Karber RUS-UKR War Lessons Learned

Full text

The Potomac Foundation
DRAFT
“Lessons'Learned”'
from'the'
Russo2Ukrainian'War'
./0$1234435$'0$67/89/$
Prepared'at'the'request'of'Lt.GEN'H.R.'McMaster,'commander,'U.S.'Army'Capabilities'
Integration' Center' (ARCIC),' TRADOC,' for' the' “Historical' Lessons' Learned' Workshop.”'
This' paper' is' a' draft,' meaning' it' is' incomplete' and' missing' important' information.'
The' material' and' analyses' presented' here' is' based' on personal'observations' that'
should' viewed as a set of tentative hypotheses that need further research and validation.
8!July!2015!
(revised'edit'29'September'2015)'
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It is believed that smart people learn from the
mistakes of others in order to not repeat them.1
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1'' Artis'Pabriks''“Foreword,”'THE'WAR'IN'UKRAINE:'LESSONS'FOR'EUROPE,'edited'by'Artis'Pabriks'&'
Andis'Kudors,'(Center'for'East'European'Policy'Studies;'Riga,'LVA:'University'of'Latvia'Press,'2016):'p.'6.'
2'' The'intervention'in'Crimea'is'dated'from'the'first'over\flight'and'entry'of'Russian'airmobile'units'on'
27'January'2014;'the'Donbas'events'started'with'protests'in'February,'seizures'of'government'facilities'in'
March,'and'open'insurrection'in'April;'the'Ukrainian'government,'after'experimenting'with'an'
unreciprocated'“ceasefire”'in'June,'launched'their'“Plan'B”'counteroffensive'on'2'July.'
3'' “Russia'has'made'numerous'nuclear'threats,'buzzed'U.S.'and'NATO'ships'in'the'Black'Sea,'moved'
Iskander'missiles'to'Crimea'and'Kaliningrad,'built'up'a'formidable'anti\access'and'area\denial'(A2AD)'
force'along'the'Russian'border,'conducted'major'Arctic'exercises'and'continued'its'probes'against'
northern'European'and'U.S.'targets.”'Stephen'Blank,'“The'Slow'Mobilization'toward'War'with'Putin,”'
NEWSWEEK,'(3'July'2015),'at'<'http://www.newsweek.com/slow\mobilization\toward\war\putin\349765'
> [accessed'3'July'2015'>.

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4'' Jānis'Bērziņš,'“Russian'New'Generation'Warfare'is'Not'Hybrid'Warfare,”'in'THE'WAR'IN'UKRAINE:'
LESSONS'FOR'EUROPE,'op'cit:'p.'43.'“Therefore,'it'is'a'methodological'mistake'to'try'to'frame'a'theory'
developed'independently'by'the'Russian'military'on'a'theory'developed'in'another'country,'therefore'
reflecting'another'culture’s'way'of'thinking,'and'strategic'understanding'about'the'way'to'conduct'
warfare.”'

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"#$%!
MAR''\\'National'Defense'and'Security'Council'&'General'Staff'meetings'&'briefings;'
'\\'Kiev'armaments'factory;'
' –'North'East'Front:'Chernigov'Oblast'–'1st'Armored'BDE'&'Border'Guards;'
' –'Eastern'Front:'Sumy'Oblast:'30th'Mechanized'BDE'&'SBU;'
APR''\\'Southern'Front:'Odessa'Oblast,'Mykolaiv'Oblast,'Kherson'Oblast,'95th'Air'
Assault'Brigade'on'Crimean'causeway,'Dnepropetrovsk'HQ;'
JUN''\\'Kharkiv'armament'plant,'92nd'Mech'BDE,'observed'incoming'MLRS'strike;'
JUL''\\'Observed'battle'of'Sloviansk'with'Special'Forces'&'95th'Air'Assault'Brigade;'
AUG''\\'Kharkiv'Tank'Academy;''
'\\'Kramatorsk'ATO'HQ,'Armored'repair'facility,'Attack'Helo'Unit;'
SEP'\\'95th'Air'Assault'BDE'(armored);'
'\\'Observed'fighting'at'Sector'“M”'Mariupol,'Azov'Battalion,'25th'Airborne'
Brigade;'
OCT'\\'Air'Force'Bases'–'Mig'29,'Su\27,'Su\24;'
'\\'Aircraft'Refit'Factory'at'Lviv.'
"#$&!
JAN''\\'MoD'&'MoI'meetings'and'intell'briefings;'
'\\'Dnepropetrovsk'Oblast:'Dnepro\1'Regiment,'Peacekeeper'and'Donbas'
volunteer'Battalions;'
'\\'Observed'fighting'at'Pisky'(Donetsk'Airport)'&'Volnovaka;'
FEB''\\'Southern'Front'Command'HQ;'
'\\'Yusemash''Missile'Design'Center'&'Factory;'
'\\'Air'Force'units:'Mig\29,'Su\25,'Mi\8,'Mi\24;'
MAR''\\'Sector'“M”'Mariupol'Defense'Command;'
'\\'Sector'“B:”'72nd'Mech'BDE,'28th'Mech'BDE,'93rd'Mech'BDE;'
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5'' Invitation'from'the'Secretary'of'Ukraine’s'National'Defense'and'Security'Council,'Andriy'Parubiy,'
and''Viktor'Chumak,'Head'of'the'Parliamentary'Committee'on'Fighting'Organized'Crime'and'Corruption,'
“Letter,”'(control'#'0412101340;'Kiev,'UKRL''Verkhovna'Rada,'28'March'2014).'
6'' Col.'General'Stepan'Poltorak,'PhD,'Minister'of'Defense,'“Letter,”'(control'#'000640;'Kiev,'UKR:'
Ministry'of'Defense,'27'November'2014).'

