Permafrost livelihoods: A transdisciplinary review and analysis of thermokarst-based systems of indigenous land use

Abstract

In a context of scientific and public debates on permafrost degradation under global climate change, this article provides an integrated review and analysis of environmental and socio-economic trends in a subarctic region. It focuses on Sakha (Yakut) animal husbandry as an example of indigenous land use. Within Sakha-Yakutia’s boreal forests, animal husbandry takes place in thermokarst depressions containing grassland areas (alaas) that formed in the early Holocene in a complex interplay of local geological conditions, climate changes, and permafrost dynamics. The current scale and speed of environmental change, along with shifting socio-economic processes, increasingly challenges Sakha’s adaptive capacity in use of alaas areas. The paper synthesizes information on the evolution of permafrost landscapes and on the local inhabitants’ and scientific knowledge. It also probes land-use prospects for the near future. The imminence of challenges for alaas ecosystems requires a holistic understanding between researchers and stakeholder communities, which in turn depends on a comprehensive assessment of the dynamic interaction of physical and social drivers of change.

Full text

Review
Permafrost
livelihoods:
A
transdisciplinary
review
and
analysis
of
thermokarst-based
systems
of
indigenous
land
use
Susan
Crate
a,1
,
Mathias
Ulrich
b,
*
,1
,
J.
Otto
Habeck
c,1
,
Aleksey
R.
Desyatkin
d,e
,
Roman
V.
Desyatkin
d
,
Aleksander
N.
Fedorov
e,f
,
Tetsuya
Hiyama
g
,
Yoshihiro
Iijima
h
,
Stanislav
Ksenofontov
i
,
Csaba
Mészáros
j
,
Hiroki
Takakura
k
a
George
Mason
University,
4400
University
Dr,
MS
5F2,
22030
Fairfax,
VA,
United
States
b
Leipzig
University,
Institute
for
Geography,
Johannisallee
19a,
04103
Leipzig,
Germany
c
Hamburg
University,
Institute
for
Social
Anthropology,
Edmund-Siemers-Allee
1,
20146
Hamburg,
Germany
d
Institute
for
Biological
Problems
of
Cryolithozone,
Russian
Academy
of
Sciences,
Lenin
ave.
41,
677980
Yakutsk,
Russia
e
Melnikov
Permafrost
Institute,
Russian
Academy
of
Sciences,
Merzlotnaya
St.
36,
677010
Yakutsk,
Russia
f
North-Eastern
Federal
University,
Belinsky
St.
58,
677000
Yakutsk,
Russia
g
Institute
for
Space-Earth
Environmental
Research
(ISEE),
Nagoya
University,
464-8601
Nagoya,
Japan
h
Graduate
School
of
Bioresources,
Mie
University,
Tsu,
Japan
i
University
of
Zurich,
Dept.
of
Geography,
Winterthurerstrasse
190,
8057
Zurich,
Switzerland
j
Hungarian
Academy
of
Science,
Research
Centre
for
the
Humanities,
Institute
of
Ethnology,
Országház
u.
30,
1014
Budapest,
Hungary
k
Center
for
Northeast
Asian
Studies,
Tohoku
University,
Kawauchi
41,
980-8576
Sendai,
Aobaku,
Japan
A
R
T
I
C
L
E
I
N
F
O
Article
history:
Received
5
October
2016
Received
in
revised
form
1
June
2017
Accepted
4
June
2017
Available
online
13
June
2017
Keywords:
Human-environment
interactions
Permafrost
landscape
dynamics
Climate
change
Sakha
Siberia
Alaas
A
B
S
T
R
A
C
T
In
a
context
of
scientific
and
public
debates
on
permafrost
degradation
under
global
climate
change,
this
article
provides
an
integrated
review
and
analysis
of
environmental
and
socio-economic
trends
in
a
subarctic
region.
It
focuses
on
Sakha
(Yakut)
animal
husbandry
as
an
example
of
indigenous
land
use.
Within
Sakha-Yakutia’s
boreal
forests,
animal
husbandry
takes
place
in
thermokarst
depressions
containing
grassland
areas
(alaas)
that
formed
in
the
early
Holocene
in
a
complex
interplay
of
local
geological
conditions,
climate
changes,
and
permafrost
dynamics.
The
current
scale
and
speed
of
environmental
change,
along
with
shifting
socio-economic
processes,
increasingly
challenges
Sakha’s
adaptive
capacity
in
use
of
alaas
areas.
The
paper
synthesizes
information
on
the
evolution
of
permafrost
landscapes
and
on
the
local
inhabitants’
and
scientific
knowledge.
It
also
probes
land-use
prospects
for
the
near
future.
The
imminence
of
challenges
for
alaas
ecosystems
requires
a
holistic
understanding
between
researchers
and
stakeholder
communities,
which
in
turn
depends
on
a
comprehensive
assessment
of
the
dynamic
interaction
of
physical
and
social
drivers
of
change.
©
2017
Published
by
Elsevier
Ltd.
Contents
1.
Introduction
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90
2.
The
alaas
landscape:
characterization
and
development
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93
2.1.
Physical
evolution
and
ecological
aspects
of
alaas
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93
2.2.
The
socio-cultural
evolution
of
the
alaas
landscape
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95
3.
Knowledge
on
environmental
change
and
landscape
dynamics
in
the
era
of
climate
change
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96
3.1.
Integrating
social
and
geoscientific
methods
and
knowledge
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96
3.2.
Geoscientific
studies
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97
*
Corresponding
author.
E-mail
addresses:
scrate1@gmu.edu
(S.
Crate),
mathias.ulrich@uni-leipzig.de
(M.
Ulrich),
fknv206@uni-hamburg.de
(J.
O.
Habeck),
desyatkinar@rambler.ru
(A.R.
Desyatkin),
rvdes@ibpc.ysn.ru
(R.V.
Desyatkin),
fedorov@mpi.ysn.ru
(A.N.
Fedorov),
hiyama@nagoya-u.jp
(T.
Hiyama),
yiijima@bio.mie-u.ac.jp
(Y.
Iijima),
stanislav.ksenofontov@geo.uzh.ch
(S.
Ksenofontov),
meszaros@etnologia.mta.hu
(C.
Mészáros),
hrk@m.tohoku.ac.jp
(H.
Takakura).
1
These
authors
contributed
equally
to
this
work.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2017.06.001
2213-3054/©
2017
Published
by
Elsevier
Ltd.
Anthropocene
18
(2017)
89–104
Contents
lists
available
at
ScienceDirect
Anthropocene
journal
homepage:
www.else
vie
r.com/locate
/ance
ne

3.2.1.
Air
and
ground
temperatures
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97
3.2.2.
Hydrological
processes
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97
3.2.3.
Land
cover
changes
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98
3.3.
Social
science
studies
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98
3.3.1.
Longitudinal
research
with
Viliui
Sakha
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98
3.3.2.
Preliminary
findings
in
the
Central
Yakutian
regions
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99
4.
Integration
and
communication
of
knowledge
as
a
basis
for
adaptation
strategies
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99
5.
Future
prospects
for
the
alaas
ecosystems
in
the
Republic
of
Sakha
(Yakutia)
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100
5.1.
Predictions
of
environmental
change
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100
5.2.
Changes
in
the
conditions
of
rural
livelihoods
dependent
upon
alaas
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101
6.
Conclusion
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101
Acknowledgments
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102
References
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102
1.
Introduction
In
this
article,
social
and
natural
scientists
review
the
evolution
and
resilience
of
alaas,
a
permafrost-based
ecosystem,
including
human
land-use
practices.
The
goal
is
to
exemplify
how
transdisciplinary
consideration
of
climatic,
biological,
and
socio-
cultural
processes
provides
a
more
complete
understanding
of
subarctic
resource
use
and
resilience
in
the
context
of
global
change.
Alaas
(in
Sakha/Yakut
language,
known
as
alas
in
Russian
and
English)
are
highly
sensitive
to
climatic
variability,
due
to
their
location
in
arctic
and
subarctic
latitudes
(Fig.
1).
They
are
a
characteristic
permafrost
landscape
feature
of
the
central
and
western
lowlands
of
the
Sakha
Republic
(synonymous
with
Sakha-
Yakutia)
(Fig.
2).
Geomorphologically,
alaas
are
thermokarst
depressions
or
drained
thaw
lake
basins
characterized
by
large
areas
of
subsided
ground
surface
resulting
from
thawing
of
ice-rich
permafrost
(Solov’ev,
1973 ).
Alaas
are
typically
covered
by
grass-
lands.
The
Sakha
word
‘alaas’
means
“meadow
in
the
forest”.
Alaas
can
vary
in
size
and
depth
but
their
specific
shape
and
their
geomorphological
genesis
is
what
distinguishes
them
from
other
grassland
areas.
For
at
least
the
last
half
millennium,
since
Sakha’s
Turkic
ancestors
transmigrated
from
southern
Siberia,
alaas
have
provided
forage
and
fodder
for
Sakha’s
horse
and
cattle
subsis-
tence,
which
maximizes
production
by
manipulating
alaas,
for
example,
by
draining
lakes
to
increase
grasslands
and
by
creating
dams
to
hold
water
during
dry
periods
and
release
it
in
times
of
water
abundance.
To
this
day,
many
Sakha
continue
to
utilize
these
unique
conditions
of
alaas
landscapes
for
subsistence
and
market
production.
Recent
decades
of
global
climate
alterations,
however,
threaten
the
relative
physical
stability
of
alaas
beyond
their
ability
to
rebound.
Additionally,
shifts
in
resource
use
and
the
socio-
economic
effects
of
post-Soviet
development
and
globalization
further
threaten
the
physical
and
socio-cultural
alaas
complex,
making
its
continued
use
increasingly
challenged
and
uncertain.
Considering
the
interactions
of
these
rapid
physical
and
sociocul-
tural
changes,
assessing
the
degree
to
which
contemporary
alaas
landscapes
have
been
altered
is
critical,
including
the
potential
effect
of
widespread
permafrost
degradation
(i.e.
thermokarst
Fig.
1.
View
of
a
typical
Central
Yakutian
alaas
landscape
during
hay
making
end
of
July.
(Photograph
by
M.
Ulrich).
90
S.
Crate
et
al.
/
Anthropocene
18
(2017)
89–104

