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A VUCA ACTION FRAMEWORK FOR A VUCA ENVIRONMENT. LEADERSHIP CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS

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Abstract

The 1990 coinage describing the surrounding environment as volatile, uncertain, complex and agile (VUCA) is becoming a cliché in the absence of a more profound analysis. To try and uncover its causes would take a comprehensive study that covers multiple areas such as economy, sociology, psychology, history, etc. and that cannot be covered in just few pages. Nonetheless, the reality it describes signals a high need for intervention. Consequently, what this article proposes is an overview of the possible solutions that leaders may have at their disposal or they can build in order to counter the effects of the phenomena derived from such reality via vision, understanding, clarity and agility (VUCA). Thus, its assumption is that by depicting the overt aspects of the phenomena, possible solutions may emerge in the form of a general action plan. Hence, the potential fl aw of the ideas to be expressed: the general aspects need to be adapted and matched to specifi c environments, which hopefully becomes possible should a specifi c mindset be assumed via the aforementioned action framework.
A VUCA ACTION FRAMEWORK
FOR A VUCA ENVIRONMENT.
LEADERSHIP CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS
Aura CODREANU
Regional Department of Defense Resources Management Studies,
Brasov, Romania
The 1990 coinage describing the surrounding environment as volatile, uncertain,
complex and agile (VUCA) is becoming a cliché in the absence of a more profound
analysis. To try and uncover its causes would take a comprehensive study that covers
multiple areas such as economy, sociology, psychology, history, etc. and that cannot
be covered in just few pages. Nonetheless, the reality it describes signals a high
need for intervention. Consequently, what this article proposes is an overview of
the possible solutions that leaders may have at their disposal or they can build in
order to counter the effects of the phenomena derived from such reality via vision,
understanding, clarity and agility (VUCA). Thus, its assumption is that by depicting
the overt aspects of the phenomena, possible solutions may emerge in the form of a
general action plan. Hence, the potential aw of the ideas to be expressed: the general
aspects need to be adapted and matched to speci c environments, which hopefully
becomes possible should a speci c mindset be assumed via the aforementioned
action framework.
Key words: volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, vision, clarity, agility,
strategic leadership, environment, dissonance, entropy, disengagement.
1. FEATURES OF A VUCA
ENVIRONMENT
The VUCA acronym standing for
Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and
Ambiguous was coined in the military
after the Cold War to describe a new
emerging type of warfare. From this
perspective, the coinage was meant
to refer to:
“…a world order where the threats
are both diffuse and uncertain, where
con ict is inherent yet unpredictable,
and where our capability to defend
and promote our national interests
may be restricted by materiel and
personnel resource constraints. In
short, an environment marked by
volatility, uncertainty, complexity,
and ambiguity (VUCA).”[1]
Nowadays, the acronym
accurately re ects the consequences
of the high mobility of people and
goods triggered by state border
dissipation or recon guration at a
mental, technological and physical
level, as well as the evolving
technical interconnectivity.
Volatility captures sudden,
extreme and multi-layered
uctuations in economy, socio-
politics, geopolitics and indicates
the dif culty of identifying and
describing these changes in a pattern
like manner as it used to be the case in
a stable world where certainty about
the course of events was the salient
feature. Thus, past experience and
best practices no longer provide solid
indicators for identifying solutions
for the present, or for the future.
Given the incapacity to read the
present through the lenses of past, that
is “to sift, discern or decide” [2] it
becomes obvious that the predictability
of future is more than uncertain, which
“makes forecasting extremely dif cult
and decision making challenging”. [3]
Increased mobility of people
around the globe or simply the
burning of frontiers via intensive use
of technology, along with diversity
of mental patterns contributes to
an increased complexity of the
surrounding world and inherently
dif culty in mastering if not at
least understanding the current
intricacies underlying the external
and internal environment of states and
organizations. As a result, systems’
complexity leads to fuzzy depictions of
the “causes and the ‘who, what, where,
how, and why’ behind the things that
are happening [that] are unclear and
hard to ascertain” [3]. Additionally,
“the ease of accessibility to, and
prevalence of, big data has only
increased this level of complexity,
and will continue to do so at an ever-
quickening pace”[2].
