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Energy efficiency with the application of Virtual Arrival policy
Abstract
The shipping sector’s emissions and energy efficiency are attracting increasing international scrutiny, with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) actively promoting better energy management by implementing mandatory Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plans (SEEMP). Key potential measures to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions are speed optimization and improved communication with charterers and ports to work towards ‘just in time’ operation when there are known delays in port (Virtual Arrival). In this paper we assess empirically, for the first time, the potential reduction in fuel consumption and emissions from the implementation of a Virtual Arrival policy in a global context based on ship position data from the Automated Identification System (AIS). We evaluate 5066 voyages performed by 483 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) between 44 countries for the period 2013–2015 and estimate the potential for fuel savings if unproductive waiting time at the destination ports can instead be utilized to reduce the average sailing speed. We find that even if only 50% of the estimated waiting time can be avoided, the consequential slow-down in average sailing speeds leads to an average reduction of 422 tonnes of CO2 and 6.7 tonnes of SOx emissions per voyage. Our findings are important for policy making and the optimization of voyage management in shipping companies as they illustrate the substantial savings on fuel costs and emissions from the broad implementation of Virtual Arrival compared to the prevailing first-come first-served berthing policy and the standard charterparty term of sailing with ‘utmost dispatch’.
... JIT arrival can be used to reduce fuel consumption and emissions from vessels by detecting delays at the destination port and adjusting the sailing speed accordingly (Merkel et al., 2022). Estimates regarding the potential of JIT range from 2% to 20% in fuel and emissions savings (Jia et al., 2017;Merkel et al., 2022), prompting international institutions and government administrations to endorse its use for emission reduction (IMO, 2020;SMA, 2021). However, the actual implementation of JIT remains limited in practice (Sung et al., 2022). ...
... Illustration of the port call process potential benefits associated with the transition from FCFS to alternative arrival policies. For example, Merkel et al. (2022) and Jia et al. (2017) estimated savings between 2% and 20% in fuel and emissions by the implementation of JIT in the Swedish and global context of port calls for the tramp shipping segment, respectively. In the Chinese container port context, the implementation of JIT would reduce service delay, fuel consumption and emission by 6.87%, 8.11% and 4.98% for calling vessels (Yu and Voß, 2023). ...
... The literature on maritime logistics addressing the JIT phenomenon has primarily focused on its potential. The majority deploys a modeling approach to estimate the fuel and emission savings associated with JIT, assuming its implementation (Merkel et al., 2022;Jia et al., 2017). This study focuses on the actual implementation of JIT and contributes to the literature by explaining how IJPDLM the estimated potential can be realized in practice. ...
Purpose
Just-in-Time (JIT) arrival in the context of port calls can be used to reduce fuel and emissions to achieve environmental targets. The purpose of this paper is to study the implementation process of the Pre-booking Berth Allocation Policy (PBP) and analyze the effectiveness of this policy for the implementation of JIT in port calls.
Design/methodology/approach
The study deploys a single case study approach to empirically analyze port authority’s transition from a first-come-first-served (FCFS) arrival policy to the PBP. Observations, interviews and documents were used to collect data during 2020–2022. The analysis deployed the capability, opportunity, motivation and behavior model.
Findings
The transition from FCFS to PBP requires an inter-organizational approach, engaging external actors to manage diverse needs and preferences. This fosters effective transition and addresses conflicting interests. The PBP enables JIT arrival, enhancing operational and environmental performance, but faces barriers such as resource dependency and lack of trust. Information sharing capability among the actors, supported by Port Community Systems and adjusted operating rules, is crucial. Moreover, the PBP facilitates integration between sea and hinterland transportation, improving planning and efficiency across maritime transportation chains.
Research limitations/implications
The single case study limits the generalizability of the findings.
Practical implications
Implementing the PBP is complex and demands careful planning from managers. Involving port call actors in the transition is helpful for port managers because they provide valuable feedback and highlight overlooked issues.
Originality/value
Five propositions are suggested to highlight the role of inter-organizational collaboration, information sharing and overcoming barriers such as resource dependency to successfully realize the benefits of JIT in maritime transportation chains.
... Additionally, following the acknowledgment of the advantageous outcomes stemming from collaboration between the port and shipping domains, the Justin-Time Arrival (JITA) initiative, introduced by the IMO-Global Industry Alliance (GIA), advocates for vessels to optimize their speed to reach the pilot boarding place (PBP) at the requested time of arrival (RTA), contingent upon the assurance of berth availability, fairway clearance, and the provision of nautical services by the Port Authority (PA) [3]. Moreover, the researchers [4][5][6][7][8][9] concurred that both JITA and VA represent promising sustainable measures, as they effectively decrease fuel consumption while maintaining transportation service quality, efficient traffic management, and minimizing in-transit inventory costs for cargo. Although both VA and JITA share a mutual goal of alleviating congestion and minimizing emissions that impact neighboring port communities, JITA emphasizes the readiness of subsequent infrastructure and the preparedness of nautical service providers within the port to diminish the waiting time at anchorage. ...
... These approaches entail modeling fuel consumption and CO2 emissions and analyzing outcomes using descriptive statistics. Established models are also employed to calculate fuel consumption and emissions, while genetic algorithms are utilized for specific problem definitions [4,7,8,12]. A combination of FAHP and the Expert System is another methodological approach to managing traffic flow in confined waters. ...
... Despite the compelling evidence highlighting the benefits of the JITA policy for reducing GHG emissions and air pollution, the dry bulk shipping sector continues to prefer the widely adopted FCFS queuing policy. This preference aligns with the unique characteristics of tramp businesses [7][8][9]11]. ...
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) persistently improves policies to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from maritime operations, emphasizing the significance of operational measures. Simultaneously, heightened recognition of collaborative efforts within the maritime sector has increased the applicability of arrival policies like Just-In-Time Arrival (JITA), aimed at curtailing unnecessary anchorage time and emissions affecting adjacent communities in port vi-cinities. Nevertheless, ongoing initiatives advocate adopting JITA over the prevailing First Come, First Served (FCFS) policy, which is perceived as inefficient and, in the meantime, fair in the shipping industry. This research introduces an integrated decision support model to facilitate the implementation of a sustainable ship queuing policy by the VTS. The model addresses critical concerns , including the priorities of relevant authorities, the duration of nautical services for incoming vessels, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions attributable to anchorage waiting times. The decision support framework presented integrates the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and PRO-METHEE II methodologies; the study's outcomes suggest that the model significantly reduces ships' unnecessary CO2 emissions during anchorage waiting periods compared to the FCFS policy, with reduction rates ranging from 32.8% to 45% based on case analysis. Moreover, the proposed model ensures fairness by treating competing arriving ships equitably according to predefined criteria .
... To achieve the emission reduction goals set by the IMO and mitigate environmental impact, it is imperative to reduce vessels emissions. Current research [6][7][8][9][10] suggests that significant potential exists for emission reductions by improving navigational efficiency (traveling at the minimum speed necessary). In general, fuel consumption of a ship is linearly related to the third or fourth power of the speed, and currently ships tend to travel to ports at a higher speed and have to wait at anchor, which increases fuel consumption and carbon emissions both when sailing in the sea near the port and during the waiting period of the ship. ...
... In a study by Jia [8], 5,066 worldwide reductions in fuel consumption and emissions were empirically assessed for a fleet of 483 VLCCs between 2013 and 2015 using Automatic Identification System (AIS) vessel position data, which was based on the potential reduction in fuel consumption and emissions from the implementation of a virtual arrival policy. The average sailing speed was reduced by using non-productive waiting time at the destination port, assuming that the vessel speed could be adjusted throughout the voyage. ...
... [1, 4,5,7,6,2,10,8,17,13,14,21,15,3,19,17,16,11,22,12,29,26,28,30,25,31,9,24,32,18,27,23] 82.39 3639 11 [1,4,5,7,6,2,10,8,13,20,14,21,15,3,19,17,16,11,22,25,29,26,28,30,12,31,32,18,9,24,27,23] 84.49 3865 ...
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is enforcing increasingly stringent regulations on ship carbon emissions, The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has been implementing progressively strict regulations on ship carbon emissions, leading to the adoption of the virtual arrival (VA) method by many vessels to reduce their carbon footprint. However, the effectiveness of the traditional VA method often varies in busy ports with complex traffic organization scenarios. To address this, our study presents a novel, comprehensive model that integrates vessel scheduling with the VA approach. This model is designed to achieve a dual objective: reducing carbon emissions through Virtual Arrival and simultaneously minimizing vessel waiting times. In addition to these goals, it incorporates essential aspects of safety, efficiency, and fairness in port management, utilizing the NSGA-2 algorithm to find optimal solutions. This model has been tested and validated through a case study at Ningbo-Zhoushan port, employing its dataset. The results demonstrate that our innovative model and algorithm significantly outperform traditional scheduling methods, such as First-Come-First-Serve (FCFS) and Virtual-Arrival Last-Serve (VALS), particularly in terms of operational efficiency and reduction in vessel carbon emissions.
... Virtual Arrival, also referred to as Just-in-time arrival, is an operational process where a vessel's speed is reduced to meet a Required Time of Arrival in the presence of known delays at the discharge port [17]. The Oil Companies International Marine Forum (OCIMF) and the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners (INTERANKO) consider it wasteful for vessels to travel at full speed to ports with identified cargo handling delays [17]. ...
... Virtual Arrival, also referred to as Just-in-time arrival, is an operational process where a vessel's speed is reduced to meet a Required Time of Arrival in the presence of known delays at the discharge port [17]. The Oil Companies International Marine Forum (OCIMF) and the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners (INTERANKO) consider it wasteful for vessels to travel at full speed to ports with identified cargo handling delays [17]. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Digital Container Shipping Association (DSCA) also recognizes this concept as Just-in-time arrival [18,19]. ...
... RP P,Q,v i ,w j = (p 1 , p 2 , · · · , p n , · · · , p P ) = Seg 1 , Seg 2 , · · · , Seg m , · · · Seg Q (17) Seg m = p P Q (m−1)+1 , p P Q (m−1)+2 , · · · , p P Q m−1 , p P Q m ...
Container terminals are at the center of global logistics, and are highly dependent on the schedule of vessels arriving. Conventional ETA records from ships, utilized for terminal berth planning, lack sufficient accuracy for effective plan implementation. Thus, there is a pressing need for improved ETA prediction methods. In this research, we propose a novel approach that leverages past voyage route patterns to predict the ETA of container vessels arriving at a container terminal at Busan New Port, South Korea. By modeling representative paths based on previous ports of call, the method employs real-time position and speed data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) to predict vessel arrival times. By inputting AIS data into segmented representative routes, optimal parameters yielding minimal ETA errors for each vessel are determined. The algorithm’s performance evaluation during the modeling period demonstrates its effectiveness, achieving an average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of approximately 3 h and 14 min. These results surpass the accuracy of existing ETA data, such as ETA in the Terminal Operating System and ETA in the AIS of a vessel, indicating the algorithm’s superiority in ETA estimation. Furthermore, the algorithm consistently outperforms the existing ETA benchmarks during the evaluation period, confirming its enhanced accuracy.
