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Young Europeans’ political responses to the economic crisis have neither been uniform nor overly promising for the future of democratic Europe. We seek to identify potential causal relationships between young peoples’ employment status and choice of political participation (i.e. both traditional and non-traditional forms of political participation, as well as emerging alternatives). Although politicians and academics highlight that young people are increasingly disengaged from conventional politics, and papers have been published about different aspects of this topic, young peoples’ perspectives and generational differences are rarely taken into account simultaneously. In this paper we characterize the consequences of the economic and employment conditions of youth on political engagement. Our paper focuses on Hungary, which has struggled with youth unemployment. The paper involves secondary data analysis of cross-national surveys, involving six datasets (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2015) from the European Social Survey (ESS). Results indicate that greater involvement and responsibility in the workplace increase political participation, whereas the impact of the other labour market indicators (unemployment, work flexibility) on political participation is not straightforward.
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INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
PÉTER RÓBERT, DÁNIEL OROSS AND ANDREA SZABÓ
Youth, Precarious Employment and Political
Participation in Hungary
[robert.peter@tk.mta.hu] (HAS Centre for Social Sciences, Hungary);
[oross.daniel@tk.mta.hu] (HAS Centre for Social Sciences, Hungary);
[szabo.andrea@tk.mta.hu] (HAS Centre for Social Sciences, Hungary)
Intersections. EEJSP
3(1): 120-146.
DOI: 10.17356/ieejsp.v3i1.299
http://intersections.tk.mta.hu
Abstract
Young Europeans’ political responses to the economic crisis have
neither been uniform nor overly promising for the future of
democratic Europe. We seek to identify potential causal relationships
between young peoples’ employment status and choice of political
participation (i.e. both traditional and non-traditional forms of
political participation, as well as emerging alternatives). Although
politicians and academics highlight that young people are increasingly
disengaged from conventional politics, and papers have been
published about different aspects of this topic, young peoples’
perspectives and generational differences are rarely taken into account
simultaneously. In this paper we characterize the consequences of the
economic and employment conditions of youth on political
engagement. Our paper focuses on Hungary, which has struggled with
youth unemployment.
The paper involves secondary data analysis of cross-national surveys,
involving six datasets (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2015) from the
European Social Survey (ESS). Results indicate that greater
involvement and responsibility in the workplace increase political
participation, whereas the impact of the other labour market
indicators (unemployment, work flexibility) on political participation is
not straightforward.
Keywords:
Young people; Employment status; Political participation.
YOUTH, PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN HUNGARY 121
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
1.
Introduction
Since citizens’ political and social disengagement is strongly related to their
perception of inequality in society (Loveless, 2013: 471), and higher levels of
inequality reduce citizens’ support for democracy (Krieckhaus et al., 2014: 145) the
2008 economic crisis challenged social cohesion, inclusiveness, and investment in
national democracies. Economic insecurity has since risen for nearly all age groups,
but youth have been particularly hard hit. Young citizens1 are most likely to be faced
with unemployment and unstable career prospects, and thus feel alienated and
disenfranchised from society. In this context, it is important to understand how
unemployment and unstable working conditions are contributing to young peoples’
political participation.
Following the 2008 crisis, the use of flexible, fixed-term contracts and
alternative forms of temporary employment increased, leading to an increase in
earnings-related risk and job insecurity for young people at the start of their
professional careers. ‘Generation Y’ is distinct from its predecessors in terms of the
precariousness of their place in a society they struggle to enter (Bauman, 2012). This
cohort is likely to experience increasing cynicism about work and systemic uncertainty
about the future, with little to guide their expectations of what tomorrow will bring.
Although we have seen crowds of young people protesting that ‘their future has been
taken away’, we have little evidence about the effects of these forms of employment on
political participation.
Individual economic status directly impacts political engagement, with
economic status positively correlated to political engagement from political interest
to voting (Verba
et al.,
1979; Verba et al., 1995). Young Europeans’ political
responses to the economic crisis have neither been uniform nor overly promising for
the future of democratic Europe.
We investigate the nature and extent of youth employment conditions and
opportunities in Hungary, with a view to assessing the consequences of youth
unemployment and poor employment prospects on political participation and
engagement, and thus on the social cohesion and democratic legitimacy of Hungarian
society.
2.
Literature review
2.1.
Changing forms of political participation
Scientific discourse on the participation of young people has oscillated between
two extremes. Young people are often described as the apolitical harbingers of an
incipient ‘crisis of democracy’ (Bessant, 2004; Furlong and Cartmel, 2007).
Discussions revolve around declining political interest, falling participation, and low
turnout at elections in Europe. On the other hand, young people are also heralded as
innovators of politics, as creators of sophisticated new forms of participation,
1 Following the Eurostat system of categorization, young people are defined as being from 1529 years of
age.
122 PÉTER RÓBERT, DÁNIEL OROSS AND ANDREA SZA
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especially online (Coleman, 2006). It may well be the case that the upcoming
generation is simply more interested in inventing novel forms of political participation
(Phelps, 2004; 2012). The argument has been put forward that citizens today,
especially younger generations, seem to prefer to participate in the extra-parliamentary
realm.
The emergence of new forms of political participation presents a theoretical
challenge. Stolle and Hooghe (2011) argue that it might reduce age- and gender-based
inequality. Using the Political Action Survey, as well as the European Social Survey,
the authors observe that gender differences with non-institutionalized participation
have been substantially reduced, and in some cases even reversed, and that women
tend to be more active in this regard than men. Younger people also clearly have a
preference for non-institutionalized forms of participation. Based on data from the
ISSP survey, Marien, Hooghe and Quintelier (2010) found that non-institutionalized
forms of participation increase inequality in terms of education, but strongly reduce or
even reverse gender and age inequalities. As such, both institutionalized and non-
institutionalized forms of participation have specific (dis)advantages from the
perspective of preserving equal access to democratic decision-making procedures.
