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FOR CITATIONS: Yihdego, Y., Khalil, A., and Salem, H.S. (2017). Nile River’s Basin Dispute: Perspectives of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Global Journal of HUMAN-SOCIAL SCIENCE: B Geography, Geo-Sciences, Environmental Science & Disaster Management. 17(2): Version: 1.0. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317372179_Nile_River's_Basin_Dispute_Perspectives_of_the_Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam_GERD ABSTRACT: Transboundary river basins are under increasing pressure due to population growth, agricultural and industrial developments, and climate change, as well as river pollution. Water scarcity is on the increase due to the increasing gap between water demands and supply. This will result in more tensions, disputes, conflicts, and deadlocks in negotiations over water distribution, length of time it takes to fill the eservoir, and allocation. Ethiopia is building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River with a hydropower capacity of 6,000 MW. The total estimated cost of the project is US$ 4.8 Billion and will be the largest dam in Africa, which is much larger than the Aswan Dam in Egypt. Regional controversies have risen over the construction of the dam between Ethiopia and the downstream countries (Sudan and Egypt). The Blue Nile River is a source of around 85% of the Nile River water. Egypt claims that GERD will reduce flow of water in the Nile River between 11 and 19 billion m3(BCM) which will affect 2 million people and will also interrupt electricity supplies 25 to 40%. The real scale of the environmental impacts of GERD, under construction upstream of the Nile River, together with the rising sea levels, due to climate change, leading to saltwater intrusion downstream, are still not clear. But for Ethiopians GERD is empowering development and contribution to their future. With the Nile, no longer Egyptian birthright, and the Nile Delta gradually disappearing into the Mediterranean sea, millions of Egypt’s people will inevitably need to look elsewhere for a livable future. The crises, therefore, necessities the adaptation of a more effective institutional arrangement, such as through Rowland-Ostrom Framework, for common pool shared water resource management and cooperative approach to address and resolve present and future problems, including on other common transboundary resources (forest, oil/gas and minerals).The need for expanding traditional integrated water resources management to better include the cultural, social and political complexity of the GERD is the key factor to reconcile the contrasting concepts of “nationalism” and “regional hydro solidarity”. Connecting Nile and Congo water system, through diverting water by digging a 600-km canal together with pumping stations and other massive infrastructure to transport water from the Congo Basin to the Nile Basin has been suggested as an alternative way of ensuring Egypt’s water security. As part of mitigation measures, Egypt needs to invest in desalinization for fresh water, water-saving drip irrigation, and come up with an Aquifer Storage Recovery (ASR) scheme, artificial recharge and scheduled water extraction, to minimize the cumulative effect of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and seawater intrusion downstream along the Mediterranean coast.
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... These included flood reduction, controlled and uniform flow of water, drought mitigation, increased water as a result of constant flow, reduction of water losses by infiltration and evaporation, and sedimentation control (Ethiopian National Panel of Experts, 2013; Jeuland et al., 2014;Khalil et al., 2017;Belachew, 2013;Basheer et al., 2020). ...
... An informant recalled that the GERD is an emancipatory project as it has transformed the spirit of "impossible" into the spirit of "possible," both in idealistic and practical terms (interview with a researcher at the Institute of Foreign Affairs, November 2021). It is also seen as a symbol of revivalism, self-reliance, and self-esteem, and a sign of modernity (Yalemzewd, 2020;Khalil et al., 2017;Zeray, 2017). It has revived the spirit and values of the Battle of Adwa (Interview with Senior Transboundary Resources Affairs expert at the Ministry of Water and Energy, July 2023), a historic event that transcended provincialism, ethnicity, gender, religion, and other social classes (Maimire, 2005). ...
... Some of the benefits to Sudan include an increase in hydropower generation capacity for its seasonal storage dams, reduction of damages caused by seasonal flood, enhanced potential for irrigated agriculture, water conservation, reduced evaporation, sediment control, navigation opportunities, and the option to purchase power from the GERD project (Office of National Council, 2017a:9;Jeuland et al., 2014;Khalil et al., 2017;Belachew, 2013;Basheer et al., 2020;He et al., 2022;Getachew et al., 2020). ...
