No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Alcohol and violent behavior among football spectators: An empirical assessment of Brazilian's criminalization
Abstract
The relationship between alcohol and the violent behavior, expressed as branches of hooliganism, is receiving considerable theoretical attention in social and psychological literature along the past decades while empirical researches on that matter are taken for granted. The falling in appreciate such empirical approach relies on the difficult it requires to compare of two different realities; one with alcohol intake and another without it, in order to evaluate whether it might drive sport spectators into a violent behavior, holding everything else constant. This work provides such robust statistical assessment taking into consideration a Brazilian state law 13748 of April 2009, which prohibited the sale of alcoholic beverages in Pernambuco's football stadiums. We consider the effectiveness of alcohol intervention on hooligan behavior by means of non-parametric test and a autoregressive moving average series, resorting to over ten years of data (before and during the criminalization) with regard aggression and unruly conduct committed by fans before in football matches within 3 miles from the stadium. Our results bring support to the decision of Pernambuco State Legislature to abolish in January 2016 the law in favor of the legalization of alcoholic beverages sales.
... Menaker and Chaney (2014) found a positive relationship between alcohol presence and crimes at American college football games. However, Nepomuceno et al. (2017) suggested that alcohol consumption has limited influence on fan violence in football stadiums in Brazil. ...
... For instance, Kalist and Lee (2016) considered occurrences in the surrounding area of the stadium, relying on data recorded in police bulletins. Nepomuceno et al. (2017) based their analysis on results from court proceedings, while Spaite et al. (1990) used data from hospital admissions. Our paper focuses on antisocial behaviors occurring inside stadiums during football matches, as reported in referees' summaries and match reports. ...
... The variable "cumulative defeats" (d) shows the evolution of a club's negative performance, as a way to highlight that the number of defeats may provoke antisocial behavior in stadiums. Rees and Schnepel (2009) established the stadium capacity as a measure of size and Nepomuceno et al. (2017) presented the number of tickets used in the match with the same intent. We have incorporated the variable "percentage of occupancy" (o), calculated as the ratio between the number of tickets sold and the stadium capacity for each match. ...
Background: The violent behavior of football fans is constantly associated with their drinking habits. Aiming to reduce its impact, policy makers often ban the sales and consumption of alcohol beverages during matches. Nonetheless, there are few papers that empirically analyzed such relationship, and our paper aims to shed light on this question. Methods: Out dataset comprises 4,560 matches from the first and second tiers of the Brazilian League, where 245 exhibited at least one antisocial behavior from fans. Ordered logistic regressions are used as method. Results: Our empirical findings evidence that the sales of alcoholic drinks do increase the likelihood of severe antisocial behavior. We also observed a higher likelihood of violent cases when the home club loses its match as well as during crowded matches. Conclusions: We conclude that the change in the alcohol police in Brazil did show a significant association with the likelihood of antisocial behavior among football fans. However, since the magnitude of such effect is small, further research is needed to examine the potential benefits of this policy change.
... Nepomuceno et al. [11] tested the hypothesis that alcohol is one of those situational determinants of violent behavior by football fans by assessing Pernambuco's State Law 13748/2009. This public sanction prohibited the selling and intake of alcoholic beverages in the stadiums during official soccer matches (i.e., state, regional, national and international championships) from April 2009 to December 2015 (except during the 2014 World Cup). ...
... From Nepomuceno et al.'s [11] perspective, contextual factors determining the relative importance of the match, such as commemorative days, the club's rank position, prior provocations, and derbies, play an essential role in the short-run determination of the aggressive behavior by the fans. This perspective is also shared by Spaaij [6] and Collins [12], arguing that spontaneous episodes of collective violence appear to be related to events on the playing field because fans are subject to the same rhythms of dramatic tension as players. ...
... The design of empirical network representations about the incidence of violence among sports spectators based on the Bedouin syndrome can be a viable way to generate an understanding of how fan bases are structured and interrelate, being able to guarantee to the authorities a preview of which "coalitions" of supporters may or may not be harmful to public welfare. Besides supporting fast decision making, Bedouin networks' design has relevant statistical properties that may help policymakers predict the most probable clash of gangs in the urban space and guarantee public security [11]. Such an approach is in continuously grown over the past decades, providing applications in the fields of information technology, engineering, management, economics, industrial organization, behavioral sciences, and policy modeling [23][24][25][26]. ...
The Bedouin syndrome represents social interactions based on four premises: a friend of my friend is my friend, a friend of my enemy is my enemy, an enemy of my friend is my enemy, and an enemy of my enemy is my friend. These extensive associations exist in many social and economic relationships, such as market competition, neighborhood relations, political behavior, student gangs, organized crime, and the violent behavior of sports spectators (hooliganism) worldwide. This work tests the Bedouin syndrome hypothesis considering the violent behavior in the football fan culture. We construct relational networks of social affinities to represent the social interactions of organized fan bases (Torcidas organizadas) involved in hooligan violence in Pernambuco, Brazil. Contrary to prior expectations, the results evidence no statistical support for the Bedouin syndrome in 13 of the 15 analyzed clubs. There is weak statistical support in two interactions and strong statistical support in one interaction to state that a friend of my enemy is my friend (instead of an enemy). The only support for the Bedouin syndrome is circumstantial based on a prior assumption of an alliance. We propose a network development that can be more suitable to represent football fans’ violent behavior. The results contribute to understanding the hooliganism social phenomenon in football-rooted cultures and their impact on public health, identifying potential determinants for organized violence by young spectators’ and supporting police strategies by defining relevance scores for the most potential clashes and coalitions of gangs.
... The first trend shows the relationships between the group dynamics of what are called bars and violent behaviors around the acts of accompaniment to football teams (Bermúdez-Amaya, 2017;Blázquez et al., 2015;Cabrera & Assusa, 2017;Garrica Zucal, 2006, 2011, 2016Miranda Bastidas et al., 2015;Moreira, 2007;Muñoz-Muñoz, 2015;Nepomuceno et al., 2017;Newson et al., 2018;Ostrowsky, 2014;Rivera Rangel et al., 2018;Uribe-Aramburo, 2018;Vélez-Maya & Arboleda-Ariza, 2016). ...
... The second trend is related to barrismo and the consumption of psychoactive substances as ways of identifying the members of these groups, and which in turn, becomes an inciting behavior of violent acts (Castaño-Pérez et al., 2014;López-Quintero & Neumark, 2012;Nepomuceno et al., 2017;Ostrowsky, 2014). ...
