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Flood and Flood Management in Bangladesh

  • Earth & Environmental Science, University of Dhaka

Abstract and Figures

Bangladesh is lowlaying deltaic country with a complex active delta; it has numerous networks of rivers, canals and coast creeks with extensive flood plains through which surface water of about 1.7 million sq-km drains annually. Floods are normal monsoon phenomena in the deltaic plains of Bangladesh. Although the livelihood of the people in Bangladesh is well adapted to normal monsoon flood, the damages due to inundation, riverbank erosion or breach of embankment, etc. still occur in various regions in almost every monsoon. They often have disastrous consequences: major damage to infrastructure, great loss of property, crops, cattle, poultry etc., human suffering and impoverishment of the poor. With every major flood in Bangladesh, food security and poverty situation adversely affected. The characteristic of rivers varies from region to region. FFWC, BWDB monitored the flood situation during the monsoon and also beyond the monsoon if situation demand. The FFWC has issued daily flood bulletin from May to October with a forecast lead-time of 24hrs, 48hrs and 72hrs, 96 hrs. and 120 hrs. (upto 5 days) along with warning messages and flood inundation maps. Mobile based IVR system improved dissemination significantly. Also 16 new flood forecasting points has been added in the system. These are the new efforts to make more localized flood forecast. In addition to deterministic flood forecasts up-to 5-days lead time, FFWC issued medium range upto 10-days lead-time probabilistic forecasts at 38 locations. FFWC has attempted to use satellite based (Jason-2 Satellite Altimeter Data under SERVIR programme of NASA) information of the upper catchment with free download facility for extending the flood forecast lead time upto 8 days. In this study was done for the analysis the flood forecasting, management. The climate change and extreme climatic impacts are increased in the recent years. The flood in Bangladesh is common but the secondary data are shown that the flood forecasting is well developed but problems are information dissemination and communication. The community doesn’t involve the dissection making and warning system of the flood. The community based early warning system has been developed.
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Flood and Flood Management
in Bangladesh
Term Paper on
Course: DSMHT 403 Climate Modelling and Adaptation
Submitted to
A.K.M. Saiful Islam
Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)
Submitted By
Mirza Shihab Uddin FH - 001
Md. Raisul Islam Shamrat SH - 008
Md. Syadur Rahaman SH - 027
Dept. of Disaster Science and Management
Faculty of Earth and Environmental Sciences
University of Dhaka
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Table of Contents
1. Introduction............................................................................................. 2
2. Flood and Flood Management Bangladesh ............................................ 4
3. Methodology ........................................................................................... 7
4. Forecasting .............................................................................................. 8
4.1. Observation and Prediction .................................................................... 8
4.2. Early Warning and Dissemination ........................................................ 11
5. Impact Analysis .................................................................................... 12
6. Policy Massage and Recommendation ................................................. 14
7. Conclusion ............................................................................................ 14
8. References ............................................................................................. 16
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1. Introduction
Climate change is the reality and Bangladesh is the most vulnerable country around the world.
The frequency and intensity of natural hazard are increasing day by day parallel to the climate
change. Every year this country loss a large part of GDP as an economic loss. The flood was the
most frequent disaster in this country and every year face this disaster. The Climate change and
the geographic location makes more vulnerable to the flood also some socio-economic settings are
increased the level of vulnerability. Due to the vulnerability and the frequent flood the losses are
Naturally Bangladesh is a low laying country stand on the foot hill of the Himalayan mountain.
Bangladesh lies approximately between 20o30’ and 26o40’ north latitude and 88o03’ and
92o40’ east longitude. It is one of the biggest active deltas in the world with an area of
about 1,47,570 sq.-km (BWDB, 2014). The west, north and most part of the east are India border,
some part of south-eastern area was Myanmar border and the Bay of Bengal is in the south. The
country is under sub-tropical monsoon climate, annual average precipitation is 2,300 mm, varying
from 1,200 mm in the north-west to over 5,000 mm in the north-east (BWDB, 2014). It has 405
rivers including 57 transboundary rivers, among them 54 originated from India including three
Figure -1: GBM(Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Basin)
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major rivers the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna other three rivers originated from
Myanmar (BWDB, 2011). Monsoon flood inundation of about 20% to 25% area of the country is
assumed beneficial for crops, ecology and environment, inundation of more than that causing direct
and indirect damages and considerable inconveniences to the population.
Naturally Bangladesh is low laying flood plain country with only few hill in south-east and the
north-east part. Generally, the ground slop of this country extend from north to south with elevation
rand 1-60 m above MSL (BWDB, 2014). The country consists of the flood plains of the Ganges,
the Brahmaputra and the Meghna rivers and their numerous tributaries and distributaries. The
Ganges and the Brahmaputra join together at Aricha-Goalundo and is known as the Padma River.
