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Abstract

The devastating effects of fossil fuels on the environment, limited natural sources and increasing demand for energy across the world make renewable energy sources more important than in the past. The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference resulted in a global agreement on net zero CO2 emissions shortly after the middle of the twenty-first century, which will lead to a collapse of fossil fuel demand. The focus of the study is to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system in Iran by 2030 using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of renewable energy technologies, least-cost energy supply, mix of capacities and operation modes were calculated and the role of storage technologies was examined. Two scenarios have been evaluated in this study: a countrywide scenario and an integrated scenario. In the countrywide scenario, renewable energy generation and energy storage technologies cover the country’s power sector electricity demand. In the integrated scenario, the renewable energy generated was able to fulfil both the electricity demand of the power sector and the substantial electricity demand for water desalination and synthesis of industrial gas. By adding sector integration, the total levelized cost of electricity decreased from 45.3 to 40.3 €/MWh. The levelized cost of electricity of 40.3 €/MWh in the integrated scenario is quite cost-effective and beneficial in comparison with other low-carbon but high-cost alternatives such as carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy. A 100% renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a real policy option.

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... The energy consumption of private households has risen sharply since 2012 and currently accounts for 35% of the total energy consumption in Iran. This is approximately equal to electricity consumption in the industrial sector (Aghahosseini et al., 2018). ...
... In general, energy production in the Middle East, including Iran, is dominated by low-cost fossil fuels whose use is socioeconomically expedient in the present but will create significant environmental and socioeconomic problems in the future (Aghahosseini et al., 2018;Nematollahi et al., 2016). Oil-exporting countries use more energy to promote economic growth than non-oil-exporting countries. ...
... The potential of RES is recognized by the Iranian government, which recently took several measures and actions to stimulate the use of RES in various sectors of the economy. This has created the potential for Iran's energy policy to shift from an oil-dominant one to a more diversified energy mix (Aghahosseini et al., 2018). ...
Article
Despite political drivers, available solar and wind potentials, and other driving factors, the share of renewable energy sources in Iran's energy mix remains small. Many factors are perceived as barriers to the use of renewable energy sources and therefore influence the willingness of private households in Iran to use this kind of energy. We argue that social media not only plays an increasingly important role in perceptions of various technologies but also influences people's intentions. Therefore, our aim in this study is to understand whether and how social media influences people's intentions to use renewable energy sources. The research sample includes users of Instagram who are interested in and following information being posted on renewable energy sources. The methodology includes the use of a modified version of the extended parallel process model that includes attitude, intention, and trust in social media. The results of structural equation modeling show that the perceived risk of climate change significantly affects respondents' intention to use renewable energies. Also, perceived self-efficacy has a significant impact on attitude, intention, and use of renewable energy. Government agencies can increase the likelihood that household energy consumers will use renewable energy by using trusted channels to deliver necessary messages about the harms of using traditional energy and the low cost and ease of using renewable energy.
... Literature in regard to the studies for individual countries and the global solar records, shown in Fig. 14.3 In the last decade, the use of the solar energy for electricity power generation has progressed tremendously around the world due to the technology maturity and price reduction (IEA 2015a, b; Aghahosseini et al. 2018;Buttler and Spliethoff 2018;GRC 2018a, b) and can be considered cheaper than the traditional fossil fuel if all externalities are internalised, i.e. the pollution and its health and environmental impacts (Toklu 2013;Dai et al. 2018). ...
... Despite this, the pumped hydro energy storage has been used in the ETRB for decades (Johnson 2016), the topography limitations and the increase of water stress in the basin imposed the need for new distributed energy generation and storage in different scale of capacities as well as national scale of economy energy storage system in the riparian countries region. The new elegant innovations of power to gas, peer-to-peer (blockchain) energy trading and batteries (small and strata scale) need be developed in the region accordingly (Devlin et al. 2017;Aghahosseini et al. 2018;Robinius et al. 2018). Also, concentrated solar power plants or salinity gradient solar ponds are considered as a heat energy storage system that can help to overcome the intermittency and fluctuations in solar energy sources (Baniassadi et al. 2018). ...
... Also, concentrated solar power plants or salinity gradient solar ponds are considered as a heat energy storage system that can help to overcome the intermittency and fluctuations in solar energy sources (Baniassadi et al. 2018). The literature on energy storage in the ETRB revealed that a great scientific effort has been done technically but not greatly coordinated with the governments and decision makers (Aghahosseini et al. 2018). ...
Chapter
Understanding the interdependency of energy and water and the influencing factors as well as how this interrelation impacts the other essential sectors for the riparian states in the Euphrates and Tigris river basin. A literature review was conducted on the water stress, dispute and the renewable energy resources available in the basin. The water usage in the energy sector and the energy consumption in the water sector are reviewed. Nexus thinking and stakeholders’ engagement approach were discussed to mitigate the water dispute in the basin. The asymmetry in power with the resources diversity in the riparian countries was promoted as an entry point for more collaboration and joint actions. The renewable energy resources availability was reviewed incomparable to the status of the renewable energy sources utilised, that already exist or are planned in the basin.
... Lately, the demand for energy across the globe has experienced a substantial unquestionable surge. According to speculations, such a demand will likely rise by 56% during 2010-40 [1]. Meanwhile, many difficulties have been looming over the energy market; these issues include the absence of security in energy, fossil fuel supply shortage, shortage of water supplies (particularly in deserts and dry areas), developments in the economy and increased urbanization, and population growth. ...
... Fig. 1 demonstrates 2018 statistics on the United States' use of energy by related supplies. Alternatively, five distinct means of harnessing energy from oceans are listed as supplies of RE by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [1]: waves, tidal power, marine streams, salinity, and heat gradients. ...
... U.S. energy consumption by energy source, retrieved from Ref.[1]. ...
Article
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The supplier selection problem (SSP) is a significant issue in renewable supply chain management (RSCM). Selecting a strategic green supplier can not only discover the sustainable development of supply chains but also optimize the consumption rate of resources and decrease the negative environmental effects, which adopts to the green development context. As a multiple criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) problem, choosing a strategic green supplier is important to renewable supply chains. However, how to choose a strategic green supplier for supply chains is a great effort. Hence, In the present work, evaluating a set of strategic suppliers is primarily based on green capabilities by using an integrated fuzzy Best Worst Method (FBWM) with the other two techniques , namely COPRAS (Complex Proportional Assessment of Alternatives) and WASPAS (Weighted Aggregated Sum-Product Assessment). Initially, nine strategic supplier selection criteria have been identified through literature review and a real-world case study of Iran's renewable energy supply chain is deliberated to exhibit the proposed framework's applicability. The applied methodology and its analysis will provide insight to decision-makers of strategic supplier selection. It may aid decision-makers and the procurement department in differentiating the significant strategic green supplier selection criteria and assess the strategic green supplier in the local and global market supply chain. Finally, the strengths and limitation of the framework are discussed by using comparative analysis with other methods.
... Because of the massive subsidies that the Iranian government pays to energy consumers, energy consumption in this country is highly inefficient. However, the government has recently shown more interest in promoting renewable energy in different sectors, and in stimulating a shift from fossil fuels to new energies [41]. The existence of excellent renewable energy potentials in Iran provides a good foundation for the expansion of activities related to these energies for this country. ...
... By the end of 2018, the world's total wind power generation capacity was 600 GW, with the largest share belonging to China (200 GW) and the United States (100 GW) [53]. In many parts of Iran, the geographic conditions and low air pressure provide good potentials for the harvesting of wind energy [41]. In a wind energy potential assessment project, the recoverable wind power potential of Iran was estimated to be about 100 GW [42]. ...
... CSP plants can generate electricity at both day and night [1]. Despite Iran's excellent solar energy potential, the country has failed to exploit this potential, and still supplies less than 1% of its total power demand from solar sources [41]. The net solar thermal potential of Iran, with the assumption of 35% efficiency for the generation system, has been estimated at 91,000 TW [55]. ...
Article
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Farmers across the world have long used chemical fertilizers to achieve higher production outputs. One of the basic inputs for the production of nitrogen fertilizer is fossil fuel, which is not only finite but also has tangible impacts on the environment. This study aims to determine the most suitable renewable energy resource (RER) for the production of fertilizer in Iranian farmlands. The resources considered in this study were photovoltaic energy, biomass energy, wind energy, and solar thermal energy. This assessment was carried out in terms of six general criteria derived from a PESTEL (Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological, Environmental and Legal) analysis, and thus 20 sub-criteria were obtained with the help of experts. The criteria were weighted using the Fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method. Because of the use of criteria with crisp, fuzzy, and interval-type values, the ranking was performed using the extended TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese of interactive and multi-criteria decision-making) method. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effects of the sub-criteria on the results. The results showed that the technological criterion is the most important measure for this assessment, and that photovoltaic energy and wind energy are the top two options for powering chemical fertilizer production in Iranian farmlands.
... Evidence has predicted energy independence in Iran by using non-fossil fuels. For example, Aghahosseini et al. [47] showed that an energy system based on 100% renewable resources is not a dream but is a safe and low-cost option up to 2030. High energy losses and efforts to address this gap (for example, the use of sunlight in buildings) have overshadowed the use of renewable energy. ...
... Evidence has predicted energy independence in Iran by using non-fossil fuels. For example, Aghahosseini et al. [47] showed that an energy system based on 100% renewable resources is not a dream but is a safe and low-cost option up to 2030. ...
Article
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Iran, endowed with abundant renewable and non-renewable energy resources, particularly non-renewable resources, faces challenges such as air pollution, climate change and energy security. As a leading exporter and consumer of fossil fuels, it is also attempting to use renewable energy as part of its energy mix toward energy security and sustainability. Due to its favorable geographic characteristics, Iran has diverse and accessible renewable sources, which provide appropriate substitutes to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Therefore, this study aims to examine trends in energy demand, policies and development of renewable energies and the causal relationship between renewable and non-renewable energies and economic growth using two methodologies. This study first reviews the current state of energy and energy policies and then employs Granger causality analysis to test the relationships between the variables considered. Results showed that renewable energy technologies currently do not have a significant and adequate role in the energy supply of Iran. To encourage the use of renewable energy, especially in electricity production, fuel diversification policies and development program goals were introduced in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Diversifying energy resources is a key pillar of Iran’s new plan. In addition to solar and hydropower, biomass from the municipal waste from large cities and other agricultural products, including fruits, can be used to generate energy and renewable sources. While present policies indicate the incorporation of sustainable energy sources, further efforts are needed to offset the use of fossil fuels. Moreover, the study predicts that with the production capacity of agricultural products in 2018, approximately 4.8 billion liters of bioethanol can be obtained from crop residues and about 526 thousand tons of biodiesel from oilseeds annually. Granger’s causality analysis also shows that there is a unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth to renewable and non-renewable energy use. Labor force and gross fixed capital formation cause renewable energy consumption, and nonrenewable energy consumption causes renewable energy consumption.
... The number of cloudy days be try throughout the country is less than five days a year, and the transpa most parts of Iran is considered more than 60%. It is natural that using s supply hot water for consumption in our country will be cost-effective [69] Iran is one of the most talented regions for the construction of conc power plants in the Middle East, with an average direct radiation average square meter per day and about 300 bright sunny days per year [70]. ...
... Iran is one of the most talented regions for the construction of concentrated solar power plants in the Middle East, with an average direct radiation average of 5.5 kWh per square meter per day and about 300 bright sunny days per year [70]. ...
Article
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The present article includes studies on the importance of addressing strategic issues in the field of general policies adopted and strategies for the development of renewable energy in Iran. Considering that energy is one of the determining indicators in economic development and the development and optimization of renewable energy can play an effective role in economic growth and protection of environmental conditions, this article tries to introduce the types of renewable energy and general principles. They point to the policies that ultimately determine the priority and necessity of using some of them for the country and explain why and how to use them. The general principles discussed in this article include the advantages, disadvantages, potentials, and, most importantly, comparative comparisons with two neighboring countries. The results of these studies show that despite Iran’s diverse potentials in the field of renewable energy, wind energy has a higher priority than other cases in terms of economic justification and market competition, and domestic production rates. Other renewable energy sources for power generation and grid connection are less of a priority for short- or medium-term investment. However, for non-grid use in the country, they can also be very useful in the short term. In general, Iran can be a hub for renewable energy.
... However, factors such as the high rate of GHG emission, depletion of Samadi et al., 2020 ). Besides, its energy intensity is 36% more than the global average ( Aghahosseini et al., 2018 ). A large portion of consumed energy in Iran is produced from FFs, and RE has a small share in energy generation. ...
