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Climate change 2014 impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Part A: Global and sectoral aspects: Working group II contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

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Abstract

This latest Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will again form the standard reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences, including students, researchers and policy makers in environmental science, meteorology, climatology, biology, ecology, atmospheric chemistry and environmental policy.
... There is a growing body of knowledge on the impact of climate change on populations around the world (Abid et al., 2018;Field et al., 2014;Herlihy et al., 2016;KiHyun et al., 2014;Tong and Ebi, 2019). Though the literature traverses across many disciplines, there is strong consensus among scholars internationally on the adverse effects of worsening climate change on human health and lifestyle (International Panel on Climate Change, 1992;WMO, 2020). ...
... The health impacts of climate change are well documented (Field et al., 2014;Rataj et al., 2016;Tong and Ebi, 2019) and there has also been growing discussion on the health impacts of climate-related migration in vulnerable countries (Schwerdtle et al., 2017). This scoping review contributes to the pre-existing literature by focusing on qualitative data at the intersection of climate change, migration, and health. ...
... By 2050, most economists predict that increasing human population and economic prosperity will lead to a 70-100% increase in demand for agricultural products [20]. In preparing fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Stocker et al. [21] stated that anthropogenic activities would likely lead to a 4 • C increase in the temperature of the planet by the end of this century, leading to a severe impact on the human population, especially in vulnerable populations and places [22]. Various factors, including climate change, impact the global hydrological cycle, and these changes have a major effect on agricultural production and food security. ...
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Water management is rapidly becoming one of the most pressing issues facing all countries in semi-arid and arid parts of the world. Global water consumption is predicted to increase by 50% in 2030, resulting in an acute water shortage. Presently, the agricultural sector consumes more than 70% of freshwater in most regions of the world, putting more pressure on water scarcity. Hydrogels are superabsorbent polymers that can hold plant nutrients and water when the soil around plant roots starts to dry out. Research evidence has revealed that water stored by hydrogel slowly returns to the soil, thereby increasing the volumetric water content of the soil. Hydrogel increases water use efficiency and irrigation intervals, decreases irrigation costs, and provides plants with the required nutrients and moisture. Numerous properties of hydrogels, including moderate water retention and high swelling, make them ideal as a safe delivery mechanism in agriculture for soil conditioners and agents for the controlled release of fertilizers. Numerous research publications on hydrogel polymer synthesis and its characteristics have been published. However, the current review emphasizes the critical role of superabsorbent hydrogels in an integrated approach for the balanced protection of seeds, plants, and soil to conserve the ecosystem.
... Wildfires are expected to increase in frequency, extent and severity in the future due to climate change as heat waves and droughts increase in likelihood (Westerling et al. 2011;Wehner et al. 2017;Field et al. 2014;Aldersley et al. 2011). A changed climate will, in the long term, also alter ecosystems and hydrology, the consequences of which are not yet fully understood. ...
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This study seeks to use machine learning to investigate the role of meteorological and climate variables on wildfire occurrence in the Arctic and the global tropical forests biomes. Using monthly fire counts observed by the MODIS satellites in combination with temperature and precipitation data, indices of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic anomalies (teleconnections), and global temperature anomalies (GT), a combined wavelet-machine learning approach is developed to identify drivers of variability in global wildfire counts on a monthly scale. Precipitation and temperature are found to be the most important predictors of wildfire count in all regions. In addition, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and GT are identified as the two major drivers of wildfire occurrence. Results indicate that the record-breaking 2019 wildfires in the Asian Arctic can be attributed to unusually warm and dry weather, while the recent increase in wildfires in Amazonia rather can be attributed to regional human activities.
... Climate change is real, and it impacts many sectors, including agricultural production, and continues to pose a significant challenge to farming activities at prodigious risk, with most acute stressors to food security, biodiversity, and livelihoods. Farmers in the developing nations face various social, environmental, climatic, and market-associated exposures in their farming living performances (Field et al., 2014;Mertz et al., 2009), particularly those in developing nations such as Pakistan, where climate variations negatively impact the crop production (Abbas & Mayo, 2021), dealing with climate change and variability concerns that affect human welfare and well-being in the long run and short run across countries (Chandio et al., 2021; considering smallholder farmers to require to adopt environmental strategical practices to mitigate this challenge. Although the less struggle to diffuse and provide assets to the farming households, they often face limited developmental possibilities and acknowledgment to smallholders to sustain productions . ...