processes)
on
the
local
economy
(Fedorov
and
Konstantinov,
2009).
Today,
Sakha
are
by
no
means
alone
in
their
plight
of
unprecedented
change
and
increased
uncertainty.
Anthropogenic
climate
change
challenges
the
adaptive
capacity
of
human-
environment
interactions
in
many
parts
of
the
world
(Crate
and
Nuttall,
2009;
Crate,
2016;
Fiske
et
al.,
2014).
In
the
Arctic
and
sub-
Arctic,
local
inhabitants
possess
detailed
knowledge
of
environ-
mental
dynamics
based
on
their
culture’s
centuries-old
experience
of
making
a
living
in
a
sensitive
habitat;
however,
many
report
that
current
processes
are
of
unprecedented
speed
and
magnitude
(Krupnik
and
Jolly,
2002;
Hovelsrud-Broda
and
Smit,
2010;
Hassol,
2004;
Ford
et
al.,
2008,
2016).
Similarly,
scientists
have
docu-
mented
invaluable
knowledge
about
how
the
physical
world
is
transforming
(IPCC
(Intergovernmental
Panel
on
Climate
Change),
2013).
Integration
of
these
two
domains
of
knowledge
provides
important
insights
into
how
change
is
occurring,
perceived,
understood
and
responded
to,
and
can
help
to
clarify
novel
adaptive
and
policy
strategies
(Crate,
2014).
In
short,
to
be
effective,
global-change
research
requires
a
comprehensive
understanding
of
human-environment
interactions,
integrating
the
natural
and
social
sciences,
to
assess
future
options
more
accurately,
to
bring
together
stakeholders’
views
on
adaptation
or
mitigation,
and
to
inform
policy
(Castree
et
al.,
2014).
Earlier
research
has
studied
alaas
but
rarely
in
a
manner
integrating
the
social
and
physical
sciences
(e.g.,
Czudek
and
Demek,
1970;
Solov’ev,
1973 ).
The
body
of
geomorphological,
geocryological,
and
climatological
studies
needs
to
be
combined
with
social-sciences
and
historical
research
on
land
use
(see
Table
1).
Gaps
also
remain
within
each
of
these
two
science
domains.
In
the
physical
domain,
geomorphologists
and
geo-
cryologists
have
a
long-standing
interest
in
how
periglacial
processes
shape
the
land
surface,
hydrological
conditions,
and
vegetation
cover
in
lowland
areas
with
Quaternary
sediments
(e.g.,
Czudek
and
Demek,
1970;
Solov’ev,
1973 ;
Ivanov,
1984;
Bosikov,
1991
for
the
region
in
question).
Permafrost
thawing,
surface
subsidence,
and
sedimentation
along
with
changes
in
hydrology
and
vegetation
create
a
particular
dynamic
of
alaas
landscape
development
(e.g.,
Bosikov,
1998;
Desyatkin,
2008;
Séjourné
et
al.,
2015;
Ulrich
et
al.,
2017a).
Thus
far,
however,
insufficient
understanding
exists
of
several
factors
in
this
process,
notably
hydrological
conditions
and
short-term
climate
changes
(Kata-
mura
et
al.,
2009b;
Kravtsova
and
Tarasenko,
2011;
Iijima
et
al.,
2013),
along
with
forest
clearings
and
other
changes
in
land
use
(Brouchkov
et
al.,
2004;
Ulrich
et
al.,
2017b).
While
knowledge
exists
of
the
consequences
of
permafrost
degradation
for
engineering
and
construction
work
in
the
Far
North
(e.g.,
Mazhitova
et
al.,
2004)
and
of
the
effects
of
climate
change
on
Northern
indigenous
communities
(e.g.,
Forbes
and
Stammler,
2009;
Pearce
et
al.,
2015),
understanding
is
lacking
in
the
social
domain
of
the
dynamics
of
permafrost
as
a
condition
of
and
basis
for
indigenous
forms
of
resource
use.
Given
that
Sakha
have
used
alaas
basins
for
at
least
half
a
millennium,
these
ecosystems
have
not
only
economic
but
also
symbolic
and
spiritual
importance
(Crate,
2006a;
Mészáros,
2012a;
Takakura,
2015).
Exactly
how
the
local
population
are
engaged
with
thermokarst
processes
to
utilize
alaas
is
not
well
understood.
Considering
the
effects
of
global
climate
change
and
also
the
fact
that
local
inhabitants
have
been
drivers
of
change
in
alaas
ecosystems,
it
is
necessary
to
ask:
How
did
alaas
ecosystems
initially
form,
what
change
have
they
undergone,
and
what
processes
are
currently
at
work?
Historically,
how
did
humans
interact
with
alaas,
how
do
humans
use
alaas
today,
will
they
be
able
to
continue
using
alaas
into
the
future
and
if
so,
how?
To
answer
these
questions,
this
paper
presents
a
transdisciplinary
review
and
analysis
of
the
alaas
ecosystem
and
the
challenges
it
Fig.
2.
Study
region
in
East
Siberia.
(A)
Map
of
the
Sakha
Republic
(white
outline).
The
administrative
unit
is
now
officially
referred
to
as
the
Republic
of
Sakha
(Yakutia)
As
a
shorthand,
“Sakha
Republic”
will
be
used
throughout
the
article.
(B)
The
Landsat
8
satellite
image
close
up
(July
2013)
is
showing
surface
conditions
of
part
of
the
Central
Yakutian
alaas
landscape
and
locations
mentioned
in
the
text.
Alaas
are
well
visible
by
the
pink-red
colors
in
the
satellite
image.
Notice
in
(B)
also
the
terrace
formation
in
the
Lena-Aldan
interfluve
region
including
the
Abalakh
(Abalaakh)
terrace
(56,000–45,000
years
ago)
and
the
Tyungyulyu
(
)
terrace
(22,000–14,000
years
ago).
Topographic
data
are
based
on
the
Global
Land
One-kilometer
Base
Elevation
(GLOBE)
digital
elevation
model
(http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/topo/globe.html).
S.
Crate
et
al.
/
Anthropocene
18
(2017)
89–104
91

faces.
It
aims
to
first
provide
a
more
holistic
understanding
developed
by
researchers
and
stakeholder
communities,
and
second,
to
synthesize
the
dynamic
interaction
of
physical
and
social
drivers
of
change.
We
begin
with
reviewing
the
knowledge
of
alaas
formation
from
the
late
Pleistocene
through
to
present.
We
then
complement
that
synthesis
with
a
historical
overview
of
ecological
processes,
tracking
how
human
populations
have
used
this
thermokarst
landscape
up
to
the
present
day.
Next,
we
outline
our
approach
to
integrating
diverse
knowledge
and
review
the
relevant
scientific
observations
and
local
knowledge
on
environmental
change
over
the
last
few
decades.
The
subsequent
reflection
on
integration
and
communication
of
knowledge
lays
the
ground
for
assessing
future
trends
of
permafrost
degradation
and
rural
livelihoods
in
this
Table
1
Timeline
combining
current
geoscientific
and
socio-economic
knowledge
on
landscape
evolution
and
climatic
changes
as
well
as
human
development
and
their
implications
for
environment,
infrastructure,
and/or
society
during
different
time
periods
since
the
late
Pleistocene
in
Central
Yakutia.
Period
Geoscientific
knowledge
Socio-economic
knowledge
Implications
for
environment,
infrastructure,
and/or
society
in
Central
Yakutia
Late
Pleistocene
(60
ky
BP)
-
Ice
complex
formation
Diring-Yuryakh
culture
at
the
Middle
Lena.
Waters
et
al.
(1997)
claim
that
“the
time
horizon
is
greater
than
260,000
years
old”.)
-
Decametre
thick
layer
of
ice-rich
permafrost
-
Findings
indicate
human
presence
despite
severe
climatic
conditions
Late
glacial
(12
ky
ago)
-
Climate
change
-
Ice
complex
degradation
-
Initial
thermokarst
processes
-
Tundra-like
vegetation,
increase
of
birch
and
other
trees
(Andreev
and
Tarasov,
2013)
-
Widespread
permafrost
degradation
-
Surface
subsidence
and
formation
of
pond
and
lakes
Early
Holocene
(10–8
ky
BP)
-
Climate
warming
-
Widespread
thermokarst
processes
-
Open
and
sparse
larch
forest
cover
(Katamura
et
al.,
2009a)
-
Existence
of
numerous
thermokarst
lakes
-
Evolution
of
large
thermokarst
basins
(alaas)
Holocene
climate
optimum
(7–
4
ky
ago)
-
Globally
increasing
temperatures
-
Widespread
thermokarst
processes
Archaeological
findings
indicate
continual
human
presence
in
Central
Yakutia
since
at
least
5000
BP
(Argunov
and
Pestereva,
2014)
-
Boreal
forest
dominated
by
pine
trees
(Katamura
et
al.,
2009a)
-
Formation
of
thermokarst
lakes
and
thermokarst
basins
(alaas)
-
Small
(negligible)
impact
of
hunters
and
gatherers
on
the
ecosystems
of
North
East
Asia
11th–13th
century
-
Medieval
Warm
period
with
increasing
June
temperatures
Tungus-speaking
bands
of
hunters
in
Central
Yakutia
Small
(negligible)
impact
of
hunters
and
gatherers
on
the
ecosystems
of
North
East
Asia
13th–19th
century
-
Decrease
of
air
temperature
during
Little
Ice
Age
-
Migrations
of
Sakha
groups
from
the
Lake
Baikal
area
to
Yakutia
-
Continuation
of
cattle-breeding
practices
under
new
env.
preconditions
-
Importance
of
cosmology
in
adaptive
practices
-
Sacredness
of
hayland
-
Increased
usage
of
natural
pasture
and
forage
resources
of
the
long
river
terraces
and
numerous
alaas
areas
-
Roads
through
the
forests
adjacent
to
alaas
and
not
upon
them
17th–19th
century
-
Russia’s
land-tenure
taxation
system
-
Increased
importance
of
cattle
over
horses,
changing
pasture
to
hayfields
-
Increasing
importance
of
alaas
management
methods

draining,
ground
leveling,
and
deforestation
Soviet
period
(1920s–1991)
-
Cyclical
character
of
high
and
low
lake-
water
levels
results
in
decrease
and
increase
in
grassland
area
-
Agricultural
collectivization
-
Gradual
establishment
of
the
state
farm
system
-
Marked
intensification
of
hay-making
-
Introduction
of
plough
technology
for
more
extensive
crop
cultivation
-
Spread
of
heavy
agricultural
machinery
-
Extensive
agricultural
activity
around
small
settlements
throughout
Central
Yakutia
-
After
1950,
amalgamation
of
small
enterprises
and
relocation
into
larger,
more
compact
settlements
-
Gradual
expansion
of
Soviet-style
industrialised
agricultural
production
-
Large-scale
crop
production
in
certain
areas
of
Central
Yakutia
-
Irrigation
in
some
areas
-
Alaas
drainage
on
grand
scale
-
Untilled
meadows
turned
into
plough
lands
-
Soil
disturbance
and
compaction
Post
Soviet
period
(from
1991
till
today)
-
Steadily
increase
of
air
and
soil
temperatures
since
1930
-
Periods
of
increasing
summer
precipitation
-
Increasing
permafrost
degradation
and
deepening
of
the
active
layer
-
Expansion
of
thermokarst
lakes
and
areal
changes
in
hydrological
conditions
-
Disbanding
of
state
farms
and
developing
of
smaller-
scale
food
production
-
Reversion
of
grain
production
to
haylands
-
Intensification
of
land
use
in
easy-to-access
areas,
withdrawal
from
the
land
in
remote
areas
-
Manipulation
of
water
balance
within
alaas
by
canals
and
dams
-
Surface
subsidence,
increase
of
permafrost
degradation,
and
formation
of
pond
and
lakes
in
particular
in
deforested
areas
-
Destruction
of
buildings
and
infrastructure
-
Boreal
forest
withering
and
dying
Foreseeable
future
-
Increasing
air
temperature
and
permafrost
decrease
by
the
end
of
21st
century
-
Transformation
of
the
water
balance
-
Intensity
of
land
use
will
depend
on
state
programs
and
subsidies
-
Cattle
and
horse
breeding
pursued
by
a
small
number
of
experts-
continued
youth
out-migration
to
larger
cities
-
Increasing
land
use
of
deforested
areas
on
ice-
complex
deposits
(cropland,
buildings)
-
Multiple
effects
on
biodiversity,
ecosystem
productivity
and
human
use
of
large
areas
-
Increasing
active
layer,
expanding
taliks
and
thermokarst
processes
-
Further
permafrost
degradation
-
Local
land-use
intensity
dependent
on
the
availability
of
transport
and
infrastructure
-
Depopulation
of
remoter
rural
settlements
92
S.
Crate
et
al.
/
Anthropocene
18
(2017)
89–104

