Article

Understanding future mode choice intentions of transit riders as a function of past experiences with travel quality

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Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the causes for transit use cessation, focusing on the influence of users’ personal experiences, resulting levels of satisfaction, and subsequent behavioral intentions. It builds on a novel data set in which observed, objective measures of travel times are mapped to smartphone-based surveys where participants assess their travel experience. An integrated choice and latent variable model is developed to explain the influence of satisfaction with operations (travel times) and satisfaction with the travel environment (e.g., crowding) on behavioral intentions. Satisfaction is modeled as a latent variable, and the choice consists of participants’ stated desire and intention to continue using public transportation. The results show how delays, in particular in-vehicle delays but also transfer times and being left behind at stops, contribute to passengers’ intentions to cease transit use. Furthermore, a number of critical incidents, i.e., particularly memorable negative experiences, are found to have negative and significant effects on overall satisfaction and on willingness to continue using public transportation. The usefulness of the framework is demonstrated in a set of simulations in which the effect of three types of delays on passengers’ willingness to remain transit riders is modeled. This work highlights the value and potential of using new data collection methods to gain insights on complex behavioral processes, and it is intended to form the basis for new modeling tools to understand the causes of transit use cessation and the impact of various strategies and service quality improvements to reduce ridership turnover.

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... Pergeseran pemakaian moda transportasi, tergantung pada waktu perjalanan dan biaya perjalanan (Majeed and Batool 2016). Ketertundaan di dalam kendaraan -termasuk juga waktu transfer dan waktu di halte -, berkontribusi pada niat penumpang untuk menghentikan penggunaan angkutan umum (Carrel and Walker 2017). Selain itu, sejumlah insiden kritis pada angkutan umum, berupa pengalaman negatif yang berkesan khusus, signifikan memiliki efek negatif pada kemauan untuk terus menggunakan angkutan umum (Carrel and Walker 2017). ...
... Ketertundaan di dalam kendaraan -termasuk juga waktu transfer dan waktu di halte -, berkontribusi pada niat penumpang untuk menghentikan penggunaan angkutan umum (Carrel and Walker 2017). Selain itu, sejumlah insiden kritis pada angkutan umum, berupa pengalaman negatif yang berkesan khusus, signifikan memiliki efek negatif pada kemauan untuk terus menggunakan angkutan umum (Carrel and Walker 2017). ...
Conference Paper
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... Extensive literature covers methods to identify which attributes are more relevant (Allen et al., 2018b;de Oña and de Oña, 2015;Eboli and Mazzulla, 2007). Recent models include the effects of users' travel characteristics: travel times, transfers, critical incidents (Friman et al., 2001(Friman et al., , 1998Carrel and Walker, 2017;Allen et al., 2018a), and even travellers' moods (Gao et al., 2017). ...
Article
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... However, most existing frameworks employ static representations of individual behavior that do not capture preference dependencies over time for the same individual. In addition to the variables identified previously, an individual's preferences in the present are expected to be a function of their preferences in the past, as evidenced by findings across multiple contexts, including transportation (Carrel et al., 2015), finance (Kaustia and Knüpfer, 2008), health (Gum et al., 2006), tourism (Sönmez and Graefe, 1998), sustainable development (O'Hara and Stagl, 2002), etc. Notwithstanding this evidence, discrete choice frameworks that capture such temporal dependencies are rare in the literature. Part of the limitation is empirical: most studies use cross-sectional data, and longitudinal data of the kind that is needed is not always available. ...
Article
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... • Carrel et al. (2015), where a model framework is developed that links satisfaction reported in the entry survey, during the study and in the exit survey with future mode choice intentions. ...
Article
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In helping understand the dynamics of travel choice behavior and traveler satisfaction over time, multi-day panel data is invaluable (McFadden in Am Econ Rev 91(3): 351–378, 2001). The collection of such data has become increasingly feasible thanks to smartphones, which researchers can use to present surveys to travelers and to collect additional information through the phones’ location services and other sensors. This paper describes the design and implementation of the San Francisco Travel Quality Study, a multi-day research study conducted in autumn 2013 with 838 participants. The objective of the study was to investigate the link between transit service quality, the satisfaction and subjective well-being of transit riders, and travel choice behavior, with a particular interest in the influence of travelers’ choice history and personal experiences on future transit use. For that purpose, a rich panel data set was collected from multiple sources, including a number of mobile travel experience surveys capturing traveler satisfaction and emotions, two online surveys capturing demographics, attitudes and mode choice intentions, as well as high-resolution phone location data and transit vehicle location data. By fusing the phone location data with transit vehicle location data, individual-level transit travel diaries could be automatically created, and by fusing the location data with the survey responses, additional information about the context of the responses could be derived. While the behavioral and satisfaction-related findings of the study are detailed in other publications, this paper is intended to serve two purposes. First, it describes the study design, data collection effort and challenges faced in order to provide a learning opportunity for other researchers considering similar studies. Second, it discusses the key sociodemographic data and characteristics of the study population in order to provide a foundation and reference for further publications that make use of the data set described here. The authors would like to invite other researchers to collaborate with them on the evaluation of the data.