... An important feature of its implementation is that a reduction of waiting time in port can be used (in part or in full) to reduce the sailing speed of arriving vessels without increasing the duration of the voyage. Despite its theoretical simplicity and its high potential for emission reduction, its implementation at the vessel or voyage level is often hindered by barriers such as misaligned incentives and contractual constraints (Rehmatulla and Smith, 2015) leading to unproductive waiting times at port (Johnson and Styhre, 2015;Jia et al., 2017). ...
... Our focus is on the latter concept, named by Johnson and Styhre (2015) as speed reduction due to port efficiency. The large emission reduction potential from implementing this concept was presented by Jia et al. (2017) in the case of Very Large Crude Carriers. As extensions to their study, they encouraged the introduction of algorithms to recognize waiting times with higher accuracy and expanding studies to other vessel sizes and types. ...
... A second contractual barrier is the 'utmost dispatch' clause for voyage charters (Rehmatulla and Smith, 2015;Jia et al. 2017; Global Industry Alliance, 2020) that instructs the vessel to proceed to a destination port without delay 4 . Consequently, an owner is not generally free to reduce the sailing speed on the laden voyage in the interest of reducing emissions or fuel costs, unless an exemption clause exists to that effect. ...
In this study, we investigate the impact on shipping emissions from improving operational efficiency in a maritime chokepoint such as a canal. We consider several scheduling proposals that allow for different levels of speed reduction for incoming vessels and estimate the resulting emission reduction compared to a benchmark established from ship position data. For our case study of the Panama Canal, we estimate that the canal could have removed up to 1.8 million tonnes of CO2e per year for the period of 2019 to 2021. Our findings suggest that emission reduction can be easier to obtain at intermediate points as many of the contractual barriers to improving operational efficiency do not apply.
... In voyage (spot) charter parties, the due despatch clause in the contract instructs the ship's Master to sail at utmost despatch, regardless of whether a berth is available or not (Bazari, 2016a;IMO, 2020;Alvarez et al., 2010;Jia et al., 2017;Xing et al., 2020). By this approach, the charterer intends to reduce the risk of demurrage payment to the owner and might be beneficiary by receiving the despatch fee from the owner due to releasing the ship before the time specified in the contract. ...
... By this approach, the charterer intends to reduce the risk of demurrage payment to the owner and might be beneficiary by receiving the despatch fee from the owner due to releasing the ship before the time specified in the contract. This is against the slow steaming concept Jia et al., 2017;Serra and Fancello, 2020) and a barrier to exploit for example the potential of wind-assisted technologies , but it is in line with the "first-come-first-served" principle Balland et al., 2012;Psaraftis and Kontovas, 2015;Bazari, 2016a;Alvarez et al., 2010;Holsvik and Williksen, 2020;Jia et al., 2017;Jia et al., 2017) which is currently practiced in many ports. By contrast, the owner intends for slow steaming (Holsvik and Williksen, 2020) to reduce the fuel cost (in voyage charter, fuel cost is on the burden of the owner) with the expectation to receive demurrage if the vessel had arrived at the original time. ...
... By this approach, the charterer intends to reduce the risk of demurrage payment to the owner and might be beneficiary by receiving the despatch fee from the owner due to releasing the ship before the time specified in the contract. This is against the slow steaming concept Jia et al., 2017;Serra and Fancello, 2020) and a barrier to exploit for example the potential of wind-assisted technologies , but it is in line with the "first-come-first-served" principle Balland et al., 2012;Psaraftis and Kontovas, 2015;Bazari, 2016a;Alvarez et al., 2010;Holsvik and Williksen, 2020;Jia et al., 2017;Jia et al., 2017) which is currently practiced in many ports. By contrast, the owner intends for slow steaming (Holsvik and Williksen, 2020) to reduce the fuel cost (in voyage charter, fuel cost is on the burden of the owner) with the expectation to receive demurrage if the vessel had arrived at the original time. ...
Shipping industry, like other industrial sectors, suffers from an energy efficiency gap. The majority of the literature focuses more on identifying barriers than proposing solutions. This study seeks to achieve two objectives: first, to provide a repository of barriers/solutions for shipping decarbonization, and second, to identify an optimal policy framework to combine all the solutions in the best way. In this vein, a two-phase literature review is conducted; at the first phase, with a focus on energy efficiency in non-maritime literature, a barrier template is developed which is applied to maritime literature in the second phase. The result is a comprehensive repository of barriers and solutions for shipping decarbonization. Our findings indicate that, while policy deficiencies are the most prevalent barriers, the financial footprint is clearly evident in most solutions. Therefore our recommendation is an economic-based policy with an integrated approach that supports all the possible solutions in parallel.
... Some CO 2 abatement measures are associated with negative cost e.g., through a reduction of the fuel bill that is greater than the cost of its implementation (Eide et al., 2011;Acciaro et al., 2013). In tramp shipping, Port Call Optimization (PCO) measures in general and Virtual Arrival (VA) in particular, is recognized as a promising measure to reduce fuel consumption and CO 2 -emissions without negatively impacting the service quality from the cargo owners' perspective (Jia et al., 2017;Du et al., 2015;Andersson and Ivehammar, 2017). VA is commonly regarded as an operational process allowing the ship to reduce its speed to be able to meet a Required Time of Arrival (RTA), given a known delay at its destination port (INTERTANKO and OCIMF, 2011). ...
... Several studies have estimated the fuel savings potential of implementing VA with estimates ranging from about 20% at the high end (Jia et al., 2017) and less than 10% at the low end (Johnson and Styhre, 2015). Realizing fuel savings of this magnitude would result in a substantial reduction in CO 2 -emissions from the concerned shipping sector. ...
... Schwartz et al. (2020) mention that ships spend considerable time in ports waiting in queues. Andersson and Ivehammar (2017) and Jia et al. (2017) declare the same, arguing that tankers in particular, spend considerable amounts of time waiting to berth, at anchor. In Texas' terminal, tankers awaiting berth represents 23% of the total delay at the terminal (Song and Panayides, 2015). ...
The promise of Port Call Optimization (PCO) measures such as Virtual Arrival (VA) for increased fuel efficiency in shipping is emphasized in the literature and professional ranks alike. Despite their envisioned benefits and feasibility, the implementation of such measures has largely remained lacking. Recent studies indicate that the potential of VA on fuel efficiency might be overestimated. In this paper we propose a new approach to estimate the fuel efficiency potential of VA based on traffic data from the Swedish tramp shipping sector. Our results indicate that the feasible fuel efficiency potential of VA is significantly smaller than what has previously been reported with no discernible benefit to large cohorts of voyages. We conclude that further empirical analyses are required for increased accuracy of the estimation of the potential of PCO for increased fuel efficiency in shipping and that more measured approaches in implementation and evaluation of PCO are called for.
... To ease port congestion and lower emissions, the 'virtual arrival' (VA) (also a.k.a. "just-in-time arrival") strategy, is advocated (Du et al., 2015;Jia et al., 2017). When there is a known delay in the focal port, the VA strategy allows a ship to reduce its sailing speed to meet a revised arrival time (Du et al., 2015;Jia et al., 2017). ...
... "just-in-time arrival") strategy, is advocated (Du et al., 2015;Jia et al., 2017). When there is a known delay in the focal port, the VA strategy allows a ship to reduce its sailing speed to meet a revised arrival time (Du et al., 2015;Jia et al., 2017). That is, the port will communicate the updated availability of berths to shipping operators and the shipping operators will accordingly adjust the sailing speeds of their ships with the aim of reducing waiting times at the port as well as decreasing the bunker fuel consumption at sea. ...
Seaports, the nodal and bottleneck points in the global supply chain network, have been making effort to encourage shipping companies to book berths before ships arrive at the ports. The information and communication technology (ICT) system is essential for the success of this effort. We propose an appointment mechanism with a refund policy for the berth booking ICT system to mitigate port congestion. Two refund policies are investigated: cash refund policy and coupon refund policy. We develop a bi-level model that considers the interests of the port and shipping companies, with which the cash refund policy determines its optimal booking fee and the returned cash, and the coupon refund policy determines its optimal booking fee, the value of the coupon, and the shelf life of the coupon. Numerical experiments are conducted to analyze the two refund policies, the reactions of shipping companies with different characteristics, and how the port takes advantage of the characteristics of shipping companies to maximize profit. The proposed appointment mechanism achieves a win-win performance for the port and shipping companies as it increases the income of the port and reduces the delay cost of shipping companies. This study innovatively investigates the refund policy for the berth booking system and helps understand the mechanism of the system, thereby providing theoretical support for applying the berth booking system in the maritime industry. Moreover, this study contributes to alleviating port congestion and to environmental sustainability by reducing ship emissions caused by waiting at port and inappropriate sailing speed.
... Vessel just-in-time arrival is also termed virtual arrival, which refers to the practice of the vessel slowing down in anticipation of the congestion and waiting at the next port of call. Jia et al. [16] evaluated 5066 voyages by 483 very large crude carriers between 44 countries and estimated the emissions could be reduced by 7% to 19% if the just-in-time arrival measure were adopted. It is well-known that vessels spend a significant amount of time at ports. ...
... Operational Slowing ship speed Container ships at Los Angeles and Long Beach; engine load factor reduced from 80% to 10%. [15] Just-in-time arrival 483 very large crude carriers; 7-19% emission reduction [16]; bluevisby.com (accessed on 10 December 2023) ...
This paper provides a comprehensive review of the literature related to seaport decarbonisation by combining the academic literature with case studies, industrial reports, newsletters, and domain knowledge. Through the literature review, the emission sources at seaports are categorised according to different criteria for better understanding. One of the criteria is the geographic location, which divides the emission sources into four categories. For each emission source category, the emission reduction measures in the literature are categorised into six structured categories including operational measures, technical measures, fuel and energy measures, infrastructural measures, digitalisation measures, and policy and collaboration measures. The first three categories have a direct impact on emission reductions, whereas the last three categories tend to support and facilitate the development and implementation of the first three categories. Representative case studies are selected from the UK ports to discuss their decarbonisation practices and pathways to net zero. We then propose a generic time-phased roadmap for port decarbonisation towards net zero, which divides the solution measures in each category into three phases to show their progressive processes. We explain the dependence relationships of the solution measures in the roadmap and discuss the challenges and opportunities in the implementation of the roadmap. This paper could offer strategic guidelines to port-associated stakeholders to implement emission reduction strategies and transition to net zero from the system perspective.
... To achieve the emission reduction goals set by the IMO and mitigate environmental impacts, it is imperative to reduce vessel emissions. Current research [6][7][8][9][10] suggests that significant potential exists for emission reductions by improving navigational efficiency (traveling at the minimum speed necessary). Reducing carbon emissions from vessels and minimizing the waiting time at busy ports not only contributes to environmental amelioration but also yields manifold economic benefits. ...