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'\\'Sector'“C:”'30th'Mech'BDE,'17th'Armored'BDE;'
'\\'Sector'“A:”'24th'Mech'BDE,'92nd'Mech'BDE;'
'\\'Observed'fighting'on'the'Severtsky'river'line;'
APR''\\'Artemorsk'Command'&'Hospital,'Special'Forces;'
'\\'Observed'fighting'at'Pisky;'
JUN''\\'Mariupol'&'Volnovaka,'observed'fighting'at'Sheroke;'
'\\'73rd'Naval'Infantry'&'SEAL'team;'
'\\'Wounded'in'MLRS'strike'at'Lebedyns’ky.'
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7'' Reports'on'Ukraine'by'The'Potomac'Foundation:'
•!Gen.'(ret.)'Wesley'Clark'&'Dr.'P.A.'Karber,'“Non\Lethal'Military'Aid'to'Ukraine,”'(8'April'2014),'
commissioned'by'the'House'of'Representatives'Armed'Services'Committee,'publicly'released'
and'available'at'<'https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1114174\clark\karber\report\
with\appendix.html'>.'
•!Gen.'(ret.)'Wesley'Clark'&'Dr.'P.A.'Karber,'“Russian'State'Sponsored'Terrorism'against'Ukraine,”'
(23'July'2014),'presented'in'closed'session'to'the'full'HASC,'restricted'distribution;'
•!Dr.'P.A.'Karber,'“Ukraine’s'‘Plan'B’'&'Russia’s'Summer'Offensive,”'(5'September'2014),'restricted'
distribution;'
•!Dr.'P.A.'Karber,'“Russia’s'Winter'Offensive,”'(16'February),'restricted'distribution;'
•!Dr.'P.A.'Karber,'“Beyond'Minsk'II:'Prospects'for'a'New'Russian'Offensive,'(12'May'2014),'publicly'
available'at'<'http://www.thepotomacfoundation.org/beyond\minsk\ii\prospects\for\a\new\
russian\offensive/'>;'
•!Dr.'P.A.'Karber,'“Russian'‘New'Generation'Warfare’'in'Ukraine:'Implications'for'NATO'and'the'US'
Army,”'(16'June'2015),'restricted'distribution.'

