solely on skiing forgetting other activities (Odit France 2005). ...
In leisure spaces, particularly theme parks and museums, researchers and managers have long been using simulation tools to tackle the big issue associated with attractiveness, flow management. In this research, we present the management and planning perspective of a multi-agent simulation tool which models the behavior of skiers in a ski-area. This is the first tool able to simulate and compare management and planning scenarios as well as their impacts on the comfort of skiers, in particular ski-area waiting times. This paper aims to integrate multiple data sources to calibrate the simulation on a real case study. An original field survey of users during a week details the skier population. The first average skier speeds are calculated from GPS data on one ordinary day. The validation data are used to calibrate the parameters of the behavioral model. A demonstration of the simulation tool is conducted on the La Plagne ski-area, one of the largest in France. A test case, the construction of new housing in a station near the ski-area, is conducted. An addition of 1620 new skiers delays the skier average waiting time by 12 pourcents.
Introduction
Outdoor recreation and tourism providers, education programs, and outdoor recreation facilities are experiencing the effects of climate change and severe weather firsthand. This research assessed the impact that climate change was having on these operations in 2023.
Methods
Respondents from 127 outdoor organizations completed an online survey assessing the impacts of climate change and severe weather. Any outdoor operation that owed a duty of care to clients who they take outdoors or host at their facilities was invited to participate. This included outdoor tourism and recreation providers, outdoor education programs (both school and expedition based), groups involved in conservation work, and facilities such as parks, ski areas, and other outdoor recreation facilities. Respondents were from Canada's far north to Mexico, with 14% from further international locations.
Results
Climate change is having moderate to serious impacts on outdoor operations. Extreme heat and air quality were of primary concern, with storm event flooding, wildfires, snowpack, and changes in the ranges of disease-carrying insects top concerns. Fewer than half the operations have established criteria to aid in decision making, yet most had to revise operational plans in 2023 due to extreme weather.
Conclusions
There was pervasive uncertainty regarding decisions involving extreme heat and air quality, particularly the short-term health impacts on clients and the long-term health impacts on workers. There was uncertainty regarding trusted sources for guidance and the many overlapping or contradictory jurisdictional recommendations. Practical direction is required for operations and decision makers, as is further research specific to this sector's needs.
The tourism industry needs strategies to reduce emissions and hasten the achievement of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction targets. Using a case study approach, we estimated CO2 emissions related to park tourism in Yellowstone National Park (USA) generated from transit to and from the park, transit within the park, accommodations, and park operations. Results indicate tourism to Yellowstone National Park produces an estimated 1.03 megaton (1.03 billion kg) of CO2-equivalent emissions annually, with an average of 479 kg CO2 per visitor. Almost 90% of these emissions were attributable to transit to and from the destination, while 5% were from transit within the park, 4% from overnight accommodations, and about 1% from other park operations (e.g., visitor centers, museums, shops, restaurants, etc.). Visitors who fly only made up about 35% of all visitors, but produced 72% of the emissions related to transit to and from the park. Future scenarios that alter transit to and from the park can reduce emissions the most; this includes a greater proportion of local or regional visitors, fewer visitors flying, and increased fuel efficiency of vehicles. The method developed in this work, and applied specifically to Yellowstone National Park, can be adopted elsewhere and used to help decision makers evaluate the effectiveness of potential emission reduction strategies.
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to review empirical studies on the relationship between climate change and tourism for a period of 15 years, from 2007 to 2021. The main variables analyzed were research subjects, topics and economic development levels.
Design/methodology/approach
Literature review was used to analyze articles published on climate change and tourism from 2007 to 2021. A staged article selection process was followed using the Scopus database. Statistical comparison tests found differences among sub-groupings of articles.
Findings
The research articles on climate change and tourism continued their upward trajectory until 2021. The 893 articles analyzed were published in 254 different journals, with over 60% from non-tourism or cross-disciplinary journals. Significant differences were found by time period and between developed and developing countries.
Research limitations/implications
Gaps in the literature were detected with respect to policy analysis and it was concluded that the research for developing nations remains insufficient. More research should be encouraged to focus on the situation and solutions to climate change and tourism in developing countries. Additional research is also needed on biodiversity declines in destinations because of climate change.
Originality/value
This research dealt exclusively with empirical research studies in academic articles. It compared results across three different time periods and between developing and developed countries. Statistical tests supported the comparisons.
Detailed information on seasonal snow cover and depth is essential to the understanding of snow processes, operational forecasting, and as input for hydrological models. Recent advances in unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) and structure from motion (SfM) techniques have enabled low-cost monitoring of spatial snow depth distribution in resolutions up to a few centimeters. Here, we study the spatiotemporal variability of snow depth and interactions between snow and vegetation in different subarctic landscapes consisting of a mosaic of conifer forest, mixed forest, transitional woodland/shrub, and peatland areas. To determine the spatiotemporal variability of snow depth, we used high-resolution (50 cm) snow depth maps generated from repeated UAS-SfM surveys in the winter of 2018/2019 and a snow-free bare ground survey after snowmelt. Due to poor sub-canopy penetration with the UAS-SfM method, tree masks were utilized to remove canopy areas and the area (36 cm) immediately next to the canopy before analysis. Snow depth maps were compared to the in-situ snow course and a single-point continuous ultrasonic snow depth measurement. Based on the results, the difference between the UAS-SfM survey median snow depth and single-point measurement increased for all land cover types during the snow season, from +5 cm at the beginning of the accumulation to -16 cm in coniferous forests and -32 cm in peatland during the melt period. This highlights the poor representation of point measurements even on the sub-catchment scale. The high-resolution snow depth maps agreed well with the snow course measurement, but the spatial extent and resolution of maps were substantially higher. The snow depth variability (5–95 percentiles) within different land cover types increased from 17 cm to 42 cm in peatlands and from 33 cm to 49 cm in the coniferous forest from the beginning of the snow accumulation to the melt period. Both the median snow depth and its variability were found to increase with canopy density; this increase was greatest in the conifer forest area, followed by mixed forest, transitional woodland/shrub, and open peatlands. Using the high spatial resolution data, we found a systematic increase (2–20 cm), then a decline of snow depth near the canopy with increasing distance (from 1 m to 2.5 m) of the peak value through the snow season. This study highlights the potential of the UAS-SfM in high-resolution monitoring of snow depth in multiple land cover types and snow-vegetation interactions in subarctic and remote areas where field data is not available.