... The action as a possibility of initiation (Arendt, 2005), is what favors the transit from barras bravas to popular bars. This transit, through processes of reflexivity of the members of these groups, is crossed by the interest of social contribution for the transformations of the territories, in addition, these findings allow to expand the understanding of the social phenomenon of barrismo, beyond the deficient and pathologizing looks shown in the first two trends found in the studies that served as investigative antecedents, namely, relationships between the group dynamics of what are called bars (Bermúdez-Amaya, 2017;Blázquez et al., 2015;Cabrera & Assusa, 2017;Garrica Zucal, 2006, 2011, 2016Miranda Bastidas, Urrego Sáenz, & Vera Erazo, 2015;Moreira, 2007;Muñoz-Muñoz, 2015;Nepomuceno et al., 2017;Newson et al., 2018;Ostrowsky, 2014;Rivera Rangel, Duque Gil, & Agudelo Padilla, 2018;Uribe-Aramburo, 2018;Vélez-Maya & Arboleda-Ariza, 2016), and the relationship between barrismo, consumption of psychoactive substances and violence (Castaño-Pérez, Uribe-Aramburo, & Restrepo-Escobar, 2014;López-Quintero & Neumark, 2012;Nepomuceno et al., 2017;Ostrowsky, 2014). In this regard, Barrista 12 relates: ...
Barrismo is a complex phenomenon and cannot be defined universally. Social representation is based on deficient conceptions that relate it to the use of psychoactive substances and violence. This article presents qualitative research evidence based on the epistemological assumptions of social constructionism, a hermeneutical phenomenological design and the use of qualitative interview and documentary and audiovisual review, to understand the political-pedagogical character of the collective actions of the popular bars of the city of Medellín, Colombia, as practices that contribute to the transformation of the territories. Categories found: i. Bars as popular movements: transition from the brave bar to the popular bar, and ii. Collective actions: Barrismo Social. The bars have gone from rough bars to popular bars, from political and critical reflexivity, with collective actions for the transformation of the territories, which transcends the experience of stigma and social prejudice.
... This is supported by [95] who identified alcohol intake only increased aggression in some individuals, particularly heavy drinkers. Specific to football supporters, ref. [96] (p. 35) challenged the direct impact of alcohol on violence, finding it an "indirect stimulus" of violent behaviour amongst fans. ...
... However, ref. [83] highlights that drinking culture is embedded within football, to the extent that fans feel obliged to engage with alcohol on match days as it is a common behaviour amongst them. The participants also acknowledged situational factors that affect alcohol consumption levels, including high-profile games being accredited as more of an "occasion" where alcohol plays a social role [85,96] and a decrease in consumption after a loss. This was evidenced by Jamie's part-time work in a pub, stating that "no one has a reason to drink anymore" so everyone returns home. ...
Increased reports of domestic violence and abuse (DVA) have been identified following football games. Yet, the relationship between DVA and football culture remains underexplored qualita-tively. To better understand this phenomenon, we conducted a focus group with male, non-abusive football youth fans to gain perceptions of why domestic violence increases following football matches in England. Using thematic analysis, we present a unique insight into the link between DVA and football culture. The findings align with previously identified risk factors of DVA in-cluding the role of alcohol consumption, gambling, and other violent behaviours. We also iden-tified game specific (e.g. the intensity of winning or losing) and individual factors (e.g. previous exposure to violence and awareness of what constitutes DVA) as heightening the effects of these cultural behaviours, alongside an increased sense of identity with ‘football culture’ after attending a game. We conclude by considering the implications of these findings for policy and practice, such as considering placement of advertising campaigns during matches to increase awareness, in-creasing threats of punishment and considering the scheduling of matches to reduce triggers of such cultural, and often violent, behaviours associated with football fandom. In addition, we call for further research in this area.
... It is through this formal k-means procedure that the importance of data clustering is widely recognized by several researchers. Thus, this procedure is understood as a model to better manage, browse, filter, and efficiently and intelligently summarize a large amount of data that can be used for decision making with greater safety [41,[55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67]. ...
... There is an increasing effort by the state and municipal administrations to integrate police strategies with the academy and other sectors aiming at mitigating this scenario. Some important studies using Geographic Information Systems and statistical inference warrant these efforts and provide an interesting perspective on crime and violent behavior in the city [9,58,[62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69]. ...
Planning and defining places for the installation of police facilities are fundamental to improving the public security service in the urban space. Geographic Information Systems connecting the spatial distribution of police occurrences, budgetary restrictions, and the maximum distance covered are state-of-the-art innovations addressing the need for preventive and responsive police management. The present work proposes a management information system to support the analysis and suggestion of potential police facility locations. The management information system is modeled using k-means for cluster analysis and the definition of candidate locations, and the maximal covering location problem is used to optimize the predefined locations. The proposed system allows the analysis of alternative locations and their impacts on public security. The application in Brazil demonstrates that it is possible to obtain an additional 22% gain in the coverage area of occurrences and an additional reduction of 920 m in terms of the average distance covered when comparing the management information system’s suggested locations to the current configuration. Thus, our assessment provides an efficient tool for supporting decisions regarding the location of police facilities and helps improve the public security service.
... Recife has a population of 1,537,704 residents and about 218,435 km 2 urban and rural area decomposed into 1852 census tracts that put together regions with similar socio-economic characteristics. The problem of urban violence in the city has been addressed by studies on the hooligan behavior (Nepomuceno et al. 2017), homicides (Menezes et al. 2013;Pereira et al. 2015Pereira et al. , 2017, drug market (Daudelin and Ratton 2017) and robberies by means of multicriteria decision modeling (Figueiredo and Mota 2016). In this work, from the geospatial dataset, nine types of robberies are considered using geographic information analysis: larceny, armed robbery, group stealing, motor vehicle theft, burglary, commercial burglary, saidinha de banco (saucy bank), motor vehicle robbery and arrastão (flash robbery). ...
... Excepting few occurrences outside the core hot spot cluster in the east side of the visualization, this felony concentrates in crowded slow-moving neighborhoods with intense pedestrian traffic during weekends such as Recife Antigo, Boa Vista, and Pina. Most of the occurrences are associated with the Recife's main hooligan fan bases (see the discussion provided by Nepomuceno et al. 2017), which brings a strategic positioning for policing by predicting where the crime takes place (center east spot) when it is ought (likely) to happen (during weekends before or after soccer matches) and who commits them (most of them club supporters). ...