The ambiguity of the environment
is the result of all the above features. It
is rendered by the inability to provide
“yes/no” solutions and, hence, by the
multifariously valid alternatives that
might prove true depending on how,
when and where a butter y aps
its wings. The “it depends” answer
becomes prevalent and it proves
cumbersome for whoever has been
accustomed to living in a world in
which certainty about the future in
terms of present decisions, stability
of environmental factors, simplicity
in terms of expectations and polarity
in the world, clarity of game rules
were the norm. Moreover, as one
author exquisitely summarized the
conundrum: “Our decisions are only
as good as the view of the future they
rest on”[15].
But how can anyone tell whether
the surrounding environment can be
described as VUCA or it is prone
to evolving by VUCA features? In
this respect, there are a number of
symptoms [2] by which to diagnose
and intervene: dissonance or disbelief
in what is visible and tangible and
hence loss of/threat to comfort
zones; entropy or disorganization,
loss of purpose and perspective,
incapacity to further pursue goals
and “impaired effectiveness”;
disengagement or retreat from what
is hard to understand, withdrawal
into a comfort zone/group. All of the
above can become manifest at macro
organizational level, but also at group
and individual level.
What makes the difference in
terms of the cure to be chosen is the
level at which action is triggered. In
this respect, we believe that taking a
two-way perspective to a 5 P model
(philosophy, policy, programs,
processes, and practices), that can
be applied for any organization, can
yield good results. What that means
is for current practices to exist or
be molded in a desirable direction,
as well as the presence of a clear
cut philosophy. On the other hand,
whatever changes occur at the level
of practices, if they are in consonance
with the stated philosophy, then they
must naturally ow bottom to top,
moving and transforming processes,
as well. In this respect, the chapters
to follow are to build on this idea
more or less overtly.
2. A VUCA ACTION
FRAMEWORK
The solutions to the challenges
raised by a highly volatile, uncertain,
complex and ambiguous world
are proposed by Bob Johansen [4]
who suggests a positive reading
of the VUCA acronym as Vision,
Understanding, Clarity and
Agility. In a similar vein, Peter
Hinssen proposes the VACINE [5]
acronym to point out the need of
organizations for Velocity, Agility,
Creativity, Innovation, Network, and
Experimentation. Nonetheless, this
article is to approach the rst view,
since that actually presents both the
prerequisites necessary to be in place
(i.e. vision, understanding, clarity),
as well as the tangible result (i.e.
agility). On the other hand, Hinssen
makes valid suggestions through the
acronym proposed, but in our opinion
they overlap to a certain extent or
need to be in place at the same time
to produce results (i.e. creativity,
innovation and experimentation).
One of the concepts though would be
worth investigating, namely that of
“network”. Nonetheless, approaching
it would require a paper on its own and
therefore, at the risk of presenting an
incomplete perspective, this article is
not to cover it.
Based on the presentation of each
of the concepts proposed by Johansen
and by resorting to specialized
literature in the eld we aim to
establish the theoretical grounds
for identifying an action framework
that any leader could rely on when
challenged to make decisions on short
notice, with little if no information
whatsoever and simply probing the
consequences with no direct and
immediate evidence on these.
Thus, when it comes to vision, one
needs to have one is not forecasting
future, but creating future through
action [6]. In this respect, it is worth
noting that, if not stated as such, than
as part of any organization’s mission
statement the vision may go unnoticed
for lack of managers’ ability to actually
translate it into “changed business
practices” [7] which means that it
should be linked to speci c behaviors,
structures, and practices”.
In this respect, to translate such a
vague word into a real life solution is
to look at it through the lenses of what
Charles Duhigg [16] calls “keystone
habits”, namely those routines at
individual, group or organization
level which, if identi ed correctly and
hence acted upon, can lead to ripple
like change. Thus, vision is about
identifying the key priorities that
matter most and which, if approached,
“start to shift, dislodge and remake
other patterns”. Nonetheless, the real
dif culty appears when it comes to
identifying what everyone agrees
as being important for running the
organization (even though they
may or may not explicitly state it as
such) while still clashing over the
means to make it important. Thus,
by identifying the key word that
sets the priorities and which is not
viewed as negotiable by either of the
stakeholders because it re ects their
best interests, one can actually claim
to have a vision. And that only incurs
identifying the root causes that may
impede upon its realization and the
means by which the latter can be
best addressed. Consequently, vision
becomes a matter of identifying that
behavior which everybody trusts as
essential for their own interests, and
such agreement can only lead to the
sense of community and communion
that is required for any organization
to have.
For that, understanding becomes
a key word and entails a number of
requirements on behalf of leaders,
such as [8]: openness; accountability;
setting boundaries through clear
expectations and objectives;
willingness to tackle tough issues;
listening and relational skills;
regular communication; mirroring
the behavior you want to see; giving
trust to others.
