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A Field Guide to Ethnographic Experiential Futures

  • June 2017
DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.30623.97448
Authors:
Stuart Candy at The New School
Stuart Candy
Kelly Kornet Weber at Autodesk
Kelly Kornet Weber
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Abstract

Ethnographic Experiential Futures (EXF) is a design-driven, hybrid approach to foresight aimed at increasing the accessibility, variety and depth of available images of the future. Presented at Design Develop Transform Conference, Brussels, June 2017. A full peer-reviewed article on EXF has now been published in the Journal of Futures Studies, and is available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331857932
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ETHNOGRAPHIC
EXPERIENTIAL
FUTURES
MAP: Inquire into and record
people's actual or existing images
of the future (e.g. possible;
probable; preferred; a combination)
• Choose an individual or group to
work with: scale could vary from
personal (e.g. Greyson, Making the
Futures Present) to large groups
such as a neighbourhood (e.g.
Candy & Dunagan, Foundfutures
Chinatown), company, or country.
• Select a suitable time horizon for
inquiry (between, say, 10-50 years).
• Images of the future may be
elicited via formal and face-to-
face processes such as Textor’s
Ethnographic Futures Research
interviews (e.g. Kornet, Causing an
Effect).
• Alternatively, less formal processes
could be used, such as unstructured
interviews (e.g. Foundfutures) or
direct observation (at a corporate
strategy conference for instance).
MULTIPLY: Generate alternative
images (scenarios) to challenge or
extend existing thinking (optional
step, but recommended)
• Here you may choose to diversify
the researched images of the future
through generating alternatives,
such as by complementing the
usual EFR categories by adding
‘unexpected’ on top of ‘expected’
(e.g. Making the Futures Present).
• This might be done in collaboration
with the research subjects or by the
futurist/researcher herself.
• Omit if primary research goal is
to deepen existing futures (e.g.
Causing an Effect) or if diversity of
original inputs meets requirements
(e.g. Situation Lab/Extrapolation
Factory, 1-888-FUTURES).
MEDIATE: Translate these ideas
about the future/s into experiences:
tangible, immersive, visual or
interactive representations
• This step is about moving from
vague ideas about the future to
more specic ones. You could
use a tool such as the Experiential
Futures Ladder to get from a Setting
(scenario concept) to a Scenario
(particular hypothetical), and onward
to ideas for 1:1-scale Situations or
Stuff (artifacts).
• You may opt to serve as a
‘facilitator’ such that participants
produce their own materials (e.g.
1-888-FUTURES).
• Or, you may serve as a ‘designer’
and do the translating yourself (e.g.
Causing an Effect; Foundfutures).
• A hybrid approach is also available;
co-creating artifacts or prototypes
with the participant/s (e.g. Making
the Futures Present).
MOUNT: Stage experiential
scenario/s to encounter for the
original subject/s, or others (or
both)
• In steps 3 and 4, for impact
consider diegetic integrity (realism
and polish in the nished product;
delity to the hypothetical): how
would this thing/scene really look and
feel if this future were happening?
• The experiential scenario/s may
be shared in a relatively scripted
environment like a public exhibition
(e.g. Causing an Effect) or a
workshop (e.g. Making the Futures
Present).
• Alternatively, the encounter could be
staged on an unsolicited basis, such
as a ‘guerrilla futures’ installation in
a city street (e.g. Foundfutures).
• Mixed contexts of encounter are
also possible, such as the posting of
future artifacts in the mail or online
(e.g. 1-888-FUTURES).
MAP: Inquire into and record
responses to the experiential
scenario/s
• This iteration of the mapping stage
completes a cycle. It is not identical
to the rst mapping task, as this
time you are recording responses
and reactions to design outcomes
that you have shaped, rather than
just describing what is found.
• A formal version of this process
might involve interviewing the people
whose images were mapped
originally (e.g. Causing an Effect;
Making the Futures Present).
• A more informal process could use
something like direct observation of
people encountering the experiential
scenarios (e.g. Foundfutures), or
online conversations and responses.
• You could continue the process
again from here, or even
institutionalise it as ongoing.
Ethnographic Experiential
Futures is a design-driven, hybrid
approach to foresight aimed
at increasing the accessibility,
variety and depth of available
images of the future.
MATERIALS NEEDED
• An individual, group or culture whose
images of the future you are interested in
understanding, surfacing and deepening.
• Media for the creation of rapid and/
or high-delity prototypes.
• This may be 2D (video; animation; digital
images; print matter; even pen and paper),
3D (basic construction materials; found
products/objects to hack), or 4D (live
performance).
EXF
MAP
MEDIATE
MULTIPLYMOUNT
A Field Guide by Stuart Candy and Kelly Kornet
Presented at Design Develop Transform, Brussels | June 2017 | v1.1 | Feedback welcome Stuart Candy @futuryst | Kelly Kornet @kellykornet
54321
INSTRUCTIONS
... EXF is an approach to futures research proposed by Candy and Kornet that combines Ethnographic Futures Research (EFR) and experiential scenarios. According to the authors, "Ethnographic Experiential Futures is a design-driven, hybrid approach to foresight aimed at increasing the accessibility, variety and depth of available images of the future" [29]. ...
... The EXF process identifies four main phases: Map, Multiply, Mediate, and Mount. The process is described as circular, susceptible to iteration since the experiential scenarios generated might trigger additional views on possible futures [29]. ...
... Building on the findings from mapping, the work during the Multiply phase focuses on producing alternate images about the future that challenge or extend the current thinking. As Candy and Kornet note, this work can be done in collaboration with the research participants [29]. In the context of this research, a participatory approach was adopted through co-design workshops in which participants were invited to ideate tools that collect and visualize learners' data (see Fig.3). ...
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... There are various typologies available for describing and mapping future imaginaries found among a population, including Ethnographic Futures Research (EFR) (Textor, 1995), Generic Images of the Future (Dator, 2009;Candy, Dator, Dunagan, 2006), and the Systems Mythology Toolkit (Hendricks, 2014). A framework for customising particular deployments following the whole process suggested above (map, multiply, mediate, mount, and map again) can be found in Ethnographic Experiential Futures (EXF), "a design-driven, hybrid approach to foresight aimed at increasing the accessibility, variety and depth of available images of the future" (Candy, Kornet, 2017). ...
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