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The Prevalence of False Allegations of Rape in the United States from
2006-2010
André De Zutter1,2*, Robert Horselenberg2 and Peter J van Koppen1
1Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, VU University Amsterdam, Netherlands
2Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Maastricht University, Netherlands
*Corresponding author: André De Zutter, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Faculty of Law, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV
Amsterdam, Netherlands, Tel: 0031654951216; E-mail: a.w.e.dezutter@vu.nl
Received date: February 10, 2017; Accepted date: March 15, 2017; Published date: March 20, 2017
Copyright: © 2017 De Zutter A, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted
use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Abstract
False allegations constitute a public problem since they result in a waste of time spent by the police and justice
departments, and may cause public and individual harm. A prevalence study was conducted to obtain recent and
valid figures of the prevalence of unfounded allegations of rape and unfounded allegations of other crimes. The most
recent published prevalence figures on false allegations in the U. S. are from 1992. At the time cases were cleared
by labeling cases as unfounded crimes. Since then guidelines to label a case as unfounded have become more
strict. To test whether the new guidelines issued by the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program of the Federal
Bureau of Investigations (FBI) were followed we compared the current results with the prevalence rate of false and
baseless allegations of rape before the guidelines were issued. Over a five-year period, from 2006 until 2010, the
prevalence of false and baseless allegations of offences in the U. S. was studied. We found that the new guidelines
were followed by law enforcement agencies. We performed a Kruskal Wallis Non Parametric Chi Square test of
Goodness-of-fit on the proportions of false and baseless allegations to test whether the proportions were equal for
all offence types. False and baseless allegations were not equally distributed across offence types X2 (7,
N=8000)=120.19, p<0.0001. The post hoc test revealed significant differences with the group average of 1.16% for
false and baseless allegations of murder X2 (1, N=1000)=39.94, p<0.0001, false and baseless allegations of rape X2
(1, N=1000)=171.94, p<0.0001, and false and baseless allegations of robbery X2 (1, N=1000)=187.78, p<0.0001.
Approximately 5% of the allegations of rape were deemed false or baseless. That was at least five times higher than
for most other offence types.
Keywords: Crime; Allegations; True; False; Rape; FBI; Unfounded
e Prevalence of False Allegations
Not all allegations of crimes are truthful. Sometimes people who
present themselves as victims make false claims of victimization. A
false allegation is dened as an allegation of a crime led by a
complainant to the police while in reality no crime has occurred, the
complainant is not a victim of the alleged crime.
False allegations constitute a public problem since they result in a
waste of time spent by the police and justice departments, and may
cause public and individual harm. It seems imperative to know the
prevalence of a problem in order to contain or solve the problem. In
other words, the prevalence is a prerequisite to outline an eective
policy to eliminate false allegations as much as possible.
False allegations of rape, in contrast with other oence types,
received a lot of attention from scholars. ere is a heated debate about
false allegations of rape with extreme claims at both ends. Brownmiller
[1] claims that almost all allegations are true, and Kanin [2] that all
allegations are false.
Whereas Greer [3] claims Brownmiller’s false rape gure is untrue
since this gure was not based on scientic research, Kanin’s gure has
not been replicated either, and will probably be a consequence of
methodological aws.
e Prevalence of False Allegations of Rape
An overview of studies on the prevalence of false allegations of rape
in the U.S. and other countries was published by Rumney [4]. He
reviewed a total of 20 studies, and reported the prevalence rates the
researchers found in the study. He did not include the 2% gure
reported by Brownmiller [1], but included another prevalence rate of
2% that was reported by Katz and Mazur [5]. It was based on the
research conducted by Hursch and Selkin [6] who classied an
allegation as false when the complainant admitted that the allegation
was indeed false. e researchers who conducted the other studies
reported prevalence rates varying from 3 to 90%.
e large variation of prevalence rates reported by Rumney [4] is
due to methodological dierences. Many studies employed unreliable
and invalid methods of data gathering (e.g., using vague denitions,
using unreliable and invalid criteria, relying on police classication [7].