The river Meghna joining the Padma near Chandpur flows to the Bay of Bengal as the Meghna
River. The Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river are generating a basin named GBM which
cover almost most of the area of this country and drained the huge runoff through this three river
system. The catchment of this basin approximately 1721300 sq.-km which only about 7% lies in
Bangladesh and the rest 93% (JRCB, 2016) Figure -1) are outside this country also around 100900
million m3 (BWDB, 2014)water pass through this river system during the rainy season. Most of
the rivers are characterized by having sandy bottoms, flat slopes, substantial meandering, banks
susceptible to erosion and channel shifting.
The Brahmaputra is named Jamuna after entrancing the Bangladesh at Bahadurabad above
Bahadurabad the length approximately 2900 km (BWDB, 2014)with travel in the complex
mountain terrain bordering north-east India and China it bends through a series of gorges. The
Gages river about 2600 km to its confluence with the Brahmaputra-Jamuna at Aricha-Goalundo ad
catchment about 90700 sq.-km (BWDB, 2014). and the Meghna was entrance in Bangladesh at
Amalshid in Sylhet district and its meet into Padma at Chandpur which came after meeting the
Ganges and Brahmaputra at Aricha-Goalundo then named after Chandpur as Meghna and flow
water into Bay of Bangla.
The Flood Forecasting and Warning Center(FFWC) under the Bangladesh Water Development
Board(BWDB) mainly taken the responsibility of the flood prediction and early warning also flood
management. The flood management works is done by the Bangladesh Water Development
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Over the last century global mean surface temperature has increased .4-.8o C larger than the
estimation of Second
Assessment Report(SAR) of
the IPCC for the period of
1994 (Mirza, 2002). The
change of temperature or
global warming has increased
the frequency and magnitude
of the natural disaster like the
flood. Some future scenario
has been developed through
several modelling around the
world. The four different scenario are face for different scenario of carbon emission as climate
change. The Figure -2 has showed the scenario where the over the period 1990 to 2100 the global
projected to increase by 1.4-5.8oC (Mirza, 2002; Mirza, 2011). Under climate change scenarios, it
is feared that about 18 per cent of current low-lying flooded areas will face higher levels of
flooding, while about 1216 per cent of new areas will become flood prone. Therefore, in a normal
flood year, the extent of flooding may increase from 23 per cent to 39 per cent, while over two-
thirds of the landmass of the country could be engulfed by flood in a catastrophic flood event
(Mallick, et al., 2005; Mirza, 2011). The rise of MSL has been increase the height of flood
2. Flood and Flood Management Bangladesh
Bangladesh experiences four different types of floods: flash floods, riverine floods, rain floods
and storm-surge floods (Mirza, 2002; BWDB, 2011). Flash floods occur in the eastern and northern
rivers, along the borders of Bangladesh which characterized sudden sharp rise of water level.
Riverine floods from the spilling of major rivers and their tributaries and distributaries generally
rise and fall slowly over 1020 days or more and can cause extensive damage to property and the
loss of life (Mirza, 2002). Depth and extent of floods and associated damage are extensive when
the major rivers reach their peaks simultaneously. Rain floods are caused by high intensity local
rainfall of long duration in the monsoon. From year to year, the extent and depth of rain water
flooding varies with the monsoon, depending on the amount and intensity of local precipitation
and current water levels in the major rivers that control drainage from the land. Storm surge floods
Figure -2 The Climate Change Scenario
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occur in the coastal area of Bangladesh, which consists of large estuaries, extensive tidal flats, and
low-lying islands.
Historically Bangladesh is low laying flood prone country, though ancient year to present year
the several method and systems are used for the flood management. In ancient period to colonial
period the flood management limited to the embankment and cannel digging, road link, river link
when flood management base under the concept of agriculture, crop production. In colonial period
there some changes in flood management but these are not sustained and proper. The series of
devastating flood in 1950 than first foreign advisory mission came that name of Krug Mission
1956-57. The first masterplan developed in 1964 and started coastal embankment project 1968 as
a result of Krug Mission. With the suggestion of Krug Mission, a national scale Flood Control and
Drainage(FCD) project has been taken and this FCD project continue till creation of Flood Action
Programme(FAP). This method of flood management was not proper and sustainable for
Bangladesh thus this can’t help in flood management and we see the more devastating flood after
the existing of embankment.