This paper explores the impacts that the New Zealand government's lockdown measures to contain the COVID-19 virus during 2020 had on the activity and experiences of outdoor recreationists in New Zealand. Concepts related to coping strategies such as rationalisation, displacement and substitution, have been used frequently to explain the behavioural changes and processes involved in outdoor recreation when disruptions arise such as crowding and recreational conflict. However, such concepts have rarely been applied to rapid on-set disruptors such as pandemics. This paper adopts coping strategy theory to help document the strategies adopted by outdoor recreationists in response to the national lockdown in 2020. Based on a qualitative analysis of twenty interviews with outdoor recreationists in New Zealand, various coping mechanisms such as temporal, activity, and spatial displacement are identified. These include increased appreciation for outdoor settings, discovery of local activities and microadventures, and increased walking activity across the restricted, reaction and reset periods. Outdoor recreation coping strategies may contribute to increased resilience to disruptive and rapid on-set events and enhance understanding of how recreationists respond and adapt to disruption. This research presents a unique insight of coping strategies adopted in response to the national lockdown that may have implications for participation and management of outdoor recreation in New Zealand in the coming years. This paper also offers a new perspective on the behaviourist tradition in the field of outdoor recreation which may be fruitful for future research examining rapid on-set disruptions and crises.
Türkiye, alternatif turizm seçenekleri bakımından bünyesinde çok çeşitli zenginliklere sahip özel destinasyonların yer aldığı bir ülkedir. Ülke, coğrafi konumunun avantajları sayesinde sadece deniz-kum- güneş turizmi değil farklı turizm türlerinin de geliştirilebileceği doğal fırsatlara sahiptir. Bu fırsatları değerlendirmek adına hem yerel, hem ulusal, hem de uluslar arası düzeyde sektörün aktörleri yoğun çaba harcanmaktadırlar. İçinde böylesine çeşitlilik ve yoğun çabaların söz konusu olduğu turizm türlerinden biri de kış turizmidir. Bir master plan eşliğinde gelişen ve 2012 kışından itibaren hizmete sunulan Erciyes Kış Sporları ve Turizm Merkezi de, bugün Türkiye’nin en büyük ve düzenli kış turizm bölgelerinden birisi haline gelmiştir. Bölgedeki söz konusu değişimin temel etkeni olan Erciyes Kış Sporları ve Turizm Merkezi, Kayseri’yi de bir turizm şehrine dönüştürme; dolayısıyla da hem tesis yatırımcıları hem de hizmet sektörü için ekonomik fırsatlar oluşturma potansiyelini barındırmaktadır. Bir kış destinasyonu olarak sahip olduğu turistik özellikleriyle artık yabancı turistlerin tercih ettiği ve en az bir haftalık konaklama yaptığı Erciyes Kış Sporları ve Turizm Merkezi, Kayseri'ye başta ekonomik olmak üzere sosyal, kültürel ve şehir markalaşması açısından çok önemli katkılar sağlamaktadır. Bu sebeple, Erciyes Kış Sporları ve Turizm Merkezine yönelik yapılan bu çalışmanın sonuçları ve yapılan değerlendirmeler destinasyonlarda kış turizminin geliştirilmesinde kış sporları ve turizm merkezlerinin önemini ortaya koymakta ve ziyaretçilere ve sektör temsilcilerine yönelik öneriler ortaya koymaktadır.
Cultural ecosystem services represent nonmaterial benefits people derive from the environment; these benefits include outdoor recreation opportunities. Changes in climatic conditions are likely to shift the spatial and temporal demand for recreational ecosystem services. To date, little is known about the magnitude and spatial variability in these shifts across large geographic extents. We use 14 years of geotagged social media data to explore how the climatological mean of maximum temperature affects the demand for recreational ecosystem services by season across public lands in the continental United States. We also investigate how the demand for recreational ecosystem services on public lands may change by 2050 under two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Across all public lands in the continental U.S., demand for recreational ecosystem services is expected to decrease 18% by 2050 under RCP 4.5 in the summer, but increase 12% in the winter and 5% in the spring, with no significant changes in the fall. There is substantial variation in the magnitude of projected changes by region. In the spring and fall, some regions are likely to see an increase in the demand for recreational ecosystem services (e.g., Arkansas-Rio Grande-Texas-Gulf), while others will see declines (e.g., South Atlantic Gulf, California Great Basin). Our findings suggest the total demand for recreational ecosystem services across the continental U.S. is expected to decline under warming temperatures. However, there is a large amount of variation in where, when, and by how much, demand will change. The peak season for visiting public lands is likely to lengthen in the continental U.S. as the climate continues to warm, with demand declining in the summer and growing in the off-season.
One of the major challenges’ tourism faces today is climate change, which inevitably involves adjusting many destinations and tourists to new scenarios. For that, a literature review about the link between tourism and climate is mandatory. Therefore, the present paper aims to establish the evolution of the relationship between tourism and climate, since relevant studies were published from 1940 to 2020. A bibliometric analysis using qualitative and quantitative methods were used for measuring the coverage ratio of tourism and climate (change) in spatial-temporal studies. Web of Science (WoS) and
Scopus databases were used to carry out an in-depth analysis based on 889 publications related to tourism climatology. These were synthesized in attributes and codes(e.g. location, journal name, geographic level, methods of analysis, results, implications, and trends). It is true that in the context of tourism research, themes and assumptions give or take a few exceptions, remain constant. Most of the 889 studies analyzed focused on climatological hotspots, such as impacts of climate change on tourism (28.4%) and urban and bioclimatic comfort of tourists in affected destinations (13.2%), with a lower coverage of tourism-related topics such as policies of climate change in tourism (6.1%) or strategies and concrete options to re-enable tourist destinations for climate change (0.2%). The research methods, procedures and results can contribute to advance tourism climatology to a new phase of theoretical and practical application for tourism planning.