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This article explores the impact of farmers' livelihood assets and adaptation approaches on livelihoods. We proposed a new paradigm for the sustainable livelihoods of smallholders based on the grounded theory, to exploit seven household assets and used mixed methodological approaches of growers' livelihood assets and climatic adaptation strategies based on farmers' livelihood concerns in Sindh province of Pakistan and to better understand smallholder farmers' sustainable livelihoods and applied a partial least square path modeling. Considering central critical paths, psychological assets (PsyA) entail mediational factors into the sustainable livelihoods index. The findings show that the essential support of the livelihood of farmers' social, cultural, economic, and human assets positively impacts sustainable livelihoods, though physical and natural assets depict a nonsignificant impact on SLI. However, human and financial assets show comparatively substantial effects on smallholders' adaptation strategies; consequently, physical, social, and natural assets reveal significant impacts on farmers’ livelihoods. The study further indicates that PsyA can, directly and indirectly, boost the human and physical assets and exploit the farmers’ sustainable livelihoods index successfully. Lastly, this research proposed policy suggestions for poverty reduction and sustainable livelihoods of small-scale growers.
... Agricultural productivity can be affected directly and indirectly through impacts on crop diseases (Newbery et al. 2016). A reduction of 1% to 5% in global agricultural production has been estimated per decade over the last 30 years, which is related to climate variations (Field et al. 2014). According to Pham et al. (2019), future coffee priorities should focus on growing regions that are not affected by climate change. ...
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ABSTRACT: Brown eye spot (Cercospora coffeicola) is one of the main fungal diseases of coffee, leading to a significant drop in crop productivity and beverage quality in Brazil. The identification of potential risk areas for the development of the disease provides promising information for the management of the pathogen. This study aimed to elaborate an agroclimatic zoning for the incidence of brown eye spot on coffee under climate change scenarios, as suggested by IPCC (IPCC-AR5), in the main coffee-growing regions. Climate data of air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity were collected from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources – NASA/POWER platform from 1989 to 2020 for 46 municipalities in the states of Paraná, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Goiás, and Bahia. The ideal climate for brown eye spot occurrence consists of an air temperature (Tmean) between 18 °C and 30 °C, relative humidity (RHmean) > 90%, and leaf wetness duration (LWD) > 9 hours. The number of hours of leaf wetness was determined by the sum of hours with relative humidity > 90%. Relative humidity was estimated for each hour of the day using air temperature and estimated data of mean dew point temperature, maximum relative humidity, minimum relative humidity. Climate change scenarios were designed based on sets of climate simulations for the 21st century. Scenario S1 is the current scenario without changes, while scenarios S2 and S3 show Tmean + 1.5 °C and 3.0 °C, respectively, with RHmean without changes. Scenarios S4 and S5 present RHmean varying from −30% to +30%, respectively, with Tmean unchanged. In the current scenario (S1), Minas Gerais presented a predominance of 100% for low climate risk to brown eye spot in September. Paraná presented a medium risk in 76.15% of the state in April. Scenarios S2 and S3 showed significant changes, increasing the average fitness class in the study region, mainly in the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Paraná. Scenario S4 showed 100% predominance of the low-risk class. In contrast, S5 showed the occurrence of the high-risk class for the study region with a +30% increase in relative humidity. Minas Gerais presented a predominance of the high-risk class for the development of C. coffeicola in 76%, 100%, 97.83%, 89.30%, 93.46%, 80.64%, and 57.77% from November to May, respectively. The presence of high relative humidity represents the main factor for the expansion of the high-risk class for the development of C. coffeicola.
... Steady increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases notably CO 2 in the atmosphere, particularly during the time frame of post-industrial revolution period, are considered to be the major drivers of global warming and climate change (Datta et al., 2011;Field et al., 2014). Assessment of various sources and sinks of atmospheric CO 2 and its dynamics is essential to mitigate the menace of climate change. ...