... In a study by Jia et al. [8], 5066 worldwide reductions in fuel consumption and emissions were empirically assessed for a fleet of 483 VLCCs between 2013 and 2015 using Automatic Identification System (AIS) vessel position data, which was based on the potential reduction in fuel consumption and emissions from the implementation of a virtual arrival policy. The average sailing speed was reduced by using non-productive waiting time at the destination port, assuming that the vessel speed could be adjusted throughout the voyage. ...
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has been progressively implementing stricter regulations on ship carbon emissions, leading to many vessels adopting the virtual arrival (VA) method to reduce their carbon footprint. However, the effectiveness of the traditional VA method often varies in busy ports with complex traffic organization scenarios. To address this, our study presents a novel, comprehensive model that integrates vessel scheduling with the VA approach. This model is designed to achieve a dual objective: reducing carbon emissions through virtual arrival while simultaneously minimizing vessel waiting times. In addition to these goals, it incorporates essential aspects of safety, efficiency, and fairness in port management, utilizing the NSGA-2 algorithm to find optimal solutions. This model has been tested and validated through a case study at Ningbo-Zhoushan port, employing its dataset. The results demonstrate that our innovative model and algorithm significantly outperform traditional scheduling methods, such as First-Come-First-Serve (FCFS) and Virtual-Arrival Last-Serve (VALS), particularly in terms of operational efficiency and reduction in vessel carbon emissions.
... On top of AIS data as reference, Virtual Arrival (VA) policy was laid out as a procedure to initiate optimization of sailing speed, through communication between charterers and ports to strive for JITA when there is known delay in port (Jia et al., 2017). VA policy has gained merits in Mandatory Ship Energy Management Plan (SEEMP) by the Fig. 6. ...
... In spite of aforementioned strategies, challenges such as the prevailing FCFS berthing policy and standard charter party term of sailing with "utmost dispatch" (Jia et al., 2017) still remain as deep-rooted principles in the maritime industry. The transformation will not be easy if the industry does not undertake to tackle the stereotype (Porathe, 2016). ...
... Lee, Lam, and Lee (2016) evaluate the effects of Asian economic integration on CO 2 emissions. Jia et al. (2017) develop an AIS-based model to investigate how virtual arrival policy can reduce fuel consumption and emissions in tanker shipping. ...
... Fuel consumed by the main engine is calculated based on the installed power, specific fuel oil consumption (SFOC), engine load-a cubic function of the ratio between instantaneous speed and design speed, draught effect-a power of two thirds of the ratio between operational draught and design draught, and transit time (based on International Maritime Organization -IMO 2015; Jia et al. 2017). The formula is described as follows: ...
Emissions from ships have negative effects on both humans and the environment, particularly in port areas. This paper develops a bottom-up activity-based model to compute emissions from container vessels within the boundaries of the port of Singapore. The input data is nearly 2 million Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals recording ship calls and various ship specifications. The paper analyses the container vessel segment by compiling a comprehensive emission profile by vessel size, port call time and carriers. This generates new insights in the dynamics and sources of ship emissions. The results show that the majority of emissions were produced by ship calls of shorter than 2 days, and 46% of the total emissions were produced by container feeder vessels as a result of Singapore port being a major international transhipment hub and the more frequent visits from such vessels. Our study also indicates stable distribution of emissions over the year, suggesting seasonality does not play a major role in container shipping operations.
... Following the adoption of UNCLOS, the IMO has continued to establish international standards through conventions and instruments on the environmental performance of international shipping (Basaran, 2016 While UNCLOS provides for 'general protection of the marine environment' and an enforcement regime for Member States, the IMO specifically addresses marine environmental issues related to the 'prevention of ship-source pollution' and the mitigation of the effects of damage that may result from 'maritime operations and accidents' (Churchill, 2015;IMO-ME, 2024). The IMO is currently working on various new instruments related to the marine environment, such as 'air pollution, energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions' (Oberthür, 2003;Lin and Lin, 2006;Jia et al., 2017;Gössling et al., 2021;Liu et al., 2022). Meanwhile, the role of the IMO and its Conventions in assisting States to fulfil their obligations to protect the marine environment under UNCLOS has been further recognised (Andrianov, 1990;Beckman, 2007;Beckman and Sun, 2017). ...
Autonomous ships are seen as the next generation of ships to meet sustainability challenges. While abundant studies have noted the potential of autonomous ships to be emission-free and reduce air pollution, research has paid scant attention to the significant uncertainties of the autonomous shipping that may lead to new environmental risks such as traffic incidents and oil spills. It is therefore necessary to assess the compatibility of the autonomous ships with international environmental laws and regulations. An analytical framework of international law on ship-source pollution has been proposed to contemplate such a legal assessment. Autonomous ships would challenge the relevant treaty provisions on preventing, combating and compensating for ship-source pollution and raise a number of new legal issues, resulting in a current lack of legal predictability and certainty. Only as autonomous ships become more widely tested, recognised and trusted will a robust roadmap for legalising MASS become clearer.
... The focus of energy efficiency is more than just reducing emissions, it's about improving the efficiency of ships to reduce fuel consumption, thereby achieving environmental and economic benefits. Key operational actions, include for example the reduction of speed and application of the virtual arrival policy, thereby encouraging practices that are both environmentally friendly and financially sound in the maritime field [15]. ...
The maritime industry is urged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve the energy efficiency of ships. A potential and relatively inexpensive solution is to implement data analytics as an aid to identify areas of improvement to optimize ship performance and fuel consumption. This study investigates barriers to data analytics for maritime organizations intending to utilize data as a means of operational enhancement. This study used the DELPHI – Best Worst Method (BWM) hybrid approach to identify and rank the barriers to data analytics for energy efficiency. The results revealed a total 20 sub-barriers grouped into five main barriers. These barriers fall into two overarching categories: Organizational barriers, including Cultural, Managerial, and Economic, and Technological barriers, comprising Data Management and Data Analysis. This study also highlights the most critical barriers within each category, revealing inadequate data governance, multiple suppliers needed to implement a comprehensive system and contracts and restrictive clauses as the dominant barriers that hamper the adoption of big data analytics in the maritime domain.
... But the influence of weather conditions requires the ship to slow down during bad weather and speed up during calm periods. Therefore, the use of the concept of virtual arrival is suggested to ship owners in order to save fuel [16]. The cited paper empirically estimates the potential reduction in fuel consumption and emissions from the implementation of a virtual arrival policy in a global context based on vessel location data from the Automated Identification System (AIS). ...
The object of research is the processes of planning the minimum operating costs of a vessel with minimal risk to it and its cargo, considering the forecasted hydrometeorological conditions. The aim is to increase the fuel efficiency of a vessel’s passage, considering the forecast of weather conditions when forming an optimal safe route in the e-Navigation system. To achieve the research goal, conventional cellular automata and the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic were used in the process of decision-making and assessment of the impact of weather conditions on traffic efficiency. The devised approach makes it possible to synthesize an optimal route for the vessel, which ensures minimum fuel consumption and has minimal risk for the vessel and cargo while considering variable hydrometeorological conditions along the route. Minimization of operating costs is achieved through the ability of cellular automata to describe the complex behavior of objects, considering local rules. Automata are a computing system in discrete spaces. Data uncertainty has led to the need to use a fuzzy system, the effectiveness of which depends on the quality and accuracy of rules. Fuzzy automata, by combining fuzzy logic and automata theory, made it possible to process continuous steps and model the inherent uncertainty. To determine the state of cells of a fuzzy cellular automaton and the transition function between them, a system of productive rules and membership functions was used. It is the consistency of the system of productive rules when using fuzzy logic to build a cellular automaton that enables the construction of a quasi-global optimal routing method in comparison with conventional methods for calculating the ship’s route
... Location, speed, and ETA from AIS data are the primary factors that need to be considered in energy efficiency studies. Reducing anchorage time is one way to improve energy efficiency (Jia et al., 2017). To this end, Watson et al. (2015) applied an integrated information system to optimize sailing speed for minimum anchorage time. ...
Automatic Identification System (AIS) data holds immense research value in the maritime industry because of its massive scale and the ability to reveal the spatial-temporal variation patterns of vessels. Unfortunately, its potential has long been limited by traditional methodologies. The emergence of machine learning (ML) offers a promising avenue to unlock the full potential of AIS data. In recent years, there has been a growing interest among researchers in leveraging ML to analyze and utilize AIS data. This paper, therefore, provides a comprehensive review of ML applications using AIS data and offers valuable suggestions for future research, such as constructing benchmark AIS datasets, exploring more deep learning (DL) and deep reinforcement learning (DRL) applications on AIS-based studies, and developing large-scale ML models trained by AIS data.
... Their work aligns closely with our study, emphasizing the significance of vessel dwell time in fostering efficient fleet management and operation. This concept can be encapsulated by the term "just-in-time arrival" (JITA) [27,28], also referred to as the "virtual arrival" (VA) [29] policy. The principle of the just-in-time arrival policy entails a streamlined operational protocol wherein a vessel, designated as A, adjusts its sea-going speed with consideration for the impending departure of another vessel, labeled B, from the berth where vessel A is destined to dock. ...
Container shipping plays a pivotal role in global trade, and understanding the duration that vessels spend in ports is crucial for efficient voyage planning by shipping companies. However, these companies often rely solely on one-way communication for required arrival times provided by terminals. This reliance on fixed schedules can lead to vessels arriving punctually, only to face berths that are still occupied, resulting in unnecessary waiting times. Regrettably, limited attention has been given to these issues from the perspective of shipping companies. This study addresses this gap by focusing on the estimation of dwell times for container vessels at a terminal in the Port of Busan using various machine learning techniques. The estimations were compared against the terminal’s operational reference. To compile the dataset, a 41-month history of terminal berth schedules and vessel particulars data were utilized and preprocessed for effective training. Outliers were removed, and dimensions were reduced. Six regression machine learning algorithms, namely adaptive learning, gradient boosting, light gradient boosting, extreme gradient boosting, categorical boosting and random forest, were employed, and their parameters were fine-tuned for optimal performance on the validation dataset. The results indicated that all models exhibited superior performance compared to the terminal’s operating reference model.
... Full compliance of ships with the deceleration framework could result in reductions of 20%, 40% and 17% in CO 2 , SOx and NOx, respectively. Jia et al. [40] empirically Table 4. ...
... The International Maritime Organization (IMO), as the main regulatory body for international shipping, with the adoption of the OILPOL Convention in 1954, introduced environmental regulations in the shipping sector. More recently, the IMO has adopted mandatory operational and technical measures, and committed to controlling GHG emissions via technological improvements, operational performance indicators, and the use of alternative fuels [3,4]. ...