The development of technology, climate change as well as the cultural and social changes cause people to change their behavior, modify priorities and adapt to the new situation. Effectiveness and competitiveness, therefore, require up-to-date information on the market participants and factors affecting their behavior. As such, the aim of this article is to illustrate the impact of the weather conditions on participants’ attendance at various urban outdoor events, crucial for a leisure market. The study presents the relationship between the number of residents and tourists visits at the St. Dominic’s Fair in Gdańsk during individual days of the event and the weather conditions (temperature, precipitation, and sunlight intensity). As one of the data illustration methods, mobile phone-base-station logs were used to analyze consumer behavior. The study proved varying behavior of the residents and the tourists participating in the same event under different weather conditions emphasize these two diverse target markets’ complementarities.
The tourism comprehensive climate comfort index (TCCI) was used to evaluate the tourism climate comfort in Henan Province in the last 61 years, and its future development trend is predicted. The results showed that the temporal variation of the TCCI had a “double peak” type (monthly variation), and an overall comfort improvement trend (interannual variation). The change of tourism climate comfort days was similar to the change of the index, especially in the months with a low comfort level. In space, the distribution of the TCCI gradually increased from northeast to southwest, and the area with a high comfort level also increased over time. Meanwhile, it also showed the spatial distribution of months with a low comfort level, which provides reliable information for tourists to use when choosing tourist destinations across all periods of the year. The TCCI was classified by hierarchical classification, and principal components were extracted to explore the main climate factors controlling different types of TCCIs and the relationship between them, and large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability. According to the temporal change trend and correlation, the long-term change trend of tourism climate comfort was predicted, which will provide a scientific basis for tourism planners to choose tourist destinations.
Understanding geospatial impacts of multi-sourced drivers on the tourism industry is of great significance for formulating tourism development policies tailored to regional-specific needs. To date, no research in China has explored the combined impacts of socioeconomic and environmental drivers on city-level tourism from a spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective. We collected the total tourism revenue indicator and 30 potential influencing factors from 343 cities across China during 2008–2017. Three mainstream regressions and an emerging local spatiotemporal regression named the Bayesian spatiotemporally varying coefficients (Bayesian STVC) model were constructed to investigate the global-scale stationary and local-scale spatiotemporal nonstationary relationships between city-level tourism and various vital drivers. The Bayesian STVC model achieved the best model performance. Globally, eight socioeconomic and environmental factors, average wage (coefficient: 0.47, 95% credible intervals: 0.43–0.51), employed population (−0.14, −0.17–−0.11), GDP per capita (0.47, 0.42–0.52), population density (0.21, 0.16–0.27), night-time light index (−0.01, −0.08–0.05), slope (0.10, 0.06–0.14), vegetation index (0.66, 0.63–0.70), and road network density (0.34, 0.29–0.38), were identified to have nonlinear effects on tourism. Temporally, the main drivers might have gradually changed from the local macro-economic level, population density, and natural environment conditions to the individual economic level over the last decade. Spatially, city-specific dynamic maps of tourism development and geographically clustered influencing maps for eight drivers were produced. In 2017, China formed four significant city-level tourism industry clusters (hot spots, 90% confidence), the locations of which coincide with China’s top four urban agglomerations. Our local spatiotemporal analysis framework for geographical tourism data is expected to provide insights into adjusting regional measures to local conditions and temporal variations in broader social and natural sciences.
Climatic factors and global warming have great impacts on the tourists' behaviors. The goal of this study is to explore how they affect the total number of visitors, and the Huisun National Forest Park (HNFP) in Taiwan was selected as the research site. This study comprehensively evaluated the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the total number of visitors. Regression models were built to examine variations in the total number of visitors, including potential future climate scenarios in four global warming scenarios, and a questionnaire survey was conducted to investigate tourists' behaviors. The majority of the respondents were male, aged 17–24 years, and students with an educational level of (junior) college. The results show that climate change may not decrease on the total number of visitors to HNFP if only temperature and precipitation variations are considered. The climate-induced factors also have less effects on the travel intention for the tourists who have not visited. The visitors were most concerned about landscape transformation under climate change. Therefore, the managers should pay more attention to the conservation and maintenance of the area's landscapes to avoid reduced revisit intention and frequency. Since the total number of visitors is expected to increase, the HNFP managers need to modify the policies accordingly. The outcomes can be used for developing strategies in response to climate change.
Frequency of flash floods and droughts in the Mediterranean climate zone is expected to rise in the coming years due to change of its climate. The assessment of the climate change impact at a basin scale is essential for developing mitigation and adaptation plans. This study analyses the variation of the hydrologic regime of a small Mediterranean river (the Kalloni river in Lesvos Island, Greece) by the examination of possible future climate change scenarios. The hydrologic response of the basin was simulated based on Hydrologic Modeling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS). Weather Generator version 6 from the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS-WG 6.0) was utilized to forecast climate data from 2021 to 2080. These forecasted climate data were then assigned as weather inputs to HEC-HMS to downscale the climate predictions of five large-scale general circulation models (GCMs) for three possible emission scenarios (such as RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). The alteration of the Kalloni hydrologic regime is evaluated by comparing GCMs based estimates of future streamflow and evapotranspiration with business as usual (BaU) scenario. Variation was noted in seasonal and in annual scale forecasting of long-term average discharges, which show increasing trend in autumn and decreasing in summer and there is observed a general upward trend of actual evapotranspiration losses.
The development of winter tourism is very important in terms of sports and health. The progress and development of this area is very important for the spread of winter sports in our country and the training of skilled athletes in these kinds of sports.
One of the main topics of this study is to reveal the potential of winter tourism in Azerbaijan. Our economic regions such as Guba-Khachmaz and Sheki-Zagatala are potential centers for winter tourism in Azerbaijan. In this research, it is aimed to evaluate the current potential of Şhahdag and Tufandag winter tourism facilities and to make suggestions for being an international attraction point. Therefore, in this article, the number of tourists, tourism revenues, working days, current status and problems of Shahdag and Tufandag winter - summer tourism centers are examined.
In the sections of the research, information about winter tourism and tourism potential has been proposed. The potential of winter tourism has been demonstrated and the opportunities it has been investigated. In the last part of the study, SWOT analysis was conducted in line with the participants' opinions and screening lists of the mentioned strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats were created. Although Azerbaijan is suitable for development in terms of winter tourism, strategies and policies should be implemented in this regard.