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This study examined the geopolitical implications of the GERD project in light of the ‗framework of benefit-sharing‘. The study adopted a qualitative research approach in which data were gathered from multiple sources, such as key informant interviews, books, journal articles, policy briefs, commentary, and opinions; and documents such as declarations, agreements, letters, and statements, water policies, government communications, reports, and media sources. In light of this, the paper argues that GERD foreshadows a new emergent order based on principles of benefit-sharing capable of replacing the existing inequitable water-sharing regime. The GERD has the potential to create cooperation between the riparian countries because of its proven benefits to the region. The potential cost of non-cooperation may also push Egypt towards opting for cooperation. Furthermore, the GERD could shift the power dynamics by positioning Ethiopia as a regional anchor state, which could further enhance prospects for cooperation. The study also highlights that the conflict over the GERD extends beyond the physicality of the dam and is deeply rooted in the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egypt perceives the GERD as an existential threat to its existing water-sharing regime while Ethiopia regards it as a benefit-sharing project and an existential necessity. However, the study highlights the possibility that the GERD may transform the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt from a water-based conflict into a power trade competition, implying that cooperation and conflict, competition and cooperation, may coexist in this complex geopolitical landscape. The study implies that understanding the geopolitical implications of the GERD is crucial for navigating the complexities of the issue and finding sustainable solutions. Keywords: Geopolitics, GERD, Benefit-sharing, Water-sharing, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nile
... This crisis has raised great concerns among large sectors of the Egyptian society, especially in light of recalling such statements as "water war", "water militarization", "military management of the GERD crisis", "water terrorism", "Ethiopian hydro-hegemony over the Nile Basin." (Financial Times, 2012;Yihdego et al., 2017). p1105 ...
... Ethiopia completed the "Tekeze" hydropower Dam and "Belesse" Hydropower Dam. Later it started the establishment of the Renaissance Dam without any notification to the downstream state (Egypt) (Yihdego et al., 2017). p1190 ...
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Sharing of international water resources has been a crucial challenge that faced international community over the last century. International Water Law provides set of customary and conventional rules governing the aforementioned issue. In this regard, the history of water interactions in the Nile River basin indicates the existence of cooperation relations along with conflict ones since the fifties of the last century. Recently, the negative developments of events in the Nile basin have led to an escalation of disputes regarding the Hydropolitical interactions within its riparian states, namely reaching a critical level especially after the failure of negotiations of the Cooperative Framework Agreement in the Nile basin (Entebbe). The situation has got worse after Ethiopia embarked on the construction of the GERD without prior notification to downstream Egypt and Sudan. Ethiopia has exploited the fragile political situation of the Egyptian state after the January 2011 revolution. And then, Ethiopia unilaterally announced in February 2011 its project “Border Dam”, which later became the Renaissance Dam (GERD) according to technical specifications that threaten the Egyptian water security. It is clear that recent developments in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) file are witnessing an escalation of the conflict in hydropolitical interactions between the Egyptian and Ethiopian sides. These conflictive situations and developments raise questions regarding the legitimacy of dam construction on international watercourses according to international water law rules. Especially after the negotiation between the concerned parties have entered a vicious circle of failure and Mediation by both the United States and the World Bank was unsuccessful. In addition, this study aims also to analyze the hydropolitical interactions in the Nile Basin generally and in the light of the aforementioned current developments. The study is based on both hydropolitical and legal approaches, meaning the analysis and interpretation of international political phenomena; both conflictual and cooperative; in the light of the facts of Water issue.
... Finding viable avenues for resolving the conflict and obtaining mutually beneficial outcomes can be aided by researching trustbuilding techniques, incentive systems, and power dynamics(B. Y. Yihdego et al., 2020). This study aims to achieve four primary objectives. ...