Environmental performance of ships is a critical factor in the shipping industry due to evolving climate change and the respective regulations imposed by authorities all over the world. As shipping moves towards digitization, a large amount of ships’ environmental performance-related data, collected during ships’ voyages, provide opportunities to develop and enhance data-driven performance models by using different machine learning algorithms. This paper introduces new indices of ships’ environmental performance using machine learning techniques. The new indices are produced by combining clustering algorithms as well as principal component analysis. Based on the analysis of the data (14 variables with operational and design characteristics), the ships are divided into four clusters based on the new suggested indices. These clusters categorize the ships according to their physical dimensions, operating region, and operational environmental efficiency, offering insight into the distinctive traits of each cluster.
... These results are consistent with the study on greening shipping from the cargo owners' perspective [110]. In [111], it was suggested that the IMO and the EU should consider policies aimed at forcing operators to adopt virtual arrival in shipping. However, the contrary results suggest that the commercial benefits (to cargo owners) of quick access to cargo outweigh the fuel savings benefits by several orders of magnitude. ...
The application of newly available technologies in the green maritime sector is difficult due to conflicting requirements and the inter-relation of different ecological, technological and economical parameters. The governments incentivize radical reductions in harmful emissions as an overall priority. If the politics do not change, the continuous implementation of stricter government regulations for reducing emissions will eventually result in the mandatory use of, what we currently consider, alternative fuels. Immediate application of radically different strategies would significantly increase the economic costs of maritime transport, thus jeopardizing its greatest benefit: the transport of massive quantities of freight at the lowest cost. Increased maritime transport costs would immediately disrupt the global economy, as seen recently during the COVID-19 pandemic. For this reason, the industry has shifted towards a gradual decrease in emissions through the implementation of “better” transitional solutions until alternative fuels eventually become low-cost fuels. Since this topic is very broad and interdisciplinary, our systematic overview gives insight into the state-of-the-art available technologies in green maritime transport with a focus on the following subjects: (i) alternative fuels; (ii) hybrid propulsion systems and hydrogen technologies; (iii) the benefits of digitalization in the maritime sector aimed at increasing vessel efficiency; (iv) hull drag reduction technologies; and (v) carbon capture technologies. This paper outlines the challenges, advantages and disadvantages of their implementation. The results of this analysis elucidate the current technologies’ readiness levels and their expected development over the coming years.
... These fuel-demand reduction measures could include a change in the contractual design explicitly banning the logistic practice ''steam fast, then wait,'' which incentivizes shipping companies to burn more fuel than necessary and thus emit up to 15% more globally scale. 42 Another significant fuel-saving potential lies in the fuel transition toward locally produced green fuels thus decreasing fuel trading volumes now accounting for 45% of global shipped trade by weight. 43 Furthermore, measures could be related to improvements in engine design, ship design, hydrodynamics, and slow steaming in general. ...
The shipping industry is a hard-to-abate sector in today's society. While past studies have looked at levels of carbon pricing, fuel savings, and the upscaling of green fuel availability separately, we combine these critical parameters for a green transition of the shipping industry to show what it takes to reach sectoral emissions reduction targets in line with the Paris Agreement. We utilize a least-cost optimization model drawing on data on, e.g., emissions with lifecycle elements and the costs of green fuel production.We find that reaching maritime reduction targets for a green transition requires high growth rates for green fuel availability, carbon pricing beyond 300EUR/tCO2eq, and at least 50% in fuel demand savings compared to today's demand projection for 2050. The results show the importance of immediate climate action if maritime emissions reduction goals are to be achieved.
... As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the split incentive could be viewed as more related to matters such as sailing speed, re-routing, and lay-up strategies. While shipowners consider the slow steaming practice to absorb the overcapacity of their fleet, charterers may intend higher speed for more cargo shipment per unit of time and to be the beneficiary of low fuel price and probable demurrage compensation in case of delay in berthing at ports [50,51]. ...
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted the way we do business and trade. As a result of the pandemic, a variety of stakeholders in the maritime sector have been adversely affected; nevertheless, they adapted successfully to the new circumstances and learned how to make the necessary compromises. The purpose of this study is to examine the status of ships' energy efficiency during the pandemic. It is hypothesized that the pandemic has strengthened barriers to ship energy efficiency, and shipping decarbonization has not been a priority for stakeholders throughout the pandemic. To examine this hypothesis, by conducting a literature review and utilizing the barrier models, the energy efficiency barriers were revisited through the lens of the COVID-19 pandemic. The established focus group assessed the impact of the pandemic on these barriers. The pandemic revealed the vulnerability of shipping's energy efficiency, and a majority of barriers were strengthened as a result. A number of factors have contributed to the marginal decarbonization of shipping during the pandemic period, including inadequate and lenient energy regulations (policy gap), economic crisis within shipping companies (low freight rates and a decline in charter markets), and extremely low fuel prices.
... Santos and Hilsdorf (2019) studied the impact of the truck appointment and what process, integrated with an electronic communication system can contribute to more sustainable operations (Hartman & Clott, 2012;Daamen & Vries, 2013). This system directly affects the port, as well as its surroundings (Aregall et al., 2018) or the cities close to it, avoiding the congestion of trucks on the roads and surroundings and contributing to the environment (Hou & Geerlings, 2016;Jia et al., 2017;Kuznetsov et al., 2015;Moura & Andrade, 2018). ...
Industry 4.0 (I4.0) is a reality in several business segments worldwide. Technologies (I4.0) collaborate to improve production processes, in manufacturing or services. The use of these technologies in port operations for container handling can assist in environmental management and allows the service system to be sustainable. This research analyzed the use of technologies from I4.0, applied in port handling operations of containers, to verify their impact on environmental management. Some ports of great international relevance were searched for data collection regarding the use of I4.0 technologies and environmental management (port sustainability). These data were analyzed to understand the relationship between those technologies and sustainability in logistics operations (green operation). The focus of this study was to analyze some container terminal operations of five ports, to assess the use of I4.0 technologies and their impact, or not, on sustainable environmental management. The method of carrying out the research was the application of an online questionnaire to those five Ports: Los Angeles (USA), Hamburg (Germany), Rotterdam (Netherlands), Singapore (Singapore) and Busan (South Korea) exclusively for container terminals. Public materials available on the websites of each port were also used. The questionnaire was developed by reviewing the literature on the topic (Digital Business-I4.0 and Sustainability-green operations). An online survey to collect information took place between September-2019 to June-2020, which was complemented with publicly accessible material on the internet. The data collected were treated statistically for analysis of the research information applied in the ports (mean, standard deviation, significance level, Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test, critical statistical value, correspondence analysis and relative frequency). Overall information was collected from 20 container terminals. Experts (managers and supervisors) responded to the online survey.
... To conclude this cluster, Jia et al. (2017) empirically assessed the possible reductions of fuel consumption and emissions by implementing a global Virtual Arrival (VA) policy using ship position data-based AIS data. VA is defined as "an operational process that involves an agreement to reduce a vessel's speed on a voyage to meet a Required Time of Arrival when there is a known delay at the discharge port" (INTER-TANKO, 2011). ...
To improve energy efficiency of ships, initiatives have been taken by the international and regional regulatory bodies, ship owners, shipping lines, and other involved stakeholders. While existing literature has investigated ship energy efficiency from different perspectives, a comprehensive review on measures, practices, policies, feasibility, and alternatives remains absent. This study presents a retrospective review of ship energy efficiency literature by utilizing a hybrid review method that combines bibliometric and content analysis approaches. For bibliometric analysis, the bibliometrix package in the R software was used in combination with the VOSviewer software. The outcomes of bibliometric analysis are the most ranked articles, journals, authors, and institutions related to ship energy efficiency research. The bibliographic coupling analysis identified five research clusters: (1) decarbonization and emission reduction measures, (2) speed management, (3) policy and regulations, (4) economic and organizational factors, and (5) alternative energy sources. Future research directions are proposed for each cluster.
... To conclude this cluster, Jia et al. (2017) empirically assessed the possible reductions of fuel consumption and emissions by implementing a global Virtual Arrival (VA) policy using ship position data-based AIS data. VA is defined as "an operational process that involves an agreement to reduce a vessel's speed on a voyage to meet a Required Time of Arrival when there is a known delay at the discharge port" (INTER-TANKO, 2011). ...
... This counterintuitive finding was attributed to charter party clauses, which required high service speeds. For voyage charters, Jia et al. (2017) advised ship managers and charterers to include virtual arrival clauses to allow for speed reduction and fuel savings in case of port congestion, but Poulsen and Sampson (2019) found oil cargo owners reluctant in this regard due to their commercial preferences for fast transits. Adland et al. (2017) studied time charter rates for bulk carriers and observed that energy inefficient, high-powered, fast vessels achieved time charter premiums in 2003-2008. ...
To mitigate climate change due to international shipping, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) requires shipowners and ship technical managers to improve the energy efficiency of ships’ operations. This paper studies how voyage planning and execution decisions affect energy efficiency and distinguishes between the commercial and nautical components of energy efficiency. Commercial decisions for voyage planning depend on dynamic market conditions and matter more for energy efficiency than nautical decisions do for voyage execution. The paper identifies the people involved in decision-making processes and advances the energy-efficiency literature by revealing the highly networked nature of agency for energy efficiency. The IMO’s current energy efficiency regulations fail to distinguish between the commercial and nautical aspects of energy efficiency, which limits the ability to mitigate climate change through regulatory measures. Policymakers should expand their regulatory focus beyond shipowners and technical managers to cargo owners to improve energy efficiency and reduce maritime transport emissions.
This paper positions possibilities for human geographies of the sea. The growing volume of work under this banner has been largely qualitative in its approach, reflecting, in turn, the questions posed by oceanic scholars. These questions necessitate corresponding methods. Whilst this is not necessarily a problem, and the current corpus of work has offered many significant contributions, in making sense of the human dimensions of maritime worlds, other questions—and methods—may generate knowledge that is useful within this remit of work. This paper considers the place of quantitative approaches in posing lines of enquiry about shipping, one of the prominent areas of concern under the banner of ‘human geographies of the seas’. There is longstanding work in transport geographies concerned with shipping, logistics, freight movement and global connections, which embraces quantitative methods which could be bridged to ask fresh questions about oceanic spatial phenomena past and present. This paper reviews the state of the art of human geographies of the sea and transport geographies and navigates how the former field may be stimulated by some of the interests of the latter and a broader range of questions about society‐sea‐space relations. The paper focuses on Automatic Identification Systems (or AIS) as a potentially useful tool for connecting debates, and deepening spatial understandings of the seas and shipping beyond current scholarship. To advance the argument the example of shipping layups is used to illustrate or rather, position, the point.