In order to achieve sustainable tourism in our country, there is a need to create a winter tourism base and eliminate the seasonal concept. To achieve this goal, Shahdag has been established in Gusar region since 2012, and Tufandag Winter and Summer Tourism Complex in Gabala District since 2014. In the first stage, all investments were made by the state. Roads, electricity, gas, water lines, infrastructure, and the first hotel were created by the government.
“Shahdag” Tourism Center CJSC (Gusar) operates with offering about 17 kms of slope and 9 booths for approximately 120 days a year, and Tufandag Winter-Summer Tourism Recreation Complex (Gabala) operates with 15 km slope and 5 booths about 110 days. Also, considering the ease of access to tourist facilities is one of the major factors contributing to the development of winter tourism, the tourists from the countries of the region can enjoy winter charter flights and weekends using only charter flights and flights at a reasonable cost of 25 km from the nearest airport. it is known that it is a good choice.
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Looking at statistical data, we can see an increase in the percentage of foreign tourists in the winter season from 2012 to 2018. The percentage of skiers was 40% between 2015 and 2017. Most of the tourists coming to these centers in 2014-2015 are from the UK, Russia in 2015-2017, and the UAE in 2017-2018. There are problems in attracting tourists for winter tourism in the main tourist destination area - Gakh, Gabala, Guba-Gusar and Sheki. Road closures, lack of gas, water and electricity, etc. For this reason, tourists travel to Georgia and Turkey at a lower cost. He overall prices of holiday packages in Azerbaijan are higher than in Georgia and Dubai.
In the article, the problems that hinder the development of winter tourism were identified and solutions were explored.
Key words: Winter tourism, Azerbaijan, SWOT analysis, Strategic RoadMap, Shahdag winter and summer tourism center, Tufandag winter and summer tourism center
Abstract: This study uses a multi-year temporal climate analogue approach to explore zoo visitor
responses to seasonal climatic anomalies and assess the impacts of projected climate change on
zoo visitation in Toronto, Canada. A new method for selecting a representative weather station
was introduced which ranks surrounding stations based on “climatic distance” rather than physical
distance alone. Two years representing anomalously warm temperature conditions and two years
representing climatically normal temperature conditions were identified for each season from within
the study period from 1999 to 2015. Two years representing anomalously wet precipitation conditions
and two years representing anomalously dry precipitation conditions were also identified. F-tests
and t-tests were employed to determine if the apparent differences in zoo visitation between the
temperature and precipitation paired groupings were statistically significant. A “selective ensemble”
of seasonal Global Climate Model (GCM) output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change Fifth Assessment Report was used to determine when these anomalous temperature and
precipitation conditions may become the norm in the future. When anomalously warm winters
and springs occurred within the historical record, total zoo visitation in those seasons increased
significantly. Inversely, when anomalously warm summers occurred, total summer season zoo
visitation decreased significantly. Temperature anomalies in the autumn season did not result in
any significant differences in total autumn season zoo visitation. Finally, apart from in the spring
season, there were no significant differences in total zoo visitation between anomalously wet and
dry seasons.
Keywords: tourism climatology; seasonal climatic anomalies; temporal climate analogue; climate
change impacts; outdoor recreation and tourism; zoo visitation
Historical park visitation and weather data, taken at the daily time scale from 2000 to 2009 for Pinery Provincial Park in southern Ontario (Canada), were analysed as an objective measure of the weather sensitivity, temperature thresholds, and potential impacts of projected climate change for park visitation. Three seasonal weather-visitation models were constructed using multivariable linear regression (peak, shoulder, off-season). To account for both natural and institutional seasonality, the weather-visitation models included both climatic (temperature, precipitation) and social (weekends, holidays) variables, which demonstrated equably comparable effects on visitation across the three models. Critical temperature thresholds were identified for each season using one-way analysis of variance to determine the range of temperatures within which the threshold was evident; the specific degree of temperature associated with the threshold was identified within the seasonal regression models. Temperatures over 33 °C during the peak season and over 29 °C during the shoulder season indicated critical thresholds at which point conditions that were ‘too hot’ for some caused a decline in visitation. Furthermore, temperatures below 11 °C indicated another critical threshold, where conditions were ‘too cold’ for most and therefore park visitation was less sensitive to temperature variability below this threshold. A partial sensitivity analysis for the impact of a warmer, wetter climate on park visitation was conducted, illustrating the effect of a 1 °C to 5 °C warming in maximum temperatures, coupled with a 5% to 15% increase in total precipitation. In response to projected climate change, the weather-visitation models suggested that for each additional degree of warming experienced, despite the negative effects of increasing precipitation and more frequent heat extremes, annual park visitation could increase by 3.1%, annually. The projected increase in park visitation as a result of rising temperatures was mainly associated with shoulder season visitation, with only minor increases in peak season visitation.
Based on a case study of the Toronto Zoo (Canada), multivariate regression analysis, involving both climatic and social variables, was employed to assess the relationship between daily weather and visitation. Zoo visitation was most sensitive to weather variability during the shoulder season, followed by the off-season and, then, the peak season. Temperature was the most influential weather variable in relation to zoo visitation, followed by precipitation and, then, wind speed. The intensity and direction of the social and climatic variables varied between seasons. Temperatures exceeding 26 °C during the shoulder season and 28 °C during the peak season suggested a behavioural threshold associated with zoo visitation, with conditions becoming too warm for certain segments of the zoo visitor market, causing visitor numbers to decline. Even light amounts of precipitation caused average visitor numbers to decline by nearly 50 %. Increasing wind speeds also demonstrated a negative influence on zoo visitation.
Weather and climate have been widely recognised as having an important influence on tourism and recreational activities. However, the nature of these relationships varies depending on the type, timing and location of these activities. Climate change is expected to have considerable and diverse impacts on recreation and tourism. Nonetheless, the potential impact of climate change on zoo visitation has yet to be assessed in a scientific manner. This case study begins by establishing the baseline conditions and statistical relationship between weather and zoo visitation in Toronto, Canada. Regression analysis, relying on historical weather and visitation data, measured at the daily time scale, formed the basis for this analysis. Climate change projections relied on output produced by Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2013 Fifth Assessment Report, ranked and selected using the herein defined Selective Ensemble Approach. This seasonal GCM output was then used to inform daily, local, climate change scenarios, generated using Statistical Down-Scaling Model Version 5.2. A series of seasonal models were then used to assess the impact of projected climate change on zoo visitation. While accounting for the negative effects of precipitation and extreme heat, the models suggested that annual visitation to the zoo will likely increase over the course of the 21st century due to projected climate change: from +8% in the 2020s to +18% by the 2080s, for the least change scenario; and from +8% in the 2020s to +34% in the 2080s, for the greatest change scenario. The majority of the positive impact of projected climate change on zoo visitation in Toronto will likely occur in the shoulder season (spring and fall); with only moderate increases in the off season (winter) and potentially negative impacts associated with the peak season (summer), especially if warming exceeds 3.5 °C.
