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Conservative Protestants and Religious Polarization in Canada

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Abstract

Reginald Bibby has recently argued that polarization is the best way to describe the religious reality in Canada. There is, in his view, a stable religiously active pole, a shrinking nominally religious middle, and a growing non-religious pole. Others have documented a similar trend in other Western countries. This paper examines evidence for religious polarization in Canada using data from Bibby’s Project Canada Surveys and other sources, with special attention paid to a prominent subset of the religiously committed: conservative Protestants. Evidence of polarization is weak for Canada as a whole. Instead, the data trends are consistent with religious decline. Even the conservative Protestants are not growing, nor showing evidence of increased conservativism.

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... A protracted trend of religious decline implies that the differences between the religious and the nonreligious should shrink overtime. Religious polarization, on the other hand, entails increasing cleavages between the actively religious and the nonreligious (Kaufmann et al. 2012;Reimer 2017;Stonawski et al. 2015;Wilkins-Laflamme 2016. Furthermore, with the growth and vibrancy of secular movements (Baker and Smith 2009), the unaffiliated cannot be treated as a monolithic group who adheres to the same worldview and lifestyle. ...
... Hence, stabilization in size, rather than a continuous growth, is also possible for the secular groups. The combination of these two factors will perhaps intensify the emerging polarization of the Canadian religious landscape (Bibby 2011;Reimer 2017;Wilkins-Laflamme 2014. The concept of religious polarization is one of the newest developments in the scientific study of religion in Western countries (Achterberg et al. 2009;Kaufmann et al. 2012;Ribberink et al. 2013;Wilkins-Laflamme 2014). ...
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Many observers have asserted with little evidence that. Americans' social opinions have become polarized. Using General Social Survey and National Election Survey social attitude items that have been repeated regularly over 20 years, the authors ask (1) Have Americans' opinions become more dispersed (higher variance)? (2) Have distributions become flatter or more bimodal (declining kurtosis)? (3) Have opinions become more ideologically constrained within and across opinion domains? (4) Have paired social groups become more different in their opinions? The authors find little evidence of polarization over the past two decades, with attitudes toward abortion and opinion differences between Republican and Democratic party identifiers the exceptional cases.
Article
According to the General Social Survey, the combined rate of weekly and monthly attendance at religious services in Canada has declined by about 20 points from 1986 to 2008. Approximately half of this decline stems from the increase in the proportion of people reporting no religion, who, for the most part, do not attend religious services. The other portion of this decline is attributable to eroding attendance rates among Catholics, particularly older Catholics, and Protestants in Québec. Attendance rates for Protestants outside of Québec show signs of increase. The reported increase in weekly attendance in Canada by the Project Canada surveys and cited by Bibby as a possible indicator of a religious renaissance is revealed as an artifact in the data due to an oversample of Protestants. I find another weighting problem in the Canadian Survey of Giving, Volunteering and Participating that leads to underestimates of aggregate religious attendance rates.
Article
The view that America is fragmenting is popular among both pundits and academics and may well be endemic to American culture. We review claims that between 1970 and 2005 American society fragmented along lines of cultural politics, social class, immigration, race, or lifestyle. Taking the twentieth century as historical context, we weigh evidence for both main variants of the fragmentation thesis that there is an increasing divide between two Americas, or that America is fragmenting into a variety of little worlds that touch but do not interpenetrate. We find a well-documented, widening gap in social class, whether measured by education or income. We also find that political elites and activists are demonstrably more polarized in 2005 than they were in 1970; this gap's effect on the electorate is debatable, however. Caveats aside, there is little evidence for increasing fragmentation of America along lines of race, ethnicity, or immigration status. American cultural tastes increasingly cluster into distinct lifeways, but there is little evidence about what effects, if any, this development has. The loudest claims of fragmentation, those concerning value issues, are based on the most contested evidence, but the widening gap between Americans by income and education which receives less popular attention is substantial and serious.
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