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Strategische Frühaufklärung und Risikomanagement
Abstract
Eine strategische Risikoperspektive würde, wenn die unternehmerische Institution nur auf sich selbst bezogen wäre, bestenfalls moderate Ergebnisse liefern. Daher ist es empfehlenswert, dass sich die in der Organisation beauftragten Personen intensiv mit der Geschäftstätigkeit, dem Umfeld und den relevanten strategischen prozessualen Aspekten auseinandersetzen, um ein umfassendes Verständnis bezüglich des Unternehmens entwickeln zu können. Darauf aufbauend beginnt die eigentliche Tätigkeit der Antizipation, Identifikation, Bewertung/Klassifikation und Reaktion auf die (noch) unscharfen und zunehmend konkreter werdenden Ereignisse mit negativer Auswirkung auf die eigentliche Geschäftstätigkeit. Die Design-Gestaltung auf strategischer Ebene ermöglicht umso mehr einen Erfolg auf den nachgelagerten Stufen, je intensiver das Unternehmen, dessen Kontext, interne und externe Interaktionen wie auch die potenziellen Einwirkungen auf und Abweichungen von der Zielerreichung akzeptiert, verstanden, analysiert und behandelt werden.
Dieses Kapitel versetzt den Leser in die Lage, die Relevanz der Makroumwelt für das B2B-Marketing einzuschätzen, er lernt die zur Verfügung stehenden Methoden zur Analyse der Makroumwelt kennen und erfährt, wie diese zielorientiert angewendet werden. Außerdem werden zentrale Veränderungstrends der Makroumwelt und deren Einfluss auf B2B-Marketing und Vertrieb thematisiert.
Die deutschen Bierbrauer halten zwar große Stücke auf ihr traditionsreiches Handwerk. Vielen bereitet die Vermarktung ihrer weltweit angesehenen Produkte dennoch keine Freude. Der Bierabsatz in Deutschland sinkt seit nunmehr drei Jahrzehnten kontinuierlich, der jährliche Pro-Kopf-Konsum fiel von ehedem knapp 150 Liter auf heute nur noch 102 Liter (Deutscher Brauer-Bund 2019). Die Konsequenzen des schrumpfenden Marktes zeigen sich sehr deutlich auf den Preisschildern im Supermarkt. Mit preisaggressiven, häufigen Promotion-Angeboten versuchen auch Premium-Marken wie König Pilsener oder Warsteiner, ihre kapitalintensiven und fixkostenlastigen Abfüllanlagen auszulasten. Sie heizen damit eine Preissenkungsspirale an, unter der letztlich alle Marken leiden. Die höherpreisigen Markenbiere spüren zugleich den Druck der Billigbrauer. Nicht umsonst hat schon vor Jahren die Discountmarke Oettinger – im Angebot gibt es die Kiste schon unter fünf Euro – der Krombacher Brauerei den Rang als ausstoßstärkste deutsche Brauerei abgelaufen.
Getrieben durch den gestiegenen Innovationsdruck und den erhöhten Bedarf nach strategischer Orientierung, ist in den letzten Jahren das Interesse der Unternehmen an den Methoden und Erkenntnissen der Trend- und Zukunftsforschung stark gewachsen: Etliche Kongresse, Praxiszirkel und Netzwerke wurden zum Thema ins Leben gerufen, eine Vielzahl an neuen Foresight-Agenturen und Think-Tanks wurde gegründet und sogar klassische, gestandene Strategieberatungen bieten heute umfangreiche Dienstleistungen im Bereich „Strategic Foresight“ an. Wer möchte, kann sich heute täglich mit neuen Trendlettern, Zukunftsstudien, Impulsartikeln, „Insights“, „Alerts“ oder „schwachen Signalen“ eindecken.
An integrative framework is proposed to generate a more complete picture of strategic foresight as an organizing capability in high-velocity environments.
Angesichts zunehmender Komplexität und Unsicherheit der gesellschaftlichen und natürli-chen Rahmenbedingungen, z. B. Globalisierung, Klimawandel, Dynamiken der Energie- und Rohstoffmärkte, sicherheitspolitische Risiken und Konflikte sowie technologische Umbrüche, gilt es mehr denn je, heutige Entscheidungen vorausschauend zu reflektieren und zukunftsfä-hig auszurichten. Die Arbeit mit Szenarios stellt dabei ein zentrales Werkzeug dar.