region.
In
conclusion,
we
provide
recommendations
for
future
research.
2.
The
alaas
landscape:
characterization
and
development
2.1.
Physical
evolution
and
ecological
aspects
of
alaas
Contemporary
alaas
(Fig.
1)
have
a
long
geomorphological
history,
spanning
the
last
60,000
years.
The
central
and
western
lowlands
of
the
Sakha
Republic
are
critical
permafrost
regions
globally
because
of
the
depth
of
the
permafrost
layer,
extending
more
than
1000
m
in
some
locations
and
its
comparable
high
ice-
content
in
large
areas
(Czudek
and
Demek,
1973).
During
the
late
Pleistocene
(<126,000
years
ago),
glaciation
occurred
repeatedly,
with
ice
shields
covering
large
parts
of
Northern
and
Central
Eurasia.
The
central
and
western
regions
of
the
Sakha
Republic
and
large
parts
of
the
East-Siberian
lowlands,
however,
did
not
undergo
glaciation.
Consequently,
the
soil
surface
was
exposed
to
very
low
air
temperatures
over
a
long
period,
resulting
in
the
freezing
of
the
ground
and
permafrost
build-up
extending
into
depths
of
several
hundred
meters
(Hubberten
et
al.,
2004).
For
the
Lena-Aldan
area
(Fig.
2B),
one
explanatory
theory
suggests
that
in
the
late
Pleistocene,
the
Lena
river
formed
a
large
lake
dammed
by
Verkhoiansk
mountain
glaciers
and
expanses
of
adjacent
wetlands
came
into
existence
(e.g.,
Ivanov
et
al.,
2015).
The
resulting
wet
soils
experienced
frost
cracking,
the
formation
of
a
polygonal
relief
and
the
active
development
of
ice
wedges.
Repeated
changes
in
climatic
conditions,
water
levels,
erosion
and
sedimentation
led
to
the
formation
of
terraces
(Katasonov
et
al.,
1979 )
(see
Fig.
2B).
Annual
cycles
of
thaw
and
freeze
together
with
a
syngenetic
accumulation
of
polygenetic
sediments
led
to
the
gradual
development
of
substantial
ice
wedges
(see
Fig.
3).
These
ice-complex
or
Yedoma
deposits
cover
large
parts
of
central
and
western
Sakha
and
are
characterized
by
more
than
60%
ground-ice
content
by
volume,
(Solov’ev,
1959;
Katasonov
et
al.,
1979 ),
in
which
the
ice-wedge
volume
alone
is
estimated
to
be
about
50%
of
the
total
permafrost
volume
(Ivanov,
1984).
This
characteristic
is
crucial
for
the
development
of
large
alaas,
since
surface
subsidence
is
related
to
ice-volume
loss
(e.g.,
Ulrich
et
al.,
2014).
Fluctuations
in
climate
conditions
during
the
early-
and
mid-Holocene
led
to
extensive
thermokarst
formation
caused
by
the
degradation
(i.e.
thawing)
of
the
ice-rich
permafrost
deposits
and
subsequent
surface
subsidence
(Bosikov,1991;
Katamura
et
al.,
2006;
Kaplina,
2009;
Grosse
et
al.,
2013).
Table
1
summarizes
alaas
landscape
development.
Today,
approximately
16,000
alaas
are
found
in
the
lowlands
of
central
part
of
the
Sakha
Republic
(Central
Yakutia),
covering
4400
km
2
or
17%
of
the
total
Central
Yakutian
lowland
area
(Bosikov,
1991 ).
Within
these
areas,
the
spatial
distribution
and
density
of
alaas
is
varied.
For
example,
in
the
Lena-Aldan-interfluve
region,
alaas
cover
up
to
30%
of
the
territory’s
surface
(Bosikov,
1991)
(see
Fig.
2B).
The
thermokarst
process
is
initiated
by
the
gradual
deepening
of
the
seasonal
thaw
layer
(i.e.
active
layer)
because
of
soil
warming
and
subsequent
thawing
of
the
underlying
ice
complex,
initiated
by
warmer
climatic
periods.
This
process
can
also
begin
due
to
temporally
and
spatially
limited
non-climatic
factors,
such
as
destruction
of
vegetative
cover,
local
erosion,
forest
fire,
and
land
use
change.
The
process
occurs
over
decades,
centuries
or
several
thousand
years
and
has
four
main
stages
(Fig.
4),
each
producing
a
different
thermokarst
landform
(in
Sakha
byllaar,
,
tyympy)
and
finally,
the
thermokarst
basin
named
alaas
(Solov’ev,1973;
Bosikov,1991).
Timing
is
highly
variable,
with
the
first
two
stages
of
initiation
and
enlargement
occuring
over
several
decades
or
up
to
a
few
hundred
years
(Solov’ev,
1973 ;
Fedorov
et
al.,
2014).
Today,
we
can
witness
all
stages
of
thermokarst
evolution
in
the
central
and
western
lowlands
of
the
Sakha
Republic.
Thermokarst
dynamics,
however,
are
still
not
fully
understood.
One
unknown
aspect
is
whether
alaas
develop-
ment
is
unidirectional
or
cyclical
(e.g.,
Pestryakova
et
al.,
2012).
The
model
of
unidirectional
thermokarst
evolution
includes
initiation,
expansion,
drainage,
and
cessation
(Morgenstern
et
al.,
2013;
Ulrich
et
al.,
2017a).
Alaas
form
within
a
taiga
(boreal)
forest
type
dominated
by
Dahurian
larch
(Larix
dahurica),
Siberian
spruce
(Picea
obovata)
and
Siberian
pine
(Pinus
sibirica).
The
alaas
itself
is
bare
of
forest
and
supports
three
vegetation
zones:
wetland,
moist
grassland,
and
dry
grassland,
each
extending
concentrically
around
the
alaas
lake
(Desyatkin,
2008).
The
wetland
area
is
dominated
by
peaty-
eutrophic
permafrost
soils.
These
soils
produce
vegetation
that
is
dominated
by
sedges
and
sweet
grasses,
and
used
by
Sakha
only
as
forage
reserve,
since
harvesting
on
the
boggy
terrain
is
difficult.
Moderately
moist
grasslands
with
relatively
high
soil
salinity
Fig.
3.
Ice-complex
exposures
in
Central
Yakutia.
(A)
Large
ice
wedges
on
the
Tyungyulyu
(Tȯn͡
gu̇lu̇)
terrace,
reaching
40
m
depth
and
8
m
width.
(B)
Large
ice
wedges
on
the
Abalakh
(Abalaakh)
terrace,
reaching
60
m
depth
and
10
m
width.
(Photographs
by
R.V.
Desyatkin
and
M.
Ulrich).
S.
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et
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/
Anthropocene
18
(2017)
89–104
93

dominate
the
largest
alaas
areas.
These
grasslands
are
home
to
the
salt
resistant
alkali
or
salt
grass
(Puccinellia
tenuiflora).
These
areas
have
high
biomass
productivity
and
are
extensively
used
for
hay-
making
(see
Fig.
1).
The
most
elevated
areas,
such
as
the
alaas
slopes
are
dominated
by
dry
grassland
of
low
productivity
that
holds
little
practical
value
for
cattle
breeding
(Desyatkin,
2008).
These
three
areas
of
biomass
production
are
subject
to
fluctuations
of
alaas-lake
levels,
which
are
cyclical
as
proven
by
both
scientific
research
and
Sakha
local
knowledge.
Bosikov
(1998)
identified
a
cyclical
character
of
high
and
low
lake-water
levels
in
Central
Sakha-Yakutia,
in
the
period
from
1891
to
1995.
Inhabitants
distinguish
dry
and
wet
periods
that
influence
alaas-lake
level
oscillations
and
hence
grassland
productivity
(Crate,
2011).
Wet
years
cause
alaas
lakes
to
expand
and
reduce
the
grassland
area.
Dry
years
lead
to
lake
shrinking
and
consequently
to
an
increase
of
grassland
area
(i.e.
hayland).
The
productivity
of
grasslands
dramatically
decreases
during
dry
years,
however,
due
to
low
soil
moisture
in
the
alaas
periphery.
Dry
years
are,
in
fact,
most
harmful
Fig.
4.
Thermokarst
stages
in
ice-rich
permafrost
in
the
boreal
zone
of
Central
Yakutia.
The
graphic
above
was
modified
after
Bosikov
(1991)
and
Desyatkin
et
al.
(2009).
Note,
the
term
alas
is
shown
in
its
English
spelling.
Sakha
names
given
in
the
graphic
divert
from
Sakha
orthography.
For
each
stage
corresponding
pictures
are
shown
below
(Photographs
by
R.V.
Desyatkin).
94
S.
Crate
et
al.
/
Anthropocene
18
(2017)
89–104

