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Safety management of waterway congestions under dynamic risk conditions- A case study of the Yangtze River
Abstract
With the continuous increase of traffic volume in recent years, inland waterway transportation suffers more and more from congestion problems, which form a major impediment to its development. Thus, it is of great significance for the stakeholders and decision makers to address these congestion issues properly. Fuzzy Techniques for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is widely used for solving Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems with ambiguity. When taking into account fuzzy TOPSIS, decisions are made in a static scenario with fixed weights assigned to the criteria. However, risk conditions usually vary in real-life cases, which will inevitably affect the preference ranking of the alternatives. To make flexible decisions according to the dynamics of congestion risks and to achieve a rational risk analysis for prioritising congestion risk control options (RCOs), the cost-benefit ratio (CBR) is used in this paper to reflect the change of risk conditions. The hybrid of CBR and fuzzy TOPSIS is illustrated by investigating the congestion risks of the Yangtze River. The ranking of RCOs varies depending on the scenarios with different congestion risk conditions. The research findings indicate that some RCOs (e.g. “Channel dredging and maintenance”, and “Prohibition of navigation”) are more cost effective in the situation of a high level of congestion risk, while the other RCOs (e.g. “Loading restriction”, and “Crew management and training”) are more beneficial in a relatively low congestion risk condition. The proposed methods and the evaluation results provide useful insights for effective safety management of the inland waterway congestions under dynamic risk conditions.
... The Three Gorges Dam (TGD), at the upper stream of the Yangtze River, has been an infrastructure bottleneck due to the insufficient navigation capacity of locks [1]- [4] (see Figure 1). According to Three Gorges' Navigation Authority, there are 300 ships, on average, waiting for passing locks daily, with a delay of at least 3 days. ...
... Occasionally, the TGD has to implement reverse-directional single lock operations for emergencies such as extreme weather conditions, The associate editor coordinating the review of this manuscript and approving it for publication was Keli Xiao . accidents, and equipment malfunctions [3], [4], which further aggravates congestion. Thus, the TGD is a major impediment to the future development of the Yangtse river as an inland transport corridor [4], [5]. ...
... accidents, and equipment malfunctions [3], [4], which further aggravates congestion. Thus, the TGD is a major impediment to the future development of the Yangtse river as an inland transport corridor [4], [5]. ...
Due to severe congestion before the Three Gorges Dam, roll-on/roll-off and container carriers are encouraged to adopt water-land transshipment mode. Owing to high transit and road costs, however, carriers are reluctant to adopt this mode. In this paper, we study the spatial-temporal relationship between the transshipment mode and the transshipment cost. Furthermore, we analyze the feasibility of subsidy strategies with regards to water-land transshipment transportation mode from the standpoint of the government. An evolutionary game theory model is used to identify the equilibrium points of transshipment and non-transshipment, and subsidy and non-subsidy strategies available to carriers and the government, respectively, under different scenarios. With a transshipment job for a major carrier as an example, freight prices offered by carriers and subsidies provided by the government under water-road and water-road-water modes are analyzed, with the aim of providing strategic input for both the government and the carriers.
... The Three Gorges Dam (TGD), at the upper stream of the Yangtze River, has been an infrastructure bottleneck due to the insufficient navigation capacity of locks [1]- [4] (see Figure 1). According to Three Gorges' Navigation Authority, there are 300 ships, on average, waiting for passing locks daily, with a delay of at least 3 days. ...
... Occasionally, the TGD has to implement reverse-directional single lock operations for emergencies such as extreme weather conditions, The associate editor coordinating the review of this manuscript and approving it for publication was Keli Xiao . accidents, and equipment malfunctions [3], [4], which further aggravates congestion. Thus, the TGD is a major impediment to the future development of the Yangtse river as an inland transport corridor [4], [5]. ...
... accidents, and equipment malfunctions [3], [4], which further aggravates congestion. Thus, the TGD is a major impediment to the future development of the Yangtse river as an inland transport corridor [4], [5]. ...
Due to severe congestion before the Three Gorges Dam, roll-on/roll-off and container carriers are encouraged to adopt water-land transshipment mode. Owing to high transit and road costs, however, carriers are reluctant to adopt this mode. In this paper, we study the spatial-temporal relationship between the transshipment mode and the transshipment cost. Furthermore, we analyze the feasibility of subsidy strategies with regards to water-land transshipment from the standpoint of the government. An evolutionary game theory model is used to identify the equilibrium points of transshipment and non-transshipment, as well as subsidy and non-subsidy strategies available to carriers and the government, respectively, under different scenarios. With a transshipment job for a major carrier as an example, freight prices offered by carriers and subsidies provided by the government under water-road and water-road-water modes are analyzed, with the aim of providing strategic input for both the government and the carriers.
... Several studies have documented the importance of MCDM techniques in addressing issues in the maritime industry [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. Risk management in seaports is one field where MCDM techniques have been used to generate information to improve decision-making. ...
... For example, Ref. [9] used TOPSIS-based methodology to provided insights into the essential failure modes regarding loading and unloading port operations. In another study, Ref. [10] used a TOPSIS framework to investigate the congestion risks based on a cost-benefit ratio. They provided vital information on managing inland waterway congestions safely under dynamic risk situations. ...
This present paper is an investigation of a framework for Safety-Critical Maritime Infrastructure (SCMI) evaluation. The framework contains three Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) tools, namely: fuzzy Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Weighted Aggregates Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS). It also contains five safety practice criteria: people's safety, property safety and monitoring capabilities, response to regular and irregular threats in a robust yet flexible manner, and breaches in physical security. The framework has four safety culture criteria: learning from experience and inter-element collaboration, lack of facility maintenance, and anticipating risk events and opportunities. Through the framework, an evaluation of the safety practices and safety culture of six Nigerian seaports is done. Then, data obtained from the ports in regard to their safety practices and culture were analysed in line with the framework identified and adopted. The results revealed that the safety of people's life is the most important safety practice and contributed about 47.90% to evaluate the SCMI. Results equally showed that the most significant safety culture is learning from experience, and accounted for approximately 53.20% in assessing the SCMI. Similarly, the TOPSIS method ranked Warri (A5) and Tin Can Island A1 as the best and worst safety practices performance, respectively. Results of analyses on the TOPSIS showed that Apapa port (A2) and Onne port (A6) had the best and worst performances correspondingly. WASPAS was also analysed. The results indicated that A6 performed the best safety practice performance, while A2 had the worst safety practice performance. Analysis of the WASPAS method was equally done. It showed that A1 had the worst safety culture performance, while A5 had the best safety culture performance. Therefore, the proposed framework could serve as a veritable tool for analysing SCMI by using safety practice and safety culture criteria.
... Zhen [18] investigated the concept of yard congestion quantitatively, developed a combination of probabilistic and physics-based models for truck interruptions, and proposed a mixedinteger programming model and a squeaky wheel optimization to minimize the total expected travel time of moving containers around the yard. Yan et al. [19] developed a series of practical and cost-effective risk control options (RCOs) to manage the inland waterway congestions. ...
... Container port congestions are mainly divided into three types: transport congestion [11,20]; service congestion (single service congestion [21] and multiservice congestion [22]; waiting congestion (inland waterway [19], berths [17,23], gates [10,14], yards [8, 16, 18,] and landside [9]). In fact, container port operations have extensive relations with external environments and other stakeholders. ...
Container throughput in Shanghai port has been continually increasing, with severe congestion impacts. The effectiveness and comprehensiveness of governance policies are increasingly important. This study proposes a conceptual framework and simulation of congestion governance measures and their effectiveness on congestion control in a data-driven case study for Shanghai port. The contributions herein serve as a starting point in the identification of four alternative congestion governance options (Increasing the transport infrastructure, Multimodal transport, Smart strategy, and Interconnection), and explore dynamic interactions among them. The design of this study is to firstly develop a container port congestion evaluation model to measure the governance effect; secondly to undertake the triangle analysis in the dynamic system balance: demand of hinterland transport, container port congestion, and container port congestion governance; thirdly to describe four congestion governance options with a detailed description of feedback loops generated by the system dynamics model; finally to propose a policy framework aiming at the advantages and disadvantages of these four options. This study function as stepping stones towards the revealing of the biggest challenge in effective mitigation of port congestion systems by being considered not just a hardware issue (option 1) but more importantly organizational issues (options 2~4). It should be a process of coordination and optimization among 4 options.