Die vorliegende Studie gibt einen strukturierten Überblick über die vielfältigen Varianten der Szenario-Methodik einschließlich wichtiger Rand- und Übergangsbereiche zu weiteren Me-thoden der Zukunftsforschung. Dabei werden anhand dreier idealtypischer Gruppen von Sze-nariotechniken (Szenarios auf der Basis von Trendextrapolationen, systematisch-formalisierte Szenariotechniken und kreativ-narrative Szenariotechniken) Voraussetzungen und Herkunft, Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede, Stärken und Schwächen erläutert. In Exkursen wird ex-emplarisch auf hybride Methodenkombinationen und auf Techniken des Szenario-Transfers eingegangen. Auch ein praktischer Kurzleitfaden in Form einer „Checkliste“ ist enthalten, welche es ermöglicht, anhand konkreter Entscheidungsfragen die methodische Ausgestaltung von Vorausschauprojekten zu konkretisieren, d.h. insbesondere zu klären, ob und wie im Rahmen eines solchen Vorhabens Szenario-Arbeit zielführend eingesetzt werden kann.
Accounting information system composes the most important part in management information systems because accounting is stated as the language of a management. Thereby, accounting information obtained from accounting information system is a kind of basic knowledge for the efficient management system. In particular, data gained from the accounting system with computer base ensures extremely important contributions for the management systems to be successful. In this study, the development of accounting information system and its significance for the managements are examined generally.
Most people agree that preparing for the future is necessary to excel, but doing it effectively is difficult. All risk analyses offer some foresight, but tools based on classic probabilistic calculus open for deception through apparent accuracy in some situations because ambiguity and fuzziness is largely ignored. We believe this is particularly a problem in strategic settings as it may lead to less informed decision making. We also believe that strategic risk analysis can hardly be performed well without matching risk management actions to the organization’s characteristics. We therefore present a new approach towards strategic risk analysis that remedies the two aforementioned problems. The purpose is to analyze strategic risks in a meaningful and practical way, yet capable of handling the broader scope of strategic risk. The approach is illustrated by a case.
What is to be done when nothing is known yet? How is one to proceed? The very beginning of all scientific activity is rarely treated in undergraduate or graduate studies. The method for systematic observation has been developed exactely for this purpose, the. It consists in the application of five easily memorized formulas. They help the investigator and the researcher be more proficient observers and to make sure that no details have been left out when it comes to abduct hypotheses. The five formulas determine which steps are to be taken at first. They are listed as follows:
I. Compare the object of observation to a model and/or to similar cases.
II. Separate formal aspects from the contents and analyze each of them.
III. Structure the object into functional elements, and explore each of them separately.
IV. Explore inconsistencies, contradictions, mistakes, or astonishing coincidences within the context of the established structure.
V. Look for the absence of signs (with models and after structuring the object).
Testing the Plausibility of Hypotheses Then, after going through the process of systematically registering every import detail, we are able to draw first hypotheses (the abduction process according to Peirce). These hypotheses should consequently be checked for plausibility in listing systematically each sign of evidence for and each against them, in order to get a clear picture of the case
Project Management: Process, Technology and Practice provides readers with theoretical concepts, applications, the newest technology concepts, a variety of tools and processes, and practical insights to help them understand how to successfully manage projects in a wide variety of industries including software development, information technology, construction, government, pharmaceutical, manufacturing, and R&D. This first edition is packed with learning aids, real-time projects, and tools to provide plenty of hands-on practice and to prepare readers for both the PMP and CAPM certification exams.
Introduction to Modeling and Optimization Classical Unconstrained Optimization Problems Classical Equality Constraint Problem Newton-Raphson Method Linear Programming Dynamic Programming Generalized Nonlinear Programming Multiobjective Decision Trees Derivation of the Expected Value of a Log-normal Distribution Derivation of the Conditional Expected Value of a Log-normal Distribution Triangular Distribution: Unconditional and Conditional Expected Values Standard Normal Distribution Probability Table
In komplexen, vernetzten und dynamischen Handlungssituationen macht unser Gehirn Fehler: Wir beschäftigen uns mit dem ärgerlichen Knoten und sehen nicht das Netz. Wir berücksichtigen nicht, dass man in einem System nicht eine Größe allein modifizieren kann, ohne damit gleichzeitig alle anderen zu beeinflussen. Können wir daran etwas ändern?