Table -1 Year-wise Flood Affected Area in Bangladesh (Mirza, 2002)
Flood affected area
Flood affected area
Flood affected area
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Flood forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) of Bangladesh Water Development (BWDB)
was established as a permanent entity in 1972 with the help of international aid. Since its inception
UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) and WMO (World Meteorological
Organization) supported different activities of FF&WC through different projects till 1992. During
the period 1991-1995 the center again received assistance from DANIDA through a component of
the Flood Action Plan (FAP), to improve and expand the flood forecasting and warning services.
Currently DANIDA assisted project "Consolidation and strengthening of flood forecasting and
warning services" was implemented for the period Jan’2000 to Dec.'2004. The project has started
functioning since mid-January 2000 (BWDB, 2011; Mirza, 2011). The next attempt to promote
integrated development was the Flood Action Plan (FAP 19891995), a hotly debated venture. The
plan, a series of studies and pilots aimed at developing an adequate response to the regularly
recurring floodsand droughts was a multi-donor initiative after the calamitous floods of 1987
and 1988. Much has been written about the plan, with most of the criticism centered on the initial
(overly) ambitious plans to construct huge embankments on the major rivers. Major positive
outcomes of the initiative included the formulation of guidelines for participation and
environmental impact assessment and a better understanding of flood management and the effect
of flood control and drainage on fisheries. has been formed and changed the flood management
paradigm to more focused on pre disaster flood preparedness rather than the post disaster flood
management as relief and rehabilitation (Mallick, et al., 2005). The several law act and policy
developed through this time Bangladesh Government has already finalized Flood Management
Strategy in 1995, National Water Policy in 1998 and National Water Management Plan in 2004
(Hossain & Katiyar, 2006; BWDB, 2014).
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The issues of flood management should be considered from different angles of improvement of
quality of life, impact on physical environment, socio-economic condition and environmental
preservation etc. It is usually found that different methods or techniques are practiced in different
parts of the world to tackle the flood problems. Bangladesh Practices two type of flood
management structural and non-structural flood management. The structural measures are mainly
engineering structure build for protect the flood such as Flood Embankment, Channel
Improvement, River Training, Coastal Embankment etc. The non-structural option consists of the
Flood Plain Zoning & Management; Policies for infrastructure Planning and Development in the
flood plains; Flood Proofing; Disaster Preparedness & Response Planning and Flood Forecasting
and Warning.
3. Methodology
These study was done based on the secondary source as well as the literature review. The
secondary source is the mainly GoB report provided by Bangladesh Water Development Board is
the main body provided the national flood information. Every year BWDB publish annual flood
report which are available in the Flood Forecasting and Warning Center website. The national and
international NGOs and financial institutions are also publishing the flood report and also flood
Figure - -3 History of Flood Management
Source: Adopt from (Haskoning, 2003)
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data. The free available journal paper is used for the analysis and find out the present flood
management model. The FFWC, BMD (Bangladesh Meteorological Department), BWDB website
are used for study the flood and flood management in Bangladesh.
4. Forecasting
A successful adaptation measures are coming from the successful observation and the prediction
of the future scenario of the event also the Successful adaptation that balances effectiveness,
efficiency and equity through decision-making structures that promote learning and are perceived
to be legitimate is an ideal from which much adaptation inevitably diverges (Adgr, et al., 2005). A
rapid development of computer technology, computer modelling and wide range of satellite
imagery are helpful for an accurate and long term flood forecasting. The mid-term (5 to 14 days)
and long term (monthly, seasonal) (Hossain, 2003) flood forecasting are helpful for the reduces the
direct and indirect damage.
The worldwide several method and systems are used for the flood prediction and early warning.
In Bangladesh we use mainly two range of flood forecast one is the medium range another is the
long range also have the different benefit of this two different type of forecast. The medium range
forecast is helpful for the agricultural sector like transplanting and harvesting of the crop. The long
range forecast helpful for the planning and decision making.
4.1. Observation and Prediction
The better flood management depended upon the better observation and prediction. The flood
hazard is a hydro-metrological hazard which are controlled by several hydrological, metrological
and physical parameter of the flooded area. The observation of several parameters like rainfall,
river flow, geotechnical feature and other meteorological feature of the basin area. Bangladesh,
situated at the most downstream region of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin which
only 7% are exist in Bangladesh rest 93% (JRCB, 2016) are outside the country, this complicated
geopolitical basin location are create the problem of flood observation and prediction which final
product of early-warning (Hossain & Katiyar, 2006; BWDB, 2011). The characteristics of peak
discharge are depending on the basin characteristics also the precipitation pattern are highly
influenced by their characteristics. A time lag between rainfall and the streamflow are depending
on the size and shape of basin, floods can be forecast at a point downstream of a large basin if the
river flow at some point upstream is known in conjunction with a hydrologic model. Solution the
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problem of transboundary river and rainfall data there needed a political commitment and the
solution of down and upstream country of the same basin. Another solution of this problem of
satellite data.
