In this paper, we examine the impact of the circular economy on global resource extraction. To this end, we make an input-output analysis dynamic by combining it with an agent-based model of the capital sector. This approach allows us to study the evolution of the circular economy due to the endogenous decisions of firms on whether to invest in the capital expansion of primary or secondary sectors. Previous studies have examined the macroeconomic effects of the circular economy using scenarios that exogenously impose higher recycling rates, improved resource efficiency, or lowered demand on the economy. Such studies typically assume static consumer budgets, no price adjustments, capital investments in recycling infrastructure, or technological innovation. We relax these assumptions in a novel agent-based input-output model (ABM-IO). We show that the circular economy can significantly reduce the extraction of iron, aluminum, and nonferrous metals if implemented globally. However, the leakage effect may also cause some metal-intensive industries to relocate outside the EU, offsetting the circular economy efforts. The risk of the leakage effect is especially high for copper. The urgency to reduce the depletion of natural resources is indisputable. An eightfold increase in global resource extraction and a doubling of per capita material consumption have been observed over the last century 1. In the future, the impact of the low-carbon transition on resource extraction is expected to be immense and exacerbate this trend 2. The demand for rare metals and minerals needed for technologies such as solar photovoltaics, batteries, electric vehicles, wind turbines, fuels cells, and nuclear reactors is expected to increase between 1000 and 87,000%, depending on the specific technology, by 2060 3. Today's mineral supply and investment plans are insufficient for the transformation of the energy sector 4. Many minerals critical for emerging technologies are in scarcity due to political tensions, shortages, and declining grades of metal ores 5, 6. Another difficulty is that many critical metals are obtained only as by-products of the mining of other metals. For instance, nearly all indium production occurs as a by-product of zinc 7. As a result, supply of such metals is inelastic and unable to respond quickly to supply shortages. The transition to a circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a possible solution to these problems that can reduce waste, carbon dioxide emissions, and global resource extraction 8, 9. It has been high on the political agenda. For instance, the EU introduced the Circular Economy Action Plan that set targets for landfill, reuse, and recycling to be achieved by 2035. The new monitoring framework was adopted to track progress in improving material and consumption footprints, resource productivity, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions and material dependency 9. So far, there is no single definition of the circular economy, which is often perceived as a combination of reduce, reuse, and recycle 10. Other definitions emphasize the need for the more efficient use of products and processes, extending product lifespan, finding new applications for used materials/old products, as well as changing business models, and how production and consumption are organized 11, 12. Most models of the circular economy focus on its two aspects: increasing recycling rates and improving resource efficiency 12-14 , which typically have been studied using static input-output analysis (other studies use Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA), for an overview see Towa et al. 15). Studying the CE using the static input-output analysis offers an important first step in understanding its economy-wide impacts. However, the approach suffers from three problems when it comes to making projections about future resource extraction. First, in most studies , secondary and primary products are perfect substitutes, characterized by the same price. Second, secondary inputs substitute for primary production in an exogenously-specified scenario that defines the share of recycled materials in production. No capital investment is considered, although the lack of related infrastructure has been a major barrier to the expansion of secondary production in many sectors. Without capital investment in new infrastructure, it is not possible to increase recycling rates or implement new business models to support the OPEN