We expand the study of political participation to include not only traditional
but also non-traditional forms of political engagement and prospective alternatives.
Based on earlier findings of Oross and Szabó (2013; 2017), we differentiate three
participation categories. Since electoral participation (‘voted in last national election’)
is the most important form of political participation within the Hungarian context, we
distinguish it as the first form of political participation.
‘Traditional’ forms of political participation refer to participation in political
organizations (political parties, unions), as well as forms of participation related to
these organizations (such as campaigning, participation at meetings, wearing the
symbols of these organizations, etc.).
‘Direct’ forms of political participation are those that require personal
involvement but do not require long-term commitment on behalf of actors (e.g. direct
forms of protest such as sit-ins, blockades, and other expressive and symbolic acts).
Direct forms of political participation require few resources, are low risk and require
low levels of commitment. They include the signing of statements, petitions and
initiatives.
As for the link between employment status and political participation, the
literature (Lorenzini and Giugni, 2012: 333-335) focuses on the capabilities and
competencies useful for political participation that can be acquired in the workplace
through work-related experience (Brady, Verba and Schlozman, 1995; Pateman,
1970; Schur, 2003; Sobel, 1993). In this regard, we can distinguish between the
spillover model
and the
civic skills model
(Adman, 2008). The spillover model
assumes that participation in the workplace offers individuals opportunities to learn
how to participate and to develop roles related to social and political participation
(Pateman, 1970; Sobel, 1993). According to this model, ‘participation supports
participation’; that is, involvement and responsibility in the workplace impacts political
participation (Sobel, 1993). Moreover, participatory mechanisms at the workplace are
an opportunity to develop a sense of political efficacy (Carole Pateman cited in
Adman, 2008: 118). The civic skills approach argues that people participate when they
YOUTH, PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN HUNGARY 123
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
have resources (e.g. time, money, civic skills), when they have a psychological
predisposition towards engagement (e.g. an interest in politics) and when they are
recruited (e.g. by voluntary associations or individuals) (Brady, Verba and Schlozman,
1995: 271). Research into the political participation of unemployed youth found that
this cohort were more dissatisfied with politics (Bay and Blekesaune, 2002; Bynner
and Ashford, 1994). However, unemployed and employed youth participate in voting
to a similar extent (Banks and Ullah, 1987; Bynner and Ashford, 1994).
Current research on the topic (Lorenzini, 2013: 182) has pointed out that in
terms of the effects of unemployment on political participation, we cannot assume that
unemployment represents financial, social, and psychological deprivation for all
unemployed youth. It is also difficult to ascertain whether employed people are
different from unemployed people, ceteris paribus
(Schur, 2003). Moreover, other
studies have questioned the direction of the relationship between employment and
political participation, as well as the very existence of the relationship itself. Cohen and
Vigoda (1999), for example, found that political participation can explain attitudes and
behaviors in the workplace, reversing the relationship between the two variables. To
solve this puzzle, Adman (2008) tested the effect of work on political participation
using panel data. The effect found through a cross-sectional analyses does not hold
when one takes into account the temporal ordering of events (first being involved in a
specific workplace setting, then participating politically). In terms of new forms of
political participation, employment status has only a limited impact on political
participation, affecting only consumer activities (Lorenzini and Giugni, 2012).
Increasing social inequalities have mobilized young people, from Southern
Europe to Northern America. Both the ‘Indignados’ and the ‘The Occupy Wall
Street’ movement brought the problem of widening social inequality into razor-sharp
focus (Castaneda, 2012: 10; Hickel, 2012). Whereas there has been scholarly debate
about the specificities of these movements as political responses to the economic
crisis, few studies have analyzed youth political participation in relation to
employment status.
2.2.
Labor market flexibility and employment relations
This study brings together two fields of research: political participation mostly
investigated by political scientists, and employment relations mostly analyzed by
sociologists and economists. This requires greater elaboration of the independent
variables from the perspective of employment.
Employment relations are typically investigated at the individual (micro) level,
and are considered important features of social and political integration. Individual
employment relations are embedded into the organizational structure of the labor
market. While the labor market operates at a macro level, its consequences for
individuals (e.g. being employed or unemployed, working under more or less flexible
employment conditions) appear at the individual level. In this way, both macro
conditions and regulations create differences at the micro (individual) level.
Individuals in society are affected in an unequal way by (macro-level) organizational
and institutional arrangements, which make employment relations one dimension of
124 PÉTER RÓBERT, DÁNIEL OROSS AND ANDREA SZA
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
social stratification. This is not a new but a rather well established concept (Baron,
1984; Kerckhoff, 1995).
One main feature of these processes is the transformation of standard
employment relations into non-standard ones, increasing the flexibility of working
conditions. This transformation has been the subject of sociological and labor market
studies since the 1980s (Boyer, 1988), which expanded around the turn of the century
(Strath, 2000; Kalleberg, 2000). Authors claim that labor market flexibility is part of
the emergence of risk society, but the danger of such risks and precarious
employment, a typical outcome of labor market flexibility, differs for individuals.
Consequently, flexible labor conditions increase social inequality. This process has
been ongoing for a few decades and has shown how the risk of unemployment and
also the risk of being precariously employed is distributed unequally among
individuals, increasing polarization (Breen, 1997; Kalleberg, 2011). How social risks
arise, how labor market flexibility endangers social safety, and how social inequalities
consequently emerge is particularly evident in post-communist societies where full,
standard employment conditions disappeared for a significant proportion of the labor
force after the collapse of socialism (Cazes and Nesporova, 2003).