The discharge of different basins is rise in different times like the Brahmaputra River starts
rising in March due to snow melt in the Himalayas while the Ganges discharge begins to rise in
early June with the onset of the monsoon. Monsoon rainfall occurs in the Brahmaputra and Meghna
basins earlier than the Ganges basin due to the pattern of progression of the monsoon air mass
(Mirza, 2002; BWDB, 2014). The flood peak of different basin occurs in different time in a season,
the he Brahmaputra River occur in July and August, while the peaks in the Ganges occur in August
and September (Mirza, 2002; BWDB, 2014). The time of peak discharge is an important factor for
occurrence the flood. In 1998, the peak discharges in the Brahmaputra and Ganges occurred only
2 days apart (Hossain, 2003; Mirza, 2002). As a result, the entire central region of Bangladesh near
the confluence point of the two rivers suffered an unprecedented flood. A similar simultaneous
occurrence of peak flows of the two rivers also occurred in 1988 that also caused a devastating
flood (BWDB, 2011; Mirza, 2002).
Figure -4 Exist Flood Early Warning Model 2006
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In Bangladesh prediction of water level is the main interest of flood management. The physical
processes involve in generation of discharge from the precipitation which ultimately influence the
water levels in a river system are highly complex, nonlinear and uncertain. The FFWC under
BWDB are taken the responsibility of the flood observation, prediction, early warning and
dissemination. After 1972 formation of FFWC there are several changes of methods and
technology of flood observation and prediction. The station based manually collected data and
observed are the starting method of FFWC of Flood forecasting. In 1992 the FFWC adopted
MIKE11-F model for flood forecasting with one-day lead time which was replaced by MIKE11
Super Model with GIS in 1995-96 which given Two-day lead time forecast. Through different
development process the FFWS has been massive developed form 2012-14 when the lead time
increased 5 days and lead time extend 10 days using PFF (Probabilistic Flood Forecasting) also
adopt IVR system and improve in LAN and display (BWDB, 2014). In 2014 FF at 9 locations with
lead time upto 8 days Using free satellite (JASON - 2 of NASA) water elevation data, on pilot
basis in Ganges and Brahmaputra Basins in the north, north-west and central part (BWDB, 2014;
USAID, 2008; Hossain, et al., 2014).
Hydrological data is received from the field networks of BWDB. From April to September,
water level data is collected five times daily from 86 stations, while rainfall information is collected
once a day. Data is also collected from the automatic telemetry system operating in four stations
around the capital city of Dhaka. Limited data on water level and rainfall forecasts are received
from Indian stations through the telepointer link of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department
Estimates of the rise/fall of river water levels and rainfall in the catchments beyond the national
boundaries are inputs for computer models. To estimate the rainfall situation, imagery from the
NOAA satellite at FFWC, and from the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) at
SPARRSO are collected and used along with
water level forecast and surface charts with
pressure isocline from BMD. The collected data
are fed into the computer database and checked.
The trend of the hydrograph extrapolated up to
the period of forecast from the levels of the
previous few days, the response characteristics
of the rivers, the effect of rainfall on water level,
Figure--5 Flood Forecasting Dissemination System in
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and the data related to water level and forecast received from India are all considered as the basis
for the preparation of flood forecasts.
Output /Prediction. After preparation, the model is run for 30 to 40 minutes to calculate the
forecasts. These forecasts are used in flood bulletins and for the preparation of flood warning
messages. During the monsoon period, FFWC runs daily flood bulletins, special as well as monthly
and annual flood reports, and conducts flood mapping. During the dry period, it conducts weekly
and regional flood monitoring, and produces out a dry season bulletin. Figure-5shows the outputs
of FFWC.
4.2. Early Warning and Dissemination
The flood forecast bulletins is prepared upto 5 days for important locations and region-wise
flood warning messages. The bulletins are disseminated to more than 600 recipients including
different ministries, offices (central & district level), individuals, print & electronic news media,
development partners, research organizations, NGO’s etc. including President’s & Prime
Minister’s Secretariat. Whenever, the forecast river stage crosses the DL, the concern field offices
and limited key officials are informed through mobile SMS. Interactive Voice Response (IVR)
through mobile has been initiated since July 2011 through Teletalk and from 2013 all
the mobile operators started the
IVR. Figure 2.7 shows the
dissemination flow from FFWC
and Table 2.4 shows the product
dissemination routes. Email and
Internet routes have been
developed in the Consolidation
and Strengthening of Flood
Forecast and Warning Services
(CSFFWS) project, and are taking
over somewhat from the
traditional methods of hard copy
and fax. Both mediums lend themselves to mass distribution of warning messages and, hence, are
very cost effective.