Weather events have the potential to greatly impact business operations and profitability, especially in outdoor-oriented economic sectors such as Tourism, Recreation, and Leisure (TRL). Although a substantive body of work focuses on the macroscale impacts of climate change, less is known about how daily weather events influence attendance decisions, particularly relating to the physiological thermal comfort levels of each visitor. To address this imbalance, this paper focuses on ambient thermal environments and visitor behavior at the Phoenix and Atlanta zoos. Daily visitor attendances at each zoo from September 2001 to June 2011, were paired with the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) to help measure the thermal conditions most likely experienced by zoo visitors. PET was calculated using hourly atmospheric variables of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and cloud cover from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. at each zoological park location and then classified based on thermal comfort categories established by the American Society of Heating and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE). The major findings suggested that in both Phoenix and Atlanta, optimal thermal regimes for peak attendance occurred within “slightly warm” and “warm” PET-based thermal categories. Additionally, visitors seemed to be averse to the most commonly occurring thermal extreme since visitors appeared to avoid the zoo on excessively hot days in Phoenix and excessively cold days in Atlanta. Finally, changes in the daily weather impacted visitor attendance as both zoos experienced peak attendance on days with dynamic changes in the thermal regimes and depressed attendances on days with stagnant thermal regimes. Building a better understanding of how weather events impact visitor demand can help improve our assessments of the potential impacts future climate change may have on tourism.
The importance of weather for tourism is now widely recognized. However, no research has so far addressed weather events from retrospective viewpoints, and, in particular, the role of "extreme" events in longer-term holiday memories. To better understand the character of ex post weather experiences and their importance in destination image perceptions and future travel planning behavior, this exploratory study addressed a sample of 50 tourists from three globally important source markets: Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Results indicate that weather events do not dominate long-term memories of tourist experiences. Yet, weather events are important in shaping destination image, with "rain" being the single most important weather variable negatively influencing perceptions. Results also suggest that weather events perceived as extreme can involve considerable emotions. The study of ex post traveler memories consequently makes a valuable contribution to the understanding of the complexity of "extreme weather" events for tourist demand responses.
Key Messages
Spatial patterns of skiers may vary as a result of snow conditions.
This study examined where and how far skiers in Ontario (Canada) are willing to travel in response to local lack of snow.
Majority of respondents (59–60%) would travel to five key resorts in Ontario; an additional 11–15% of respondents opted to travel to Quebec or the state of New York.
Purpose – This paper reviews published English literature on tourism adaptation to climate change. Climate change remains a challenge in the 21st centaury and beyond. Climate sensitive industries like tourism are vulnerable to climate change. It is for this reason that tourism researchers have continued to explore the relationship between tourism and climate change and further explored response strategies among tourism stakeholders. Tourism research on climate change adaptation may be traces way back in the 1960s. However, focused research on climate change and tourism has emerged in the last 15 years.
Design – This review maps tourism adaptation knowledge domains between early 1960s and 2014.
Methodology – This paper rely on secondary English published tourism literature to aid the review
Findings – Findings indicate that tourism adaptation literature have advanced under five thematic areas prior 2010 to include: Business adaptation; Consumer adaptation, Destination Adaptation; adaptation Policy and; Frameworks for adaptation. However, after 2010 a new theme on ‘sustainable adaptation’ is tourism has emerged and it is gaining attention among tourism researchers
Originality – The originality of this paper is that the paper is the first paper in tourism that has identified sustainable adaptation as a new emerging thematic area in tourism and climate change adaptation research. The paper notes an emergence of interest on sustainable adaptation knowledge domain despite lack of clarity on what is sustainable adaptation within tourism research. It is therefore important for researchers to amicably define the term sustainable
adaptation to enable comparative studies and discourse in the area.
The relationship between tourism and changing climate has been discussed and studied for a relatively long time in tourism research. Over the past 15 years, more focused studies have begun to appear, and especially recently, the issue of adaptation has been emphasised as an urgent research need in tourism and climate change studies. This paper is based on a systematic review of the tourism and adaptation literature prior to 2012. It discusses adaptation challenges, the dimensions of vulnerability in a tourism context and the implications of such studies on communities. By dividing the current adaptation studies into business; consumer; destination; and policy- and framework-focused theme areas and traditions, the paper concludes that adaptation studies in tourism have so far had a limited focus on community perceptions, which in general has been an area of major interest in tourism research. More emphasis on community-based research in relation to tourism and climate change allows highly contextual adaptation challenges to be met in a more sustainable way.
Tourism in the Hudson Bay region of central northern Canada generally is associated with non-consumptive forms of nature-based activities (such as polar bear viewing). However, the region has experienced variable growth in the cruise sector in recent years. This paper examines patterns of cruise activity in all subregions of the Hudson Bay region during three cruise seasons (2006, 2008, and 2009) and mainly reveals a pattern of decline. Since the prevalence of sea ice is an important part of visitor experiences of polar cruises, we examine sea ice change and occurrence of icebergs in the Hudson Bay region. Our sea ice analysis suggests that the length of the navigable shipping season is increasing in this region, which may facilitate both earlier and later shipping. But in terms of cruise traffic, we suggest that the demise of ice coverage signals a possible decline in cruise activity in most of the Hudson Bay region because ice-supported wildlife may shift north with the diminishing ice regime. Given the possible environmental and socio-cultural implications of changing cruise activity patterns in the Arctic and the absence of broad-scale monitoring and surveillance of the industry, use of these available data sources is vital to building a clearer picture.