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This study applied game theory to examine Ethiopia and Egypt's strategic interactions and interests in the GERD dispute. The study discovered that the conflict could be resolved by considering the various concerns and motivations of the parties involved. The study also investigated potential collaborative solutions and negotiation strategies for resolving the environmental conflict. The study's research objectives were to identify the key players in the GERD debate. Analyze the decision-making procedures used by Egypt and Ethiopia, and consider any possible outcomes from the conflict. Make appropriate alternatives for resolving disputes. The study found that the GERD controversy is a complicated problem with conflicting interests. While Egypt is concerned about the dam's effects on its water supply, Ethiopia is interested in using it to produce hydroelectric power. The study discovered that both nations' concerns must be considered to resolve the conflict. The study considered various cooperative dispute-resolution options as well. These remedies include water-sharing contracts, payment systems, and other cooperative actions. According to the study, these solutions could promote a fair and protracted conflict settlement. The study's conclusions help clarify the complexities of the GERD controversy and offer guidance to those involved in the debate as policymakers and stakeholders. The study offers helpful recommendations for fostering communication, encouraging collaboration, and arriving at a conclusion considering the worries and interests of all parties involved in the GERD dispute. KEYWORDS: Ethiopia-Egypt relations, Game theory, Environmental dispute, Transboundary water conflict
...  Transboundary water tensions, particularly regarding the Nile Basin (Yihdego et al., 2017).  Balancing economic development goals with environmental sustainability. ...
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Africa faces a critical water security challenge, with far-reaching implications for human health, economic development, and environmental sustainability. This article examines the continent's current state of water security, analyzing key challenges such as climate change impacts, rapid population growth, and significant infrastructure deficits. It reviews major policy frameworks and initiatives to address these challenges, including the African Water Vision 2025 and investments by the African Development Bank. The paper explores innovative approaches to enhance water security, presenting case studies from across the continent. It concludes by discussing the role of international cooperation and providing recommendations to strengthen water security policies. This comprehensive analysis aims to inform evidence-based policymaking and support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 6, ensuring water and sanitation for all by 2030.
... The sentiments of news articles concerning regional water events were primarily influenced by pivotal developments around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and associated diplomatic engagements. Initially, in 2011, Ethiopia announced the construction plan of the Renaissance Dam [84], which caused strong dissatisfaction among downstream countries, especially Egypt and Sudan, due to fears of reduced Nile water flow. This period marked the first notable decrease in cooperative sentiments in media coverage as tensions escalated over potential impacts on water availability. ...
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Media coverage of water events in transboundary river basins reflects the views of both riparian countries and beyond, and the conflict and cooperation dynamics could be biased due to the linguistic diversity. The aim of this study is to investigate whether any deviation exists in the depiction of water conflict and cooperation dynamics as reflected in the sentiments of French and English news articles, taking the Lancang–Mekong River basin and the Nile River basin as case studies. The results showed that news articles in English itself can reflect the trends of the cooperative or conflictive sentiments of the water events occurring within the basin, but French news is complementary in examining the attitudes and values of a few countries towards the shared river. The study would serve as an important reference for the perspective analysis of all riparian countries, as well as a basis for comprehending water conflict/cooperation dynamics in multiple languages.
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Global environmental changes, such as climate change and reclamation alterations, significantly influence hydrological processes, leading to hydrologic nonstationarity and challenges in managing water availability and distribution. This study introduces a conceptual underpinning for the rational development and sustainability of groundwater resources. As one of the areas intended for the development projects within the Egyptian national plan for the reclamation of one and a half million acres; hundreds of pumping wells were constructed in the Moghra area to fulfill the reclamation demand. This study investigates the long-term impacts of exploiting the drilled pumping wells under climate change. The approach is to monitor the groundwater levels and the salinity values in the Moghra aquifer with various operational strategies and present proposed sustainable development scenarios. The impact of global warming and climate change is estimated for a prediction period of 30 years by using satellite data, time series geographical analysis, and statistical modeling. Using MODFLOW and Solute Transport (MT3DMS) modules of Visual MODFLOW USGS 2005 software, a three-dimensional (3D) finite-difference model is created to simulate groundwater flow and salinity distribution in the Moghra aquifer with the input of forecast downscaling (2020–2050) of main climatic parameters (PPT, ET, and Temp). The optimal adaptation-integrated scenario to cope with long-term groundwater withdrawal and climate change impacts is achieved when the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources (MWRI) recommends that the maximum drawdown shouldn’t be more significant than 1.0 m/ year. In this scenario, 1,500 pumping wells are distributed with an equal space of 500 m, a pumping rate of 1,200 m³/day and input the forecast of the most significant climatic parameters after 30 years. The output results of this scenario revealed a drawdown level of 42 m and a groundwater salinity value of 16,000 mg/l. Climate change has an evident impact on groundwater quantity and quality, particularly in the unconfined coastal aquifer, which is vulnerable to saltwater intrusion and pollution of drinking water resources. The relationship between climate change and the hydrologic cycle is crucial for predicting future water availability and addressing water-related issues.