Rumney [4] concluded that because of methodological problems it is
impossible to use the studies that were reviewed to estimate the true
prevalence rate of false allegations of rape. e controversy concerning
the prevalence of false allegations persists [8-10].
Outdated Figures
Recent gures on the prevalence of false allegations of rape are
absent. Four studies on the prevalence of false allegations in general
were published in the 21st century [11-14]. e joint inspection of Her
Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) and her Majesty’s
Journal of Forensic Psychology De Zutter et al., J Foren Psy 2017, 2:2
DOI: 10.4172/2475-319X.1000119
Research Article OMICS International
J Foren Psy, an open access journal
ISSN:2475-319X
Volume 2 • Issue 2 • 1000119
Crown Prosecution Service Inspectorate (HMCPSI) into the
investigation and prosecution of rape oences in England and Wales
deemed that 164 allegations out of 1,379 were false allegations of rape
(11.8%; [11]). In the study conducted by Lea et al. [14] no clear
statistics were reported. But, based on the information provided by the
researchers we calculated that 38 out of 379 (10%) allegations of rape
were considered to be false. Nineteen (5%) allegations were considered
to be false because the complainants had retracted the allegation, and
had admitted that the allegation was false. e other 19 (5%)
allegations were considered to be false because police ocers said that
the allegations were false. Jordan [12] reported that 68 out of 164
(41.5%) allegations were false. irteen allegations were considered to
be false because the complainants had retracted the allegation, and had
admitted that the allegation was false. Fiy-ve allegations were false
according to police ocers; 26 allegations were believed to be false by
police ocers, and were retracted by the complainants, and the
remaining 29 were classied as false allegations based on the police
investigation. Kelly et al. [13] found that 216 out of 2643 (8%)
allegations of rape were classied as false allegations. In 120 out of the
216 false allegations an explanation of the reason for classifying the
allegation as false was given. In 53 cases according to the police ocers
the complainants had retracted the allegation, and had admitted that
the allegation was false. In 28 cases the complainant had retracted the
allegation. In three cases the complainant refused to cooperate with the
police. e remaining 56 allegations were classied as false based on
the police investigation.
More recent gures on the prevalence of false allegations of rape are
lacking, because although the studies were published in the 21st
century, the data gathering process was conducted in the 20th century
for three out of four studies [11-14] gathered the data more than ten
years ago. e most recent data in the study were from 2002. As far as
gures go for the U.S., they refer to data reported in 1992 [15].
Dershowitz [15] reported based on gures provided by the Uniform
Crime Reporting (UCR) Program of the Federal Bureau of
Investigations (FBI) that in the U.S. 8% of all allegations of rape were
unfounded. Since then guidelines of law enforcement agencies in the
U.S. to collect and label data have changed. Due to the changes it is to
be expected that recent gures are more valid.
e Unfound Category and the New Policy
False allegations are categorized by law enforcement agencies in the
U.S. as unfounded crimes. In 1992 the unfounded crime category
comprised more than false allegations alone, and was sometimes used
to clear out crimes [16]. If an oence was classied as unfounded it was
not counted as an unsolved crime. Since then the guidelines have
changed, and are more strict to avoid that true allegations are
misclassied as false.
e new guidelines of the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR)
Program of the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) and the
International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP) to unfound
allegations of rape are the same, it is, therefore, redundant to cite them
both. e UCR guidelines of the FBI state that a law enforcement
agency in the U.S. has to establish through investigation that the
reported rape did not occur in order to deem an allegation unfounded
[17,18].
Uncertainty of how strict and to what extent the new guidelines are
followed by law enforcement agencies will never be fully dispelled. e
new guidelines, however, can be expected to have led to more valid
gures on the prevalence of false allegations of rape. A study by Spohn
et al. [19] does not seem to reject the validity of this hypothesis.