The problem of aggregating large samples of criminal data in visual representations, as
often observed in many studies using geographic information systems and optimization
tools to perform social assessments and design spatial patterns, is discussed in this
work. A compensation bias in the correlation measure of the spatial association can be
found in such types of big data aggregations, which may jeopardize the entire analysis
and the conclusions from the results. In this work, a big dataset of robbery incidents
recorded from the years 2013 through 2016 in Recife, one of the most important
Brazilian capitals, is decomposed into 9 small sets of specific robberies, namely,
Larceny, Armed Robbery, Group Stealing, Motor Vehicles Thefts, Burglary,
Commercial Burglary, Saidinha de Banco (Saucy Bank), Motor Vehicle Robbery
(Carjacking) and Arrastão (Flash Robbery). More accurate measures for the spatial
autocorrelation can be derived from the individual incidences as proposed in this work.
The visualization of optimized hot spots and cold spots of crime based on these
autocorrelation measures besides enable rapid actions where crime concentrates, they
have the property to design spatial patterns that can be associated with environmental,
social and economic factors to support more efficient decision making on the allocation
of public safety resources.
... Nowadays, football is referred to as an industry, and officials of national, continental, and world football federations are considered influential and powerful political figures. The suspension of important political, social, economic, and cultural meetings and various businesses during football matches indicates the high excitement and inclination of people towards football (Nepomuceno, De Moura, Silva, and Costa, 2017). Among all sports, football has a special importance and position with the highest capacity to attract spectators. ...
... Areas close to sports venues are often the scene of conflicts between rival fans, in addition to vandalism, theft, and other forms of violence. Some interesting works on the topic include [3,4] studies on the violent behavior of football supporters in Brazil. ...
This work proposes a methodology based on Multicriteria Decision Aid (MCDA) and Cluster Analysis to identify ideal locations for the installation of police facilities or vehicle parking and policing around stadiums in Recife, Brazil, during potential violent sports events (criminal occurrences from football supporters or fanbases). K-Means unsupervised clustering algorithm is used to group criminal data into homogeneous clusters based on their characteristics. Each type of criminal occurrence is linked to a single cluster. The optimal location is addressed based on the PROME-THEE method (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation), allowing clusters to be organized into a hierarchy based on the number of facilities (N), average distance (D) from the criminal occurrence to the associated cluster, and the coverage level (C) which is the proportion of crime occurring in a location less than 500m from the associated cluster. Through data analysis on crimes and violence in the region, the study seeks to identify patterns of criminal behaviour and high-risk areas to determine the most strategic location for the police units and enhance the public security decision-making process. The choice for the k parameters ranged from 1 to 30 incorporating all region of analysis, with computational cost of 43 minutes running time using Intel Core i3-3217U (1800GHz and 10 GB RAM). This approach and methodology can be useful to support public security policies in the region and contribute to the reduction of violence around the stadiums. The empirical application can help guide public managers' decisions regarding resource allocation and the implementation of more effective security policies, with the aim of ensuring a safer environment for fans and residents in the areas near the stadiums..
... Também, a utilização da previsão através de series temporais fornece informações para a tomada de decisão em diversas áreas, por exemplo, a legislativa no caso de venda de álcool vs futebol, proposta por Nepomuceno et al. (2017) Visando a relevância na utilização das séries temporais e métodos de previsão como ferramenta para a obtenção de informações que apoiem a tomada de decisão, o presente trabalho visa realizar a previsão da demanda de acumuladores de energia (bateria) sustentado com os dados históricos da demanda deste produto. A bateria é um produto caracterizado por um extenso tempo de produção, demandando um grande número de materiais para sua construção, assim como, a utilização de máquinas para ...
The use of statistical methods for forecasting demand helps managers in decision making, especially when it is necessary to carry out production planning. Therefore, it is extremely important to know the demand for a particular product, especially when it comes to lines of jobbing production systems in which transforming resources are shared between products. Following this idea, the manufacturing time of the products plays a relevant role both for the production programming to avoid incurring higher costs incurred in storage, obsolescence, among others. In order to overcome these difficulties by providing in-formation on future sales of the product to the decision maker, this work uses time series of demand that were provided by the manufacturer of energy accumulators to forecast the demand for batteries. The study was aided by forecasting methods. Among these methods, the autoregressive integrated time series method – ARIMA – stands out, which was used and evaluated the accuracy of its forecasts. However, it was found that the additive Holt-Winters method presented the best fit for the data of this research. With the application of this methodology, it is expected to contribute to the efficiency of the programming of manufacturing processes.
... There may also be disruptive behaviors and vandalism in urban areas, which can be described as mob violence (e.g. Nepomuceno et al., 2017;Newson, 2019;Pearson & Sale, 2011). ...
It is known that dedicated football supporters consume large amounts of alcohol, and sometimes drugs. Yet, studies have not examined how dedicated supporters perceive substance use, and what treatment needs they have. In this study, seven dedicated supporters were interviewed about their perceptions of supporter culture, the relational aspects of it, substance use patterns, and treatment needs. The interviews were analyzed using interpretative phenomenological analysis. The participants could not imagine supporter culture without alcohol. Three participants had experienced difficulties with substances. All were ambivalent about substance use patterns among supporters and understood the risks. Simultaneously, they appreciated the support, familiarity, and sense of being part of something larger that supporter culture provided. Some sensed that the companionship could be supportive for those struggling with substances. Others sensed that the closeness of the group hindered recovery. Participants underlined agency and responsibility and sensed that one needs to understand why one made the choice to be part of a group that was characterized by substance use patterns connected to traditional masculine ideals. Therefore, assessment and treatment need to be person-centered, acknowledge choices, the context, the gendered behaviors that are enacted through substance use, and whether the context could support or hinder recover.
... Some assessments of crime and policing in Pernambuco used statistical, multicriteria, and geospatial tools for ranking, clustering, and classifying units and regions according to the vulnerability to homicides [32][33][34], preference learning [35,36], property crimes [37,38], and investigating the violent behavior in Pernambuco [39]. Despite providing valuable support for policymakers, to the best of our knowledge, ranking regions or police units for public security purposes based on a multicriteria combination of nonparametric robust estimators for technical efficiency with measures for effectiveness of results were not featured in the current literature. ...
The nonparametric assessment of police efficiency and effectiveness is challenging due to the stochastic nature of criminal behavior and the subjective dependence on multiple decision criteria, leading to different prospects depending on the regulation, necessity, or organizational objective. There is a trade-off between sustainable efficiency and effectiveness in many police performance assessments, because many departments can be crime-specialized or cannot reproduce good results effectively on more severe or complex occurrences. This study aims to provide a non-compensatory ranking classification combining Conditional Frontier Analysis with the PROMETHEE II methodology for the multidimensional efficiency and effectiveness analysis of police. The results on Pernambuco (Brazil) Police departments offer interesting perspectives for public administrations concerning prioritizations of units based on the mitigation of resources and strategic objectives.