... In this country, RE resources have not been exploited efficiently so far; however, policy-makers have inserted RE development in the Sixth Five-year Development Plan, and in the long term, they aim to increase RE's capacity by about 40% by 2025 1 . According to Aghahosseini et al. (2018) , the share of each RE in the capacity installed in Iran is Table 2 . However, given its geographical location, Iran can make significant progress in exploiting other resources by allocating budgets and developing the required infrastructure. ...
Article
Environmental concerns such as water pollution and global warming resulted in considerable attention being paid to sustainable bioenergy. Due to the eco-friendly nature of sustainable bioenergy, we investigated an integrated bioenergy supply chain network design. In the proposed network, different energy crops, Azadirachta indica and Eruca sativa are taken into account, which leads to different sources for bioenergy production. Furthermore, to prevent further environmental pollution, the wastewater produced at biorefinery is used to generate bioelectricity. This paper addresses a sustainable-efficient bioenergy supply chain network design under uncertainty. A multi-period, multi-product mathematical model is proposed to minimize inefficiency, environmental impacts, and supply chain costs. Furthermore, to cope with uncertainty, a mixed robust-possibilistic programming approach is applied to the model. Finally, computational results based on Iran's real-world case demonstrate the improved performance of the designed bioenergy network by considering three measures of cost, efficiency, and environmental impacts.
... Therefore, reducing the share of fossil fuels and increasing the share of biofuels are two of the most important future goals in this sector. Renewable resources in agriculture are a good alternative to conventional fuels which can ensure energy security and at the same time, they have the least destructive effect on the environment [5,8]. For this reason, investment in this type of energy is increasing worldwide [9]. ...
... Currently, the share of renewable energy in Iran's energy portfolio is very small [8,9]. One of the reasons for the failure to use renewable energy is inefficient policies. ...
Article
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The purpose of this study is to present a renewable energy policy model in the agricultural sector of Iran. To achieve this goal, a questionnaire consisting of 57 items was designed. The reliability of the questionnaire was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha (0.916). Also, to analyze the validity and reliability of the research tool, the Average Variance Extracted (AVE) and Composite Reliability (CR) were calculated. The validity of the questionnaire was determined using face validity, Content Validity Ratio (CVR), and Content Validity Index (CVI). The statistical population of the study consists of energy policymaking experts who were estimated at about 80 people. The sampling method was random and 70 samples answered the questionnaire using the Krejcie and Morgan table. Using structural equation modeling and the maximum likelihood method and using LISREL software, the model fit was estimated at a favorable level. Based on the findings, it was found that the priorities of the agricultural sector and the needs of this sector had not been considered in renewable energy policymaking. Policymaking is done top-down and stakeholders are not considered. Renewable equipment market policies are not adequate and the market is not properly managed. Interaction between policymaking institutions is not in good shape. The results of this study can help address the various shortcomings of the renewable energy policy as well as reduce the common inconsistencies in this area. Finally, suggestions were made for the development and promotion of policies in the field of renewable energy in the agricultural sector of Iran.
... Using fossil fuels has been an ordinary approach to generate electricity for a long time. Both environmental crisis and exhaustibility of the fossil fuel resources are the two reasons that led governments to reroute toward the use of different kinds of renewable energies [1][2][3]. Justifiable payback period for both energy consumption and investment are the two key points which made renewable energies more attractive [4]. So that the installed capacity of renewable energy has reached 2,510 GW globally by the end of 2019 [5]. ...
... (1) Different fin geometries attached to the back surface of the PV module are effective passive cooling techniques which can be used for enhancing power generation of PV power plants. (2) Mounting 40 aluminum fins for both geometries led to a significant reduction of temperature, down to 15 °C. This temperature drop caused to increase in energy efficiency by 13.7%. ...
Article
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The decrease in output power of a photovoltaic (PV) power plant with increase in temperature is one of the main issues which can be controlled by cooling the PV modules. In this experimental study, various numbers of 10, 20, 30 and 40 aluminum fins in two different geometries of straight and zigzag were mounted at the back side of PV modules. In order to conform the ambient conditions, experiments were done by a solar simulator, under constant irradiation of 630 W m−2. The main objective of the study is to measure the effect of mounted fins at the back surface of PV panels, on electricity generation by lowering the panel surface temperature. PV panels with zigzag fin geometry are found to perform better than those with straight fins and also the module without fins. The results show that in case of 10 fins, temperature drops of 9 °C and 15 °C and increase in output power of 8% and 14% are achieved for straight and zigzag geometries, respectively. The entropy generation as an important thermodynamic parameter is also evaluated and a reduction of 1.5% to 2.5% is found in different experiments. Follow-up potential research areas are also identified.
... The general potential of various green energy sources available in Iran including hydropower, solar, wind, and biomass energies as well as their current situations and to which extent they are being harnessed is reviewed in [3]. Using an hourly resolution model, a 100% renewable sources-dependent program for year 2030 in Iran is envisioned, in which an optimal set of factors comprising least-cost energy supply, renewable energy technologies, mix of capacities, and operational modes are taken into account [36]. Asadi et al. investigated current status, trend, and schemes for renewable energy development in Iran [37]. ...
... In Table 5, reviewed literature is summarized in nine categories. [3][4][5][6][7]14,18,22,23,[26][27][28][35][36][37]40,53,71,89,107]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Nowadays, fossil fuels are well known as a predominant source of energy in the planet. Located in the Middle East region, Iran holds one of the largest fossil fuel reservoirs in the world. The country has abundant oil and natural gas fields in various regions; some of them are shared between other countries and have not reached their operational capacity yet. Meanwhile, during recent years and due to global warming followed by environmental global contracts such as Kyoto protocol, using fossil fuels is being criticized to a large extent around the world. Therefore, the global interest has been focused toward clean energy resources. Furthermore, endowed with sundry geographical pattern throughout its land, Iran has adequate renewable energy potentials. So, there will be a serious paradox affecting its whole energy policy: more exploration and extraction of conventional fossil fuels or take advantage of renewable and sustainable energy resources? In this paper, energy structure of Iran is generally overviewed, followed by study of renewable energy potentials in various parts of the country. Afterwards, policy making in renewable energy market, systems, and applicable strategies are elaborated. Furthermore, a number of barriers obstructing the development path of renewable energy schemes and initiatives are presented and discussed in detail.
... Fossil fuels are the driving force behind technological progress. But the evacuation of fossil fuels and the disastrous effects of excessive consumption has forced humanity to rethink the use of fossil fuels as a source of energy (Mahmoudimehr and Shabani 2018;Komendantova, Yazdanpanah, and Shafiei 2018;Aghahosseini et al. 2018;Ojaroudi, Ojaroudi, and Ghadimi 2012;Saeedi et al. 2019). ...
... The anemometer height for the workshop location for the turbine is considered 50m above the earth's surface. So, from(Aghahosseini et al. 2018) we can consider that the wind speed varies from 5.61m/s to 9.27m/s. Monthly average wind speed data in the workshop ...
Article
This study presents an optimal configuration of a hybrid renewable energy source with a wind turbine and a photovoltaic system to fulfill the required electricity power of a medium-size workshop in an industrial area in Ardabil, Iran. The paper presents a techno-economic analysis for achieving the least-cost configuration using historic data from supply and demand sides. The results show that due to the windy climatic conditions in the studied area, a large percentage of the generated energy is supplied by wind energy resources. Eight feasible configurations including Diesel, Diesel/Battery, PV/Diesel /Battery, Wind/Diesel/Battery, PV/Wind/Diesel/Battery, PV/Diesel, Wind/Diesel, and PV/Wind/ Diesel are considered in hourly-based simulations. Energy cost is calculated for different conditions. The results show that the integration of 13 kW diesel generator, 1 kW PV array, 2 numbers of 3kW wind turbine, 6.13 kW converter and 27 strings of 1 kW lead-acid batteries storage bank is the best configuration that leads to the minimum Levelized Cost of Energy (COE) of 0.462 $/kWh in Ardabil area. The simple payback for the proposed system is obtained 7.17 years and the discount payback is achieved 9.78 years and finally, the lifetime for the optimum system is obtained 20 years which shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the implemented system for the studied workshop.
... EnergyPLAN, introduced in 2006 [46], has been used in multi-sector 100% RE studies for the Aalborg Municipality [47], Åland Islands [48,49], Macedonia [50], Denmark [51,52], Scotland [53], Ireland [54,55], Finland [56], South East Europe [57], and the European Union [12], among others. The LUT model, introduced in 2015 [58] and inspired by an earlier model [59], has been utilised in 100% RE studies for global analyses of the power sector [15] but also all sectors [16], detailed sector coupling studies including the industry sector [17], applied for major regions as transition model for Europe [60] and Northeast Asia [61], while overnight scenarios have been applied for all major regions [14], country studies have been applied for single-node overnight [62], single-node transition [63] and multi-node transition [64] cases. The latest studies utilising the LUT model cover multi-sector, transition scenarios with partial sector coupling [65], and with multi-node, full sector coupling comparing different scenarios [66][67][68]. ...
Article
Full-text available
As the discourse surrounding 100% renewable energy systems has evolved, several energy system modelling tools have been developed to demonstrate the technical feasibility and economic viability of fully sustainable, sector coupled energy systems. While the characteristics of these tools vary among each other, their purpose remains consistent in integrating renewable energy technologies into future energy systems. This paper examines two such energy system models, the LUT Energy System Transition model, an optimisation model, and the EnergyPLAN simulation tool, a simulation model, and develops cost-optimal scenarios under identical assumptions. This paper further analyses different novel modelling approaches used by modellers. Scenarios are developed using the LUT model for Sun Belt countries, for the case of Bolivia, to examine the effects of multi and single-node structuring, and the effects of overnight and energy transition scenarios are analysed. Results for all scenarios indicate a solar PV dominated energy system; however, limitations arise in the sector coupling capabilities in EnergyPLAN, leading it to have noticeably higher annualised costs compared to the single-node scenario from the LUT model despite similar primary levelised costs of electricity. Multi-nodal results reveal that for countries with rich solar resources, high transmission from regions of best solar resources adds little value compared to fully decentralised systems. Finally, compared to the overnight scenarios, transition scenarios demonstrate the impact of considering legacy energy systems in sustainable energy system analyses.
... However, in the northern regions, such as Tehran, in spring (March and April) the highest output power is achieved (Keyhani et al. 2010). In this field, Aghahosseini et al. (2018) presented a scheme to attain a 100% contribution of renewables production in the energy sector of the country, with the help of wind and solar combination and utilisation of power storage systems. With the aid of integrated scenarios, the total renewable energy installed capacities could be improved affectedly from 172.4 to 1089.4 GW to produce 2269.9 ...
Article
Global warming and population growth have been contributing factors to the decline of freshwater resources around the globe. More than 45% of the desalination plants are in the Middle East. Due to the severe scarcity of freshwater resources, Iran also needs to construct several desalination plants, since by 2021 the ratio of freshwater per capita in the country to the world average per capita will be 0.8. The uses of solar, wind, geothermal, and wave are practical in desalination systems. The average solar radiation in Iran is 15.3 kWh/m2/day, which includes more than 2800 hours of radiation per year in central regions. Also wind, geothermal, and wave energy potentials are equalled to 100 � 10 6 MW, 200 MW, and 20 kW/ m, respectively. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the feasibility of using renewable energy for desalination in arid and semi-arid regions and Iran has been considered as a case study. ARTICLE HISTORY
... However, in the northern regions, such as Tehran, in spring (March and April) the highest output power is achieved (Keyhani et al. 2010). In this field, Aghahosseini et al. (2018) presented a scheme to attain a 100% contribution of renewables production in the energy sector of the country, with the help of wind and solar combination and utilisation of power storage systems. With the aid of integrated scenarios, the total renewable energy installed capacities could be improved affectedly from 172.4 to 1089.4 GW to produce 2269.9 ...
Article
Global warming and population growth have been contributing factors to the decline of freshwater resources around 16 the globe. More than 45% of the desalination plants are in the Middle East. Due to the severe scarcity of freshwater 17 resources, Iran also needs to construct several desalination plants, since by 2021 the ratio of freshwater per capita in 18 the country to the world average per capita will be 0.8. The uses of solar, wind, geothermal, and wave are practical 19 in desalination systems. The average solar adiation in Iran is 15.3 kWh/m2/day, which includes more than 2800 hours of radiation per year in central regions. Also wind, geothermal, and wave energy potentials are equaled to 100 *10^6 MW, and 200 MW, and 20 × kW/m, respectively. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the feasibility of using 22 renewable energy for desalination in arid and semi-arid regions and Iran has been considered as a case study.