... These measures can be modelled, considering their cost and benefits. In view of this, TOPSIS can be employed in the optimization of ship structural safety because the method has been successfully applied by Karahalios (2017), Ren and Liang (2017), Yan, Wan, Zhang, and Yang (2017) and Wu, Zong, Yan, and Soares (2018). In the work by Karahalios (2017), TOPSIS model was employed in the development and selection of Ballast Water Treatment Systems (BWTS) approach onboard ships. ...
... The research identified hydrogen as the most important, followed by an LNG, and the last option is methanol. In the work by Yan et al. (2017), TOPSIS approach is used to facilitate prioritization of congestion risk control options (RCOs) of Yangtze River. Wu et al. (2018) utilized TOPSIS in making the final decision with the asymmetric information distribution among the involved parties in the decision-making of emergency responses of ship failure. ...
Majority of the world cargoes is transported through the sea, and failure of the ship structure is a major concern and thus needs to be avoided due to its catastrophic nature in terms of system loss. In view of this, ship structural safety is assessed regularly so as to prevent their failures and implement cost-effective improvement measures that ensure optimal operations, especially in the
realm of uncertainty. In this research, a methodology for safety assessment and optimization of ship structures using discrete fuzzy set theory as an artificial intelligence method and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution as a multi-criteria decision-making method is developed. The two algorithms are integrated in a logical manner to achieve ship structural safety optimization under uncertainty.
... Marine vessel rolling motion reduction can prevent cargo damage, improve crew efficiency, avoid collision and provide comfort for the passengers [1][2][3][4][5]. Marine vessel stabilizer can be defined as a device or system to reduce rolling of boats and ships in waves [6]. ...
... The use of marine vessel has been popular for purposes such as military, transportation [2,3], logistics, leisure, and surveillance [8][9][10]. However, excessive rolling motions of the marine vessel bring discomfort and safety issue to the passengers, crew, and equipments [7,11]. ...
... In China, the freight volume for inland waterways reached 4.791 billion tons in 2023, surpassing ocean freight (4.577 billion tons) and approaching railway freight (5.035 billion tons). This high freight volume has created a gap between waterway capacity and transportation demand, leading to increased delays in vessel traffic (Kang et al., 2022;Tan et al., 2015;Yan et al., 2017). To mitigate delays under congested conditions, it is essential to implement vessel traffic control and develop effective waterway traffic management strategies, all of which require a thorough understanding of the fundamental characteristics of vessel traffic flow in inland waterways. ...
To effectively manage vessel traffic and alleviate congestion on busy inland waterways, a comprehensive understanding of vessel traffic flow characteristics is crucial. However, limited data availability has resulted in minimal research on the traffic flow characteristics of inland waterway vessels. This study addresses this gap by conducting vessel-following experiments and fixed-point video monitoring in inland waterways, collecting multi-source data to analyze vessel traffic flow characteristics. First, the analysis of vessel speed distribution identifies the economic speed for vessels operating in these environments. Next, the relationship between microscopic vessel speed and gap distance is examined, with the logarithmic model emerging as the most accurate among various tested models. Additionally, the study explores the relationships among macroscopic speed, density, and flow rate, proposing a novel piecewise fundamental diagram model to describe these relationships. Lastly, the inland vessel traffic states are categorized using K-means clustering algorithm and applied to vessel navigation services. These findings provide valuable insights for enhancing inland waterway transportation and advancing the development of an integrated waterway transportation system.
... However, the use of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods in this field has intensified in recent years. Yan et al. (2017) investigated inland waterway congestions in the Yangtze River with the help of a hybrid cost-benefit ratio and the fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. Al Yami et al. (2017) evaluated risk control options in container terminals and tried to determine appropriate safety strategies with a hybrid fuzzy AHP (analytic hierarchy process)-TOPSIS method. ...
... However, the use of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods in this field has intensified in recent years. Yan et al. (2017) investigated inland waterway congestions in the Yangtze River with the help of a hybrid cost-benefit ratio and the fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. Al Yami et al. (2017) evaluated risk control options in container terminals and tried to determine appropriate safety strategies with a hybrid fuzzy AHP (analytic hierarchy process)-TOPSIS method. ...
... The sharply increasing demands for passing the TGD have resulted in much longer waiting times and more carbon emissions from the ships (Zhao et al., 2020). The waterway traffic congestion problem at the TGD is thus believed to be a major hindrance to green shipping on the Yangtze River (Yan et al., 2017), which has become increasingly focused on due to both economic and environmental concerns (Yuan et al., 2016;Guo et al., 2020). While ships wait for the passing orders at the anchorage, a large amount of diesel needs to be consumed for electricity generation to maintain the normal life of the crew and the operation of related equipment. ...
The traffic congestion problem has become a significant challenge for green shipping of inland waterway transport, resulting in long waiting times and high carbon emissions. Several studies have been conducted to optimize the use of the passing facilities and lockage efficiency, but the improvement of the ship appointment system has not been investigated. In this paper, we formulate new mathematical models for an improved appointment system to manage the ship arrival pattern. With a better matching between the ship arrivals and the lockage capacity, both average waiting time and carbon emissions can be reduced. To achieve this goal, a new nonlinear bi-objective optimization model is formulated to balance the waiting time and the scheduling adjustment. The bisection method with point-wise stationary fluid flow approximation (B-PSFFA) is used to estimate the ship arrivals and calculate the ship waiting time and the associated carbon emissions. The numerical results of a real-world case study at the Three Gorges Dam illustrate that optimizing the appointment quota can effectively adjust the ship arrivals to relieve the waterway transport congestion and reduce carbon emissions. In addition, the number of appointment segments divided within the planning horizon has an impact on the scheduling decisions.
... AHP is suitable for complex decisions involving decision criteria that are difficult to quantify. This is because AHP has several useful characteristics such as its ability to handle situations in which the unique subjective judgments of the individual decision-maker constitute an important part of the decision-making process [17]. Besides, it is easy to understand and be applied in the industry, especially for mathematically unsophisticated users. ...
This paper proposes a safety evaluation model of inland waterway ship navigation based on the fuzzy theory and evidential reasoning (ER) approach. The proposed model is a three-level hierarchical system consisting of 18 indicators that are identified and determined through literature review and expert surveys. By using fuzzy theory, the factors of the index level are converted into belief distributions, and the information of indicators within each level is merged by using the ER approach so that the evaluation of the ship's navigation safety can be realized. This model can deal with multi-source information and both qualitative and quantitative indicators in an integrated framework. Some case studies on the safety status of ships navigating in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during dry season are conducted to validate the feasibility and practicability of the proposed model. The results show that the risk levels obtained from the proposed model are consistent with the real-life situation to a large extent. The novel model proposed in this study provides a useful reference for maritime safety management and will help managers and decision-makers in the risk prevention and early warning of inland waterway transportation accidents.
... However, the evaluation of cruise terminals should take into account the overall dimensions and criteria in a holistic manner. Despite showing some attractiveness on the solutions to maritime problems such as the evaluation of the waterway congestions (Yan et al., 2017) and green port performance measurement (Wan et al., 2018), MCDM methods have yet been applied to evaluate cruise terminal performance systematically. It is probably because the high uncertainty in the demanded data. ...
Compared to cargo terminals, performance evaluation of cruise terminals sits in a backseat in the current port performance studies, particularly in the Northeast Asia. This paper aims to evaluate the performance of major cruise terminals in Asia, taking into account the important dimensions and criteria influencing cruise terminal development, and using primary data by experts' responses to a questionnaire survey. Complementary data are also acquired by field trips and interviews to find the hidden information that is not revealed from the set questions in the questionnaire survey. To tackle the multiplicity and uncertainty in the collected data, the hybrid of Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) and Consistent Fuzzy Preference Relation (CFPR) is employed to evaluate cruise terminal performance and highlight visual illustration of the test results. The findings provide useful insights for guiding cruise lines’ terminal selection and for aiding cruise terminals to benchmark their performance to effectively improve their service and maximize their overall performance.
... It has been studied for several decades and has been widely applied in different aspects of maritime transportation due to its advantages of being intuitive, easy to understand and implement. Yan et al. (2017) used the fuzzy-TOPSIS method to evaluate the waterway congestion in the Yangtze River under dynamic risk conditions. Zhang et al. (2018) used a TOPSIS method based on entropy weight to analyze 27 different gauges in different regions across the country ports for military transport capacity assessment. ...