Figure -6: The Station Based Water Level Data and forecast Dhaleswari
River at Elasinghat
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The FFWS has been an active LAN services where any one can browse and find the bulletin and
warning information. Where several types of information are found among them the flood bulletin
are found in monsoon season May to October. The bulletin and forecasting are station based where
are provide the station information where are present the present water level also shows the Danger
Level(DL) and Recorded Height Water Level(RHWL). Figure 6 shows an 8 days forecast/early
warning in a Elasinghat point at Dhaleswari River. FFWC also provide the inundation map during
the monsoon period which also shows the overall country inundation level and that only shows
only the inundation parameter.
5. Impact Analysis
Naturally Bangladesh is the home of natural disaster and its impact of natural disaster are very
high. With the large scale threat of natural disaster, the climate change increased the impact of this
natural disaster geometrically. Approximately 75% of total population are lives in the flood hazard
prone area and most of this people are dependents on agricultural for their livelihood (Brouwer, et
al., 2007). The socioeconomic activity and the underline vulnerability are driving a crucial role in
flood damage and loss. About 15.5% of our total GDP are came from the agricultural sector and
most of livelihood are run by the agricultural sector in rural area(WB). These economic settings
are make more vulnerable to the flood. In Rural are where proper sanitation and other utility
services are not available ant this community are vulnerable community in flood hazard. Thus the
post flood impacts are more severe than the during the flood. The 1988, 1998, 2004 are
catastrophic flooding years which inundate almost 60% of total country duration nearly 3 months
(Brouwer, et al., 2007). The increased volume of rainfall caused by climate change during the past
decades has intensified the flood problem in this part of the world. The population expected to be
hardest hit by flood disaster is the poor people who lack adequate means to take protective
measures and who also have very little capacity to cope with the loss of property and income
(IPCC, 2001).
Bangladesh experience flood almost every year with considerable damage among them 1954,
1955, 1974, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007 all caused enormous damages to properties and
considerable loss of life (BWDB, 2014). The floods 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007 caused
heavy damages (BWDB, 2014; Mirza, 2002). The 1987 flood completely or partially damaged
2.06 million houses (Mirza, 2002) and Paddy crop (Aman
) was severely damaged (losses
Aman = Local Rice Varity
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estimated at 0.8 million tons): more than 24 million people were homeless and starving (Mallick,
et al., 2005). The 1988 in 1988 was more devastating than that of 1987: two-thirds of the country
were submerged, directly affecting 45 million people in 40 of 64 districts. Over 2.5 million people
in Dhaka were left stranded during the flood, living for weeks with inadequate food, drinking water,
sanitation, shelter and healthcare and 12.8 million households are destroyed (Mirza, 2002; Mallick,
et al., 2005). The flood of 1998 is considered as one of the longest and worst natural disasters ever
experienced in Bangladesh, lasting a total of 65 days from early July to mid-September. Over 67
per cent of the landmass was flooded, displacing over 1 million people, damaging 16,000 km of
roads and 4,500 km of embankment, and destroying 500,000 ha of cropland. An estimated 2.4
million houses were completely or partially destroyed (Mallick, et al., 2005; Mirza, 2002). Among
these, the 1998 flood damage was the worst in history, totaling in the range of US$ 22.8 billion
(Mirza, 2002). During the period 1954 1999, floods killed 11,571 people in Bangladesh, of which
7109 people were killed during the floods of1987, and 1988 (Mirza, 2002; Hossain & Katiyar,
2006). The flood 2004 and 2007 cover 55,000 and 62,000 sq.-km which are 38% and 42% of area
of the country and taken a large scale damage Figure -1.
A post disaster scenario 1988 flood in Bangladesh are shown that the most of the people are
affected by the diarrhoea also other water born and skin disease are spread out break (Siddique, et
al., 1991). The rate of illness among 464700 people around Bangladesh diarrhoea was 34.7% most
of the watery diarrhoea which was the secondary impact of flood hazard. The other diseases are
Figure -7: Rate of Illness Among 46.470 Person
During Flood 1988 Bangladesh (Siddique, et al.,
Figure- -8 Causes of death among 154 persons of all ages in
Bhuapur Upazila During the flood 1998 (Siddique, et al., 1991)
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also negligible most of them are infectious and skin disease which was controlled by the flood
(Siddique, et al., 1991). The 154 death reported during flood period (between 28 August and 26
October 1998) of severe flood affected upazila Bhuapur upazila under Tangail District 60 mill
northeast from capital Dhaka and stand eastern bank of the Jamuna (Siddique, et al., 1991).