Facing intensified interport competition in the global container shipping market, an increasing number of ports choose to offer berthing priority for carriers to increase their attractiveness. This study is the first to theoretically analyze the efficiency impacts of such prioritization. Specifically, this study models the steady-state dynamics for each terminal in a biterminal port as a prioritized queuing system. We explore the equilibrated shipping flow distribution and resulting total system cost (i.e., bunker consumption cost and waiting time cost) with and without priority provision, along with their major analytical properties. Then, we examine the “second-order” effects of these priority schemes on just-in-time (JIT) arrivals, an increasingly popular green port management tool. Specifically, we investigate how the equilibrium state associated with JIT arrivals could change with priority berthing. These analyses generate some interesting results, including (1) the total system cost increases or remains unchanged when a priority scheme is implemented under a symmetric port with equal service capacities for both terminals; (2) under the asymmetric biterminal case, however, it is also possible that berth prioritization could reduce the total system cost, and such phenomenon occurs only if the terminal which offers prioritization owns larger service capacity; (3) the results indicate that the “price of prioritization” could reach [Formula: see text] in port operation when the berth loading is heavy, implying that priority provision may significantly harm the operational efficiency; and (4) lastly, priority provision has a negative second-order effect on JIT strategies in a symmetric port, and such negative effect may neutralize the positive ones. Those theoretical results are validated by numerical experiments, and some of them are also supported by empirical data. The results provide important practical implications for the decision making of the port (or terminal) agencies.
Funding: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 72371143 and 72188101].
Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2022.0411 .
What are the legal implications of operational efficiency, and how can the inefficient artefacts of shipping contracts
be phased out while driving uptake of specific clauses that encourage the transparency, cooperation, and benefit
sharing that allow for more efficient operation of ships?
This paper explores this question as part of a series that examines the undervalued opportunity presented
by operational efficiencies to reduce shipping emissions in the short term and pave the way for long-term
decarbonisation solutions. The learnings presented here have emerged from a series of meetings and workshops
gathering perspectives from experts across the maritime value chain—shipowners, operators, charterers, ports, and
NGOs—as part of the Short Term Actions Taskforce. Other papers in the series provide an overview of the issue, and
dive deeper into the identified solutions and enablers: the role of data, and the role of pilots.
Service disruption hurts the reliability of liner shipping schedules and the lack of high-quality data impedes research on schedule recovery in liner shipping. With the support of the Automatic Identification System (AIS), a satellite-based tracking system acquiring real-time records of vessels’ navigation trajectories worldwide, this study develops a novel data-driven framework to uncover the vessel schedule disruption recovery behavior (i.e., port-skipping). The framework consists of a series of independent yet closely related algorithms, which are in turn tasked with screening port calls, estimating closed-loop routes, measuring similarity between different routes, and identifying port-skipping behavior, respectively. Compared with partial proprietary data from the shipping industry and port authorities, the identification results can provide transparent datasets with wide applications and much easier access publicly. The developed data-driven framework is implemented with vessel trajectory information of around 2,000 container vessels worldwide from January 2016 to December 2020, and the results prove its validity and practical value for liner shipping scheduling management.
Fleet productivity is an important element in shipping economics, a defining factor in the asset’s profitability, and a key driver of the emission footprint of the industry. This paper analyzes the productivity of bulk vessels in a multi-dimensional framework by utilizing over 800,000 voyages data which were carried out by 17,764 vessels over a 7-year horizon and was derived from the Automated Identification System. An examination of the underlying factors driving transportation output provides further understanding of how the operational behaviours impact vessel productivity. The insights from this research have important implications for policy making in investment, operational enhancement, and emission reduction.
The International Maritime Organization has set a goal to achieve a 50% reduction of total annual greenhouse gas emission related to the international shipping by 2050 compared to the 2008 baseline emissions. Malaysia government has taken an initiative to investigate the assessment (cost-effectiveness) of this International Maritime Organization's short-term measure on Malaysian-registered domestic ships although this measure is only for international merchant ship. To achieve this, this paper collected the ship's data from the shipowners from 25 sample ships. Engine power limitation is the most cost-effective option, but low power limits can lead to substantially increased sailing times. Based on cost-efficiency analysis, it creates for the purpose of compliance with the operational carbon intensity indicator. It found that even if it is possible to bring an asset back into service, it may not be possible to do so in a manner that generates a profit or complies with applicable regulations. In these situations, it may be more prudent to scrap the asset rather than run the risk of having it become a stranded asset. This is especially true for older tankers. Alternatives with lengthy payback periods are not desirable for the domestic tanker fleet that is already in operation.
Energy supply and environmental capacity are important material foundations for social and economic development and constraints for scientific and sustainable development, and with achieving the strategic goals of carbon peak and carbon neutral at an early date, too. Therefore, the international community generally regards energy-economic- environment (3E) as a necessary research direction. This paper studies the relationship among effective energy utilization, economic growth protection and ecological environment protection by establishing the contribution rate model of energy consumption factors to economic GDP growth. At the same time, this paper puts forward the government needs to use carbon trading market, carbon tax, such as low carbon management mechanism based on the Pareto Optimality of carbon trading market, prompts the excess money of the country or the region back to actively invest in low-carbon production, lets more energy companies to clean energy and low carbon production transformation, and helps to achieve the goal of regional energy industry carbon neutral.
Port congestion is an obstacle to smooth energy supply chain management. This research identifies and quantifies the economic implications of congestion in a real-time framework, in which the temporal and geospatial port congestion status is analysed using the vessel tracking information captured by satellites, the Automatic Identification System. A Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) algorithm is proposed to automatically identify vessel clusters at ports and quantify port turnaround time, and thus real-time port congestion status. A framework is then outlined to analyze the economic implications of congestion for various stakeholders in the system. A case study is conducted on Indian LPG ports, where congestion frequently occurs. The analysis has important implications for the industrial participants engaged in energy transportation to assess the impact, and for policymakers in a better network design.
The results of an analysis to minimize the energy usage of the Middle East Oil Tankage & Pipelines Company (MIDTAP) marine port in Alexandria, Egypt are presented in this paper. The project takes a comprehensive approach to data collection from the MIDTAP marine port’s maintenance department, an energy analysis, and the development of a building simulation model. Many energy-saving measures have been found during the energy audit, including replacing existing florescent lights with LED lamps and a lighting control system, as well as reflecting solar radiation with window film. The building energy model was created with DesignBuilder and then calibrated based on the field observations and measurements. Several energy management options were assessed using the calibrated model, based on a calculation of simulation and real electricity usage in KWh for the year 2020. According to the findings, energy demand can be cut by up to 61.7 percent.
To address the operational inefficiency in maritime cargo transport caused by the traditional Sail Fast Then Wait (SFTW) practice, we propose a systemic optimization approach that organizes vessels sailing towards the same port so that their arrival at the anchorage is synchronized with the capacity of the port to receive vessels at berth from the anchorage. A solution procedure with a quadratic program is implemented and tested using a sample of about 14,000 voyages from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data in 2018. From the analysis, the proposed approach produces 9% of fuel savings per voyage, on average, while minimizing the demand–supply imbalance levels at the ports. The proposed approach also keeps the arrival order of vessels at ports as if they had sailed with SFTW practice, which is necessary so as to encourage agreement on the proposed approach from the stakeholders in the maritime industry.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has recently adopted short-term measures introducing technical standards for existing ships and a labeling system reflecting their operational carbon intensity. This paper investigates the relevant techno-economic implications from a shipowner's perspective and estimates the effect of six compliance options on six sample containerships. The study applies a new evidence-based bottom-up approach, and the results show that compliance, when possible, is not straightforward and costly. Engine power limitation is the most cost-effective option, but low power limits can lead to substantially increased sailing times (up to 793.92 h/year), which can be prohibitive. The option favors older ships with oversized engines as its effectiveness is mainly determined by the main engine load profile. In general, the effectiveness of the measures is not without limits, particularly concerning older ships and those that have already installed several options. Solutions such as market-based measures and alternative fuels, classed by IMO as medium- and long-term measures, must be considered soon.
This work investigates different methodologies for the prediction of uncertainties related to ship fuel consumption along a specific route. Ensemble weather forecasts are adopted to estimate the uncertainties associated with the environmental conditions the ship is asked to face. A brute-force approach, consisting in repeating the fuel consumption predictions for each member of the ensemble, is compared with probabilistic approaches in which the wave parameters are modelled according to truncated-normal and lognormal distributions, as well as with a more classical first-order second-moment method. Finally, the results obtained by the different approaches for the North Atlantic passage of a containership are compared, showing reasonable agreement, with the actual fuel consumption falling within the 90% prediction range for all methods.
Download available at: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10136118.
Given the increasing pressure for emission reduction through the Paris Agreement and the International Maritime Organisation’s emission reduction ambition set in 2018, energy performance in shipping is more important than ever. Several studies have identified information barriers lead to uncertainty around energy efficiency and vessel performance. This prevents more efficient vessels from being rewarded and discourages the uptake of energy efficiency technologies and operational measures. Poor in-service data quality, suboptimal performance modelling and information asymmetry between stakeholders regarding vessel performance result in challenging decision-making when choosing energy efficiency technologies, operational measures or when fixing a vessel for a charter. There is very little literature focused on investigating decision-making practices in relation to vessel and technology performance to expose specific problems related to information use.
This work explores these problems and evaluates the effect of information related shortcomings in vessel efficiency on decision-making in deep sea cargo shipping. A mixed-methods approach is proposed, starting with an exploratory case study. The aim is to understand the use of information and identify information asymmetries encountered by all parties involved when making decisions on fixtures or energy efficiency technology selection. The insights from the case study are used to develop a probabilistic techno-economic model which quantifies uncertainties arising from identified information asymmetries and the impact they have on different stakeholders. A game theoretic frame-
work is used as a basis for the model. As a third step, solutions to reduce uncertainty are tested. These solutions are focused on increasing transparency between stakeholders and are shown to provide a mutually beneficial scenario for both charterers and owners. The novel model developed can be used as a tool to evaluate risk stemming from stakeholder behaviour and the impact this has on operating profit for owners and charterers based on assumptions related to information flow and use. The work is aimed towards creating an evidence base for targeted commercial tools and policy designed to promote and reward vessel efficiency by bridging the information gap between technical
and commercial sides of the shipping industry.
The shipping industry is associated with approximately three quarters of all world trade. In recent years, the sustainability of shipping has become a public concern, and various emissions control regulations to reduce pollutants and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships have been proposed and implemented globally. These regulations aim to drive the shipping industry in a low-carbon and low-pollutant direction by motivating it to switch to more efficient fuel types and reduce energy consumption. At the same time, the cyclical downturn of the world economy and high bunker prices make it necessary and urgent for the shipping industry to operate in a more cost-effective way while still satisfying global trade demand. As bunker fuel bunker (e.g., heavy fuel oil [HFO], liquified natural gas [LNG]) consumption is the main source of emissions and bunker fuel costs account for a large proportion of operating costs, shipping companies are making unprecedented efforts to optimize ship energy efficiency. It is widely accepted that the key to improving the energy efficiency of ships is the development of accurate models to predict ship fuel consumption rates under different scenarios. In this study, ship fuel consumption prediction models presented in the literature (including the academic literature and technical reports as a typical type of “grey literature”) are reviewed and compared, and models that optimize ship operations based on fuel consumption prediction results are also presented and discussed. Current research challenges and promising research questions on ship performance monitoring and operational optimization are identified.