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“Lessons!Learned”!Framework!for!Analysis'
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8'' Referenced'repeatedly'in:'B.'H.'Liddell\Hart,'THE'LIDDELL\HART'MEMOIRS'1895\1938,'(London,'UK:'
Putnam'Sons,'1965).'
9'' Ironically,'the'lessons'each'drew'with'respect'to'tanks,'were'not'from'their'own'forces,'but'the'
opponents.'Examining'the'poor'results'of'German'light'tanks'in'the'offensive,'the'Russians'concluded'that'
the'main'value'of'the'weapons'was'in'distributed'defense;'while'the'Germans'were'impressed'with'the'
heavier'Russian'tanks'used'in'larger'offensive'concentrations.'Robert'M.'Citino,'QUEST'FOR'DECIVE'
VICTORY'FROM'STALEMATE'TO'BLITZKRIEG'IN'EUROPE,'1899\1940,'(Lawrence,'KS,:'University'of'Kansas,'
2002):'p.'243.'
10'' This'was'particularly'true'with'respect'to'the'German'Air'Force,'where'they'were'able'to'introduce'
new'weapons'and'rapidly'adjust'designs'based'on'this'test\bed'environment.'Peter'H.'Oppenheimer,'
“From'the'Spanish'Civil'War'to'the'Fall'of'France:'Luftwaffe'Lessons'Learned'and'Applied,”'INSTITUTE'FOR'
HISTORICAL'REVIEW,'<'http://www.ihr.org/jhr/v07/v07p133_Oppenheimer.html'>'[accessed'10'May'
2015].'
11'' For'a'detailed'discussion'of'Soviet'mis\learning'of'the'lessons'of'Spain,'see:'John'Erickson,'THE'ROAD'
TO'STALINGRAD,'(New'York,'NY:'Harper'&'Row;'1975).'

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12'' Rick'Atkinson,'THE'LONG'GRAY'LINE,'(New'York,'NY:'Houghton'Mifflin,'1989):'p,'383.'
13'' Robert'Tomes,'US'DEFENSE'STRATEGY'FROM'VIETNAM'TO'OPERATION'IRAQUI'FREEDOM:'MILITARY'
INNOVATION'AND'THE'NEW'AMERICAN'WAY'OF'WAR,'(Miltin'Park,'UK:'Routledge,'2007):'pp.'70\77.'
14'' P.A.'Karber,'“Cold'War'Lessons'in'Competitive'Awareness,”'(working'paper;'OSD'Net'Assessment,'
revised'8'January'2010).'
15'' “Handbook'on'Aggressor'Military'Forces,”'(FM'30\102;'Washington,'DC:'US'Government'Printing'
Office,'1969);'“Aggressor'Order'of'Battle,”'(FM'30\103;'Washington,'DC:'US'Government'Printing'Office,'
1966);'and'“Esperanto,'the'Aggressor'Language,”'(FM'30\101\1;'Washington,'DC:'US'Government'Printing'
Office,'February'1962).'For'background'on'the'Army’s'use'of'Esperanto,'see:'Pat'McWilliams,'“A'Most'
Unusual'Army'Manual,”'(Kansas'City,'KS:'Manion’s'International,'2009),'at'<'
http://www.manions.com/archive/articles/a%20most%20unusual%20army%20manual.htm'>'[accessed'
11'Sept.'2009]:'notes'that'identifying'the'Soviet'Union'as'the'prime'opponent'and'“the'employment'of'
Russian'…'might'have'seemed'a'little'too'‘aggressive’'so'a'‘neutral'inter\language’,'not'identifiable'with'
any'alliance'or'ideology'“'was'used'to'represent'“a'fictitious'nation'created'by'the'Army'to'serve'as'an'
opponent'in'training'exercises.”'Aggressor'forces'were'dressed'in'dark'green'uniforms'“complete'with'a'
full'range'of'collar'&'shoulder'insignia.'Standard'M\1'helmets'were'fitted'with'a'distinctive'wooden'ridge'
similar'to'the'comb'on'an'old'French'Adriane.'In'addition,'special'manuals'were'prepared'for'intelligence'
forces,'detailing'the'history,'politics,'and'military'structure'of'Aggressor.'There'were'even'tables'of'
organization'of'imaginary'Aggressor'units,'complete'with'fabricated'campaign'histories.”'

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16'' Robert'A.'Doughty,'THE'EVOLUTION'OF'THE'US'ARMY'TACTICAL'DOCTRINE:'1946\76,'(Ft.'
Leavenworth,'KA:'U.S.'Army'Command'and'General'Staff'College'Press,'2001).'
17'' For' the' author’s' take' at' the' time,' see:' P.A.' Karber,' “Operational' Asymmetries' in' Combined' Arms'
Combat.”' (paper' presented' to' the' Office' of' the' Secretary' of' Defense' Symposium' on' Net' Assessment'
Methodology,''Leesburg,'VA:'May'1974).'
18'' For'example:'“Soviet'ATGMs:'Capabilities'and'Countermeasures,”'(Bulletin'#2;'Ft.'Monroe,'VA:'
TRADOC,'February'1975).'
19'' P.A.'Karber,'““Dynamic'Doctrine'for'Dynamic'Defense.”'ARMED'FORCES'JOURNAL,'(December'1976).'
20'' P.A.'Karber,'“Soviet'Lessons'of'the'1973'Middle'East'War:'A'Tactical'Revolution'in'Ground'Warfare.”'
(paper'presented'at'the'Fifteenth'Annual'US'Army'Operations'Research'Symposium,'Ft.'Lee,'VA:'
published'in'PROCEEDINGS'AORS'XV,'Vol.'I,'October'1976);'and'P.A.'Karber,'“The'Soviet'Antitank'Debate.”'
SURVIVAL'(June'1976),'''Reprinted'in'MILITARY'REVIEW,'(November'1976).'
21''