... An extension of the current application investigating the efficiency evolution and the hospitalization efficacy against COVID-19 can be very useful for policymakers. A timeseries evaluation, as suggested by Nepomuceno et al. [49], can be performed using time-series data regarding the period before and after the implementation of beds reallocation schema based on each specialty complexity of needs. ...
Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a powerful nonparametric engineering tool for estimating technical efficiency and production capacity of service units. Assuming an equally proportional change in the output/input ratio, we can estimate how many additional medical resource health service units would be required if the number of hospitalizations was expected to increase during an epidemic outbreak. This assessment proposes a two-step methodology for hospital beds vacancy and reallocation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The framework determines the production capacity of hospitals through data envelopment analysis and incorporates the complexity of needs in two categories for the reallocation of beds throughout the medical specialties. As a result, we have a set of inefficient healthcare units presenting less complex bed slacks to be reduced, that is, to be allocated for patients presenting with more severe conditions. The first results in this work, in collaboration with state and municipal administrations in Brazil, report 3772 beds feasible to be evacuated by 64% of the analyzed health units, of which more than 82% are moderate complexity evacuations. The proposed assessment and methodology can provide a direction for governments and policymakers to develop strategies based on a robust quantitative production capacity measure.
... A quantitative study by Nepomuceno et al. (2017) assessed the impact of a ban on alcohol sales inside stadiums that was in place in the Brazilian state of Pernambuco between 2009 and 2015. The authors analysed a dataset covering matches of the states' three biggest football clubs, which included criminal justice information on any hooliganism incidents that may have occurred during the matches (the total number of matches in the sample was 375, incidents occurring at 309 of these). ...
The list of violent crimes may be extensive, depending on the definition. The FBI's definition is restricted to include only murder and manslaughter, assaults, rape, and robbery. However, the United Nations' and World Health Organization's definitions are much broader and include several crimes against women and children, crimes against civilians during armed conflicts, and other “crimes against humanity.” This entry includes brief discussion of some of the common forms of violent crime, including intimate partner violence and other domestic violence offenses, and of the most horrific violent crimes, those committed against children, and gang violence.
Understanding attendance at football stadiums holds great significance for sports economists and football clubs. Consequently, extensive research has been conducted to analyze the factors influencing football stadium attendance. However, much of this research has been confined to short-term analyses or focused solely on European countries. This study seeks to broaden the scope by examining long-term trends in the Netherlands and exploring the dynamics in Brazil. In the Netherlands, factors such as unemployment and overall interest in football emerge as significant determinants of stadium attendance. Surprisingly, hooliganism does not appear to have a notable impact, and the influence of leisure time is unclear. In the Brazilian context, stadium capacity and goal difference do not show significant effects on attendance, and the impact of the club's division is ambiguous.
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence and data-driven technologies have presented novel opportunities for addressing complex socioeconomic challenges in the contemporary world. By harnessing diverse datasets and employing sophisticated analytical techniques, researchers, policymakers, and practitioners can gain profound insights into the root causes of socioeconomic challenges and devise innovative strategies to promote inclusive development and sustainable growth. In this editorial, I share some perspectives on exploring the application of non-parametric and parametric data-driven analytics methodologies (Data Envelopment Analysis and Econometric Models) as powerful tools for understanding and resolving multifaceted issues that impact societies globally, and what I believe to be the future of these methods. Readers of Socioeconomic Analytics will be able to find those interesting methodologies as empirical applications in the journal's inaugural and forthcoming issues.
O presente livro traz uma coleção de trabalhos de estudantes da Universidade Federal de Pernambuco que foram desenvolvidos durante a disciplina de Análise de Séries Temporais ao longo de dois anos de pandemia. Os trabalhos e estudos de caso aqui destacados são frutos de projetos de pesquisa e ensino com o uso das ferramentas da análise de séries temporais para a identificar, estimar e diagnosticar uma gama de aplicações empíricas nos mais diversos setores, tais como gastos parlamentares (capítulo 1), mercado de ações (capítulos 2, 5, 9 e 10), previsões de demanda (capítulos 6 e 8), segurança pública (capítulo 4) e saúde pública (capítulos 3 e 7) em especialmente no contexto pandêmico.
This chapter considers the key legal measures that have been designed to confront football crowd violence and disorder, or those that have been used to this end. It sets out the statutory stadium safety framework, along with football-specific and public order offences, in both their historical context and current operation, and considers how the courts have applied and interpreted these provisions. We argue that much of the legislation introduced to reduce football crowd disorder is outdated, having been introduced in a very different football spectator milieu in terms of stadium infrastructure and fan behavioural norms, as well as very different policing and legal environments. We contend that while football banning orders following conviction have probably had a positive effect on domestic football violence, many of statutory powers have been ineffective, and in some cases counter-productive, driving spectator behaviour in ways that can increase, rather than reduce, potential conflict. We conclude by suggesting that the existence of laws lacking legitimacy in fan communities makes reform of football policing more difficult.
Background
In 2021, a fan-led review of football governance in England recommended that legislation surrounding alcohol and football be reviewed to determine whether it is still fit for purpose, the first such review since the mid-1980s. Restricting football fans’ alcohol consumption has been debated in the UK for over 40 years. However, more research is needed into the current attitudes of fans and influential stakeholders on this matter.
Methods
Focus groups with football supporters (n=79) and semi-structured interviews (n=15) with key organisational stakeholders were conducted between November 2019 and February 2021. Focus groups included fans who regularly attended matches and supported various teams from professional leagues in Scotland and England, casual fans who usually watched games at home or in bars, and fans who followed the Scotland and England national teams. Stakeholders were selected to represent organisations likely to be instrumental in any regulatory change, such as the UK and Scottish Governments, Police, football supporters’ groups and safety organisations.
Results
The current law does not allow for alcohol to be consumed within view of the pitch. Participants from England suggested this could be changed. While in Scotland, where the legislation only allows alcohol to be sold in hospitality, most participants were in favour of allowing the general sale of alcohol at football stadia via a pilot scheme. The reasons for these changes included: reducing unhealthy drinking behaviours; minimising the health and safety risk of fans arriving at the stadium just before kick-off; and a potential increase in much needed revenue for clubs.
Conclusion
Our data suggests an evidence-based review of current laws regarding alcohol and football may be appropriate. However, any discussion regarding changes to the law regarding alcohol at football stadia, including potential pilot schemes, should be evaluated and monitored in terms of both financial impact and the impact on public health and safety.