Although the direction of causality is frequently debated, this study claims
conceptually that:
1) employment relations measured here using the incidence of unemployment and
the features of precarious employment are distributed unequally among individuals;
2) unemployment and precarious employment weaken the social integration of
individuals (not investigated here);
3) unemployment and precarious employment have negative consequences on
behavior (e.g. political participation) and this latter relationship may be analyzed by
defining various forms of political participation, as outlined in the paper.
There are conceptual grounds for selecting indicators for employment relations
based on the literature. ‘Unemployment’ may not need much explanation in terms of
social and political (dis)integration, but see Gallie et. al (1994). Current
unemployment matters most, but earlier experiences with unemployment can also
have a detrimental impact. In terms of ‘precarious employment’, the form of any
contracts is a crucial indicator, as fixed-term contracts increase employment
uncertainty (Schömann et al., 1998). Standard employment refers to jobs with an
eight-hour daily work load. Part-time jobs typically used to be taken by women (who
could thus combine work and child care) but labor market flexibility has increased the
variety of working time arrangements for all employees, with attendant consequences
on social life (O’Really et al., 2000). Finally, research indicates that a low level of job
autonomy is also a characteristic feature of precarious employment (Kalleberg, 2011;
Letourneux, 1998).
YOUTH, PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN HUNGARY 125
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2.3.
Case selection
In this paper we focus on Hungary, which has struggled with youth
unemployment, and whose situation is typical of semi-peripheral EU countries.
1. After the regime change in 1990, more than one million people lost their
jobs. This caused significant, almost unsolvable problems in the labor market (Laky,
1996). By the end of the 1990s employment stabilized at a persistently low level
(Gazsó and Laki, 2004; Gazsó, Laki and Pitti, 2008) and was accompanied by a long-
term unemployment rate averaging six percent. Regarding their integration into the
labor market, four social groups were most affected: young people, people with a low
level of education, elderly employees, and Roma.
2. The global financial and economic crisis (2008-2009) exacerbated the
already fragile situation (Szabó, 2013). In terms of macro-economic performance,
Hungary fared worse than the EU28 average, but Hungary is not considered to be a
crisis country in the way that Italy, Spain, and Greece are. After the 2008 economic
crisis, youth unemployment remained ‘just below’ the EU28 average in Hungary2,
which is why it can be considered a typical, semi-peripheral EU country.
3. After the elections in 2010, the new government adopted a number of
measures that resulted in a substantial improvement in the employment statistics
(Messing, 2012). Early retirement was restricted, rules relating to disabled pensioners
were modified, and the government launched a public works program (Koltai and
Kulinyi, 2013). Despite the fact that the statistics had undoubtedly improved by 2013
in comparison with the EU (among 2064 year olds) the labor force participation rate
of Hungarians was still the fifth lowest (63.2 per cent; the lowest was in Greece at 53.2
per cent)3. The long-term (more than 1 year) unemployment rate was 50.4 percent,
3.7 percentage points worse than the 2012 figure published by the Hungarian Central
Statistical Office4. Those excluded from the labor market have huge difficulty in
finding their way back, since the average duration of unemployment rose from 17.6
months to 18.0 months in 2013. It is extremely problematic that the youngest segment
of potential employees (1524 years old) are faced with unfavorable employment and
unemployment conditions: their employment rate only reached 19.8 percent (and
unemployment rate 27.2 percent) (KSH, 2014).
4.
As for changes in participation trends among the whole population, the level
of participation in non-electoral forms of political participation compared to electoral
participation is still low; electoral participation is 2.5 to 3 times higher than the most
preferred other form of participation (Kern and Szabó, 2011: 22). The level of non-
electoral participation is low in Hungary and the difference between young people and
2 Youth unemployment data is from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development:
OECD (2015) Youth Unemployment Rate (Indicator). DOI: http://doi.org/10.1787/c3634df7-en
Accessed: 28-03-2017.
3 Eurostat (2014) Employment rate 19922013. Available at:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=1&pcode=tsdec420&lang
uage=en
4 KSH (2014) A KSH jelenti. Gazdaság és társadalom 2013. IIV. negyedév (The Central Statistical
Office Reports. Economy and Society 2013. I-IV. Quarters). Budapest: KSH.
126 PÉTER RÓBERT, DÁNIEL OROSS AND ANDREA SZA
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2004.
I–IV.
2005.
I–IV.
2006.
I–IV.
2007.
I–IV.
2008.
I–IV.
2009.
I–IV.
2010.
I–IV.
2011.
I–IV.
2012.
I–IV.
2013.
I–IV.
2014.
I–IV.
2015.
I–IV.
Employment rate Participation rate
adults in this regard is high because young Hungarians take advantage of very few
forms of non-electoral participation (Oross and Szabó, 2016). Unlike young people in
crisis countries, young Hungarians were not mobilized by recent movements that were
a political response to the economic crisis.
3.
Research questions
We seek to identify potential causal relationships between the increase in labor
market inequalities for youth and their political attitudes and choice of political
participation (e.g. expanding forms of both traditional and non-traditional forms of
political participation, as well as emerging alternatives). Beyond considering youth
unemployment we focus on the use of flexible, fixed-term contracts and alternative
forms of temporary employment because young people are typically employed in
these ways (Bertolini, 2012). Since there is little evidence about the impact of unstable
work conditions on political participation, we seek to reveal if young people employed
in flexible work participate less, or are rather more active in new forms of political
participation.
In light of the topic of this paper the relationship between labour market
inequalities and political participation the employment situation in the country is a
possible contextual effect, having an influence on activity and behaviour. Based on
official national statistics, Figure 1 provides information about the employment rate,
participation in the labour market, and unemployment in Hungary for the period
2004-2015. Figure 1 also shows that in Hungary participation in the labour market was
steady from 2004-2008 (employment rate of around 58 percent; unemployment rate
around eight per cent). The 2008 economic crisis had an immediate and negative
impact (employment rate 61 per cent; unemployment 10-13 per cent) that lasted until
2012/2013. Since 2013, due to the public employment program introduced by the
government in 2012, the trend has been towards a rise in employment and a decrease
in unemployment among all age groups.