Clarity is the opposite of
simplicity and certainty [9]. It is
more about direction, rather than
about the end point, and it incurs
“great exibility about the detail” [9].
Thus, if clarity is about the power to
admit lack of knowledge in a eld
and, hence, willingness and patience
to learn and gain new information
through dialogue and conversation,
certainty is impatient with multiple
viewpoints and favors crystal clear
rules and norms even when common
sense and reality contradicts them.
Clarity is required nowadays
to deal with complexity, even
though, as some literature in the
eld emphasizes, it is not so much
complexity as “complicatedness”
which makes organizations stall:
“…while complexity brings
immense challenges, it also offers
a tremendous opportunity for
companies. Increasingly, the winners
in today’s business environment are
those companies that know how to
leverage complexity and exploit it
to create competitive advantage.
The real curse is not complexity so
much as “complicatedness,” by
which we mean the proliferation
of cumbersome organizational
mechanisms—structures, procedures,
rules, and roles—that companies
put in place in an effort to deal
with the mounting complexity of
modern business (see the sidebar
“The Complicatedness Trap”). It is
this internal complicatedness, with its
attendant bureaucracy, that destroys a
company’s ability to leverage complexity
for competitive advantage. Even worse,
this organizational complicatedness
destroys a company’s ability to get
anything done. However, although
complicatedness is a curse, it is not the
fundamental root cause of the problem;
it is … only a by-product of outdated,
ineffectual, and irrelevant management
thinking and practices.” [10]
In terms of how to achieve clarity
over complicatedness, Morrieux
and Tollman [10] suggest rules that
are related to understanding the root
causes of employee performance, as
well as several means to encourage
cooperation rather than competition.
Thus, as far as performance goes,
the authors suggest that in order to
properly react to a complex world
and avoid complicatedness, people
behavior and performance need to be
interpreted and intervened upon in
relation with organization behavior.
The latter is actually dictated by
the interplay among organization
structures, overall performance
measures and indicators, incentives,
systems and subsystems that shape
the goals, resources and constraints
that ultimately direct or restrict action
and decision making. Therefore,
understanding the context of employee
behavior from the aforementioned
perspective can bring clarity over
what works and what does not and
avoids making piecemeal decisions
like restructuring, transforming,
expanding, etc. to the detriment of
critical nodes based improvements.
Concerning the means by
which cooperation can be achieved,
Morrieux and Tollman encourage using
integrators as a role to be assumed by
anyone in a management position,
rather than resorting to or establishing
positions labeled as coordinators, cross
functional groups, etc. that only add
up to the level of complicatedness. To
assume such a role several prerequisites
are necessary:
the management position has
the power to generate value (in
this respect, the health check
questions by which to have the
position at all are: what would
happen if the position would
not exist?, how would team
members cooperate?), as well
as the interest to do so.
the rules imposed on the
management position selected
to act as an integrator are few
and simple so that whoever lls
it can encourage people use their
autonomy and judgment, rather
than becoming disengaged
as a result of performing
activities without real value to
the organization, or stumbling
against cumbersome decision
making silos.
the person acting as an
integrator is given the freedom
to set goals, success criteria,
evaluate and reward result based
performance and not behavior
based performance, rather than
being imposed all of the above.
Nonetheless, one of the
most important highlights of the
aforementioned authors is the
following: “Beyond a certain
threshold, clarity only encourages
mechanistic compliance and
“checking the box” behaviors, as
opposed to the engagement and
initiative to make things work.”
In conclusion, for clarity to
emerge, people accountability,
process accountability, discipline and
integrity should be key ingredients.
In other words, “Accountability plus
discipline equals integrity and results
in clarity”. [12]
Agility is related to being
networked and exible, lightweight,
and replicable” [13]. When it comes
to organizations, agility is about
withstanding dif culties by changing
in a exible and swift manner [5]. In
this respect, Patrick Hollingworth
[2] uses two important metaphors to
depict the differences between linear
based, traditional organizations
anchored into long term planning
and agile organizations, namely the
expedition style climbing and alpine
style climbing:
“Expedition style is all about
identifying an outcome, and then
doing whatever it takes to ensure it
is won. It has a ‘summit at all costs'
mentality. Once the goal has been
attained, once the climbers have
returned to base camp, they can
go home – the game has been won.
Expedition style is extrinsically
motivated, focusing only on the goal,
leading to problems with goalodicy
and increased exposure to the
fallibilities of poor leadership.