Ports, as the main components of global maritime transportation, have attracted attention from both industry and academia in relation to their safety management. Identifying the important ports of a maritime shipping network is necessary and significant for the recovery of ports when encountering severe disasters, especially with limited emergency resources. This paper proposes a new method to evaluate the importance of ports by incorporating centrality measures of networks into the TOPSIS framework. Three types of centrality measures were used in an integrated manner to provide a more comprehensive evaluation of the port importance. Some economic factors such as the throughput of ports and GDP of the cities are also considered in combination with the entropy weight method to determine the weight of each criterion in the proposed model. Furthermore, a case study of the ports along the (MSR) shipping network is conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method in identifying essential ports.
... Tesfamariam and Sadiq assessed the decision-maker's risk attitude and related confidence in the choice of drilling fluid/sludge for offshore oil and gas operations using fuzzy-based AHP method with a hypothetical example [18]. Yan et al. applied the cost-benefit ratio and fuzzy TOPSIS methods to identify the congestion risks of the Yangtze River to make flexible decisions based on the dynamics of congestion risks and to make temporary risk analysis to prioritize congestion risk control options [19]. ...
Applying risk assessment approaches to improve quality in enterprises is of great importance especially for sectors that are labor-intensive and thus frequently encountered failures. One of the methods frequently used to take precautions against failures caused by high variability in this type of sector is failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA). In this study, a hybrid FMEA approach is proposed so as to take measures against failures in the textile sector where there are high-quality differences due to its structure and failures frequently occurred. Since the different combinations of risk parameters’ scores may produce the same risk degree based on the function of the FMEA’s basis, misleading results for the risk analysis in the practical risk management can be occurred. Moreover, the risk priority number (RPN) function has a limitation in the weight determining process, since it assigns the equal weight for each risk parameter in the classical FMEA. To overcome these shortcomings in the RPN calculation for the risks in the FMEA approach, a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach is applied under the framework of fuzzy logic. Through that, in this study, we aimed to prove an expert system based on the rules that specifically focusing on the risk sources of the woven fabric industry. To create such a rule-based system, inputs are generated using fuzzy AHP and modified fuzzy TOPSIS. A case study is carried out with the method proposed in a textile mill, and it is determined which risks arising from failures are higher. For the validation of the results, a comparative analysis is conducted. Moreover, for the robustness of the decisions, one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis with respect to different scenarios are applied. As a result of the analyses, it is shown that our proposed model can be used as an efficient proactive risk calculator for the managers or researchers to make useful inferences, judgments, and decisions of the production processes for eliminating the shortcomings of the traditional FMEA.
... The ports along the Yangtze River handled over 2.5 billion tons of cargo in 2017, an increase of more than 8.2% compared with the previous year, thus ranking first among the world's inland waterway ports (Ye et al. 2020). However, the imbalance between the demand for freight transportation and the construction of new waterways in the YREZ is becoming increasingly problematic, and waterway congestion jeopardizes the economic development of the region (Yan et al. 2017). ...
The waterway freight volume through the Three Gorges ship lock (TGL) has increased significantly since it started operation in 2003 and exceeded the designed capacity of 100 million tons in 2011, 19 years earlier than expected. This made the TGL a bottleneck for the Yangtze River waterway transport development. Based on the historical freight volumes and types through the TGL, a combination of qualitative and quantitative analyses are conducted here to identify the key factors affecting freight demand. A genetic algorithm and backpropagation (GA–BP) forecasting model (optimized backpropagation neural network model using a genetic algorithm) was developed to estimate freight demand at the TGL over the period 2020–2040. We predict that freight demand will continue to increase, reaching 260.2 million tons in the basic scenario by 2040 (or 224.7 million tons in the conservative scenario and 276.7 million tons in the optimistic scenario). However, the growth rate will gradually decline. The freight composition will tend to be more stable and homogeneous, with over 64% of the freight related to investment and construction. From the perspective of freight volume evolution, the necessity of the Three Gorges New Locks Project is justified and necessary.
... They obtained the fuzzy risk factor from the ship's static risk factor and dynamic risk factor by performing the Maritime Risk Assessment (MARISA) with a fuzzy logic approach. Yan et al. investigated the dynamic obstruction risks of the Yangtze River, in which inland waterway transport is carried out, through the CBR and F-TOPSIS hybrid study [34]. CBR (cost-benefit ratio) was applied to select the most cost-effective one in a dynamic risk environment; and the F-TOPSIS method to assess the dynamic risks of inland waterway obstructions. ...
Risk assessment activities in maritime transportation are mostly done through fixed risk assessment forms. However, during maritime operations, many different dynamic factors such as visibility, the time period during which the operation is carried out, weather, current speed, tidal status, traffic density, etc. can increase these risks. These dynamic risks are not included in the existing risk assessment forms.
In this study, the dynamic factors that increase the risks in ship operations were determined, and to what extent the variables in the operation quantitatively increased various risks was examined through the survey study conducted. Risk coefficients were collected through a survey study, as a data collection tool, conducted on seafarer who participated in ship operations. Consequently, the type of risk assessment to be performed in accordance with the dynamics was evaluated by adding dynamic risks to the possible static risks in cargo operations.
... They selected Guangzhou, Lianyungang, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, and Xi'an as the final imported grain distribution centres considering government policies and the Belt and Road routes that transport grain into China. Yan et al. (2017) analysed the inland waterway transportation congestion problem on the Yangtze River (China) using a hybrid cost-benefit ratio (CBR) and Fuzzy-TOPSIS to deal with different congestion risk conditions and ambiguity. They found out that channel dredging and maintenance; and prohibition of navigation are more cost-effective in high level congestion risk situation, while loading restriction; and crew management and training are more significant in low level congestion risk condition. ...
A railway system plays a significant role in countries with large territorial dimensions. The Brazilian rail cargo system (BRCS), however, is focused on solid bulk for export. This paper investigates the extreme performances of BRCS through a new hybrid model that combines TOPSIS with a genetic algorithm for estimating the weights in optimized scenarios. In a second stage, the significance of selected variables was assessed. The transport of any type of cargo, a centralized control of the operation, and sharing the railway track pushing competition, and the diversification of services are significant for high performance. Public strategies are discussed.
... Sugumaran et al. [15] used a clustering algorithm to evaluate risk [16], which had the advantages of fast processing speed and high intelligence. Other methods such as fuzzy set theory [17][18][19][20][21], comprehensive safety assessment (CSA) methods [22], accident tree analysis methods [23][24][25], neural networks [26,27], and Gray theory [28][29][30] are also applied to the field of water traffic safety. ...
Accidents occur frequently in traffic-intensive waters, which restrict the safe and rapid development of the shipping industry. Due to the suddenness, randomness, and uncertainty of accidents in traffic-intensive waters, the probability of the risk factors causing traffic accidents is usually high. Thus, properly analyzing those key risk factors is of great significance to improve the safety of shipping. Based on the analysis of influencing factors of ship navigational risks in traffic-intensive waters, this paper proposes a cloud model to excavate the factors affecting navigational risk, which could accurately screen out the key risk factors. Furthermore, the risk causal model of ship navigation in traffic-intensive waters is constructed by using the infectious disease dynamics method in order to model the key risk causal transmission process. Moreover, an empirical study of the Yangtze River estuary is conducted to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed models. The research results show that the cloud model is useful in screening the key risk factors, and the constructed causal model of ship navigational risks in traffic-intensive waters is able to provide accurate analysis of the transmission process of key risk factors, which can be used to reduce the navigational risk of ships in traffic-intensive waters. This research provides both theoretical basis and practical reference for regulators in the risk management and control of ships in traffic-intensive waters.
... Inland waterway is well known as an efficient and reliable transportation mode for economics, with the continuous expansion of trade volume, the traffic density has risen steadily, leading to maritime accident occurred frequently [11]. ...
The article presents an analysis of the changeability of traffic intensity of inland waterway vessels in the Vistula Delta. The concept of traffic intensity was defined, traffic flows and disturbances were identified in the studied area. The characteristics of the inland waterway traffic model are presented. The results of the analysis indicate the need to carry out modernization of inland waterways for the needs of inland waterway transport: introduction of a traffic control system, unification of the navigational marking system and strict correlation of renovation/modernization works of hydrotechnical structures with a navigation period.