Figure 1. Employment, Unemployment and Participation rates in Hungary (age groups 1564)
(2004–2015). Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office
YOUTH, PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN HUNGARY 127
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
4.
Hypotheses
1. 1a, Based on the civic skills approach we expect unemployed youth, all
other things being equal, to be less likely to participate in elections than employed
youth.
1b, Although young Hungarians have not been mobilized by recent
movements, we suppose that the rise in social inequality and lack of space in
institutional politics for their claims has increased the likelihood of traditional and
direct participation of unemployed young people compared to their employed peers.
2 2a, On the basis of the spillover model we assume that flexible, fixed-term
contracts and alternative forms of temporary employment generate less participation
in the workplace and offer fewer opportunities for learning how to participate.
Considering the civic skills approach we argue that young people with flexible, fixed-
term contracts have less resources with which to participate. We therefore expect
these young people to be less likely to participate than employed youth.
2b, Following the 2008 economic crisis, we may expect renewed interest in
political issues and a revival of political activism. This kind of ‘re-politicization’ should
be especially pronounced for young people with flexible, fixed-term contracts and
alternative forms of temporary employment as they have more civic skills and social
contacts than unemployed youth, can organize themselves, and are likely to be
affected strongly by the negative externalities of the crisis (e.g. uncertain future
prospects). In particular, we expect these young citizens to be active in direct forms of
political participation.
5.
Data and methods
In this paper we employ European Social Survey data from rounds 27. Thus,
our data cover roughly one decade from 2004-2014. Round 1 was omitted because
one of the predictor variables used in the analysis (job autonomy) was not available.
Data about Hungary from these six rounds were merged, leaving approximately
eleven thousand observations. A process of pooled data analysis was carried out to
allow the investigation of changes over time by taking the level of significance in
temporal variation into account. Design weights were employed for the data, as was a
process of age selection; only respondents aged 1565 were investigated.
It is also worth mentioning that the fieldwork for the Hungarian surveys did not
match perfectly the official timing of ESS data collection rounds; the Hungarian
survey was delayed three times in the period between 2004 and 2014. The exact
timing of collection of Hungarian data may be important as concerns interpreting and
understanding the results, particularly in light of the political events in the country
around the time of the survey period. These events involved elections for the national
or the European parliament, and other relevant political events that may have had an
impact on political activity. Table 1 provides a summary of the time period covered by
the Hungarian data from 2005-2015.
128 PÉTER RÓBERT, DÁNIEL OROSS AND ANDREA SZA
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Table 1. Timing of Hungarian data collection and important political events
Round
Year/Season
Election act(s)
Important political events
Round 2
2005 Spring
-
Round 3 2006 Fall
2006 Spring:
Parliamentary Elections
2006 Fall: Municipal
Elections
* Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány’s speech in
Balatonőszöd in May 20065
* Political instability
* Violent street demonstrations in Budapest in
October 20066
Round 4 2009 Spring
2009 Summer: European
Parliamentary Elections
* Economic crisis in Hungary
*Resignation of Prime Minister Ferenc
Gyurcsány
New Prime Minister
Round 5 2010 Fall
2010 Spring:
Parliamentary Elections
2010 Fall: Municipal
Elections
* New centre-right government with two-thirds
parliamentary majority (Prime Minister Viktor
Orbán)
* New Fundamental Law
Round 6 2012 Fall
* ‘One Million for Freedom of Press in
Hungary’ (Milla) demonstrations (Wilkin
Dencik Bognár, 2015)
* Pro-goverment ‘Peace March’ (Békemenet)
demonstrations7
Round 7 2015 Spring
2014 Spring:
Parliamentary Elections
2014 Spring: European
Parliamentary Elections
2014 Fall: Municipal
Elections
New two-thirds parliamentary majority for
centre-right FideszKDNP
Dependent variables
Turning to measurement, the main dependent variable is political participation.
We conceptually distinguish between three forms of participation, as outlined above
in the theoretical section; this distinction also appears when defining the variables.
5 See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5359546.stm
6 See : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6081974.stm
7 See http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-16669498
YOUTH, PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN HUNGARY 129
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Voting
is a dummy variable used to indicate whether (1) or not (0) a respondent
participated in the national parliamentary elections (for this variable, 18 is the lower
age limit, in line with the related Hungarian legislation).
Figure 2. Voted at last general elections (%).Source: ESS Round 2-7.
Beyond voting, we differentiate between
traditional political participation
and
direct political participation
.8 The first form of participation is based on four questions
from the ESS core questionnaire, coded as dummy variables:
- Contacted politician or government official in last 12 months
- Worked in political party or action group in last 12 months
- Worked in another organisation or association in last 12 months
- Worn or displayed campaign badge/sticker in last 12 months
The second form is based on 3 similar questions from the ESS core
questionnaire:
- Signed petition in last 12 months
- Taken part in lawful public demonstration in last 12 months
- Boycotted certain products in last 12 months
8 Different attempts at conceptualization have engendered an emerging methodological consensus
according to which research that focuses on explaining political participation should seek to identify and
cluster different forms of participation. “Traditional” forms of political participation include participation
in elections and in political organizations (political parties, unions), as well as forms of participation
related to these organizations (such as campaigning, participation at meetings, wearing the symbols of
these organizations, etc.). “Collective” or “direct” forms of political participation are those that require
personal involvement but do not require long-term commitment on behalf of actors (e.g. direct forms of
protest such as sit-ins, blockades, expressive and symbolic acts). Direct forms of political participation
require few resources, are low risk, and require low levels of commitment. These include the signing of
statements, petitions and initiatives.