Spohn et al. [19] studied a random sample of 401 allegations of
sexual assaults at the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) that were
led in 2008, to test whether the guidelines of the FBI and IACP to
unfound cases are followed by police ocers. e researchers
concluded that in 2.4% of all allegations of sexual assault that were
classied by LAPD ocers as unfounded evidence existed that a crime
did occur. In 9.9% of unfounded allegations Spohn et al. [19]
concluded that there was evidence that complainants lacked interest to
pursue the case or were motivated by fear or pressure to stop pursuing
the case. us, a total of 12.3% of all allegations were deemed to be
misclassied by the LAPD. Spohn et al. [19] wrote “One conclusion
that can be drawn from these data is that the LAPD is clearing sexual
assault cases as unfounded appropriately most, but not all, of the time”
(p: 173).
e unfounded category, however, is a broader category than false
allegations alone, it also consists of baseless cases. A baseless case is a
case that does not meet the legal criteria for the crime [9]. us, also if
the classication process is awless then some proportion of cases
would still not be false allegations in the sense that the complainant
deliberately tried to mislead everyone.
In the study by Spohn et al. [19] ve cases, 6.2% of all unfounded
cases, that were correctly classied as unfounded by the LAPD were
labeled by the rearchers as baseless allegations. If the LAPD, which is
one of the largest police departments in the U.S., is representative for
law enforcement agencies in the U.S. then recent gures from the UCR
could help to resolve the heated debate on prevalence of false and
baseless rape allegations in the U.S.
We compare the rate of false and baseless rape allegations to false
and baseless allegations for any number of other crimes to test the
hypothesis that false and baseless allegations of rape are more
prevalent than false and baseless allegations of crimes in general.
Method
We received the raw crime statistics of the U.S. from the UCR of the
FBI. at included the master les from 1960 until 2010. e les
contained raw data from every law enforcement agency in the U.S.
[20]. We extracted the data from the les, and imported the data in
SPSS. Our sample consisted of a recent ve-year period, from
2006-2010. We chose a recent time period to make sure we obtained
gures of a time period when the new guidelines applied, and were
implemented for some time. A ve year period was chosen to increase
the reliability of the gures.
Procedure
We divided the number of crimes into dierent categories. e
category of unfounded cases (i.e., false and baseless allegations), of
actual cases (i.e., probable true allegations), and of cases cleared by
arrest. We chose the most typical crimes for comparison: Rape Total,
Rape by force, Murder, Manslaughter, Robbery, Assault, Burglary,
e, and Larceny (Table 1). e Total crime category, however,
includes all types of crimes within this time frame. We also compared
the unfounded category with the actual oences category (Table 2).
Citation: De Zutter A, Horselenberg R, van Koppen PJ (2017) The Prevalence of False Allegations of Rape in the United States from 2006-2010.