... Several pieces of research investigated 100% or near-100% renewable energy systems from national perspectives. Such investigation includes energy system analysis of Australia [11,12], Barbados [13], Belgium [14], Brazil [15][16][17][18], Canada [17], China [19], Colombia [20], Costa Rica [17], Croatia [21], Denmark [22][23][24][25][26], Finland [26,27], France [28], Germany [29][30][31], Great Britain [32], Iceland [26], India and the SAARC region [33,34], Iran [35], Ireland [36,37], Italy [38], Japan [39], Macedonia [40], New Zealand [41], Nicaragua [42], Nigeria [43], Norway [17,26], Pakistan [44], Paraguay [5,18], Portugal [45], Saudi Arabia [46], Seychelles [47], Tokelau [48], Turkey [49], Ukraine [50], the United Kingdom [51][52][53], the United States [54][55][56], and Uruguay [18]. Other than these national studies, there are many other 100% renewable system studies larger than national energy systems covering the World [55,[57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64], North-East Asia [65], the ASEAN region [66], Europe and its neighbors [67], Europe [68][69][70][71][72], South-East Europe [73], and the Americas [74]. ...
Article
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The ambitious energy target to achieve climate-neutrality in the European Union (EU) energy system raises the feasibility question of using only renewables across all energy sectors. As one of the EU’s leading industrialized countries, Germany has adopted several climate-action plans for the realistic implementation and maximum utilization of renewable energies in its energy system. The literature review shows a clear gap in comprehensive techniques describing an open modeling approach for analyzing fully renewable and sector-coupled energy systems. This paper outlines a method for analyzing the 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled energy system’s feasibility in Germany. Based on the open energy modeling framework, an hourly optimization tool ‘OSeEM-DE’ is developed to investigate the German energy system. The model results show that a 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled system for electricity and building heat is feasible in Germany. The investment capacities and component costs depend on the parametric variations of the developed scenarios. The annual investment costs vary between 17.6 and 26.6 bn €/yr for volatile generators and between 23.7 and 28.8 bn €/yr for heat generators. The model suggests an investment of a minimum of 2.7–3.9 bn €/yr for electricity and heat storage. Comparison of OSeEM-DE results with recent studies validates the percentage-wise energy mix composition and the calculated Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) values from the model. Sensitivity analyses indicate that storage and grid expansion maximize the system’s flexibility and decrease the investment cost. The study concludes by showing how the tool can analyze different energy systems in the EU context.
... In Iran, Ghorbani et al. [25] introduced a 100% renewable energy system transition plan for 2050; they also calculated the costoptimized share of RE resources and storage technologies, concluding that PV installation with battery storage was the most optimal scenario. To investigate the required power capacity to fulfil the electricity demand by 2050 [26], simulated an hourly resolved model over a 35-year period with five-year time steps. Their objective was to define a 100% RE-based system in Iran through applying wind and solar energies and storage by 2030. ...
Article
Despite the high potential of renewable energy sources in Iran, the current energy system in the country is highly dependent on fossil fuel resources because the abundance of oil and gas resources in the country has made it less feasible to harvest renewable energy. Nowadays, climate change and the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions have led to measures such as determining CO 2 taxes that make renewable-based energy systems more profitable. Southern Iran, with its arid climate, has a high potential for the integration of solar energy into the existing energy system in order to maximize its share on the energy system; therefore, in this research, five scenarios were defined and applied to model the energy system for 2025 and 2030. Each scenario was assumed to maximize the solar energy share for the supply of heating, cooling, and electricity demand, such as photovoltaics (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP). The bottom up EnergyPLAN was applied to model the energy system and scenario computations. The results of the scenarios were compared based on annual CO 2 emissions, costs, total primary energy supply, and critical excess electricity production. Based on the results, all scenarios were able to reduce the CO 2 emissions; however, the PV based scenario had the least costs and utilized 1954 MW of PV power plant to supply the demand with 599 MV/year costs. Natural gas was largest energy resource of the system; due to the 17% reduction in the total primary energy supply compared to BAU and Best Scenario (S5) for 2030, about 20 TWh/year of the natural gas was saved and was ready for export. According to the Paris Agreement, the permissible amount of CO 2 emissions for this province in 2030 is about 9.76 Mt, which is 5.59 Mt in Best Scenario (S5). Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was run for the costs of the business as usual and PV based scenarios under different natural gas prices and emissions tax rates from 0.025 to 1.92 V/Gj and 4 to 20 V/kg of CO 2 , respectively. According to the findings, when the natural gas price increased to 0.521 V/Gj, the renewable-based plans became feasible, and increasing the CO 2 tax caused the cost differences to rise.
... Extensive studies have been carried out to show the feasibility of using alternative power generation methods instead of fossil fuels. Scholars potentially analyzed different countries in order to achieve the 100 % renewable energy supply in the near future, for instance, Iran [3], Bolivia [4], China [5], Nigeria [6], Ireland [7], Japan [8], South Africa [9], Europe [10]. Among different kinds of sustainable resources, solar energy is the most widespread one, due to its accessibility in most parts of the earth. ...
Article
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Photovoltaic (PV) technology plays an important role in the progressing trend of using renewable energies in the world. Yet the negative impact of a cell's temperature rise on its performance is a major weakness of this technology. In this paper, the effects of both air blowing and emitted radiation are investigated experimentally in the ranges of 0–7.7 km/h and 360–840 W/m2, respectively. In this regard, using Central Composite Design (CCD), the experiment was designed and performed to evaluate the response of a PV module to both of the variables. The results show that the PV module temperature drops from 61 °C to 40 °C when radiation intensity is 840 W/m2 and air velocity is 7.7 km/h. This temperature reduction causes a 2.5 % rise in electrical efficiency. Three equations were derived in order to correlate the outcome of temperature, electrical efficiency, and output power of a PV cell, with respect to irradiation intensity and air velocity. It is realized that in order to enhance the PV module output power, the effect of air current velocity is potentially more promising than the irradiance intensity. Also, the results proves that the impact of cooling the module on electrical efficiency strongly depends on the level of irradiation intensity.
... Various provinces in Iran have a high potential for energy production from renewable sources due to the abundance of winds and solar irradiation levels. Due to the huge wind potential in the Persian Gulf islands, an increase in the number of wind turbines can lead to a substantial leap to the country's electricity production [15][16][17]. Considering theoretical and practical research, F. Mirzapour [18], presented a new prediction model of utilizing lead acid a battery in a hybrid power system. S. Rashid et al. [19], also designed a hybrid system to be used in the coastal regions of Bangladesh and reported a substantial improvement in the sustainability of electrical energy using a renewable hybrid system. ...
Article
Reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will have a positive impact on the environment by preventing adverse effects of global warming. To achieve an eco-environment, the primary source of energy needs to shift from fossil fuels to clean renewable energy. Thus, increased utilization of renewable energy overtime reduces air pollution and contributes to securing sustainable energy supply to satisfy future energy needs. The main purpose of this study is to investigate several sustainable hybrid renewable systems for electricity production in Iran. In this regard, critical indicators that have the strongest impact on the environment and energy sustainability are presented in this study. After a comprehensive review of environmental issues, data was collected from the meteorological organization and a techno-economic assessment was performed using HOMER software. It was concluded that the hybrid configuration composed of photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine, diesel generator and battery produced the best outcome with an energy cost of 0.151$/kWh and 15.6% return on investment. In addition, the results showed that with a higher renewable fraction exceeding 72%, this hybrid system can reduce more than 2000 Kg of CO2 emission per household annually. Although excess electricity generation is a challenge in stand-alone systems, by using the fuel cell, an electrolyzer, and a hydrogen tank unit, the amount of energy loss was reduced to less than one-sixth. These results show that selecting useful indicators such as appropriate implementation of policies of new enabling technologies and investments on renewable energy resources, has three potential benefits namely: CO2 reduction, greater sustainable electricity generation and provides an economic justication for stakeholders to invest in the renewable energy sector.
... The technical feasibility of a 100% renewable energy system has already been extensively assessed within the current literature. The majority of existing studies suggest that 100% renewable is technically and economically feasible with various key challenges addressed, including meeting peak demand with battery storage [60], management of low-demand periods [61], high investment costs in flexibilities and new capacities [62], extreme weather conditions [63], access to renewable data [64], constraints on geographical allocation of storage technology [65], and government regulations [66]. The importance of flexibility measures [67e69], storage [70] and interconnectors [71], centralised and decentralised electricity [72e74] are also addressed within the current literature. ...
Article
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Studies focusing on 100% renewable energy systems have emerged in recent years; however, existing studies tend to focus only on the power sector using exploratory approaches. This paper therefore undertakes a whole-system approach and explores optimal pathways towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. The analysis is carried out for Ireland, which currently has the highest share of variable renewable electricity on a synchronous power system. Large numbers of scenarios are developed using the Irish TIMES model to address uncertainties. Results show that compared to decarbonization targets, focusing on renewable penetration without considering carbon capture options is significantly less cost effective in carbon mitigation. Alternative assumptions on bioenergy imports and maximum variability in power generation lead to very different energy mixes in bioenergy and electrification levels. All pathways suggest that indigenous bioenergy needs to be fully exploited and the current annual deployment rate of renewable electricity needs a boost. Pathways relying on international bioenergy imports are slightly cheaper and faces less economic and technical challenges. However, given the large future uncertainties, it is recommended that further policy considerations be given to pathways with high electrification levels as they are more robust towards uncertainties.
... An analysis of three different scenarios was conducted for the region and it was found that a 100% RE system was cheaper than a business-as-usual scenario. Similar analyses for different 100% RE scenarios were conducted for individual countries in the region, in particular for Saudi Arabia [86], Turkey [91], Israel [92] and Iran [87,[93][94][95]; all with a comparable conclusion that a 100% RE system is technically feasible and economically viable. It is not only similar to results from the MENA region, but also similar to research done for comparable sun-rich countries in the world, such as Chile [96]. ...
Article
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Energy security analysis is a strong tool for policy makers. It allows them to formulate policies that would enhance energy systems by targeting necessary actions. In this study, the impacts of transitioning from a fossil fuels to a renewables dominated energy system on energy security is analysed for Jordan. A Best Policy Scenario was developed for the Jordanian energy system to trace the transition to a 100% renewable energy system. Energy security was analysed for the future system by a qualitative approach utilising colour codes. The results reveal that the primary energy demand increases from 64 TWh in 2015 to 130 TWh in 2050, dominated by electricity and followed by heat and bioenergy. This indicates that a high level of direct and indirect electrification is the key to transition towards a fully sustainable energy system. Renewable electricity generation is projected to increase from 0.1 TWh in 2015 to 110.7 TWh in 2050, with a solar photovoltaic share of 92%. The levelised cost of energy develops from 78 €/MWh in 2015 to 61 €/MWh in 2050. In 2050, this system will have zero greenhouse gas emissions, it will provide plenty of job opportunities and revenue generation. This proposed transition will enhance the energy security level of the Jordanian energy system in five of the six dimensions studied. The five dimensions that will be improved are availability, cost, environment, health, and employment, whereas the dimension on diversity will stay neutral. It can be concluded that Jordan can achieve a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 and such a transition will enhance the energy security level.
... The integration of multiple sectors brings additional benefits in the energy system, such as energy security, system flexibility and cost reduction. This has been verified by various studies [54,95,105,106]. The Integrated scenario is designed to supply current natural gas demand in non-energetic industrial gas sector by flexible generation of SNG. ...
Article
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This research explores the feasibility of 100% renewable energy (RE) systems for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for assumptions of the year 2030. The demand for three sectors are taken into account: power, non-energetic industrial gas and seawater desalination. Three strategical scenarios are discussed, namely Region, Area and Integrated, mainly differing in level of regional grid interconnection and sector coupling. Solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind energy are found to be the most cost-competitive RE sources with the highest potential in the region covering more than 90% of the generation capacity in all the considered scenarios. The variability of RE is solved via energy storage, surplus electricity generation and electricity grids. The estimated overall levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) lies between 40.3 and 52.8 €/MWh, depending on the scenarios. The total LCOE decreased by 17% as a result of sector coupling compared to the interconnected power sector alone. Power-to-gas technology not only functions as a seasonal storage by storing surplus electricity produced mainly from wind power and partially from solar PV, but provides also the required gas for the non-energetic industrial gas sector. Battery storage complements solar PV as a diurnal storage to meet the electricity demand during the evening and night time. Seawater reverse osmosis desalination powered by renewables could potentially be a proper solution to overcome the water challenges in the MENA region at affordable cost of 1.4 €/m³. A comparison with a BAU strategy shows that a 100% renewable energy-based power system is 55–69% cheaper than a BAU strategy without and with greenhouse gas emission costs.