Alpine style, on the other hand,
is intrinsically motivated, focusing
on the task at hand. The reward
is learning from the journey as a
whole, rather than just the moment
of attaining the goal.”
If agility is to be approached
from a leadership perspective [14],
it refers to two types of ability: one
focused on results, and the other on
people.
Thus, according to Mulcahy and
Meister, an agile leader focused on
results is:
transparent, namely able to
share information and take
immediate and adequate action
upon positive or negative
feedback;
accountable in terms of:
allowing people and himself/
herself to learn from mistakes
and thus take and not shun
responsibility, and clarifying
behaviors expected for
established goals;
intrapreneurial, namely keen
on identifying opportunities
and encouraging others to act
imaginatively and courageously;
focused on the future by
encouraging innovation,
experimentation and giving credit
whenever the case may be.
When it comes to working with
people, the landmarks of leadership
agility are related to the capacity to:
resort to team work by
identifying the right team leaders
behaviors and encouraging them,
as well as allowing for team work
to become part of the functions
that are characteristic of a human
resource management system;
• promote inclusiveness by
cherishing and encouraging
both the diversity of employees’
social and professional
backgrounds, as well as the
diversity of opinions via
formal events like “community
and civic diversity projects and
cross-cultural organizational
initiatives from community
days to hackathons”;
encourage learning not
only from formal dedicated
programs, but especially from
non-formal media, as well
sharing and dissemination of
information.
The barriers to agility raised
within complex (and not necessarily
complicated) organizations that are
designed to react as part of a stable
environment, are [11]: hierarchical
structures, well established routines,
“conventional strategy making
process” that is not only about a time
frame (3-5 years for strategic planning)
within which events evolve at a much
higher pace than the development of
strategies, but also a given leadership
“mindset” acquired as a result of people
not lling a position long enough
which does not allow them to become
proactive, complacency, adversity to
taking risks, and paralysis by analysis.
In this respect, the signals that allow
detecting the existence of such
stumbling blocks are: “ ‘silo’ mentality,
con icting departmental priorities
and goals, slow response times,
processes becoming disconnected
from the customer or from each other,
duplication of effort, lengthy decision
making, political behaviour and lack of
accountability” [11].
3. CONCLUSIONS
All of the above considered, it
becomes obvious that the VUCA
perspective on tackling a VUCA
environment is but a reemphasis of
ideas that already underpin traditional
approaches to management. Thus, in
our opinion, the action framework
that can be proposed under such
circumstances needs to be simply a
reminder of what most organization
employees are empirically aware
of and yet, forget to put in practice,
when reaching leadership positions.
In this respect, one possible high
level approach, which in our opinion,
does not necessarily provide a tangible
solution to leadership in a VUCA
environment is that proposed by
Harry R. Yarger [17]: “The role of the
strategist is to exercise in uence over
the volatility, manage the uncertainty,
simplify the complexity, and resolve
the ambiguity, all in terms favorable
to the interests of the state and in
compliance with policy guidance.”
Nonetheless, two ideas are worth
remembering from the above quote.
First, awareness of the best interest of
a higher authority, and we could add,
more often than not, to the detriment
of the best interests of individuals
or groups, is essential. Second, a
compliant behavior is mandatory.
But here, the challenge that leaders
and not strategists need to tackle
concerns the compliance framework
and the extent to which that impedes
upon the very idea of acquiring an
agile state of mind and action.
Consequently, the principles that are
worth underlining are presented below.
Principle 1: Trust your instincts
to make decisions, as long as you
are a professional and hence your
“guesses” are educated ones. It is
only thus that setting and following a
vision from a pattern based behavior
perspective becomes possible.
Principle 2: Assume
accountability for your actions and
thus empower other to do the very
same. In other words, to be a leader
in a VUCA environment is simply
setting an example and requiring
the others to follow. But to do that
and ensure the right decisions are
made, accountability should become
the keystone for attitudes and their
related behavior.
Principle 3. Talk the talk and
walk the walk. Leadership is not
only about preaching, but also about
setting an example. Nonetheless,
one is not possible without the other,
which means that for people to follow,
they need rst to understand. In other
words, taking people’s understanding
for granted and asking them to
replicate the leader’s behavior is
nothing but a huge leadership mistake.
REFERENCES
[1]Roderick R. Magee II, ed., Strategic
Leadership Primer, Carlisle Barracks,
PA: U.S. Army War College, 1998, p.