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In principle, simple counting of these activities would have led to a scale of 0-4,
and 0-3, respectively. In practice as descriptive results will show , both measures
are very unequally distributed; the majority of respondents did not participate in any
traditional or direct political activities. As prediction using such dependent variables
would have been problematic, we constructed a simple typology to distinguish four
categories: passive (neither traditional nor direct participation); only traditional
participation; only direct participation; both forms.
Figure 3. Different forms of political participation (%).Source: ESS Round 2-7.
Control variables: Features of work
Regarding independent variables, the main focus of the study is the role of the
labour market position in determining political participation. As outlined in the
conceptual section, labour market integration is expected to affect political behaviour.
In this regard, unemployment is expected to have a negative impact on participation.
Unemployment was measured for the respondents’ current situation, as well as for the
past. The indicator of current unemployment is a dummy variable taking a value of 1
if the respondent is unemployed, otherwise (0). Past unemployment is a categorical
variable with three options: never unemployed in the past; unemployment of duration
longer than three months; unemployment of duration exceeding one year.9
Precarious employment is another element that influences political
participation negatively. Two indicators are used in this respect: limited or non-
existent work contract = 1 vs. unlimited work contract (0); part-time work: working less
than 35 hours per week = 1 vs. full-time work (0).
Finally, working conditions are examined using the concept of ‘work
autonomy’; the related scale is based on responses to the ESS core question: ‘how
9 Cutoff points for past unemployment (3 months, 12 months) are taken from the survey question; these
options were specified in the ESS questionnaire.
YOUTH, PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN HUNGARY 131
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much does/did the management at your work allow you to decide how your own daily
work is/was organised?’ (the original 010 scale was condensed to a four-item one).10
Job autonomy is defined as influence on policy decisions about organisational activity.
The 010 scale was converted to a four-item one).
Political variables
In the paper we take into account political attitudes as possible predictors of
behaviour. We apply two items11 from the ESS core questionnaire: satisfaction with
the government (0-10), and trust in parliament (010).
Socio-economic variables
We also include demographic control variables in the multivariate models.
Gender is coded as 1 for men and 0 for women. As mentioned before, we are
specifically interested in examining the association between political participation and
age, in particular in terms of cohort differences: namely, how the young generation
participates in politics compared to older individuals. Therefore, three age cohorts
were defined: 15/1829; 3050; 5165.
Level of education is another control variable with three categories: graduate,
secondary level, lower level of schooling. Place of residence distinguishes whether
respondents live in big city, a suburb, in a smaller town, or in a rural settlement
(village).
Finally, the respondent’s financial situation is also included in the analysis; we
use subjective household income from the ESS core questionnaire transformed into a
dummy variable where one category combines the options ‘living comfortably on
present income’ and ‘coping on present income’ (1) while the other category
combines the options ‘finding it difficult on present income’ and ‘finding it very
difficult on present income’ (0).
For the full list of variables used in the analysis, see Table 8 in the Appendix.
In the course of the analysis we applied bivariate and multivariate techniques.
Bivariate relationships examined include changes in political activities over time, and
differences by age group. The exact method of multivariate analysis was decide by the
form of the dependent variables. In the case of voting, we used binary logistic
regression to predict the impact of explanatory variables on the probability of voting at
general parliamentary elections. For these, we present the unstandardized regression
coefficients (B), the odds ratios (Exp(B)) and the level of significance. For the
combined typology of traditional and direct political participation, we predicted the
10 Job-related indicators (nature of work contract, working hours, autonomy) are obviously lacking here;
respondents actively employed (i.e. ‘currently unemployed’) were not asked about these features in the
survey.
11 First, we tested 4 political attitude variables (satisfaction with democracy, satisfaction with government,
trust in parliament, trust in politicians), but because of high correlation values (r>0.7) we decided to work
with fewer model variables. Following an anova test we selected only two variables (satisfaction with
government, and trust in parliament)
132 PÉTER RÓBERT, DÁNIEL OROSS AND ANDREA SZA
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
activity of respondents using multinomial logistic regression. Passivity (neither
traditional nor direct participation) was the reference status, and statistical coefficients
refer to the effect of the independent variables on either traditional or direct activity,
or on a combination of these (i.e. both). Similarly, we present the unstandardized
regression coefficients (B), the odds ratios (Exp(B)) and the level of significance
related to the three options for activity, contrasted with ‘passive’ status in terms of
political participation.
6.
Results
To control for changing trends in political participation, we first checked
whether claims about young peoples’ low level of electoral participation holds in our
sample (see Figure 4.).
Figure 4. Voted at last general elections, by age group (%).
Source: ESS Round 2-7. Pearson Chi-Square: 224,453; sig:0,000; Cramer’s V: 0,161
From a comparative perspective, electoral participation is not low in Hungary
(76 per cent claimed to have voted in the last national election). Although the level of
participation is not critically low, young Hungarians report to a lower level of electoral
participation than older cohorts.
In the course of the analysis we tested our hypotheses using two multivariate
models. In the first one we used binary logistic regression to investigate how the
independent variables influence electoral participation; a dummy dependent indicator.
The model contains all of the variables described in the methodology section, but we
present only the significant ones (p<0.05) in Table 2 below. The estimates in the table
control for (but do not display) the other independent variables.
YOUTH, PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN HUNGARY 133
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
Table 2. Selected results* from Binary Logistic Regression Model Voting.
Source: ESS Round 2-7. Dependent variable=voted (1/0); author’s calculation
* Estimates are also controlled for gender, flexibility of employment, previous unemployment.
B
Exp(B)
Sig.