for
indigenous
horse
and
cattle
breeding.
Sakha
have,
to
date,
been
successful
using
the
alaas
due
to
their
ability
to
manipulate
these
water
extremes,
a
topic
addressed
in
the
next
section.
2.2.
The
socio-cultural
evolution
of
the
alaas
landscape
The
horse
and
cattle
breeding
Sakha
have
been
and
remain
important
actors
in
alaas
landscape
change.
Table
1
indicates
hunting
and
foraging
as
earlier,
though
still
existing,
forms
of
resource
use
in
this
region
(Argunov
and
Pestereva,
2014;
Crate,
2003a;
Waters
et
al.,
1997),
whereas
animal
husbandry
and
the
pertinent
intensification
of
land
use
emerged
more
recently.
Between
the
12th
and
15th
centuries,
Sakha’s
Turkic
ancestors
migrated
north
in
several
waves
from
the
Lake
Baikal
region
of
southern
Siberia
to
the
alaas
areas
of
the
middle
Lena
and
Viliui
Rivers
(e.g.,
Okladnikov,
1970;
Ksenofontov,
1992).
Sakha
main-
tained
a
steppe
type
of
pastoralist
society.
Based
on
a
sociocultural
system
of
military
aristocracy,
this
society
adapted
to
the
northern
climate
by
foddering
their
herds
during
winter
using
the
natural
pasture
and
forage
resources
of
the
long
river
terraces
and
numerous
alaas
areas
(Takakura,
2015).
Sakha’s
subsistence
activities
flourished
due
to
their
manipulation
of
the
alaas
landscape.
They
controlled
water
to
maximize
hay
production
by
draining
lakes
and/or
water-logged
areas,
creating
khoruu
(canals)
(Fig.
5)
and
holding
water
in
times
of
drought
via
the
use
of
various
styles
of
dams,
a
practice
carried
over
from
their
ancestral
southern
habitat
(Ermolaev,
1991).
Sakha
cosmology
played
an
important
role
in
adaptive
practices.
According
to
Sakha’s
ancestral
belief
system
in
which
all
of
nature
is
sentient
or
spirit-filled,
alaas
are
living
beings
and
considered
members
of
the
local
community,
with
whom
human
beings
regularly
communicate
and
give
sacrificial
foodstuffs,
rituals,
blessings,
and
dreamings
(Mészáros,
2012b;
Takakura,
2015).
One
example
that
demonstrates
this
belief
is
the
shaman’s
ritual
performed
before
draining
an
alaas
lake
to
create
more
hayland.
To
these
ends,
a
shaman
is
called
to
appease
a
potentially
angry
spirit
of
the
lake
who
may
drown
or
harm
those
involved
in
the
draining
process
(Nikolaev,
196 8).
Rituals
of
this
type
also
occur
at
present
(Aytal
Yakovlev,
personal
communication,
October
2015).
Also
in
line
with
Sakha
cosmology,
grasslands
are
sacred
and
not
to
be
unnecessarily
disturbed,
which
explains
why
Sakha
usually
traveled
in
the
forests
adjacent
to
alaas
and
not
upon
them.
Historically,
several
pivotal
events
affected
Sakha’s
initial
adaptation
to
the
Far
North
and
establishment
of
an
alaas
land
tenure
strategy.
With
the
17th
century
advent
of
Russia’s
land-
tenure
taxation
system
and
increased
importance
of
cattle
over
horses,
Sakha
began
changing
pasture
to
hayfields
to
produce
fodder
resources
for
cows
(e.g.,
Seroshevskii,
1993;
Takakura,
2015),
a
trend
that
continued
into
the
19th
century.
During
this
period,
various
methods
of
alaas
management
–
draining,
ground
leveling,
and
deforestation
–
became
widespread
in
the
central
and
western
lowlands
of
the
Sakha
Republic
(Petrov,
2002).
By
the
early
20th
century
half
of
Sakha
agricultural
territories
were
hayfields
(Matveev,
1989).
A
second
major
land
tenure
change
came
during
the
Soviet
period
(Table
1).
Before
collectivization,
extended
clan
households
were
situated
on
alaas
and
householders
utilized
many
small
and
disperse
hayfields
(Gabyshev,
1929).
Loosely
cooperating
neigh-
bors,
many
of
whom
were
kin,
formed
residential
groups
of
5
to
15
households
called
meaning
both
a
cohesive
group
of
people
and
a
round-shaped
meadow
(Rastsvetaev,
1932;
Mészáros,
2012a).
Households
moved
semi-annually
between
a
winter
and
summer
camp,
maintaining
a
distance
between
them
approxi-
mating
10
km.
Beginning
in
the
late
1920s
and
lasting
several
decades,
the
Soviet
government
invited
and
later
forced
Sakha
to
give
over
their
herds
and
land
holdings
to
collective
farms.
Households
were
moved
into
increasingly
compact
village
settlements.
Alaas
continued
to
be
used
but
now
for
expanding
Soviet-style
agricultural
production.
After
World
War
II,
the
Soviet
government
began
the
gradual
establishment
of
the
state
farm
system,
with
collective
farms
amalgamated
into
large
agricultural
enterprises
by
the
late
1950s
and
early
1960s
(Crate,
2006a;
Mészáros,
2012b;
Takakura,
2015).
With
this
final
step
of
centralization,
the
majority
of
alaas
were
used
for
large-scale
crop
production,
pasture
or
fodder
and
as
summer
camps
for
farm
brigades.
Among
the
many
changes
of
the
time,
the
change
from
aboriginal
Sakha
cattle
to
European
breeds
was
particularly
relevant,
first
to
Kholmogory
cattle
in
the
in
the
1950s
and
then
to
Simmental
cattle
from
the
1960s
onwards,
for
their
higher
milk
production
(cf.
Stammler-Gossmann,
2010a).
Unlike
native
cattle,
however,
Simmental
required
protection
from
the
extreme
northern
climate
for
up
to
9
months
of
the
year,
requiring
substantial
fodder.
To
meet
these
needs,
state
farms
intensified
hay-making
and
conducted
alaas
drainage
on
a
grand
scale.
The
total
territory
of
drained
fields
grew
between
1975
and
1985
by
nearly
50%
(Matveev,
1989;
Gavril’ev,
1991),
with
some
state
farms
(especially
in
Viliui
district)
having
more
than
25%
of
their
agricultural
areas
drained
(Fig.
5).
Another
important
change
to
alaas
was
the
introduction
of
plough
technology.
In
196 6,
the
Communist
Party
of
the
Yakutian
ASSR
(present-day
Sakha
Yakutia)
dictated
that
grain
production
Fig.
5.
Artificial
canals
(khoruu)
for
draining
lakes
and/or
water-logged
areas.
(A)
Pre-Soviet
khoruu
(Photograph
by
S.
Crate)
and
(B)
Soviet
State
Farm
khoruu
illustrating
the
change
in
scale
of
drained
areas
before
and
during
Soviet
period
(Photograph
by
Akimov,
2006).
S.
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et
al.
/
Anthropocene
18
(2017)
89–104
95

expand
into
alaas
fields
in
central,
southern
and
western
state
farms
(Vinokurova,
1999).
Previously
untilled
meadows
were
turned
into
plough
lands,
resulting
in
approximately
9%
of
the
Republic’s
agricultural
territories
intensively
drained
and
tilled
as
crop
fields
(Matveev,
1989).
Different
and
more
efficient
methods
of
irrigation
were
also
introduced
at
that
time
and
total
irrigated
land
nearly
doubled
between
1970
and
1985
(Matveev,
1989).
Sprinkler
irrigation
was
used
in
crop
fields,
whereas
flood
irrigation
typically
upgraded
pastures.
The
spread
of
tractors
and
other
agricultural
machinery
from
the
mid-1950s
onwards
made
it
gradually
easier
to
drain
meadows
and
wetlands
and
to
introduce
irrigation
systems
(Gavril’ev,
1991).
However,
the
heavy
machinery
compacted
the
soil
structure
of
the
delicate
sub-arctic
soils.
The
post-Soviet
period,
beginning
in
the
early
1990s,
brought
more
changes
in
alaas
use.
The
state
farms
were
disbanded
and
because
large-scale
cattle
breeding
was
no
longer
profitable
(Darbasov
et
al.,
2000),
the
number
of
cattle
decreased
by
40%
from
396,500
in
1990
to
233,300
in
2012,
plummeting
rapidly
in
the
1990s
and
less
so
in
the
2000s
(Vinokurova
and
Prokhorova,
2013).
Similarly
the
state-farm
summer
camps
and
their
facilities
were
abandoned
(Ivanov
et
al.,
2000).
Despite
the
precipitous
drop
in
cattle
overall,
most
households
adapted
to
the
almost
overnight
loss
of
state-farm
salaries
and
food
stuffs
by
developing
small-scale
food
production;
holding
cows
on
a
household
level
and
interdepending
with
kin
households
to
realize
hay
needs
(Crate,
2006a).
Official
land
tenure
regimes
also
changed.
Hayfields
went
from
being
state-owned
to
usufruct
on
local
household
levels
(Crate,
2003b).
Many
hayfields
that
had
been
transformed
into
grain
production
during
the
socialist
period
were
reverted
back
to
haylands.
Since
tractor
and
other
intensive
agricultural
practices
compacted
and
disrupted
the
delicate
northern
soil
structure,
however,
hay
fields
were
less
productive
than
in
pre-Soviet
times.
The
ethnic
revival
of
the
post-Soviet
period
also
brought
a
renewal
of
inhabitants’
understanding
and
reverence
for
the
sacred
aspects
of
alaas.
When
contemporary
elders
mapped
their
birth
land
alaas
in
an
oral
history
project,
they
spoke
of
how,
to
this
day,
they
and
their
extended
families
return
to
those
homesteads
to
feed
their
ancestral
spirits
(Crate,
2006b).
To
date,
many
Sakha
continue
to
perceive
alaas
landscapes
as
sentient
beings.
Symbolically,
it
is
the
relationship
among
people,
land,
and
spirits
that
enables
exclusive
and
continuous
ownership
by
particular
families
(Takakura,
2010,
2015).
Although
people
identify
ancestral
lands
(sir-uot)
as
their
own,
it
does
not
mean
that
a
descendant
has
free
license
to
these
areas
until
the
proper
rites
are
performed.
Alaas
possess
an
immanent
power
of
a
highly
complex
character.
Healers
and
shamans
often
communicate
with
them,
and
may
gain
their
healing
skills
from
alaas’
benevolent
power.
This
power
must
be
respected,
and
therefore
a
number
of
taboos
protect
alaas.
Contemporary
Sakha
healers
describe
how
alaas
are
not
only
exposed
to
climatic
change
and
permafrost
soil
degradation,
but
they
also
respond
to
it.
Furthermore,
alaas
and
lakes,
also
considered
sentient
beings,
are
said
to
communicate
with
each
other
by
a
complex
“vascular”
system,
and
may
react
in
concert
to
human
harms
in
an
unfriendly
or
even
hostile
way
(Protapopova,
2002,
p.
60;
Sleptsov-Sylyk,
2013).
3.
Knowledge
on
environmental
change
and
landscape
dynamics
in
the
era
of
climate
change
3.1.
Integrating
social
and
geoscientific
methods
and
knowledge
In
addition
to
the
historical
changes
that
have
affected
the
overall
ecosystem
state
of
alaas
and
the
pertinent
land
use
and
livelihood,
synthesizing
environmental
changes
as
observed
over
the
last
20–30
years
by
natural
scientists,
on
the
one
hand,
and
social
scientists
collaborating
with
local
Sakha
inhabitants,
on
the
other,
is
important.
Because
the
two
domains
of
knowledge
–
one
based
on
predominantly
qualitative
findings
and
the
other
mainly
quantitative
–
are
validated
differently,
we
first
present
them
separately
and
then
integrate
them
in
discussion.
We
review,
compile,
and
discuss
relevant
published
research
with
focus
on
human-environment
interaction
in
permafrost
landscape
dynam-
ics
and
also
alaas
and
thermokarst
processes.
This
article
demonstrates
how
diverse
disciplinary
findings
can
be
exchanged
and
integrated
to
produce
a
more
holistic
understanding,
in
the
context
of
Sakha-Yakutia.
Without
outlining
the
methodological
details
of
the
different
disciplines
we
draw
upon,
we
present
an
approach
for
integrating
different
domains
of
knowledge,
along
with
the
difficulties.
In
terms
of
the
latter,
divergent
timescales
are
particularly
challenging
(Table
1).
The
time
span
of
observations
of
social
and
environmental
scientists
varies,
for
the
former
spanning
anywhere
from
ten
years
(data
on
flooding,
rural
residents’
perceptions
of
change)
to
over
several
decades
and
for
the
latter
from
150
years
(climate
records,
lake-
level
changes)
to
up
to
several
thousands
of
years,
as
with
paleo-
environmental
and
geomorphological
records
of
alaas
evolution.
Additionally,
the
contrast
between
the
two
domains’
methods
and
rigor,
with
scientific
observation
employing
procedures
and
protocols
to
produce
scientifically
valid
quantitative
data,
and
local
knowledge,
which
can
be
elicited
through
social
scientific
inquiry
using
largely
qualitative
methods
whose
rigor
depends
on
saturation
and
the
development
of
patterns.
Methods
and
problems
of
integrating
scientific
and
local
environmental
knowledge
have
been
debated
over
the
last
twenty
years
(Nadasdy,
1999;
Karjalainen
and
Habeck,
2004;
Ford
et
al.,
2016).
The
primary
vehicle
for
integrating
scientific
knowledge
and
research
results
from
many
disciplines
were
several
forums
that
Fig.
6.
Air
and
soil
temperature
variability
for
the
Yakutsk
region
(1930–2014).
Data
of
mean
annual
air
temperatures
(MAAT)
were
obtained
from
the
Yakutsk
weather
stations
(NOAA
National
Climatic
Data
Center;
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/).
The
mean
annual
ground
temperatures
(MAGT)
at
3.2
m
depth
were
averaged
from
four
meteorological
stations
(Yakutsk,
Pokrovsk,
Churapcha,
Okhotsk-Perevoz)
in
the
region.
Data
means
are
illustrated
by
the
solid
lines
and
data
trends
by
the
dashed
line.
96
S.
Crate
et
al.
/
Anthropocene
18
(2017)
89–104