The Olympic Winter Games (OWG) stands as a symbol of international cross-cultural exchange through elite-level sport. As a mega-event with a significant reliance on a specific range of weather conditions for outdoor competitions, the OWG have developed several technologies and strategies to manage weather risk. Can these climatic adaptations cope with future climate change? Based on an analysis of two key climate indicators (probability of a minimum temperature of ≤0°C, and probability of a snow depth of ≥30 centimetres with advanced snowmaking capacity), this paper examines how projected changes to climate will impact the ability of the 19 previous host cities/regions to provide suitable conditions for outdoor competitions in the future. The results indicate that while the 19 former OWG hosts all have a suitable climate in the 1981–2010 period, only 11 or 10 (low–high-emission scenarios) remain climatically suitable in the 2050s, with as few as 6 in the high-emission scenario of the 2080s. The analysis reveals that climate change has important implications for the future geography of OWG host cities/regions as well as broader implications for participation in winter sport.
The academic debate on tourism and climate change has expanded considerably in the last few years. This paper's narrative and systematic review of 459 English-language academic publications (1986 to 2012) synthesises the research on tourism and climate change, identifies key trends and social networks, and provides a critique for further discussion in this evolving knowledge domain. The analysis shows that the size of the field has grown, that research includes multiple dimensions (e.g., climate impacts, adaptation, mitigation, and policy), and that studies have become more integrative and critical. The co-authorship network is characterised by a core, which is disconnected from a more fragmented periphery, whereby the “centre of gravity” comprises a relatively small number of researchers who tend to co-author a large number of publications. The paper concludes that, overall, research on tourism and climate change has developed into a knowledge domain in its own right.
This paper explores perceptions of ski-tourism representatives and other regional stakeholders about climate change impacts, limits to tourism development and adaptation strategies in the Australian Alps. This area faces rising temperatures, declining rain and snow falls, and shorter skiing seasons. Open-ended interviews examined the perceptions, plans and attitudes of the ski industry and those of conservation managers, local government officials and Australian researchers into tourism and/or climate change effects in the Australian Alps. All interviewees accepted climate change was a reality; several, however, questioned the worst-case scenarios. The major tourism-related adaptation strategies were snowmaking and diversifying to year-round tourism; the success of these strategies will vary according to individual resorts’ snowmaking capacity and potential summer tourism revenue. Currently non-snow-based tourism revenue is worth only approximately 30% of winter revenue. Social resistance to increased water and electricity use for snowmaking emerged as an important issue. Competition for water, including the needs of ecosystems, agriculture and fire protection in this summer-fire-prone region, and fire management issues, is a key concern. Current conflicts between the ski industry and other stakeholders over climate change adaptation call for a collaborative adaptation and change policy within the Australian Alps.
Tourism is a climate-dependent industry, and many destinations owe their popularity to their pleasant climates during traditional holiday seasons. This article explores the potential implications of climate change for global tourism, with special emphasis on seasonality. Combination of two climate change scenarios with the Tourism Climatic Index reveals that the locations of climatically ideal tourism conditions are likely to shift poleward under projected climate change. Whereas destinations such as the Mediterranean may see shifts in their peak seasons from summer months to current shoulder periods, regions in higher latitudes are likely to experience a lengthening of their summer seasons. The effects of these changes will depend greatly on the flexibility demonstrated by institutions and tourists as they react to climate change, with substantial implications for both spatial and temporal redistribution of tourism activities. The reader is referred to http://www.carrs.msu.edu/Main/People/faculty%20bios/extra/nicho210- journal.pdf to view the full series of color maps accompanying these analyses.
This paper explains the evolution of research into tourism and climate change, illustrating how early work concentrated on the impact of climate change on tourism, whereas current work also explores the impact of tourism on climate change. It goes on to elaborate a research agenda on both topics. The need to open up tourism research to other fields and professional worlds – such as climatology, the International Panel on Climate Change and transport research – is stressed, as is the need to organise the research community on a global basis, with more collaborative and comparative research.
The sustainability of skiing tourism has been repeatedly identified as vulnerable to global climate change. Earlier research, however, did not fully consider snowmaking as an adaptation strategy, which is integral to the ski industry in eastern North America. This study examines how it reduces the vulnerability of ski areas to climate change in six study areas by developing a model to assess the impact of climate change on season length, probability of operations during critical tourism periods, snowmaking costs, and water requirements. It suggests that in the 2020s, even the warmest climate change scenario poses only a minor risk to four of the six ski areas. The reassessment for the 2050s period found that only the warmest scenario would jeopardise the sustainability of three of the ski areas examined. The confluence of climatic changes and other non-climate business factors will advantage certain ski areas and likely result in further contraction and consolidation in this regional ski market.
Major impacts of climate change have been projected for tourism in Europe. Typically, these projections took general tourism activities such as sight-seeing and their climate requirements as their point of reference. The purpose of this study is to reassess the impact of climate change, by looking specifically at beach tourism in summer, a crucial market segment in Europe and more specifically in the Mediterranean. As beach tourism requires relatively high temperatures, relatively modest shifts in attractiveness are found. With respect to climate, the Mediterranean is likely to remain Europe's prime region for summer-time beach tourism for at least the next 50 years. Coastal managers in Mediterranean destinations are advised to focus some of their attention on other climate change impacts such as sea-level rise or water availability, and include environmental quality and diversification of activities in their deliberations. In non-Mediterranean regions, a promising strategy may be to focus on short- and medium-distance visitors who can take advantage of the new opportunities for beach tourism, and to explore the merits of seasonal climate forecasting.
Coastal and marine environments are among the most popular areas for outdoor recreation and tourism. Coastal areas have also been identified as the most vulnerable to climate change, for example as a result of extreme events and sea-level rise. It will be increasingly important for coastal tourism destination managers to understand their vulnerability to climatic changes and to devise appropriate adaptation. This paper presents a five-step vulnerability assessment methodology for tourism in coastal areas. The five steps include (1) system analysis, (2) identification of activity and hazard sub-systems, (3) vulnerability assessments for the different sub-systems at risk, (4) integration for the destination as a whole and scenario analysis and (5) communication. The framework is illustrated by an example of how it might be applied to Fiji. The paper concludes that a consistent methodology, like the one proposed, will facilitate vulnerability assessments in a range of coastal destinations, allow comparison to be made of vulnerabilities across different situations, provide a basis for more research into specific adaptation measures and assist destinations to develop a more sustainable tourism industry.