At a time when corporate scandals and major financial failures dominate newspaper headlines, the importance of good risk management practices has never been more obvious. The absence or mismanagement of such practices can have devastating effects on exposed organizations and the wider economy (Barings Bank, Enron, Lehmann Brothers, Northern Rock, to name but a few). Today's organizations and corporate leaders must learn the lessons of such failures by developing practices to deal effectively with risk. This book is an important step towards this end. Written from a European perspective, it brings together ideas, concepts and practices developed in various risk markets and academic fields to provide a much-needed overview of different approaches to risk management. It critiques prevailing enterprise risk management frameworks (ERMs) and proposes a suitable alternative. Combining academic rigour and practical experience, this is an important resource for graduate students and professionals concerned with strategic risk management.
Modern strategic planning systems increasingly confront two difficulties: strategic information about impending threats and opportunities is perceived too late to permit timely and effective response; and the corporate planning cycle is too long to permit timely response to fast-developing events. In response to the first difficulty, the author develops a technique for early identification of early strategic signals and a method for matching the firm's response to the quality of information. In response to the second problem, a real time planning system, called strategic issue management, is developed.
Purpose
– Many firms did not have mechanisms in place prior to 2007 to identify and track the weak signals of an impending financial crisis, and as a result they were not prepared for the stresses and opportunities the crisis generated. The author aims to offer a guide to identifying these weak signals and a system for mitigating the risk of being hurt by another such crisis.
Design/methodology/approach
– This is a guide to strategic risk management (SRM), which defines a process of identifying, assessing and economically managing potentially enterprise-threatening losses. It is a way to mitigate developing ambiguous threats before they manifest themselves and then spiral out of control.
Findings
– Corporate leaders can follow the example of savvy investors who use risk management insights to mitigate the effects of a potential crisis and to profit from one if it develops.
Practical implications
– Market pressures can cause firms to loosen product or investment standards incrementally, which over time can radically change a business model’s risk profile without anyone acting to mitigate it.
Originality/value
– This guide to Strategic Risk Management provides insight into how corporate leaders can identify the “weak signals” of a financial crisis well before the actual crisis develops and also describes how they can mitigate financial risk in their portfolios and make opportunistic investments and adopt hedging strategies at very favorable price levels.
Purpose
– Discusses the importance of a balanced approach to risk management.
Design/methodology/approach
– Draws on the author's consulting experience to offer an insightful perspective.
Findings
– Opines that a combination of formalized tools and techniques, alongside more qualitative ‘right-brain’ thinking is the most effective means of developing a risk management strategy.
Originality/value
– Draws on the author's consulting experience to offer an insightful perspective.
In parallel with the increasing complexity and uncertainty of social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value systems (STEEPV), there is a need for a systemic approach in Foresight. Recognizing this need, the paper begins with the introduction of the Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) is introduced briefly as a conceptual framework to understand and appreciate the complexity of systems and interdependencies and interrelationships between their elements. Conducting Foresight systemically involves a set of ‘systemic’ thought experiments, which is about how systems (e.g. human and social systems, industrial/sectoral systems, and innovation systems) are understood, modelled and intervened for a successful change programme. A methodological approach is proposed with the use of network analysis to show an application of systemic thinking in Foresight through the visualisation of interrelationships and interdependencies between trends, issues and actors, and their interpretation to explain the evolution of systems. Network analysis is a powerful approach as it is able to analyse both the whole system of relations and parts of the system at the same time and hence it reveals the otherwise hidden structural properties of the systems. Our earlier work has attempted to incorporate network analysis in Foresight, which helped to reveal structural linkages of trends and identify emerging important trends in the future. Following from this work, in this paper we combine systemic Foresight, network analysis and scenario methods to propose an ‘Evolutionary Scenario Approach,’ which explains the ways in which the future may unfold based on the mapping of the gradual change and the dynamics of aspects or variables that characterise a series of circumstances in a period of time. Thus, not only are evolutionary scenarios capable of giving a snapshot of a particular future, but also explaining the emerging transformation pathways of events and situations from the present into the future as systemic narratives.
This paper examines the concept of weak signals: its basic idea presented by Igor Ansoff and its later developments. We argue that recent futures studies have essentially deepened the analysis of this concept, which originally lacked an accurate definition. Placing weak signals in the general context of futures research has provided the concept with a theoretical point of attachment and linked it with other futures concepts – such as strong signals and trends. Recent studies have also increased the applicability of the concept of weak signals, specifying ways in which signals can be identified, collected and interpreted. Consequently, a number of empirical examples of the analysis of weak signals are nowadays available. In the present paper, we summarize and evaluate both theoretical contributions and managerial implications of these new approaches. While emphasizing the advancements of research, we also want to point out that Ansoff not only was a pioneer in the field, but developed many ideas that are still applicable today. We conclude our paper by suggesting directions for the further development of weak signals research.