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'3/$ !?/>9$ 7@E$ '/;=$ S?3@<4=$ 5/?EC>9E$ '3/47@E$ `7<<49$<27<$ <29@$ 9G57@E9E$ <?$<29$
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22'' P.A.'Karber,'“The'Impact'of'New'Conventional'Technologies'on'Military'Doctrine'and'Organization.”'
ADELPHI'PAPER,'no.'144,'(1978);'and'reprinted'in'NEW'CONVENTIONAL'WEAPONS'AND'EAST\WEST'
SECURITY,'edited'by'Christoph'Bertram,'(London,'UK:'International'Institute'of'Strategic'Studies,'1978).'
23'' P.A.'Karber,'“Die'Taktische'Revolution'in'die'Sowjetischen'Militaerdoktrin.”'EUROPAISCHE'
WEHRKUNDE,'Parts'1'and'2,'(Jun/Jul'1977),'reprinted'as'“The'Tactical'Revolution'in'Soviet'Military'
Doctrine,”in'the'volume'ART'OF'WAR'COLLOQUIM,'Vol.'39,'(Carlisle'Barracks,'PA:'US'Army'War'College,'
1983).'
24'' Richard'Swain,'“Filling'the'Void:'The'Operational'Art'and'the'U.S.'Army,”'THE'OPERATIONAL'ART:'
DEVELOPMENT'IN'THEORIES'OF'WAR,'edited'by'B.J.C.'McKercher'and'Michael'A.'Hennessy,'(Westport,'
CT:'Praeger,'1996),'p.'
153ff.'
25'' Gen.'Donn'A.'Starry,'“Battlefield'Development'Plan,”'(Ft.'Monroe,'VA:'TRADOC,'1979).'
26'' Donn'A.'Starry,'“A'Tactical'Evolution'–'FM'100\5,”'MILITARY'REVIEW,'(March'1977):'pp.'2\11.'
Donn'A.'Starry,'"Extending'the'Battlefield,"'MILITARY'REVIEW,'(March'1981):'pp.'31ff.'
27'' See:'John'L.'Romjue,'“The'Evolution'of'the'Airland'Battle'Concept,”'AIR'UNIVERSITY'REVIEW,'(May\
June'1984);'Richard'Swain,'“Airland'Battle,”'in'CAMP'COLT'TO'DESERT'STORM:'THE'HISTORY'OF'US'
ARMORED'FORCES,'(Lexington,'KY:'University'of'Kentucky'Press,'1999);'and'Martin'J.'D’Amato,'“Vigilant'
Warrior:'General'Donn'A.'Starry’s'Airland'Battle'and'How'it'Changed'the'Army,”'ARMOR,'vol.'59,'no.'3,'
(May\June'2000):'p.'19\46.'

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28'' P.A.'Karber,'“Battlefield'Leverage:''Hierarchy'and'Transition'in'Central'Battle,”'(Ft.'Monroe,'VA:'
TRADOC,'1979).'

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29'' The'Tu\141,'uses'a'high\resolution'camera,'but'unlike'“a'modern\day'Predator'or'Reaper'drone,'
which'can'orbit'for'long'periods'while'scanning'with'high\tech'sensors.'Nor'is'the'Tu\141'capable'of'
killing.'The'47\foot\long,'delta\wing'Tu\141'is'purely'a'reconnaissance'vehicle.'With'its'powerful'KR\17A'
turbojet,'it'zips'over'a'target'at'a'height'of'nearly'20,000'feet'and'a'top'speed'of'more'than'600'miles'per'
hour—all'while'snapping'pictures.'The'drone'doesn’t'even'land'like'a'conventional'aircraft.'Instead,'it'
relies'on'a'parachute'and'retro'rockets'to'gradually'descend—while'still'floating'in'the'upright'and'
horizontal'position.”'“Ukraine'Resurrects'Soviet'Era'Super\Drones,”'WAR'is'BORING,'(14'June'2014),'<'
https://medium.com/war\is\boring/ukraine\resurrects\soviet\era\super\drones\3403f80c51ba'>'
[accessed'15'May'2015].'