Work features
-0.275
0.76
0.03
0.132
1.141
0.00
Political variables
0.044
1.044
0.018
0.102
1.108
0.00
Control variables
0.301
1.351
0.012
0.737
2.089
0.00
0.00
-0.688
0.503
0.00
-0.28
0.756
0.00
0.00
0.815
2.259
0.00
0.184
1.202
0.055
0.19
1.209
0.05
0.19
1.209
0.05
0.191
1.21
0.012
0.415
1.515
0.015
As we expected on the basis of the first hypothesis, current unemployment has
a negative impact on electoral participation since unemployed people are less likely to
participate in elections. However, precarious employment (limited or non-existent
work contract; part-time work i.e. working fewer than 35 hours per week) did not
influence electoral participation. The same also holds for previous unemployment.
As for the role of labour market position in determining electoral participation,
we found that working conditions, namely job autonomy, have the greatest positive
impact. It seems that people who have greater autonomy in organizing their everyday
work are more likely to participate in elections than others.
As for the control variables, ESS Round 3 (2006) and ESS Round 4 (2009) had
a positive influence on electoral participation compared to the earlier period of data
collection. Important events occurred from a political and economic perspective in
both years (see Table 1 and Figure 1) but in particular in 2009, when the economic
crisis hit Hungary, employment dropped, and unemployment increased. This was also
134 PÉTER RÓBERT, DÁNIEL OROSS AND ANDREA SZA
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
the year when Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, still an important figure in
Hungarian politics on the left, resigned. In fact, 2009 was the last year of the eight-
year-long incumbency of the socialist government, a distinct period preceding the
change of government in 2010. These political and economic events might explain
why the reported electoral participation of Hungarian citizens was higher compared to
2015.
From the demographic control variables, age affected electoral participation, as
postulated in our hypothesis. Compared to the 5165 year-old cohort, 15-29 year-olds
were less active in terms of electoral participation. Similarly negative effects on
electoral participation were identifiable in the case of members of the middle-aged
cohort, although the magnitude of this estimate is less than that of the youngest
cohort. The basic indication is that participation in national parliamentary elections
increases with age.
Last but not least, electoral participation was mostly strongly influenced by level
of education. More highly educated individuals were more likely to vote (graduates
were 2.25 times more likely to participate in elections than non-graduates). We also
assume that level of education has an indirect effect on work autonomy, since the
higher the level of education of a citizen, the greater the likelihood that they have
freedom to organize their everyday working routine. We return to this point in the
discussion. The model also shows that the more positively the respondent subjectively
evaluated their income situation, the greater the probability of voting.
In order to expand on the study of political participation, we investigated not
only electoral participation but also traditional and direct forms of political
engagement (see Figure 5.)
Figure 5. Different forms of political participation, by age group (%).
YOUTH, PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN HUNGARY 135
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
Source: ESS Round 2-7. Pearson Chi-Square: 71,593; sig:0,000; Cramer’s V: 0,062
We identified a very high proportion of passive citizens (81 per cent) within the
whole population, finding the highest fraction of passive citizens among young people
(87 per cent). It transpires that this group is the least active cohort in terms of all forms
of political participation, but especially in traditional forms of political participation.
For the second multivariate model we used multinomial logistic regression to
investigate the influence of independent variables on traditional and direct political
participation. In this model, the dependent variable is a nominal one with four
categories (0 refers to passive citizens, whereas activity in traditional, direct and both
forms of political participation are also distinguished). The model examines the
impact of the independent variables on each category of political activities separately,
while passive respondents (the majority of the sample) are the reference category.
Results are presented in Table 3. Similarly to the previous model, only the significant
coefficients (p<0.05) are shown in the table, but the other independent variables are
controlled. Another issue to take into account when examining the findings in Table 3
is that most of the predictor variables are also categorical. Consequently, effects for
passive respondents in general, and the concrete reference category for the specific
independent variables overlap.
As Table 3 indicates, traditional and direct forms of political participation are
affected by more issues than electoral participation is. This is a general finding:
regarding the role of labour market position we find four labour market indicators that
affect political participation.
Unemployment has a significant impact, but seems to have different effects on
other forms of participation than electoral participation. The analysis revealed an
interesting correlation between previous unemployment and political participation.
Not having a job for a period of between three months and one year increased the
likelihood of both traditional and direct participation. Current unemployment,
however, was not a significant predictor of political participation. These results are not
in line with assumptions, and we return to them in the discussion.
Similarly to the case of electoral participation, work autonomy has a positive
impact on both traditional and cumulative political participation.
Furthermore, job characteristics also play a role, according to this model.
Respondents who have limited working contracts are more likely to take part in
traditional forms of political activity (Exp(B)=1.423), and those who work fewer than
35 hours per week are also more likely to participate in direct forms of political
activity.
Table 3. Selected results from Multinomial Logistic Regression Political participation
typology. Source: ESS Round 2-7. Dependent variable=political participation, reference =
passive, author’s calculation
Political participation typology (REF: passive)
B
Exp(B)
Sig.
Work features
Limited work contract (=1 / 0)
136 PÉTER RÓBERT, DÁNIEL OROSS AND ANDREA SZA
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
Political participation typology (REF: passive)
B
Exp(B)
Sig.
Only traditional
0.353
1.423
0.007
Unemployed (3 months <)
Both traditional and direct
0.479
1.615
0.004
Work hours < 35
Only direct
0.376
1.457
0.045
Work autonomy (4 point scale)
Only traditional
0.301
1.352
0.000
Both traditional and direct
0.302
1.353
0.000
Political variables
Satisfaction with government (010)
Only traditional
0.051
1.052
0.04
Control variables
Essround (ref: 7. 2015 Spring)
Only traditional
ESS 3 (2006 Fall)
0.354
1.425
0.033
ESS 6 (2012 Fall)
-0.618
0.539
0.001
Only direct
ESS 4 (2009 Spring)
0.652
1.919
0.000
ESS 6 (2012 Fall)
-0.427
0.652
0.034
Both traditional and direct
ESS 3 (2006 Fall)
0.771
2.162
0.002
Male (REF: Female)
Only traditional
0.288
1.334
0.004
Both traditional and direct
0.28
1.323
0.045
Age groups (REF: 5165)
Young (1529)
Only traditional
-0.532
0.588
0.001
Middle aged (3050)
Only direct
0.249
1.283
0.054
Education (ref: lower)
Graduated
Only traditional
0.544
1.724
0.003
Only direct
1.426
4.164
0.000
Both traditional and direct
1.311
3.711
0.000
Secondary school
YOUTH, PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN HUNGARY 137
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
Political participation typology (REF: passive)
B
Exp(B)
Sig.