1 quoted in Harry R. Yarger, Strategic
Theory for the 21st Century: The Little
Book On Big Strategy (Carlisle Barracks,
PA: U.S. Army War College, Strategic
Studies Institute, 2006), available at 17.
http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA444141
pp.17-18, last retrieved August 2016.
[2] Patrick Hollingworth (2016) The Light
and Fast Organisation: A new way of dealing
with uncertainty, John Wiley & Sons.
[3] (Sullivan, 2012a) in Michael
Brazzel, Brenda B. Jones (2014)
The NTL Handbook of Organization
Development and Change: Principles,
Practices, and Perspectives, 2nd Edition,
Pfeiffer, ISBN: 9781118485811.
[4] Quoted in Michael Brazzel, Brenda
B. Jones (2014) The NTL Handbook
of Organization Development and
Change: Principles, Practices, and
Perspectives, 2nd Edition, Pfeiffer,
ISBN: 9781118485811.
[5] Peter Hinssen (2015) The Network
Always Wins, McGraw-Hill.
[6] Bob Johansen (2007) Get There
Early, Berrett-Koehler Publishers,
ISBN: 9781576754405.
[7] Paul Gibbons (2015) The Science of
Successful Organizational Change: How
Leaders Set Strategy, Change Behavior,
and Create an Agile Culture, Pearson
Business, ISBN: 9780133994834.
[8] Viki Holton, Angela Jowitt, Pam
Jones (2016) How to Coach Your Team,
FT Publishing International.
[9] Robert Johansen (2012) Leaders
Make the Future, 2nd Edition,
Berrett-Koehler Publishers, ISBN:
9781609944889.
[10] YVES MORIEUX, PETER
TOLLMAN (2014) Six Simple Rules.
How to Manage Complexity without
Getting Complicated, Harvard Business
Review Press,Boston, Massachusetts.
[11] Linda Holbeche (2015) The
Agile Organization, Kogan Page, ISBN:
9780749471323.
[12] James T. Brown (2014) The
Handbook of Program Management.
How to facilitate project success with
optimal program management, second
edition, McGraw-Hill.
[13] Bob Johansen (2007) Get There
Early, Berrett-Koehler Publishers,
ISBN: 9781576754405.
[14] Kevin Mulcahy, Jeanne
Meister (2016) The Future Workplace
Experience: 10 Rules For Mastering
Disruption in Recruiting and Engaging
Employees, McGraw-Hill.
[15] Gordon, Adam (2008) Future
Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make
Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty,
and Pro t from Change, AMACOM.
[16] Duhigg, Charles (2012) The
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do and how to change. Random House
Books, London, pp. 100-106.
[17] Harry R. Yarger, Strategic Theory
for the 21st Century: The Little Book On
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Army War College, Strategic Studies
Institute, 2006), available at 17. http://
handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA444141
p.18, last retrieved August 2016.
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... al., 2019. Η πολυπλοκότητα του εν λόγω περιβάλλοντος, ορίζεται βάσει του ότι δεν είναι πάντα αντιληπτά και ξεκάθαρα τα αίτια αλλά και τα «ποιος», «τι», «που», «πότε» και «γιατί» των καταστάσεων (Codreanu, 2016), ενώ, τέλος, η ασάφεια ενυπάρχει, ως αποτέλεσμα των προαναφερθεισών παραμέτρων, καθώς δεν υπάρχουν σαφείς και ξεκάθαρες απαντήσεις (Codreanu, 2016). ...
... al., 2019. Η πολυπλοκότητα του εν λόγω περιβάλλοντος, ορίζεται βάσει του ότι δεν είναι πάντα αντιληπτά και ξεκάθαρα τα αίτια αλλά και τα «ποιος», «τι», «που», «πότε» και «γιατί» των καταστάσεων (Codreanu, 2016), ενώ, τέλος, η ασάφεια ενυπάρχει, ως αποτέλεσμα των προαναφερθεισών παραμέτρων, καθώς δεν υπάρχουν σαφείς και ξεκάθαρες απαντήσεις (Codreanu, 2016). ...