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This study presents an integrated model to shed light on the factors influencing individuals’ likelihood and frequency of usage of bus transit in Bengaluru, India, with a focus on the role of individuals’ subjective perceptions of service quality. Typically, subjective perceptions of transit service characteristics such as comfort, cleanliness, reliability, and safety are measured using Likert rating scale questions in travel surveys. A shortcoming with many such surveys is that the Likert rating scale questions do not include a “don’t know” response category for the respondents to express their unfamiliarity and lack of opinion on the transit service. For this reason, some respondents who are not familiar with and do not have an opinion about the transit system are likely to choose the neutral response to Likert scale questions. At the same time, travelers who are familiar with and/or informed about the transit system may also choose the neutral response to state their opinion neutrality. As a result, some travelers’ unfamiliarity with (and lack of opinion about) transit services may be confounded with the informed perceptions of those who are familiar with transit. This is because those who are unfamiliar with the transit system are less likely to use it and more likely to state neutral responses than those who are familiar with the system. Ignoring such influence of travelers’ unfamiliarity can potentially distort the ordinal scale of Likert variables, result in biased parameter estimates and distorted implications about the influence of perceptions on transit usage. To address this concern, this study uses a generalized heterogeneous data model (GHDM) that allows a joint econometric analysis of the influence of individuals’ perceptions of transit service quality on their likelihood of transit use and frequency of use and at the same time disentangle unfamiliarity from informed perceptions. The empirical results shed light on: (a) the role of individuals’ demographic variables and subjective perceptions on their use and frequency of use of the bus transit system in Bengaluru, (b) the importance of separating unfamiliarity from informed opinions on transit service quality, (c) the need to include an option for respondents to reveal their unfamiliarity in Likert rating scale survey questions on perceptions, and (d) demographic segment-specific strategies for attracting new riders and enhancing ridership of current users of the bus transit system in Bengaluru.
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Transit customer attrition is an important issue for transit agencies and a key component of transit customer loyalty. In order to investigate what drives changes in transit use, they must be measured, and a common form of doing so are single-wave surveys in which respondents report their likelihood of using the service in the future. This paper evaluates the accuracy of a set of such measures by contrasting them with observed behavior a year later. Furthermore, it evaluates the accuracy of a measure where respondents report on past changes in transit use. The measures considered here are subject to considerable errors, which makes their usefulness in loyalty surveys questionable. However, there is also variability in accuracy across measures, and those that stated a time frame and asked about concrete changes performed best. Predicted attrition was most often followed through on, whereas predictions of stable or increased levels of transit use had higher error rates. All measures appear to generally underestimate attrition, which can lead to an overestimation of loyalty. Using the example of one stated intention measure, two models are constructed to determine whether any of the discrepancies are systematic, i.e., associated with certain traveler characteristics. The results suggest that in several cases, there may indeed be such systematic effects. In particular, the frequency of previous transit use, vehicle ownership, transit pass ownership, existing strategies to avoid routes or times with service quality problems, and attitudes toward the car are identified as being potentially influential.
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Orientation: It has often been taken for granted that employees in general should arrive at work within a stipulated time. While the process of commuting from home to work and vice versa should ideally result in minimal effort, this seamless process of commute is supposedly expected not to result in anxiety or work-related stress. Individuals that rely on public transport for their daily commute to and for work are faced with physical and emotional challenges that are associated with the use of South African public transport. Enduring these challenges on a daily basis has a tendency to raise commuter levels of anxiety. The discomfort and cause of anxiety gradually trickle into the workplace infringing on work performance.Research purpose: This article examined whether the anxiety associated with public transport results in poor work performance.Motivation for the study: The rationale for conducting the study stemmed from the need to understand the implication of transport anxiety on the South African employee, as transport related concerns are often mentioned as a stressor in the South African workplace.Research approach/design and method: A qualitative content analysis was relied on, and 15 commuters were interviewed. Interviewee responses were grouped into themes and analysed for frequency of word usage.Main Findings: The study revealed that commuters experience worry and concern for their safety and job security when relying on public transport. Findings indicated that anxiety associated with using public transport does indeed result in poor work performance.Practical/managerial implications: In light of the findings of the study it is suggested that employers take cognisance of the implications of transport anxiety in their workplaces and to give careful consideration when addressing disciplinary matters pertaining to late coming, absenteeism and poor performance.Contribution/value-add: Re-evaluation of the South African public transport system and workplace policy is therefore recommended. Public transport has a negative impact on South African workers, of which the South African employer needs to be cognitive of when considering a sanction for poor performance.
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