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30'' “Ukrainian'Activists'are'Developing'a'New'Weapon'to'add'to'their'Anti\Russian'arsenal:'
Reconnaissance'Drones,”'VOCATIVE,'(30'May'2014),'at'<'
http://www.vocativ.com/tech/infosec/ukrainians\anti\putin\strategy\drones/'>'[accessed'12'May'2015].'

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•' BM\21'Grad%%(Hail)'–'original'122'mm'40\round'mounted'launcher'mounted'on'a'
Ural\375'chassis,'rocket'range'20km'firing'a'traditional'round'with'high\explosive;''
•' BM\21\1'improved%Grad'\\'a'122'mm'40\round'launcher'mounted'on'a'Ural\43201'
truck'with'new'rocket'with'50%'increased'range,'satellite'navigation,'automated'fire'
control,'and'auto\laying'system'firing'a'new'version'with'DPICM'as'well'as'canister'
sub\munitions'(HEAT,'Anti\tank,'mines);''
•' TOS\1'\\'a'220'mm'30'round'launcher'mounted'on'T\72'chassis,'with'a'range'of'6km'
specializing'as'a'flame'thrower'of'thermobaric'warheads;'
•' BM\27'Uragan%(Hurricane)'\\'220'mm'16'round'launcher,'with'a'range'of'35km'
capable'of'firing'a'wide'array'of'munitions'including;'DPICM,'scatterable'mines,'anti\
tank'munitions'and'thermobaric'warheads;'
•' BM\30'Smerch%(Whirlwind)'—'300'mm''12'round'launcher'with'a'range'of'90km,'
canister'capable'of'carrying'DPICM,'sub\munitions,'top\attack'self\guided'munitions'
and'thermobaric'warhead.''
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31'' Scheduled'to'be'out'of'U.S.'inventory'by'the'end'of'the'year.'

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32'' “Artillery'Section'of'the'55th'Brigade'successfully'conducted'Exercises'with'New'Tools,”'
PHOTONEWS,'(4'July'2015),'at''<http://censor.net.ua/photo_news/342629/pushechnyyidivizion'
_55yi_brigady_uspeshno_provel_ucheniya_s_novymi_orudiyami_fotoreportaj'>'[accessed'5'July'2015].'

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33'' The'U.S.'supplied'20'counter\mortar'radar.'At'least'20%'of'which'have'been'lost:'2'lost'to'counter\
fire;'and'2'lost'in'the'overrun'of'the'Debaltseve'encirclement,'one'of'which'is'now'being'used'by'
separatists'against'the'Ukrainian'24th'Mechanized'Brigade.''

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34'' P.A.'Karber,'“Reactive'Armor'and'the'New'Soviet'Tank'Threat,”'Armed'Forces'Journal,'(May'1987).'

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35'' “In'late'March'2014'a'number'of'videos'were'published'online'reportedly'showing'the'deployment'
by'rail'of'Russian'Main'Battle'Tanks'(MBTs)'to'areas'adjoining'the'border'with'Ukraine.'These'include'an'
unknown'number'of'T\72B3'MBTs….'The'T\72B3'is'the'latest'update'of'the'venerable,'Soviet\era'T\72'
MBT'family,'which'forms'the'majority'of'the'active'Russian'MBT'fleet….'In'comparison'to'earlier'T\72B'
series'variants,'the'T\72B3'incorporates'a'number'of'upgrades'designed'to'improve'offensive'capability.''

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36'' These'are'reported'to'include'a'new'fire\control'system,'a'ballistics'computer'to'improve'accuracy,'
and'all\weather'thermal'sights.'In'addition,'the'MBT'features'a'new'arrangement'of'Explosive'Reactive'
Armour'(ERA)'on'the'turret'(a'key'recognition'aid).”'Joseph'Dempsey,'“Russia'deploys'latest'Tank'variant'
to'Ukraine'Border,”'IISS'MILITARY'BALANCE'BLOG,'(17'April'2014),'at'<'
https://www.iiss.org/en/militarybalanceblog/blogsections/2014\3bea/april\7347/russia\deploys\latest\
tank\fa72'>'[accessed'11'May'2015].'