included
community
knowledge
exchanges,
academic
workshops,
and
field
visits
engaging
multiple
stakeholders.
In
2010,
two
of
the
authors
(S.
Crate
and
A.
Fedorov)
facilitated
knowledge
exchanges,
aimed
to
forefront
inhabitants’
local
knowledge
and
to
share
regional
scientific
findings
using
familiar
images
and
explanations,
in
eight
communities
of
the
Viliui
region
(Crate
and
Fedorov,
2013,
see
Section
3.3.1).
A
majority
of
the
authors
collaborated
in
a
scientific
workshop
during
the
2014
Arctic
Science
Summit
Week
in
Helsinki
(see
acknowledgements)
in
order
to
contextualize
local
knowledge
about
mid-term
and
short-term
changes
in
terrestrial
and
cryospheric
conditions
using
geological,
geomorphological,
geocryological,
historical,
and
archaeological
data
on
the
physical
and
social
evolution
of
alaas
systems.
In
2015,
a
workshop
in
Yakutsk
(see
acknowledgements)
brought
together
many
of
the
authors
with
Sakha
historians,
sociologists,
anthropologists,
biologists,
geocryologists
and
other
scholars
from
outside
Russia.
Interdisciplinary
break-out
groups
assessed
and
summarized
the
scope
and
limits
of
current
knowledge
about
(i)
land-use
history;
(ii)
socio-economic
development
and
prospects;
and
(iii)
perma-
frost
formation
and
degradation,
all
with
regional
focus
on
the
Lena-Aldan
interfluve.
During
the
workshop,
an
interdisciplinary
team
spent
two
days
conducting
field
visits
to
Yukechi
(Ûk_
echi)
and
Tyungyulyu
thermokarst/alaas
areas,
allowing
all
partic-
ipants
to
observe
and
discuss
landscape
development
and
use
with
local
private
farmers
and
collective
farm
managers.
Below,
we
draw
from
the
findings
of
these
three
main
forums.
3.2.
Geoscientific
studies
3.2.1.
Air
and
ground
temperatures
Proxy
data,
specifically
contemporary
dendro-climatic
recon-
struction
of
11th-13th
century
June
temperatures
in
eastern
Siberia
show
a
warming
of
1.5

C
(Sidorova
and
Naurzbaev,
2005).
This
warming
reflects
the
global
trend
of
the
Medieval
Warm
period,
which
was
then
followed
by
a
marked
decrease
of
air
temperature
through
the
19th
century,
corresponding
to
global
models
of
the
Little
Ice
Age.
Since
that
time
to
today,
average
air
temperatures
have
steadily
increased
(e.g.,
Jones
et
al.,
2001).
During
the
period
of
reliable
direct
records
(1930
to
present)
the
mean
annual
air
temperature
measured
at
the
Yakutsk
meteoro-
logical
station
increased
by
0.03

C
per
year
(Fig.
6).
Concomi-
tantly,
the
permafrost
temperatures
in
the
central
and
western
lowlands
of
the
Sakha
Republic
have
increased
by
0.02

C
per
year
(in
320
cm
depth)
(see
also
Romanovsky
et
al.,
2007).
The
activation
of
thermokarst
is
due
to
the
steady
increase
of
mean
annual
air
and
ground
temperatures.
Critical
to
our
synthesis
are
two
sharp
shifts
of
ground
temperature,
one
occurring
between
1950
and
1970
and
another,
more
pronounced,
in
the
early
1980s
(Fedorov
et
al.,
2014;
Ulrich
et
al.,
2017b).
Both
shifts
contributed
to
an
increase
in
the
seasonal
thawing
depth
(i.e.,
the
active
layer
is
usually
up
to
200
cm
deep
in
forest-free
areas)
and
subsequent
melting
of
the
upper
parts
of
ice
wedges
on
landscapes
with
ice-rich
deposits.
The
thawing
is
the
very
characteristic
of
the
region’s
permafrost,
which
makes
the
alaas
ecosystems
particularly
sensitive
and
reactive
to
relatively
small
amounts
of
warming.
3.2.2.
Hydrological
processes
Field
studies
clearly
indicate
that
thermokarst
lakes
are
expanding
and
the
permafrost
underneath
is
thawing,
a
process
due
to
both
the
warming
detailed
above
but
also
to
shifting
hydrological
processes.
The
exact
extent
of
change
is
highly
dependent
on
the
specific
context
of
each
alaas’s
physical
characteristics.
We
illustrate
with
a
few
examples.
Data
from
Yukechi
–
a
field
site
of
Central
Sakha-Yakutia
located
c.
55
km
ENE
of
Yakutsk,
on
the
Abalakh
(Abalaakh)
terrace
(see
Fig.
2)
–
illustrates
the
scope
and
speed
of
change
(Fedorov
et
al.,
2014;
Ulrich
et
al.,
2017b).
From
1980
to
2012,
the
area
of
thermokarst
lakes
on
the
Yukechi
site
increased
four
times
with
the
bottom
of
these
lakes
deepening
2–2.5
m
from
1992
to
present
and
terrains
with
ice-wedge
polygons
turned
into
ponds
(Fig.
7).
Additionally,
from
2005
to
2007,
sudden
warming
on
land-
scapes
with
above-average
amounts
of
snow
cover
in
combination
with
increased
summer
precipitation,
led
to
both
a
significant
expansion
of
thermokarst
lakes
and
to
the
extensive
development
of
primary
thermokarst
landforms
–
bad’arakh
or
thermokarst
mounds
in
treeless
areas
(the
latter
represented
by
Stage
I
in
Fig.
4).
Such
data
clarify
the
complexity
of
the
hydrological
processes
involved,
with
increased
lake
area
and
depth
a
result
of
both
permafrost
ice
meltwater
and
increased
above-ground
precipita-
tion.
Beside
climatic
influences,
also
small-scale,
local
interactions
of
thermal
and
hydrological
changes
and
specific
permafrost
conditions
can
cause
thermokarst-lake-level
changes
(Smith
et
al.,
2005).
One
study
estimated
the
water
balance
from
1993
to
2008
for
a
thermokarst
lake
at
the
Yukechi
study
site
and
showed
how
the
lake
area
increased
rapidly
by
a
factor
of
16
and
the
lake
volume
by
114 ,
with
melting
ground
ice
making
up
one
third
of
the
total
water
increase
(Fedorov
et
al.,
2014).
Fig.
7.
Landscape
change
at
Yukechi
(Ûk_
echi)
study
site
during
recent
years.
Several
thermokarst
lakes
around
the
Yukechi
(Ûk_
echi)
alaas
have
developed
rapidly
in
areas
ploughed
until
the
1950s.
The
blue
ellipse
in
the
upper
satellite
image
time
series
marks
the
view
of
the
photographs
below.
(Photographs,
satellite
and
airborne
imagery
provided
by
A.N.
Fedorov
and
M.
Ulrich).
S.
Crate
et
al.
/
Anthropocene
18
(2017)
89–104
97