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Πριν πέντε περίπου χρόνια, η παγκόσμια κοινότητα ήρθε αντιμέτωπη με την άγνωστη κατάσταση του COVID-19, η οποία έφερε στοιχεία ενός ασταθούς, αβέβαιου, περίπλοκου και διφορούμενου περιβάλλοντος (VUCA). Τα σχολεία όλων των βαθμίδων, και δη η ηγεσία αυτών, αντιμετώπισαν πρωτόγνωρες και απρόβλεπτες προκλήσεις, σε ένα πλαίσιο που έφερε συνεχείς εκπαιδευτικές και ψυχοκοινωνικές αλλαγές. Η παρούσα μελέτη, πλαισιώθηκε εννοιολογικά από το μοντέλο ηγεσίας της VUCA όπως αποδόθηκε από τους Barber (1992) και Bennis & Nanus (2003). Σκοπός της ποιοτικής πιλοτικής έρευνας, ήταν να διερευνήσει τις επιρροές που έφερε η πανδημία στον ρόλο των προϊσταμένων νηπιαγωγών κατά τα σχολικά έτη 2020-2021 και 2021-2022, υπό το πρίσμα της VUCA ηγεσίας. Παράλληλα, ανέδειξε τις εμπειρίες και αντιλήψεις αυτών. Για την ποιοτική ανάλυση, συλλέχθηκαν δεδομένα από 12 προϊσταμένους/ αμένες νηπιαγωγείου, μέσω ημιδομημένης συνένευξης. Το παραγόμενο ποιοτικό υλικό έδειξε ότι οι προϊστάμενοι/αμένες νηπιαγωγείου αντιλαμβάνονταν τον ρόλο τους κατά τη διάρκεια της πανδημίας ως πολύπλοκο, ασταθή, ασαφή, και αβέβαιο. Παρόλα αυτά, ανέδειξαν ικανότητες διατήρησης και ενίσχυσης των σχολικών αξιών, της συνεργασίας και της επικοινωνίας μεταξύ όλων των μελών του σχολείου ευθύνης τους. Επιπροσθέτως, ανέδειξαν ενσυναίσθηση και αμεσότητα, ανεξάρτητα από το φύλο τους. Τα ευρήματα συζητούνται για την αξιοποίησή τους στο πλαίσιο εκπαιδευτικών δράσεων σε περιόδους κρίσης και στην ανάπτυξη του επαγγελματικού ρόλου των σχολικών ηγετών.
... Among them, the studies of Bauman (2000Bauman ( , 2004 on liquid modernity, referring to the uncertainty, fluidity, vagueness and accelerated changes that characterize contemporary society. Other authors pointed out that the world lives in an environment characterized by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity, which gave rise to the acronym VUCA (Codreanu, 2016;Calvosa & Franco, 2022;Abukalusa & Oosthuizen, 2023). ...
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The World has been subjected to successive and rapid changes that modified its order and given rise to a constant state of certainty of uncertainties, as a fluid state of accelerated change and vagueness in the global scenario. For some authors we are living in an environment of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA), as for others in a Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear and Incomprehensible (BANI) scenario that affects organizations, with serious implications for their leadership and management. In the case of countries' military organizations, this affects the operations’ design, the type of equipment used and fundamentally their training, from which we highlight leadership. So, how is military leadership characterized in a VUCA world and BANI scenario? According to this research question we carried out a systematic literature review with a qualitative approach doing an update of a previous similar study carried out by the authors, looking for new publications that could enrich the comprehension of the topic. Thus, studies were searched in different databases, according to the selected criteria. Guided by the review question we adopt the PRISMA protocol for screening process divided into three phases: identification, screening and inclusion of studies. So, eleven studies were added . Data collected point out that as traditional leadership models are unable to faithfully reflect the modelling of new challenges and realities and military leadership in a VUCA world and BANI scenario is characterized by a complex combination of competencies in a personal, relational and organizational level. Among them the capacity to think out of the box, to be creative, innovative, intuitive, resilient, flexible and adaptative, based on a state of constant awareness and mindfulness to see the global situation and make the best decisions. No other study was found addressing the same research question. So, it seems to be the first study to systematically analyze military leadership in a VUCA environment. This way, it can be a contribution to understanding this topic and to frame future empirical studies.
... Kompleksitas yang terjadi tidak memberikan jaminan transformasi sosial itu terkait protokol kesehatan akan menjadi hal baru kebiasaan seperti yang disebutkan dalam konsep normal baru. Dia juga rekomendasi dari Aura tidak dapat diterapkan dengan baik (Codreanu, 2016). Ada beberapa yang kurang soliditas sosial dari masyarakat dan aparatur pemerintah menghadapi Covid-19. ...