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Latest (Most Recent: March 2024 - 9 February 2025) Citations to Some of Hilmi S. Salem’s Publications (PhD, MSc, BSc – Prof. Dr.) Cited by academicians, research scientists, researchers, and postgraduate students at universities, research institutions, and companies in the following countries: Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, United States of America (USA), Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, China, Palestine, Turkey, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), India, Australia, Maldives, Mozambique, Philippines, Croatia, Oman, Malaysia, Ethiopia, Sudan, Iraq, Mexico, Nigeria, Brazil, Algeria, Egypt, Czech Republic, Jordan, Portugal, Norway, Ghana, United Kingdom (UK), Germany, Austria, Thailand, Indonesia, Italy, Botswana, South Africa, Canada, Russia A few Examples of Hilmi S. Salem’s Published Research in: Civil, Environmental, and Petroleum Engineering; Aquifer and Reservoir Characterization; Renewable (Solar and Wind Energies and Technologies); Industrial Air Pollution; Water Strategies and Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus; Agriculture and Irrigation; Sustainable Water Resources’ Management (Fresh Water and wastewater), Energy Efficiency; Women, Water, Agriculture, and Development, Particularly in Rural Areas; Drought, Pest Management, Biology, Biochemistry, and Biotechnology; Climate Change Impacts, and Mitigation and Adaptation Mechanisms; Carbon and Ecological Footprints; Mining; Cancer, Medical, and Health Research; Computer and Machine Learning; Conflicts and International Law; Sustainable Development; and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs)
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In Africa, regional electricity markets are being developed through the establishment of five power pools to promote power trading between countries in different regions. Experience from regional electricity markets around the world has shown that ineffective regional governance and flawed rules for regional trading and network cost allocation are the main obstacles to realising the benefits of well-designed regional markets. In addition to focusing on regional institutions and governance, this chapter provides new information on the historical development of power trading and its current organisation across the African continent. It also presents a comparative case study of the five African power pools. The chapter makes use of a general model of regional power trade organisation to facilitate the analysis of the institutional and regulatory models of SAPP, WAPP, CAPP, EAPP, and COMELEC. It also examines the political economy of regional cooperation to show how national interests and trade agendas have shaped the development. Finally, the chapter concludes by highlighting the institutional gaps in each region and emphasising the role of regulation in advancing power trade on the continent.
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FOR CITATIONS: Isaac, J., and Salem, H.S., 2007. Potential mechanisms for resolution of the water conflict between Palestinians and Israelis. Paper presented at the "International Conference on Sustainable Development and Management of Water Resources in Palestine", UNESCO, Amman, Jordan, 27–29 August 2007. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319876064_Potential_Mechanisms_for_Resolution_of_the_Water_Conflict_Between_Palestinians_and_Israelis ABSTRACT: Water, in particular, is a sensitive and critical issue for all parties involved in the Middle-East conflict. Thus, water has been a major issue that should catalyze the peace process or could inhibit it. Resolving the water conflict between the Palestinians and Israelis, as outlined in this study, is of paramount importance, which is due to the following reasons: 1) It will introduce, for the first time in the region's history, an integrated water management's scheme that, if adopted, will certainly be of great value for resolving the water conflict among all the parties involved in the conflict, including Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian people, representing the future State of Palestine. 2) For politicians, it would lessen the chances of conflict; for industrialists and agriculturalists, it would foster stable growth; and for citizens, it would result in guaranteed regular supplies of household water. In this study, the Palestinian-Israeli water conflict is addressed, and mechanisms for resolving it are proposed.
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An oil flow from the oil wells damaged during the 1991 Gulf War and the sea water used for extinguishing the resulting oil fire have contaminated the freshwater aquifers of Raudhatain and Umm Al-Aish water fields in north Kuwait. The numerical flow modelling of the aquifers was undertaken to create a calibrated and validated model that could be used in the future to explore a viable remediation strategy for the aquifers. The Environmental Visualization Software (EVS-pro) 3-D data presentation program was used to construct a conceptual model as a preliminary step. A 3-D numerical model was developed using the MODFLOW-SURFACT code that overcame the limitations of the classical MODFLOW. This model was able to combine both freshwater lenses in one model domain simulating the vadose zone together with the saturated zone. The model domain covered an area of 580 km2 encompassing the Al-Raudhatain and Umm Al-Aish basins. A steady-state model was developed first to study regional flow patterns in the aquifer. A transient model was developed subsequently to assess seasonal recharge on groundwater and investigate their effects on flow patterns. Analysis of the calibrated steady-state model output indicated that the model simulated the groundwater elevation and flow direction across the model domain to an acceptable level. The calibrated transient flow model is of significant importance to assess the vertical and lateral plume migration in the area and helps to come up with a plausible remediation strategy.