We use classification methods from machine learning to predict the destination of global crude oil exports by utilising micro-level crude oil shipment data that incorporates attributes related to the contract, cargo specifications, vessel specifications and macroeconomic conditions. The results show that micro-level information about the oil shipment such as quality and cargo size dominates in the destination prediction. We contribute to the academic literature by providing the first machine learning application to oil shipment data, and by providing new knowledge on the determinants of global crude oil flows. The machine-learning models used to predict the importing country can reach an accuracy of above 71% for the major oil exporting countries based on out-of-sample tests and outperform both naive models and discrete regression models.
Dynamic speed choice in real-life seaway and market conditions, when subject to technical and contractual constraints, is a highly complex problem. In this paper, we investigate dynamic speed choice using a large dataset of average sailing speeds for nearly 18,000 individual voyages as calculated from Automated Identification System (AIS) data. Using a set of multiple regression models, we expand the traditional analysis of speed determinants, from only macroeconomic variables to also include proxies for organizational constraints, operator quality, trading pattern, loading conditions, technical constraints and ship-specific variables. We find that owners do not appear to adjust vessel speeds based on freight market conditions and fuel prices, as argued in classical maritime economic theory. Instead, vessel-specific variables such as age and design speed, as well as operational factors such as loading conditions, show some explanatory power. The poor model fit may be due to factors outside our model, such as weather conditions and contractual limitations. From a policy point of view, the results actually suggest that higher fuel prices do not contribute to a reduction in vessel speeds and emissions.
Foreword by the Secretary-General,Mr Koji Sekimizu
In recognition of the magnitude of the climate change challenge and the importance of global action to address it, we, at IMO , for some time now, have been energetically pursuing the development and implementation of measures to address greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping.
According to current estimates presented in this Third IMO GHG Study 2014, international shipping emitted 796 million tonnes of CO2 in 2012, which accounts for no more than about 2.2% of the total emission volume for that year. By contrast, in 2007, before the global economic downturn, international shipping is estimated to have emitted 885 million tonnes of CO2, which represented 2.8% of the global emissions of CO2 for that year. These percentages are all the more significant when considering that shipping is the principal carrier of world trade, carrying as much as 90% by volume and therefore providing a vital service to global economic development and prosperity.
In 2011, IMO adopted a suite of technical and operational measures which together provide an energy efficiency framework for ships. These mandatory measures entered into force as a ‘package’ on 1 January 2013, under Annex VI of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (the MARPOL Convention). These measures address ship types responsible for approximately 85% of CO2 emissions from international shipping and, together, they represent the first-ever, mandatory global regime for CO2 emission reduction in an entire industry sector.
Without reference to the findings of this Third IMO GHG Study 2014, it would be extremely difficult for IMO to demonstrate the steady and ongoing improvement in ships’ energy efficiencies resulting from the global introduction of the mandatory technical and operational measures. Furthermore, the study findings demonstrate that IMO is best placed, as the competent global regulatory body, to continue to develop both an authoritative and robust greenhouse gas emissions control regime that is relevant for international shipping while also matching overall expectations for climate change abatement.
That said, the mid-range forecasted scenarios presented in this Third IMO GHG Study 2014 show that, by 2050, CO2 emissions from international shipping could grow by between 50% and 250%, depending on future economic growth and energy developments. Therefore, if we are to succeed in further enhancing the sector’s energy efficiency, which is already the most energy-efficient mode of mass transport of cargo, the international community must deliver realistic and pragmatic solutions, both from a technical standpoint and a political perspective. I believe that 2015 will be a crucial year for progress on difficult and complex matters in the world’s climate change negotiations, culminating in the international conference to be convened in Paris in December 2015, which should identify the way forward for all sectors. IMO will bring the findings of the Study to the attention of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) and I am confident that, in the light of the progress made by the Organization, both in gathering relevant information and in supporting implementation of the package of mandatory technical and operational measures, we have a positive message to convey to the global community.
The Study constitutes, without any doubt, a significant scientific work. It was undertaken on a global scale by a consortium of world-renowned scientific experts under the auspices of IMO, and I would like to congratulate all the experts involved for the comprehensive and rigorous research work they carried out.
On behalf of the Organization, I also applaud and extend my wholehearted thanks to the Steering Committee of twenty IMO Member Governments for their dedication and support in overseeing this important Study for the Organization, that is, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Finland, India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan, Malaysia, the Marshall Islands, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, South Africa, Uganda, the United Kingdom and the United States. I would also like to express profound appreciation to the Governments of Australia, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom and to the European Commission for their financial contributions, without which the Study would not have been possible.
I trust that the Third IMO GHG Study 2014 will become the paramount reference for the Organization’s Marine Environment Protection Committee as it continues its consideration of further appropriate measures as part of a robust regime to regulate international shipping emissions at the global level.
Energy efficiency is a key policy strategy to meet some of the challenges being faced today and to plan for a sustainable future. Numerous empirical studies in various sectors suggest that there are cost-effective measures that are available but not always implemented due to existence of barriers to energy efficiency. Several cost-effective energy efficient options (technologies for new and existing ships and operations) have also been identified for improving energy efficiency of ships. This paper is one of the first to empirically investigate barriers to energy efficiency in the shipping industry using a novel framework and multidisciplinary methods to gauge implementation of cost-effective measures, perception on barriers and observations of barriers. It draws on findings of a survey conducted of shipping companies, content analysis of shipping contracts and analysis of energy efficiency data. Initial results from these methods suggest the existence of the principal agent problem and other market failures and barriers that have also been suggested in other sectors and industries. Given this finding, policies to improve implementation of energy efficiency in shipping need to be carefully considered to improve their efficacy and avoid unintended consequences.
According to a range of assessments, there exists a large cost-effective potential to increase energy efficiency in shipping through reduced speed at sea enabled by shorter time in port. This means that the energy needed can be reduced whilst maintaining the same transport service. However, the fact that a large cost-effective potential has been identified that is not being harnessed by decision-makers in practice suggests that there is more to this potential to understand. In this paper, the possibilities for increasing energy efficiency by reducing waiting time in port are explored and problematised through a case study of a short sea bulk shipping company transporting dry bulk goods mainly in the North and Baltic seas. Operational data from two ships in the company’s fleet for one year showed that the ships spent more than 40% of their time in ports and that half of the time in port was not pro- ductive. The two most important reasons for the large share of unproductive time were that ports were closed on nights and weekends and that ships arrived too early before the stevedores were ready to load or unload the cargo. Reducing all of the unproductive time may be difficult, but the results also show that even a conservative estimate of one to four hours of reduced time per port call would lead to a reduction in energy use of 2– 8%. From in-depth interviews with employees of the shipping company, ports and ship agencies, a complex picture is painted when attempting to understand how this potential arises. Aspects such as a lack of effective ship-shore-port communication, little time for ship operators, an absence of means for accurately predicting energy use of voyages as a function of speed, perceived risk of arriving too late, and relationships with third-party technical management may all play a role.
Aviation is one of the fastest growing industries as well as transportation modes in the world. Global aviation contrib-utes about 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions and supports 8% of the world economic activity in terms of GDP. With the phenomenal growth in air trafficking by the national and international airliners the total carbon space available for flying is getting progressively diminished and the consequential emission levels are also becoming alarming over passage of time. The paper describes the concept of evolution of Green Transport system with focus on manufacturing of green aircraft and sustainable green marketing involving green supply chain. This entails introduction of New and innovative technologies, including aircraft designing, improving operational efficiency, air traffic control & monitoring etc; combined with emission mitigation efforts towards sustainable growth of the industry, can make enormous im-provements in emission control and reduction in a planned and system-based manner. These integrated approaches are proposed to be used to harmonize the systems and processes that can essentially constitute the suggested framework of the Green Aviation Transport system. The paper, inter alia, discusses various conceptual, strategic, technological and economic and environmental dimensions of the Green Aviation transport system with focus on creating new Green Marketing opportunities for the aviation industry in future.
We present geographically resolved global inventories of nitrogen and sulfur emissions from international maritime transport for use in global atmospheric models. Current inventories of globally resolved sources of natural and anthropogenic emissions do not include the significant contribution of SO2 or NOx from oceangoing ships [Benkovitz et al., 1996]. We estimate the global inventory of ship emissions, using current emission test data for ships [Carlton et al., 1995] and a fuel-based approach similar to that used for automobile inventories [Singer and Harley, 1996]. This study estimates the 1993 global annual NOx and SO2 emissions from ships to be 3.08 teragrams (Tg, or 1012g) as N and 4.24 Tg S, respectively. Nitrogen emissions from ships are shown to account for more than 14% of all nitrogen emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and sulfur emissions exceed 5% of sulfur emitted by all fuel combustion sources including coal. Ship sulfur emissions correspond to about 20% of biogenic dimethylsulfide (DMS) emissions. In regions of the Northern Hemisphere, annual sulfur emissions from ships can be of the same order of magnitude as estimates of the annual flux of DMS [Chin et al., 1996]. Monthly inventories of ship sulfur and nitrogen emissions presented in this paper are geographically characterized on a 2°×2° resolution. Temporal and spatial characteristics of the inventory are presented. Uncertainty in inventory estimates is assessed: the fifth and ninety-fifth percentile values for global nitrogen emissions are 2.66 Tg N and 4.00 Tg N, respectively; the fifth and ninety-fifth percentile values for sulfur emissions are 3.29 Tg S and 5.61 Tg S, respectively. We suggest that these inventories, available via the Ship Emissions Assessment (SEA) web site, be used in models along with the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) inventories for land-based anthropogenic emissions and modeled with ocean-biogenic inventories for DMS.
The atmosphere overlying the ocean is very sensitive-physically, chemically and climatically-to air pollution. Given that clouds over the ocean are of great climatic significance, and that sulphate aerosols seem to be an important control on marine cloud formation, anthropogenic inputs of sulphate to the marine atmosphere could exert an important influence on climate. Recently, sulphur emissions from fossil fuel burning by international shipping have been geographically characterized, indicating that ship sulphur emissions nearly equal the natural sulphur flux from ocean to atmosphere in many areas. Here we use a global chemical transport model to show that these ship emissions can be a dominant contributor to atmospheric sulphur dioxide concentrations over much of the world's oceans and in several coastal regions. The ship emissions also contribute significantly to atmospheric non-seasalt sulphate concentrations over Northern Hemisphere ocean regions and parts of the Southern Pacific Ocean, and indirect radiative forcing due to ship-emitted particulate matter (sulphate plus organic material) is estimated to contribute a substantial fraction to the anthropogenic perturbation of the Earth's radiation budget. The quantification of emissions from international shipping forces a re-evaluation of our present understanding of sulphur cycling and radiative forcing over the ocean.
Greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping are an increasing concern. The paper evaluates whether vessel speed reduction can be a potentially cost-effective CO2 mitigation option for ships calling on US ports. By applying a profit-maximizing equation to estimate route-specific, economically-efficient speeds, we explore policy impacts of a fuel tax and a speed reduction mandate on CO2 emissions. The profit-maximizing function incorporates opportunity costs associated with speed reduction that go unobserved in more traditional marginal abatement cost analyses. We find that a fuel tax of about 30 and $200 per ton CO2 abated, depending on how the fleet responds to a speed reduction mandate.
Standard ocean shipping contracts stipulate that a chartered vessel must sail at ‘utmost despatch’, with no consideration for the availability of berths at the destination port. The berthing policies used at many ports, which admit vessels on a first-come, first-served basis, provide an additional incentive for the master to sail at full speed. These legacy contracts and berthing policies constitute a major driver of harbour congestion and marine fuel consumption, with adverse economic, safety, and environmental consequences. We propose a methodology to evaluate the potential benefits of new berthing policies and ocean shipping contracts. Given the importance of stochasticity on the performance of maritime transport systems, and the need to represent the efficient allocation of terminal resources, we have chosen a hybrid simulation-optimization approach. Our discrete event simulation model represents vessels and their principal economic and physical characteristics, the spatial layout of the terminal, performance of the land-side equipment, contractual agreements and associated penalties, and berthing policies. The proposed optimization model – a substantial extension of the traditional berth assignment problem – represents the logic of the terminal planner. The simulation program solves multiple instances of the optimization model successively in order to represent the progression of planning activities at the terminal.
A method is presented for the evaluation of the exhaust emissions of marine traffic, based on the messages provided by the Automatic Identification System (AIS), which enable the identification and location determination of ships. The use of the AIS data enables the positioning of ship emissions with a high spatial resolution, which is limited only by the inaccuracies of the Global Positioning System (typically a few metres) that is used in vessel navigation. The emissions are computed based on the relationship of the instantaneous speed to the design speed, and these computations also take into account the detailed technical information of the ships' engines. The modelling of emissions is also based on a few basic equations of ship design, including the modelling of the propelling power of each vessel in terms of its speed. We have also investigated the effect of waves on the consumption of fuel, and on the emissions to the atmosphere. The predictions of fuel consumption were compared with the actual values obtained from the shipowners. For a RoPax vessel, the predicted and reported values of fuel consumption agreed within an accuracy of 6%. According to the data analysis and model computations, the emissions of NOx, SOx and CO2 originating from ships in the Baltic Sea in 2007 were in total 400 kt, 138 kt and 19 Mt, respectively. A breakdown of emissions by flag state, ship's type and year of construction is also presented. The modelling system can be used as a decision support tool in the case of issues concerning, e.g., health effects caused by shipping emissions, the construction of emission-based fairway dues systems or emissions trading. The computation of emissions can also be automated, which will save resources in constructing emission inventories. Both the methodologies and the emission computation program can be applied in any sea region in the world, provided that the AIS data from that specific region are available.
Epidemiological studies consistently link ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM) to negative health impacts, including asthma, heart attacks, hospital admissions, and premature mortality. We model ambient PM concentrations from oceangoing ships using two geospatial emissions inventories and two global aerosol models. We estimate global and regional mortalities by applying ambient PM increases due to ships to cardiopulmonary and lung cancer concentration-risk functions and population models. Our results indicate that shipping-related PM emissions are responsible for approximately 60,000 cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths annually, with most deaths occurring near coastlines in Europe, East Asia, and South Asia. Under current regulation and with the expected growth in shipping activity, we estimate that annual mortalities could increase by 40% by 2012.
Economic theory suggests that the use of more expensive low-sulphur fuel within an Emission Control Area (ECA) should result in lower vessel speeds. The objective of this paper is to investigate empirically, for the first time, whether the introduction of an ECA affects vessel speeds. We utilize a dataset of observed vessel speeds derived from the Automated Information System (AIS) for nearly 7000 ECA boundary crossings over a three-year period. Our results suggest that introducing stricter sulphur regulations inside the North Sea ECA from 1. January 2015 did not affect vessel speeds once changes in macroeconomic conditions are accounted for.
The objective of this paper is to determine the drivers behind the utilization of a vessel’s cargo-carrying capacity on individual voyages. Based on maritime economic theory we propose that a vessel’s capacity utilization - defined as the ratio of cargo size divided by DWT - should be positively correlated with freight rates, as poor market conditions will force vessels to compete for lower-than-optimal stem sizes. Furthermore, we propose that capacity utilization is dependent on the distance sailed, the fuel price and the value of the cargo. Using a unique data set sourced from port agent lineup reports and covering nearly 10,000 individual shipments of iron ore from Brazil between 2009 and 2014 we estimate a multiple regression model consisting of macroeconomic, route-specific and vessel-specific determinants. Our empirical results suggest that vessel-specific determinants (DWT) dominate the impact of general market conditions, with smaller vessels typically having lower capacity utilization. The impact of freight market conditions conforms to our a priori expectations. Our findings and modeling approach contributes to maritime environmental policymaking by enabling more accurate bottom-up estimation of emissions. The research is also crucial for improved modeling of real vessel earnings and tonne-mile demand based on observations of global ship movements from AIS data.
The time charter market for ships represents a classical example of the principal-agent problem, where shipowners can opt to invest in energy efficient ships, yet any savings in fuel expenditures accrue to the charterers. In a competitive and efficient market, ships that have more fuel-efficient designs should, all else equal, obtain a rate premium to reflect the fuel savings. In this paper we investigate empirically the determinants of timecharter rates using a comprehensive panel data set of over 9100 timecharter fixtures for bulk carriers above 40,000 DWT between January 2001 and January 2016. We test for the presence of an energy efficiency premium using four different definitions of efficiency, while controlling for key macro, ship-specific, and contract-specific variables. Our findings suggest that the “market rate” for a standardised vessel dominates in terms of explanatory power, but that vessel age, fuel prices, place of delivery and DWT also are significant determinants across sizes. We show that the earlier findings on the energy efficiency premium in the literature are not robust when expanding the sample in time and vessel size. Using a substantially longer sample across an entire market cycle, we show that only 14–27% of fuel savings are reflected in a higher rate during normal market conditions, while the sign of the relationship flips during market “booms” such that energy inefficient vessels attract a premium. We introduce several explanations as to why there is an apparent market failure and suggest policy measures that could address this issue.
This study presents external costs and eco-efficiency parameters associated to exhaust emissions in Las Palmas Port. Emission assessment is based on a vessel emissions inventory obtained from the full bottom-up Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model and messages transmitted by the Automatic Identification System over 2011. External costs are estimated based on a top-down approach. Results are combined with port operations profiles resulting in eco-efficiency performance towards economic and environmental concerns in Las Palmas Port. Results could also support the valuation of instruments to abate emissions in crowded port-cities that as Las Palmas, host a large population of residents and visitors.
This paper assesses cost as a function of abatement options in maritime emission control areas (ECA). The first regulation of air pollutions from ships which came into effect in the late 1990s was not strict and could easily be met. However the present requirement (2015) for reduction of Sulfur content for all vessels, in combination with the required reduction of nitrogen and carbon emissions for new-built vessels, is an economic and technical challenge for the shipping industry. Additional complexity is added by the fact that the strictest nitrogen regulations are applicable only for new-built vessels from 2016 onwards which shall enter US or Canadian waters. This study indicates that there is no single answer to what is the best abatement option, but rather that the best option will be a function of engine size, annual fuel consumption in the ECA and the foreseen future fuel prices. However a low oil price, favors the options with the lowest capex, i.e. Marine Gas Oil (MGO) or Light Fuel Oil (LFO), while a high oil price makes the solutions which requires higher capex (investments) more attractive.
Exhaust emissions cause air pollution and climate change. The exhausts of shipboard fuel combustion are equally damaging particularly, so close to the environmentally sensitive mainland and island coasts, as well as at ports due to their urbanized character. This paper estimates, for the first time, exhaust pollutants related to cruise and ferry operations in Las Palmas Port and, in an island context. Emission assessment is based on a full bottom-up model and messages transmitted by the Automatic Identification System during 2011. Results are described as a breakdown of NOx, SOx, PM2.5, CO and CO2, according to ship classes, operative type and time, providing valuable information to environmental policy makers in port-city areas and islands under similar conditions. It is generally concluded that vessel traffic and passenger shipping in particular are a source of air pollution in Las Palmas Port. Emission maps confirm location of hot spots in quays assigned for cruise and ferry operations. Policy recommendations encourage regular monitoring of exhaust emissions and market-based incentives supported by details on polluting and operative profiles. On the other hand, feasibility studies are suggested for automated mooring, LNG bunkering facilities and also shore-side energy services, prioritizing berthing of shipping sectors (or sub-sectors) with the highest share of exhaust emissions once their local effects have been confirmed by a dispersion, exposure and impact assessment.
International shipping accounts for 2.7% of worldwide CO2 emissions, and measures to curb future emissions growth are sought with a high sense of urgency. With the increased quest for greener shipping, reducing the speed of ships has obtained an increased role as one of the measures to be applied toward that end. Already speed has been important for economic reasons, as it is a key determinant of fuel cost, a significant component of the operating cost of ships. Moreover, speed is an important parameter of the overall logistical operation of a shipping company and of the overall supply chain and may directly or indirectly impact fleet size, ship size, cargo inventory costs and shippers’ balance sheets. Changes in ship speed may also induce modal shifts, if cargo can choose other modes because they are faster. However, as emissions are directly proportional to fuel consumed, speed is also very much connected with the environmental dimension of shipping. So when shipping markets are in a depressed state and “slow-steaming” is the prevalent practice for economic reasons, an important side benefit is reduced emissions. In fact there are many indications that this practice, very much applied these days, will be the norm in the future. This paper presents a survey of speed models in maritime transportation, that is, models in which speed is one of the decision variables. A taxonomy of such models is also presented, according to a set of parameters.
Ship Resistance and Propulsion is dedicated to providing a comprehensive and modern scientific approach to evaluating ship resistance and propulsion. This book, written by experts in the field, includes the latest developments from applied research, including those in experimental and CFD techniques, and provides guidance for the practical estimation of ship propulsive power for a range of ship types. A large number of fully worked examples are included to illustrate applications of the data and powering methodologies; these include cargo and container ships, tankers and bulk carriers, ferries, warships, patrol craft, work boats, planing craft and yachts. The book is aimed at a broad readership including practising naval architects and marine engineers, seagoing officers, small craft designers, undergraduate and postgraduate degree students. It should also appeal to others involved in transportation, transport efficiency and eco-logistics who need to carry out reliable estimates of ship power requirements. © Anthony F. Molland, Stephen R. Turnock, and Dominic A. Hudson 2011.