J Foren Psy 2: 119. doi:10.4172/2475-319X.1000119
Page 2 of 5
J Foren Psy, an open access journal
ISSN:2475-319X
Volume 2 • Issue 2 • 1000119
Year Offences
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Un-
found
ed
Actual Cleared
by arrest
Un-
found
ed
Actual Cleared
by arrest
Un-
found
ed
Actual Cleared
by arrest
Un-
found
ed
Actual Cleared
by arrest
Un-
found
ed
Actual Cleared
by arrest
Murder 546 16,822 9,186 531 16,764 9,250 538 16,056 9,381 550 15,166 8,949 543 14,577 8,418
Manslau
ghter
6 621 480 27 818 523 9 728 502 6 657 478 3 618 438
Rape
Total
4,959 85,455 33,674 5,108 83,080 32,096 5,102 82,256 32,732 4,915 82,838 32,650 4,400 83,218 31,213
Rape by
Force
4,412 76,060 29,379 4,555 74,832 28,108 4,617 74,555 29,054 4,462 75,302 29,214 4,020 73,129 27,952
Robbery 374 6,662 2,668 412 6,369 2,613 386 6,057 2,397 345 5,521 2,274 328 5,471 2,131
Assault 3,951 4,39,5
71
98,048 4,095 4,38,7
77
1,00,902 4,275 4,36,3
63
1,04,232 4,162 4,03,8
74
1,00,083 3,411 3,64,7
99
90,455
Burglary 32,749 36,91,
442
19,61,253 33,888 37,41,
293
19,53,323 33,388 36,99,
013
19,65,809 33,960 36,75,
740
19,63,402 34,267 36,36,
040
19,44,704
Theft 36,968 21,09,
095
2,49,573 35,835 21,09,
687
2,45,535 33,464 21,57,
749
2,56,282 28,016 21,45,
360
2,48,114 26,296 21,20,
509
2,44,596
Larceny 48,299 61,77,
523
10,26,560 48,515 61,59,
542
10,89,339 47,638 61,80,
124
11,81,906 47,888 59,98,
729
12,11,145 45,325 58,99,
028
11,73,491
Crimes
Total
1,55,0
60
1,27,1
4,775
34,99,118 1,55,3
23
1,26,9
9,798
35,38,888 1,50,2
34
1,26,6
6,246
36,39,519 1,41,4
05
1,22,4
8,083
36,33,991 1,33,6
77
1,21,3
9,746
35,62,974
Note: The figures are the absolute number of offences per category for the U.S. as a whole per year.
Table 1: Crime statistics of the Uniform Crime Reporting program of the Federal Bureau of Investigations.
Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 All years
Crimes total 1.2 1.21 1.17 1.14 1.09 1.16
Murder 3.14 3.07 3.24 3.5 3.59 3.3
Manslaughter 0.96 3.2 1.22 0.9 0.48 1.35
Robbery 5.32 6.08 5.99 5.88 5.66 5.78
Assault 0.89 0.92 0.97 1.02 0.93 0.95
Burglary 0.88 0.9 0.89 0.92 0.93 0.9
Theft 1.72 1.67 1.53 1.29 1.22 1.49
Larceny 0.78 0.78 0.76 0.79 0.76 0.78
Rape total 5.48 5.79 5.84 5.6 5.02 5.55
Rape by force 5.48 5.74 5.83 5.59 5.21 5.57
Note: Proportion of unfounded crimes, false and baseless allegations, in percentages.
Table 2: Unfounded crimes as percentage of all crimes in each category, nationwide in the USA.
Statistical Analyses
We rst performed a Kruskal Wallis Non Parametric Chi Square test
of Goodness-of-t on the proportions of false and baseless allegations
of rape to test whether the proportions were equal for 2006-2010 and
1992. If the new guidelines of the FBI were followed by law
enforcement agencies in the U.S., then a signicant drop in the
proportion of false and baseless allegations of rape was to be expected.
Citation: De Zutter A, Horselenberg R, van Koppen PJ (2017) The Prevalence of False Allegations of Rape in the United States from 2006-2010.
J Foren Psy 2: 119. doi:10.4172/2475-319X.1000119
Page 3 of 5
J Foren Psy, an open access journal
ISSN:2475-319X
Volume 2 • Issue 2 • 1000119
We performed a Kruskal Wallis Non Parametric Chi Square test of
Goodness-of-t on the proportions of false and baseless allegations to
test whether the proportions were equal for all oence types. If a
signicant result was obtained a post hoc test was performed to see
which proportion of false and baseless allegations diered signicantly
with the other proportions. A Non Parametric Chi Square test was
performed with an expected value of 98.84% true allegations, and
1.16% false and baseless allegations, since the overall average
proportion of false and baseless allegations for all oence types and all
years combined was 1.16% (Table 2).