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37'' T\64'versus'other'T\64,'early'model'T\72'and'T\80s.'

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/9>9@<4=$89>?;9$5C843>744=$7J73478490$$
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f$ KExplanation Note for the Decision of Using Group of Forces ‘North’;”39
f$ KExplanation Note for the Plan of Fire Destroying of the Enemy;”40
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
38'' INFORESIST'(14'June'2015)'<'https://psb4ukr.org/'>'[accessed'22'June'2015].'See:'P.A.'Karber,'P.A.''
Petersen,'Nicholas'Myers,'Rafal'Atachowski,'Natalya'Anfilofyeva,'Oksana'Skidan,'and'Roman'Mashovets,'
“Russian'2014'Invasion'Plan:'Major'Objectives,'Axes'of'Advance'&'Time'Lines,”'(working'paper;'Tysons'
Corner,'VA:'The'Potomac'Foundation,'22'June'2015)'for'a'summary'of'the'documents'and'analysis'of'the'
2024'Russia'offensive'OP'PLAN'to'seize'eastern'Ukraine'up'to'the'Dnepr.'
39'' “Explanation'Note'for'the'Decision'of'Using'Group'of'Forces'‘North’,”'with'unsigned'signature'blocs'
for'Commander'of'the'Western'Military'District.'Colonel\General.'A.Sidorov'&'Chief'of'Staff'of'the'
Western'Military'District,'Lieutenant\General.'V.Astapov;'partial'document:'pp.'1\12,'19\41.''

!"#$"!!%&%'($)*+$",(-$
f$ KDecision for Using Group of Forces ‘North’ in the Special Operation;”41$
f$ KList of Most Important Objects of Reconnaissance of Ukraine;”42
f$ !3/9$147@$[7</3G$744?>7<3@I$:3;9$*9bC9@>9E$'DD9<D$7I73@D<$:7/I9<DWYR$
f$ :7/I9<$'44?>7<3?@$147@$A?/$'/<3449/=O$#?>F9<D$7@E$[3DD349DWYY$
f$ *59>374$!?/>9D$'DD9<D$7@E$#9bC3/9;9@<DWYc$
f$ %@A?/;7<3?@$H7/A7/9$547@0LYd$
%<$D2?C4E$89$@?<9E$<27<$<29D9$E?>C;9@<D$7/9$>497/4=$3@$7$E/7A<$D<7I9O$@?<$D3I@9EO$7@E$
3@>?;549<9$V$7><3?@D$ 8=$ <29$ *?C<29/@$ [343<7/=$.3D</3><$]Group of Forces “South”) 7@E$
\.\$D59>374$A?/>9$3@D3E9$<29$.?@87D$7/9$744CE9E$<?$8C<$@?<$E9<7349E$ 7@E$;9@<3?@$?A$
<29$/?49$?A$<29$'3/$!?/>9O$,7J=$7@E$&/3;97@$7DD9<D$7/9$@?<3>97849$3@$<293/$78D9@>9$MM$
547@@3@I$A?/$<2?D9$7DD9<D$7/9$@?<$3@>4CE9E$3@$<23D$D9/39D0$$
,9J9/<2949DDO$ <29D9$ E?>C;9@<D$ 75597/$ 7C<29@<3>O$ 27J9$ E9<734D$ <27<$ B?C4E$
?@4=$89$7J7347849$<?$<29$#CDD37@$'/;=O$7@E$7/9$E3/9><4=$/949J7@<$<?$7@$C@E9/D<7@E3@I$
?A$<29$57D<$7@E$AC<C/9$?A$<29$?@I?3@I$#CDD?M)F/73@37@$H7/0 H27<$3D$;?D<$3@<9/9D<3@I$
78?C<$<23D$;7<9/374$3D$<27<$3<$@?<$?@4=$5/?J3E9D$3@>/9E3849$E9<734$?@$<29$A?/>9D$?A$8?<2$
D3E9D$7D$B944$7D$F9=$<9//73@$7@E$?59/7<3?@74$49J94$?8S9><3J9D$`):$74D?$I3J9D$7$C@3bC9$
59/D59><3J9$3@<?$2?B$<29$#CDD37@D$;9<2?E3>744=$547@$A?/$DC>2$7$47/I9MD>749$?AA9@D3J9$
?59/7<3?@$7@EO$9J9@$ ;?/9$C@3bC9O$5/?J3E9D$7$ 87D9$A?/$C@E9/D<7@E3@I$2?B$<27@$>7@$
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
40'' “Explanation'Note'for'the'Plan'of'Fire'Destroying'of'the'Enemy;”'with'unsigned'signature'blocs'
for'Chief'of'Staff'of'the'Western'Military'District,'Lieutenant'General,'V.Astapov'&'Director'of'Operations'
of'the'Western'Military'District'Headquarters.'Maj.\Gen.''I.'Kovalenko;'complete'document:'pp.'1\18.'
41'' “Decision'for'Using'Group'of'Forces'‘North’'in'the'Special'Operation;”'with'unsigned'signature'
bloc'for'Commander'of'the'Western'Military'District,'Colonel\General,'A.'Sidorov;'complete'document:'
pp.'1\16.'
42'' “List'of'Important'Objects'of'Reconnaissance'in'Ukraine;”'and'“List'of'Critical'Objects'of'
Reconnaissance'in'Ukraine;”'with'unsigned'signature'blocs'for'Chief'of'Staff,'First'Deputy'Commander'of'
the'Western'Military'District,'Lieutenant'General,''V.'Astapov'&'District'Intelligence'Chief,'Col.''L.'
Toropov;'complete'document:'pp.'1\15.'
43'' “Report'of'Chief'of'Rocket'&'Artillery'Directorate,'with'unsigned'signature'bloc'for'Chief'of'Missile'
Forces'and'Artillery'of'the'Western'District,'Maj.\Gen.'O.'Kyvshynov;'partial'document:'4'pages'with'Unit,'
Weapon'&'Target'Allocation'Charts.'
44'' “Distribution'of'Forces'and'Means'of'Missile'and'Artillery'on'Operational'Tasks,"'unsigned'signature'
bloc'for'Chief'of'Missile'Forces'and'Artillery'of'the'Western'District,'Major'General,'O.'Kyvshynov;'
incomplete'document:'2'pages.'
45'' “Calculation'of'Forces'and'Special\Purpose'Resources,”'chart,'no'author'identified,'incomplete'
document:'1'page.'
46'' “Conduct'of'Information'Action'Forces'and'Means'of'Maneuvering,”'no'author'identified,'complete'
document:'pp.'1\10.'