Climate has a strong influence on the tourism and recreation sector and in some regions represents the natural resource on which the tourism industry is predicated. There has been little consideration of how climate change might affect the tourism climate resource or how such changes could alter the competitive relationships between tourism destinations. This study used a modified version of Mieczkowski's (1985) 'tourism climate index' (TCI) to explore the impact of projected climate change on the tourism climate resource of a sample of tourism destinations in North America. Conceptual seasonal tourism climate distributions are defined and the current tourism climate index scores of 17 North American cities calculated. All Canadian cities had a 'summer-peak' distribution. Cities in the southern US displayed either a 'winter-peak' or bimodal spring-autumn peak distribution. Los Angeles was the only city examined to approximate a year-round optimal tourism climate distribution. Seasonal tourism climate index scores are then compared with seasonal accommodation costs at five locations, in order to determine whether the tourism climate index reflects tourism demand. Results at each location were positive. Climate change scenarios were constructed from two general circulation models (CGCM2 and HadCM2) for the 2050s and 2080s and integrated into the tourism climate index of eight Canadian cities. The cumulative annual TCI score improved for all of the cities. Seasonally, the impact of climate change varied by location. Seasonal TCI rating improved in each season for cities in western Canada (Calgary, Vancouver and Yellowknife), while the TCI rating declined in the key summer tourism months of July and August in eastern Canada (Toronto and Montreal). As the first empirical assessment of the implications of climate change for the tourism climate resource, this investigation also raises questions for future inquiry.
This paper examines the paradoxical issues surrounding long-distance tourism to view polar bears, a form of tourism which is disproportionately (on a per capita basis) responsible for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions that are negatively affecting survival chances of the species. It also notes that the phenomenon of “last chance tourism” is influencing more tourists to visit the region. The paper describes and explains the evidence that climate change is causing a substantial reduction in sea ice, vital for Arctic wildlife species survival, particularly mega fauna, such as polar bears. Churchill, Canada is one of the few places where tourists can easily view polar bears. A total of 334 on-site tourist surveys and 18 in-depth interviews were conducted to help evaluate tourist perceptions of climate change and to estimate their GHG emissions related to polar bear viewing tourism. Polar bear viewing tourists perceive climate change to be negatively impacting polar bears but do not necessarily understand how they themselves contribute to GHG emissions, or understand offsetting possibilities. The polar bear viewing industry is estimated to contribute 20,892 t/CO2 per season. Mitigation strategies, including reduction and offsetting programs are outlined.
Tourism is a major global economic sector that is undergoing tremendous growth in emerging economies and is often touted as salient for development and poverty alleviation in developing countries. Tourism is recognized as a highly climate‐sensitive sector, one that is also strongly influenced by environmental and socioeconomic change influenced by climate change, and is also a growing contributor to anthropogenic climate change. This article outlines the complex interrelationships between climate change and the multiple components of the international tourism system. Five focal themes that have developed within the literature on the consequences of climate change for tourism are then critically reviewed: climatic change and temporal and geographic shifts in tourism demand, climate‐induced environmental change and destination competitiveness within three major market segments (winter sports tourism, coastal tourism, and nature‐based tourism), and mitigation policy developments and future tourist mobility. The review highlights the differential vulnerability of tourism destinations and that the resultant changes in competitiveness and sustainability will transform some international tourism markets. Feedbacks throughout the tourism system mean that all destinations will need to adapt to the risks and opportunities posed by climate change and climate policy. While notable progress has been made in the last decade, a number of important knowledge gaps in each of the major impact areas, key regional knowledge gaps, and both tourist and tourism operator perceptions of climate change risks and adaptive capacity indicate that the tourism sector is not currently well prepared for the challenges of climate change. WIREs Clim Change 2012. doi: 10.1002/wcc.165
This article is categorized under: Climate and Development > Decoupling Emissions from Development
Festivals and special events serve as important attractors for tourists and provide unique experiences for attendees. These events may also provide both tangible and intangible benefits for communities. Most of the studies dealing with festivals and events have focused on either understanding attendees' behavior or delineating the economic impacts of visitation upon communities in which such events are held. Sporadic attention has also been paid to such issues as sponsorship, volunteerism, the role of community involvement in staging events, and perceptions of events and festivals. Little, if any, research has been done to examine how different festival organizers perceive the motivation for attending festivals and events. Thus, the purpose of this study is to solicit the organizers' perception of the attendees' motivations and to compare these results with those of attendees from literature. The study concludes with management and marketing implications for festival and event organizers.
The threat that climate change impacts pose to rare and vulnerable destinations has given rise to a phenomenon known as last chance tourism. This travel behaviour involves tourists increasingly travelling to destinations they perceive to be critically threatened, while contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change impacts in these very places. For last chance destinations to be managed effectively in the face of climate change, a clearer understanding of what drives this travel behaviour is needed. Drawing on the importance of place and nature to identity construction, this research uses a structural equation modelling approach to examine last chance tourism motivations in Churchill, Canada. Results provide evidence of a motivation to engage in a last chance experience. They also indicate that this motivation is related to a desire to share a connection to nature with similar individuals, and to become part of the local story. Beyond this, results show that visitors' sense of place identity and nature relatedness contribute significantly to their motivation to engage in last chance tourism. Findings from this research are important to the management of last chance destinations, including protected areas that are legislated to preserve significant natural and cultural features.
Defining an ideal "tourism climate" has been an often-visited research topic where explanations have evolved from global- to location-specific indices tailored to tourists' recreational behavior. Unfortunately, as indices become increasingly specific, they are less translatable across geographies because they may only apply to specific activities, locales, climates, or populations. A key need in the future development of weather and climate indices for tourism has been a translatable, meteorologically based index capturing the generalized ambient atmospheric conditions yet considering local climatology. To address this need, this paper tests the applicability of the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) as a tool to predict visitor attendance response in the tourism, recreation, and leisure (TRL) sector across different climate regimes. Daily attendance data is paired with the prevailing synoptic weather condition at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks from September 2001 to June 2011, to review potential impacts ambient atmospheric conditions may have on visitor attendances. Results indicate that "dry moderate" conditions are most associated with high levels of attendance and "moist polar" synoptic conditions are most associated with low levels of attendance at both zoological parks. Comparing visitor response at these zoo locations, visitors in Indianapolis showed lower levels of tolerance to synoptic conditions which were not "ideal." Visitors in Indianapolis also displayed more aversion to "polar" synoptic regimes while visitors in Atlanta displayed more tolerance to "moist tropical" synoptic regimes. Using a comprehensive atmospheric measure such as the SSC may be a key to broadening application when assessing tourism climates across diverse geographies.