... Inland waterways play a vital role in promoting economic development, due to their considerable capacity for the low-cost transport of goods. Especially in China, there are numerous rivers and lakes throughout the mainland, and they offer abundant water resources for the development of inland waterways (Paul et al. 2009;Yan et al. 2017b). However, navigation on these inland waterways has faced some troubles caused by the limited runoff and the low water levels (as described in ''Appendix 1'') during dry seasons (Linde et al. 2016). ...
Conventional methods to design the lowest navigable water level (LNWL) in inland waterways are usually based on stationary time series. However, these methods are not applicable when nonstationarity is encountered, and new methods should be developed for designing the LNWL under nonstationary conditions. Accordingly, this article proposes an approach to design the LNWL in nonstationary conditions, with a case study at the Yunjinghong station in the Lancang River basin in Southwest China. Both deterministic (trends, jumps and periodicities) and stochastic components in the hydrological time series are considered and distinguished, and the rank version of the von Neumann’s ratio (RVN) test is used to detect the stationarity of observed data and its residue after the deterministic components are removed. The stationary water level series under different environments are then generated by adding the corresponding deterministic component to the stationary stochastic component. The LNWL at the Yunjinghong station was estimated by this method using the synthetic duration curve. The results showed that the annual water level series at the Yunjinghong station presented a significant jump in 2004 with an average magnitude decline of − 0.63 m afterwards. Furthermore, the difference of the LNWL at certain guaranteed rate (90%, 95% and 98%) was nearly − 0.63 m between the current and past environments, while the estimated LNWL under the current environment had a difference of − 0.60 m depending on nonstationarity impacts. Overall, the results clearly confirmed the influence of hydrological nonstationarity on the estimation of LNWL, which should be carefully considered and evaluated for channel planning and design, as well as for navigation risk assessment.
... The statistics, when using the key words "evidential reasoning" and "risk" to search on web of science, shows that in 2010-2017 there are 78 journal papers (e.g. [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]), tackling risks in the energy, environmental, transport, offshore and logistics industries. A further in-depth analysis of these papers reveals that many of them focused on the theoretical modelling work, while the others dealing with ER's applications in risk tend to analyse small scale cases. ...
China’s fast economic growth contributes to the rapid development of its urbanization process, and also renders a series of industrial accidents, which often cause loss of life, damage to property and environment, thus requiring the associated risk analysis and safety control measures to be implemented in advance. However, incompleteness of historical failure data before the occurrence of accidents makes it difficult to use traditional risk analysis approaches such as probabilistic risk analysis in many cases. This paper aims to develop a new methodology capable of assessing regional industrial safety (RIS) in an uncertain environment. A hierarchical structure for modelling the risks influencing RIS is first constructed. The hybrid of evidential reasoning (ER) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then used to assess the risks in a complementary way, in which AHP is hired to evaluate the weight of each risk factor and ER is employed to synthesise the safety evaluations of the investigated region(s) against the risk factors from the bottom to the top level in the hierarchy. The successful application of the hybrid approach in a real case analysis of RIS in several major districts of Beijing (capital of China) demonstrates its feasibility as well as provides risk analysts and safety engineers with useful insights on effective solutions to comprehensive risk assessment of RIS in metropolitan cities. The contribution of this paper is made by the findings on the comparison of risk levels of RIS at different regions against various risk factors so that best practices from the good performer(s) can be used to improve the safety of the others.
This study examines the evolving landscape of the shipping industry in the context of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS), with a focus on the critical role of Maritime Education and Training (MET). As the sector undergoes rapid transformation, there is a pressing need for MET providers to adapt their curricula and training programs to meet emerging industry standards. Despite growing research interest in future skills and competencies for the MASS workforce, a comprehensive framework for assessing and ranking these skills remains lacking. To address this gap, we propose the application of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques, specifically fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to evaluate and prioritise proficiency requirements for MASS. The analysis, based on the responses of 174 experts, yields consistent and robust results, identifying ‘Operational Skills’, ‘Digital Skills’, and ‘Maritime Competency’ as the most crucial skills and competencies for MASS operations. A number of insights and recommendations are provided to guide MET institutions in updating their educational offerings to meet the demands of the evolving maritime industry.
This study aimed to analyze the research trends of inland waterways in the field of logistics by compiling previous studies that contain keywords related to inland waterways. To investigate the research trend, this study used a keyword network among the SNA methodology and deduced results using the concepts of centrality, including degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and eigenvector centrality. According to the results of the comprehensive analysis by each region based on the eigenvector centrality outcome, Europe had a core keyword of modal shift, which refers to the conversion to eco-friendly vehicles due to the exhaust problem of land carriage, as well as the continuously implemented government policy. The results of China showed that the country’s task to solve was on studies aimed at reducing traffic jams in inland waterways using AIS data. In the case of the US, the problems of ship delay remain unsolved owing to old locking facilities and equipment. This study provided academic implications that clarify the state-of-the-art in this research topic in three regions that have advanced inland waterways.
Ecological waterway construction and waterway health protection have become a trend and requirement of waterway development worldwide. How to assess the health status of a waterway is a fundamental concern for waterway sustainable development. This study established a comprehensive framework for health assessment of the waterway from Chongqing to Yibin in the upper reach of the Yangtze River, focusing on the coordinated development of river functions or services including navigation, flood discharge, sediment transport, water supply, self-purification, ecology, and recreation. This framework consists of a hierarchical indicator system, a weight determination method with analytic hierarchy process (AHP), an assessment model considering cask short board effect, and a sensitive analysis method. The waterway health in this river section in the periods 2016–2017 and 2018–2020 were assessed. The results showed that the river functions of navigation, flood discharge, water supply, ecology, and recreation had improved, while sediment transport had deteriorated from “Fair” to “Poor”, and self-purification remained at “Excellent” condition. The overall health of the waterway from Chongqing to Yibin has improved but remained in a “Fair” state during 2016–2020, at roughly the same healthy state as the other three waterways in the middle, middle-lower, and lower reaches. The results are conducive to understanding the health status of the whole Yangtze River waterway. They can serve as an important reference for ecological protection and development of high quality in the Yangtze River basin.
Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) is recognized as energy efficient, with lower levels of greenhouse gas emissions and large freight capacity when compared to other modes. Therefore, IWT helps to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals in 2030 Agenda (SDGs) that relate to sustainable transport. Still, transport sustainability assessments must include environmental, social and economic issues. This paper reviews recent research aiming to provide a conceptual definition of sustainable inland waterway transport that relates to the SDGs, and to identify gaps in literature for future research. To accomplish this task, a cluster analysis-based taxonomy was built through the intuitive approach, with peer-reviewed papers published between 2015 and 2020. The sample was classified into twelve clusters of IWT sustainability issues, which were related to SDGs and their targets. Results show increased scientific interest in eco-friendly practices. However, social issues remain underappreciated. We present a definition for sustainable IWT and the pathways for future research to achieve higher sustainability levels, as prescribed by the 2030 Agenda.
As an important transportation link between eastern and western economic zones of China, the Yangtze River waterway has been globally ranked first in relation to freight volume since 2010, and the density of ship traffic has also increased significantly. However, the inland navigation system has been increasingly threatened by traffic congestion, which is more serious in the controlled waterways of the upper Yangtze River. In this study, the distribution laws of ship traffic flow and service time in the controlled waterway were analyzed, indicating that the traffic flow obeys the Poisson distribution, and the service time obeys a negative exponential distribution. Thereafter, by simplifying the queuing processes and rules, the M/M/1 queuing service model was established to calculate ship queuing indicators in a controlled waterway. It was found that the ship queuing indicators varied greatly among different controlled waterways. Compared with downstream ships, upstream ships usually had longer queuing lengths and times, which were also more affected by the increasing number of ship arrivals and service times. Consequently, a dimensionless loss coefficient was proposed to quantify the influence of the controlled waterway on the navigation capacity. As the service time and number of ships increased, the loss coefficient also increased. The results of this study could provide references for understanding the ship queuing problem, and thereby the assessment of navigation capacity and anchorage constructions in a controlled waterway.