This assessment aims at measuring the impact of different location mobility on the COVID-19 pandemic. Data over time and over the 27 Brazilian federations in 5 regions provided by Google's COVID-19 community mobility reports and classified by place categories (retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residences) are autoregressed on the COVID-19 incidence in Brazil using generalized linear regressions to measure the aggregate dynamic impact of mobility on each socioeconomic category. The work provides a novel multicriteria approach for selecting the most appropriate estimation model in the context of this application. Estimations for the time gap between contagion and data disclosure for public authorities' decision-making, estimations regarding the propagation rate, and the marginal mobility contribution for each place category are also provided. We report the pandemic evolution on the dimensions of cases and a geostatistical analysis evaluating the most critical cities in Brazil based on optimized hotspots with a brief discussion on the effects of population density and the carnival.
This work discusses the issue on how to include data about property and violent crimes in the production technology for the assessment of police technical efficiency. It applies recent advances in Directional Distances and Nonparametric Estimators. We claim that crime is an external variable not under the control of the decision units in view of the fact that it is exogenously determined. The results from the Conditional Directional Distance Analysis can be relevant to cities with high property misdemeanors and homicide rates. Our analysis may be helpful to obtain a more robust and fair classification of police and justice units under similar circumstances, determine the empirical effect of crime on police productivity, their optimal input–output relationship, explore potential associations and compensation effects, and rewarding efficient policy makers in the prevention of crime based on measures of police efficiency and effectiveness.
A violência entre torcedores de futebol é um problema de segurança pública no Brasil. O propósito deste estudo é contribuir para o debate que relaciona o consumo de álcool e a violência entre torcedores de futebol. Trata-se de uma pesquisa de abordagem qualitativa-quantitativa, cujos dados foram obtidos por meio de análise documental, entrevistas semiestruturadas, observações e teste AUDIT. Dois grupos de dez torcedores homens, maiores de idade, participaram do estudo. Estatísticas de segurança apontam que ocorrências policiais diminuíram após a proibição da venda e consumo de álcool em estádios brasileiros. O álcool e outras drogas (ilícitas) são mais consumidos fora dos estádios por grupos de torcedores violentos. Segundo o protocolo AUDIT, 50% dos torcedores submetidos ao teste apresentaram consumo de alto risco e 10%, provável dependência. Portanto, o consumo de álcool pode ser um importante agente desencadeador de violências no futebol e por isso merece atenção e políticas públicas adequadas.
One limitation in the economic analysis of efficiency and productivity is the impossibility to determine whether a service organization has reached their optimum output-to-input configuration, i.e. whether efficient units could be more efficient or whether inefficient units have reached their maximum potential and could not improve their performance. In this work, the usage of time series data instead of cross-sectional data from different DMUs is motivated to avoid this problematic of comparing units which might significantly differ in their internal structure (production technology) even presenting similar input/output levels. From the optimum output-to-input ratio, resource lacks (with respect to projected goals) and slacks can be determined for each decision unit evaluated individually. The case of Brazilian Federal Saving banks is presented as an empirical application of the methodology. Abstract One limitation in the economic analysis of efficiency and productivity is the impossibility to determine whether a service organization has reached their optimum output-to-input configuration, i.e. whether efficient units could be more efficient or whether inefficient units have reached their maximum potential and could not improve their performance. In this work, the use of time series data instead of data from different DMUs is motivated to avoid this problem of comparing units which might significantly differ in their internal structure (production technology) even presenting similar input/output levels. From the optimum output-to-input ratio, resource lacks (with respect to projected goals) and slacks can be determined for each decision unit evaluated individually. The case of Brazilian Federal Saving banks is presented as an empirical application of the methodology.
In this paper, I aimed to answer the following question: how the claims-makers of the social problem of violence in Brazilian football symbolically construct the conditions of this problem, the actors involved in it and their solutions and how these symbolic constructions reinforce or, on the contrary, undermine relations of domination? Therefore, I referred to research findings that I have been developing since 2008. Besides, I considered my experiences during my participation in the public debate about violence in Brazilian football. Among other things, I concluded that some of these symbolic constructions have kept the organized group of supporters and the poor supporters under a condition of domination. At the same time, I indicated that they have motivated practices of resistance, such as the creation of representative associations of organized group of supporters.
Eric Dunning’s academic work is central in the development of sociology of sports. This article was produced after a deep, detailed and careful reading of his work and Brazilian literature concerning violence in football and/or organized fan groups (torcidas organizadas), given the author’s striking influence on Brazilian studies. We consulted data from academic databases, university libraries and our personal archives. This study presents the main concepts of figurational sociology and the development of sport, which create the bases to describe explanations about British hooliganism and its influence on research about violence in Brazilian football. © 2015, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul. All rights reserved.
The realization of mega sporting events in Brazil has motivated changes in various social contexts, and promote changes in legislation. FIFA requirements disregard of the political achievements of alcohol and about violence in stadiums, strengthening the link between beer and football. Considering the negative consequences of granting the sale and consumption of beer in stadiums and advertising of beer involving the World Cup, this article discussed intangible impacts of the 2014 World Cup. Signals of increasing the number of beer drinkers as a result of the General Law of the Cup, highlighting the negative aspects to society.
Crowd violence is a regular feature of spectator sports around the world. Contemporary research recognizes the diversity and complexity of this violence, but serious interdisciplinary work on the topic remains sparse. This article suggests that there is a need for increased dialogue across academic disciplines. I examine how themes and issues emanating from different disciplines may be brought together to produce a fuller, multi-level analysis that integrates distal and proximate causes of sports crowd violence. Using a socio-ecological model, it is shown that fan violence arises from the dynamic interplay between individual, interpersonal, situational, social environmental, and social structural factors. I also review key continua of sports crowd violence pertaining to its scale, coordination, purpose, sources, and relation to social norms. The article concludes by presenting directions for future research on sports crowd violence.
Referring to classic rational choice models of criminal behaviour (Becker 1968), this paper presents an extended Subjective Expected Utility model that is more in line with the requirements of theorizing and empirical testing than former models. In our model, the decision of an actor is influenced by the expected utility of the crime and the norms that prohibit the delinquent action. It is suggested that there is an interaction between utility and norms which reflect different patterns of decision making leading to different probabilities for the occurrence of crimes. The model is tested by using survey data from Germany. Applying a new technique to uncover interaction effects reveals that in one pattern, internalized norms that label criminal action as not appropriate take effect instead of deliberation. In another pattern, the recognition that certain actions are connected to societal norms increases deliberation about costs and benefits of criminal behaviour.