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Artikel ini bertujuan menganalisis kesimpangsiuran informasi, ketidakpastian situasi, serta kegalauan manusia yang membayangi tindakan warga Indonesia, seiring dengan pandemi yang belum berakhir dan tidak bisa diprediksi kapan akan selesai. Kerentanan, ketidakpastian, kompleksitas masalah dan ambiguitas dari berbagai pilihan-pilihan merupakan kondisi yang dijelaskan oleh konsep VUCA. Covid-19 yang telah menjangkiti lebih dari satu juta jiwa di tanah air menimbulkan banyak kehebohan di dalam berbagai ranah; ekonomi, politik, sosial, budaya dan berbagai aspek kehidupan lainnya. Penelitian ini menggunakan kajian kepustakaan dan dengan melakukan analisis data sekunder dari Tweeter serta penyebaran kuesioner ringkas melalu google form kepada 969 responden di Pulau Jawa, Bali, Sumatera, Kalimantan, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi dan Papua penulis menemukan bahwa era VUCA memfasilitasi berbagai kerumitan dalam menghadapi Covid-19. Kebijakan kikuk dari pemerintah menciptakan jalan ketidakpastian dalam proses transformasi sosial menuju masyarakat yang peduli terhadap protokol kesehatan. Artikel ini memberikan sumbangsih gagasan terkait aksi sosial tentang kepedulian tatanan sosial baru, kebersamaan, dan tanggung jawab untuk mewujudkan kehidupan normal baru.
... In the contemporary business landscape, the term VUCA succinctly encapsulates organisations' multifaceted challenges relating to (V)olatility, which signifies instability and the rapid and often unpredictable changes brought about by technological advancements and market fluctuations (Codreanu, 2016;Kail, 2010c). (U)ncertainty, where the future trajectory of the industry and consumer preferences remains shrouded in ambiguity, making long-term planning problematic and stimulating a shift toward more flexible and adaptive planning processes (Kail, 2010b). ...
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Purpose This study demonstrates how artificial intelligence (AI) shapes the strategic planning process in volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) business environments. Having adopted various domains of the Cynefin framework, the research explores AI's transformative potential and provide insights regarding how organisations can harness AI-driven solutions for strategic planning. Design/methodology/approach This conceptual paper theorises the role of AI in strategic planning process in a VUCA world by integrating extant knowledge across multiple literature streams. The “model paper” approach was adopted to provide a theoretical framework predicting relationships among considered concepts. Findings The paper highlights potential application of the Cynefin framework to manage complexities in strategic decision-making process, the transformative impact of AI at different stages of strategic planning, the required strategic planning characteristics within VUCA to be supported by AI and the attendant challenges posed by AI integration in the uncertain business landscape. Originality/value This study pioneers a theoretical exploration of AI's role in strategic planning within the VUCA business landscape, guided by the Cynefin framework. Thus, it enriches scholarly discourse and expands knowledge frontiers.
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Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye Cumhuriyeti’nin 100. yılında şehir ve bölge planlama meslek alanına bütüncül olarak bakıp kuram, kılgı, mevzuat ve mülkiyet bileşenlerinden oluşan bu sistemin ortamları itibariyle nasıl ilişkiler içinde işlediğinin ortaya konulmasıdır. Bu bağlamda kuram ile kastedilen teorik çalışmaların araştırmanın, eğitim ve öğretimin yer aldığı üniversite ortamı iken kılgı ile planlamanın gerçekleştirildiği uygulama ortamı ifade edilmektedir. Mevzuat ile planlama yasal zemini ile bu zeminin geliştirildiği özellikle Bakanlıklar ve yasama mercilerinin yer aldığı ortam kastedilirken mülkiyet ile ifade edilmek istenen ise özel ya da kamuda bulunan sahiplilik ve kamulaştırma gibi hususları da barındıran ortamdır. Bu doğrultuda betimleyici yöntemler kullanılmış ve Türkiye şehir ve bölge planlama sistemi bileşenlerinin mevcutta içine dönük yapısının (ayrık/kapalı/silsileli/kabuklu yapı) olduğu ortaya konmuştur. Bunun yerine yansıtıcı ve soğurgan bir yapı (bütünleşik/açık/yerel/hazırlıklı-proaktif) önerilmektedir. Bu doğrultuda bu çalışma, mevcut durumu çözümleme üzerinden yeni arayışlara altlık oluşturarak şehir ve bölge planlama meslek alanına katkıda bulunmaktadır.