6. Policy Massage and Recommendation
Bangladesh is fast growing developing country. Last two decades there are several policies,
institution, and low has been developed for disaster management. Due to the climate change last
three decades the frequency, intensity of flood is increased and create more damage. Bangladesh
GoB invest a larger amount of budget for flood management. Without proper implementation lack
of resource, the flood management system doesn’t work properly. Some recommendation are done
Market based flood management
Increased institutional capacities
Adopt the permanent solution
Changes the policy that the insurance policy can be developed.
Active involvement of the community
Strengthening the local government
There have been documented adaptations in markets such as insurance and reinsurance, coastal
planning, health interventions, built environment, water resources, and adjustments and
adaptations within resource-based livelihoods. The present process of national-level planning for
adaptation by developed and developing countries represents a major resource effort in anticipatory
planning and provides a first guide to its potential sustainability.
7. Conclusion
The flood problem in Bangladesh is extremely complex. The country is an active delta; it has
numerous networks of rivers, canals and coast creeks with extensive flood plains through which
surface water of about 1.7 million sq-km drains annually. Floods are normal monsoon phenomena
in the deltaic plains of Bangladesh. Although the livelihood of the people in Bangladesh is well
adapted to normal monsoon flood, the damages due to inundation, riverbank erosion or breach of
embankment, etc. still occur in various regions in almost every monsoon. They often have
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disastrous consequences: major damage to infrastructure, great loss of property, crops, cattle,
poultry etc., human suffering and impoverishment of the poor. With every major flood in
Bangladesh, food security and poverty situation adversely affected. The characteristic of rivers
varies from region to region.
FFWC, BWDB monitored the flood situation during the monsoon and also beyond the monsoon
if situation demand. The FFWC has issued daily flood bulletin from May to October with a forecast
lead-time of 24hrs, 48hrs and 72hrs, 96 hrs. and 120 hrs. (upto 5 days) along with warning
messages and flood inundation maps. Mobile based IVR system improved dissemination
significantly. Also 16 new flood forecasting points has been added in the system. These are the
new efforts to make more localized flood forecast. In addition to deterministic flood forecasts upto
5-days lead time, FFWC issued medium range upto 10-days lead-time probabilistic forecasts at 38
locations. FFWC has attempted to use satellite based (Jason-2 Satellite Altimeter Data under
SERVIR programme of NASA) information of the upper catchment with free download facility
for extending the flood forecast lead time upto 8 days.
In this study was done for the analysis the flood forecasting, management. The climate change
and extreme climatic impacts are increased in the recent years. The flood in Bangladesh is common
but the secondary data are shown that the flood forecasting is well developed but problems are
information dissemination and communication. The community doesn’t involve the dissection
making and warning system of the flood. The community based early warning system has been
16 | P a g e
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... In normal flooding, farmers' cropping practices become well adapted, and in a damaging flood, the water rises earlier, higher, more rapidly, or later than farmers expect when they decide which crops to grow on their different types of land (Brammer, 1990). Monsoon flood inundation of about 20-25 percent area of the country is assumed beneficial for crops, ecology, and environment (FFWC, 2019; Islam et al., 2017). Because floods provide water for crop cultivation, restore the groundwater level, restock soil quality, and provide water for the fisheries. ...
... The finding of this study is very relevant to the existing literature. According to Islam et al. (2017) andFFWC (2019), inundation of about 20-25 percent area of the country by monsoon flood is assumed beneficial for crops, ecology, and environment, inundation of more than that may cause direct and indirect harms and significant problems to the socio-economic status of the population. As already mentioned, floods are affecting Bangladesh almost every year. ...
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Flood is responsible for the agricultural production scheme and livelihood well-being in Bangladesh. It is the most frequent catastrophe that affects crop production in terms of area coverage and yield. However, a normal flood is beneficial for the ecology and environment. As rice is the most important crop for sustaining the food security of the country, this study identified the threshold level of flooding for rice area coverage and production. The study used the time series data of annual rice area coverage, production, and flooding area in a well-established threshold regression model. The empirical results expose that flooding 22 percent of the geographical area is the threshold value for rice area coverage and production in Bangladesh. Up to the threshold level (22 percent), a one square kilometer increase in flooding would increase the rice area coverage by 31 hectares, as flooding would bring more land under cultivation. Beyond the threshold limit, a one square kilometer increase in flooding would reduce the rice area coverage by 2 hectares. On the other hand, the production of rice would increase by 492 tons with a one square kilometer increase in flooding up to the threshold limit. However, the rice production would reduce by 70 tons if a one square kilometer increase flooding above the threshold limit. On top of that, both the rice area coverage and production showed increasing trends with the increase in flooding level in the last few years. The reasons behind this are government supports, subsidies, incentives, and stress coping strategies towards accelerating national production to overcome the effects of the flood to sustain national food security; development of stress-tolerant and high yielding modern rice varieties by the research organizations; and replacing the local varieties with these modern varieties by the farmers and extension workers in Bangladesh.