Results
False and baseless allegations of rape were not equally distributed
for the period 2006-2010 as compared to the gures of 1992, X2 (1,
N=2000)=4.54, p=0.033. False and baseless allegations were not equally
distributed across oence types X2 (7, N=8000)=120.19, p<0.0001. e
post hoc test revealed signicant dierences with the average of 1.16%,
SD=0.04 for false and baseless allegations of murder M=3.30, SD=0.20,
X2 (1, N=1000)=39.94, p<0.0001, false and baseless allegations of rape
M=5.55, SD=0.29, X2 (1, N=1000)=171.94, p<0.0001, and false and
baseless allegations of robbery M=5.78, SD=0.27, X2 (1,
N=1000)=187.78, p<0.0001. ere were no dierences between the
average of 1.16% for all allegations combined, and false and baseless
allegations of assault M=0.95, SD=0.05, X2 (1, N=1000)=0.22, p=0.64,
of larceny M=0.78, SD=0.01, X2 (1, N=1000)=0.22, p=0.64, of the
M=1.49, SD=0.20, X2 (1, N=1000)=0.59, p=0.44, of burglary M=0.90,
SD=0.05, X2 (1, N=1000)=0.59, p=0.44, and of manslaughter M=1.35,
SD=0.96, X2 (1, N=1000)=1.01, p=0.32.
In the years 2006-2010 all law enforcement agencies combined
reported to the UCR of the FBI that yearly between 4,400 and 5,100
allegations of rape were false and baseless allegations, while 82,000 to
85,000 that are considered to be true allegations (Table 1) [20]. False
and baseless allegations of rape constitute about 5% of all rape
allegations; it is at least ve times the proportion of some other crimes.
For instance, unfounded the, assault, and fraud allegations constitute
approximately 1% of all allegations of the, assault or fraud. e only
other crime type with comparable rates of false and baseless allegations
was robbery (Table 2) [20].
Discussion
General discussion
e new guidelines issued by the FBI seem to have been
implemented by law enforcement agencies in the USA signicant drop
in the proportion of false and baseless allegations of rape was observed
since the new guidelines were issued. Since the new guidelines are
more stringent, a drop was to be expected when these guidelines were
followed. Under the new guidelines law enforcement agencies can no
longer use the label as a dustbin for unwanted allegations of rape or to
clear crimes. ere was some preliminary evidence that the guidelines
were already followed by one of the largest police departments in the
U.S., the LAPD [19]. Based on the current results it seems that we can
extend this assertian to all law enforcement agencies in the U.S. that
contributed to the UCR data. Our 5% gure is also consistent with
ndings of other researchers in the eld of allegations of rape.
Ferguson and Malou [21] found a rate of 5% conrmed false
allegations in their meta-analysis on seven studies on the prevalence of
false allegations.
False allegations of rape are a problem for all parties involved. In
cases where no one is accused directly, no innocent suspects are
targeted; false allegations still result in a waste of police resources. e
prevalence of false allegations of rape is at the kernel of a heated debate
among researchers [3]. Methodological problems jeopardized the
validity of the reported prevalence gures [4]. e current estimate on
the prevalence of false allegations of rape is probably a conservative
estimate. It is so because the UCR Program of the FBI revised the
criteria, and since 1994 uses more stringent criteria than before. Now it
has to be established through investigation that no crime had occurred
before an allegation of a crime can be categorized as unfounded. It is
dicult to establish that a crime did not occur, especially in the context
of rape.
A rape scenario as well as a consensual sex scenario usually only
involves two parties. If one of the parties is lying about the true nature
of the scenario it may be dicult to proof that the crime either
occurred or did not occur. If, for instance, the sexual encounter is not
disputed, but only the consensual nature, then other evidence should
discriminate between rape and a consensual scenario. If such evidence
is absent then it is impossible to discriminate between rape and a
consensual scenario. In that case, doubt concerning the true nature of
the allegation will always persist. A false complainant who never
retracts her story of rape, and the investigation does not reveal proof of
its falsity or baselessness, such a case will never be classied as an
unfounded rape allegation following the current criteria of the FBI.