... Projections indicate that global demand for primary energy is likely to lead to an additional growth of 37% by 2040 (International Energy Agency 2014). The destructive effects of fossil fuels on the environment and concerns about greenhouse gas emissions, global climate change, and the desire to find alternative and sustainable energy sources and the creation of potential job opportunities for future generations have led to a growing tendency to use renewable energy (Moosavi et al. 2018;Jahangiri and Shamsabadi 2017;Aghahosseini et al. 2018). The most important renewable energy sources are the solar, geothermal, biomass, landfills, wind and hydropower (Shin et al. 2018) and in the near future, with the advancement of energy storage technology, traditional energy sources seem to be replaced by renewable energy ...
Article
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Innovative and more sustainable methods of supplying energy needs in the world have led to a change in the dependency model for fossil fuels, including more integrated planning and adoption of new and motivating models regarding the use of renewable energy. Today, with the reduction of fossil fuel consumption in the world, the use of renewable energy has gained an important role in the global energy mix, but according to studies, the share of renewable energy in Iran’s energy mix is very small. Therefore, the present paper attempts to present all potentialities for obtaining clean energy in Iran by assessing the current state of renewable energies. The fact that, in the present time, the real value of energy carriers is not appreciated properly in Iran, on the one hand, and the lack of willingness to invest in these energies in the private sector, which may have been less protected, on the other hand, has caused the consumption level of fossil fuels to remain unchanged, which may have some disadvantages, such as environmental damage, in addition to their utilization. The authors of the paper are of the opinion that, on the one hand, by finding solutions for bank investment problems, easing restrictive laws, providing bank with guarantees by investors, as well as modifying parts of the guaranteed electricity purchase contract for accepting foreign banks to provide loans and obtain financing, and on the other hand, by facilitating the process of obtaining land permits and connecting to these power plants, Iran is not far from reaching a reasonable rank in the world.©2020. CBIORE-IJRED. All rights reserved
... There are decarbonization studies in all regions, with the focus being on Europe or European countries (11 of 30). Overall, regardless of region, wind power is most often the main RES selected for future decarbonization scenarios, with a mix of on-shore and off-shore solutions whenever possible [7,26,[145][146][147][148][149]136,[138][139][140][141][142][143][144], followed by solar [133,137,[150][151][152][153], and finally hydro [5,8,135,154]. Some studies propose an equivalent amount of a pair of RES for the region, such as in [155][156][157][158], with wind power always one of the RES of the pair. ...
Article
Understanding the relationship and quantifying the impacts of climate change on energy production is key to meeting our objectives and achieving a sustainable future. Here we review the current state of the art on the methodologies to forecast future climate, potential changes in renewable energy production and main findings regarding the role of renewables in the decarbonisation of the energy supply. Most studies used a climate model and power production equations to estimate future renewable output. The largest variation in power production estimated was for the long-term climate change scenarios, with non-significant variations reported for the short-term. The highest variability was found for wind power followed by hydro, both in the long-term, and overall low variability for solar in any period. Additionally, future decarbonisation efforts point to investments in wind power as one of the main pillars of reducing fossil fuel dependency. Current knowledge gaps about the uncertainty of modelling results and the combined effects of climate change on renewable energy resources. Future studies should focus on increasing the resolution of climate models and improving input data, as well as assess the entire electricity production system and not concentrate on a single energy source, which will aid in defining decarbonisation strategies.
... Iran has one of the largest gas and oil reservoirs in the world (Bilgin, 2009). Iran is bordered by 13 countries in the region, and its 83 million populations in 2019 have spread over an area of 1,648,195 square kilometers (Aghahosseini et al., 2018). The electricity sector is heavily subsidized by the government (Sabetghadam, 2006). ...
Article
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The Burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, fuel oil, natural gas, and diesel in power sector, has become one of the major sources of air pollutants, namely COX, NOX and SOX. These are thought to adversely affect the environment and human health. This paper assesses the external cost of electricity production from fossil fuel power plants in Iran using the Extern-E study. In addition, the future of average amount of emissions and their external cost was predicted according to the development of Iran's power generation system. Investigation of power generation planning in Iran from 2013 to 2023 shows that the average emissions of PM10, SO2, CO, and CO2 will reduce by 26.7%, 54.2%, 65.4%, and 20%, respectively, in fossil power plants. Moreover, it was predicted that the average external cost of power generation in 2023 would decrease up to 28.9%, 27.6%, and 23.1% in low, medium, and high scenarios, respectively. Moreover, analyzing the trend of Iran's electricity exportation and considering the prospect of Iran's energy sector, we claim that substitution of old gas power plants with high throughput combined cycle will help achieve the goal of Iran's power generation development more sustainably.
... Although this kind of research has been carried out at a different scale worldwide, the analysis has often been performed for the power sector and from a technical perspective [9]. In any case, most of the studies conclude that a 100 % RE electric system is technologically feasible [9] and also economically viable [10][11][12]. Some studies [13][14][15][16] at the country level on 100 % RE systems, for all end-use of energy, have revealed that it would be technically possible in the long-term, where electrification, sustainable fuels production and sectoral integration would be pivotal. ...
Article
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The aim of this research is to analyse the impact of renewable energy (RE) technologies and sector coupling via analysing the transition pathways towards a sustainable energy system in Chile. Four energy transition scenarios for the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors were assessed using the LUT Energy System Transition model. The current policy scenario was modelled and compared with three best policy scenarios. The results showed that the transition to a 100 % renewable-based energy system by 2050 is technically feasible. Further, such an energy system would be more cost-efficient than the current policy scenario to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. The results also indicate that Chile could reach carbon neutrality by 2030 and become a negative greenhouse gas emitter country by 2035. In a 100 % renewable-based energy system, solar photovoltaics (PV) would contribute 86 % of electricity generation, which would represent 83 % of the total final energy demand for the year 2050. This would imply the use of about 10 % of the available techno-economic RE potential of the country. Three vital elements (high level of renewable electrification across all sectors, flexibility and RE-based fuel production) and three key enablers (solar PV, interconnection and full sectoral integration) were identified in order to transition to a fully sustainable energy system. Chile could contribute to the global sustainable energy transition and advance to the global post-fossil fuels economy through the clean extraction of key raw materials and RE-based fuels and chemicals production.
... MW), and Isfahan (about 13.45 MW) have also designed and built several solar power plants. The amount of power of solar power plants in the provinces of Iran is shown inFigure 10, where Yazd, Fars, and Kerman provinces with a capacity of 68.5, 98.8, and 54 MW, respectively, are the top provinces producing electricity from energy in Iran[124]. ...
Article
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The world’s electricity generation has increased with renewable energy technologies such as solar (solar power plant), wind energy (wind turbines), heat energy, and even ocean waves. Iran is in the best condition to receive solar radiation due to its proximity to the equator (25.2969° N). In 2020, Iran was able to supply only 900 MW (about 480 solar power plants and 420 MW home solar power plants) of its electricity demand from solar energy, which is very low compared to the global average. Yazd, Fars, and Kerman provinces are in the top ranks of Iran, with the production of approximately 68, 58, and 47 MW using solar energy, respectively. Iran also has a large area of vacant land for the construction of solar power plants. In this article, the amount of electricity generation using solar energy in Iran is studied. In addition, the construction of a 10 MW power plant in the city of Sirjan is economically and technically analyzed. The results show that with US$16.14 million, a solar power plant can be built in the Sirjan region, and the initial capital will be returned in about four years. The results obtained using Homer software show that the highest maximum power generation is in July.
... Based on the "Wind Atlas" and the data from two stations in various parts of the country, the nominal capacity of these sites is approximately 2 MW or more. Based on some predictions, the amount of wind energy available in the country is estimated at 18000 MW that confirms the remarkable potential of the country to construct wind power plants and the economic investments in the wind energy industry (Aghahosseini et al. 2018;Razavieh et al. 2017). A German company has also been involved in the implementation of the wind potential assessment project in Iran as a consultant, and according to the company's studies, the potential of wind power available in the country is estimated at about 100,000 MW. Figure 3 shows the average wind speed at the height of 100 meter (m) in different regions of Iran. ...
Chapter
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The limited fossil fuels and the problems associated with greenhouse gas emissions have made clear needs for more and more attention to renewable energies. The high growth of energy consumption in Iran and the exodus of major oil and gas exporters since the end of this century seriously affect the country’s development. Additionally, short-term planning based on the current economic decision-making model can be the biggest obstacle to the growth of renewable energy (RE) production in many developing countries. In this chapter, while briefly introducing capacities and implementation of renewable energies in Iran, the importance of using renewable energies to obtain sustainable development in this country is discussed. Then, the benefits of sustainability in energy, management problems, technical and economic process, policies, planning, and general challenges that have failed to adequately develop these huge resources in the country are explained. Finally, appropriate solutions are provided to address such problems from a techno-economic perspective.
... Considering its plans to use renewable energy by 2030, Iran intends to annually extract a maximum of 7417 MW from photovoltaic energy systems to generate electricity [80]. Since this value is based on uncertain conditions and the demand parameter too is uncertain in the present study, its waiting range in the data-driven robust optimization model has been taken to be [3000 6000] MW. ...
... The first step in this direction was presented by Ben-Tal [47], who proposed a linear programming model to generate an answer that is justified for all data belonging to a convex set. The above model provides highly conservative solutions (highly conservative) concerning the optimality of the nominal problem to ensure consistency, meaning that in this approach, a large amount of optimization is required to ensure the Robust Optimization Approach of the solution. ...
Article
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Due to its geographical location, Iran has numerous capacities in renewable energy, and this issue has made the need to develop renewable energy on the authorities’ agenda. This underscores the need to provide an optimal model for developing renewable energy. Therefore, in this study, the main purpose was to provide an optimal renewable energy model. In line with this goal, by choosing the cost function as the objective function and considering the potential constraints of renewable energy (resource constraints), the amount of electricity consumption in each of the 16 electricity regions (demand constraint) and the limitation of renewable energy production coefficient (Technical constraints), the optimal model of renewable energy use was designed and solved using a solid programming model in LINGO software. The optimal model results show 15.19% small hydropower, 24.30% wind energy, 5.52% biomass energy, 6.13% is geothermal energy, 4.79% is tidal energy, and 44.07% solar energy. The optimum portfolio of renewable energy is estimated in this paper using the robust optimization approach. The results showed which renewable technology has the greater potential to take more share of the energy portfolio. The results of this investigation help policymakers to choose the most suitable renewable technologies to support.
... Fossil energy carriers provide more than 98% of energy in Iran. However, according to studies by Aghahseni et al. [24], renewable energy systems are a reliable and low-cost option for Iran in the medium-term future. In this paper, for the first time, 10 special and attractive tourist villages in Iran are selected, the superior features of each are expressed and then the possibility of creating an independent solar-diesel generator hybrid system in these villages is investigated using HOMER software. ...
Article
Rural tourism is an important factor in achieving economic, social, and cultural development. Due to the fact that in Iran, villages do not have access to permanent electricity or are associated with high power outages, so the provision of sustainable electricity through renewable energy can cause more tourists to choose these villages as their ultimate goal. Therefore, in this paper, for the first time, a hybrid system has been evaluated based on solar energy in 10 tourism target villages in Iran using HOMER software. The design of the system with real and up-to-date data on equipment and fossil fuel prices, taking into account transportation costs, as well as a comprehensive study of energy-economic-environmental with electricity generation approach for the development of rural tourism, has been examined in this article. The results showed that for the studied stations, the LCOE parameter was in the range of $ 0.615-0.722, the percentage of power supply by solar cells was in the range of 90-99% and the prevention of pollutants was 33.9-277 kg/year. According to the results, Meymand village is the most suitable, and Mazichal village is the unsuitable station in the field of energy supply required by solar cells. The production pollution in the studied stations is mainly CO2 and is due to the operational phase of the project and its amount is 979.5 kg/year. Given that rural tourism has grown and become a solution for development, the authors hope that the present work results can be used as a perspective to help energy and rural tourism decision-makers.
... Aghahosseini et al. [70] examined the possibility of 100% renewable electricity for Iran by 2030. They concluded that a full renewable-based power system is reliable, low-cost for Iran. ...