Climate change is the reality and Bangladesh is the most vulnerable country across the world. The frequency and intensity of natural hazards are increasing day by day similar to climate change. Every year this country loss an enormous part of GDP as an economic loss. The flood is the most recurrent disaster in our country and every year face this disaster. Climate change and its unique geographic location make it more vulnerable to the floods also some socioeconomic settings are increased the higher level of exposure. The floods have caused devastation in Bangladesh throughout history, particularly during the years 1966, 1970,1987,1988,1998. In 2007 South Asian floods also affected a large percentage of Bangladesh portion. Every year about 26,000 km2 area is flooded. Bangladesh is a country of rivers having an area of near about 144,000 sq. km.; the environment and livelihood of 150 million people are primarily dependent on rivers and its resources. There are 230 rivers which subjugate about 7% of the total land area of Bangladesh. The country is significant for the Bengal delta, formed by the complex influence of three main river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna. Bangladesh is being the lowermost riparian country with low topography in the basin, these three main rivers discharge topography in the basin, and three main rivers release into the Bay of Bengal through the heart of Bangladesh. This paper will focus on how to prevent flood and mitigate in Bangladesh perspective.
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Recent work by Biancamaria (Geophysical Research Letters, 2011) has demonstrated the potential of satellite altimetry to forecast incoming transboundary flow for downstream nations by detecting river levels at locations in upstream nations. Using the Ganges-Brahmaputra (GB) basin as an example, we assessed the operational feasibility of using JASON-2 satellite altimetry for forecasting such transboundary flow at locations further inside the downstream nation of Bangladesh by propagating forecasts derived from upstream (Indian) locations through a hydrodynamic river model. The 5-day forecast of river levels at upstream boundary points inside Bangladesh were used to initialize daily simulation of the hydrodynamic river model and yield the 5-day forecast river level further downstream inside Bangladesh. The forecast river levels were then compared with the 5-day-later “nowcast” simulation by the river model based on in-situ river level at the upstream boundary points in Bangladesh. Results show that JASON-2 retains good fidelity at 5-day lead forecast with an average RMSE (relative to nowcast) ranging from 0.5 m to 1.5 m and a mean bias (underestimation) of 0.25 m to 1.25 m in river water level estimation. Based on the proof-of-concept feasibility, a 4 month-long capacity building of the Bangladesh flood forecasting agency was undertaken. This facilitated a 20-day JASON-2 based forecasting of flooding during Aug 1, 2012 to Aug 20, 2012 up to a 5 day lead time in a real-time operational environment. Comparison against observed water levels at select river stations revealed an average error of forecast ranging from –0.4 m to 0.4 m and an RMSE ranging from 0.2 m to 0.7 m. In general, this study shows that satellite altimeter such as JASON-2 can indeed be an efficient and practical tool for building a robust forecasting system for transboundary flow.
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The Bayesian Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology, previously used in rainfall-runo ff modelling, is applied to the distributed problem of predicting the space and time varying probabilities of inundation of all points on a flood plain. Probability estimates are based on conditioning predictions of Monte Carlo realizations of a distributed quasi-two- dimensional flood routing model using known levels at sites along the reach. The methodology can be applied in the flood forecasting context for which the iV-step ahead inundation probability estimates can be updated in real time using telemetered information on water levels. It is also shown that it is possible to condition the N- step ahead forecasts in real time using the (uncertain) on-line predictions of the downstream water levels at the end of the reach obtained from an adaptive transfer function model calibrated on reach scale inflow and outflow data.
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There exists a strong need to explore simulation techniques that not only represent complex dynamic systems in a realistic way but also allow the involvement of end users in model development to increase their confidence in the modeling process. System dynamics, a feedback-based object-oriented simulation approach, is presented for modeling reservoir operations. The increased speed of model development, the trust developed in the model due to user participation, the possibility of group model development, and the effective communication of model results are main strengths of this approach. The ease of model modification in response to changes in the system and the ability to perform sensitivity analysis make this approach more attractive compared with systems analysis techniques for modeling reservoir operations. The proposed approach is applied to the Shellmouth reservoir on the Assiniboine River in Canada. Operating rules are developed for high flow/flood years to minimize flooding. Alternative operating rules are explored by changing reservoir storage allocation and reservoir outflows. Impacts on the flood management capacity of the reservoir are investigated by simulating a gated spillway in addition to an existing unregulated spillway. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reservoir levels at the start of the flood season and the outflow from the reservoir.