e results of the current study, therefore, seem to indicate that the
new guidelines of the FBI are followed by most or all law enforcement
agencies in the U.S. As a consequence of the new guidelines, law
enforcement agencies do not seem to, routinely, use the unfound
category to clear criminal cases anymore. erefore, a drop in the
number of false and baseless allegations of rape was to be expected
when the new policy was eective.
e variation of prevalence rates
Prevalence rates of false and baseless allegations vary across oence
types. e prevalence rate of false and baseless allegations of rape is
higher than the prevalence rate of most other oence types. In most
oences where insurances could cover the damage of the oence, such
as the, prevalence rates of false and baseless allegations are more than
ve times smaller than the prevalence rates of false and baseless
allegations of rape. e only comparable prevalence rate of false and
baseless allegations is the prevalence of false and baseless allegations of
burglary. One explanation might be that some false allegations were
caused by insurance fraud.
False and baseless allegations of murder are also higher than false
and baseless allegations of most other oence types. But, it is still
almost halve of the prevalence of false and baseless allegations of rape
or burglary. A high prevalence rate of false and baseless allegations of
murder may seem surprising at rst, especially for those who are
unfamiliar with the legal system of the United States. e high
prevalence rate of murder is explained by the diversity of false and
baseless allegations of murder. An evident false allegation of murder is
an allegation of murder on for instance a neighbor, and police
investigation reveals that the neighbor is still alive. Another, far more
frequent, false or baseless allegation of murder is the allegation in
which the police investigation revealed that the killing was justied by
law in the United States. One example is killing in self-defence, but
another example might be the killing of a burglar in your home; a
sometimes justied act in the United States [20]. But, also cases in
Citation: De Zutter A, Horselenberg R, van Koppen PJ (2017) The Prevalence of False Allegations of Rape in the United States from 2006-2010.
J Foren Psy 2: 119. doi:10.4172/2475-319X.1000119
Page 4 of 5
J Foren Psy, an open access journal
ISSN:2475-319X
Volume 2 • Issue 2 • 1000119
which police ocers kill someone in the line of duty are rst classied
as allegations of murder until the police investigation reveals that the
killing was justied [20].
Limitations
e most important limitation of the current study is the process of
data gathering. Since we did not gather data ourselves we cannot
ascertain the process of data gathering. We cannot check, for instance,
how strict the guidelines were followed by all the dierent agencies in
the United States. Nor can we exclude any mistakes made by the police
ocers who entered or delivered data. e motivation of the police
agencies to report valid and reliable gures was also not under our
control. Finally, another important limitation of the current study is
that not all agencies in the USA contribute to the UCR which could
compromise our results, and could damage the generalisability of our
results.
Conclusion
We reported recent gures on the prevalence of false and baseless
allegations. Based on the current ndings, we can conclude that at least
1% of all allegations are false or baseless. e most prominent types of
false and baseless allegations are false and baseless allegations of
burglary, and false and baseless allegations of rape. False or baseless
allegations of burglary result in a waste of valuable police resources,
and could lead to unjustied insurance expenses which could lead to
higher insurance policies for honest people. False allegations of rape,
however, are more harmful. Besides wasting police time, they cause
public unrest, and innocents could be convicted or suspected of a rape
they did not commit. It seems imperative to dierentiate false from
true allegations of rape at an early stage of the police investigation. A
practical tool to do so might therefore be at place. To date, an objective,
reliable, and valid measurement tool, however, is lacking, and should
be the focus of future studies. Based on the results of the current study,
the statement by Spohn et al. [19] that “One conclusion that can be
drawn from these data is that the LAPD is clearing sexual assault cases
as unfounded appropriately most, but not all, of the time” (p: 173)
could maybe be generalized to the U.S. as a whole. us, it seems
warranted to conclude that the new guidelines are followed not only by
the LAPD, but by almost all law enforcement agencies in the US.
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J Foren Psy 2: 119. doi:10.4172/2475-319X.1000119
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J Foren Psy, an open access journal
ISSN:2475-319X
Volume 2 • Issue 2 • 1000119