Studies
by
Iijima
et
al.
(2010)
and
Ulrich
et
al.
(2017b)
demonstrated
how
hydrological
processes
of
larger
lakes
within
alaas
basins
are
linked
to
climatic
conditions.
Data
from
the
Tyungyulyu
field
site
also
shows
that
water-level
changes
are
highly
correlated
with
air
temperature
(Fig.
8).
Before
the
1980s,
the
Tyungyulyu
water
level
was
higher
than
today,
explained
by
the
lower
average
summer
temperatures
and
resulting
lower
evaporation.
In
the
context
of
warmer
drier
summers
since
that
time,
the
lake’s
water
level
continues
to
decrease.
However,
the
years
from
2005
to
2007,
consecutive
years
of
abnormally
high
precipitation,
resulted
in
an
abrupt
increase
in
the
water
level
(Iijima
et
al.,
2010).
Another
important
aspect
of
alaas
ecosystem
hydrology
is
their
annual
flood
regime,
which
has
seen
significant
changes
in
recent
years.
Typically
only
occurring
during
the
spring
season
with
the
melt
of
snow
and
ice,
recent
years
show
a
new
trend
of
summer
floods.
Cyclones
have
appeared
frequently
in
summer
in
the
region,
bringing
more
precipitation
to
eastern
Siberia
in
particular.
Such
changes
in
the
atmospheric
water
cycle
have
caused
river
flooding
in
summer,
not
only
at
Lena
River
(Takakura,
2016),
affecting
Yakutsk,
but
also
at
numerous
tributaries.
Alaas
basins
have
also
become
water-logged
(Hiyama
et
al.,
2013).
Generally,
spring
floods
bring
nutrient-rich
water
to
the
river
islands
on
which
the
farmers
cultivate
pastures
for
cattle
and
horses,
thus
they
are
considered
beneficial
(unless
they
destroy
buildings
or
infrastruc-
ture).
In
the
case
of
summer
floods
inundating
river
islands,
however,
hay
production
becomes
impossible.
3.2.3.
Land
cover
changes
The
changes
in
temperature
and
hydrology
are
evidenced
by
direct
and
cascading
ecosystem
change.
With
the
large
increase
in
precipitation
in
the
research
region
since
2004,
in
combination
with
near-surface
permafrost
thawing,
soil
moisture
has
increased
substantially
(Iijima
et
al.,
2010;
Hiyama
et
al.,
2013).
These
perennially
waterlogged
conditions
increase
soil
subsidence
and
affect
the
boreal
forest
habitat,
specifically
by
changing
soil
conditions
that
no
longer
support
the
historical
floral
species.
Increasingly,
boreal
forest
trees
are
withering
and
dying
through-
out
the
region.
According
to
multi-year
sap
flow
measurements
from
2006
to
2009,
transpiration
from
larch
trees
was
significantly
reduced
in
conjunction
with
the
deepening
and
moistening
of
the
active
layer
(Iijima
et
al.,
2014).
At
a
different
research
site,
the
number
of
living
larch
decreased
by
15%
from
1998
to
2011
due
to
unusual
waterlogged
conditions
and
the
composition
of
floor
vegetation
changed
from
dense
cowberry
to
grasses
and
shrubs
with
high
water
tolerance
(Ohta
et
al.,
2014).
These
same
processes
are
evident
at
the
aforementioned
Yukechi
site
(see
Fig.
7),
with
the
increased
moisture
and
deepening
of
the
active
layer
in
side
slopes
of
young
(only
decades
old)
thermokarst
lakes
resulting
in
lake
expansion,
topographic
instability
and
adjacent
forest
erosion.
Generally,
an
increasing
total
lake
area
in
Central
Sakha-Yakutia
was
also
reported
by
e.g.
Kravtsova
and
Tarasenko
(2011),
Boike
et
al.
(2016)
over
the
last
decades.
The
exact
causes
of
lake
area
changes
are
complex,
however,
and
depend
on
regional
and
local
factors
including
the
specific
alaas’s
permafrost
zonation
(contin-
uous
vs.
discontinuous),
ground-ice
content,
size
and
its
geomor-
phological
composition
(e.g.,
Ulrich
et
al.,
2017b).
In
addition
to
the
cascading
ecosystem
effects
due
to
increased
soil
moisture,
extreme
fire
seasons
now
occur
with
more
frequency
and
are
characterized
by
dry
periods
with
high
air
temperature
and
low
relative
humidity.
Recent
studies
showed
that
the
period
of
high
fire
danger
under
current
climate
conditions
in
the
central
and
western
lowlands
of
the
Sakha
Republic
is
as
long
as
50-
60
days.
According
to
future
climate
scenarios,
it
will
increase
on
average
by
20–30
days
by
the
end
of
the
century
(Tchebakova
et
al.,
2009).
The
overall
trend
of
an
increase
in
forest
fires
further
exacerbates
the
unprecedented
thermal
and
hydrological
con-
ditions
of
the
active
layer
described
above
and
the
related
changes
in
vegetation.
To
summarize
this
geoscientific
section,
observations
of
climate,
water
and
land
cover
show
an
overall
increase
in
both
precipitation
and
in
air
and
ground
temperatures,
which
has
translated
to
an
acceleration
of
thermokarst
activity
in
the
central
and
western
lowlands
of
the
Sakha
Republic.
These
findings
are
further
substantiated
by
social
science
investigations
documenting
local
inhabitants’
observations
of
environmental
change
affecting
the
alaas
ecosystem
economy.
3.3.
Social
science
studies
3.3.1.
Longitudinal
research
with
Viliui
Sakha
Long-term
ethnographic
research
with
Viliui
region
communi-
ties
shows
multiple
aspects
of
environmental
change,
many
of
which
can
be
ultimately
related
to
climate
change
(Crate,
2008,
2011,
2015).
Based
on
focus
groups,
interviews
and
surveys
in
four
Viliui
Sakha
communities,
inhabitants
identified
nine
main
changes
that
were
before
unknown
to
them
and
challenging
their
livelihood.
They
were:
1)
winters
are
warm;
2)
too
much
water
on
the
land;
3)
too
much
rain;
4)
summers
are
cold;
5)
more
floods;
6)
seasons
arrive
late;
7)
too
much
snow;
8)
temperatures
change
suddenly;
9)
less
birds
and
animals.
These
changes
affect
rural
inhabitants’
livelihoods,
most
significantly
their
cattle
and
horse
breeding
activities,
but
also
their
foraging
(hunting,
fishing,
gathering)
and
gardening
activities
with
which
they
supplement
their
diet.
Among
these,
analysis
of
findings
showed
that
inhabitants
are
most
concerned
about
the
increase
of
water
on
the
land,
which
not
Fig.
8.
Tyungyulyu
alaas-lake
level
and
climatic
conditions.
(A)
Water
level
of
Tyungyulyu
alaas
lake
in
October.
(B)
Mean
air
temperature
during
warm
season
(May
to
September).
(C)
Total
amounts
of
precipitation
during
warm
season
(May
to
September).
98
S.
Crate
et
al.
/
Anthropocene
18
(2017)
89–104

only
impacts
hay
production
but
also
effects
many
aspects
of
Sakha
livelihood.
The
increased
water
on
the
land
limits
access
to
forest
and
other
needed
resources.
Furthermore,
because
many
settle-
ments
are
located
around
lakes
for
water
access,
households
closest
to
the
village
lake
find
themselves
needing
to
relocate
their
house
farther
back
as
the
damp
conditions
undermine
the
house
structure
and
rot
the
foundation.
Many
complain
that
they
can
no
longer
use
their
buluus
(underground
cold
storage)
because
water
has
permeated
the
frozen
layer
and
flooded
the
storage
cavity.
Inhabitants
and
regional
representatives
report
more
floods,
wetter
ground,
and
higher
amounts
of
rain
and
snow
(Crate,
2011).
These
conditions
not
only
affect
hay
production
for
fodder
but
also
work
to
decrease
available
forage
when
animals
go
to
pasture
during
the
temperate
months.
Lastly,
the
increased
water
on
the
land
floods
into
adjacent
forests
and
tree
roots
suffocate,
leading
to
gradual
decline
of
the
forest.
As
shown
by
Fedorov
et
al.
(2014),
the
increase
of
water
on
the
land
is
a
combination
of
the
increase
in
precipitation,
especially
in
the
winter
months
(which,
when
it
thaws
in
spring,
produces
large
volumes
of
water),
and
water
from
thawing
permafrost,
rising
up
from
below.
In
addition,
hay
production
is
also
affected
by
precipitation
patterns,
which
are
tending
towards
less
rain
in
the
spring
and
more
in
the
summer,
especially
during
the
critical
hay
cutting
time.
The
difficulty
of
harvesting
sufficient
hay
and
being
able
to
access
usable
pasture
has
led
some
to
stop
keeping
cattle.
When
author
S.
Crate
asked
longtime
herding
households
in
2012
why
they
decided
to
stop
horse
and
cattle
breeding,
however,
their
reasons
were
not
just
about
forage
and
fodder
(Crate,
2014,
2016).
Many
spoke
about
how
their
youth
had
gone
to
the
city
for
work
or
higher
education
and
decided
not
to
return,
leaving
them
with
less
of
a
need
to
produce
meat
and
milk
in
the
amounts
they
used
to
and
also
without
the
work
force
needed
for
hay-making
in
the
summers.
In
addition,
many
said
that
now
they
can
buy
all
they
need
since
the
village
stores
are
fully
stocked.
Explanations
like
this
were
common,
‘We
used
to
get
most
of
our
household
food
from
our
animals,
garden
and
nature.
Now
we
get
most
of
it
from
the
store.
Back
then
everything
was
deficit
in
the
store—I
remember
getting
in
line
the
night
before
for
some
deficit
item—a
women’s
dress
or
other—now
the
stores
are
full
and
we
are
having
a
deficit
of
cow
products!
That's
a
big
change,
if
you
ask
me.
.’
(Viliui
Sakha
householder,
summer
2012).
Although
many
are
‘freeing
themselves
of
the
cow
barn’,
in
each
village
there
are
several
households
who
are
not
only
maintaining
their
herds
but
expanding,
taking
advantage
of
the
newfound
market,
since
their
neighbors
prefer
the
local
meat
and
milk
over
store
bought.
Overall,
this
research
clarifies
the
importance
of
long-term
social
science
work
and
collaboration
with
affected
communities
in
order
to
not
only
document
communities’
rich
local
knowledge
of
change
but
also
to
ascertain
how
other
drivers
interact
in
climate
processes.
3.3.2.
Preliminary
findings
in
the
Central
Yakutian
regions
While
all
these
observations
have
been
documented
for
the
Viliui
region
(Crate,
2011,
2015;
Crate
et
al.,
2013)
they
are
not
limited
to
that
part
of
Sakha.
Nascent
social
science
research
with
residents
of
Central
Sakha-Yakutia
(in
and
around
Tyungyulyu
and
Maija,
Fig.
2B)
show
similar
trends,
despite
the
fact
that
hydrographic
and
climatic
conditions
are
locally
diverse
(Y.
Zhegusov,
personal
communication,
July
2015).
For
instance
at
Tyungyulyu
residents
observe
multi-annual
oscillations
of
alaas
lake
size
with
direct
impact
on
pastures
and
hay-making
areas.
Local
perceptions
of
less
predictable
seasonal
air
temperatures
and
precipitation,
along
with
occasional
reports
about
invasive
species,
imply
a
general
change
in
regional
climate
conditions
in
the
Lena-
Aldan
interfluve.
In
summary,
local
inhabitants
have
expertise
that
contributes
richly
to
a
more
nuanced
understanding
of
alaas
degradation
and
change.
Given
the
highly
specific
nature
of
alaas
change
depending
of
the
properties
of
the
alaas
in
question,
inhabitants’
expert
knowledge
reveals
how
change
is
occurring
in
very
place-specific
ways.
Additionally,
given
inhabitants’
long-term
residence
and
use
in
these
locales,
they
also
offer
a
potentially
viable
agency
for
on-
the-ground
alaas
observation
and
effective
adaptive
response.
4.
Integration
and
communication
of
knowledge
as
a
basis
for
adaptation
strategies
While
findings
based
on
local
inhabitants’
perceptions
and
observations
described
above
are
in
general
agreement
with
scientific
observations
on
environmental
change,
they
also
show
some
dissonance.
This
does
not
mean
that
either
is
less
credible,
however,
but
rather
that
other
factors
need
to
be
taken
into
consideration
when
corroborating
these
two
knowledge
domains.
Consider
this
example:
while
corroborating
the
nine
main
changes
of
Viliui
Sakkha
with
scientific
data,
there
was
dissonance
when
considering
inhabitants’
observation
of
‘too
much
rain’
and
precipitation
data
of
the
last
20
years.
The
data
showed
no
significant
increase.
Although
the
tendency
may
have
been
to
discount
inhabitants’
claim
of
‘too
much
rain,’
with
an
anthropo-
logical
appreciation
for
why
people
may
make
such
a
claim,
namely
that
the
seasonal
precipitation
patterns
had
changed
to
bring
more
rain
during
the
hay
season
and
less
in
spring,
it
became
clear
that
both
domains
were
correct.
This
kind
of
consideration
is
critical
to
understand
the
cultural
implications
of
global
change
research.
Furthermore,
identifying
the
gaps
between
the
two
domains,
shows
their
complementarity.
In
consultations
in
the
Viliui
regions
and
in
Tyungyulyu,
inhabitants
possess
detailed
knowledge
of
seasonal
weather,
lake-surface
and
vegetation
changes;
but
they
are
less
knowledgeable
about
ground
temperatures
and
the
causal
connections
of
thermokarst
processes
with
landscape
changes.
Scientific
observations,
in
turn,
do
not
sufficiently
acknowledge
the
cultural
and
spiritual
significance
of
alaas
landscapes.
Moreover,
agricultural
policies
and
engineering
activities,
despite
their
scientific
basis,
often
lead
to
negative
consequences,
as
exempli-
fied
by
soil
compaction
or
construction
activities
in
thermokarst-
sensitive
areas.
The
integration
of
the
two
domains
of
knowledge
allows
local
inhabitants
to
better
assess
the
causal
interconnec-
tions
of
landscape
change
and
the
speed
and
scale
of
it.
Reversely,
empirical
studies
can
incorporate
surface-change
observations
and
better
comprehend
the
importance
of
land-use
activities
over
past
decades
and
centuries
and
current
socio-economic
processes
when
assessing
and
forecasting
environmental
change
(Table
1).
For
local
inhabitants
and
external
observers
alike,
the
consequences
of
climate
change
are
topical,
but
the
complexity
of
environmental
processes
is
sometimes
hard
to
assess
and
may
lead
to
misinterpretations.
Considering
that
human
land-use
strategies
of
alaas
actively
utilize
processes
of
thawing,
including
permafrost
degradation,
soil
subsidence,
and
thermokarst
forma-
tion,
it
may
appear
that
this
type
of
land
use
would
benefit
from
higher
annual
air
and
soil
temperatures.
If
land
use
is
based
on
thermokarst,
why
then
be
concerned
about
the
prospect
for
a
warmer
climate?
At
least
two
reasons
are
possible.
First,
pastoral
land
use
depends
on
“mature”
forms
of
thermokarst,
those
which
have
developed
over
thousands
of
years,
whereas
the
initial
forms
of
thermokarst
–
boggy,
inundated
areas
–
are
detrimental
to
this
economy.
Second,
the
speed
and
scope
of
contemporary
thawing
challenges
users’
adaptive
capacity.
Furthermore,
in
the
Sakha
Republic
as
elsewhere
in
the
Russian
North
(Karjalainen
and
Habeck,
2004),
local
inhabitants
perceive
environmental
change
as
one
of
a
wider
array
of
processes,
S.
Crate
et
al.
/
Anthropocene
18
(2017)
89–104
99