A new exhaust emission inventory of ocean-going vessels (OGVs) was compiled for Hong Kong by using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data for the first time to determine typical main engine load factors, through vessel speed and operation mode characterization. It was found that in 2007, container vessel was the top emitting vessel type, contributing 9,886, 11,480, 1,173, 521 and 1166 tonnes of SO2, NOx, PM10, VOC and CO, respectively, or about 80%–82% of the emissions. The top five, which also included ocean cruise, oil tanker, conventional cargo vessel and dry bulk carrier, accounted for about 98% of emissions. Emission maps, which add a new spatial dimension to the inventory, show the key emission hot spots in Hong Kong and suggest that a significant portion of emissions were emitted at berth. Scientific evidence about the scale and distribution of ship emissions has contributed in raising public awareness and facilitating stakeholder engagement about the issue. Fair Winds Charter, the world's first industry-led voluntary emissions reduction initiative, is a perfect example of how careful scientific research can be used in public engagement and policy deliberation to help drive voluntary industry actions and then government proposals to control and regulate marine emissions in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta region.
A Techno-economic, Environmental and Risk Analysis (TERA) computational method has been developed for marine propulsion systems. The method comprises several numerical models which simulate the life cycle operation of marine gas turbines installed on marine vessels. Using a system-of-systems approach, the effect of operational profile can be taken into consideration in the assessment of a novel prime mover. Stochastic estimates of the powerplant’s life cycle net present cost are generated. The ship performance model plays a central role in the TERA method. This is an integrated virtual marine vessel operating environment that allows the calculation of engine performance and exhaust emissions (nitric oxide (NOx), carbon monoxide CO, carbon dioxide (CO2) and unburned hydrocarbon (UHC)) for a given trip. The life of the gas turbine is assessed through a creep-life prediction method, which plays a significant role on the maintenance cost calculation in the economic model. The economic model predicts net present cost over the operating life of the vessel using stochastic analysis of the earning capacity of the ship powered by the chosen prime mover. The TERA simulation of a 25 MW marine gas turbine powering a RoPax fast ferry in an integrated full electric propulsion system is presented as an illustration of the method. The example includes aspects of the systemic analysis of engine and ship performance, accompanied by environmental effect and engine life prediction, coupled with an economic feasibility stochastic study of the selected propulsion system under several journey and economic scenarios.
Marine propellers are typically designed to achieve optimal performance at a single or a few design points. It is well understood that the performance of marine propulsion systems decays at off-design conditions, where the system operates for the majority of its life, where fuel consumption rates are high and the system as a whole operates at lower efficiencies. This paper presents a novel integrated design methodology that considers the propeller, prime mover, and vessel as one integrated system, and considers the probabilistic operational profile of the vessel, to minimize lifetime fuel consumption. The proposed design methodology represents a new approach to evaluate the tradeoffs between different design objectives and constraints by considering the system performance characteristics along with probability of occurrence, and hence allows for global optimization of the propeller geometry. Results are shown for a pair of fixed-pitch propellers designed for a twin-screw naval combatant craft. System performance for a design obtained using the proposed methodology is compared with designs obtained using traditional point-based design approaches. This methodology can be easily extended to investigate the effects of variations in resistance, operational profile or additional performance criteria, such as safety during extreme operations, lifetime carbon emission, and life cycle costs.
We have complemented existing global sea transportation emission inventories with new regional emission data sets and scenarios for ship traffic and coastal activity in 2015. Emission inventories for 2000 and 2015 are used in a global Chemical Transport Model (CTM) to quantify environmental atmospheric impacts with particular focus on the Arctic region. Although we assume that ship emissions continue to increase from 2000 to 2015, reductions are assumed for some chemical components and regions because of implementation of new regulations. Current ship traffic (2000) is estimated to contribute significantly to coastal pollution. Norwegian coastal ship traffic is responsible for more than 1/3 and 1/6 of the Norwegian NOx and SO2 emissions, respectively. For these short-lived components the impact of Norwegian coastal emissions is regionally important. For most components the international ship transportation outside coastal waters dominates the effects. Ship emissions increase wet deposition in Scandinavia with 30-50% for nitrate and 10-25% for sulfate. In general, coastal regions with prevailing onshore winds show substantial increases in deposition of acid components. Maximum surface increase in ozone is in excess of 10 ppbv. Column ozone increases are also significant. Assuming no changes in nonshipping emissions, scenarios for shipping activities in 2015 lead to more than 20% increase in NO2 from 2000 to 2015 in some coastal areas. Ozone increases are in general small. Wet deposition of acidic species increases up to 10% in areas where current critical loads are exceeded. Regulations limiting the sulfur content in the fuel in the North Sea and English Channel will be an efficient measure to reduce sulfate deposition in nearby coastal regions. The expected oil and gas transport by ships from Norway and northwest Russia, sea transport along the Northern Sea Route and new Norwegian coastal gas power plants will have a significant regional effect by increases of acid deposition in north Scandinavia and the Kola Peninsula. Augmented levels of particles in the Arctic are calculated, and thus the contribution from ship traffic to phenomena like Arctic haze could be increasing.
Shipping activity has increased considerably over the last century and
currently represents a significant contribution to the global emissions
of pollutants and greenhouse gases. Despite this, information about the
historical development of fuel consumption and emissions is generally
limited, with little data published pre-1950 and large deviations
reported for estimates covering the last 3 decades. To better understand
the historical development in ship emissions and the uncertainties
associated with the estimates, we present fuel-based CO2 and
SO2 emission inventories from 1925 up to 2002 and
activity-based estimates from 1970 up to 2000. The global CO2
emissions from ships in 1925 have been estimated to 229 Tg
(CO2), growing to about 634 Tg (CO2) in 2002. The
corresponding SO2 emissions are about 2.5 Tg (SO2)
and 8.5 Tg (SO2), respectively. Our activity-based estimates
of fuel consumption from 1970 to 2000, covering all oceangoing civil
ships above or equal to 100 gross tonnage (GT), are lower compared to
previous activity-based studies. We have applied a more detailed model
approach, which includes variation in the demand for sea transport, as
well as operational and technological changes of the past. This study
concludes that the main reason for the large deviations found in
reported inventories is the applied number of days at sea. Moreover, our
modeling indicates that the ship size and the degree of utilization of
the fleet, combined with the shift to diesel engines, have been the
major factors determining yearly fuel consumption. Interestingly, the
model results from around 1973 suggest that the fleet growth is not
necessarily followed by increased fuel consumption, as technical and
operational characteristics have changed. Results from this study
indicate that reported sales over the last 3 decades seems not to be
significantly underreported as previous simplified activity-based
studies have suggested. The results confirm our previously reported
modeling estimates for year 2000. Previous activity-based studies have
not considered ships less than 100 GT (e.g., today some 1.3 million
fishing vessels), and we suggest that this fleet could account for an
important part of the total fuel consumption (˜10%).
A methodology is presented to estimate the emissions of ships at berth based on their actual fuel consumption and the fuel quality. Accurate estimates of emissions from ships at berth demand reliable knowledge of the fuel consumption while at berth and associated fuel characteristics. However, assured information about energy use and fuel consumption of seagoing ships at berth is scarce. Proper estimation of ship emissions at berth is crucial for understanding the impact of shipping emissions on air quality and health in harbour cities as well as for a proper evaluation of the impact of abatement measures such as shore-side electricity and/or restrictions of sulphur content for shipping fuels to be used in ports. Therefore, a survey of energy consumption and fuel use on board of 89 seagoing ships was made in close cooperation with the Port of Rotterdam. Rotterdam is the major port of Europe ensuring that the results will have relevance for the larger European domain. On board of the ships at berth, a questionnaire was filled in by the chief engineer of that particular ship, assisted by two former mechanical shipping engineers employed at our organization. Survey results as well as the emission estimations are compared to the (scarce) information that is available and expert judgements in recent studies. The compiled survey data underlie the current Dutch emission estimation methodology for emissions of ships at berth.
The effect of ship emissions in the urban environment of Göteborg has been studied by multivariate analysis. The simultaneous measurements of relevant gases and sub-micron particles make identification of ship plumes possible. Increased concentrations of these species due to ship emissions are quantified for ships entering the inner part of the harbour. Annual depositions of SO2 and NO2 are estimated to be 220 and 115 kg km−2 yr−1, respectively. Exposure of transient particles (less than 0.1 μm in diameter) to this part of the harbour increased by a factor of 3 in number concentration when a ship plume was recorded. Ni, Pb, V and Zn are shown to have positive correlation with NO emissions from ships.
We present a global bottom-up ship emission algorithm that calculates fuel consumption, emissions, and vessel traffic densities for present-day (2006) and two future scenarios (2050) considering the opening of Arctic polar routes due to projected sea ice decline. Ship movements and actual ship engine power per individual ship from Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit (LMIU) ship statistics for six months in 2006 and further mean engine data from literature serve as input. The developed SeaKLIM algorithm automatically finds the most probable shipping route for each combination of start and destination port of a certain ship movement by calculating the shortest path on a predefined model grid while considering land masses, sea ice, shipping canal sizes, and climatological mean wave heights. The resulting present-day ship activity agrees well with observations. The global fuel consumption of 221 Mt in 2006 lies in the range of previously published inventories when undercounting of ship numbers in the LMIU movement database (40,055 vessels) is considered. Extrapolated to 2007 and ship numbers per ship type of the recent International Maritime Organization (IMO) estimate (100,214 vessels), a fuel consumption of 349 Mt is calculated which is in good agreement with the IMO total of 333 Mt. The future scenarios show Arctic polar routes with regional fuel consumption on the Northeast and Northwest Passage increasing by factors of up to 9 and 13 until 2050, respectively.
We developed an air pollutant emission inventory for marine vessels in the Shanghai Port in 2003. We estimated emissions under cruising and maneuvering conditions based on two categories of vessels: (1) vessels in the Outer Port, which enter the area following notification of the Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration, a division of the Ministry of Communications of P.R. China; and (2) vessels in internal waterways, which enter those waters following notification of the local Port Administration Centers. Vessels in the Outer Port consist of three subcategories: (1) international vessels that are engaged in foreign commerce; (2) domestic vessels traveling along the downstream portion of the Huangpu River; and (3) domestic vessels traveling along the coast. We also estimate emissions from vessels over 1000 DWT operating under hotelling conditions in the Outer Port. In 2003, the total number of calls was approximately 1.3 million, of which 57% is attributed to vessels in internal waterways and 43% to vessels in the Outer Port. Total marine emissions for NOx, SO2, PM, HC, and CO2 in 2003 are estimated to be 58,160, 51,180, 6960, 4560, and 3,012,800 tons, respectively. Emissions are allocated to 1 km x 1 km grid cells for the 129 km x 102 km Shanghai Port study domain.
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