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Present study is a maiden attempt to assess net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO2) fux from jute crop (Corchorus olitorius L.) in the Indo-Gangetic plain by using open-path eddy covariance (EC) technique. Diurnal variations of NEE were strongly infuenced by growth stages of jute crop. Daytime peak NEE varied from−5 µmol m−2 s −1 (in germination stage) to−23 µmol m−2 s−1 (in fbre development stage). The ecosystem was net CO2 source during nighttime with an average NEE value of 5–8 μmol m−2 s−1. Combining both daytime and nighttime CO2 fuxes, jute ecosystem was found to be a net CO2 sink on a daily basis except the initial 9 days from date of sowing. Seasonal and growth stage-wise NEEs were computed, and the seasonal total NEE over the jute season was found to be−268.5 gC m−2 (i.e. 10.3 t CO2 ha-1). In diferent jute growth stages, diurnal variations of NEE were strongly correlated (R2>0.9) with photosynthetic photon fux density (PPFD). Ecosystem level photosynthetic efciency parameters were estimated at each growth stage of jute crop using the Michaelis–Menten equation. The maximum values of photosynthetic capacity (Pmax, 63.3±1.15 µmol CO2 m−2 s−1) and apparent quantum yield (α, 0.072±0.0045 µmol CO2 µmol photon−1) were observed during the active vegetative stage, and the fbre development stage, respectively. Results of the present study would signifcantly contribute to understanding of the carbon fux from the Indian agroecosystems, which otherwise are very sparse.
... In the context of climate change characterized with global warming, the global surface temperature has significantly increased in the past century [2]. Numerous studies have illustrated significant associations of non-optimal temperatures with mortality and morbidity of various causes [3][4][5]. The associations of temperatures with mortality and morbidity are often U-, V-or J-shaped, with increases in the risks of mortality and morbidity at high or low temperatures. ...
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Background Several studies have investigated the associations between temperature variability (TV) and death counts. However, evidence of TV-attributable years of life lost (YLL) is scarce. Objectives To investigate the associations between TV and YLL rates (/100,000 population), and quantify average life loss per death (LLD) caused by TV in China. Methods We calculated daily YLL rates (/100,000 population) of non-accidental causes and cardiorespiratory diseases by using death data from 364 counties of China during 2006–2017, and collected meteorological data during the same period. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and multivariate meta-analysis were used to estimate the effects of TV at national or regional levels. Then, we calculated the LLD to quantify the mortality burden of TV. Results U-shaped curves were observed in the associations of YLL rates with TV in China. The minimum YLL TV (MYTV) was 2.5 °C nationwide. An average of 0.89 LLD was attributable to TV in total, most of which was from high TV (0.86, 95% CI: 0.56, 1.16). However, TV caused more LLD in the young (<65 years old) (1.87, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.71) than 65–74 years old (0.85, 95% CI: 0.40–1.31) and ≥75 years old (0.40, 95% CI: 0.21–0.59), cerebrovascular disease (0.74, 95% CI: 0.36, 1.11) than respiratory disease (0.54, 95% CI: 0.21, 0.87), South (1.23, 95% CI: 0.77, 1.68) than North (0.41, 95% CI: −0.7, 1.52) and Central China (0.40, 95% CI: −0.02, 0.81). TV-attributed LLD was modified by annual mean temperature, annual mean relative humidity, altitude, latitude, longitude, and education attainment. Significance Our findings indicate that high and low TVs are both associated with increases in premature death, however the majority of LLD was attributable to high TV. TV-related LLD was modified by county level characteristics. TV should be considered in planning adaptation to climate change or variability. Impact We estimated the associations of TV with YLL rates, and quantified the life loss per death (LLD) caused by TV. An average of 0.89 years of LLD were attributable to TV, most of which were from high TVs. TV caused more LLD in the young, cerebrovascular disease, and southern China. The mortality burdens were modified by county level characteristics.
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Extreme temperatures have reached unprecedented levels in many regions of the globe due to climate change, and a further increase is expected. Besides other consequences, high temperatures increase the mortality risk and severely affect the labour productivity of workers. We perform a high-resolution spatial analysis to assess the impacts of heat on mortality and labour productivity in Switzerland and project their development under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, considering that no socio-economic changes take place. The model is based on the risk framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which combines the three risk components: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We model the two impact categories in the same spatially explicit framework, and we integrate uncertainties into the analysis by a Monte Carlo simulation. We model first that about 658 deaths are associated with heat exposure currently each year in Switzerland. Second, the economic costs caused by losses in labour productivity amount to around CHF 665 million (approx. USD 700 million) per year. Should we remain on an RCP8.5 emissions pathway, these values may double (for mortality) or even triple (for labour productivity) by the end of the century. Under an RCP2.6 scenario impacts are expected to slightly increase and peak around mid-century, when climate is assumed to stop warming. Even though uncertainties in the model are large, the underlying trend in impacts is unequivocal. The results of the study are valuable information for political discussions and allow for a better understanding of the cost of inaction.