Port State Control (PSC) inspections have been implemented as an administrative measure to detect and detain substandard ships and thus to ensure maritime safety. Advanced risk models were developed to investigate the impact of factors influencing ship detention. Although showing much attractiveness, current studies still reveal a key challenge on how such analysis can improve the ship performance in PSC inspections and aid PSC detention risk control decision. By incorporating a data-driven Bayesian network (BN) into the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method, this paper proposes a new ship detention risk control methodology, in which the decision criteria are generated from the root risk variables, and the alternatives refer to the established strategies adopted by ship-owners in their practical ship detention risk control. Along with the new methodology, the main technical novelty of this paper lies in the quantitative measurement of the effectiveness of each strategy in terms of the reduction of detention rate in a dynamic manner. Its practical contributions are seen, from both ship owner and port authority perspectives, through the provisions of useful insights on dynamic evaluation of rational control strategies to reduce ship detention risk under various PSC inspection scenarios.
The current approach to the cargo stowage plans (CSP) of general cargo ships (GCS) is safety-driven, which means that any CSP satisfying minimum safety requirements can be used in practice. Such an approach taking into account no economic and environmental concerns cannot help sustain GCS growth in today’s competitive freight transportation market. This paper introduces a revised evidential reasoning (ER) approach to cope with the complex decision-making problem associated with the CSP of GCS. The complexity mainly results from the dynamic interdependency between the decision criteria and alternatives. The revised ER can determine the functions of the safety-related criteria in the decision making process by considering the extent to which each decision alternative meets the minimum safety requirements. The model is tested in multiple forms by an empirical study using a national GSC loading laboratory, and a real-life application by a shipping company in practice. The results reveals that the new model can aid general ship owners to make sustainable CSPs from a multiple-dimensional perspective and select an optimal CSP based on specific voyage scenarios.
This paper studies the risk assessment problem of the direct delivery business from local oil refineries in Sinopec Group. A total of 23 risk factors associated with four segments of the direct delivery business are first identified. Through explaining the respective characteristics, the connotation of each risk factor is analysed in depth. Next, on the basis of the severity and possibility of each risk factor, a multistage risk assessment method for normal cloud model rooted in the extended TOPSIS approach is developed, and then applied to a real-world case. From the investigation, the weaknesses of the present risk assessment process are addressed from various aspects, including the risk factors, segments, and alternatives. Moreover, considering the possible correlation among risk factors, the proposed method is further extended by using the approach of Choquet integral. Additional discussions and recommendations are provided for improving the risk management process of the direct delivery business from local oil refineries.
Recent years, with the rapid development of world economy, energy consumption is sharply increaseing and the environment is deteriorating. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), a clean renewable energy which can be used as ship fuel, is drawing attentions from more and more countries over the world. However, the conversion of the LNG-diesel dual fuel engine (DFE) in China as a new research is just in its infancy, therefore the operability and safety of the technology have to be further concerned. In view of this, taking the China inland's first transformed marine DFE GC6135ACz as an example, a risk assessment on the failures of DFE engine has been carried out by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method. Key factors for failures of DFE as well as the optimal risk control options (RCOs) have been obtained by expert survey data, so as to enhance the safety level of marine LNG-diesel DFEs.
Through the analysis and comparison of influence factors for the intersections traffic congestion status, it is determined that the status evaluation of urban road intersection traffic congestion is actually a complex and multi-objective decision problem. On this basis, it will be established that is the status evaluation index system of urban road intersections traffic congestion by application of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), then the traffic status of intersections will be evaluated and decided by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. Finally the algorithm is verified by the actual example about the urban road intersection traffic congestion; the results prove that the model is able to use the information given to correctly evaluate the actual traffic status of intersection and provide the references to make appropriate management measures for the traffic managers.
In this research, we show how modeling shippers’ responses to congested freight transportation on an important segment of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) inland navigation system strongly influences the measurement of expected economic benefits attributed to a range of congestion mitigation measures. We present a model of the UMR that integrates a shippers’ random utility model with a discrete event simulation model of the most congested 100-mile segment of the UMR system. The random utility model recognizes that waterway shippers may opt out of using the UMR in response to increased congestion and instead utilize alternative transport modes or destinations. Incorporating the dynamic response of shippers to changing operating conditions improves existing simulation models by explicitly accounting for the preferences and values of shippers, thereby providing a consistent estimate of the direct economic benefits associated with measures designed to reduce congestion and improve system performance. The major contributions of our research include demonstrating the importance of using models that capture shippers’ responses to congestion in freight transportation systems and illustrating a novel methodology for quantifying the direct economic benefits to users of measures to improve transportation on the UMR.
Three types of control alternatives are evaluated in this paper: tow dispatching control, speed control, and combined control. Lock control covers several heuristic methods for sequencing tows through waterway locks, including locks with two dissimilar chambers. Two lock control algorithms are compared with the usually used first come first served policy Of these, the shortest processing time first (SPF) gives priority to tows with lower processing time per barge, and chamber packing without tow breaking (PAC) combines integral unbroken tows into chambers up to chamber capacity. The resulting improvements in delays and capacity are evaluated by comparing these algorithms with the first come first served operation. Here, barge delay savings of up to 77.78% with SPF and up to 87.98% with PAC are shown in the results at a congested lock. Cost savings of up to 66.37% with SPF and up to 76.61% with PAC are projected at a congested lock. Real-time speed control explores the possible fuel cost savings of slowing down tows before they reach a queue at a waterway lock. It mainly substitutes slower motion to faster motion followed by idling. However, in the case studies presented here, speed control reduces average cost by values ranging from 6.288 /barge (4.48%) depending on congestion levels. The fuel cost savings range from 54.377 /tow (36.9%). Here, the combined lock and speed control algorithm further improves the average cost by values ranging from 5.54 /barge (29.34%).
Several different technical options are nowadays available to seismically upgrade an existing building. Selecting the best one with reference to a given structure generally represents a complex problem. In fact many and generally conflicting are also the points of view by w hich each alternative has to be judged. Decision support systems like the so called Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods may be very useful in order to make an as much as possible objective and rational choice. The paper investigates the applicabi lity and effectiveness of different MCDM methods for the focused decision problem. Some of the most widely adopted and consolidated methods are considered and compared one each other, first in terms of suitability for the particular decision task, then in terms of simplicity of use, reliability of the results, degree of human (subjective) intervention in the process and other significant criteria. The comparison is also quantitatively made with reference to a case-study consisting of an underdesigned RC structure.
Sustainable transportation systems are the need of modern times. There has been an unexpected growth in the number of transportation activities over years and the trend is expected to continue in the coming years. This has obviously associated environmental costs like air pollution, noise, etc. which is degrading the quality of life in modern cities. To cope us this crisis, municipal administrations are investing in sustainable transportation systems that are not only efficient, robust and economical but also friendly towards environment. The challenge before the transportation decision makers is how to evaluate and select such sustainable transportation systems. In this paper, we present a multicriteria decision making approach for selecting sustainability transportation systems under partial or incomplete information (uncertainty). The proposed approach comprises of three steps. In step 1, we identify the criteria for sustainability assessment of transportation. In step 2, experts provide linguistic ratings to the potential alternatives against the selected criteria. Fuzzy TOPSIS is used to generate aggregate scores for sustainability assessment and selection of best alternative. In step 3, sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the influence of criteria weights on the decision making process. A numerical illustration is provided to demonstrate the applicability of the approach.The strength of the proposed work is its practical applicability and the ability to generate good quality solutions under uncertainty.
When modelling specific decision situations the decision maker often feels overstrained when he is asked for precise numerical quotations concerning the objectives or the constraints, whereas qualitative statements are easily given. In the recent past the theory of fuzzy sets has proven to be very useful for representing this type of information. Though it is quite advanced formally, the practical determination of its core elements, i.e. membership functions and operators, has only been explored to a very limited extent. This paper presents results of empirical research which focused on the problem of modelling vagueness, i.e. determining membership functions of fuzzy sets which are considered as quantitative representations of vague concepts such as ‘young man’, ‘long sticks’, ‘high profits’, etc.