Using the two climatic change scenarios selected by the Canadian Climate Centre, an attempt has been made, using snowcover suitability percentiles to estimate the resilience and sensitivity of downhill skiing in the Lower Laurentians to the suggested changes in temperature and precipitation. The scenarios suggest an average winter increase in the range of 0 to 16 percent for precipitation and 7.6 to 9.3oF (4.2 to 5.2oC) for temperature. These changes could possibly result in a reduction of the marginally reliable and reliable ski seasons in the Laurentians by 40 to 89 percent respectively with a minimum financial loss of $10 million and a maximum loss of virtual elimination of the ski industry in ths area. It would appear then that downhill skiing in the Lower Laurentians has some resilience to the suggested conditions of one scenario but not the other. In addition, the sensitivity analyses indicate that the ski season length in this part of Canada is little affected until the average winter temperature increases by 4oF (2.2oC). -Authors
We present a simulation model of the flow of tourists between 207 countries, used to study the impact of climate change on international tourism. The model almost perfectly reproduces the calibration year 1995, and performs well in reproducing the observations for 1980, 1985 and 1990. The model is used to generate scenarios of international tourist departures and arrivals for the period 2000-2075, with particular emphasis on climate change; we report variations on a single baseline scenario (A1B). The growth rate of international tourism is projected to increase over the coming decades, but may slow down later in the century, as demand for travel saturates. Emissions of carbon dioxide would increase quickly as well. With climate change, preferred destinations would shift to higher latitudes and altitudes. Tourists from temperate climates would spend more holidays in their home countries. As such tourists currently dominate the international tourism market, climate change would decrease worldwide tourism. Nevertheless, its effects are small compared to the baseline projections of population and economic growth.
The aim of this study is to assess the most relevant quantitative approaches to evaluating the effects of climate change on tourism. In recent years, numerous empirical studies have conducted evaluations of this kind, based on different methodologies and perspectives. This review shows that the effects of climate change can first be assessed through changes in physical conditions essential to tourism; secondly, by using climate indexes to measure the attractiveness of tourist destinations; and, thirdly, by modelling tourism demand with the inclusion of climate determinants. The review suggests that, although some methodologies are in the early stages of development, different approaches result in a similar map of those areas mainly affected by the problem.
The Great Lakes hold specific significance to the economy and ecology of the eight states it unites. For this project, using the 25-year long record of meteorological data from NOAA's National Buoy Data Center (NDBC) for ice-free conditions, it can be shown that despite large variability, climate change effects on the Great Lakes region can be detected. This was achieved by: (1) compiling mean monthly values from raw hourly data from the NOAA NDBC for period 2002-2005 which had not been done yet; (2) statistically analyzing monthly data for period 1980- 2005; and (3) comparing our results to other climate indicators related to events such as ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation), PNA (Northern American Pattern), and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). Preliminary findings for the considered period indicated an increase in the temperature median of 2°C; a decrease in the high extreme of pressure correlating to an increase in the high extreme of wind velocity. Additionally, in dependence on the buoy location, we observed two to four-year cycle in the summer mean lake temperature values. Understanding and attributing such climate behavior in the Great Lakes can help in both adjusting economically to probable changes, as well as understanding global climate changes.
This article examines the numerous impacts of hallmark events on the destination area which has generated the event. These effects include not only the economic results but also the physical, socio-cultural, psychological, and political impacts such events have.
This article examines the interactions between sea ice change and patterns of cruise ship tourism through the Northwest Passage of Arctic Canada and how local communities are responding to this change. During the period 2006–2010, the Passage has emerged as the most popular expedition cruise area in the Canadian Arctic with an increase in planned cruises by 70%. This dramatic increase in cruise traffic has been, in part, facilitated by improved access as a result of decreases in sea ice. Since 1968, total sea ice area in northern route of the Northwest Passage has decreased by 11% per decade and total sea ice area in the southern of the Northwest Passage has decreased by 16% per decade. Integrating research from both social and geophysical science, this article presents an analysis of changing cruise tourism patterns through the Northwest Passage and analyses resident responses from Passage communities including Ulukhaktok, Gjoa Haven, and Pond Inlet. Discussion is focused on issues associated with infrastructure, security, protection of the marine environment, human safety, and search and rescue. This research is important to help prepare communities, policy makers, as well as the cruise sector itself, to be responsive to change in these remote locations.
To estimate the magnitude of climate change anticipated for Canada's 38 National Parks (NPs) and Park Reserves, seasonal temperature and precipitation scenarios were constructed for 2050 and 2090 using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled model (CGCM1). For each park, we assessed impacts on physical systems, species, ecosystems and people. Important, widespread changes relate to marine and freshwater hydrology, glacial balance, waning permafrost, increased natural disturbance, shorter ice season, northern and upward altitudinal species and biome shifts, and changed visitation patterns. Other changes are regional (e.g., combined East coast subsidence and sea level rise increase coastal erosion and deposition, whereas, on the Pacific coast, tectonic uplift negates sea level rise). Further predictions concern individual parks (e.g., Unique fens of Bruce Peninsular NP will migrate lakewards with lowered water levels, but structural regulation of Lake Huron for navigation and power generation would destroy the fens). Knowledge gaps are the most important findings. For example: we could not form conclusions about glacial mass balance, or its effects on rivers and fjords. Likewise, for the East Coast Labrador Current we could neither estimate temperature and salinity effects of extra iceberg formation, nor the further effects on marine food chains, and breeding park seabirds. We recommend 1) Research on specific large knowledge gaps; 2) Climate change information exchange with protected area agencies in other northern countries; and 3) incorporating climate uncertainty into park plans and management. We discuss options for a new park management philosophy in the face of massive change and uncertainty.