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This special issue on ‘Governing a VUCA World’ aims to contribute to ongoing endeavours in expanding the practices and theories of governance by bringing in perspectives and case studies from the Global South at a time of great turbulence and uncertainties. It hopes to further advance discussions pertaining to various aspects of Asian experiences of governance in developing a model of transnational governance that embraces agility and flexibility in navigating a VUCA world that is fraught with volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.
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Objective The present research was conducted with the aim of identifying the competencies (knowledge, skills, abilities, attitudes, and characteristics) required of leaders in a turbulent environment. Methods This study employed a qualitative approach and a meta-synthesis method. The method provided by Sandelowski and Barroso (2007) was utilized for this purpose. The research community consisted of 483 scientific documents published between 2016 and 2023, which were sourced from 8 international and 4 domestic databases. The databases searched included ProQuest, Google Scholar, ScienceDirect, PubMed, Sage, Emerald, ResearchGate, Springer, SID, IranDoc, Normex, and MagIran. After analyzing the titles and content, 27 scientific documents were selected and thoroughly analyzed. The findings were then analyzed using the thematic analysis method. Results A review of the existing literature on the competencies of leaders in turbulent environments reveals that, despite the substantial research conducted in this field, only certain aspects of these competencies have been addressed. The dimensions and categories of leadership in turbulent conditions have not been comprehensively examined together, nor has a comprehensive model been developed. Moreover, the obstacles to developing these competencies have not been adequately presented. Based on the findings of the present study, the competencies of leaders in a turbulent environment were organized into five dimensions: abilities, individual ethics, organizational and psychological ethics, attitudes, knowledge, and skills. The knowledge dimension includes 13 concepts under two components: organizational knowledge and peripheral knowledge. The abilities dimension
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Háttér és célkitűzések: A mai gyorsanváltozó, bizonytalanságot okozó környezeti feltételek között a generativitás, vagyis a szélesebb környezetre és a jövő generációjára való fokozott odafigyelés, egy olyan kulcs koncepció, amely megoldást kínálhat számos jelenkori problémá-ra, többek között az öregedő társadalmakra, a környezettudatos fogyasztásra, valamint a szer-vezetek adaptabilitásának a kérdésére. Áttekintő tanulmányunkban a generativitás koncepcióját járjuk körbe, kitérve annak mérési lehetőségeire és jelenlegi főbb kutatási irányaira. Eredmények: Az eddigi szakirodalomban fellelhetőek kvantitatív és kvalitatív mérési lehe-tőségek a generativitás megragadására. A kvantitatív lehetőségek közül találhatunk olyat, amely az egész eriksoni fejlődéselméletet méri, olyat, amely a generativitás egy összetevőjére fókuszál, és olyat, amely kimondottan a vezetői generativitást helyezi fókuszba. A kvalitatív lehetőségek nyitott végű kérdéseket, élettörténeti epizódokat vagy az egész élettörténetet helyezik a kutatás fókuszába. Következtetések: A generativitásra vonatkozó kutatások reneszánszukat élik. Legfőképpen a sikeres idősödés, a fenntartható fogyasztás és a vezetés koncepciójával kapcsolják össze a fogalmat. A jelenleg elérhető mérőeszközök mind amerikai kontextusban kerültek kialakí-tásra, annak érdekében, hogy magyar kulturális közegben is kellő megbízhatósággal alkal-mazhatóak legyenek, szükséges lenne adaptálni őket.
Chapter
In today's business environment, characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA), traditional decision-making approaches fall short. This chapter delves into the necessity for organizations to view uncertainty as a strategic asset and provides actionable strategies for effective decision-making in the face of VUCA.Globalization, technological disruption, and geopolitical turbulence have led to profound shifts in the business landscape, contributing to a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Real-world case studies illustrate the application of these principles. From startups navigating turbulent markets to corporations adapting to technological disruption, embracing uncertainty proves transformative. In conclusion, organizations must shift their approach to decision-making in the VUCA world. By reframing uncertainty as an opportunity and adopting proactive strategies grounded in strategic foresight and collaboration, they can thrive amidst evolving landscapes.
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Anticipating and preparing for the future before it arrives can provide leaders (political, corporate, religious, and nonprofit) with great advantage. Leaders from many domains will shape the future of aging. Ten necessary leadership skills for success require intense future study and an ability to engage with radical change. Some of these skills are: Exploit your inner drive to build, grow and connect; see through complications to a future others can't envision; turn dilemmas into opportunities; learn from unfamiliar worlds; see things from nature's point of view; bring calm to tense situations; nurture purposeful business or social-change networks.
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