The long term impact posed by climate change risk remains unclear and is subject to diverse interpretations from different maritime stakeholders. The inter-dynamics between climate change and ports can also significantly diversify in different geographical regions. Consequently, risk and cost data used to support climate adaptation is of high uncertainty and in many occasions, real data is often unavailable and incomplete. This paper presents a risk and cost evaluation methodology that can be applied to the analysis of port climate change adaptation measures in situations where data uncertainty is high. Risk and cost criteria are used in a decision-making model for the selection of climate adaptation measures. Information produced using a fuzzy-Bayesian risk analysis approach is utilized to evaluate risk reduction outcomes from the use of adaptation measures in ports. An evidential reasoning approach is then employed to synthesize the risk reduction data as inputs to the decision-making model. The results can assist policymakers in developing efficient adaptation measures that take into account the reduction in the likelihood of risks, their possible consequences, their timeframe, and costs incurred.
This paper presents a novel hybrid MCDM approach based on concepts of fuzzy DEMATEL, ANP, and fuzzy TOPSIS to address air traffic congestion in the Philippines. The proposed approach enables the decision-makers under the Air Traffic Services (ATS) to elicit judgment on which ATFM action (i.e., ground holding, airborne holding, rerouting, and speed controlling) is most suitable to be applied in the occurrence of air traffic congestion. A case study at Mactan Cebu International Airport (MCIA) is conducted to illustrate the application of the proposed framework based on pairwise comparison among criteria and evaluation of ATFM actions with respect to the previously given set of criteria. The results revealed that the decision-makers are most concerned with the criterion on safety. Correspondingly, ground holding is perceived to be the most suitable ATFM action to be applied during air traffic congestion as its degree of safety once implemented is highest.
In this research, we show how modeling shippers' responses to congested freight transportation on an important segment of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) inland navigation system strongly influences the measurement of expected economic benefits attributed to a range of congestion mitigation measures. We present a model of the UMR that integrates a shippers' random utility model with a discrete event simulation model of the most congested 100-mile segment of the UMR system. The random utility model recognizes that waterway shippers may opt out of using the UMR in response to increased congestion and instead utilize alternative transport modes or destinations. Incorporating the dynamic response of shippers to changing operating conditions improves existing simulation models by explicitly accounting for the preferences and values of shippers, thereby providing a consistent estimate of the direct economic benefits associated with measures designed to reduce congestion and improve system performance. The major contributions of our research include demonstrating the importance of using models that capture shippers' responses to congestion in freight transportation systems and illustrating a novel methodology for quantifying the direct economic benefits to users of measures to improve transportation on the UMR.
Awareness of an efficient and sustainable vessel traffic management is a result of raised traffic congestion as well as of increased waiting times at locks and inland ports. The established vessel traffic management systems will have to be modified by 2025, to challenge the expected increase in the transport demand on navigable European inland waterways. Substantial benefits to traffic flow optimization are anticipated by the dissemination of an accurate information regarding the waterway and the management of the locks in the waterway network. Positive effects resulting from a harmonised implementation of traffic management systems optimize also the use of waterway infrastructure by means of reducing dredging activities and lock utilization. The outcomes of this paper will give a concise assessment of the benefits of an integrated traffic management implementation to private and public stakeholders of inland navigation.
In the first part of this paper, we describe the main features of real-world problems for which the outranking approach is appropriate and we present the concept of outranking relations. The second part is devoted to basic ideas and concepts used for building outranking relations. The definition of such outranking relations is given for the main ELECTRE methods in Part 3. The final part of the paper is devoted to some practical considerations.
Inland waterway transportation is often claimed to be reliable, congestion-free, economic and environmentally friendly. However, inland waterway transport accidents such as groundings cause congestions that can easily reduce the navigational capability of the waterways with confined channel dimensions particularly during a dry season. An accident data-based approach is presented in this article to assess the congestion risk of inland waterways using a case of the Yangtze River. Through a correlation analysis of historical failure data, the safety critical factors of congestion are first identified and used to establish a Bayesian network for the analysis and prediction of the congestion risk in the Yangtze River. A Congestion Risk Index is then developed by taking into account both probability and consequence of congestion risks in order to evaluate the impacts of various safety critical factors (i.e. Visibility, Gross Tonnage, etc.) on the congestion of the Yangtze River. The outcomes of this work can be used to effectively diagnose and predict the congestion risks of inland waterways in general and the Yangtze River in specific.
The hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set (HFLTS) has turned out to be a powerful and flexible technique in representing decision makers’ qualitative assessments in the processes of decision making. The aim of this paper is to develop a method to solve the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem within the context of hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set in which the criteria conflict with each other. To do so, the concepts of ideal solutions for a HFL-MCDM problem have been introduced. In addition, in order to represent the closeness of one solution to the ideal one, we propose a sort of hesitant fuzzy linguistic measures, such as the hesitant fuzzy linguistic group utility measure, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic individual regret measure, and the hesitant fuzzy linguistic compromise measure. Based on these measures, we develop a hesitant fuzzy linguistic VIKOR (HFL-VIKOR) method, which is motivated by the traditional VIKOR method. The general procedures for the HFL-VIKOR method are given. Some numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the advantages and practicality of our method. Finally, we make some discusses on the advantages of the HFL-VIKOR method and also the future work.
This paper investigates one of the outranking based methods, PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation), for multi-criteria decision making, and extends it into intuitionistic fuzzy circumstance. Our enhancement of the PROMETHEE with intuitionistic fuzzy set, named IF-PROMETHEE, takes not only intuitionistic fuzzy preferences, but also intuitionistic fuzzy weights into account. Two practical examples are carried out to illustrate the applicability and efficiency of our proposed method in solving multi-criteria decision making problems. The first example concerning the evaluation of alternative energy exploitation projects shows that IF-PROMETHEE can depict more comprehensive preference information than PROMETHEE and F-PROMETHEE. The second example further illustrates the application of IF-PROMETHEE.
Data from archived automatic identification systems in the Paducah, Kentucky, region were analyzed to produce reliable trip data for inland waterway vessels. Because of confidentiality concerns, few options for finding such trip data exist; this lack of data affects the quality of risk calculations. A combination of geographic information systems, relational databases, custom programming, and data visualization tools was applied to extract meaningful vessel traffic information and to detect events occurring within ports and waterways. The geographic configuration of the Paducah port area made the generation of trip data more difficult. However, this problem was overcome by the categorization of all trips into general river movements and the calculation of the total number of towboat trips transiting in the area through river movements or engagement in fleeting, docking, or lockage operations. The data from automatic identification systems were discovered to be of high quality and capable of supporting many analyses. These analyses included waterway and port congestion, hotspot identification, accident reconstruction (and near-miss investigation), and the impact of extreme weather on port and waterway traffic.
Since it was firstly introduced by Torra and Narukawa (The 18th IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems, Jeju Island, Korea, 2009, pp. 1378–1382), the hesitant fuzzy set has attracted more and more attention due to its powerfulness and efficiency in representing uncertainty and vagueness. This paper extends the classical VIKOR (vlsekriterijumska optimizacija i kompromisno resenje in serbian) method to accommodate hesitant fuzzy circumstances. Motivated by the hesitant normalized Manhattan distance, we develop the hesitant normalized Manhattan
—metric, the hesitant fuzzy group utility measure, the hesitant fuzzy individual regret measure, and the hesitant fuzzy compromise measure. Based on these new measures, we propose a hesitant fuzzy VIKOR method, and a practical example is provided to show that our method is very effective in solving multi-criteria decision making problems with hesitant preference information.
In terms of container handling, the port of Busan was ranked the third busiest port in the world in year 2002. As an advantage, the increased cargo volumes can provide higher profits, but, at the same time, can also cause port congestion. Busan has also suffered from severe port congestion recently. To accommodate the increased number of vessels calling at the port, the Korean government has already started the construction of new container terminals within the harbor. However, apart from simple studies, no specific evaluation of the port traffic has been performed until now. With this in mind, this paper aims to analyze the effects of ship traffic conditions in the year 2011 and to evaluate the potential for marine traffic congestion using the well established simulation language-the AWE-SIM simulation program. The findings reveal that the urgent tasks to prevent possible congestion are the elimination of anchorage M, the reallocation of terminal functions in number two pier and enlarging of the superstructure of the container terminals.
A general class of conectives, intersection and union, are presented for fuzzy sets. The properties of this class are studied in comparison to the ordinary intersection and union.