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In engineering projects such as tunnels, dams, foundations, and slope stability, the strength and elastic properties of the intact rock affect both the project design and the construction operation. Geological, geophysical and geotechnical study have been carried out for construction of multipurpose hydroelectric power plant at Genale–Dawa (GD-3) on the Genale River with the goal of generating 254 MW of hydroelectric power and providing irrigation water for downstream agriculture. The dam site is located on massive pegmatoidal granites with minimal foundation excavations and minimal grouting requirements. Weathering at the dam site is generally less than about 5 m. In general the Lugeon tests have shown that the rock mass at the dam site is generally tight below 6 m but this could extend to 10 m or possibly more in places. In the power house area weathering extends to about 15 m on the ridge and about 9 m in proximity to the river. This deeper weathering is probably due to the presence of schists within the granites as the foliated schists with significant mica content are more prone to weathering. Point load test, laboratory UCS tests and correlation of P-wave velocity with UCS is considered in assigning the reliable value of rock strength. Combined three input parameters RMR, Q system and RMi system were used for the assessment of the rock mass strength of tunnel and dam foundation. The tunnel will be excavated largely in the pegmatoidal granites with a Rock Mass Classification of “Very Good” to “Good” This is largely due to the massive, relatively un-jointed rock mass of high strength. There is a section of headrace tunnel, of uncertain length and at the surge shaft in proximity to the outlet portal, where significant proportions of the pegmatoidal granites contain remnants of feldspathic and biotite schists, the Rock Mass Classification of this unit is “Fair” to “Good”. The proposed hydropower project is situated in a geologically favorable environment with very suitable foundation and tunneling conditions. The study lists recommendations in relation to testing and rock classification procedures, which are indirectly related to the safety and quality of the hydropower infrastructure.
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In this study a vertical barrier forming the exclusion system in relation to partials extending into an impermeable stratum was analysed using a 3-D numerical modelling used to quantify the effect of a hydraulic barrier on flow which allows taking the anisotropy and heterogeneity of the site in a complex hydrogeological context and hydraulic barrier into account. A simulation in this study shows that for 0 % cut off the % reduction in flow is 0 and for 100 % cut off the % reduction in flow is 96, 94 and 92 % at 5, 10 and 15 days respectively due to leakage through the sheet piles, even with 100 % of the aquifer cutoff, the % of groundwater inflow impounded never reaches the 100 %. Also the change in trend where the % reduction in flow increases significantly with % cut off occurs at around 60 % cut off. That is, the reduction in flow through the aquifer only becomes significant after 60 % cut off by the sheet piles. The sensitivity analysis allows determining the factors of influence. A sensitivity analysis indicates the relationship appears relatively less sensitivity to varying the hydraulic conductivity, but very sensitive to the % cut-off. Therefore the effect of the sheet piles start to be significant after cut off exceeds 80 % and that the total profile length matters, i.e. the 60 % cut off must be applied to the whole width of the aquifer and not a portion of the aquifer, i.e. the minimum required to adequately reduce flow under the levee is 80 % cut off. From this study it can be derived that less water flows to a levee structure surrounded by sheet piles, depending on the depth of the sheet piles in proportion to the depth of the water bearing layer. The relationship is independent for the hydraulic conductivity but dependent on the ratio between the installation depth of the sheet piles beneath the Piezometric level and the depth of the bottom of the water bearing layer beneath the same Piezometric level. This study demonstrated the major influence of the technical design of the barrier on the simulated flow disturbances. The current approach can be applied elsewhere in related field for variety of application including formulating a resource management strategy, contamination containment and settlement risk. Overall, the capacity of decision makers to understand flow systems, how they function and respond to the placement of hydraulic barriers in the area they manage will form the basis for the operational management of the resources and infrastructure.