Only direct
1.106
3.021
0.000
Region (REF: big city)
Rural (village)
Only traditional
0.638
1.892
0.000
Only direct
-0.949
0.387
0.000
Town
Only traditional
0.301
1.352
0.028
Subjective income (1=living well / 0)
Both traditional and direct
-0.328
0.72
0.031
The model shows quite substantial variation in time: ESS Round 3 (2006 Fall),
ESS Round 4 (2009 Spring) and ESS Round 6 (2012 Fall) appear to differ significantly
from the reference period (ESS Round 7, 2005 Spring) with respect to their influence
on political participation. Whereas in earlier years turbulent changes in Hungarian
economics and politics occurred, as shown in Table 1 and Figure 1, the estimates
reveal the obviously positive impact (i.e. greater probability) of political participation
in the specified years. The magnitude of the effect is particularly large for 2009 in the
case of direct activity (Exp(B)=1.919). The most recent year (2012), however, shows a
reduction in traditional and direct form of political action i.e. the probability of such
activities is significantly lower than in the year 2015. We elaborate on this further in
the discussion part of the paper.
From the control variables, there is a positive effect for men in contrast to
women. Age affects traditional participation (in line with our hypothesis), since being
in the 15-29 year-old cohort lessens the likelihood of being involved in traditional
political activities. However, the model does not show the positive impact of age on
direct political participation (in terms of the youngest cohort; 15-29 years old), in
contrast to popular claims. We return to this issue in the discussion.
Level of education has a positive impact on direct forms of political
participation: graduates are more likely (Exp(B)= 4.164) to participate. This
demonstrates the cultural component of direct participation; namely, that direct
democratic participation has to be learned, as happens among educated citizens.
The effects of regional variation are quite conventional. Traditional forms of
political activity are more typical of people who live in villages than those who live in
cities, while the same people participate significantly less in direct action. Finally, more
positive subjective appraisal of income is negatively correlated to traditional and direct
political participation.
7.
Discussion
Our analysis investigated the relationship between labour market inequalities
and political participation. In particular, we focused on the role of unemployment and
precarious employment. Unemployment was measured using indicators that referred
138 PÉTER RÓBERT, DÁNIEL OROSS AND ANDREA SZA
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
to the current situation and to past experience; work flexibility was approached using
two indicators: ‘bad’ (=non-permanent) work contract, and part-time job. For political
participation, we distinguished between voting, traditional forms of participation, and
direct forms of participation. Based on the literature, we tested concrete hypotheses
about how labour market inequalities could influence political participation.
One further goal of the analysis was to elaborate differences according to age
cohort to enable us to discuss the political activity of young individuals (below 29 years
of age) in Hungary. Finally, given that we analysed only one country, we intended to
link the findings about Hungary to the broader political and economic context of
political participation our data cover about 10 years from 2005-2015. This is not a
long period, but involved quite significant changes. On the one hand, the economic
crisis hit Hungary during these years this is an obvious example of a wider
phenomenon. On the other hand, from the perspective of Hungarian politics, this 10-
year period involved the fall of the socialist government and the rise of a more
populist, centre-right government. Some final additional information about the factors
that influence political participation in Hungary were derived from the control
variables in particular, education.
7.1.
Labour market situation
We begin with the ‘easy part’ of this discussion: job autonomy. This indicator
has a strong positive impact on basically all forms of political participation. This result
is in line with the theory and findings of earlier studies; namely, that more involvement
and responsibility in the workplace increase political participation. Indeed, it also
seems to hold true for Hungary that the mechanisms in effect in the workplace
increase political efficacy. It is even more important that this result remains valid even
when education is controlled for. Obviously, more educated respondents have more
job autonomy, but more autonomy at the workplace also positively affects political
participation.
Turning to the results the reasons for which are more complex to interpret, it is
apparent that the emerging picture of the impact of the other labour market indicators
(unemployment, work flexibility) on political participation is not straightforward. We
believe that the seemingly contradictory results stem at least partly from the fact
that the models include important control variables such as age and education. Thus,
it makes sense to investigate the bivariate relationship between these work indicators
and political participation. These results are presented in Table 4.
YOUTH, PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN HUNGARY 139
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
Table 4. Bivariate results*.
Source: ESS Round 2-7. *Uncontrolled effects of descriptive statistics.
Work features
Voting
Political participation
typology
currently unemployed (yes)
significantly less
insignificant
unemployment in the past:
(3 month<1 year<)
significantly less significantly more
work contract (limited)
significantly less
significantly less direct but more
traditional
Work hours (> 35 hours)
insignificant
significantly more
Table 4 provides a more transparent picture, at least in relation to voting at
parliamentary elections, as no negative associations are identifiable (or no significant
ones in the case of part-time work). This is in line with our assumptions.
Unfortunately, this is not the case for the other forms of political participation.
Regarding unemployment, the results of bivariate and multivariate analysis are the
same: only past unemployment experience matters, and this increases political
participation. Having a limited work contract cannot be correlated with support for
traditional activities but is negatively correlated to direct participation. Finally, the
variable for working hours also confutes the expected negative relationship.