Waterway simulation models can be used to evaluate system performance and optimize investment and operation decisions, provided the effects of such decisions on demand are properly considered. Some simulation models have considered demand changes due to seasonal variations, economic growth, congestion effects on travel times, and user responses to service interruptions-but not all of these factors together. An elastic demand relationship embedded in a simulation model is used to estimate the effects of changing service times and lock closures during the simulation. Because traffic demand and benefits may be significantly affected by the simulated decisions, evaluation or optimization of the system merely on the basis of total costs is unreasonable. Estimation of the benefits to waterway users also is demonstrated during simulation runs while accounting for the users' responses to lock closures and other factors that affect travel times. Specifically, the present worth of net benefits for the entire analysis period can be computed and used as the objective function for optimization. This approach can account for infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, the effects of service quality and interruptions on user costs, and possible mode shifts in response to waterway service quality.
The 6380 km long Yangtze River is the longest in China and third longest in the world. With more than 3600 branches it provides a total of 65 000 km of waterways, over half of the country's inland navigation network. This paper describes China's 'golden waterway' and its huge national and regional economic benefits. It reports on the recent channel improvement projects on the trunk line, including the Three Gorges dam and major estuary works, which have significantly increased both reliability and capacity and resulted in a direct stimulus to economic growth. A further 4 pound billion of improvements are now planned.
Purpose
To present a multi‐attribute approach for the selection and ranking of the most suitable 3PL service provider.
Design/methodology/approach
The approach is based on the TOPSIS technique (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and the fuzzy set theory.
Findings
A quantitative methodology based on a structured framework, for the selection of the most appropriate 3PL service provider.
Research limitations/implications
Future research may attempt to compare the results of the methodology proposed with those of other Multi Attribute Group Decision Making methods. In particular, the selection tree could be developed in a multi‐tier hierarchy, trying to punctually address the relationships between the upper tier criteria and the lower level ones. With multi‐tier hierarchies, the performance of AHP could be compared with the one obtained with TOPSIS, not only with respect to “technical suitability” but also in terms of easiness to implement, shortcomings and general managerial viability.
Practical implications
From the application of the methodology to a real case, the approach proposed emerges as an appropriate tool, which makes it possible to easily and effectively rank alternatives. Conversely the most critical issue pointed out by the real case application is the preliminary “request of information” phase, which has to be given critical attention. The availability of a well structured body of knowledge about potential candidates emerged as the true discriminant for an effective analysis.
Originality/value
The originality of the paper is threefold: first, an original framework of criteria for the selection of the most suitable 3PL service provider is presented. Second, an original methodology based on a fuzzy TOPSIS approach is presented. Third, the practical implications and drawbacks are discussed by means of a real case application.
Costs of delays for shipping on the Mississippi River caused by lock congestion are important and adversely impact growth in shipments on that mode. This study analyses the competitive position of grain shipments and quantifies delay costs on the Mississippi River system. A spatial optimisation model of the world grain trade was developed. Results indicate that without expansion in lock capacity, delay costs in 2020 could increase to $1.08 per metric ton. Expansion results in reduced delay costs. Finally, expanding the locks would result in a reallocation of shipments amongst modes, reaches, and ports, notwithstanding minor adjustments in production.
A fuzzy number is a fuzzy subset of the real line whose highest membership values are clustered around a given real number called the mean value ; the membership function is monotonia on both sides of this mean value. In this paper, the usual algebraic operations on real numbers are extended to fuzzy numbers by the use of a fuzzification principle. The practical use of fuzzified operations is shown to be easy, requiring no more computation than when dealing with error intervals in classic tolerance analysis. The field of applications of this approach seems to be large, since it allows many known algorithms to be fitted to fuzzy data.
This paper studies a storage yard management problem in a transshipment hub where the loading and unloading activities are
both heavy and concentrated. In order to reduce the number of reshuffles, which helps to reduce the vessel turnaround time,
the port operator uses the consignment strategy to group export and transshipment containers according to their destination
vessel. To reduce the potential traffic congestion of prime movers, a high–low workload balancing protocol is used. A mixed
integer programming model is formulated to determine the storage locations of incoming containers, the number of incoming
containers and the smallest number of yard cranes to deploy in each shift. An iterative improvement method is developed to
solve the problem, in which a tabu search based heuristic algorithm is used to generate an initial yard template, and then
the generated yard template is improved by an improvement algorithm iteratively until an optimal or a satisfactory solution
is obtained. Experiment results show that the proposed method can generate excellent results within a reasonable time, even
for the extreme cases.
We consider a single-server queue subject to multiple types of operation-independent interruptions motivated by operations
and vessel queueing at entrances of waterways. A case in point is the Strait of Istanbul. We are using waiting-time arguments
and service completion time analysis to obtain the expected waiting time of a customer (vessel) in the aforementioned queue
with single-class of customers and k non-simultaneous and possibly simultaneous service interruptions. In the analysis, we have used arguments and assumptions
from the Strait of Istanbul that are also valid for narrow waterways at large.
Management of uncertainty is an intrinsically important issue in the design of expert systems because much of the information in the knowledge base of a typical expert system is imprecise, incomplete or not totally reliable.In the existing expert systems, uncertainty is dealt with through a combination of predicate logic and probability-based methods. A serious shortcoming of these methods is that they are not capable of coming to grips with the pervasive fuzziness of information in the knowledge base, and, as a result, are mostly ad hoc in nature. An alternative approach to the management of uncertainty which is suggested in this paper is based on the use of fuzzy logic, which is the logic underlying approximate or, equivalently, fuzzy reasoning. A feature of fuzzy logic which is of particular importance to the management of uncertainty in expert systems is that it provides a systematic framework for dealing with fuzzy quantifiers, e.g., most, many, few, not very many, almost all, infrequently, about 0.8, etc. In this way, fuzzy logic subsumes both predicate logic and probability theory, and makes it possible to deal with different types of uncertainty within a single conceptual framework.In fuzzy logic, the deduction of a conclusion from a set of premises is reduced, in general, to the solution of a nonlinear program through the application of projection and extension principles. This approach to deduction leads to various basic syllogisms which may be used as rules of combination of evidence in expert systems. Among syllogisms of this type which are discussed in this paper are the intersection/product syllogism, the generalized modus ponens, the consequent conjunction syllogism, and the major-premise reversibility rule.
The proposed TOPSIS for MODM algorithm is developed for solving multiple objective decision-making problems by considering two reference points of the positive ideal solution and the negative ideal solution simultaneously. The basic principle of compromise of TOPSIS for MODM is that the chosen solution should be as close to the positive ideal solution as possible and as far away from the negative ideal solution as possible. Thus, we can reduce a k-objective decision-making problem into an auxiliary bi-objective decision-making problem. That is: instead of k incommensurable and conflicting objective function, we consider two commensurable but conflicting objective functions (distance functions). Then, by using the max-min operator, we can obtain a compromise solution for the auxiliary bi-objective problem and the original k-objective problem. To illustrate the TOPSIS algorithm, a numerical nutrition problem is solved.
The aim of this study is to model shopping center site selection problem for a real world application in Istanbul which is the most populated city in Turkey. Since Turkish metropolitan cities have been attracting a large population from smaller cities and rural areas, it has caused a considerable increase in the population of the big cities of Turkey. The growth in population and the enormous shift of people from old to newly developed districts in Istanbul also create new spending demand areas. This is the most powerful motivation to generate new sites in the city for locating attractive shopping centers. A number of conflicting qualitative and quantitative criteria exist for evaluating alternative sites. Qualitative criteria are often accompanied by ambiguities and vagueness. This makes fuzzy logic a more natural approach to this kind of multi criteria decision making (MCDM) problems. The paper proposes a combined MCDM methodology. Fuzzy AHP (analytic hierarchy process) is utilized for assigning weights of the criteria for site selection and fuzzy TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) is used to determine the most suitable alternative using these criteria weights. The study was followed by the sensitivity analysis of the results.
In this note we look at a certain theoretically sound motivation behind the common use of triangular (and trapezoidal) membership functions. The studies are completed within a conceptual framework of fuzzy modelling whose structure comprises of input and output interfaces linked with a single transformation module aimed at processing linguistic information. It is shown that under some additional mild assumptions these triangular fuzzy sets comply with a request for a uniformly excited codebook in the case of the input interfaces and a satisfaction of a zero-error reconstruction criterion being formulated for the output interface.