Let n observations Y 1, Y 2, ···, Y n be generated by the model Y t = pY t−1 + e t , where Y 0 is a fixed constant and {e t } t-1 n is a sequence of independent normal random variables with mean 0 and variance σ2. Properties of the regression estimator of p are obtained under the assumption that p = ±1. Representations for the limit distributions of the estimator of p and of the regression t test are derived. The estimator of p and the regression t test furnish methods of testing the hypothesis that p = 1.
O presente artigo busca compreender o fenômeno da violência entre "torcidas organizadas", a partir das justificativas de explicação dos atos de violências utilizadas pelas "autoridades públicas" e torcedores. Mostra, em síntese, que a violência produzida pelos grupos de torcedores é parte da dimensão cotidiana dos grandes centros urbanos na sociedade brasileira contemporânea, conseqüência do esvaziamento político-cultural-coletivo dos novos sujeitos sociais.
Objectives:
To review the current research on alcohol-related violence and sports participation.
Methods:
The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were used to identify relevant studies for inclusion. A search of six databases (EBSCOhost) was conducted.
Results:
A total of 6890 studies was were identified in the initial search. Of these, 11 studies met the inclusion criteria. The majority of the studies were from the US (n=10) and focused on collegiate athletes (n=7), adolescents (n=3), professional/former professional athletes (n=1).
Conclusion:
The reviewed research indicates higher rates of alcohol use and violence in athlete populations when compared against non-athlete populations. Masculinity, violent social identity and antisocial norms connected to certain sports stand out as potential factors that may impact the association between sport and violence in athlete populations.
Reports the method, results, and implications of some observational research conducted in 1989 in Sydney, Australia into 4 high-risk and 2 low-risk public pubs and clubs. The premises were particularly contrasted, as were violent and nonviolent occasions in the same venues. Violence was concentrated in specific places at specific times. It was related to complex interactions between aspects of patron mix; levels of comfort, boredom, and intoxication; and the behavior of bouncers. Violence was perpetuated by poor management, lax police surveillance, and inappropriate bureaucratic controls and legislation. Regularly violent venues should have their licenses canceled, and police should enforce laws regulating bouncers. Promotions that cause mass intoxication should be banned, but responsible serving practices on their own may not greatly influence levels of violence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
In a mathematical approach to hypothesis tests, we start with a clearly defined set of hypotheses and choose the test with the best properties for those hypotheses. In practice, we often start with less precise hypotheses. For example, often a researcher wants to know which of two groups generally has the larger responses, and either a t-test or a Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney (WMW) test could be acceptable. Although both t-tests and WMW tests are usually associated with quite different hypotheses, the decision rule and p-value from either test could be associated with many different sets of assumptions, which we call perspectives. It is useful to have many of the different perspectives to which a decision rule may be applied collected in one place, since each perspective allows a different interpretation of the associated p-value. Here we collect many such perspectives for the two-sample t-test, the WMW test and other related tests. We discuss validity and consistency under each perspective and discuss recommendations between the tests in light of these many different perspectives. Finally, we briefly discuss a decision rule for testing genetic neutrality where knowledge of the many perspectives is vital to the proper interpretation of the decision rule.
IntroductionBasic AnalysisOptimality ConditionsShifts in the Behavioral RelationsFinesSummary and Concluding Remarks
This research aimed to characterize young members of Brazilian organized. football fan groups (torcidas organizadas) considering their age, education level, marital status and family organization. We also aimed to describe and analyze their perception of violence in football, as well as their perception of the relationship between such violence and sports media. To achieve these goals, we adopted a methodology that is both quantitative and qualitative, combining bibliographic, documental and field research. Among other things, the results suggest that many generalizations made by the media about those fans do not find empirical support. © 2016, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul. All rights reserved.
The present study proposes an initial approach to a comparative study between supporter groups from Brazil (torcidas organizadas) and Argentina (hinchadas). The text presents a thick description that points to similarities and differences, in synchronic and diachronic terms, between both groups of football spectators. The paper focuses on each group's emergence, organizational framings, logics of belonging, and most significant practices and representations. Finally, it illustrates the contributions of this research to the construction of a public sociology of regional sport.
Soccer has a great social representation in many cultures. But the passion developed in the fans can born aggressive and violent behaviors in a moment that should be for fun, characterizing the deviant leisure, theme that needs more investigation. This qualitative research has a main goal to investigate, in the academics studies, the aggressive behavior of the organized fans and their consequences in the leisure time. By a bibliographical research, information were found in reference material, composed by books and thesis, besides the use of databases, with the key-words: leisure, cheerleaders, aggressiveness and violence. The results show that, independently of the genesis of an aggressive behavior, other factors could interfere. When inside a group, or depending on the social-historical context, the profile of the fans, the violence of each society, the media, the poor organization of sport and impunity, these factors can affect individual behavior, contributing to aggressive and violent manifestations in soccer context, inside the field and inside the organizations of the fans. This kind of manifestation leads to a smaller audience at the stadiums, and even creating limitations in activities of leisure context. These violent conducts can bring serious physics and/or psychological consequences. After all, is pointed the necessity of specific public policies involving leisure and the international events.
This chapter explores the ways in which reversal theory can provide an insight into the delinquent behavior of soccer hooligans. It emphasizes the importance of high arousal experiences as crucial factors in their motivation. Reversal theory provides the possibility for a real understanding of the motives behind such patterns of behavior to be grasped. This theory argues that the motivation behind many forms of delinquent behavior is associated with the enjoyment of high felt arousal in which excitement-seeking plays a major role. The high excitement associated with going to a soccer match begins to intensify on the way to the match. In reversal theory terms, the empathy that the fans feel with their team is exhibited in the form of vicarious emotional arousal, the novelty and uncertainty and the environmental stimuli described in the quotation contribute to the fans experience of pleasant high arousal. In addition to this is the negativistic or deviant behaviour, which often is exhibited as excited defiance and can in itself be enjoyable. The situation in the stadium produces a special experience reflected by specific emotional “states of being.”
Alcohol-approach tendencies have been associated with heavy drinking and play a role in the transition to alcohol abuse. Such cognitive biases might predict future alcohol use better under a low dose of alcohol. The aim of this prospective study was to investigate both the magnitude and the predictive power of alcohol-induced changes on approach-avoidance bias and bias-related cortical asymmetries during response preparation across heavy and light drinking adolescents. In heavy drinking adolescents greater approach-related asymmetry index in the beta-band was observed for soft-drink cues compared to alcohol ones and this increase was associated with increase in difficulty to regulate alcohol intake. Earlier findings demonstrated that young heavy drinkers hold both positive and negative implicit alcohol associations, reflecting an ambiguity towards alcohol. The increase in approach related beta-lateralization for soft-drink cues measured in this study may represent a compensatory effort for the weaker S-R mapping (approaching soft drink). The MRAA findings in this study may highlight a mechanism related to overcompensation due to ambivalent attitudes towards drinking in our heavy drinking sample who had greater problems to limit their alcohol intake compared to light drinkers. Moreover, a relatively strong approach soft-drink and weak approach alcohol reaction-time bias after alcohol predicted decreasing drinking; suggesting that the capacity to control the bias under alcohol could be a protective factor.