Article
Devising a concrete plan for power supply should conduct the best technology-capacity-time strategy while satisfying fuel, infrastructure, and trading constraints. Addressing sustainability concerning stakeholders' opinions aligned with upstream policies escalates the problem, demanding new reliable frameworks. This paper aims to develop an integrated simulation–optimization decision support system for electricity generation planning. A differential evolution algorithm simulates the future power supply configurations. A linear programming model characterizes the optimal pathways towards those futures. Multi-criteria decision-making methods are also included for determining the preference weights of sustainability indicators and ranking the scenarios. The proposed framework offers a sustainable plan for Iran by 2050. The sustainability criteria are tracked and compared with a business as usual (BAU) scheme. The results show that the broader deployment of wind turbine primarily, solar thermal subsequently, is the major source of difference in the sustainable expansion compared to BAU. Those technologies along with photovoltaics, contribute to 48% of the generation at the end of the planning horizon. However, the findings indicate that even the extensive utilization of renewable energy sources cannot guarantee sustainability improvement all through the planning period. Thus, supply-side plans should be appropriately supported by demand-side strategies.
... Climate change and energy depletion threat need a sustainable path of development focused on energy efficiency and renewable energy sources [4]. The environmental consequences of fossil fuels, limited natural sources and increased worldwide energy demand make energy sources more crucial than ever before [5]. ...
Article
In this paper, the design and performance of an energy hub to supply the demands of heating, cooling, electricity and freshwater for a coastal urban is considered. The modeling framework considers exergy and economic factors as well as greenhouse gas emissions. To optimally meet the demands of the energy hub, the consumed energy flows and their exchanges with the outside of the hub are determined. The optimization problem will be solved according to the environmental conditions, demands and design parameters of energy hub equipment. A comprehensive thermodynamic analysis of the energy hub is considered in order to take into account the economic and emissions outlook, along with renewable energy sources. In this study, two levels of integrated system modeling are simulated as "design" and "environmental-design" to optimize the energy hub with high accuracy. The results showed that the microturbine capacity decreased during the hours of sun exposure and power generation by the solar panels. As the heat generated by the Photovoltaic/Thermal (PV/T) system increases, the contribution of the adsorption chiller in cooling demand has increased. After performing optimization, the total annual costs in the urban area decreased by 30%, exergy efficiency increased by 28%, and carbon dioxide emissions decreased by 16%.
... Only 135 MW of wind power is in use, or 0.4% of the total electricity generation (Heidari et al., 2018;Najafi et al., 2015). But a recent study found that about 500 MW of wind power could be added on a commercial basis representing 1.7% of the national electricity production (Aghahosseini et al., 2018). The overall potential could be in the range 800 MW which could cover 2.5% of the electricity consumption (Morteza et al., 2018;Mostafaeipour et al., 2014). ...
Article
Shifting from fossil to clean energy sources is a major global challenge, but in particular for those countries with substantial fossil-fuel reserves and economies depending on fossil-fuel exports. Here we introduce an improved framework for renewable energy planning and decision-making to help such countries to more effectively harness their abundant renewable energy resources. We use Iran as a case for the analysis. The framework includes identifying and removing barriers that prevent the use of renewables. It is based on combining two models: Benefit, Opportunity, Cost, Risk (BOCR) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) models. In the analyses, the mutual weight of strategic criteria is employed such as technology, economy, energy vulnerability, security, global effects, and human wellbeing. Using the integrated model, we find that solar energy would be the preferential renewable energy source for Iran. Also, the role of infrastructures, policies, and administrative structures in renewable energy to facilitate their development was analyzed. The renewable energy policy-making framework presented is applicable to other countries as well.
Article
The world faces two pressing challenges: on the one hand, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C; on the other hand, enabling socio-economic development that is inclusive and equitable. These two challenges should not be seen as conflicting and should be addressed simultaneously. This is particularly true as we look forward to a post-COVID recovery efforts. The solution may partially rest on the transition to sustainable and renewable energy systems. The energy transition comprises presumptions of energy efficiency, affordability, reliability, and energy independence. And in developing countries, in particular, it also entails expectations of economic development, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability. Since most of the remaining renewable energy potential lies in developing countries, these countries will play a crucial role. This paper reviews the status of the energy transition in the Global South, by surveying scientific and grey literature and synthesising the wide scope of alternatives available to accelerate and enhance the transition to renewable energy systems. The alternatives and approaches found are encapsulated in three dimensions: technology, society, and policy. A roadmap presents the potential synergies that could be established across dimensions and sectors to aid the energy transition in developing countries. Concisely, the transition can be achieved by adopting and implementing technologies already commercially-available that improve the efficiency, affordability, and reliability of energy systems, by redefining and reclaiming citizens’ participation in energy planning and policy-making, and by democratically restructuring institutions and monitoring to boost transparency, accountability, and trust.
Article
Today, the importance of the electricity industry as a major industry and its vital role in launching and exploiting other industries cannot be ignored. Therefore, long-term planning and forecasting are needed for its development. Therefore, in this study, a novel integrated scenario planning (SP) approach based on the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method called I-MCDM-SP was presented. The proposed approach was applied in a case study to design scenarios for the Iranian electricity industry. In order to design the scenarios, different modes were considered for the two sectors of electricity generation and consumption. In this research, a SP method based on the cross-impact analysis and visualization methods was proposed, in which in order to design scenarios, key drivers (most important trends) should first be determined. Therefore, in this study, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model was used to select the most important trends. The results showed that for increasing, constant and decreasing modes of electricity consumption, "failure to correct the price of energy carriers," "laying down rules and regulations," and "improving the culture of energy consumption" with the weights of 0.337, 0.434, and 0.314 were selected as the best trends, respectively. To validate the proposed model, the AHP model was also compared with BWM and SWARA methods, which the results showed the accuracy of this model. Using this approach, four scenarios were designed that improvement and energy management scenarios were the most likely scenarios and sustainable development was the most optimistic scenario.
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In recent years, energy experts have paid considerable attention to renewable resource energy. The most widely renewable energy resource, in the world is solar energy. Therefore, optimizing the sustainable supply chain of solar energy production like photovoltaic helps policy-makers in this field. This paper proposes a two-phase method to elaborate a sustainable supply network design model for the solar photovoltaic supply chain. The first phase selects the suitable land for setting up solar photovoltaic power plants by the robust best-worst method, and the second phase develops the photovoltaic supply network design. Additionally, this work deals with the most significant concerns for policy-makers and investors, which are the uncertainty of radiation and demand parameters by a data-driven robust optimization model. As a significant result, it can be obtained with actualized data which the proposed uncertainty approach versus classical closed uncertainty convex sets has less conservatism. This advantage can impose less cost on the system due to its robustness. For validation of the proposed model, an in-depth case study is conducted. Its results show that solar power plants in Yazd, South Khorasan and Kerman are located as strategic decisions, and material flow between suppliers and wafer and ingot plants are determined as operational decisions. Also, on the tactical level, the number of vehicles required to transfer the flow of goods in the supply chain layers based on different time intervals and various transportation modes has been optimized.
Technical Report
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Excessive greenhouse gas emissions over the last decade have driven a move to a more sustainable energy System. Unreliability in continuous production poses chal lenges for deploying renewable sources in a real-time power deliverysystem. output intermittency, and reliability issues can be potentially addressed by emplo ying suitable combination of the two RE sources technologies (PV and WT) together with the use of an energy storage system, such as battery energy storage system (BESS), as a ty pe of power balancing medium. Different storage options could address this unreliability issue, but they consume electrical energy and create signicant costs and carbon emissions. An alternative is using electric vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles, with two-way power transfer capability (Gridto-Vehicle and Vehicle-to-Grid) ,as temporary distributed energy storage devices.vehicle-to-grid , While is a confident backup for renewable energy sources, can provide new opportunities such as reactive power support, active power regulation, tracking of variable renewable energy sources, load balancing, and current harmonic filtering at the disposal of distribution companies. These technologies has the ability to provide ancillary services, such as frequency control and spinning reserve and can improve the performance of the electricity grid in areas such as efficiency, stability, and reliability. in this thesis, first a improved model of photovoltaic generator is introduced as compared to generic model and then, the Benefits of two solar and wind resources is investigated by each other in a weak Low Voltage Distribution Grid and It is shown that these two resources together can eliminate the challenges of generating stochastic nature of renewable resources. also, the behavior a weak power distribution grid at the Point of Common Coupling (PCC) in the presence of a photovoltaic generator, wind and electric vehicle has been analyzed. Continue, transient stability has been analyzed in different fault conditions. Finally, a load frequency control model including aggregated EV battery storage is designed. Simulative analysis is performed in the DIgSILENT PowerFactory software. as well as using the device and its performance was evaluated .
Article
A key solution to imminent energy shortage and the protection of environment is to use much more of renewable resources of energy. There are various renewable resources of energy and choosing the most appropriate alternative is a complex task that involves several decision factors with different weights. Although nearly all decisions to be made by decision makers (DMs) in energy sector are subject to uncertainty, how to efficient handling ambiguity is an open problem. In this paper, a new multi criteria decision making framework is proposed to evaluate renewable energy alternatives under uncertainty. Considering the explicit advantages of D number in dealing with imprecise information and best worst method (BWM) in obtaining the criteria weight, we provide a new weighting method, which integrates BWM and D numbers, called D-BWM. D number is a more flexible extension of Dempster–Shafer theory and possesses key advantages in handling uncertainty in the process of decision making. The illustrative examples demonstrate that D-BWM can obtain more reliable weights and higher consistency compared with traditional BWM. Moreover, to rank the available energy resources, we explore the application of WASPAS and COPRAS in this context and an important remark about WASPAS is pointed out. The suggested method selects solar energy with the highest score in Iran. Fortunately, the introduced method provides an easy and systematic approach which can be straightforwardly extended to handle many decision problems in the field of sustainable development. Finally, this paper provides a brief discussion on the potentials and barriers to sustainable energy development in the country.
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A documentary analysis of energy consumption and generation in Mexico and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec was carried out; five categories were generated in order to organize the information. The main results are: for the achievement of sustainable development context problems the needs that afflict society and achieve the preservation of life; socioformation is aimed at improving living conditions; evolution in renewable energies, showing installed capacity year after year; the social conflicts in the region of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec mainly caused by the nonconformity in the distribution of the economic income that the wind projects leave behind. The main conclusion from this research is the need to actively involve the different actors of society that are involved in the development and implementation of renewable energies to reduce the rate of conflicts in the Isthmus region. It is recommended to continue analyzing renewable energies in Mexico and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
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Environmental and socioeconomic challenges facing many hydrocarbon-rich nations could help them evolve from hydrocarbon-based (black) into renewables-based (green) economies. In this paper, we present a case study for application of this Black Into Green (BIG) method for Iran. We show that with international cooperation Iran could indefinitely meet its energy and freshwater needs by leveraging large-scale renewable energy harvesting systems integrated with seawater pumped storage hydropower, reverse osmosis desalination, and enhanced distribution systems. This BIG transition could be facilitated by allocating a significant portion of Iran’s potential hydrocarbon-based income to acquire, develop, and deploy renewable energy technology that utilizes Iran’s immense solar and wind energy potential. Our analysis shows that developing just 1% of identified sites would provide over 30 TWh of annual renewable electricity generation and storage, and 221 million m3/day of renewably-powered desalination capacity to meet the freshwater needs of over 85% of its population. In addition to providing renewable energy design and manufacturing technology, the international community could also work with Iran to help evolve its nuclear power program toward small modular reactors for baseload power generation. Such an arrangement would contribute to regional and global security, and greatly reduce the Middle East’s carbon emissions of which Iran is the largest emitter. Results from this holistic approach could then serve as a model for the world economy to work with other resource-rich nations to reduce their environmental impact while modernizing their economies and helping them achieve the socioeconomic goals outlined in the UN’s Brundtland report.
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The current world situation under the coronavirus epidemic puts pressure on the commodity-based economy and signals the need to seek other options for diversifying export products while strengthening regional cooperation. Over the last four months of the epidemic period, Mongolia has temporarily suspended commodity transport to China which takes over 60% of total exports. Moreover, the fossil fuel market is in a critical situation, not only because of the current epidemic but also because the modern world has been gradually moving towards greener development. Today, we face two additional problems: strengthening the economic stability of the country and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This article analyses how renewable energy export could stabilize and support the country’s macroeconomic situation. The article proposes using green energy to diversify export options as soon as possible. This research work focused on the Northeast Asian Super Grid Initiative and Gobitec project by reviewing renewable energy impacts in environmental, economic, and social circumstances.