!"#$"!!%&%'($)*+$",(-$
89$E9<9//9E$8=$7$E9A9@E9/D$5/CE9@<$;343<7/=$/9D5?@D90$$
The Russian documents provide an incredible amount of geographic detail:
tactical, operational and strategic objectives; axes of advance; specific target lists with
coordinates. The Op Plan calls for the establishment of five routes of ingress of military
forces into Ukraine: two from Rostov Oblast into Donetsk Oblast and three from
Belgorod into Kharkov Oblast west of the$city. However, the documents do not include
any maps by which to organize and integrate this data into a coherent picture of the
overall plan.$From D1, three cities are listed as the primary objectives of the operation.
One is Kiev itself. The other two are staging grounds: Bogodukhov in the north and
Donskoye in the Donbass. The following gives a brief synopsis of the timeline for the
first two weeks of an invasion as geographic positions are reference in the documents:$
D1 Invasion starts north and south of the Donbas with major forces crossing into
Ukraine from Russia following massive fire strikes and corresponding with a
uprising in the Donbas led by Spetsnaz troops.
D2 Both Bogodukhov and Donskoye are captured, with forces taking Donskoye
slated to begin their advance on Dnepropetrovsk and were to be across the
Volchya River (which runs west of Donetsk city) by the end of the day.
D3 :29$ D?C<29/@$ A?/>9$ B7D$ <?$ 7EJ7@>9$ <?$ 7@E$ >/?DD$ <29$ *7;7/7$ #3J9/O$ B23>2$
A4?BD$ 3@<?$ <29$ .@95/$ #3J9/$ 7<$ .@95/?59</?JDF0$A no-fly zone will be in effect
over both Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, enforced by integrated Air
Defense network. Simultaneously Spetsnaz actions take place in the Donbas.
D4 Actions directed toward advancing to the strategic crossing points of the Dnepr-
Donbass Canal to consummate closing of the encirclement of all Ukrainian forces
available for the defense of Kharkiv.
D5-D6 Dedicated to establishing “Security Zone 1,” which is extends along the Vorskla
River (including the city of Poltava) down to the Dnepr and extending a region of
direct control to Dnepropetrovsk and Bogodukhov. This completes the
encirclement of Ukrainian forward forces in Kharkiv.
D7 Kharkiv and Dnepropetrovsk Oblasts are "under control;" Chugusa Airfield is
captured and used as staging field for further Russian aviation [attack & transport
helio) missions inside Ukraine. Russian 2nd echelon begins moving into
Bogodukhov even as the 1st echelon settles into occupation mode and VDV forces
are instructed to take control of Ukrainian border crossing sites along the entirety
of the remainder of the border.
D9 2nd echelon commences active operations, operating principally along the axis
Bogodukhov-Lubny-Kiev. Secondary axes are identified for the capture of
Kotelva (crossing point for the Vorskla River) and Kremenchuk (which controls