This article aims to discuss the theme of violence among football fans;in stadiums in the Public Health perspective. It was developed through a literature review and a consultation With the Public Health Department. and the Military Police of the State of Pernambuco. The consultation revealed the scarcity of data related to the subject, the sub-utilization of the existing data and the lack of,interchange among institutions to use them in search of the creation of joint reflection and action mechanisms in order to find solutions for the problem. 16 the materials collection, reference works were consulted, such as books, journals, and congress proceedings. Texts published in the last two decades in Portuguese and English were prioritized. Online databases of scientific literature were also consulted, like LILACS, MEDLINE, SCIELO, BIREME, among others, and the following describers were used: violence, football fans, organized supporters, football, public health. The article reflects on the possibility of proposals and tries to point ways with respect to a behavior change based on a better understanding of this current and complex phenomenon in the Brazilian society scenario.
A newly-developed measure of the expected effects of alcohol in provoking situations was examined in terms of its factor structure, differences by situation, and associations with barroom aggression in a sample of male postsecondary students. Participants rated the extent that 49 effects of alcohol would affect their reaction to one of three randomly assigned provoking situations (i.e., guy “hits on” your girlfriend, guy punches your friend, or guy shoves you over spilled drink). Principal component analysis identified three dimensions: Cognitive Impairment, Power/Aggression, and Hyper-Emotional effects. One-way analysis of variance revealed significantly lower means on each of the three scales for the “spilled drink” situation than for the other two situations. All three scales were associated with barroom aggression in multivariate logistic regression models. This new measure provides an important tool for understanding how people perceive the effects of alcohol on their own aggression and the extent that these effects differ by situation.
Soccer in Europe has been on a harmonization route alongside the development and enlargement of today's European Union. Especially within soccer fan culture surprisingly more common European features appear in behaviour, mainly due to the expanding international television coverage of top European matches. The suggested current pan-European soccer fan culture is seen as a micro-level approach to globalization, and what this essay will trace and document are some of the visible common traits of fan behaviour among football spectators throughout Europe, with reference mainly to the Danish scene. When the Danish national team supporters, later known as the Roligans, were awarded the UNESCO Fair Play Trophy after the European Championships in France in 1984, the Danish media titled them 'the World's Best Supporters'. Since then, a different and much stronger club supporter presence has been established and this change of the national supporter scene is analysed with a historic, social and pan-European focus
To most people it seems perfectly obvious that alcohol use is one of the main reasons why sports spectators exhibit violent behavior. However, most drinking among sports spectators does not result in violent behavior. Thus, the link between alcohol use and violent behavior among sports spectators is more complex than it seems. This paper organizes and reviews the literature on alcohol use and violent behavior among sports spectators. It is quite apparent that any attempt to understand alcohol use and violent behavior among sports spectators must consider a variety of social psychological factors. This paper examines nine such factors: thrill seeking/quest for excitement, impulsivity, frustration, anger, psychopathy, the false consensus effect, the Bedouin syndrome, team identification, and alcohol expectancies.
The use of dummy variables requires the imposition of additional constraints on the parameters of regression equations if determinate estimates are to be obtained. Among the possible constraints the most useful are (a) to set the constant term of the equation to zero, or (b) to omit one of the dummy variables from the equation. In working with a single system of classes either constraint can be used, and results from the application of one are readily derived from those obtained from the other. If several systems of classes are involved the best procedure is to delete one dummy variable from each system.
Football (or soccer) hooliganism is a complex, heterogeneous, and dynamic phenomenon that should be studied in its different social and historical contexts. Despite the vital importance of cultural, social, and historical specificity for fully grasping the nature and dynamics of spectator violence at football matches, some striking crossnational and cross-local similarities can be identified. Six fundamental features seem universal to the construction of “hooligan” identities: excitement and pleasurable emotional arousal, hard masculinity, territorial identifications, individual and collective management of reputation, a sense of solidarity and belonging, and representations of sovereignty and autonomy. The search for such commonalities allows researchers to develop an approach that transcends the isolated view of single manifestations of football hooliganism and identifies the features and mechanisms that are central to expressions of football-related violence.
Based on anonymous survey responses from 31 nurses, results showed that the average nurse extended her work breaks each week without authorization by over 25 minutes. Moreover, nursing personnel most likely to lapse over into unauthorized break time (a) scored reliably higher on a dishonesty test measuring attitudes, values, and perceptions toward theft and (b) had significantly higher scores on a burnout scale than nurses who strictly adhered to their work break schedules. Implications of these findings are discussed.
Systematic procedures for constructing confidence bounds and point estimates based on rank statistics are given for the two sample location parameter, two sample scale parameter and one sample location parameter problems.
The emergence of the magic number 2 in recent statistical literature is explained by adopting the predictive point of view of statistics with entropy as the basic criterion of the goodness of a fitted model. The historical development of the concept of entropy is reviewed and its relation to statistics is explained by examples. The importance of the entropy maximization principle as the basis of the unification of conventional and Bayesian statistics is discussed. (Author)
Italian soccer (aka football, or in Italian, calcio) fans are called tifosi, a nickname that equates their passion to the typhoid fever. This article gives a brief history of the ultras, the groups of hardcore tifosi that cheer, sing, protest and occasionally fight at soccer stadiums in Italy. These fans enact cultural performances that reflect Italian society and push society to change. The article decsribes the rivalry between Roman clubs A. S. Roma and S. S. Lazio as a prime example of a cultural performance. Italian Ultras culture is constantly evolving in response to changing economic and cultural conditions and opportunities. This article critiques these practices during the first part of the 21st century.