Wettbewerbsvorteile entscheiden über Erfolg oder Misserfolg eines Unternehmens, so Porter. Ein Unternehmen kann im Vergleich zu seinen Konkurrenten viele Stärken und Schwächen aufweisen, die sich aber sämtlich auf nur zwei Grundtypen reduzieren lassen: Entweder hat ein Unternehmen einen Kostenvorsprung oder es bietet seinen Abnehmern einen einzigartigen Nutzen. Der eine Wettbewerbsvorteil liegt also auf der Angebots-, der andere auf der Nachfrageseite.
This article outlines a practical set of four challenges to senior management who wish to quickly self assess the “fitness” of their organization to manage risk. These four challenges arise from the business and project risk environment in the context of organizational and personal attitudes to risk: Do we understand the shareholder value risks of our strategy choices? Do we understand the risks that our structure and processes pose for implementation of chosen strategies? Is the risk appetite of the organization consistent with the risk appetite of our staff? Are we confident that our staff are effective and efficient in reacting to, and dealing with, risk? The four challenges offered in this paper will enable senior managers to broadly self-assess an organization’s ability to manage risk as both a value-creating opportunity as well as a value-protecting activity.
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide a new and systematic approach towards strategic foresight by combining traditional external scenarios (market‐based approach) with internal scenarios (resource‐based approach) into a future scorecard, which can be used to describe alternative internal development paths for an organization.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper builds on the existing literature as well as on multiple case examples to illustrate the application of the future scorecard.
Findings
The findings of this paper are that it is possible to combine the external (market‐based) and internal (resource‐based) view to create a strategic early warning system.
Practical implications
The implications for practitioners are twofold, first, the paper outlines the importance of integrating a future perspective into performance measurement systems, second, it demonstrates the applicability of scenario thinking for the internal resource‐based view of the firm.
Originality/value
The paper combines thinking of the market‐based and the resource‐based view of the firm in order to provide a new tool to supplement most static measurement approaches with a tool that monitors the future developments – externally and internally. Scenarios are traditionally used to describe possible alternative future developments in the external environment, which then inform current strategy assessment and future strategy development. However, with a shift in focus away from the market‐based paradigm and towards a resource‐based view of strategy, scenarios can also be used to describe alternative internal development paths for an organization. These two types of scenarios can then be systematically developed and combined to form a significant element of a strategic early warning system – the future scorecard.
Front FlapIn business and investing, risk has traditionally been viewed negatively: investors and companies can lose money due to risk and therefore we typically penalize companies for taking risks. That's why most books on risk management focus strictly on hedging or mitigating risk.But the enterprise's relationship with risk should be far more nuanced. Great companies become great because they seek out and exploit intelligent risks, not because they avoid all risk. Strategic Risk Taking: A Framework for Risk Management is the first book to take this broader view, encompassing both risk hedging at one end of the spectrum and strategic risk taking on the other.World-renowned financial pioneer Aswath Damodaranï¾one of BusinessWeek's top 12 business school professorsï¾is singularly well positioned to take this strategic view. Here, Damodaran helps you separate good risk (opportunities) from bad risk (threats), showing how to utilize the former while protecting yourself against the latter. He introduces powerful financial tools for evaluating risk, and demonstrates how to draw on other disciplines to make these tools even more effective.Simply put, Damodaran has written the first book that helps you use risk to increase firm value, drive higher growth and returns, and create real competitive advantage.·ï¾ ï¾ Risk: the history and the psychologyThe non-financial realities you must understand to successfully manage risk·ï¾ ï¾ Risk assessment: from the basics to the cutting edgeRisk Adjusted Value, probabilistic approaches, Value at Risk, and more·ï¾ ï¾ Utilizing the power of real optionsExtending option pricing models to reflect the potential upside of risk exposure·ï¾ ï¾ Risk management: the big pictureIntegrating traditional finance with corporate strategyï¾and using risk strategicallyBack FlapAbout the AuthorAswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, has been profiled in BusinessWeek as one of the United States' top twelve business school professors. His researchinterests include valuation, portfolio management, and applied corporate finance. He is the author of Damodaran on Valuation; Investment Valuation; The Dark Side of Valuation; Corporate Finance: Theory and Practice; Applied Corporate Finance; and most recently, Investment Fables.Damodaran has published in The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, The Journal of Finance, The Journal of Financial Economics, and The Review of Financial Studies.Back CoverBeyond Traditional Hedging: How to Use Risk Management Financial Techniques Strategically!