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Research at the biophysical level constitutes the main approach to study the path through which climate influences infectious diseases, but the influence of socioeconomic factors on climate change and the spread of infectious diseases also cannot be ignored. In the current context, with its emphasis on carbon emission reduction, countries have begun to adopt "total control and trading" methods to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper is based on the monthly relevant data of various provinces and cities from 2015 to 2019, adds the moderating variable of "carbon emission trading volume" based on current research results, establishes a static model of unbalanced panel fixed effects and a dynamic panel model, and deeply analyzes the impact of climate change on infectious disease popularity and the moderating effect of the carbon trading market. The study found that climate warming, frequent precipitation and shortened sunshine duration will lead to an increase in the number of infectious disease cases and that the "carbon emissions trading volume" variable plays a negative role in the positive correlation between climate change (temperature/precipitation) and the number of infectious disease cases. There are seasonal differences, and the moderating effect in summer/autumn is more obvious than that in winter/spring.
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Climate change disproportionately affects Indigenous Peoples because of strong connections between environmental, cultural, and spiritual well-being. While much of the global discourse surrounding climate change is founded in Western science, the holistic, place-based knowledge of Indigenous Peoples offers a complementary way of understanding and mitigating climate change impacts. The goal of this research was to elevate Anishinaabe concerns, observations, and perspectives about climate change impacts and future research needs. We organized a workshop called “Connecting Guardians in a Changing World” where participants shared concerns about animal and plant life cycles, water cycles and water quality, and impacts to ways of life, including reduced capacity to perform cultural practices and erosion of their knowledge. Participants highlighted the challenge of prioritizing a single impact of climate change, emphasizing that impacts to the environment and ways of life are interconnected. Participants also expressed the need for research and policy that move beyond interdisciplinarity to include intercultural philosophy and research that better reflects Indigenous worldviews and incorporates Indigenous methodologies. Moving forward, meaningful partnerships and opportunities for knowledge sharing should be prioritized in climate change discourse to ensure solutions are generated together, with all of the tools and knowledge available.
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1. Moore, D., Heilweck, M. & Petros, P. (2022). Diagnosing the Problem. In: Aquaculture: Ocean Blue Carbon Meets UN-SDGS, (eds D. Moore, M. Heilweck & P. Petros), Chapter 1, pp. 1-34. A volume in the Sustainable Development Goals Series. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-94846-7_1. 1.1 In this Chapter… We give a plain language guide to the Earth’s carbon cycle by briefly summarising the observations and origins of increased levels of greenhouse gases, mainly CO2 but including CH4 and N2O, in our present-day atmosphere. They are increased in the sense that they have not occurred naturally in the Earth’s atmosphere at any time during the past 420,000 years. The only tenable explanation for our atmosphere’s present state is that it is the consequence of mankind’s excessive use of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution onwards. Something that has been described as a planetary-scale experiment in which humans return to the atmosphere and oceans the concentrated organic carbon that had previously been stored in sedimentary rocks for many hundreds of millions of years. We deal with the arguments that deny the truth of anthropogenic CO2-driven climate change, then illustrate the Earth’s global carbon cycle. Explaining how it was almost exactly in equilibrium for several thousand years while humans were evolving, before industrial humans intervened. We describe how the excess greenhouse gas emissions are projected to change the global climate over this century and beyond, and discuss ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference’ (DAI), ‘reasons for concern’ (RFCs) and climate tipping points. Finally, we give a short account of the various improved management, engineering and natural climate solutions advocated to increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, agricultural lands and industry, and indicate how they are discussed in our later chapters, and we will propose an alternative natural carbon sink that is currently greatly undervalued and underdiscussed. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 D. Moore et al., Aquaculture: Ocean Blue Carbon Meets UN-SDGS, Sustainable Development Goals Series. FULL TEXT available from this URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-94846-7_1
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Some countries in Southern Africa where hit by either a storm or cyclone or both in 2019 alone manifesting a changing climate. Infrastructure and cropping land was destroyed, both animal and human lives were lost due to the flooding events. Drought is a common phenomenon in this region, often occurring once in three years. This has affected food, feed and nutritional security of both humans and livestock. Saline soils unsuitable for agriculture, other animal and plant life are expanding fast due to insufficient precipitation. Soil degradation is on the rise, leaving soils with poor water holding capacity to support sustainable agriculture. Climate change is changing the environment and new pests and diseases for both crops and livestock are emerging. World governments, industries and general populace should find better ways of reducing air pollution by greenhouse gases which have a net effect of damaging the ozone layer and increasing atmospheric temperatures. At the same time, plant and animal breeding should aim at improving crop cultivars and animal breeds that resist to the constraints such as drought and heat stress brought by climate change. The human population is increasing at an alarming rate and need both food and nutritional security.