Data from the files of the Yale Cross-Cultural Survey showed adequate information on the drinking customs of 56 societies, distributed as to location and level of culture. It is found that the customary degree of insobriety of men in any society is positively associated with the type of subsistence economy: the more primitive the subsistence activity, the greater the degree of insobriety; and the customary degree of insobriety is positively associated with the measure of subsistence hazards, including hazards due to acculturation. Data are presented on types of beverage, age and sex differences and status differences, motivation, consequences of drinking, sexual behavior, aggression and social control of alcoholic aggression, anxiety and warfare, sorcery and insobriety, and patterns of drinking behavior. Bibliography of 257 references. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
This short paper seeks to explain the activities of Scottish fans in Genoa and Turin, during the 1990 World Cup, by drawing on some key concepts offered by contemporary writers in the field of post-modernism and post-structuralism. These writers include Foucault, Derrida, Barthes and Baudrillard. All emphasize a re-empowerment of agency, evading more conventional forms of domination: Foucault within the domain of enabling discourse, Derrida on the open interpretation of the sign's apparent meaning, Barthes on the ‘nature’ of jouissance and the body principle, and Baudrillard on the public toying with their media representation. It is argued that Scottish fan behaviour in Italy was structured by two opposing forms of ‘self-knowledge’, relating to either expressions of violent machismo or instrumentally ambassadorial conduct. The eventual triumph of the latter is most clearly shown through an application of Goffman's conception of ‘impression management’, as the social interaction of Scottish fans with other ‘teams’ in Italy is detailed chronologically. The paper concludes with some recommendations aimed at the relevant authorities, with a view to maximizing the internationalism of Scottish fans at future competitions.
Although a considerable body of experimental research supports the contention that alcohol facilitates aggression, some investigators have argued that these findings cannot be generalized to actual occurrences of aggression. Moreover, controversy continues concerning whether expectancies supporting alcohol's influence on aggression moderate the relationship. The present study is an event-based examination of the relationship between alcohol consumption, personality characteristics, contextual variables, and the occurrence and severity of male-to-male bar aggression. Men (n=190) who experienced either a physically aggressive episode or an incident of threat in a bar were assessed with respect to stable individual difference factors, such as personality factors, trait anger, and alcohol-aggression expectancies. The participants were also interviewed about the circumstances surrounding the most severe episode of bar aggression or threat that occurred in the past year. Logisitic regression analyses indicated that while alcohol consumption did not predict the occurrence of aggression, heavy alcohol consumption by the participant and the opponent was associated with aggression severity and physical harm, and that this relationship was present after controlling for personality and situational factors. The belief that alcohol was a cause of aggression was associated with the occurrence of aggression, but it was not related to severity or harm, and did not appear to moderate the alcohol-aggression relationship. These results suggest that alcohol expectancies may facilitate the occurrence of aggression. However, the results also support the contention that alcohol use may contribute to the severity of aggression occuring in bar contexts. Aggr. Behav. 29:346–365, 2003. © 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc..
It has been claimed that the rational choice perspective, which sees criminal behavior as the outcome of decisions and choices made by the offender, can provide a useful framework for analyzing crime control policies. By developing the concept of “choice-structuring properties,” which refers to the constellation of opportunities, costs, and benefits attaching to particular kinds of crime, this paper attempts to develop rational choice theory in order to improve analysis of crime displacement—a concept frequently invoked by the critics of opportunity-reducing measures of crime prevention.
Alcohol consumption increases aggression, but only in some drinkers. This study examines how expectancies for alcohol-induced aggression and dispositional aggression moderate the link between alcohol consumption and alcohol-related violence, building on previous studies that have employed limited measures of alcohol-related violence and included few women. A sample of 212 men and women reported their alcohol consumption, alcohol-aggression expectancies, dispositional aggression, and incidents of alcohol-related aggressive acts. Alcohol-aggression expectancies and quantity of alcohol consumed interacted to predict alcohol-related aggression. Alcohol-aggression expectancies covaried with alcohol-related aggressive acts, particularly in heavier drinkers. Dispositional aggression also correlated with alcohol-related aggression among heavier drinkers. These results help identify that alcohol might increase aggression only among heavy drinkers who expect alcohol to increase aggression or who are dispositionally aggressive. Aggr. Behav. 32:517–527, 2006. © 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
The non-parametric Mann–Whitney (MW) statistical test for assessing the significance of a shift in median or mean requires a tested series to be serially independent. However, hydrological time series such as water quality, streamflow, and others may frequently display serial correlation. In such cases, the existence of serial correlation might alter the ability of the test to detect a shift in mean. This study investigates this issue by means of the Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results indicate that: (i) when there is no shift or a moderate shift in mean, the existence of positive serial correlation will increase the possibility to reject the null hypothesis of no shift while it might be true; and the existence of negative serial correlation will reduce the possibility to detect a shift; (ii) when a bigger shift occurs in a time series, for a series with smaller sample size, the influence of serial correlation on the test is similar to that in (i), but it is much less than that in (i); while for a series with larger sample size, the influence of serial correlation on the test is opposite to (i), i.e., positive serial correlation reduces the power of the test for detecting a shift while negative serial correlation slightly increases the power of the test for identifying a shift; and (iii) removal of serial correlation by pre-whitening can effectively remove the serial correlation and eliminate the influence of the serial correlation on the test.
The current study set to examine whether there are inter-generational and gender-based differences between family members self-assessing their ability to drive under normal conditions and while under the influence of either alcohol or drugs. Participants were 135 young-adults and both their parents, consisting 45 family triads, who received self-assessment questionnaires relating to their driving skills in various road scenarios. Each family triad was randomly assigned to one of three groups: either requested to base the assessments on normal driving conditions, or under the influence of either drugs or alcohol, thus forming a control group, and two experimental groups (alcohol and drugs), respectively. The findings indicate the assessments of both the alcohol and drugs groups were more severe than those of the control group. The alcohol group assessments were less strict than the drug group assessment (non-significantly). Inter-generational differences indicated that the parents' driving-skills assessments were lower than those of their offspring, corresponding with previous findings (Elkind, 1967; Finn and Bragg, 1986). A significant within-subject interaction has been found between the respondent's gender and familial relations regarding the self-assessment of driving skills: male respondents assessed better driving skills compared to the self estimates of both parents (which did not significantly differ). In contrast, female respondents' estimates did not differ from their fathers' and both fathers' and daughters' estimates were significantly higher than that of the mothers in each family.
Let x and y be two random variables with continuous cumulative distribution functions f and g. A statistic U depending on the relative ranks of the x's and y's is proposed for testing the hypothesis . Wilcoxon proposed an equivalent test in the Biometrics Bulletin, December, 1945, but gave only a few points of the distribution of his statistic. Under the hypothesis the probability of obtaining a given U in a sample of and is the solution of a certain recurrence relation involving n and m. Using this recurrence relation tables have been computed giving the probability of U for samples up to . At this point the distribution is almost normal. From the recurrence relation explicit expressions for the mean, variance, and fourth moment are obtained. The 2rth moment is shown to have a certain form which enabled us to prove that the limit distribution is normal if go to infinity in any arbitrary manner. The test is shown to be consistent with respect to the class of alternatives for every x.