·How to determine which risks to ignore, which to protect against, and which to actively exploit·By Aswath Damodaran, leading finance authority and one of BusinessWeek's top 12 business school professors·For every corporate finance executive, manager, analyst, consultant, researcher, and studentIn recent years, risk management has been defined as merely eliminating or reducingrisk exposure. Companies are learning today that is far too narrow and constraining a definition. Risk, exploited judiciously, is absolutely central to business success. In Strategic Risk Taking: A Framework for Risk Management, Aswath Damodaran covers both sides of the risk equation, offering a complete framework for maximizing profit by limiting some risks and exploiting others.Damodaran presents a thorough and insightful review of the state-of-the-art in risk measurement, hedging, and mitigation. He covers a broad spectrum of risk assessment tools, including risk adjusted value, scenario analysis, decision trees, VAR, and real options. But Damodaran goes far beyond other treatments of the subject, helping you decide when to deliberately increase exposure to certain risks, and clearly assess the potential dangers and payoffs of doing so.http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
This article discusses the steps to success for organizations that want to improve their enterprise risk management. Management teams and boards of organizations of all types and sizes need to challenge themselves and their organizations to excel at strategic risk management. Developing strategic risk management processes and capabilities can become a strong foundation for improving risk management and governance. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
The paper presents a systematic approach for early identification and fast response to important trends and events which impact on the firm. Two versions of such an approach are described: a strong signal and a weak signal strategic issue management system.
Strategic issue management, which responds to signals in “real time”, is compared to periodic strategic planning, and criteria for choice among the three are proposed.
A successful manufacturing scale cell culture process has as its basis a well-designed process. However, even the best designed large-scale process can become unreliable if not managed properly. The primary element to successful management of all large-scale processes is the careful attention to the details, especially the most important ones. The second element that requires serious consideration is the operation of that process within the confines of current regulatory environments. The major considerations are: 1. Adequate raw material specifications and testing. 2. Facility and equipment design that maximizes operational success and meets current regulatory requirements. 3. Thoroughly written procedures covering all aspects of operation and maintenance, and supported by a thorough documentation and review system. 4. A dedicated staff with a thorough understanding of systems and the importance of operational details. 5. Continual training and retraining programs. 6. Sound process and facility validation programs. 7. Comprehensive preventive maintenance programs. 8. Thorough understanding of process and facility trends, and the expected and acceptable ranges of results. 9. Development of sound procedures and practices that minimize batch losses and permit operation within current regulatory requirements. 10. Thorough and continual monitoring of all critical process parameters. 11. Process scheduling to minimize batch jeopardy or loss while maximizing throughout. 12. Maintenance of the appropriate environmental conditions of the plant and general cleanliness of plant and equipment. 13. Adequate batch loss prevention programs. 14. Adequate troubleshooting programs. 15. Adequate support organization and facilities both internally and externally to plant operations. With the appropriate application of sound process design and management principles, and with operational experience, large-scale cell culture process plants can be operated at success rates that exceed 95%.
Examines timely multidisciplinary applications, problems, and case histories in risk modeling, assessment, and management. Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Third Edition describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, homeland security, management, and public policy. Unlike any other text on the subject, this definitive work applies the art and science of risk analysis to current and emergent engineering and socioeconomic problems. It clearly demonstrates how to quantify risk and construct probabilities for real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, and political issues. Avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible, this important new edition presents basic concepts as well as advanced material. It incorporates numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion and features restructured and updated chapters, as well as: A new chapter applying systems-driven and risk-based analysis to a variety of Homeland Security issues. An accompanying FTP site-developed with Professor Joost Santos-that offers 150 example problems with an Instructor's Solution Manual and case studies from a variety of journals. Case studies on the 9/11 attack and Hurricane Katrina. An adaptive multiplayer Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) game added to Chapter Three. This is an indispensable resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in such diverse areas as homeland and cyber security, healthcare, the environment, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more. It is also a valuable textbook for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses with a focus on our uncertain world.
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