!"#$"!!%&%'($)*+$",(-$
the dam that forms the largest reservoir on the Dnepr).
D10 Spetsnaz are directed to capture all major crossing points of the Sula River with
special emphasis on Romny and Goroshino while the major thrust of the 2nd
echelon captures Lubny.
D10-D15 2nd echelon establishes "Security Zone 2," which follows a series of towns
defining all the major crossing points for control of the Desna, Sula, and Udai
Rivers. Russian forces are in the suburbs of Kiev on the east side of the Dnepr,
with the capital within artillery range. Ukrainian forces east of the Dnepr are
destroyed or surrounded. Russian troops control all of the Dnepr crossing points
down to Zaparoche and hold a line directly south through Melitopol to the Sea of
Azov.
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$
“Central!Battles”!Won!and!Lost!
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)F/73@37@$H7/0$$
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$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
47'' This'battle'was'personally'witnessed'by'the'author'and'is'also'based'on'interviews'with'the'
commanders'of'the'Special'Forces'and'95th''Brigade.'

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$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
48'' Based'on'interview'with'the'Commander'and'troops'of'the'95th'Air'Assault'Brigade'(Armored)'a'week'
after'they'returned'from'their'raid.'

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$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
49'' Jeb'Stewart’s'cavalry'raid'around'the'rear'of'McClelland'in'the'Peninsular'campaign.'
50'' Based'on'interviews'with'survivors'and'secondary'accounts.'

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51'' Based'on'interviews'with'the'Senior'Commander,'and'most'unit'commanders'as'well'as'many'
surviving'veterans'of'the'battle.'
52'' The'leadership'who'fled'were'imprisoned'for'“cowardice”'and'the'51st'Brigade'as'a'unit'was'dissolved'
and'its'colors'permanently'stricken.'

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53'' In'one'of'the'more'barbaric'acts'of'the'war,'the'Separatists'castrated'a'number'of'the'Ukrainian'
POWs,'presumably'as'part'of'a'“demoralization'campaign,”'and'then'later'returned'them'as'part'of'a'
prisoner'exchange.'
54'' The'September'defense'of'the'outskirts'of'the'city'and'presence'of'T\90'tanks'at'Novoazovsk'were'
personally'witnessed'by'the'author'and'local'commanders'as'well'as'members'of'the'volunteer'Azov'
battalion'were'interviewed.'In'March'the'Sector'Commander'was'interviewed'at'length.'In'May'return'
visits'were'made'to'the'defending'units,'and'in'June,'while'observing'the'burning'of'Sheroke'on'patrol'
with'Ukrainian'Special'Forces,'the'author'was'wounded'in'MLRS'strike'at'Lebedyns’ky.'

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55'' Based'on'secondary'reports'and'detailed'interview'with'the'near\by'92nd'Mechanized'Brigade'
Commander.'

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$
SSS!
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/9DC554=$A?/$<29$E9A9@E9/D$7@E$DC55?/<$<29;$B3<2$3@M/7@I9$7/<3449/=0$$
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56'' Based'on'direct'observation'in'January,'including'interviews'with'the'troops'going'in'for'the'last'
rotation'(none'of'which'survived).'Returned'in'May'during'the'ceasefire'and'personally'observed'heavy'
incoming'artillery'and'machine'gun'fire'at'Pisky'as'well'as'interviews'with'adjacent'Commanders.'

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57'' Based'on'interviews'with'adjacent'Brigade'commanders'and'many'survivors'of'the'pocket.'

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58'' The'commander'received'a'“hero’s”'medal,'the'unit'flag'and'survivors'were'sent'back'to'their'home'
base'in'Mukachenvo'on'the'Western'border'to'reform'it'from'scratch.'

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