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Renewable energy (RE) policies can play an effective role in the development of renewable resources. The main goal of this paper was to conduct a content analysis on RE development policies in Iran’s five-year National Development Plan (NDP) by investigating upstream national documents. To achieve the goal, 29 upstream documents related to RE were identified and analyzed through a systematic literature review. Then, a qualitative content analysis was applied to analyze the documents. The results showed that Iran’s current RE policies need to be reviewed, reformed, and strengthened. For example, lack of sufficient attention to renewable heat and fuel was one of the deficiencies of RE policies in Iran’s five-year NDP. The decentralization of policymaking in the unified organization was also one of the weaknesses in the policymaking process of the RE. Iran can develop sustainable and clean RE policies by using sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower, wave, and tidal power. The paper concludes that, although RE policies have the potential for development in Iran due to environmental, social, and economic advantages, they could face some infrastructural, managerial, socio-cultural, and economic challenges. Accordingly, effective and innovative policymaking is required to meet such challenges.
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Wind energy production is critical issue as renewable energy sources is continuously increasing over the last decade. The main focus of this study is wind power production which its share is already less than one percent but planned to supply over thirty percent of electricity consumption by 2025. In this study, scenario planning as an increasingly popular method for facilitating multi-criteria decision making and strategic management tool is used. The methodology has been designed in three stages of identifying the critical factors and driving forces affecting wind power industry in Iran, generating plausible scenarios by scenario wizard through cross impact balance analysis and proposing some guidelines for most optimistic, realistic and pessimistic scenarios to eliminate the barriers and promote installed wind power capacity. Considering the score of the scenarios as well as their Impact Score, the scenarios are sorted from most optimistic to most pessimistic. The main contribution of the paper is preparing a realistic view and considering internal and international situations of Iran, local barriers, necessity of attracting foreign investment, know how transfer and technology for manufacturing of turbine over 1 MW, clearly define and analyze the critical factors and driving Forces influencing conceivable futures of wind energy in Iran and propose some guidelines enabling quick respond to forthcoming changes and precise planning to reach desired vision. The results of this research are supposed to developed scenarios provide a detailed review of Iran's long-term wind energy planning and minimize plausible wonders and shocks.
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In this paper, a designate of a small scale solar-wind power plant, integrated with battery storage was performed in order to supply the energy demand of a suburb region of Ahvaz, Iran. The aim of this work was to minimize the expenses by help of Homer software with consideration of the amount of the consumed electricity, solar irradiation and wind velocity for the considered region. To optimize the system, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method was used. The simulation results indicates that in the proposed plan, almost 45% of the costs are spent for purchasing, maintaining and replacing the batteries, while, the portion of solar and wind equipment are 15% and 20%, respectively.
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The ambitious energy target to achieve climate-neutrality in the European Union (EU) energy system raises the question of the feasibility of using only renewables across all energy sectors. Germany, as one of the leading industrialized countries of the EU, has adopted several climate action plans for the realistic implementation and maximum utilization of renewable energies in its future energy system. The literature review shows a clear gap in comprehensive techniques describing an open modeling approach for analyzing fully renewable and sector-coupled energy systems. This paper outlines an open modeling technique for analyzing the feasibility of the 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled energy system in Germany. It identifies the capacities and investment costs for different components and briefly evaluates the flexibility aspects of the system in terms of transmission grid expansion, energy storage, and dispatchable loads. Based on the open energy modeling framework (Oemof), an hourly optimization tool 'OSeEM-DE' is developed to investigate the German energy system. The model results show that a 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled system for electricity and building heat is feasible in Germany under different conditions. The investment capacities and component costs depend on the parametric variations of the developed scenarios. According to the model results, the annual investment costs vary between 17.6 – 26.6 bn €/yr for the volatile generators, and between 23.7 – 28.8 bn €/yr for the heat generators. Besides, the model suggests an investment of a minimum of 2.7 – 3.9 bn €/yr for electricity and heat storage. A comparison of the OSeEM-DE results with Fraunhofer ISE study reports shows that the percentage-wise energy mix composition and the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) from the model are within the plausible ranges. Finally, sensitivity analyses indicate that storage expansion and optimum grid extension between Northern and Southern Germany can maximize the provision of flexibility to the system and decrease the overall investment cost.
Article
This paper explores how the requirement for energy storage capacity will grow as the penetration of renewables increases. The UK’s electric grid is used as a case study. The paper aims to provide insight on what is the most economical solution to decarbonize the electric supply. A two-dimensional study varying the penetrations of wind and solar PV is carried out to identify the most appropriate generation mix for the country. The study is based on 9 years of demand and generation data with a 1hr resolution. It discusses the risk of underestimating the storage capacity needed, by failing to capture the inter-annual variability of renewables and analyzes the economic trade-off between over-generation (curtailment) and storage capacity. It also aims to determine the percentage of over-generation that minimizes the total cost of electricity. Results suggest that the UK could need a storage capacity of approximately 43TWh to decarbonize its electricity supply. This figure considers a generation mix of 84% wind + 16% solar PV, a roundtrip storage efficiency of 70%, and 15% of curtailment. Based on current costs of bulk energy storage technologies, this storage capacity translates into an investment of ∼£165.3 billion or approximately 7% of the country’s GDP.
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Global warming and climate change are becoming a global concern. In this regard, international agreements and initiatives have been launched to accelerate the use of renewable energy and to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Yemen is one of the countries signed on these agreements. However, Yemen is facing the problem that the structure of the power grid is fragile and the power shortage is serious. Accordingly, this paper aims to study the potential for renewable energy in Yemen and assess the technical and economic feasibility of hybrid energy systems. Firstly, this paper introduces the status and challenges of Yemen’s electricity sector, the status of renewable energy, and the status of GHG emission. Secondly, this study proposes the method of optimizing different configurations of off-grid hybrid (solar/wind/diesel engine) energy systems for electrifying various consumers in Taiz province, Yemen under three scenarios of energy strategies. The objective function is to seek the most optimal hybrid energy system that achieves the least cost and most advantageous technical performance, while instigating the best economic scenario of energy strategies. Finally, Homer pro software is used for simulation, optimization, and sensitivity analysis of the designed energy systems. The results found the best economically feasible scenario, the hybrid PV/wind/diesel energy system, among the other scenarios. A photovoltaic (PV)/wind energy system achieved the best technical performances of 100% CO2 reduction, with a 54.82% reduction in the net present cost (NPC) and cost of energy (COE); while the hybrid energy system (PV/wind/diesel engine) achieved the best economic cost of 61.95% reduction in NPC and COE, with a 97.44% reduction of CO2 emission.
Thesis
(In English Below) Obtener un sistema energético que contribuya a asegurar la estabilidad climática del planeta es uno de los desafíos más importantes de la primera mitad del siglo XXI. Con el propósito de contribuir en la búsqueda de vías que permitan superar la crisis climática global, pero desde acciones locales, y apelando a que la tecnología fotovoltaica (FV) cuenta con excelentes características para habilitar la transición energética que se necesita, esta tesis doctoral tiene como principal objetivo analizar, desde un enfoque global y local, el rol que la energía solar FV descentralizada podría jugar en la transición energética sostenible de un país y territorio específico. Para esto, se emplea como caso de estudio a Chile y particularmente, una de las regiones que lo conforma: la región de Aysén. Tanto Chile como la región de Aysén tienen aspectos que son un reflejo de la crisis global del Antropoceno, pero también cuentan con una gran oportunidad para implementar soluciones ejemplares basadas en sus enormes potenciales de energía renovable (ER). Para realizar dicho análisis se han considerado todos los sectores consumidores de energía y se utilizó una herramienta desarrollada por la Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), con la que se modelaron escenarios de transición energética hacia un sistema 100 % basado en ER para Chile, desde un enfoque global y local, donde, en el enfoque local se incluyó a la región de Aysén. Los resultados revelan que, tanto en Chile como en la región de Aysén, lograr un sistema energético 100% renovable para el año 2050 es técnicamente factible y económicamente viable. En ese año, dependiendo del enfoque y escala territorial, la contribución a la generación eléctrica por parte de la tecnología FV en su conjunto varía entre 39–86 % y, la contribución de la FV descentralizada varía entre 9–12 %; no obstante, la FV descentralizada aporta entre un 27–52 % de la electricidad final que es mayormente consumida en las ciudades por los sectores eléctrico, térmico y transporte. A su vez, la energía solar FV descentralizada crearía en Chile entre el 9–15 % de los empleos anuales directos durante el periodo de transición. Es decir, entre los años 2020 y 2050, el sector de la FV descentralizada crearía 174.274 empleos directos. Además, los resultados también revelan que Chile puede alcanzar la neutralidad en emisiones de carbono en el año 2030 y, se puede convertir en un país emisor negativo de gases de efecto invernadero a partir del año 2035. Todo esto sería posible utilizando menos del 10 % del potencial tecno-económico de ER disponible en este país. Tras los resultados del trabajo de investigación realizado en esta tesis doctoral, se concluye que la energía solar FV es un elemento vital en la transición energética sostenible, así como también, alcanzar un sistema energético totalmente desfosilizado es más importante que lograr la neutralidad en las emisiones de carbono. Esto último se debe a que una transición a nivel país hacia un sistema energético 100 % renovable implicaría beneficios socio-ambientales y socioeconómicos locales, con impactos globales positivos que se necesitan con urgencia. Si Chile implementara una vía de transición hacia un sistema energético 100 % renovable, no solo podría convertirse en un caso ejemplar en el avance hacia una economía post-combustibles fósiles, si no que también podría contribuir a la transición energética global: a través de la extracción limpia de materias primas clave (como lo son el cobre y el litio), y a través de la producción de combustibles y químicos basados en ER. En resumen, la tecnología FV puede contribuir en la mitigación del cambio climático y la reducción de los niveles de contaminación del aire en las ciudades, al tiempo que impulsa el crecimiento económico local; todo esto, de una manera más descentralizada y participativa. ///////////////////////////////////////// Obtaining an energy system that will help to ensure the climactic stability of the planet is one of the most important challenges of the first half of the 21st century. In order to contribute to the search for ways to overcome the global climate crisis, from local activities, and appealing to the fact that photovoltaic (PV) technology has excellent characteristics which could enable the energy transition that is needed, this doctoral thesis has as its main objective the analysis, from a global and local approach, the role that decentralized solar PV could play in the sustainable energy transition of a specific country and territory. For this purpose, Chile and one of its regions (the Aysén region) are used as a case study. Both Chile and the Aysén region have aspects that reflect the global crisis of the Anthropocene, but they also present a great opportunity to implement exemplary solutions, based on their enormous renewable energy (RE) potentials. To carry out this analysis, all energy-consuming sectors were considered. A tool developed by the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) was used, with which energy transition scenarios were modelled towards a 100% RE-based system for Chile, from a global and local approach. The Aysén region was included in the local approach. The results reveal that, both in Chile and in the Aysén region, achieving a 100% RE system by 2050 is technically feasible and economically viable. In that year, depending on the approach and territorial scale, the contribution to electricity generation by PV technology as a whole would vary between 39–86%. The contribution of decentralized PV would be between 9–12%. However, decentralized PV would contribute 27–52% of the final electricity that is mostly consumed in cities by the power, heat and transport sectors. In turn, decentralized solar PV would create between 9–15% of annual direct jobs in Chile during the transition period. In other words, between 2020 and 2050, the decentralized PV sector would create 174,274 direct jobs. In addition, the results also reveal that Chile could achieve carbon neutrality in 2030 and could become a negative greenhouse gas emitter by 2035. All of this would be possible by using less than 10% of the techno-economic potential of RE available in this country. From the results of the research work carried out in this doctoral thesis, it is concluded that solar PV is a vital element in the sustainable energy transition. We also find that achieving a fully defossilized energy system is more important than achieving carbon neutrality. The latter is due to the fact that a transition at the country level towards a 100% RE system would imply local socio-environmental and socio-economic benefits, with positive urgently needed global impacts. If Chile implements a transition path towards a 100% RE system, it could not only become an exemplary case in moving towards a post-fossil fuel economy, but could also contribute to the global energy transition through the clean extraction of key raw materials (such as copper and lithium), and through the production of RE-based fuels and chemicals. In summary, PV technology can contribute to mitigating climate change and reducing air pollution levels in cities, while boosting local economic growth, doing all of this in a more decentralized and participatory way.