At this point we can offer only a limited explanation for these results for
political participation. One explanation is that citizens simply have more free time
when they are unemployed or are working only part-time. Another explanation is that
the findings regarding flexible work mask an indirect cohort effect namely, that it is
primarily young people who are faced with precarious working conditions. Indeed,
working fewer than 35 hours per week or having a job with a fixed-term contract (or
no contract) strongly characterizes the youngest cohort (aged 15-29).12 Multivariate
analysis also reveals no positive effect on the young cohort for direct participation.
This may be because the effect of this association is incorporated into the indicator for
flexible working conditions.
A rigorous summary of the results of our direct work-related hypotheses is
provided in Table 5. However, we should underline the fact that this should not be
the last word in terms of the analysis of the relationship between labour market
inequalities and political participation in Hungary.
12 The means of the young cohort for precarious employment were one and a half time greater than the
sample means.
140 PÉTER RÓBERT, DÁNIEL OROSS AND ANDREA SZA
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
Table 5. Results of hypotheses.
H1 a.
verified
H1 b.
rather verified
H2 a.
weakly verified
H2 b.
unverified
7.2. Other important findings
Political activity increases with age, and this observation probably holds for
voting. However, for other political activities (particularly direct ones as mentioned
above) labour market variables can be used to characterise the age cohorts. Although
further observations could have been made using the dataset, we limit the analysis to
these cohort differences only.
The research did not attempt a comparative chronological analysis, but
assumed that changes over time were stable. However, there is evidence for the
influence of the political and economic context on political participation. This
becomes obvious when we look at the positive impact of the dummy year 2009. The
negative impact of year 2012 (in contrast to 2015) is also understandable. Table 1
refers to the so-called
Milla
and
Békemenet
demonstrations in Hungary that occurred
during this year. At first sight, the significant negative effect on participation during this
year appears to be strange. However, only the
Milla
demonstrations were real
grassroots events directed against the government (the
Békemenet
‘Peace March’
demonstrations were organised
by
the government). We suggest that many
respondents discounted these events as forms of political participation, although we
have no evidence for this proposition. ‘Cheering’ for the government may not be
considered political participation in the same way that protest action that expresses
disagreement is. For many people, demonstration implies protest. However, this issue
requires further perhaps qualitative investigation.
Finally, we underline the very strong impact of education. From the perspective
of political socialisation, this is not surprising. Additionally, one should not forget that
the young cohort includes a greater proportion of more educated respondents. There
has been a huge expansion of education in Hungary (particularly at the tertiary level)
which means that the pool of graduates and the cohort of younger respondents (below
29 years of age) overlap. This is one more argument to consider when looking at the
results of the multivariate analysis.
This paper is intended to fill a gap in the literature. Studies about the
determinants of political participation that go beyond the usual political factors such as
being interested in politics, and being (dis)satisfied with current political situation, are
largely lacking in the post-communist context. As a first step we examined the
Hungarian population in this regard. Although we did not attempt a comparative
analysis, ESS data would definitely permit the expansion of this analysis to include
other post-communist countries one suggestion for further research.
YOUTH, PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN HUNGARY 141
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
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YOUTH, PRECARIOUS EMPLOYMENT AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN HUNGARY 145
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
Appendix
Table A1. List of variables in the analysis
Variable
Contents
Comments
Dependent variables
traditional political
participation index
Consists of the following variables:
1. Worked in political party or
action group - last 12 months;
2. Worked in another organization
or association - last 12 months;
3. Worn or displayed campaign
badge/sticker - last 12 months,
4. Contacted politician or
government official -
last 12
months;
(values: 04, recoded 01)
Index parameter: Cronbach`s alpha .565.
direct political
participation index
1. Signed petition - last 12 months;
2. Taken part in lawful public
demonstration - last 12 months;
3 Boycotted certain products - last
12 months.
(values: 03, recoded 01)
Index parameter: Cronbach`s alpha .556.
voted Voted last national election
dummy variable:
1=voted; 0=not.
Work features
Currently
unemployed Main activity, last 7 days.
dummy variable:
unemployed=1;
employed=0.
Previous
unemployment
Ever unemployed and seeking
work for a period of more than
three months
categorical variable:
never unemployed in the past
unemployment with duration longer than
3 months; unemployment with duration
longer than 1 year
Work autonomy
How much does/did the
management at your work allow
you to decide how your own daily
work is/was organised?
scale variable:
The 010 scale has been converted in to a
4 point one.
Job autonomy
Allowed to influence policy
decisions about activities of
organisation
scale variable:
The 010 scale has been converted in to a
4 point one.
Limited work
contract (flexibility)
Employment contract unlimited or
of limited duration
dummy variable:
limited or non-existent work contract = 1
unlimited work contract=0
Work hours
Total hours normally worked per
week in main job, overtime
included
dummy variable:
working fewer than 35 hours per week =1
full-time work=0.
Control variables
Essround 1–7
ESS1.; 2. ESS2; 3 ESS3; ESS4;
ESS5; ESS6; ESS7
dummy variables
age group
young:1529;middle-age:3050;
older: 5164
categorical variable
education
(graduate: name of
variable in the table)
(secondary school:
name of variable in
If respondent has university
diploma or not =graduate;
If respondent has higher level of
education than elementary level or
not=secondary school.
dummy variables: graduate: 1=has, 0=not;
secondary school 1= has, 0=not
146 PÉTER RÓBERT, DÁNIEL OROSS AND ANDREA SZA
INTERSECTIONS. EEJSP, 3 (1): 120-146.
Variable
Contents
Comments
the table)
region rural (village) and town
categorical variable:
1 village; 2 town; 3. suburbs ; 4 big city
subjective income Feeling about household income
dummy variable:
living well=1.
gender
dummy variable:
1=male, 0=female
Political variables
satisfaction with
government
How satisfied with national
government.
scale variable: (0–10)
trust in parliament
Trust in country's parliament
scale variable: (010)
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