Impacto, vulnerabilidade e adaptação das cidades costeiras brasileiras às mudanças climáticas: Relatório Especial do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas

Technical Report (PDF Available) · June 2017with 1,559 Reads
DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36042.16329
Affiliation: CEMADEN, FBDS-UFRJ, IG, CPTEC INPE, UFSC
Abstract
Impacto, vulnerabilidade e adaptação das cidades costeiras brasileiras às mudanças climáticas: Relatório Especial do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas
  • Chapter
    The objective of this work is to assess the projections of climate change in the city of Santos. The assessment is based on the downscaling of two global climate model simulations using the Eta Regional Climate Model at 20-km and 5-km resolutions, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the period between 1961 and 2100. The higher horizontal resolution simulations reproduce in more detail the surface characteristics, such as the topography, vegetation cover, and coastline, and capture the extreme climate events. Evaluation of the model simulations of the present climate show reasonable agreement with observed climatology. Frequency distributions of precipitation and temperature values show that the 5-km run approaches the observed precipitation better than the 20-km resolution run. The assessment of climate change projections indicates that warming in the region reaches about 2 °C until the end of the twenty-first century, and that precipitation reduces in the entire region. Trends of climatic extreme indices show increase of hot days, warm nights, and in the length of consecutive dry days with the increase of the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Projections of the minimum surface pressure off the coast of Southeast Brazil show weakening tendency under RCP8.5 scenario.
  • Chapter
    This chapter presents a database of extreme events, including storm surges (SS) and coastal inundation/flooding (CI/F) that caused injuries and economic/environmental losses in cities from Baixada Santista Metropolitan Region between 1928 and 2016 (hemerographic method). A group of seven indicators describes the boundary conditions of each event: duration/evolution interval, lunar phase, meteorological tide height, precipitation, wind direction and intensity, significant wave height and direction, and ENSO phases. They were listed 115 SS (76.5% only in the current century) and 123 CI/F (47.2%). Around 76.5% of SS occurred between April and September, while 50.4% of CI/F between January and April. Spring tides influenced 52.2% of SS and 65.6% of CI/F. Accumulated rainfall volume during the duration interval was 227.1 mm in SS and 277.8 mm in CI/F. Maximum height of meteorological tides was 0.78 m for both types. Wind intensity reached 20.6 m/s in SS and 17 m/s in CI/F events, both with predominant SW-SSW directions. Significant waves reached 7 and 5.5 m respectively in SS and CI/F, being S-SSE directions predominant. ENSO phenomenon seems to control these extreme events, once 54.8% of SS and 46.3% of CI/F occurred during EN, and 40% of SS and 37.4% of CI/F during LN phases.
  • Article
    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that sea-level rise over in the next 100 years will be enough to flood large areas and cause several environmental impacts. The municipality of Mangaratiba (Macroregion of Costa Verde, on the coast of the state of Rio de Janeiro) follows the worldwide trend of population growth in the coastal zone, with large buildings and a very early local commerce in its surroundings. Their beaches are exposed to environmental impacts caused by the relative sea-level rise, which can be intensified mainly by the pressures of anthropic activities. A simulation of the relative sea-level rise in the city of Mangaratiba was carried out, emphasizing the flood areas from the marine transgression. Therefore, with the overlay of the flooded area with the land use map, it was possible to quantify the flood in each one of the classes. Afterwards, through a bibliographical survey and application of interaction and listings matrices, it was possible to evaluate the probable environmental impacts from the flood mentioned above. The result showed that an increase in the relative sea-level in the study area would have several consequences such as coastal erosion, flooding, damage to areas of urban occupation and to the dunes, which could directly affect the infrastructure, housing and local tourism.