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Measuring the complexity of precipitation can help understand the intrinsic nature of precipitation changes. Entropy as a tool of measuring complexity, has been widely applied to the precipitation complexity. However, previous study mostly used a single entropy model, resulting in differences in precipitation complexity measurement for the same region. In this study, the permutation entropy (PE), sample entropy (SE), wavelet entropy (WE) and fuzzy entropy (FE) were used to measure the precipitation complexity respectively. Then, this study presents an integrated entropy model on the set pair analysis (SPA) and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) to combine different entropy models for precipitation complexity measurement. Finally, the integrated entropy model was applied for analyzing the spatial differences among complexity for precipitation and its influencing factors in Fujian. Results indicated that: (1) the integrated entropy model is superior to single entropy model, and it can provide more accurate measurement of precipitation complexity, (2) the spatial pattern of integrated entropy shows a declining trend from the northwest (maximum entropy of Ningde is 0.953) toward southeast (minimum entropy of Zhangzhou is 0.861), corresponding to the northwest and middle area with less predictable for precipitation and the more predictable in southeast coast. Additionally, the terrain and distance from sea have become the factors influence the precipitation complexity in Fujian. The research results may provide scientific reference for measurement of regional precipitation complexity and its optimal.
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To meet the challenges of high-resolution molecular spectroscopy, increasingly sophisticated spectroscopic techniques were developed. For a long time FTIR and laser-based spectroscopies were used for these studies. The recent development of dual-comb spectroscopy at high-resolution makes this technique a powerful tool for gas phase studies. We report on the use and characterization of the IRis-F1, a tabletop mid-infrared dual-comb spectrometer, in the newly developed step-sweep mode. The resolution of the wavenumber axis is increased by step-wise tuning (interleaving) and accurate measurement of the laser center wavelength and repetition frequency. Doppler limited measurements of N2O and CH4 reveal a wavenumber accuracy of 10⁻⁴ cm⁻¹ on the covered range of > 50 cm⁻¹. Measured half-widths of absorption lines show no systematic broadening, indicating a negligible instrument response function. Finally, measurements of nitrogen pressure broadening coefficients in the ν4 band of methane show that quantum cascade laser dual-comb spectroscopy in step-sweep mode is well adapted for measurements of precision spectroscopic data, in particular line shape parameters.
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Most terrestrial plants experience multiple edaphic (i.e. soil-related) stresses concurrently. Interactions among edaphic stresses may be characterized by dominance of one stress over others, neutral interactions whose effects are additive, mitigating interactions in which the effects of multiple stresses are less than additive, potentiating interactions in which the effects of multiple stresses are greater than additive, and dynamic equilibria in which plant responses seek to minimize all stresses concurrently. Existing theoretical paradigms, notably the Law of the Minimum and the Multiple Limitation Hypothesis, do not adequately account for interactions of edaphic stresses. Reduced growth resulting from edaphic stress is itself an important modulator of stress interactions by reducing resource demand as well as reducing soil resource capture. Root adaptations to one edaphic stress may either mitigate or potentiate other edaphic stresses, as evidenced by the examples of root architectural tradeoffs for water and P capture, in contrast to root architectural synergies for water and nitrate capture. In high-input agroecosystems, edaphic stress complexes of global importance include mechanical impedance/poor soil structure/drought stress, and salinity/drought stress. In low-input agroecosystems, globally important edaphic stress complexes include drought and low soil P availability, as well as the acid soil complex, characterized by toxicity of Al and possibly Mn, combined with low availability of P, K, Ca, and Mg. Global climate change is likely to exacerbate edaphic stress, by increasing the severity and frequency of drought and flooding, accelerating soil degradation, and altering plant phenology. Many of the edaphic stresses exacerbated by global climate change have potentiating interactions with each other, which is likely to make them more harmful than anticipated from their direct effects. Edaphic stresses linked to climate change are likely to have severe impacts in developing nations, which generally have more problematic soils and more limited management options than developed nations. The potential benefits of CO2 fertilization for plants in future climates may be mitigated by edaphic stress. Edaphic stress interactions are a challenge for crop breeding programs, because resistance to edaphic stress is generally quantitative and may display fitness tradeoffs with other edaphic stresses. Germplasm evaluation in farmer’s conditions, ideotype breeding, and deployment of root phenotypes with utility for multiple edaphic stresses, such as long, dense root hairs, and root cortical aerenchyma, would be helpful in this context. Interactions among edaphic stresses are key drivers of plant growth in the majority of global soils. Improved understanding of edaphic stress interactions is needed to develop the more resilient, stress tolerant crops and cropping systems that are urgently needed in global agriculture.