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We develop roadmaps to transform the all-purpose energy infrastructures (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry, agriculture/forestry/fishing) of 139 countries to ones powered by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The roadmaps envision 80% conversion by 2030 and 100% by 2050. WWS not only replaces business-as-usual (BAU) power, but also reduces it ∼42.5% because the work: energy ratio of WWS electricity exceeds that of combustion (23.0%), WWS requires no mining, transporting, or processing of fuels (12.6%), and WWS end-use efficiency is assumed to exceed that of BAU (6.9%). Converting may create ∼24.3 million more permanent, full-time jobs than jobs lost. It may avoid ∼4.6 million/year premature air-pollution deaths today and ∼3.5 million/year in 2050; ∼$22.8 trillion/year (12.7 ¢/kWh-BAU-all-energy) in 2050 air-pollution costs; and ∼$28.5 trillion/year (15.8 ¢/kWh-BAU-all-energy) in 2050 climate costs. Transitioning should also stabilize energy prices because fuel costs are zero, reduce power disruption and increase access to energy by decentralizing power, and avoid 1.5°C global warming.
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Essentially, there are some effectiveness parameters on variation of measured wind data including season and date, hub height, roughness of land and climate conditions at a specific location. Wind potential assessment based on specifications of wind (data) as the most important factors can be performed for each sites. In this paper, the measured data of wind such as wind speed and wind direction for three year from 2007 to 2009 at different elevations (10, 30 and 40 m) were statically evaluated for Lootak of Zabol. The potential of wind energy as one of the renewable energies resources for power production were evaluated. The three years mean value of some parameters such as wind energy density, wind speed, standard deviation, Weibull parameters (k and c), the most probable wind speed and the optimal wind speed during the whole three years were calculated. Moreover, among five different wind turbines, the monthly and annual variations of capacity factor were investigated for choosing the suitable wind turbine.
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A primary endeavor of NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project is to synthesize and analyze data that is useful to the renewable energy industry on a global scale [1]. One goal of POWER is to provide data to the renewable energy industry in quantities and terms compatible with this industries design and engineering tools and for locations where ground site data is not readily available. The Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data set and web site have been a valuable resource for a growing user community involved in renewable energy. The POWER project continues to improve upon information available via the SSE web site. This paper describes the availability of higher spatial resolution assimilated data in a new release of SSE (i.e. SSE 6.0) that extends the period of coverage to 22 years.
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Energy crisis is one of the issues which have imposed many changes in the development of various technologies around the world. Every-year renewal of this crisis in different countries has led many of them to move towards alternative resources like renewable energies, and also to make changes in their energy consumption in order to expand the application of these resources. By taking into account of Iran's high potential in renewable energies, and also its scheme to go towards actualizing the prices of energy carriers, and with the help of designing a flexible and dynamic structure and removing the existing obstacles, it is necessary to analyze the infrastructures, policies and administrative structures in the field of renewable energies in the country to accelerate their development. This article tries to review the potentials of "renewable energies" (RE) in Iran and its current situation of RE related industries with an emphasis on achieving defined goals and objectives for the fourth national development plan, and also to discusses the barriers and causes of non-achievement of these objectives.
Book
In the current push to convert to renewable sources of energy, many issues raised years ago on the economics and the difficulties of siting energy storage are once again being raised today. When large amounts of wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources are added to existing electrical grids, efficient and manageable energy storage becomes a.
Thesis
As electricity generation based on volatile renewable resources is subject to fluctuations, data with high temporal and spatial resolution on their availability is indispensable for integrating large shares of renewable capacities into energy infrastructures. The scope of the present doctoral thesis is to enhance the existing energy modelling environment REMix in terms of (i.) extending the geographic coverage of the potential assessment tool REMix-EnDaT from a European to a global scale, (ii.) adding a new plant siting optimization module REMix-PlaSMo, capable of assessing siting effects of renewable power plants on the portfolio output and (iii.) adding a new alternating current power transmission model between 30 European countries and CSP electricity imports from power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East via high voltage direct current links into the module REMix-OptiMo. With respect to the global potential assessment tool, a thorough investigation is carried out creating an hourly global inventory of the theoretical potentials of the major renewable resources solar irradiance, wind speed and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.45°x0.45°. A detailed global land use analysis determines eligible sites for the installation of renewable power plants. Detailed power plant models for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power allow for the assessment of power output, cost per kWh and respective full load hours taking into account the theoretical potentials, technological as well as economic data. The so-obtined tool REMix-EnDaT can be used as follows: First, as an assessment tool for arbitrary geographic locations, countries or world regions, deriving either site-specific or aggregated installable capacities, cost as well as full load hour potentials. Second, as a tool providing input data such as installable capacities and hourly renewable electricity generation for further assessments using the modules REMix-PlasMo and OptiMo. The plant siting tool REMix-PlaSMo yields results as to where the volatile power technologies photovoltaics and wind are to be located within a country in order to gain distinct effects on their aggregated power output. Three different modes are implemented: (a.) Optimized plant siting in order to obtain the cheapest generation cost, (b.) a minimization of the photovoltaic and wind portfolio output variance and (c.) a minimization of the residual load variance. The third fundamental addition to the REMix model is the amendment of the module REMix-OptiMo with a new power transmission model based on the DC load flow approximation. Moreover, electricity imports originating from concentrating solar power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East are now feasible. All of the new capabilities and extensions of REMix are employed in three case studies: In case study 1, using the module REMix-EnDaT, a global potential assessment is carried out for 10 OECD world regions, deriving installable capacities, cost and full load hours for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power. According to the latter, photovoltaics will represent the cheapest technology in 2050, an average of 1634 full load hours could lead to an electricity generation potential of some 5500 PWh. Although CSP also taps solar irradiance, restrictions in terms of suitable sites for erecting power plants are more severe. For that reason, the maximum potential amounts to some 1500 PWh. However, thermal energy storage can be used, which, according to this assessment, could lead to 5400 hours of full load operation. Onshore wind power could tap a potential of 717 PWh by 2050 with an average of 2200 full load hours while offshore, wind power plants could achieve a total power generation of 224 PWh with an average of 3000 full load hours. The electricity generation potential of hydro power exceeds 3 PWh, 4600 full load hours of operation are reached on average. In case study 2, using the module REMix-PlaSMo, an assessment for Morocco is carried out as to determine limits of volatile power generation in portfolios approaching full supply based on renewable power. The volatile generation technologies are strategically sited at specific locations to take advantage of available resources conditions. It could be shown that the cost optimal share of volatile power generation without considering storage or transmission grid extensions is one third. Moreover, the average power generation cost using a portfolio consisting of PV, CSP, wind and hydro power can be stabilized at about 10 €ct/kWh by the year 2050. In case study 3, using the module REMix-OptiMo, a validation of a TRANS-CSP scenario based upon high shares of renewable power generation is carried out. The optimization is conducted on an hourly basis using a least cost approach, thereby investigating if and how demand is met during each hour of the investigated year. It could be shown, that the assumed load can safely be met in all countries for each hour using the scenario's power plant portfolio. Furthermore, it was proven that dispatchable renewable power generation, in particular CSP imports to Europe, have a system stabilizing effect. Using the suggested concept, the utilization of the transfer capacities between countries would decrease until 2050.
Article
Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
Article
The optimum design for a stand-alone hybrid desalination scheme, able to fulfill the fresh water demand of a remote area located in Davarzan, Khorasan, Iran, is determined and investigated. The scheme consists of a reverse-osmosis desalination unit powered by solar and wind electricity production systems with battery energy storage. To predict the energy production, data from many weather stations are required, and a new forecasting strategy is proposed for weather related parameters (solar irradiance, wind speed, and ambient temperature). The system is implemented and tested using real data from northeastern Iran. To determine the optimal values of parameters for the hybrid renewable energy system that satisfy the load in the most cost-effective way (minimizing the life cycle cost and not exceeding the maximum allowable loss of power supply probability), the use of harmony search and a combination of harmony search with chaotic search is proposed. As an efficient heuristic, harmony search is easy to implement and can escape from local optima. The decision variables (number of batteries, total swept area of the rotating turbine blades, and total area occupied by the set of photovoltaic panels) are optimized using a harmony search-based chaotic search for the most cost-effective system.
Article
Due to the limited resources of fossil fuels, energy supply–demand management and planning especially in the supply-side of the energy system have increasingly become very important. This article assesses Iran’s energy system in order to find the main causes of the considerably high energy intensity in the country compared with similar economies in size and production. Accordingly, fundamental policies and strategies are proposed in order to manage the recognized bottlenecks. The conclusions suggest strongly that not only the fossil-based energy system, but also incompatible patterns of production and consumption in the reference energy system as well as the use of conventional technologies in the energy system have contributed to the high level of energy intensity in Iran. Therefore, production cannot supply the domestic demand, especially in the case of natural gas, which could decrease energy security by increasing the supply risks in the near future.
Conference Paper
With growing demand for LNG and transportation fuels such as diesel, and concerns about climate change and emission cost, this paper introduces new value chain design for LNG and transportation fuels and respective business cases for Iran, taking into account hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chains are based on renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-togas (PtG) or power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into SNG (which is finally liquefied into LNG) or synthetic liquid fuels, mainly diesel, respectively. The RE-LNG or RE-diesel can be shipped to everywhere in the world. The calculations for the hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis, methanation (H2tSNG) and hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL) are done based on both annual full load hours (FLh) and hourly analysis. Results show that the proposed RE-LNG or RE-diesel value chains are competitive for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 118-187 USD/barrel (24 – 31 USD/MBtu of LNG production cost) and 102-168 USD/barrel (0.68 – 0.86 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-LNG or RE-diesel could become competitive to conventional fuels from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. The RE-PtX value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy. This could be an opportunity for Iran to use its abundant source of solar and wind and the available conventional fossil fuel transportation infrastructure to export carbon neutral hydrocarbons around the world where the environmental limitations on conventional hydrocarbons is getting tighter and tighter.
Conference Paper
Iran is the 17th most populated country in the world with several regions facing high or extremely high water stress. It is estimated that half the population live in regions with 30% of Iran’s freshwater resources. The combination of climate change, increasing national water demand and mismanagement of water resources is forecasted to worsen the situation in Iran. This has led to an increase in interest in the use of non-traditional water supplies to meet the increasing water demand. In this paper it is shown how the future water demand of Iran can be met through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants powered by 100% renewable energy systems, at a cost level competitive with that of current SWRO plants powered by fossil plants in Iran. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 water demand of Iran is estimated to be about 215 million m3/day compared to the 175,000 m3/day installed SWRO desalination capacity of the total 809,607 m3/day desalination capacity in the year 2015. The optimal hybrid renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a combination of solar photovoltaics (PV) fixed-tilted, PV single-axis tracking, Wind, Battery and Power-to-Gas (PtG) plants. The levelized cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.50 €/m3 – 2 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The total system required to meet the 2030 Iranian water demand is estimated to cost 1177 billion € of initial investments. Thus, our work proves that the water crisis in Iran can be averted in a lucrative and sustainable manner.
Conference Paper
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, comprised of 19 countries, is currently facing a serious challenge to supply their growing economies with secure, affordable and clean electricity. The MENA region holds a high share of proven crude oil and natural gas reserves in the world. Further, it is predicted to have increasing population growth, energy demand, urbanization and industrialization, each of which necessitates a comparable expansion of infrastructure, resulting in further increased energy demand. When planning this expansion, the effects of climate change, land use change and desertification must be taken into account. The MENA region has an excellent potential of renewable energy (RE) resources, particularly solar PV and wind energy, which can evolve to be the main future energy sources in this area. In addition, the costs of RE are expected to decrease relative to conventional energy sources, making a transition to RE across the region economically feasible. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for the MENA region in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Three scenarios have been evaluated according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 61 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 55 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 37 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by 6% in the system compared to the non-integrated sectors. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.
Article
Wind speed (WS) and solar radiation (SR) are innately uncertain and bring about more uncertainties in the power system. Therefore, due to the nonlinear nature of photovoltaic cells and wind turbines, the mean values of solar radiation and wind speed cannot be assuredly measured and a small change in these values alters the results of the study. Furthermore the mean values of WS and SR occur with a low degree of probability, that is, if the mean values one utilized in system design, it will mean that not all possible states have been considered. Therefore, in hybrid system analysis, it has been suggested that the degree of uncertainty be taken into calculation in order for all possibilities to be covered. For this purpose, the Monte Carlo Simulation Method and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm have been used in this article. The proposed methodology is applied to a real case study and the results are discussed. In this regard, an off-grid hybrid multisource system (photovoltaic-wind-battery) is considered, modeled, optimally sized, and compared of different seasons in terms of the total annual cost and uncertainty in WS, SR, and electricity demand.