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In flood-prone international river basins (IRBs), many riparian nations that are located close to a basin's outlet face a major problem in effectively forecasting flooding because they are unable to assimilate in situ rainfall data in real time across geopolitical boundaries. NASA's proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, which is expected to begin in 2010, will comprise high-resolution passive microwave (PM) sensors (at resolution ~3-6 hours, 10 × 10 square kilometers) that may provide new opportunities to improve flood forecasting in these river basins. Research is now needed to realize the potential of GPM. With adequate research in the coming years, it may be possible to identify the specific IRBs that would benefit cost-effectively from a preprogrammed satellite-based forecasting system in anticipation of GPM. Acceleration of such a research initiative is worthwhile because it could reduce the risk of the cancellation of GPM [see Zielinski, 2005].
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South Asia is one of the most flood vulnerable regions in the world. Floods occur often in the region triggered by heavy monsoon precipitation and can cause enormous damages to lives, property, crops and infrastructure. The frequency of extreme floods is on the rise in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Past extreme floods fall within the range of climate variability but frequency, magnitude and extent flooding may increase in South Asia in future due to climate change. Flood risk is sensitive to different levels of warming. For example, in Bangladesh, analysis shows that most of the expected changes in flood depth and extent would occur between 0 and 2°C warming. The three major rivers Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna/Barak will play similar roles in future flooding regimes as they are doing presently. Increases in future flooding can cause extensive damage to rice crops in the monsoon. This may have implications for food security especially of poor women and children. Floods can also impact public health in the flood plains and in the coastal areas. KeywordsClimate change–Flooding–South Asia–Crop damage–Food security
The Netherlands Centre for River Studies (NCR) organised a special session on “River Flood Risk Management in Different Parts of the World”, during the 3rd International Symposium of Flood Defence (ISDF3) on 25 and 26 May 2005 in Nijmegen, the Netherlands. Lectures were given on the past and present policy approach in Bangladesh, the USA, Germany, England and Wales, and the Netherlands. Also, an introduction was given on UNESCO's initiative to promote integrated flood risk management worldwide by capacity building and training in developing countries. This paper summarises the common issues and differences between the approaches in the various parts of the world, and attempts to provide a synthesis of the discussions, held after the respective presentations. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Le Centre Néerlandais pour les Études sur les Cours d'Eau (NCR) a organisé une session spéciale sur la “gestion des risques d'inondation fluviale dans différentes régions du monde”, pendant le symposium international sur la lutte contre les inondations (ISDF3) des 25 et 26 mai 2005 à Nimègue. Des conférences ont été données sur les approches passées et présentes au Bangladesh, aux Etats-Unis, en Allemagne, en Angleterre, au Pays de Galles et aux Pays Bas. En outre, une introduction a été donnée–à l'initiative de l'UNESCO–pour promouvoir la gestion intégrée des risques d'inondation dans le monde par des formations théoriques et pratiques dans les pays en voie de développement. Cet article récapitule les similitudes et les différences entre les approches des diverses régions du monde, ainsi que les tentatives de synthèse des discussions à l'issue des présentations respectives. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bangladesh is very prone to flooding due to its location at the confluence of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) rivers and because of the hydro-meteorological and topographical characteristics of the basins in which it is situated. On average, annual floods inundate 20.5 per cent area of the country and this can reach as high as about 70 per cent during an extreme flood event. Floods cause serious damage to the economy of Bangladesh, a country with a low per capita income. Global warming caused by the enhanced greenhouse effect is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology and water resources of the GBM basins and might ultimately lead to more serious floods in Bangladesh. The use of climate change scenarios from four general circulation models as input into hydrological models demonstrates substantial increases in mean peak discharges in the GBM rivers. These changes may lead to changes in the occurrence of flooding with certain magnitude. Extreme flooding events will create a number of implications for agriculture, flood control and infrastructure in Bangladesh.
Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed in physical and ecological systems. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being observed in both physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes. We outline a set of normative evaluative criteria for judging the success of adaptations at different scales. We argue that elements of effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy are important in judging success in terms of the sustainability of development pathways into an uncertain future. We further argue that each of these elements of decision-making is implicit within presently formulated scenarios of socio-economic futures of both emission trajectories and adaptation, though with different weighting. The process by which adaptations are to be judged at different scales will involve new and challenging institutional processes.