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Climate change has become a potential threat to human health in the past half century. The risk associated with waterborne diseases due to changes in climatic patterns is increasing all over the world. This article reviews the available literature on the increase and potential impact of waterborne diseases on human health, particularly those resulting from changes in climate patterns in Pakistan. The discussion focuses on the increased exposure to pathogens associated mainly with temperature rise and floods resulting from intense rainfall events. Developing countries, including Pakistan, are more vulnerable to threats of climatic changes, which add to waterborne disease risks due to poor sanitation and sewerage systems, inappropriate water management, lack of health-care facilities, and social and environmental factors. Among bacterial pathogens, E. coli, Salmonella, Shigella, Cryptosporidium, and Campylobacter are the main causative agents of waterborne diseases such as diarrhea, hepatitis, cholera, typhoid, malaria, salmonellosis, dysentery, schistosomiasis, and giardiasis, all of which are becoming more frequent. In addition to disease outbreaks, climate changes are expected to increase the challenges of water availability and exposure to unsafe water. Future projections of climate based on current rates of change predict increased variations in rainfall patterns and melting glaciers, which will lead to an exponential increase in pathogen concentration in water bodies. As disease outbreaks become more frequent, the impact on health is clear. This article proposes actions to reduce future health threats from outbreaks of waterborne diseases through the development of mitigation and adaptation measures put into national water policy, including infrastructure development that assures potable water quality control, improved medical intervention, and the development of process-based models for risk management.
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Background: Although studies have provided the estimates of floods-diarrhoea associations, little is known about the lag effect, effect modification, and attributable risk. Based on Sichuan, China, an uneven socio-economic development province with plateau, basin, and mountain terrains spanning different climatic zones, we aimed to systematically examine the impacts of floods on diarrheal morbidity. Methods: We retrieved information on daily diarrheal cases, floods, meteorological variables, and annual socio-economic characteristics for 21 cities in Sichuan from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2019. We fitted time-series Poisson models to estimate the city-specific floods-diarrhoea relation over the lags of 0-14 days, and then pooled them using meta-analysis for cumulative and lag effects. We further employed meta-regression to explore potential effect modifiers and identify effect modification. We calculated the attributable diarrheal cases and fraction of attributable morbidity within the framework of the distributed lag model. Results: Floods had a significant cumulative association with diarrhoea at the provincial level, but varied by regions and cities. The effects of the floods appeared on the second day after the floods and lasted for 5 days. Floods-diarrhoea relations were modified by three effect modifiers, with stronger flood effects on diarrhoea found in areas with higher air pressure, lower diurnal temperature range, or warmer temperature. Floods were responsible for advancing a fraction of diarrhoea, corresponding to 0.25% within the study period and 0.48% within the flood season. Conclusions: The impacts imposed by floods were mainly distributed within the first week. The floods-diarrhoea relations varied by geographic and climatic conditions. The diarrheal burden attributable to floods is currently low in Sichuan, but this figure could increase with the exposure more intensive and the effect modifiers more detrimental in the future. Our findings are expected to provide evidence for the formulation of temporal- and spatial-specific strategies to reduce potential risks of flood-related diarrhoea.
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To identify adaptation priorities, countries aim to systematically assess their climate change risks, consistent with international agreements. National-scale risk assessment usually follows an expert-led procedure that aims to establish traction with existing policy processes. This may underrepresent important local or regional contexts, including where there are divergent socio-cultural factors or value systems that influence risk perception. These differences in interpretation are explored in detail for Guatemala, located in a climate change risk “hotspot” region, based upon semi-structured interviews with a wide range of stakeholders. Perceptions of factors affecting climate change risk are assessed between different types of stakeholders. Adaptive capacity and risk governance are considered, including the role of international aid to reduce climate change risk in developing countries. Non-profit, inter-municipal organisations of two or more municipalities, named mancomunidades , are potentially a useful structure to build adaptive capacity through reflexive risk assessment.
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