Article
This study demonstrates how seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plants, necessary to meet increasing future global water demand, can be powered solely through renewable energy. Hybrid PV–wind–battery and power-to-gas (PtG) power plants allow for optimal utilisation of the installed desalination capacity, resulting in water production costs competitive with that of existing fossil fuel powered SWRO plants. In this paper, we provide a global estimate of the water production cost for the 2030 desalination demand with renewable electricity generation costs for 2030 for an optimised local system configuration based on an hourly temporal and 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to about 2374 million m3/day. The levelised cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.59 €/m3–2.81 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The global system required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to cost 9790 billion € of initial investments. It is possible to overcome the water supply limitations in a sustainable and financially competitive way.
Article
An optimization model is developed to determine the most advantageous size of autonomous hybrid photovoltaic/wind turbine/fuel cell, wind turbine/fuel cell and photovoltaic/fuel cell systems for electrification of a remote area involving five homes (1 block) located in Namin, Ardabil, Iran. The model is developed based on three decision variables related to the system renewable energy components: number of storage tanks, total swept area by the rotating turbine blades and total area occupied by the set of photovoltaic panels. The former is an integer decision variable, while the latter two are continuous decision variables. All the components are modeled and an objective function is defined based on minimizing the life cycle cost and satisfying the maximum allowable loss of power supply probability. To determine optimal values of the variables that satisfy the load in the most cost-effective way, the use of simulated annealing and a combination of simulated annealing with harmony search and chaotic search is proposed. The simulation results indicate that the grid-independent hybrid photovoltaic/wind turbine/fuel cell system is the most cost-effective for supplying the block's electrical energy demands and that the simulated annealing-based harmony search algorithm yields more promising results than the other algorithms.
Article
In order to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system, an hourly resolved model has been created based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constrains. The model is comprised of five scenarios for 100% renewable energy power systems in North-East Asia with different high voltage direct current transmission grid development levels, including industrial gas demand and additional energy security. Renewables can supply enough energy to cover the estimated electricity and gas demands of the area in the year 2030 and deliver more than 2000 TW hth of heat on a cost competitive level of 84 €/MW hel for electricity. Further, this can be accomplished for a synthetic natural gas price at the 2013 Japanese liquefied natural gas import price level and at no additional generation costs for the available heat. The total area system cost could reach 69.4 €/MW hel, if only the electricity sector is taken into account. In this system about 20% of the energy is exchanged between the 13 regions, reflecting a rather decentralized character which is supplied 27% by stored energy. The major storage technologies are batteries for daily storage and power-to-gas for seasonal storage. Prosumers are likely to play a significant role due to favourable economics. A highly resilient energy system with very high energy security standards would increase the electricity cost by 23% to 85.6 €/MW hel. The results clearly show that a 100% renewable energy based system is feasible and lower in cost than nuclear energy and fossil carbon capture and storage alternatives.
Book
Presenting boundary conditions for the economic and environmental utilization of geothermal technology, this is the first book to provide basic knowledge on the topic in such detail. The editor is the coordinator of the European Geothermic Research Initiative, while the authors are experts for the various geological situations in Europe with high temperature reservoirs in shallow and deep horizons. With its perspectives for R&D in geothermic technology concluding each chapter, this ready reference will be of great value to scientists and decision-makers in research and politics, as well as those giving courses in petroleum engineering, for example.
Article
Iran is rich in energy resources and oil has dominated the politico-socio-economic life of this country, but nevertheless Iran has no documented policy and vision for its massive resources. This poses a major challenge to policy makers and the society. It is necessary to have a clear picture of Iran׳s energy status in recent years showing the flow of energy supply, demand, consumption, import and export to know how the energy situation in Iran is and identify its weaknesses and strengths. This paper is the first step in that direction and presents an overview of Iran energy situation and the potential and current state of renewable energy application. The status of energy in Iran is compared to world’s energy status via five key factors, and finally this comparison shows hints for designing roadmap of energy for Iran to attain sustainable and secure energy in long term. The novel contribution of this work is the STEEP analysis of Iran energy situation for designing the long-term supporting mechanisms for sustainable and secure energy for Iran based on Social (S), Technological (T), Economical (E), Environmental (E) and Political (P) criteria.
Article
Hybrid renewable energy systems, combining various kinds of technologies, have shown relatively high Q2 capabilities to solve reliability problems and have reduced cost challenges. The use of hybrid electricity generation/ storage technologies as off-grid stand-alone systems is reasonable to overcome related shortcomings. Solar and wind energy are two rapidly emerging renewable ones that have precedence in comparison to the other kinds. In this regard, the present paper studies four specific locations in Iran, which are candidates for research centers. Based on the solar radiation and average wind speed maps, techno-economically optimized systems are designed by simulating behavior of various combinations of renewable energy systems with different sizing, including wind turbine (WT), photovoltaic (PV), fuel cell (FC), and battery banks. According to the results obtained by a computer program, it is concluded that the hybrid systems including WT and PV with battery backup are less costly compared to the other systems. Moreover, we found that among non-hybrid systems, in most regions of Iran's territory PVs are more economical than WTs. Despite of its advantages, FC has not been applied in the optimal systems due to its high initial cost and its low replacement life.
Article
Indicators, Natural gas, Oil, Renewables, Non-member countries, Statistics, CO2, Prices, Hydropower, Nuclear, Supply, Electricity, Coal
Conference Paper
Photovoltaics (PV) is expected to become one of the cheapest forms of electricity generation during the next decades. The Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of PV has already reached grid parity with retail electricity in many markets and is approaching wholesale parity in some countries. In this paper, it is estimated that the PV LCOE in main European markets is going to decrease from 2015 to 2030 by about 45% and to 2050 by about 60%. The LCOE for utility-scale PV in Europe will be about 25-45 €/MWh in 2030 and about 15-30 €/MWh in 2050 depending on the location. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the most important parameter together with the annual irradiation in the calculation of the PV LCOE. The uncertainty in capital and operational expenditure (CAPEX and OPEX) is relatively less important while the system lifetime and degradation have only a minor effect. The work for this paper has been carried out under the framework of the EU PV Technology Platform.
Article
With the heightened awareness of global environmental issues of greenhouse gas emissions by fossil fuels as non-renewable energy resources, the application of renewable energies (REs) has emerged as one of the most significant policies in most of the countries throughout the world. Although Iran is blessed with high potential of RE resources such as solar, wind, and geothermal, development of such resources, however, has been neglected due to the various reasons. Considering the long time needed to develop and deploy RE resources, a long-term planning is required in this area. Therefore, applying the scenario planning method, this research develops four scenarios in Iran's 2025 vision, through a combination of the changes in energy consumption and RE generation: green path, standardization , fossil energy, and non-targeted subsidy. Developed scenarios are then compared with the government plan for utilizing REs in 10 % of total electric power generation in a 20-year vision. Results indicate that standardization and fossil energy are the most probable scenarios. Green path is the most optimistic scenario for the country, suggesting the goal of producing 10 % of total electricity share through REs could be achievable by 2025. And the non-targeted subsidy is the most pessimistic and unexpected scenario for the country.
Article
This paper introduces the resource, status and prospect of solar energy in Iran briefly. Among renewable energy sources, Iran has a high solar energy potential. The widespread deployment of solar energy is promising due to recent advancements in solar energy technologies. Therefore, many investors inside and outside the country are interested to invest in solar energy development. Iran’s total area is around 1600,000 km2 or 1.6×1012 m2 with about 300 clear sunny days in a year and an average 2200 kW-h solar radiation per square meter. Considering only 1% of the total area with 10% system efficiency for solar energy harness, about 9 million MW h of energy can be obtained in a day. The government’s goal on 2012 was to install 53,000 MW capacity plants for electricity generation. To reach this goal, it was assumed that the new gas-fired plants along with the hydroelectric and nuclear power generating plants could be financed by independent power producers including those of foreign investment. Based on the fifth 5 year Socio-economic and Cultural Development Plan, the private sector was expected to have a share of at least 270 MW in renewable energy development. The existing small capacity solar energy plants are in Shiraz, Semnan, Taleghan, Yazd, Tehran and Khorasan. Based on the specified available solar trough technology, solar area, average solar hours and average solar direct irradiation, the technical potential of solar electricity was estimated to be 14.7 TWe. Under the current energy policies, the combined solar, wind and geothermal power plants are economically viable. These huge RES’s potential can be realized assuming the availability of technology, investment capital, human expertise and the other resources along with a long-term driven renewable energy policy. Due to high growth rate of electricity demand in Iran, the nominal installed capacity has increased by 8.9% per annum during 2001-2007. In the reference scenario, the share of RES in total installed electricity capacity is expected to be about 2% in 2030. It is expected that the cumulative RES installed capacity will reach 2.8 GW in 2030. This requires more than 2800 million US dollar investment during 2010-2030.
Article
The paper examines the international distribution of energy intensities as a conventional proxy indicator of energy efficiency and sustainability in the consumption of resources, by employing some descriptive tools from the analysis of inequality and polarization. The analysis specifically focuses on the following points: firstly, inequalities are evaluated synthetically based on diverse summary measures and Lorenz curves; secondly, different factorial decompositions are undertaken that assist in investigating some explanatory factors (weighting factors, multiplicative factors and decomposition by groups); and thirdly, an analysis is made of the polarization of intensities when groups of countries are defined endogenously and exogenously. The results obtained have significant implications from both academic and political perspectives.
Article
Water has a significant role in all our daily activities and its overall consumption is growing every day because of increasing scheme of mankind living standards. Iran is located in the dry belt of the earth, where nearly 70% of its area is located in arid and semi-arid regions. At the present time, Iran is experiencing a serious water crisis. It has been projected that the total per capita annual renewable water of the country will reach to about 800 m3 by 2021, which is less than the global threshold of 1000 m3. In this context, seawater desalination seems to be a potential solution to meet the water supply and demand balance in Iran as the country is surrounded by three main water bodies of the Caspian Sea at northern and Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman at the southern borders. Annually, about 120 million cubic meter of freshwater supply is from conventional desalination plants centralized in the southern coastal regions of Iran. The fossil-fuel powered desalination systems are no longer sustainable to overcome the water crisis in the country due to both depletion risks of available energy resources and increase of greenhouse gas emissions. This is while that Iran has excellent solar energy potentials of about 15.3 kWh/m2/day, which can effectively be harnessed to run desalination processes. Therefore, in the modern time, solar desalination is an emerging solution to close the water gap in the country by considering the required change in terms of policy, financing, and regional cooperation to make this alternative method of desalination a success.
Article
Since the beginning of the last century, energy affairs have always been taken into global consideration due to their effects on economies, policies, security and the environment. Fossil fuels have been the first recourse for global energy supply needs (80% of total energy consumption); nonetheless, owing to the production of greenhouse gases, they are gradually being replaced with renewable energy resources. In addition, renewable energy resources are perpetual, unlike fossil fuels, which may be exhausted in less than one century. From 2005 to 2010 (coinciding with Iran's fourth development program), renewable energy resources enjoyed a double-digit global growth rate as a result of environmentally friendly perception and a reduction in equipment price. Some policies and strategies were globally adopted to support renewable energy resources (Feed-In-Tariff, subsidies, etc.). Iran began utilizing renewable resources from the early 1990s and set targets and policies for renewable energy resource utilization in the fourth development program. However, Iran's trend has not aligned with global trends, and it appears that its enormous fossil fuel reserves overshadow the growth of renewable energy resources in the country. In this paper, the status, achievements and policies of Iran during the fourth development program will be discussed and compared with global trends.
Conference Paper
Case studies for very large scale PV (VLS-PV) in desert areas, by the IEA PVPS Task8 study, showed that the Gobi desert area of Mongolia is one of the most promising candidate sites for VLS-PV. It is expected that the demonstration phase will be started in the near-term, and it is intended that a concrete sustainable development scheme would be designed and that the capacity of the total PV system, VLS-PV, will reach GW-scale. Further, thinking about a concept of 'Renewable Energy Super Grid' in North-East Asia, the VLS-PV systems should play important roles.
Article
In this paper, an optimization model is developed to determine the best size of a stand-alone hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) for electrification to a remote area located in Kerman, Iran. The model is defined based on three decision variables related to the system components, namely, total area occupied by the set of PV panels (a continuous variable), total swept area by the rotating turbines’ blades (a continuous variable) and the number of batteries (an integer variable). In order to find the optimal values of the variables, particle swarm optimization (PSO) and some of its variants are proposed. Due to the non-linearity and non-convexity of the sizing problem, PSO which is an efficient population-based heuristic technique can be a good candidate. Particles of PSO probe the search space to minimize the life cycle cost (LCC), ensuring at the same time certain level of system reliability. Simulation results reveal that the PV/WT/battery system is the most cost-effective one and adaptive inertia weight-based PSO algorithm yields more promising results than the other PSO variants.