including
social
and
economic
change
(c.f.
Crate,
2014).
As
detailed
in
the
Viliui
Sakha
case
above,
the
decision
of
whether
or
not
to
continue
pastoralism
in
alaas
ecosystems
hinges
not
only
on
regional
aspects
of
climate
change
but
also
on
work
conditions
and
technological
innovations,
other
sources
of
monetary
and
non-
monetary
income,
opportunities
for
youth
out-migration
to
the
city,
the
next
generation’s
intent
to
and
economic
opportunity
to
continue
pastoralism,
and
the
symbolic
importance
alaas
pasto-
ralism
has
for
inhabitants.
All
these
factors
determine
present
and
future
alaas
use
and
contribute
to
the
other
factors,
geomorpho-
logical
and
ecosystemic,
that
have
repercussions
on
the
alaas
as
an
object
of
study.
Considering
the
central
role
alaas
play
in
local
economies
and
the
unprecedented
physical
and
sociocultural
changes
affecting
them,
the
next
questions
concern
how
communities,
scientists
and
other
stakeholders
can
best
integrate
their
knowledge
systems
towards
holistic
understanding,
thereby
envisioning
more
realistic
future
scenarios,
and
making
more
evidence-based
policy
recom-
mendations
that
accommodate,
as
best
they
can,
unprecedented
change.
Historically,
scientists
have
considered
the
natural
environment
as
relatively
stable
and
human
activity
as
introducing
change
and
degradation
into
that
stability.
This
view
takes
humans
out
of
“the
Environment”
(Ingold,
2000).
Ethnographic
studies
show
that
inhabitants
of
Siberia,
and
most
world
locations,
tend
toward
a
common
set
of
subsistence
and
land
use
practices
in
their
respective
environment,
developed
over
centuries
and
with
an
ability
to
adapt
and
respond
to
ecological
and
economic
fluctuations.
Ecosystem
stability
is
more
often
a
consequence
of
resilience
or
“the
ability
of
these
systems
to
absorb
changes
and
still
persist”
(Berkes,
2008).
However,
contemporary
climate
change
introduces
unprecedented
conditions,
challenging
and
tending
to
outpace
resilience,
wherein
“nature
[is]
on
the
move”
(Takakura,
2012;
Takakura,
2015).
In
some
contexts,
the
pace
of
change
renders
local
adaptive
practices
ineffective.
One
way
to
bolster
local
adaptive
capacity
in
these
contexts
is
for
researchers
to
communicate
their
findings
and
global
change
information
to
affected
populations
(Alexandrov
et
al.,
2010).
Within
the
region
under
study,
there
are
not
only
some
incongruences
between
local
inhabitants’
and
scientific
percep-
tions
of
environmental
change,
but
also
a
wide
gulf
between
these
groups’
perceptions
of
societal
action
and
stakeholder
involvement
(Forbes
and
Stammler,
2009;
Stammler-Gossmann,
2010b).
The
knowledge
exchanges
initiated
by
authors
Crate
and
Fedorov
in
the
Viliui
region
(Section
3.3.1)
directly
addressed
this
gap:
their
objective
was
both
to
communicate
scientific
knowledge
of
regional
change
in
the
local
vernacular
for
inhabitants
but
also
to
validate
and
corroborate
inhabitants’
local
knowledge
of
how
global
climate
change
was
affecting
local
conditions.
Following
the
exchanges,
the
team
published
a
succinct,
easily
accessible
handbook,
emulating
the
knowledge
exchange
process
and
communicating
critical
information,
all
in
the
Sakha
language,
which
was
distributed
throughout
Viliui-Sakha
communities
(Crate
et
al.,
2013).
Scientists
and
local
stakeholders
have
started
to
jointly
develop
practical
recommendations
to:
identify
areas
unsuitable
for
construction
work
because
of
thermokarst
risk;
design
tempera-
ture
insulation
of
houses
in
rural
communities
(Crate
et
al.,
2013);
provide
adequate
machinery
for
hay-making
in
sensitive
areas;
and
consult
on
fodder
distribution
networks
that
help
cattle
and
horse
breeders.
Today,
the
Ministry
of
Agriculture
already
distributes
hay
and
artificial
feed
(Press-sluzhba,
2013)
and
helps
brigades
of
hayworkers
find
hayfields
in
other
administrative
units.
Hay
production
networks
among
river
islands
and
alaas
have
been
established
to
secure
the
continuation
of
cattle
and
horse
breeding
in
cases
of
summer
floods
(Takakura,
2015).
5.
Future
prospects
for
the
alaas
ecosystems
in
the
Republic
of
Sakha
(Yakutia)
5.1.
Predictions
of
environmental
change
The
IPCC’s
(Intergovernmental
Panel
on
Climate
Change)
fifth
assessment
clearly
links
increasing
air
temperatures
with
perma-
frost
decrease
(IPCC
(Intergovernmental
Panel
on
Climate
Change),
2013).
The
smallest-change
scenario
(RCP2.6)
predicts
that
by
the
end
of
the
21th
century
the
near-surface
permafrost
area
will
shrink
by
37%,
whereas
the
scenario
with
highest
confidence
(RCP8.5)
predicts
a
shrinkage
of
81%.
Scientists
also
predict
a
significant
thawing
of
near-surface
permafrost
by
the
end
of
the
21st
century
for
large
parts
of
Russia,
Alaska,
and
Canada
(Slater
and
Lawrence,
2013).
This
thawing
will
increase
the
active
layer
thickness,
expand
taliks
(i.e.
bodies
of
unfrozen
ground
within
the
permafrost)
and
thermokarst
processes.
Melting
ground
ice
and
an
increase
of
the
mean
active-layer
thickness
will
release
vast
amounts
of
water
(e.g.,
Fedorov
et
al.,
2014).
Such
release
of
water
will
greatly
expand
lakes
and
the
adjacent
water-logged
territories
within
the
alaas
and
cause
catastrophic
flooding
of
small
rivers
in
summer.
Increasing
the
depth
of
seasonal
thawing
transforms
the
water
balance
of
permafrost
areas
which
will
cascade
multiple
effects
on
biodiversity,
ecosystem
productivity
and
human
use
of
large
areas
(Iijima
et
al.,
2014).
However,
prediction
of
permafrost
landscape
change
is
not
straightforward.
It
involves
much
uncertainty,
considering
the
cascading
ecosystem
effects,
the
sociocultural
interactions
and
incomplete
understanding
of
alaas
processes
to
date.
Consider
that
the
IPCC
value
of
global
temperature
increase
using
its
conserva-
tive
scenario
PTC2.6
amounts
to
+1

C
by
the
end
of
this
century
(IPCC
(Intergovernmental
Panel
on
Climate
Change),
2013),
close
to
the
warming
during
the
Holocene
climate
optimum,
when
most
alaas
of
Central
Sakha-Yakutia
were
formed.
The
alaas
density
map
compiled
by
Bosikov
and
Ivanov
(1978)
suggests
that
the
consequences
of
such
temperature
change
today
may
be
less
drastic
than
expected,
as
it
shows
that
with
a
+1

C
change
during
the
Holocene
climate
optimum
only
10–20%
of
the
ice
complex
in
Central
Siberia
did
undergo
degradation.
This
strongly
indicates
that
the
resilience
of
alaas
permafrost
landscapes
might
be
sufficient
to
save
80–90%
of
permafrost
areas
of
the
ice-complex
type,
i.e.
areas
with
underlying
large
ice
wedges
and
high
ground-
ice
contents.
To
illustrate
the
dynamism
of
this
system
further,
this
resilience
can
be
offset
by
vulnerability
specific
to
local/regional
context,
including
vegetative
land-cover
conditions
and
geomorphology
(Jorgenson
et
al.,
2010).
In
forested
areas,
permafrost
stability
is
usually
buffered
by
the
shielding
layer
(i.e.
transient
layer),
preventing
the
underlying
icy
deposits
from
thaw
even
under
severe
climate
change
(Shur
et
al.,
2011).
Research
suggests
that
in
the
late
Pleistocene
and
early
Holocene,
the
shielding
layer
below
forested
permafrost
landscapes
preserved
the
ice
complex
from
thaw
(Konishev,
2011).
The
presence
of
a
sufficiently
strong
shielding
ground
layer
(up
to
1
m)
in
contemporary
boreal
forests
of
the
Sakha
Republic
testifies
to
the
stability
of
permafrost
in
forest
landscapes.
Katamura
et
al.
(2009a,b),
however,
show
that
forest
fires
were
one
of
the
multiple
causes
that
induced
thermokarst
processes
and,
finally,
over
several
hundreds
to
thousands
of
years
the
formation
of
alaas,
as
evidenced
by
the
remains
of
charcoal
in
alaas
sediments.
The
risk
of
permafrost
degradation
is
thus
generally
higher
in
disturbed
landscapes
(e.g.,
those
affected
by
forest
fires)
and
open,
treeless
areas
underlayed
by
ice-rich
deposits
in
which
the
shielding
layer
decreases
or
is
absent.
If
in
such
areas
the
depth
of
seasonal
thawing
reaches
the
horizon
of
the
ice
complex,
rapid
degradation
is
very
likely
to
100
S.
Crate
et
al.
/
Anthropocene
18
(2017)
89–104