A fuzzy set is a class of objects with a continuum of grades of membership. Such a set is characterized by a membership (characteristic) function which assigns to each object a grade of membership ranging between zero and one. The notions of inclusion, union, intersection, complement, relation, convexity, etc., are extended to such sets, and various properties of these notions in the context of fuzzy sets are established. In particular, a separation theorem for convex fuzzy sets is proved without requiring that the fuzzy sets be disjoint.
The multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods VIKOR and TOPSIS are based on an aggregating function representing “closeness to the ideal”, which originated in the compromise programming method. In VIKOR linear normalization and in TOPSIS vector normalization is used to eliminate the units of criterion functions. The VIKOR method of compromise ranking determines a compromise solution, providing a maximum “group utility” for the “majority” and a minimum of an individual regret for the “opponent”. The TOPSIS method determines a solution with the shortest distance to the ideal solution and the greatest distance from the negative-ideal solution, but it does not consider the relative importance of these distances. A comparative analysis of these two methods is illustrated with a numerical example, showing their similarity and some differences.
The aim of this paper is to extend the TOPSIS to the fuzzy environment. Owing to vague concepts frequently represented in decision data, the crisp value are inadequate to model real-life situations. In this paper, the rating of each alternative and the weight of each criterion are described by linguistic terms which can be expressed in triangular fuzzy numbers. Then, a vertex method is proposed to calculate the distance between two triangular fuzzy numbers. According to the concept of the TOPSIS, a closeness coefficient is defined to determine the ranking order of all alternatives by calculating the distances to both the fuzzy positive-ideal solution (FPIS) and fuzzy negative-ideal solution (FNIS) simultaneously. Finally, an example is shown to highlight the procedure of the proposed method at the end of this paper.
We describe the investigation of two old bridges over inland waterways in Germany under a possible ship impact. Both the numbers of ship impacts against bridges in Germany and the structural description of the bridges have been studied. The investigation is based on probabilistic calculations to take into consideration the uncertainty of a possible impact and the uncertainty of material parameters of the historical bridges. The results for the original bridges and additional strengthening measures are presented in terms of probability of failure and also in terms of risk.
Customer evaluation plays an important role as a part of the order acceptance process of suppliers in optimally allocating resources and prioritizing orders accordingly. In this paper, a new class of fuzzy methods for evaluating customers is applied. Firstly, our approach tackles the issue of uncertainty that is inherent in the problem of customer evaluation that involves qualitative criteria by employing the method proposed by Yong [Yong, D. (2006). Plant location selection based on fuzzy TOPSIS. International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 28(7–8), 839–844] in order to efficiently transform linguistic assessments of the weights of criteria and of the ratings of customers into crisp numbers. Secondly, the TOPSIS method is modified in order to integrate the behavioral pattern of the decision maker into its “principle of compromise”. In this context, a new model for the aggregating function of TOPSIS that is based on a fuzzy set representation of the closeness to the ideal and the negative ideal solution is applied. In particular, we use the class of intersection connectives proposed by Yager [Yager, R. R. (1980). On a general class of fuzzy connectives. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 4(3), 235–242] that enables a formal definition of the relation between the closeness to the ideal solution and the closeness to the negative ideal solution. Thus, a class of methods is formulated whose different instances correspond to different behavioral patterns of the decision makers, e.g. with preference to customers that make as much profit as possible but also avoid as much risk as possible or to customers that are performing well in at least one of the profit and risk criteria. A numerical example, illustrating the application of this class of methods to customer evaluation is given.
The VIKOR method was developed to solve multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problems with conflicting or non-commensurable criteria. This method assumes that compromising is acceptable for conflicting resolution. Although the VIKOR method is a popular method applied in multi-criteria analysis (MCA), it has some problems when solving MCDM problems. This study discussed existing problems in the traditional VIKOR method. The objective of this study was to develop a modified VIKOR method to avoid numerical difficulties in solving problems by the traditional VIKOR method. Several synthetic experiments were designed and assessed to verify the improvement of solution efficiency of the modified VIKOR method in MCA.
Vav1-Rac signaling plays a pivotal role in TCR/antigen and CD28 signals for T cell activation. However, pharmacological interference of this signaling has not been tested in the prevention of alloimmune-mediated allograft rejection. It has been demonstrated that 6-thio-GTP, a metabolite of azathioprine, specifically inhibits Vav1-Rac activity in T lymphocytes. Here we show the immunosuppressive efficacy of 6-thio-GTP in the prevention of cardiac allograft rejection.
T cell proliferations were measured by (3)H-thymidine uptake. The immunosuppressive activities of 6-thio-GTP were tested in the cardiac allograft model of C57BL/6 (H-2(b)) to Balb/c (H-2(d)) mice.
6-Thio-GTP inhibited TCR/alloantigen stimulated T cell proliferation and CD28-dependent T cell survival. Administration of 6-thio-GTP (0.5 mg/kg) prolonged graft survival to 13.8+/-2.39 days compared to 8.3+/-0.48 days in PBS controls (p<0.0001). Combination of 6-thio-GTP (0.5 mg/kg) with CsA (15 mg/kg) enhanced graft survival from 15.0+/-1.61 days in CsA treated recipients to 36.8+/-2.17 days in those received 20 days of combination therapy of CsA and 6-thio-GTP (p<0.0001), or to 42.7+/-16.63 days in the group treated with 20 days of CsA and 60 days of 6-thio-GTP (p<0.0001). Lymphocytes from 6-thio-GTP treated recipients with long-term surviving grafts (>60 days) displayed reduced proliferative response to alloantigen and higher frequencies of regulatory T cells (Treg).
Vav1-Rac inhibitor 6-thio-GTP prolongs allograft survival alone or in combination with CsA by suppression of alloreactive T cell activation. Our findings suggest the therapeutic potential of pharmacological interference of Vav1-Rac signaling for transplantation.
The last three decades have seen huge developments in international trading flows between Western Europe, North America and especially Asia. According to figures from the World Trade Organisation, global trade in goods will have grown by an average of 6.9% a year between 1997 and 2006. According to this, the combined transport volume in the European Union will probably triplicate until the year 2010 (+38%) and will have to accommodate a considerable part of the future growth of the total transport volume. Although sea ports of the Northern Range have been achieving huge extension projects, such as EUROMAX-terminal in Rotterdam, the container-terminal 4 in Bremerhaven or the Deurganck dock project in Antwerp, long waiting times for container barges in the ARA ports in the last years have confirmed that only extension projects will not solve the problem of seaport congestion. As a matter of fact, as the container transport volume will continue to grow, the links with the Hinterland will become more and more a critical factor for economic success of these seaports and the competitiveness of supply chains. Nevertheless the remaining bottlenecks on Hinterland routes, at terminals or along rail and barge connections, have demonstrated that the expansion of international trading requires new logistics strategies in continental Europe. The expected growth in transport and logistics will definitely place a great emphasis on the development of sea connections between main and secondary ports and most notably on Hinterland connections via barge and train. Based on the empirical evidence and market observations, this paper highlights the decisive role of terminals in the Hinterland and the changing structure of the terminal network in Western and Central & Eastern Europe (CEE). In this concern we will consider in a first step the main seaports of the Northern Range and their connected terminal network system in Western Europe, as well as the development on the Mediterranea-
n/Black Sea Range and the terminal network in Central/Eastern Europe. Regarding to the changing conditions of port and liner shipping markets, the conclusion of strategic partnerships between sea ports and inland waterways ports such as Duisburg, and the ARA-Ports or between Constanta and Vienna has to be seen as a long term process in order to reduce port congestion and increase scales. As a matter of fact, inland terminals are growing in importance as consolidation hubs for continental freight but also as providers of value added services for the seaports. In this regard we will consider examples such as Regensburg, Frankfurt am Main, Basel and Budapest. These examples show that intermodal terminals located on existing transport corridors by rail, road and inland navigation between the heart of the EU, the Mediterranean, East and Central Europe provide important new impulses for distribution strategies in an enlarged European Union.
Intelligent decision support system for inland river incident management (in Chinese)
- Cai
Study of dry inland navigation modelling and simulation (in Chinese)
- Chen
Navigational status analysis of the key congested segment of the Yangtze River (in Chinese)
- Guo
Multi-Criteria Decision Making: an overview of different selection problems and methods
- Gavade