ensue.
Such
areas
must
frequently
be
abandoned,
if
they
were
used
as
croplands
(Ulrich
et
al.,
2017b;
see
also
Fig.
7).
Geomorphological
characteristics
also
factor
into
vulnerability.
According
to
Bosikov
and
Ivanov
(1978),
in
the
previous
eras
of
climate
warming
the
better-drained
surface
of
the
Abalakh
ice
complex
in
the
Lena-
Aldan
interfluve
region
(Fig.
2B)
was
less
affected
by
degradation
than
the
less
drained
surface
of
the
Tyungyulyu
terrace,
which
accumulated
considerable
amounts
of
surface
and
supra-permafrost
water.
Moreover,
future
predictions
must
accommodate
a
multitude
of
nascent
factors
relevant
to
our
contemporary
world,
perhaps
most
importantly
being
the
alteration
of
carbon
(C)
fluxes
and
greenhouse
gas
(GHG)
emissions.
Three
aspects
relevant
to
alaas
ecosystems
are:
first,
The
reduction
of
the
soil
C
stock
from
utilization
of
thermokarst
basins
as
pastures
and
hay-making
areas
(Desyatkin
et
al.,
2007);
second,
The
increased
emission
of
GHGs
from
medium-moist
and
wet
grasslands
in
hot
summers
(Takakai
et
al.,
2008);
and
third,
the
significant
emissions
of
methane
due
to
decomposition
of
carbon
stored
in
flooded
grasslands
and
during
thaw
processes
below
thermokarst
lakes
(e.g.,
Desyatkin
et
al.,
2009;
see
also
Schuur
et
al.,
2015
and
references
therein).
5.2.
Changes
in
the
conditions
of
rural
livelihoods
dependent
upon
alaas
Future
predictions
of
alaas-landscape
development
must
factor
in
socio-economic
and
cultural
change.
The
post-Soviet
transition
continues
to
evolve
and,
as
detailed
in
section
3.3.1,
recent
research
documents
how
inhabitants
are
challenged
by
a
complexity
of
change
(Crate,
2014).
Within
this
paradigm
the
development
of
rural
economies
that
create
local
jobs
and
household
incomes
is
to
date
lacking.
While
virtually
all
rural
districts
of
the
Sakha
Republic
have
seen
significant
youth
out-migration
to
the
city
of
Yakutsk
(Argounova-Low,
2007),
trends
vary
widely.
In
the
central
part
of
the
Republic
where
villages
are
adjacent
to
the
urban
area,
many
extended
families
maintain
households
in
both
the
city
and
countryside
(G.
Belolyubskaya,
personal
communication,
July
2015).
Such
changes
in
residency
patterns
will
potentially
create
higher
demand
for
alaas
areas
closer
to
the
city,
but
also
new
options
for
milk
and
meat
producers
farther
away.
Simultaneously,
rural
livelihoods
can
offer
a
fallback
option
in
times
of
economic
crises.
Viliui
Sakha
research
suggests
that
although
household-level
cow
keeping
may
be
in
decline,
entrepreneurial
initiatives
of
extended
kin
households
keeping
larger
herds
to
supply
local
markets
is
on
the
rise
(Crate,
2014).
These
entrepreneurs
are
taking
advantage
of
the
market
created
when
their
neighbors
discontinue
cow
keeping
and
are
rendered
clients
because
they
continue
to
prefer
the
taste
and
quality
of
local
products.
In
fact,
the
development
of
several
such
entrepreneurial
efforts
in
each
of
author
Crate’s
research
villages
suggests
this
may
be
the
gradual
evolution
to
an
efficient
local
economy
wherein
instead
of
all
households
maintaining
the
cows-and-kin
food
production
system
(Crate,
2006a),
several
extended
households
engage
in
meat
and
milk
production
for
their
communities
(Crate,
2016).
Thus,
in
turn,
may
work
in
favor
of
these
small-scale
entrepreneurial
efforts
and
thus
sustain
alaas-based
pastoralism
in
the
future,
despite
that
it
will
not
regain
the
spatial
extent
it
had
in
previous
centuries
due
to
environmental
constraints.
Furthermore,
the
intensity
and
spatial
pattern
of
alaas
use
today
is
often
determined
by
two
other
factors:
access
to
technological
rather
than
manual
methods
of
both
hay
harvesting
and
drainage
techniques,and
property
and
institutional
land-use
arrangements.
Finally,
for
the
herders
who
continue
their
craft,
the
last
decade
has
seen
a
trend
away
from
the
work-intensive
responsibilities
of
cattle
breeding,
involving
daily
milking,
feeding,
watering,
barn
cleaning,
etc.
in
an
economic
environment
where
sale
of
products
is
less
and
less
profitable.
Instead,
many
are
opting
for
horse
breeding
which
involves
no
daily
work
since
horses
roam
freely
in
harems
and
can
produce
meat
in
a
year
from
birth.
Both
the
cow
and
the
horse
stand
in
a
complementary
economic
and
also
symbolic
relation-
ship.
Currently,he
horse
has
higher
significance
as
a
prestige
animal
and
symbol
of
Sakha
identity,
with
horse
meat
being
praised
as
a
Sakha
delicacy
(Maj
2009;
Stammler
2010;
Stammler-
Gossmann,
2010a).
All
these
factors
interact
with
and
are
complicated
by
the
physical
conditions
of
the
alaas,
such
as
soil
temperature,
moisture,
rising
and
shrinking
water
levels
and
forage
quality.
6.
Conclusion
To
effectively
study
how
climate
change
may
influence
northern
livelihoods
in
the
context
of
the
many
interactions
of
diverse
agents
–
humans,
other
sentient
beings
and
the
dynamics
of
the
natural
world
–
this
article
presents
an
interdisciplinary
approach
surpassing
language
barriers
between
the
international
scientific
community,
regional
scholars
and
local
residents.
Scientific
observations
of
climate,
water
and
land
cover
show
an
overall
increase
in
precipitation
and
in
air
and
ground
temper-
atures,
which
has
translated
to
an
acceleration
of
thermokarst
activity
in
the
central
and
western
lowlands
of
the
Sakha
Republic.
These
findings
generally
concur
with
social
science
investigations
documenting
local
inhabitants’
reports
on
environmental
change
affecting
the
alaas
ecosystem
and
economy.
Covering
the
physical
and
socio-cultural
development
of
alaas
shows
that
in
the
last
three
decades
significant
changes
of
permafrost
landscapes
and
associated
alaas
land-use
practices
have
occurred.
Combining
these
domains
of
knowledge
through
novel
forms
of
communica-
tion
between
scientists,
regional
scholars
and
local
inhabitants,
this
article
has
reviewed,
portrayed,
and
analyzed
the
changes
documented
during
the
last
three
decades,
and
identified
the
range
of
factors
that
need
to
be
considered
when
forecasting
permafrost
dynamics
and
their
consequences
in
the
near
future.
Several
areas
demand
further
research.
First,
it
is
key
to
study
the
spatial
and
temporal
hydrological
and
ground-thermal
conditions
in
order
to
understand
the
ecological
system
of
thermokarst
regions
in
their
full
complexity.
As
of
now,
hydrology
is
one
of
the
least
understood
domains
of
alaas
and
thermokarst
development.
Second,
there
is
a
need
for
more
detailed
informa-
tion
of
settlement
and
land
use
history,
including
the
effects
of
artificial
drainage
and
irrigation,
at
specific
alaas
sites
to
understand
human-induced
landscape
changes.
Third,
the
exact
function
of
the
shielding
layer
is
insufficiently
understood,
as
is
the
impact
of
forest
fires
and
changes
in
the
vegetation
cover
more
generally.
Fourth,
in
rural
communities
in
the
Viliui
Regions
and
Central
Sakha
there
needs
to
be
investigation
examining
the
decisions
of
members
of
different
generations
whether
to
leave
or
stay
(along
with
the
economic
and
legal
aspects
that
stand
behind
these).
Who
will
work
in
the
alaas
in
the
future?
Fifth,
in
the
light
of
old
policies
and
subsidies
having
waned
and
with
a
view
to
new
patterns
and
predilections
of
food
consumption,
the
question
of
cattle
breed
should
be
subjected
to
a
new
assessment.
The
traditional
Sakha
breed
of
cattle
has
less
milk
output
but
is
also
less
demanding
in
forage
quantity.
Is
the
reintroduction
of
Sakha
local
breed
a
viable
option
in
the
likely
context
of
pasture
deterioration?
Sixth,
and
academically
particularly
challenging,
is
the
demand
for
closer
integration
of
different
types
of
data
and
different
time
scales.
The
timespan
of
biographical
memory,
rarely
extending
beyond
the
1940s,
and
the
historical
record
of
Sakha
residence
in
the
alaas
regions,
which
comprises
up
to
800
years,
may
at
first
glance
seem
incompatible
with
the
temporal
scope
of
soil
profiles
or
palaeoclimatic
pollen
analysis.
S.
Crate
et
al.
/
Anthropocene
18
(2017)
89–104
101

The
exceptionally
rapid
character
of
thermokarst
development
allows
and
requires
juxtaposition
with
local
residents’
observa-
tions
and
memories.
The
alaas
therefore
lends
itself
as
an
ideal
opportunity
for
transdisciplinary
studies
of
environmental
change.
Moreover,
it
presents
an
exemplary
case
of
indigenous
land
use
in
a
context
of
rapid,
anticipated
and
in
some
occasions
consciously
triggered
modifications
of
the
landscape.
These
dynamics
make
the
local
Sakha
communities
particularly
apt
observers
of
environmental
change.
By
the
same
token,
the
recently
accelerat-
ing
speed
and
magnitude
of
change
appears
to
call
for
new
strategies
of
adaptation.
Finally,
a
central
conclusion
is
the
insight
that
the
future
of
the
alaas
ecosystem
and
type
of
land
use

and
more
generally,
of
land
use
in
subarctic
and
arctic
regions

depends
not
only
on
the
speed
and
scale
of
environmental
change,
but
also,
and
to
no
lesser
degree,
on
global,
national,
and
regional
socio-economic
factors,
such
as
demographic
development,
technological
change,
political
dynamics,
and
cultural
significance
of
food
and
rural
livelihoods.
In
the
alaas
context,
ecosystem
change
driven
by
human
activity
at
the
regional
and
local
levels,
including
indigenous
ways
of
engaging
with
the
land
and
socio-economic
factors,
either
induces
or
reduces
the
intensity
of
land
use.
This
changing
intensity
especially
occurs
in
the
remoter
alaas
regions,
while
physical
and
ecological
factors
define
the
limits
of
areas
to
be
used
for
pasture
and
haymaking.
Artificial
draining
and
other
modifications
of
alaas
landscapes
can
shift
these
limits,
as
the
historical
record
has
shown,
but
only
to
some
extent,
and
sometimes
with
unintended
consequences,
deteriorating
the
preconditions
of
future
land
use.
Acknowledgments
This
research
has
been
supported
by
the
IPA
as
part
of
activities
of
the
IPA
Action
Group
“Permafrost
and
Culture
(PaC):
Integrating
environmental,
geo-,
and
social
sciences
to
assess
permafrost
dynamics
and
indigenous
land
use”.
An
exploratory
workshop
in
Helsinki
in
April
2014
was
financially
supported
by
the
Interna-
tional
Arctic
Science
Committee
(IASC).
S.C.
was
supported
by
the
National
Science
Foundation
Office
of
Polar
Programs
(NSF
Grant
No.:
0710935
and
0902146).
M.U.
was
supported
by
the
German
Research
Foundation
(DFG
Grant
No.:
UL426/1-1).
H.K.
was
supported
by
Japan
Society
for
Promotion
of
Science
(Project:
Effect
analysis
on
Arctic
indigenous
societies
from
the
global
warming
with
the
interdisciplinary
approach
to
the
micro-
environment
history,
22310148).
We
are
very
grateful
to
all
participants
of
the
International
Permafrost
Association
(IPA)
–
Action
Group
(Field-)
Workshop
“Yakutsk-PaC
2015”
who
contrib-
uted
with
helpful
insights
and
discussions
on
the
here
covered
topic.
We
also
like
to
thank
C.
Siegert
(Alfred
Wegener
Institute
(AWI)
Potsdam)
for
fruitful
discussions
and
helpful
comments
during
an
earlier
stage
of
this
work.
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